Nicholas Eberstadt Henry Wendt Scholar in Political Economy American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research 1150 Seventeenth Street, N.W. Washington, D.C. 20036 Tel (202) 862-5825 Fax (202) 862-4877 Email [email protected]
CAREER
1999- Henry Wendt Chair in Political Economy, American Enterprise Institute
1985-1999 Visiting Scholar American Enterprise Institute
1980-2002 Visiting Fellow Harvard Center for Population and Development Studies
1979-1980 Visiting Research Fellow Rockefeller Foundation
1976-1979 Teaching Fellow Harvard University
EDUCATION
1995 Ph.D., Political Economy and Government, Harvard University
1979 M.P.A., Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University
1978 M.Sc., London School of Economics (Social Planning for Developing Countries)
1976 A.B., Harvard College (Economics), Magna Cum Laude
ACADEMIC
2008 Bosch Fellow in Public Policy, American Academy in Berlin
1999 Visiting Fellow, University of Washington, Seattle
1988-1990 Adviser, Catholic University Institute on Health and Development
1979-1981 Associate, Harvard Center International Affairs
1976-1979 Taught courses in population and natural resources, agricultural economics, social science and social policy, and problems of policy making in less developed countries; Harvard University
NON-ACADEMIC
2006- 2009 Member, Presidents Commission on Bioethics
2005- 2008 Member, Presidential HELP Commission
2003- Member, Publication Committee, Public Interest magazine
2003- Member, Overseers’ Committee to Visit the Harvard School of Public Health
2003- Member, Board of Scientific Counselors, National Center for Health Statistics
2003- Advisory Board, U.S.–China AIDS Foundation
2002- Founding Member, U.S. Committee for Human Rights in North Korea
2002- 2007 Member, Advisory Committee for Voluntary Foreign Aid (ACVFA), United States Agency for International Development
1999- Commissioner, CSIS Global Aging Initiative
1998- Advisory Board, Korea Economic Institute
1997- Member, Board of Advisors, Environmental Literacy Council
1996- Member, Council on Foreign Relations
1996- Member, Board of Advisors, National Bureau of Asian Research, Seattle, Washington
1996- 1998 Member, CSIS Taskforce on the Future of the World Bank
1996 Consultant, Congressional Budget Office
1995- 1997 Panel Member, Independent Commission on Environmental Education
1995- Board of Advisors, Statistical Assessment Service (STATS), Washington, D.C.
1992- 1993 Member, Advisory Board, World Development Report, World Bank, Washington, D.C.
1992- Research Associate, National Bureau of Asian Research, Seattle, WA
1989- Consultant, U.S. Bureau of the Census
1988- 1989 Consultant, Center for the Study of Foreign Affairs, Department of State, Washington, D.C.
1987- 1988 Consultant, Working Seminar on the American Family and Welfare Policy, Washington, DC
1987 National Endowment for Democracy observer, Republic of Korea Presidential Elections
1986- 1988 Member, Shadow Committee on Development, Washington, DC
1986 Consultant, Legal Services Corporation
1985- 1990 Term member, Council on Foreign Relations
1985- 1990 Member, Board of Advisers, Overseas Development Network
1983 Awardee, Lehrman Institute, Visiting Fellowship
1982- Consultant, World Bank
1981- 1982 Consultant, United States State Department
1981- 1990 Charter member, Committee on the Free World
1978- 1979 Consultant, U.S. Agency for International Development (Population)
1975 International Rice Research Institute, the Philippines, Rice Training Program
LANGUAGES
German: good reading, fair speaking French: fair reading, some speaking Spanish: some reading, some speaking
SELECTED PUBLICATIONS
Books:
Russia’s Peacetime Demographic Crisis: Dimensions, Causes, Implications (Seattle, WA: The National Bureau of Asian Research, 2010)
Policy and Economic Performance in Divided Korea during the Cold War Era: 1945-91 (Washington, DC: AEI Press, 2010)
The Poverty of “The Poverty Rate”: Measure and Mismeasure of Material Want in Modern America (Washington, DC: AEI Press, 2008)
The North Korean Economy: Between Crisis and Catastrophe (Piscataway, NJ: Transaction Books: 2007)
A New International Engagement Framework for North Korea (Washington, DC: Korean Economic Institute: 2004) (eds. Dr. Ahn Choong-yong, Dr. Nicholas Eberstadt, and Dr. Lee Young-sun)
Health and the Income Inequality Hypothesis, with Sally Satel (Washington, DC: AEI Press, 2004)
Faultlines in China’s Economic Terrain (Santa Monica, CA: RAND, 2003) (Charles Wolf, Jr., K.C. Yeh, Benjamin Zycher, and Sung-Ho Lee, coauthors)
Korea’s Future and the Great Powers (Seattle, WA: University of Washington, 2001) (Richard J. Ellings, co-editor)
Prosperous Paupers & Other Population Problems (New Brunswick: Transaction Publishers, 2000)
The End of North Korea (Washington, DC: AEI Press, 1999)
The Tyranny of Numbers (Washington, DC: AEI Press, 1995)
Korea Approaches Reunification (Armonk, NY: M.E. Sharpe, 1995)
The Population of North Korea, with Judith Banister (Berkeley, CA: University of California Institute of East Asian Studies, 1992)
The Poverty of Communism (New Brunswick: Transaction Books, 1988; paperback edition, 1990)
Foreign Aid and American Purpose (Washington, DC: AEI Press, 1988)
Fertility Decline in Less Developed Countries (Editor) (Praeger Books, 1981).
Poverty in China (International Development Institute, 1979)
Monographs:
Europe’s Coming Demographic Challenge: Unlocking the Value of Health. (Washington, D.C.: AEI Press, December 2007), with Hans Groth.
The Graying of the “Emerging Markets”: Population Aging in Today’s Low-Income Countries (Seattle, WA: National Bureau of Asian Research, June 2006)
Behind the Veil of a Public Health Crisis, HIV/AIDS in the Muslim World, (Seattle, WA: National Bureau of Asian Research, June 2005), with Laura M. Kelly.
Population Power: Another Transatlantic Divergence?, AEI European Outlook, November 1, 2004.
On the Frontline of an Epidemic: The Need for Urgency in Russia’s Fight Against AIDS (Report of the U.S.-Russia Working Group Against HIV/AIDS; coauthor) (New York, NY: Transatlantic Partners Against AIDS and EastWest Institute, September 2003).
Socio-Economic Development in Divided Korea: A Tale of Two “Strategies.” Harvard Center for Population and Development Studies, Working Paper Series, Vol. 11, No. 5 (April 2001).
Comparing the U.S. and Soviet Economies: The Airlie House Conference. Volume I: Total Output and Consumption. AEI Press, 2000, with Johnathan Tombes.
Comparing the US and Soviet Economies: The Airlie House Conference. Volume II: Military Expenditures, Capital Goods, and Selected Sectors. AEI Press, 2000, with Johnathan Tombes.
Political, Economic and Social Implications of Eastern Asia’s Population Prospects to the Year 2015, Harvard Center for Population and Development Studies, Working Paper Series, No. 99.16 (December 1999)
What if it’s a World Population Implosion?: Speculations About the Demographics of Global Depopulation, Harvard Center for Population and Development Studies, Working Paper Series, No. 98.04 (March 1998)
Demographic Shock in Eastern Germany, 1989-1993, Harvard Center for Population and Development Studies, Working Paper Series, No. 94.02 (February 1994)
Health and Mortality in Eastern Europe: Retrospect and Prospect, Harvard Center for Population and Development Studies, Working Paper Series No. 94.01 (January 1994)
Divided Korea: Demographic and Socio-Economic Issues for Reunification, with Judith Banister, Harvard Center for Population and Development Studies, Working Paper Series No. 5 (December 1992)
Population and Labor Force in North Korea: Trends and Implications, Harvard Center for Population and Development Studies, Working Paper Series No. 3 (March 1992)
U.S. -Foreign Aid Policy--A Critique (New York: Foreign Policy Association, Headliner Series; Summer, 1990)
Articles, Congressional Testimony, and Book Chapters: 2012
“City Hall’s Health Confusion,” New York Post, January 8, 2012.
2011
“India’s demographic outlook: implications and trends, National Bureau of Asian Research, December 29, 2011.
“Kim Jong Il: Road to Ruin,” Los Angeles Times, December 21, 2011.
“North Korea’s Kim Jong Il failed to prepare his successor,” The Daily Beast, December 20, 2011.
“The death of Kim Jong Il and North Korea’s broken dynasty,” Foreign Affairs, December 20, 2011.
