KOREA RESEARCH MONOGRAPH 17 INSTITUTE OF EAST ASIAN STUDIES UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA . BERKELEY CENTER FOR KOREAN STUDIES The Population of North Korea NICHOLAS EBERSTADT and JUDITH BANISTER INTERNATIONAL AND AREA STUDIES Albert Fishlow, Dean International and Area Studies at the University of California, Berkeley, comprises four groups: international and comparative studies, area studies, teaching programs, and services to international programs. INSTITUTE OF EAST ASIAN STUDIES UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, BERKELEY The Institute of East Asian Studies, now a part of Berkeley International and Area Studies, was established at the University of California at Berkeley in the fall of 1978 to promote research and teaching on the cultures and societies of China, Japan, and Korea. It amalgamates the following research and instructiorial centers and pro grams: Center for Chinese Studies, Center for Japanese Studies, Center for Korean Studies, Group in Asian Studies, the Indochina Studies Project, and the East Asia National Resource Center. INSTITUTE OF EAST ASIAN STUDIES Director: Frederic E. Wakeman Associate Director: Joyce K. Kallgren Assistant Director: Joan P. Kask Executive Committee: James Cahill Thomas B. Gold Hong Yung Lee Joyce K. Kallgren Joan P. Kask Mary Elizabeth Berry CENTER FOR CHINESE STUDIES Chair: Thomas B. Gold CENTER FOR JAPANESE STUDIES Chair: Mary Elizabeth Berry CENTER FOR KOREAN STUDIES Chair: Hong Yung Lee GROUP IN ASIAN STUDIES Chair: James Cahill INDOCHINA STUDIES PROJECT Chair: Douglas Pike EAST ASIA NATIONAL RESOURCE CENTER Director: Frederic E. Wakeman Cover design by Wolfgang Lederer Art by Sei-Kwan Sohn The Population of North Korea KOREA RESEARCH MONOGRAPH 17 INSTITUTE OF EAST ASIAN STUDIES UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA • BERKELEY CAS CENTER FOR KOREAN STUDIES The Population of North Korea NICHOLAS EBERSTADT and JUDITH BANISTER A publication of the Institute of East Asian Studies, University of California, Berkeley. Although the Institute of East Asian Studies is responsible for the selection and acceptance of manuscripts in this series, responsibility for the opinions expressed and for the accuracy of statements rests with their authors. Correspondence may be sent to: Joanne Sandstrom, Managing Editor Institute of East Asian Studies University of California Berkeley, California 94720 The Korea Research Monograph series is one of several publications series sponsored by the Institute of East Asian Studies in conjunction with its con stituent units. The others include the China Research Monograph series, the Japan Research Monograph series, the Indochina Research Monograph series, and the Research Papers and Policy Studies series. A list of recent publications appears at the back of the book. Copjnright© 1992 by The Regents of the University of California ISBN 1-55729-030-x Library of Congress Catalog Card Number 91-76771 Printed in the United States of America All rights reserved. Contents List of Tables vi List of Figures viii List of Maps viii Acronyms/Abbreviations Used ix Preface xi Summary xiii Introduction 1 Key Findings 2 Background 3 Available Demographic Data on the DPRK 5 Overview of the Data 6 Faithfully Reported or Falsified? 8 Regional Population Distribution 13 Trends and Geographical Variations in Household Size 18 Urbanization 20 Migration 28 Total Population Size, Growth, and Sex Ratio 31 Elections as an Indicator of Total Population Size 35 Population and Party Membership 38 Age Structure 38 Vital Statistics and Rates 41 Mortality and Health 43 Expectation of Life at Birth 45 Crude Death Rates 50 Infant Mortality 50 Reported vs. Estimated Mortality Trends 52 Causes of Death 55 The Health Care System 58 The 1980s Marriage Boom 63 Fertility 66 Population Policy 69 VI North Korea—1990 Population Profile 72 Educational Attainment 75 Labor Force 79 "Missing Males": The Military Population 86 Conclusions 97 Appendix A: Modeling North Korean Population Dynamics 101 Appendix B: Data Accuracy and Completeness 113 Appendix C: North Korea 1990 Population Profile 117 Appendix D: Range of Estimates of DPRK Armed Forces 119 Notes 124 Works Frequently Cited 143 TABLES Table 1. Reported North Korean Mortality in Relation to CMEA Countries, 1960-1986 12 Table 2. North Korea, Administrative Units, 1949-1987 14 Table 3. North Korea, Provincial Civilian Population Density, Year-end 1987 15 Table 4. North Korea, Civilian Population and Sex Ratio by Province, Year-end 1987 17 Table 5. North Korea, Number of Households by Province, 1980-1987 19 Table 6. North Korea, Civilian Population by Urban and Rural Residence, 1953-1987 21 Table 7. Population of Major Cities in North Korea, 1980-1987 22 Table 8. Urbanization in North and South Korea, 1935-1985 28 Table 9. North Korea, Internal Migration, 1980-1987 30 Table 10. Annual Domestic Migration as Reported Through Residential Registration System: North and South Korea, 1980-1987 30 Table 11. North Korea, Reported Total Population by Sex, 1946-1987...32 Table 12. North Korea, Estimated Total Population Size