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Uppsala Universitet UPPSALA UNIVERSITY Department of Government The impact of ethnic homogeneity on voter turnout in Sri Lanka- a study of voter turnout at district level Political Science C, Thesis 10 p. Autumn 2007 Author: Erika Beckman Supervisor: Hans Blomkvist Department of Government Uppsala University, Sweden Word count: 13 999 Pages: 37 1 Table of Contents 1. Introduction 3 1.1 Background 3 1.2 Problematization of the issue 4 1.3 Aim of the paper 5 1.4 Prior research on ethnicity and voter turnout 5 1.5 Theoretical approach 9 1.5.1 Choice of theory and study object 9 1.5.2 Theoretical delimitations 9 1.6 Hypothesis 10 1.7 Critique of sources 12 2. Method 13 2.1 The case study 13 2.1.1 Selecting the case of Sri Lanka 13 2.2 Operationalization of the theory 13 3. Discussion of results 15 3.1 Population and ethnicity in Sri Lanka 15 3.2 Voter turnout in Sri Lanka 19 3.3 Comparison population and voter turnout in Sri Lanka 25 3.3.1 Comparison Sinhalese population concentration and VT figures 23 4. Conclusions and discussion 33 4.1 Conclusion of the comparison 33 5. Bibliography 36 5.1 Printed sources 36 5.2 Internet sources 37 5.3 Other sources 37 5.4 List of interviewees 37 6. Appendices 38 2 1. Introduction 1.1 Background Sri Lanka is an island that has been plagued by tensions and ethnic conflict for decades. There are scholars who claim that the ethnic rivalries go back many centuries. The most violent period of the ethnic conflict in Sri Lanka’s recent history erupted in 1983 with the outbreak of anti-Tamil riots which led to repercussions not seen before. Since then, various attempts at peace negotiations have been made and a ceasefire agreement was signed in 2002, but despite this ethnic rivalries continue to cause instability and insecurity on the island. Sri Lanka has been called “the most complex plural societies in any part of the world” 1. This statement holds true when considering that the island hosts three large ethnic groups; Sinhalese, Tamils and Muslims, and four of the world’s major religions; Buddhism, Hinduism, Islam and Christianity. With such a composition and extensive influence from three colonial powers- the Portuguese, the Dutch and the British, who first entered the island in the 16th century and introduced different administrative and judicial systems, religious practices and singled-out different ethnic groups to form an elite rule on the island during their colonial reign, it is undoubted that the implications can still be felt today. Suffrage was introduced in Sri Lanka in 1931. This made Sri Lanka the first British colony to enjoy the privilege of universal suffrage2, only two years after Britain itself had achieved universal suffrage after decades of agitation and pressure from popular groups. This was highly revolutionary and set into the colonial context it was yet to take another 21 years before the Crown colony India held its first election. Since 1931, 20 legislative and presidential elections and one referendum have been held in Sri Lanka, where voter turnout figures has gone from 64% in 1947 to an average participation of 75% in the 21st century3. Though voter turnout tends to be steadily declining in most democratic countries4, Sri Lanka has maintained high turnout results in all national elections. However, the high voter turnout figure can be deceptive unless you look deeper into the actual distribution of figures between different districts on the island as they vary greatly. There are certain areas within districts that have had none or one voter cast their votes on election day5. This is of interest as it signifies that although voter turnout figures for national elections are generally high when looking at all-island results, there is a deeper truth behind these figures that reveal a number of districts with significantly low turnout figures. The districts where the turnout rate is the lowest and varies the most between national elections is in the Tamil populated districts and districts with other minority groups6. In the last election, a boycott by the Tamil population called upon by LTTE leaders, was said to have been the reason for the extremely low turnout in the Tamil populated districts in the North and East. However, the varying voter turnout figures for different districts gives 1 De Silva; 1998:7. 2 Though it is commonly said that universal suffrage was introduced in Sri Lanka in 1931, the fact is that the Indian Tamils were excluded from this “universal” suffrage, and did not gain the right until the 1940’s when they were granted full citizenship by the Sri Lankan state. Therefore, the first election that the Indian Tamils were able to cast their votes in was in the Parliamentary election of 1947. 3 Results- DVD from Electoral Commission, Sri Lanka. 4 Niemi and Weisberg; 2001:31. 