“Fertility decline in the Muslim world: a veritable sea-change, still curiously unnoticed,” AEI Working Paper on Development Policy, December 19, 2011.
Preface for Population Decline and the Remaking of Great Power Politics. Eds. Susan Yoshihara and Douglas A. Sylva. (Washington DC: Potomac Books, 2011).
“Russia’s Demographic Constraints: Dimensions and Strategic Implications.” In Richard Weitz, ed., Can We Manage a Declining Russia?, (Washington, DC: Hudson Institute, December 2011), pp. 118-186, with Apoorva Shah.
“Can we pleeease have a North Korea strategy?” The Enterprise Blog, November 14, 2011.
“Five myths about the world’s population,” Washington Post, November, 6, 2011.
“Are we ready to deal with a *weaker* Russia?” The Enterprise Blog, November 2, 2011.
“The Dying Bear: Russia’s Demographic Disaster,” Foreign Affairs, November/ December 2011.
“Seven Billion Reasons to Celebrate,” The American, November 1, 2011.
“AEI Debate Prep: Europe’s fundamental long-term deficit isn’t measured in euros; it’s measured in babies,” The Enterprise Blog, October 31, 2011.
“Fewer Babies, for Better or Worse” The New York Times Room for Debate. October 16, 2011.
“Should North Korea be Provided with Humanitarian Aid?” Global Asia, September 22, 2011.
“Human Resources and Korean Reunification,” Korea’s Economy, July 21, 2011
“Demography and Japan’s Future.” In McKinsey and Co., ed. Reimagining Japan: A Quest for a Future that Works, (San Francisco: VIZ Media, LLC, July 2011), pp. 82-87.
“What is Wrong with the North Korean Economy,” Caijing, July 1, 2011.
Testimony at Congressional Helsinki Congress: Demographic 2050 Implications for OSCE, June 20, 2011.
“6 Party Trap,” Nautilus Institute, May 19, 2011.
“Western aid: The missing link for North Korea’s economic revival?” AEI Working Paper on Development Policy, April 26, 2011.
“North Korea’s six-party trap,” Washington Post, April 15, 2011.
“Demographic trends cloud China’s long-term economic outlook,” Japan Spotlight, March/April 2011.
“The Demographic Risks to China’s Long-Term Economic Outlook,” Swiss Re Risk Dialogue Magazine, January 2011.
“Global Poverty and its Sad Persistence,” Commentary Magazine, January 2011.
“A State Insult with Chinese Characteristics,” The American, January 26, 2011.
2010
Time for ‘Demographic Stress Tests’” The Wall Street Journal, November 27, 2010, with Hans Groth.
“The Demographic Implosion,” Foreign Affairs, November/December 2010 [published 2 November 2010].
“The Russian Federation: Confronting the Special Challenges of Aging and Social Security Policy in an Era of Demographic Crisis,” International Social Security Review, October/December 2010.
“Russia’s Mortality Mystery,” Current History, October 2010.
“The Global Poverty Paradox,” Commentary Magazine, October 2010.
“Asia-Pacific Demographics in 2010-2040: Implications for Strategic Balance,” in NBR Strategic Asia 2010-11: Asia’s Rising Power and America’s Continued Purpose (ed. Ashley Tellis, Andrew Marble, and Travis Tanner) (Washington, DC: NBR, 2010)
“A Poverty of Statistics,” The American, September 18, 2010.
“Demografischer Stress in der entwickelten Welt [Demographic stress in the developed world],” Neue Zürcher Zeitung, September 4, 2010, with Hans Groth.
“But Optimism on Africa’s Future Seems Risky,” Europe’s World, June 18, 2010.
“Demography and Public Dept: Time for a ‘Demographic Stress Test’ for the Western Economies,” WDA-HSG Discussion Paper Series on Demographic Issues, August 6, 2010, with Hans Groth.
Contributor, “U.S. Policy toward the Korean Peninsula,” Council on Foreign Relations Task Force, June 15, 2010.
“The North Korea Endgame,” Wall Street Journal, April 30, 2010.
“Rethinking HIV/AIDS in South Africa,” AEI Online, April 20, 2010.
“The Russian Federation in an Era of Demographic Crisis,” WDA-HSG Discussion Paper Series on Demographic Issues, April 16, 2010.
“Bad Korea Moves,” New Statesman, January 25, 2010.
“Resist Statist Urges,” Wall Street Journal Asia, January 20, 2010.
“North Korean Money Troubles,” Wall Street Journal Asia, January 11, 2010.
“The North Korean Economy in 2010,” KDI Review of the North Korean Economy, January 1, 2010.
2009
“China's Family Planning Goes Awry,” Far Eastern Economic Review, December 4, 2009.
“Slipping Growth,” The Berlin Journal, November 4, 2009.
“What to Read on North Korean Politics,” Foreign Affairs, October 23, 2009.
“Russia's Great Leap Downward,” The Journal of International Security Affairs, October 2, 2009.
“Help That Helps,” The Weekly Standard, August 31, 2009.
“Too Sick to Prosper,” The WDA-HSG Letters on Demographic Issues, June 24, 2009, with Hans Groth.
“A New Plan for Pyongyang,” Wall Street Journal Asia, June 12, 2009.
“Pyongyang Has a Strategy, Do We?,” Forbes.com, May 26, 2009.
“Russia’s Demographic Disaster,” AEI Russian Outlook. May 2009, with Apoorva Shah.
“Kim’s Crumbling Dynasty,” Wall Street Journal Asia. April 6, 2009.
“Drunken Nation: Russia’s Depopulation Bomb,” World Affairs. April 2, 2009.
“Poor Statistics,” Forbes, March 2, 2009.
“Reflections on the Bush Administration’s North Korea Policy,” World Affairs (Korea), March 2009.
“Letter to the editor: Empower mothers to choose,” The Sunday Monitor (Uganda), February 22, 2009.
“Curb the Population Myth,” International Policy Network, February 7, 2009. (published in several world newspapers including China Post).
“What Went Wrong?: The Bush administration’s failed North Korea policy,” The Weekly Standard, January 26, 2009.
“Obama and Asia,” The Wall Street Journal Asia, January 20, 2009.
“Prepare to Deal with Discontinuities,” Asia Policy, January 1, 2009.
2008
“Foreign Aid: What Works and What Doesn’t,” AEI Development Policy Outlook, October 28, 2008.
“Rising Ambitions, Sinking Population,” The New York Times, October 25, 2008.
“The World Shouldn’t Fear the Collapse of North Korea.” The Wall Street Journal, October 2, 2008.
“The Poverty of the Official Poverty Rate,” The Milken Institute Review, October 2008.
“El próximo desafío demográfico de Europa: la rentabilidad de la salud III,” Revista de Libros (Spain) 138, July/August 2008.
“El próximo desafío demográfico de Europa: la rentabilidad de la salud II,” Revista de Libros (Spain) 137, June 2008, pp. 23-28.
“Europa: Eine schrumpfende Gesellschaft Wie Alternug und Bevölkerungsrückgang neue Chancen eröffnen,” Nephro-News, June 2008, pp. 11-17.
“Aging Gracefully: Where Health is Wealth,” The American, May/June 2008.
“Failures of Inter-Korean Economic Cooperation,” The Korea Herald, May 22, 2008.
“El próximo desafío demográfico de Europa: la rentabilidad de la salud,” Revista de Libros (Spain) 137, May 2008, pp. 33-40, with Hans Groth.
“Should Sex-Selective Abortions Be Outlawed?” CQ Global Researcher, May 2008.
“Dying Russia,” with Hans Groth, Wall Street Journal Europe, April 25, 2008.
“A Diplomatic Charade,” USA Today, January 3, 2008.
“What If? A World without a U.S.-ROK Alliance,” Asia Policy 5, January 2008, with Aaron L. Friedberg, and Geun Lee.
“Economic Implications of a ‘Bold Switchover’ in DPRK Security Policy: Potentialities for Economic Performance in a Still-Socialist North Korea,” in Security Handbook 2008 Emerging Powers in East Asia: China, Russia, and India, ed. Hans J. Geissman (Baden- Baden, Germany: Nomos Publishers, 2008).
2007
“A Chance to Rein in North Korea,” Washington Post, December 26, 2007.
“Toward an America-Free Korea,” Wall Street Journal, October 6, 2007, with Christopher Griffin and Aaron L. Friedberg.
“China’s Future and Its One-Child Policy,” AEI On the Issues, September 19, 2007.
“China’s One-Child Mistake,” Wall Street Journal, September 17, 2007.
