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CTC Sentinel Objective AUGUST 2009 . VOL 2 . ISSUE 8 COMBATING TERRORISM CENTER AT WEST POINT CTC SentineL OBJECTIVE . RELEVANT . RIGOROUS Contents The Philippines’ Continued FEATURE ARTICLE Success Against Extremists 1 The Philippines’ Continued Success By Peter Chalk Against Extremists By Peter Chalk REPORTS 5 The Evolving Role of Uzbek-led Fighters in Afghanistan and Pakistan By Jeremy Binnie and Joanna Wright 7 Tribal Dynamics of the Afghanistan and Pakistan Insurgencies By Hayder Mili and Jacob Townsend 11 A Review of Reconciliation Efforts in Afghanistan By Joanna Nathan 14 The Absence of Shi`a Suicide Attacks in Iraq By Babak Rahimi 17 Factors Affecting Stability in Northern Iraq By Ramzy Mardini 20 Training for Terror: The “Homegrown” Case of Jami`at al-Islam al-Sahih By Jeffrey B. Cozzens and William Rosenau Humvees with U.S. soldiers on board secure a bombing site in Jolo in the southern Philippines on July 7, 2009. - STR/AFP/Getty Images 24 Recent Highlights in Terrorist Activity he extremist environment This article will outline the domestic 28 CTC Sentinel Staff & Contacts in the Philippines continues security environment in the Philippines to improve. The main by examining the current state of three organizations that have main organizations: the Abu Sayyaf Ttraditionally been at the forefront of Group,1 the Moro Islamic Liberation national security concern are either Front (MILF)2 and the New People’s exhibiting a continued readiness Army (NPA).3 The article will then to engage in negotiations with the discuss the main parameters of U.S. government in Manila or are variously suffering from battlefield losses, criminalization or reductions in 1 The ASG is a self-styled Moro jihadist group that seeks About the CTC Sentinel the creation of an exclusive Islamic State of Mindanao The Combating Terrorism Center is an popular support. Although there has been an increase in kidnappings by (MIS). It has been tied to regional and international ter- independent educational and research rorist movements, including Jemaah Islamiya and al- institution based in the Department of Social the Abu Sayyaf Group (ASG), this is actually a sign of the group’s weakness Qa`ida. Sciences at the United States Military Academy, 2 The MILF is the largest Moro insurgent group in Mind- West Point. The CTC Sentinel harnesses and declining capabilities. Moreover, the United States and Australia remain anao. For much of its existence the movement sought the the Center’s global network of scholars and creation of an independent Muslim state in Mindanao, practitioners to understand and confront committed to underwriting assistance packages to the Armed Forces of the but moderated its demands to enhanced autonomy fol- contemporary threats posed by terrorism and lowing the death of Hashim Salamat—the MILF’s hard other forms of political violence. Philippines (AFP) and the Philippine National Police (PNP), both of which line founder—in 2003. The group is currently engaged in continue to make steady advances in the sporadic peace negotiations with Manila. 3 The NPA acts as the military arm of the Communist The views expressed in this report are those of struggle against violent extremism. the authors and not of the U.S. Military Academy, Party of the Philippines (CPP). Its stated aim is to replace the Department of the Army, or any other agency the existing Filipino political and economic structure of the U.S. Government. with a socialist system through a protracted strategy of people’s war. 1 AUGUST 2009 . VOL 2 . ISSUE 8 and Australian security assistance to factors accounting for Bogota’s success latitude to engage in disruptive attacks the Philippines and identify some of the in infiltrating the highest echelons of than they otherwise might enjoy. main shortfalls that continue to hamper the Revolutionary Armed Forces of the overall effectiveness of Manila’s Colombia.9 As with the ASG, there are also signs of counterterrorism efforts. an increasing criminal element creeping Moro Islamic Liberation Front into the Front’s activities. The MILF’s Abu Sayyaf Group As of April 2009, the MILF’s overall current budget is estimated to be in the Despite occasional bombings and strength remained at levels on par vicinity of Ps107 million (approximately attacks against infrastructure, the with those of 2007-2008. According $2.2 million), of which Ps100.8 million ASG’s current threat level is the lowest to the AFP, the group could count on (approximately $2.1 million) comes from in years. As of April 2009, the group 11,600 members equipped with around extortion.13 As in the case of the ASG, was estimated to have no more than 100 7,700 weapons.10 The overwhelming it is more manageable to deal with an hardcore militants (and less than 350 majority of the MILF believe that a final economically-motivated group than one weapons) at its disposal, supplemented peace settlement and autonomous rule driven by strict ideological convictions. by at most 200 part-time militants in Mindanao is still possible; indeed, The MILF’s