and Growth, 1960-1990 34 Table 13. North Korean Population Totals Implied by Elections for Supreme People's Assembly (SPA), 1948-1990 36 vu Table 14. Claimed or Estimated Party Membership as a Percentage of Total Population: North Korea and Selected Other Communist Countries, 1987 39 Table 15. North Korea, Reported Civilian Population by Age Group, Year-end 1986 40 Table 16. North Korea, Reported Crude Vital Rates and Infant Mortality, 1944-1986 42 Table 17. North Korea, Reported Life Expectancy, 1936-1986 46 Table 18. Estimated Expectation of Life at Birth for North Korea, South Korea, Prepartition Korea, 1940-1986 48 Table 19. North Korea, Causes of Death, 1960-1986 56 Table 20. Breakdown of Reported Mortalityby Cause of Death: Korea 1938-1942, South Korea 1985, North Korea 1986 57 Table 21. Structure and Performance of Health Care Sectors in Korea, Selected Years, 1938-1987 60 Table 22. North Korea, Number of Cases of Marriage and Divorce, 1949-1987 64 Table 23. Total Fertility Rates, North and South Korea, 1966-1988 68 Table 24. North Korea, School Enrollment, 1986-1987 76 Table 25. North Korea, College and University Graduates, 1988 76 Table 26. Reported Educational Attainment for the DPRK and Selected Other Countries, Recent Years 77 Table 27. North Korea, Population Ages 16 and Over by Occupation, 1986 and 1987 80 Table 28. Reported Classification of North Korean Population by Occupation, 1960-1987 83 Table 29. North Korea, Estimated and Projected Population in Labor Force Ages, 1986-2050 85 Table 30. North Korea, Males Not Reported, 1975-1987 88 Table 31. World's Largest Military Forces, Totals and Percent of Population, 1987 93 Table 32. Military Mobilization, Estimated 1986 Percent of Population in Armed Forces, North Korea and "Top Ten" Other Countries by Source of Estimate 94 Table 33. Estimates of North Korea Armed Forces by Source, 1975-1987 95 Table A-1. North Korea: Population and Vital Rates, 1960-2050 104 vm Table A-2. North Korea: Estimates of Mortality and Fertility, 1960-2050 108 Table B-1. North Korea, Estimated Completeness of Infant Mortality Reporting, 1960-1986 116 Table C-1. North Korea, 1990 Population FrofQe 117 Table D-1. North Korea, Alternate Estimates of Males Not Reported, 1975-1987 120 Table D-2. North Korea, Estimation of Missing Males using Sex Ratios, 1975-1987 121 FIGURES Figure 1. North Korean Population by Various Indicators: Selected Years, 1962-1990 37 Figure 2. North Korea, Estimated Vital Rates, 1960-1990 44 Figure 3. North Korea, Life Expectancy as Reported and Model 1 Estimates, 1960-1986 53 Figure 4. North Korea, Infant Mortality as Reported and Model 1 Estimates, 1960-1986 54 Figure 5. North Korea 1990 Population Structure 74 Figure 6. Reported Occupations by Sector: North and South Korea, 1987 81 MAPS Map 1. North Korea, Provincial Population Densities, 1987 16 Map 2. Leading Cities of North Korea, Comparative 1987 Population Sizes 26 Acronyms/Abbreviations Used ACDA Arms Control and Disarmament Agency, Washington, D.C. CMEA, COMECON Council for Mutual Economic Assistance GBR crude birth rate CDR crude death rate CSB (DPRK) Central Statistics Bureau DPRK Democratic People's Republic of Korea (North Korea) DMZ demilitarized zone GDP gross domestic product CDR German Democratic Republic GFR general fertility rate GNI gross national income ICD International Classification of Diseases IISS International Institute for Strategic Studies, London KCNA Korea Central News Agency KIPH Korea Institute for Population and Health, Seoul KPA (DPRK) Korean People's Army KWP (DPRK) Korean Workers' Party NAS National Academy of Sciences, Washington, D.C. NUB (Republic of Korea) National Unification Board PRC People's Republic of China PVC (PRC) People's Volunteer Army RUP Rural-Urban Projection Program, U.S. Bureau of the Census SPA (DPRK) Supreme People's Assembly TFR total fertility rate UNFPA United Nations Population Fund (formerly. United Nations Fund for Population Activities) Preface This study was originally prepared as a paper for the Center for Inter national Research of the U.S. Bureau of the Census. The analyses and conclusions in this report, however, are solely the responsibility of the au thors. We are grateful to all those who made it possible for Nicholas Eberstadt to travel to Pyongyang in May 1990, and we especially appreci ate the cooperation of the DPRK Central Statistics Bureau personnel who gave us permission to cite all the official data used in this report. In addi tion, we would like to thank Andrea Miles, Jonathan Tombes, and Christi na Harbaugh for their assistance with research, tables, and graphs. Our thanks also go to Jack Gibson, who created the maps. We received helpful comments on an earlier draft from John Aird, Eduardo Arriaga, Richard Forstall, Christina Harbaugh, Frank Hobbs, Ward Kingkade, Barry Kostin- sky, and Barbara Boyle Torrey. The comments and suggestions of Profes sor Chong-Sik Lee were especially helpful. Our study benefited from the criticism, and encouragement, offered by some of the DPRK's specialists on population statistics dxuing Nicholas Eberstadt's visit to Pyongyang.