A World without the U.S.-ROK Alliance: Thinking about ‘Alternative Futures’, conference summary report prepared by the National Bureau of Asian Research, September 10-11, 2007.
“États-Unis: l’exception démographique. Tendances et implications des evolutions démographiques aux Etats-Unis,” (Demographic Exceptionalism in the United States : Tendancies and Implications) Futuribles 333, September 2007.
“Trumpfkarte Gesundheit Ein unterschätzter Wachstumshebel für Europa,” Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung (Germany), July 11, 2007, with Hans Groth.
“Too Many People?” International Policy Network Paper, July 11, 2007,
“Beware the Population Alarmists,” China Post (Taiwan), June 29, 2007.
“Una sana, vecchia Europa,” IBL Occasional Paper, Instituto Bruno Leoni, June 8, 2007, with Hans Groth.
“L’Europa giochi la carta salute; vantaggi demografici. La longevita agisce sull’istruzione e sul Pil,” Il Sole-24 Ore, June 7, 2007, with Hans Groth.
“Healthy Old Europe,” Foreign Affairs, May/June 2007, with Hans Groth.
“Born in the USA,” The American Interest, Summer 2007.
“America the Fertile,” Washington Post, May 6, 2007.
“Demographic Trends in Northeast Asia: Changing the Realm of the Possible,” Far Eastern Economic Review, May 1, 2007.
“Save the Russians!” Foreign Policy, May 1, 2007.
“Die Gesundheit ist Europas Trumpfkarte: Mit der Aktivierung der fitten Alten gegen die Wachstumsschwache,” Neue Zurcher Zeitung (Switzerland), April 26, 2007, with Hans Groth.
“Healthy Old Europe: Economic Potential,” with Hans Groth, International Herald Tribune, April 19, 2007.
“Déjà Vu: Repeating Past Mistakes with North Korea,” San Diego Union Tribune, February 26, 2007, with Christopher Griffin.
“Saving North Korea’s Refugees,” New York Times, February 19, 2007, with Christopher Griffin.
“How Dubya Stopped Worrying, and Learned to Love the (North Korean) Bomb,” Time Inc. (Asia), February 5, 2007.
Statement to House Committee on Ways and Means Committee, Hearing on the Economic and Societal Costs of Poverty, January 24, 2007.
“‘Demographic Exceptionalism’ in the United States: Tendencies and Implications,” Agir 29, January 2007.
“Critical Cross-cutting Issues Facing Northeast Asia: Regional Demographic Trends and Prospects,” Asia Policy 3, January 2007, pp. 48-56.
“The Global War on Baby Girls,” in The Church, Marriage, & the Family, ed. Kenneth D. Whitehead (South Bend, Indiana: St. Augustine’s Press, 2007).
2006
Nicholas Eberstadt, “Humanitarian Rescue as Prologue to Reunification of a Free Korea,” in Leadership and Vision for Korea: The 2005 Kim Koo International Symposium, ed. Ho Youn Kim (Seoul: Changminsa, 2006), 32-56.
“Commentary: Reflections on ‘The Health Crisis in the USSR,’” International Journal of Epidemiology 35, no. 6 (December 2006).
“Haiti: The Time Bomb in Our Backyard,” New York Daily News, October 23, 2006, with Leo Hindery, William Lane, and Marty LaVor.
“Haiti in Extremis,” The Weekly Standard, October 9, 2006.
“Pyongyang Phooey,” Wall Street Journal, October 5, 2006.
“Why Poverty Doesn’t Rate,” The Washington Post, September 3, 2006.
“The Mismeasure of Poverty,” Policy Review, August/September 2006.
“Economic Implications of a Fundamental Shift in North Korean Security Policy,” with Richard Ellings, Asia Policy 2, July 2006, pp. 2-10.
“The Changing Demographics of the U.S. Southern Security Perimeter,” Comparative Strategy 25, Summer 2006, pp. 81-108.
“Nuclear Shakedown,” Wall Street Journal, July 6, 2006.
“Why Hasn’t North Korea Collapsed,” Korea: The East Asian Pivot, Jonathan D. Pollack, ed., (Newport: Naval War College Press, 2006), pp. 143-170.
“Das betrifft uns alle: Die Bevoelkerung von China, Russland und Indien altert dramatisch,” Frankfurter Allgemeing Zeitung, May 24, 2006.
“Growing Hold the Hard Way,” Policy Review, May 2006.
“How Has North Korea Managed to Survive in the Post-Soviet Era,” in North Korea and Regional Security, Alfonso Ojeda and Alvara Hidalgo eds., (Madrid: Centro Espanol de Investigaciones Coreanas, 2006), pp. 15-44.
The Regional Economic Implications of North Korean Security Behavior—The “Bold Switchover” Concept, conference summary report prepared for the Office of the Secretary of Defense, National Bureau of Asian Research, March 2006.
“Additional or Dissenting Views” in More than Humanitarianism: A Strategic U.S. Approach towards Africa (Washington: Council on Foreign Relations, 2006).
“La Russie: homme malade de l’Europe,” Commentaire, no. 112, Winter 2005/2006.
“Doom and Demography,” Wilson Quarterly 30, no. 1, Winter 2006.
2005 “Additional or Dissenting Views,” in More Than Humanitarianism: A Strategic U.S. Approach Towards Africa (New York: Council on Foreign Relations, 2005), pp. 125-126.
“Old Age Tsunami,” The Wall Street Journal, November 15, 2005
“Humanitarian Rescue as Prologue to Reunification of a Free Korea,” Korea and World Affairs, vol. 29, no. 3, Fall 2005.
“A Skeptical View,” The Wall Street Journal, September 21, 2005
“A Broken Yardstick,” The New York Times, September 9, 2005
“North Korea Triumphs Again in Diplomacy,” AEI On the Issues, August 30, 2005
“White Families are in Trouble, Too,” The Dallas Morning News, August 21, 2005
With Barbara Boyle Torrey, “The North American Fertility Divide,” Policy Review, August/September 2005.
“Demographics and Population Movements in the Russian Far East”, in Russia in Asia—Asia in Russia: Energy, Economics and Regional Relations, Edited by F. Joseph Dresen, Washington, D.C.: Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars; Kennan Institute Occasional Papers Series #292, Winter 2005.
“Aging in Low Income Countries: Looking to 2025,” in The Global Competitiveness Report, 2005-2006 (New York: Palgrave Macmillan, 2005).
“P.T. Bauer on the Population Question,” The Cato Journal, vol. 25, no. 3, Fall 2005.
“Why Hasn’t North Korea Collapsed? Understanding the Recent Past, Thinking About the Future,” in North Korea: The Politics of Regime Survival, Young Whan Kihl and Hong Nack Kim, eds., (Armonk, New York: M. E. Sharpe, 2005), pp. 268-298.
“A Charade Masquerading as Diplomacy,” Time, August 8, 2005.
“North Korea’s Weapons Quest,” The National Interest, Summer 2005.
“The Muslim Face of AIDS,” Foreign Policy, June 28, 2005.
“Bring Them Home,” Weekly Standard, June 6, 2005.
“Behind the Veil of a Public Policy Crisis: HIV/ AIDS in the Muslim World,” NBR Special Report, June 2005, co-authored with Laura Kelley.
“Union of a Certain Age: Can a graying Europe Be a Powerful Europe?” The Milken Institute Review, May 12, 2005.
“Rethinking the Population Problem,” The Public Interest, April 20, 2005.
“Russia in Asia, Asia in Russia: Energy, Economics, and Regional Relations,” Kennan Institute, April 2005.
“Pyongyang’s Option: ‘Ordinary’ Stalinism,” Far Eastern Economic Review, March 21, 2005.
“What Surprise,” Washington Post, March 1, 2005.
House of Representatives Congressional Testimony “Korean Nuclear Challenge,” February 17, 2005.
“Kim’s Nuclear Winter”, Wall Street Journal, February 14, 2005.
“North Korea Crosses the Line”, Wall Street Journal Asia, February 14, 2005.
“Kim-Jong Il’s Nuclear Winter”, Wall Street Journal, February 14, 2005, reprinted in On the Issues, AEI Online, February 18, 2005.
“Russia, the Sick Man of Europe”, The Public Interest, January 1, 2005.
“Russia in Asia—Asia in Russia: Energy, Economics and Regional Relations", Edited by F. Joseph Dresen, Washington, D.C.: Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars; Kennan Institute Occasional Papers Series #292, Winter 2005.
“Russia—The Sick Man of Europe,” The Public Interest, Winter 2005.