increase in criminal activity and maybe 30 foreign terrorists in June 2009 the Front’s political could work to the direct advantage of (predominantly Indonesians associated the AFP. with Jemaah Islamiya’s “pro-bombing” faction).4 According to sources in the “The ASG has been New People’s Army PNP, these members are split between reduced to isolated pockets In June 2009, the AFP estimated at least 18 separate cells across Sulu, the NPA’s combined strength to be Basilan and Zamboanga and lack any of militants scattered 4,874 guerrillas organized across sense of organizational, much less across the outlying islands approximately 60 fronts. This is the operational, cohesion.5 The ASG has yet lowest number of guerrillas since to select an amir (leader) that is accepted of Mindanao with no the mid-1980s.14 In addition, the by the entire group. Radullah Sahiron is apparent leader or unified organization is finding it difficult the closest person to such an individual. to procure advanced weaponry, He is old, however, and suffers from ideological agenda to tie which is greatly hindering its ability acute diabetes and commands the the group together.” to undertake concerted operations loyalty of only approximately 60% of against the military.15 Reflective of the group’s fighters.6 these dynamics, the majority of the communist campaign now takes the The ASG’s return to criminal enterprise, spokesman, Ghazali Jaafar, specifically form of political (as opposed to military) namely kidnapping for ransom, reflects described the peace process environment struggle, consuming as much as 90% of the relative decline of the group and its as “getting better,” confirmed that the movement’s overall resources.16 In capacity to perpetrate violence against the group accepted the government’s broad terms, the main priorities appear the state. Western analysts in Manila disarmament, demobilization and to be solidifying popular support, believe this reflects a diminution in reintegration policy and voiced hope generating income and de-legitimating the group’s ideological focus with the that negotiations would resume soon.11 the Philippine state (through the so- main aim now being purely financial called “oust Arroyo campaign”).17 in nature (allegedly to underwrite the The rejectionist faction within the campaigns and agendas of co-opted local MILF remains at 30%, or approximately Problematically for the NPA, however, politicians).7 The AFP and PNP both 3,400 of the group’s total membership. its political wings—the Communist view this development as “positive” It presents a challenge to any peace deal. Party of the Philippines (CPP, which in the sense that cadres motivated by The mainstream elements cooperating is illegal) and the National Democratic money are far easier to bribe and “turn” with the government, however, will Front (NDF, which is legal)—are than those who remain firm in their likely inhibit any splinter faction’s encountering significant challenges in religious convictions.8 Certainly this ability to disrupt a final settlement.12 attracting high-caliber recruits from has been the experience in Colombia Obviously the rejectionists will need traditional hubs such as the University and is considered to be one of the main to be monitored—3,400 militants of the Philippines (UP), Ateneo de could cause considerable instability— Manila and Delasalle. Academics in 4 Personal interviews, AFP officials, Manila, June 2009. although with the mainstream of the Manila believe these difficulties reflect 5 Personal interviews, PNP officials, Manila, June 2009. MILF cooperating, they will have less 6 Personal interviews, AFP officials, Zamboanga, Janu- 13 Personal interviews, AFP officials and Philippine ary 2008. See also Peter Chalk, Angel Rabasa, William 9 Personal interviews, Colombian police officials, Bo- analysts, Manila, June 2009. Rosenau and Leanne Piggott, The Evolving Terrorist gota, March 2009. 14 “Current NPA Strength Down to Lowest Level Since Threat to Southeast Asia: A Net Assessment (Santa Monica, 10 Personal interviews, AFP officials, Manila, June the ‘80s,” Philippine Star, June 28, 2009. CA: RAND Corporation, 2009), p. 52. 2009. 15 Personal interview, Philippine academic, June 2009. 7 Personal interview, Western official, Manila, June 11 “Mindanao: Peace Process Getting Better: MILF,” Sun 16 Personal interviews, PNP officials and Philippine aca- 2009. Star, March 9, 2009. demics, June 2009. 8 Personal interviews, AFP and PNP officials, Manila, 12 Personal interviews, AFP and PNP officials, Manila, 17 Personal interviews, PNP officials, Manila, June 2009. June 2009. June 2009. See also Chalk et al., pp. 40-42. See also Chalk et al., p. 86. 2 AUGUST 2009 . VOL 2 . ISSUE 8 dramatic reductions in tuition assistance regards as a purely domestic issue—and well as between Moro and communist packages to the extent that it is now awareness that any such involvement militants (in areas where they operate only the middle and upper classes who would significantly complicate the in close proximity to each other).
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