5 1.2% voted in the Jaffna district in the presidential elections of 2005, one person in total from the Kilinochchi area. From comparing data on district level, Results- DVD from Electoral Commission, Sri Lanka. 3 indications that some ethnic groups in Sri Lanka are less inclined to go to the polls on election day and in this context, it is of interest to look deeper into the correlation between ethnic composition in the districts of Sri Lanka and voter turnout. 1.2 Problematizion of the issue Political participation is a broad term and often used to explain how individuals and groups actively engage in governmental and political processes that affect their lives. This includes both involvement in decision-making as well as acts of opposition, voting, standing for office, campaigning for a political party, signing petitions, attending demonstrations etc.7 Voter turnout is just one dimension of political participation but is an indicator that can be measured in terms of percentage and more easily compared to other data. Voter turnout in Sri Lanka is high, with an average election drawing 73,8% of the voting-age population to the polls8, but has fluctuated between the national elections and, more interestingly, varies between the different districts. Sri Lanka is made up of nine regions and 25 administrative districts, where 22 of these are situated in the Sinhala-dominated areas and the three other districts are in Tamil areas. The administrative districts, in turn, are divided into 22 electoral districts for the purpose of administering the elections9. All of Sri Lanka is administered by the Electoral Commission in Colombo. In general, the different ethnic groups inhabit different areas and districts of the island which has deep historical roots connected to the trade routes and ports established by visiting traders, the import of manpower during colonial times and the spawning conflict that has propelled relocation of the population and cemented ethnic segregation. The Sinhalese inhabitants, who number 75% of the nation’s population, mainly inhabit the central and southern parts of Sri Lanka while the Tamils10 live in the North and North East, while the Muslims also reside in the East. It is commonly said that the Tamil population is to a lesser extent taking part in polling on election day11 and therefore it is of interest to see how voter turnout figures correlate to the ethnic composition in the districts and whether it can be established that some ethnic groups are less inclined to vote on election day. Therefore, I will be comparing different sets of data over time, specifically by looking at which districts have a higher voter turnout rate and which ethnic groups has a majority of their population residing in the specific district. The conclusion would be of interest to scholars and practitioners alike, as the different political parties in Sri Lanka under the current “list PR-system”12 are interested to enlist as many voters as possible from across ethnic boundaries and divisions in order to safeguard a position as ruling party/candidate. The same goes for presidential elections. The result would in other words be of importance for all political parties and candidates in Sri Lanka who wish to understand the mechanism of voting behaviour and take steps to improve the political participation in certain geographic areas or 7 http://uk.geocities.com/balihar_sanghera/saspoliticalparticipation.html 8 International IDEA; Turnout in the world- Country by Country performance. http://ww.idea.int/vt/survey/voter_turnout_pop2.cfm 9 For further explanation of the administrative versus electoral districts, see 6.1 Appendix 1. 10 Appx. 16% of the population. 11 Interview with Mr Dissanyake, Electoral Commissioner. 12 List PR-system = List Proportional Representation system. The List PR system is used for parliamentary elections, while the electoral system for president is Single Vote. 4 by certain ethnic groups who are less represented when it comes to voter turnout on national level elections. 1.3 Aim of the paper The aim is to study if the ethnic composition has an impact on voter turnout on district level in Sri Lanka. In other words, the paper sets out to test the theories of Geys and Hill to see whether ethnic homogeneity in a district has an impact on voter turnout and whether a large concentration of minority population in a district impacts turnout figures. I will operationalize Geys and Hill’s theories that voter turnout is higher in areas of ethnic homogeneity and lower in areas where there is a larger concentration of minority population, by posing two hypothesises and seeing if they can be verified by the data gathered. This will be done by comparing figures of ethnic composition and voter turnout on district level, in order to see how the ethnic composition in the districts correlates to patterns of voter turnout and concluding whether this can be said to be an explaining factor.
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