2004
“The Bush Administration to Increase Negative Pressure on North Korea,” Foresight Magazine (Japan), November 11–December 17, 2004.
“Tear Down This Tyranny—a Korea strategy for Bush's second term,” Weekly Standard, November 29, 2004.
“No More Mr. Nice Guy,” Time Asia, November 29, 2004.
“Some Strategic Implications of Asian/Eurasian Demographic Trends,” Harvard Center for Population and Development Studies, November 1, 2004.
“The Persistence of North Korea,” Policy Review, No. 127, October/ November 2004.
“Russia’s Demographic Straightjacket,” The SAIS Review of International Affairs, 24, no. 2, Summer-Fall 2004.
Alternative Scenarios for the Korean Peninsula in “Strategic Asia 2004–05: Confronting Terrorism in the Pursuit of Power,” National Bureau of Asian Research, Strategic Asia 2004-200.
“The Russian Federation at the Dawn of the Twenty-First Century: Trapped in a Demographic Straightjacket,” National Bureau of Asian Research, September 2004.
“Russia is Doomed to be the Sick Man of Europe,” The London Times, September 23, 2004, with Hans Groth.
“North Korean Nightmare," The Weekly Standard, August 30, 2004, with Joseph P. Ferguson.
“Gesundheit und Wirtschaft - Der russische Bär ist krank: Angeschlagene Gesundheit gefährdet sein Wachstum" (Health and Economy-The Russian Bear is sick: Compromised Health Endangers His Growth), Neue Zuercher Zeitung, Switzerland's top paper, August 5, 2004, with Dr. Hans Groth of Pfizer, Inc.,
“Four Surprises in Global Demography,” Watch on the West, Foreign Policy Research Institute Publication, July 1, 2004.
“The Dangers of Self-Delusion,” Time Asia, June 14, 2004.
“China’s Unmarriageable Men,” Apple Daily (China), May 25, 2004.
“Bleak Prospects for China’s Aging Population,” Apple Daily (China), May 24, 2004.
“Don’t Believe in North Korea’s Economic Reforms,” Asian Wall Street Journal, April 8, 2004.
“Democracy’s Demons,” Time Asia, March 29, 2004.
“A New Twenty Years Crisis?” North Korea Review, Vol. 1, No. 1, February 27, 2004, with Joseph Ferguson.
“Missing Girls Bode Ill for China In Future Decades,” Asian Wall Street Journal, February 16, 2004.
“The Emptying of Russia,” Washington Post, February 13, 2004.
“La Grande Illusion, Korean Style,” Nautilus Institute DPRK Briefing Book, February 12, 2004.
“Power and Population in Asia,” Policy Review, No. 123, February & March 2004.
“Atomic Shakedown,” Time Asia, January 19, 2004.
“The North Korean Nuclear Crisis: Another “Twenty Years’ Crisis”?”, Institute of Foreign Affairs and National Security publication titled “Coping with Korea’s Security Challenges”, Vol. 2, Future of ROK-US Alliance, January 2004.
2003
“The Shakedown State,” Jerusalem Post, October 30, 2003.
“The Future of AIDS: A Looming Storm,” Market & Demographic Analysis (Shichang yu Renkou Fenxi), Vol. 9, No. 5, September 2003, pp. 61-66. (In Chinese)
“North Korea: The North Korean Nuclear Crisis—On to the Next Level,” chapter for Strategic Asia 2003-2004: Fragility and Crisis. Richard J. Ellings, Aaron L. Friedberg and Michael Wills, eds. (Seattle, WA: National Bureau of Asian Research, 2003).
“Demographic Trends: Strategic Implications of Asian Demographic Trends,” chapter for Strategic Asia 2003-2004: Fragility and Crisis. Richard J. Ellings, Aaron L. Friedberg and Michael Wills, eds. (Seattle, WA: National Bureau of Asian Research, 2003).
“Tables: Southeast Asian Demographics at a Glance,” Georgetown Southeast Asia Survey. Catharin Dalpino and David Steinberg, eds. (Washington, DC: Asian Studies Program of Georgetown University, 2003).
“A Deal With North Korea? Dream On,” Washington Post, August 26, 2003.
“If North Korea Were Really ‘Reforming,’ How Could We Tell—And What Would We Be Able To See?” chapter for Recalibrating the U.S.–Republic of Korea Alliance, Donald W. Boose, Jr., Balbina Y. Hwang, Patrick Morgan, and Andrew Scobell, eds. (Carlisle, PA: Strategic Studies Institute, 2003).
“Corruption in North Korea’s Economy,” Testimony before the U.S. Senate, Committee on Foreign Relations, Subcommittee on East Asia, July 31, 2003.
“Epidemic Disease: A Wild Card in China’s Economic Future?” Fault Lines in China’s Economic Terrain. (Santa Monica, CA: RAND, 2003) Charles Wolf, Jr., K.C. Yeh, Benjamin Zycher, and Sung-Ho Lee, coauthors.
“The Threat from North Korea,” Proceedings from the 2002 conference on Missile Defenses and American Security, December 18, 2002. (Washington, D.C.: American Foreign Policy Council, May 2003), pp. 57-61.
“Drugs, Counterfeiting, and Weapons Proliferation: The North Korean Connection.” Testimony before the U.S. Senate, Committee on Governmental Affairs, Subcommittee on Financial Management, the Budget, and International Security, May 20, 2003.
“AIDS: A Wild Card in China’s Economic Future?” Milken Institute Review, Vol. 5, No.4, Second Quarter, 2003, pp. 14-26.
“Communism, Population Aspects of,” Encyclopedia of Population, Paul Demeny and Geoffrey McNicoll, eds. (New York: Macmillian Reference USA, 2003).
“Reckless Driving,” Time Asia, May 12, 2003.
“North and South Korean Economic Ventures,” Encyclopedia of Modern Asia. Karen Christensen and David Levinson, eds. (New York: Berkshire Publishing Group, 2002).
“War Games,” Time Asia, March 24, 2003.
“A Turn of the Screw,” Time Asia, March 3, 2003.
“Bracing for AIDS Crisis in Eurasia,” Los Angeles Times, February 2, 2003.
“Evil, Yes. Genius, No,” Time Asia, January 27, 2003.
2002
“The new face of AIDS,” Newark Star-Ledger, December 22, 2002.
“Seoul on Ice,” Wall Street Journal, December 18, 2002.
“American Security Relations with Northeast Asia After 9-11: The Doughnut and the Hole,” Korea and World Affairs, Vol. 26, No. 3, Fall 2002, pp. 335-356.
“The AIDS pandemic draws a bead on Eurasia,” Asahi Shimbun, November 7, 2002.
“North Korea’s nuclear news,” with Richard Ellings and Joseph Ferguson, United Press International, October 31, 2002.
“Choosing the Sex of Children: Demographics,” Presentation to the President’s Council on Bioethics, October 17, 2002.
“Population, Resources, and the Quest to ‘Stabilize Human Population’,” chapter for Global Warming and Other Eco-Myths, edited by Ronald Bailey. (Roseville, CA: Prima Publishing, 2002).
“Korea,” chapter for Strategic Asia 2002-2003: Asian Aftershocks, edited by Richard J. Ellings and Aaron L. Friedberg, with Michael Wills. (Seattle, WA: National Bureau of Asian Research, 2002).
“The Inside Scoop on Conflict Between Bush and Kim Dae-jung; Extracts from a position paper published by a U.S. North Korean Expert,” Wolgan Chosun, October 2002. (In Korean, translation by Lee Nam-kyu.)
“The Future of AIDS,” Foreign Affairs, Vol. 81, No. 6 (November/December 2002).
“Population Sense and Nonsense,” The Weekly Standard, Vol. 8, No. 1, September 16, 2002.
“Our Other Korea Problem,” The National Interest, No. 69, Fall 2002.
“Revisiting life of scholar who shaped how we think about global bounty,” The Washington Times, June 30, 2002. Review of A Life Against the Grain: the Autobiography of an Unconventional Economist by Julian L. Simon (Transaction Books, 2002).
“If North Korea were Really ‘Reforming,’ How Could We Tell—And What Would We be Able to See?” Korea and World Affairs, Vol. 26, No. 1, Spring 2002.
“U.S. Funding for the U.N. Population Fund: The Effect on Women’s Lives,” Testimony before the Subcommittee on International Operations and Terrorism, Committee on Foreign Relations, U.S. Senate, February 27, 2002.
“A Misleading Measure of Poverty,” The Washington Post, February 17, 2002.
