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LABOUR HUNG CONSERVATIVE WIN PARLIAMENT WIN The bottom the demonstrates the a national net movement of swingometer effect of If Labourcan Ifthe swing Is more than four per The pointer starts In the centre of votes betweenConservative and Labour. If Labour advances, the moves to pointer average a swing cent but less than eight per cent, at zero per cent, which the to a cent should mean retains his overall left. Up four per swing John Major of more than the pendulum's arm points to represents the position at majority. If the swing is more than four per cent but less than eight per cent, a hung eight per cent, hung-Parllamentterritory. If all Parliament's dissolution, where Parliament is probable. If it is over eight per cent, Labour should gain an overall the party will be regions move Inthe same way, the Tories had an overall majority majority. The upper part of the swingometer shows all the marginals that Labour on Its way to the Conservatives will probably of 89. If It swings anything up to needs to take from the Tories, arranged by region (see vertical scale) and according to forming lose their majority. If Labourgets four per cent, John Majorshould the swing needed for them to change hands (bottom scale). The one blue seat in the top government In Its a swing of around six per cent, It retain his majority - so long as row betweenfour and five per cent is Edinburgh Pentlands, held bytransport secretary own right, with an should become the largest party the pattern of voting Is similar Malcolm Rifkind. If Labour gets a 4.5 per cent swing there, it willtake the seat. overall majority - but without an overall majority across the country BAC KINT Wping Remember the swingometer? A high-tech version of the election-night gadget returns on Thursday to predict the winners and iosers in the closest of polls. BBC presenter Peter Snow describes to William Greaves the political pendulum's colourful comeback It somehow man- not so much a national aged to be baffling, servant whose policies instructive, en- and power were under re- lightening and en- view but merely a rat- tertaining all at the race punter whose same time, and it fortune depended on a grew out of the 1959 Gen- twitch of the perfidious eral Election to become pendulum. television's most beloved The man who con- and enduring gadget. For trolled it on that grand millions of red-eyed view- opening night was its in- ers, that night of 33 years ventor, David Butler, Fel- ago proved to be a pretty low of Nuffield College, unexciting event. From Oxford, who had already the first handful of results given a brief demonstra- the outcome was never in doubt, and prime tion of the revolutionary device during the 1955 minister Harold Macmillan duly improved on election (see panel left). But it was during Harold an already comfortable position to win an over- Wilson's narrow victory of 1964 that it was all majority of 99. It will go down in history, really turned into a piece of broadcasting folklore however, as the election which gave birth to the by the ebullient Robert McKenzie, who managed swingometer. And on Thursday night, after to ascribe to its cardboard arm an almost men- Britons have once again cast their votes, it makes acing clairvoyance. THE FATHEROF SWING its glorious comeback. Now established as one of television's most David Butler became known as "the the What it to the held father of swing" when he first Ah, swingometer! joy brought unlikely stars, swingometer sway showed how a switch of political al- those of us who had hitherto supposed that gen- throughout Wilson's follow-up win in 1966, took legiance measured in one seat could eral elections were the deadly serious centre- time out for Edward Heath's triumph of 1970 be used to predict the outcome of a point of the whole awesome democratic process. but re-emerged for both the 1974 contests. Its general election. Dr Butler, a Fel- New such "If this 5.2 is main- was tested to the limit low at Nuffield College, Oxford, phrases as, swing prescience then by a cou- demonstrated the swingometer during BBCtv's cov- tained, then Fred Bloggs looks to be in ple of cliffhangers which saw first of the it was erage 1955 election. Four years later, danger in Cleckheaton..." became part Edward Heath lose his overall majority used throughout the night, with Butler at the con- of the big-night vocabulary. Suddenly, and then Wilson win the replay by a trols. He will be covering his 13th general election when he joins Radio 4 presenter Brian Redhead. the up-and-coming Bloggs, junior min- whisker. It swung into action for the ister for something-or-other, had become last time in 1979 on the night Margaret Thatcher began her reign. Bob, as would change the colour of a lot of the seats." we were all allowed to know him, died two years As he sits at the console, Snow will be in total later. Either out of respect for its genial inventor, control of his selection of highly-coloured dis- or because the emergence of the Liberal-SDP play information - instead of having to wait Alliance made the next election less of a two- while appropriate graphics are screened to horse race, or perhaps because no one else could match his words. And another departure from control its capricious moods, the much-loved previous BBC general election-night practice swingometer vanished from the political scene. will mean that his electronic brainpower will be Now, after 13 augmented by the years of hibernation, results of a nation- no television come- wide exit poll. "We back performance will be talking to will be more nostal- 14,000 people as gically or warm- they leave their heartedly received. polling stations in And my, how it's 100 key constituen- grown! This time, its cies. We will not be 20ft-tall arrow is attempting to fore- connected to some cast the winner of L20,000 of com- any specific seat, but puter technology, the results will be whose information fed into the comput- bank has been crammed with every minute er to enable it to start making predictions about detail it needs to disentangle a sea of statistics the eventual overall outcome right from the word and point to the likely winners and losers. Re- go - and not to have to wait until the very first placing the bubbling McKenzie at the controls is result comes in. Of the Government front- 53-year-old Newsnight presenter Peter Snow. benchers, for example, David Mellor, chief sec- "What the old swingometer showed was how retary to the Treasury, needs only a 7.3 per cent many seats would change hands if a certain swing against him to lose Putney. Now an exit swing was maintained," says Snow. "It was a poll swing of around that figure would not seal clear and expressive way of demonstrating how his fate, but would signal that his seat would be changes in voting pattern and seats were relat- an exciting one to watch." ed. But what we are now doing is using com- puter graphics to allow viewers to see which WhilePeter Snow battles particular seats would change colour at a certain with the mathematics, swing of the pendulum and, in some instances, David Dimbleby will which candidates would manage to hold on to front the BBC's cover- their seats in defiance of that national swing. age of Election 92 and, "As we focus on 200 marginal seats, the at his side, John Curtice colours of the seats really will change on the of Strathclyde University will be on hand to an- screen as I move the pendulum. Mr Kinnock alyse local factors behind some of the more sig- needs to change 94 seats from blue or yellow to nificant results: a lot of repossessions, large eth- red in order to win the election with an overall nic vote, suspicion of a tactical vote, and so on. majority. I will be able to show people very vivid- Over in the swingometer comer, Peter Snow's ly how a four per cent swing will turn just face positively glows with merriment as he re- enough of these blue MPs red for him to dislodge veals the final toy in his armament. "We have got Mr Major from his overall majority, and how an the front door of No 10 on screen and, whenever eight per cent swing - right across to the left - the computer comes up with a really significant will give him an outright victory." result, it will swing open to reveal the face of its Snow is that rarest of journalists - a man who likely winning occupant. I mean, if Labour wins gets a self-confessed buzz out of playing with Norwich North, which happens to be the critical computer graphics. No one knows better than he 94th in the list of Conservative-held marginals, that elections are not only won and lost on na- then the door will open automatically and behind tional swings, but are also fought over a mine- it will be Mr Kinnock." At this stage in the pre- field of imponderables. "By pressing one button match conjecture, a wicked glint comes into his I can show a forecast of the colour changes based eye. "Of course, it could be opening and shutting on the results so far declared," he says, "and by all night - with a different face behind it each pressing others I can concentrate on the picture time.