“Bush, Abortion, and Foreign Aid,” The Weekly Standard, February 11, 2002.
2001
“World Population Prospects to the Year 2025,” chapter for Riding the Next Wave, by Thomas J. Duesterberg and Herbert I. London. (Fishers, IN: Hoover Institution, 2001).
“Our Own Style of Statistics: Availability and Reliability of Official Quantitative Data for the DPRK,” Korean Journal of International Studies, Vol. XXVIII, No. 1, Fall/Winter 2001.
“Fanatics and Fertility,” Forbes, November 12, 2001.
“Is There a Population Implosion?” Environmental Change and Security Report, Woodrow Wilson Center, Issue 7, Summer 2001.
“Mexico City Policy: Effects of Restrictions on International Family Planning Funding,” Testimony before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, July 19, 2001.
“The Next Hot Spot,” The Washington Times, May 23, 2001.
“World Population in the 21st Century: Last One Out Turn Off the Lights?” The Family in America-a Publication of The Howard Center for Family, Religion and Society April 2001, vol. 15, no. 4.
“Development, Structure and Performance of the DPRK Economy: Empirical Hints,” Chapter in North Korea in Transition: Prospects for Economic and Social Reform edited by Chang- Ho Yoon and Lawrence J. Lau, (Edward Elgar Books, 2001).
“Too Many People, Too Few Resources,” The Washington Times, April 6, 2001.
“The New Trend: A Population Bust,” The Washington Post, March 18, 2001.
“The American Exception,” The Asian Wall Street Journal, March 9, 2001.
“Media Myth: Too Many People, Too Few Natural Resources,” Chapter in Dollars and Nonsense: Correcting the News Media’s Top Economic Myths edited by Stephen Moore and Richard Noyes, Media Research Center, 2001.
“The Population Implosion,” Foreign Policy, March/April 2001.
“DPRK: Perceptions and Evidence,” Joint U.S. – Korea Academic Studies, 2001, Vol. 11.
“Korean Security: the Millennial Moment,” The Asian Wall Street Journal, January 15, 2001.
2000
“Disparities in Socioeconomic Development in Divided Korea: Indications and Implications,” Asian Survey, November/December 2000, vol. XL, no. 6.
“We’ve Lots of Room for People,” American Enterprise, December 2000.
“Prospects for Inter-Korean Economic Cooperation in the “Sunshine” Era,” Korean and World Affairs, Winter 2000, Vol. 24, no.4.
“Economic Recovery in the DPRK: Status and Prospect,” chapter in International Journal of Korean Studies Fall/Winter 2000, vol. IV, no. 1.
“The Hermit King: Deciphering North Korea’s Economy,” The Asian Wall Street Journal, September 28, 2000.
“Promoting Growth and Prosperity in Sub-Saharan Africa,” chapter in U.S. International Leadership in the 21st Century, edited by W. Bruce Weinrod and Paula J. Dobriansky, The Potomac Foundation, 2000.
“North Korea: Beyond Appeasement,” chapter in Present Dangers: Crisis and Opportunity in American Foreign and Defense Policy, edited by Robert Kagan and William Kristol, Encounter Books, 2000.
“Our Own Style of Statistics: Availability and Reliability of Official Quantitative Data for the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea,” The Economics of Korean Reunification, vol. 5, no. 1, Summer, 2000.
“Pursuit of Prosperity South of the Sahara,” The Washington Times, August 27, 2000.
“A Substitute for World War III?” New York Post, June 25, 2000.
“And the Oscar Goes to…” The Asian Wall Street Journal, June 19, 2000.
“The Old North,” The World & I, June 2000.
“China Trade-Off?” The International Economy, Vol. XIV, No. 3, May/June 2000.
“Russie: l’inévitable déclin?” [in French] Futuribles, No. 252, April 2000.
“Reliability of Official Statistics of North Korea,” [In Korean] The Reunified Korean Economy, April 2000.
“Pyongyang a Seoul searching mission,” The Australian Financial Review, April 14, 2000.
“The Problem Isn’t Overpopulation and the Future May Be Depopulation,” Marriage & Families (Brigham Young University), April 2000.
“World Depopulation: Last One Out Turn Off the Lights,” The Milken Institute Review, First Quarter 2000.
“The End of North Korea,” The International Economy, January/February 2000.
“China’s Population Problem: Problems Ahead,” Problems of Post-Commumism, vol. 47 no.1, January/February 2000.
1999
“Is Russia Too Sick to Matter?" Wall Street Journal (Europe), December 17, 1999.
“World Population Prospects for the Twenty-First Century: The Specter of ‘Depopulation’?”, chapter in Earth Report 2000: Revisiting the True State of the Plant, edited by Ronald Bailey, McGraw-Hill, 1999.
Testimony on North Korea, House International Relations Committee, October 27, 1999.
“The Complexities of Growth: Is Six Billion Cause for Joy or Angst?” Union Tribune, October 17, 1999.
“Six Billion Reasons to Cheer,” The Wall Street Journal, October 12, 1999.
Testimony on Aid to Sub-Saharan Africa, Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Sub-Committee on Africa, October 5, 1999.
“The Most Dangerous Country,” The National Interest, Fall 1999.
“The Road From Berlin,” Chosun Ilbo, September 13, 1999.
“Global Population Might Peak,” Engineering News Review, July 5, 1999.
“Afflicted Russia Deals with Mortal Maladies,” The Washington Times, June 13, 1999.
“Russia: Too Sick to Matter?” Policy Review, June/July, 1999.
“US Aid Feeds North Korea’s Nuclear Designs,” The Wall Street Journal, March 23, 1999.
“Into North Korea’s Appeasement Trap,” The Asian Wall Street Journal, March 23, 1999.
“A Quantitative Comparison of Current Socio-economic Conditions in North and South Korea,” The Economics of Korean Unification, Winter 1999.
“Mis-Planned Parenthood: The Unintended Consequences of China’s One-Child Policy,” The Milken Institute Review, First Quarter 1999.
“ ‘Self-Reliance’ and Economic Decline: North Korea’s International Trade, 1970-1995,” Problems of Post-Communism, Vol. 46, No.1 January-February 1999.
1998
“South Korea’s Economic Crisis and the Prospects for North-South Relations: How Much Has Really Changed?” Korea and World Affairs, Winter 1998.
“The Dangerous Korea,” The National Review, December 31, 1998.
“Population Prospects for East Asia to 2015: Trends and Implications”, Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS), Policy Forum Series Report #4, November 1998.
“Divided Korea’s Financial Ties Unite,” The Washington Times, November 27, 1998.
“ U.S.-North Korea Economic Relations: Indications from North Korea’s Past Trade Performance”, chapter in The U.S. and The Two Koreas, A New Triangle, edited by Tong Whan Park, Lynne Rienner Publishers, Boulder London, 1998.
“ The World Population ‘Crisis’; American Philanthropy’s Long, Fruitless Affair With Population Control,” Philanthropy, November/December 1998.
“A China Primer; Five experts address five key questions which should preoccupy the G7”, Contribution to a “Symposium of Views” in The International Economy, November- December 1998.
“North Korean Economic Conditions and Prospects”, Testimony before The Committee on International Relations, U.S. House of Representatives, September 24, 1998.
“Asia Tomorrow, Gray and Male”, The National Interest, Fall 1998.
“Demographic Clouds on China’s Horizon”, American Enterprise, July/August 1998.
“North Korea’s Unification Policy: 1948-1996”, chapter 11 in North Korean Foreign Relations in the Post-Cold War Era, edited by Samuel Kim, (Oxford University Press, 1998).
“Daniel Patrick Moynihan, Epidemiologist”, chapter 4 in Daniel Patrick Moynihan: The Intellectual in Public Life, edited by Robert Katzmann, (Woodrow Wilson Center Press, 1998).
“The Tragedy of Pyongyang’s ‘Aid-Based’ Policies” The Asian Wall Street Journal, May 20, 1998.
“Korean Unification and the Asian Slump,” The International Economy, March/April 1998.
“North Korea’s Interlocked Economic Crises: Some Indications from ‘Mirror Statistics,’” Asian Survey, March 1998.
“Rationality and Global Environmentalism: Science vs. Scientism” Vital Speeches of the Day, March 1, 1998.
“The DPRK’s International Trade in Capital Goods, 1970-1995: Indications from ‘Mirror Statistics,’” Journal of East Asian Affairs, Winter/Spring 1998.
“Demography and International Relations,” The Washington Quarterly, Spring 1998.
1997
“The Magicians of Kyoto,” The Weekly Standard, December 22, 1997.
“Too Few People?” Prospect, December 1997.
“Prospects for US-DPRK Economic Relations: Indications from North Korea’s Past Trade Performance,” Korea and World Affairs, Winter 1997.
“Trick and Mistreat,” The New Republic, November 10, 1997.
“Long Division: Korea’s past, present, future,” review of The Two Koreas: A Contemporary History by Don Oberdorfer in The Washington Times, November 9, 1997.
“World Population Implosion?” The Wall Street Journal, October 16, 1997.
“The DPRK as an Economy under Multiple Severe Stresses: Analogies and Lessons from Past and Recent Historical Experience” in the Korean Journal of National Unification, October 1997.
“U.N. Development Disasters,” The Washington Times, September 4, 1997.
“The Tyranny of Numbers and the Growth of Government,” Jobs & Capital, Fall 1997.
“World Population Implosion?” The Public Interest, Fall 1997.
“The Impact of the UN’s ‘Development Activities’ on Third World Development,” in Ted Galen Carpenter, ed., Delusions of Grandeur: The United Nations and Global Intervention (Washington, DC: CATO Institute, 1997).
“Mortality and the Fate of Communist States,” in Robert Dorfman, ed., Science with a Human Face (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, l997).
“Daniel Patrick Moynihan, Epidemiologist,” review of Miles to Go: A Personal History of Social Policy, by Daniel Patrick Moynihan in Population and Development Review, June 1997.
“North Korea as an Economy Under Multiple Severe Stresses: Analogies and Lessons from Past and Recent Historical Experience” Communist Economies & Economic Transformation, vol. 9, 1997.
“North Korea’s Economy Under Stresses,” Transition, April 1997.
“The United Nations’ ‘Development Activities’: What Impact on Third World Development?” World Affairs, Spring 1997.
“Hastening Korean Reunification,” Foreign Affairs, March/April 1997.
“Aid harms the hungry,” review of The Road to Hell by Michael Maren The Weekly Standard, March 17, 1997.
“The Impact of U.S. Development Assistance in Africa,” Testimony before the House of Representatives Committee on International Affairs, Subcommittee on Africa, March 13, 1997.
“Starved for Ideas,” (reprint of speech given at World Food Summit in Rome, 11/15/97) Vital Speeches of the Day, March 1, 1997.
“The Great Leap Backward,” review of Hungry Ghosts by Jasper Becker, The New York Times Book Review, February 16, 1997.
Definition of ‘Foreign Aid,’ Encyclopedia of U.S. Foreign Relations, Oxford University Press.
“Le Nord a perdu son pari de l’unité par la guerre,” Geopolitique, Winter 1996/1997.
"First, Do No Harm," Prospect, January 1997.
1996
"Material Progress in Korea Since Partition," in The Wealth of Nations in the Twentieth Century, edited by Ramon Myers (Stanford: Hoover Institution, 1996).
"'National Strategy' in North and South Korea”, NBR Analysis, vol. 7, no. 5, December 1996.
"The Hunger Artists," The Weekly Standard, November 15, 1996.
"North Korea's Reunification Policy: A Long, Failed Gamble," Korea and World Affairs, Fall 1996.
“The Problem with Development Assistance,” The Washington Times, October 7, 1996.
"Korean Unification on Trial," Wall Street Journal, September 9, 1996.
"The Great Chain Letter," (review of How the Coming Collapse of the Middle-Class Welfare State Will Reawaken Values in America, The New York Times Book Review, August 4, 1996.
"Assessing "National Strategy' in North and South Korea, Korea Journal of Defense Analysis, Summer 1996.
“Financial Transfers from Japan to North Korea,” Asian Survey, vol. 36, no. 5, May 1996.
"Down the Rat Hole," Weekly Standard, May 27, 1996.
"The Politics of Overpromise," review of The Good Life and its Discontents, by Robert Samuelson, Washington Times, May 8, 1996.
"North Korea's Pachinko Woes," Asian Wall Street Journal, May 2, 1996.
"A Poor Measurement," Wall Street Journal, April 22, 1996.
"Missing Truth on IMF," Moscow Times, March 13, 1996.
"Birds, bees and budget cuts," Washington Times, March 11, 1996.
"The modern-day paradox of poverty," Washington Times, February 26, 1996.
"Prosperous Paupers and Affluent Savages," Society, January/February 1996.
1995
"China's Trade with the DPRK, 1990-1994: Pyongyang's Thrifty New Patron," Korea and World Affairs, Winter 1995.
"The Soviet Way Of Death,” Global Affairs, Fall 1995.
"'War' Analyst Shows Himself Out Of Touch In Ideas, Facts," Washington Times, November 5, 1995.
"The Premises of Population Policy: A Reexamination," in Michael Cromartie, ed., The Nine Lives of Population Control, (Washington, D.C. Ethics and Public Policy Center and W.B.Eerdmans, 1995).
"The Collapse of Soviet and Russian Trade with the DPRK, 1989-1993," The Korean Journal of National Unification, vol. 4.
"Privatizing the World Bank," The National Interest, Summer 1995.
"Les avatars démographiques de l"homme (et de la femme) soviétique(s)," review of Naître, vivre et mourir en URSS, 1917-1991 by Alain Blum, politique étrangère, Summer 1995.
"Privatize the World Bank," Wall Street Journal, June 26, 1995.
"North-South Economic Cooperation: Rapprochement through Trade," in Kongdan Oh and Craig S. Coleman, Restarting the Peace Process on the Korean Peninsula, (Los Angeles: The Korea Society, 1995).
Review of Population and Development: Old Debates, New Conclusions, and Population Policy: A New Consensus, in Population and Development Review, vol. 21, no. 2, June 1995.
Testimony, House Subcommittee on International Operations and Human Rights, coercive birth control in China, May 17, 1995.
"What is Population Policy," Society, May/June 1995.
"Population, Food, and Income," in The True State of the Planet, Ronald Bailey, ed. (New York, 1995).
"U.N. Summit follies," Washington Times, March 13, 1995.
"UN jamboree cheats the poor," Sunday Times (London Free Press), March 12, 1995.
"...While Washington Dithers," [U.S.-DPRK framework] Asian Wall Street Journal, February16, 1995.
"What Prospects Now for North-Seoul Dialogue?" Seoul Shinmun [in Korean], February 18, 1995.
"The Poor and the Marginalized: Current and Proposed Domestic Policies," in Public Policy and the Restoration of a Civil Society, T. William Boxx and Gary M. Quinlivan, eds. (Latrobe, PA: Center for Economic & Policy Education, 1985).
Testimony on U.S.-DPRK "Framework Document" before Energy and Natural Resources Committee, U.S. Senate, January 19, 1995.
1994
"Inter-Korean Economic Cooperation: Rapprochement Through Trade?" Korea and World Affairs, Winter 1994.
"The Tyranny of Numbers," American Enterprise, Winter 1994.
"Pyongyang Wants to Keep Its Distance," Asian Wall Street Journal, November 24, 1994.
"The Truth About Korea's Economic Miracle, (review of "Troubled Tiger," by Mark Clifford) Wall Street Journal, October 7, 1994.
"North Korea: Reform, Muddling Through, or Collapse," in One Korea? Challenges and Prospects for Reunification, eds. Thomas H.Henriksen and Kyongsoo Lho (Hoover Institution Press, 1994).
"Why Babies die in D.C., part II" (a reply), Public Interest, Fall 1994.
"Health and mortality in Central and Eastern Europe: retrospect and prospect," in The Social Legacy of Communism, eds. James R. Millar and Sharon L. Wolchik, (Woodrow Wilson Center Press and Cambridge University Press, 1994).
"What You Won't Hear at Cairo," Wall Street Journal, September 6, 1994.
"The Population Debate: Science, Guesswork, or Ideology," San Diego Tribune, September 4, 1994.
"The Five Great Myths that Thwart the Experts' Arithmetic," Sunday Times, September 4, 1994.
"Population Issues--Assumptions: Accurate or Not," American Enterprise, September/October 1994.
"Solution for Pyongyang's Nukes: Reunification," Asian Wall Street Journal, August 31, 1994.
"Population, Food, and Income: Global Trends for the Twentieth Century," Project paper for the Competitive Enterprise Institute, August, 1994. (republished as book chapter, see 1995)
Testimony on Population and Development in Subsaharan Africa , Subcommittee on Africa, House Committee on Foreign Affairs, Aug 4, 1994.
"Demographic Disaster: The Soviet Legacy," National Interest, Summer 1994.
"Demographic Shocks in Eastern Germany, 1989-93," Europe Asia Studies, vol 46, no. 3, 1994.
"The colossal failure of U.S. policy toward North Korea," Washington Times, June 9, 1994.
"North Korea: Crazy--or Crazy Like a Fox?" International Economy, May/June 1994.
"Why the Gymnastics to Avoid the Truth?" (An Exchange: Washington as Infant Mortality Capital) Washington Times, May 23, 1994.
Review of William Odom's Trial after Triumph and Steven Mosher's Korea in the 1990s in The Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Sciences, May 1994.
"Rückgang der Bevölkerung in Osteuropa," der überblick [from article in summer National Interest], April 1994.
"Marx and Mortality: A Mystery," New York Times, April 6, 1994.
"Why babies die in D.C.," Public Interest, Spring 1994.
"Demographic Shocks After Communism: Eastern Germany 1989-93," Population and Development Review, March 1994.
"In the District, children without a chance," Washington Times, February 22, 1994.
"Parents and the District's endangered children," Washington Times, February 23, 1994.
"The gorgeous killer," Times Literary Supplement, January 14, 1994.
"Population Policy: Ideology as Science," First Things, January 1994.
1993
Review of Population, Resources and the Environment: The Critical Challenges (New York: UNFPA, 1991) in Population Research and Policy Reviews, vol. 12.
"North Korea: Coping with Economic Decline," Transition, vol. 4, no. 9 (December, 1993).
"Reminder for Seoul: Reunification Will Benefit Koreans," Asian Wall Street Journal, November 11, 1993. (Also published in Seoul Shinmun, November 22).
"Mortality and the Fate of Communist States," Communist Economies and Economic Transformation, vol. 5, no. 4, 1993.
"Pacific Rim challenges are more political than economic," Washington Times, November 17, 1993.
"East Europe's Disturbing Health Crisis," Wall Street Journal Europe, September 30, 1993.
"Population et Main-D'Oeuvre en Corée du Nord: évolution et conséquences," Population, vol. 3, 1993.
"Mortality Rates and Nations in Crisis," American Enterprise, September/October 1993.
"The Development Question: In conversation with Nicholas Eberstadt," Freedom Review, September/ October 1993.
"North Korea: Reform, Muddling Through, or Collapse?" NBR Analysis, vol. 4, no. 3, September 1993.
"A revolution in 'family' that is eating its children," Washington Times, September 24, 1993.
Reviews of The Red and the Green, by Frederic L. Pryor, and The Last Leninists, by RobertScalapino, in Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, vol. 529, September 1993.
"Father and Son and North Korea," Asian Wall Street Journal, August 23, 1993.
"Suharto's New Order," Times Literary Supplement, August 6, 1993.
"North Korea: A Statistical Glimpse into a Closed Society," Korean Journal of National Unification, vol. 2, 1993.
"Are Smokers Rational?" Public Interest, Spring 1993.
"Should We Give Aid to Russia?" American Legion, January 1993.
1992
"Can the Two Koreas Be One?" Foreign Affairs, Winter 1992/1993.
"Who Wanted Mr. Liu Dead?" New York Times Book Review, November 25, 1992.
"How Democracy Took Hold in Two Asian Dragons,” Asian Wall Street Journal, September 15, 1992.
"Taiwan and South Korea: The 'Democratization' of Outlier States," World Affairs, vol. 155, no. 2, Fall 1992.
"No Aid to Russia," National Interest, Fall 1992.
"Divided Korea: Demographic and Socioeconomic Issues for Reunification," Population and Development Review, 18:3, September, 1992, with Judith Banister.
"Wrongheaded Aid to Russia," Wall Street Journal, September 1, 1992.
"A Skeptical Look at Aid for Russia and the CIS," Nikkei Business (in Japanese), July 27, 1992.
"Population and Labor Trends in North Korea," Transition (World Bank), June 1992.
"Few Options Left for Kim Il-Sung," Asian Wall Street Journal, June 26-27, 1992.
"New-blood Rx for cloak and stagger," Washington Times, June 22, 1992.
"Orwell's Nightmare: Human Rights in North Korea" (contributor), The Heritage Lectures, no. 394, May 20, 1992.
"Parents' Lifestyles Put Their Babies in Danger," Boston Sunday Herald, May 10, 1992.
"The Reunification of Korea," American Enterprise, March/April 1992, with Judith Banister.
"Population and Labor Force in North Korea: Trends and Implications," Harvard Center for Population and Development Studies, Working Paper Series no. 3, March, 1992.
"German Unification Steady, but Korean Unification Problematic" (in Japanese), Nikkei Business, January 20, 1992, with Judith Banister.
"America's Infant Mortality Problem: Parents," Wall Street Journal, January 20, 1992.
"Bridging the Great Korean Divide," Washington Times, January 7, 1992.
"If Korea Tears Down its 'Wall'...," Washington Post, January 5, 1992, with Judith Banister.
1991
"North Korea's Massive Military Machine," Asian Wall Street Journal, December 10, 1991.
"Divided Korea: Unification in the German Mirror," Asian Outlook, December 1991.
"Military Buildup in the DPRK: Some New Indications from North Korean Data," Asian Survey, November 1991, with Judith Banister.
"Aid to Eastern Europe: A Skeptic's View," in Promoting Democracy and Free Markets in Eastern Europe, (Santa Monica: RAND Corporation, 1992).
"How Not to Aid Eastern Europe," Commentary, November 1991; reprinted in Europe: Current Controversies (San Diego: Greenhaven Press, 1992).
"U.S. Infant Mortality: A Closer Look," Public Interest, Fall 1991.
"Why Are So Many American Babies Dying?" American Enterprise, September/October 1991.
"The War Nobody Won," New York Times Book Review, October 13, 1991.
"Gorbachev's Present Motivations," Freedom Review, September-October 1991.
"Population Change and National Security," Foreign Affairs, Summer 1991.
"Where Did the CIA Go Wrong?" National Review, June 10, 1991.
"The 'Population Bomb' May Really Be a Dud,” Boston Globe, May 26, 1991.
Testimony on U.S. Development Assistance Program, Senate Subcommittee on International Economic Policy, Trade, Oceans and Environment, April 11, 1991.
Testimony on foreign aid and Africa, House Subcommittee on Africa, March 14, 1991.
"The Specter of Capitalism," New York Times Book Review, January 17, 1991.
1990
"The Best Course Shuns Dependence," Los Angeles Times, December 17, 1990.
"Third World Debt and the State of the World's Children," Journal of Economic Growth, vol. 4, no. 3, December 1990.
"U.S. Illusion, Realities in China Clash in Readable, Acerbic Tome," Washington Times, November 19, 1990.
"Is Third World Debt Killing Children?" American Enterprise, November/December 1990.
"Unicef Cries Wolf," Wall Street Journal, September 28, 1990.
"The Soviet Economy: How Big?" American Enterprise, July/August 1990, with Jonathan Tombes.
Testimony on estimating the size of the Soviet economy, Senate Foreign Relations Committee, July 16, 1990.
"The Coming Collapse of North Korea," The Wall Street Journal, June 26, 1990.
"Scalapino's Asia," National Interest, Spring 1990.
Testimony on 'The State of the World's Children,' Senate Committee on Foreign Relations, April 5, 1990.
"Gorbynomics: Road to National Bankruptcy?" World Briefing, February 1990.
"Europe's Border Between Sickness and Health," Wall Street Journal, January 30, 1990.
1989
Preface to Missed Opportunities: The Rise and Fall of Jamaica's Edward Seaga (Indianapolis: Hudson Institute, 1989).
"Leninism Aims at Political Control," Washington Times, December 15, 1989.
"Structural Distortion and Development Assistance in Sub-Saharan Africa," Southern Africa Freedom Review, December 1989.
"Industrialization without Growth, Investment without Prosperity," Journal of Economic Growth, Fall 1989.
"Foreign Aid's Industrialized Poverty," Wall Street Journal, November 10, 1989.
"Out of Wedlock, Into Danger," Los Angeles Times, November 3, 1989.
"Health and Mortality in Eastern Europe 1965-1985," in US Congress Joint Economic Committee. Eastern European Economies: Pressures for Reform (publication date, October 27); republished in Communist Economies, vol. 2, no. 3, 1990.
"Democracy and Development in East Asia," Global Affairs, Fall 1989.
"The World Bank and IMF are Drifting," Christian Science Monitor, August 14, 1989.
"Can the Soviet Economy be Reformed?" Geopolitique, Summer 1989.
"No Democratic Trend in East Asia," Wall Street Journal, July 18, 1989.
Testimony on aid and development prospects in Sub-Saharan Africa," Testimony before House Subcommittee on Africa, March 9, 1989.
"Gorbachev's Perestroika and the Soviet Budget Deficit," World Briefing, March 1989.
"Restoring Purpose to American Foreign Aid in the 1980s," The World And I, February 1989.
1988
"Is Illegitimacy a Public Health Hazard?" National Review, December 30, 1988.
"Patterns of Poverty in South Africa," Wall Street Journal, December 16, 1988.
"The Soviet Economy: Worse Than We Thought," New York Times, November 22, 1988.
"How Communists Count," Public Opinion, November/December 1988.
"Poverty in Communist Countries," International Herald Tribune, October 30, 1988.
"Does the World Bank Help the Third World?" Cato Policy Report, September/October 1988.
"FAO: Accounts and Accountability," Society, August/September 1988.
"World Population Prospects," Commentary, August 1988.
"Business Intelligence," Wall Street Journal, July 3, 1988.
"Moral Aspects of Western Power and Policy," Global Affairs, Summer 1988.
"The Deadly Years," National Review, April 28 1988.
"Rule of Law: South Korea's Next Transition?" Crisis, March 1988.
"South Korea," Commentary, March 1988.
"How Creditworthy is the World Bank?" New York Times, March 1, 1988.
"Poverty in South Africa," Optima (South Africa), Spring 1988.
"Economic and Material Poverty in the United States," Public Interest, Spring 1988.
1987
"Four Myths About Aid to Africa," National Interest, Winter 1987/1988.
"The Never-Ending Struggle," Wall Street Journal, July 24, 1987.
"Health, Nutrition, and Literacy Under Communism," Journal of Economic Growth, Summer 1987.
"Health of an Empire: Poverty and Social Progress in the CMEA Bloc," in Henry S. Rowen and Charles Wolf Jr., Eds., The Future of the Soviet Empire (New York: Institute for Contemporary Studies).
"The Latest Myths About the Soviet Union," Commentary, May 1987.
Testimony on aid to Africa, Senate Subcommittee on African Affairs, March 10, 1987.
"Progress Against Poverty in Communist and Non-Communist Countries in the Postwar Era," in Peter L. Berger, ed., Capitalism and Equality: The Third World (New York, NY: Hamilton Books, 1987)
"Demographic Trends in the USSR and Prospects for Soviet Power," in Vulnerabilities of the Soviet Union (International Security Council)
1986
"North Korea's Long Weekend," Insight, December 10, 1986.
"Helping Hand Won't Solve Africa's Problems," Wall Street Journal, September 17, 1986.
Testimony on food aid, Senate Agriculture Committee, September 17, 1986.
"Population and Economic Development," Wilson Quarterly, Fall 1986.
"Democracy, Development, and the Debt Crisis: A Comment," This World, Summer 1986. (reprinted in Chicago Tribune, July 30).
"The Meaning of Chernobyl," Insight, June 6, 1986.
"Material Poverty in the People's Republic of China in International Perspective," in China's Economy Looks to the Year 2000 (US Congress Joint Economic Committee) (reprinted in Issues and Studies, May 1986)
"A Pattern of Health Reversals in the Soviet Bloc," Wall Street Journal, April 30, 1986.
"How Many Are Hungry?" The Atlantic Monthly, March 1986.
"Did Fidel Fudge the Figures?" Caribbean Review, Spring 1986.
"Development Problems in the Philippines," Insight, February 19, 1986.
1985
"Soviet Central Asia's Muslims," New York Times Book Review, September 23, 1985.
"Peering Behind China's Curtain," Washington Times, July 1, 1985.
"Restoring Purpose to American Foreign Aid," in Doug Bandow, ed. U.S. Aid to Developing Nations: A Free Market Agenda (Washington: Heritage Foundation, 1985).
Testimony on foreign aid, House Foreign Operations Subcommittee, March 19, 1984.
"Famine, Development, and Foreign Aid," Commentary, March 1985.
1984
"Health and Literacy: The Cuban 'Model,'" Wall Street Journal, December 10, 1984.
"On Population," New York Times, July 31, 1984.
"Managing the War Industries," Public Interest, Summer 1984.
"China's Family Policy," New York Times, April 22, 1984.
"What We Now Know About China," Commentary, March 1984.
"On Soviet Infant Mortality: A Comment," Population and Development Review, March 1984.
"Marxism-Leninism and the Fate of the Poor," Survey, Spring 1984.
1983
"Administering Utopia," Transaction/Society, December 1983.
"Introduction," in Iosef Dyadkin, Unnatural Mortality in the USSR, 1928-1954 (New Brunswick: Transaction Books, 1983).
"Security to the Soviets," New York Times, September 20, 1983.
"Bureaucratic Blight Hits Agriculture in Three Countries," Wall Street Journal, September 19, 1983.
"Can Japan Rely on the World Food System?" Nihon Keizai Shimbun, August 16, 1983.
"Soviet Union and World Power," Commentary, June 1983.
"Letter From East Germany," New Republic, April 28, 1983.
"Economics and the Big Picture," Public Interest, Spring 1983.
1982
"Food Security," (World Bank Paper, prepared with Graham Donaldson and Clifford Lewis)
"Standards of Living and Quality of Life in the USSR," in U.S. Congress Joint Economic Committee, The Soviet Economy: Problems and Prospects (Washington: Government Printing Office, 1982).
"Europe's Power Problem," Wall Street Journal, November 10, 1982. (with Eric Breindel)
"La Crisis," New Republic, October 18, 1982.
"The Missile Crisis in Europe," Public Research Syndicate, October 4, 1982.
"For NATO, A Crisis Over Missiles," New York Times, September 10, 1982. (with Tom Ricks)
"On Communism's Poor," New York Times, May 30, 1982.
"Myths About Hunger Can Hurt the Poor," Public Research Syndicate, April 25, 1982.
"Premises Underlying American Population Policy," report prepared for the Undersecretary of State for Science, Technology and Security Assistance, March 17, 1982.
"Europe and the Soviet Pipeline," Pubic Research Syndicate, January 25, 1982.
1981
"The Cost of Pax Sovietica," New Republic, December 31, 1981. (with Tom Ricks)
"Population Control and the Wealth of Nations," report prepared for the Undersecretary of State for Science, Technology, and Security Assistance, November 25, 1981.
"The Poor? Who Are They?" New York Times, November 15, 1981.
"Soviet Health: An Exchange," New York Review of Books, November 3, 1981.
"Fertility Decline in Less Developed Countries: Components and Implications," Environmental Conservation, Fall 1981.
"Hunger and Ideology," Commentary, July 1981.
"American Agriculture and World Hunger," Wilson Quarterly, Summer 1981.
"The Unrepresented Majority," New York Times Book Review, June 14, 1981.
"Soviet Health Problems," Public Research Syndicate, March 12, 1981.
"The Health Crisis in the USSR," New York Review of Books, February 19, 1981.
1980
"The Legacy of Theodore W. Schultz," RFIllustrated, October 1980.
"Did Mao Fail?" Wilson Quarterly, Autumn 1980.
"Malthusians, Marxists, and Missionaries," Society, September 1980.
"Paradoxes of Population," Commentary, August 1980. (with Eric Breindel)
"The Asian Syndrome," New Republic, February 25, 1980. (with M. Moynihan)
"Recent Declines in Fertility in the Less Developed Countries, and What Population Planners May Learn From Them," World Development, January 1980.
1979
"Population and Inequality," PEA Bulletin, Spring 1979.
1978
"Realities Behind Camp David: Demographic Factors in the Politics of Peace in the Middle East," Discussion Paper #103, Harvard Center for Population Studies, with Eric Breindel.
"Fertility Decline in the Less Developed Countries: Blip or Dip?" RF Illustrated, September 1978.
"Population Figures Are Misleading," New York Times, March 26, 1978.
"Population Doomsayers Are Perpetuating a Myth," Baltimore Sun, March 11, 1978.
"Learning From Philippine Peasants," Christian Science Monitor, January 18, 1978.
1977
"Letter From Madras," RF Illustrated, September 1977.
"Underappreciated India," New Republic, January 27, 1977.
"Hope for India," Washington Post, January 18, 1977.
1976
"The Rich Get Richer, The Poor Get Children," Journal for the UN Fund for Population Activities (Populi), October 1976.
"Myths of the Food Crisis," New York Review of Books, February 19, 1976.
FIELDS OF INTEREST
Agriculture Communist economies China Foreign aid Hunger International debt Korea Population and demography The third world The (former) Soviet Union