Public Opinion Poll: Lithuania
January 7–26, 2020 Detailed Methodology • The survey was conducted on behalf of the International Republican Institute’s Center for Insights in Survey Research by Norstat Eesti AS.
• Data was collected between January 7 and January 26, 2020 through face-to-face interviews at respondents’ homes.
• The sample comprised 1,007 residents of Lithuania, aged 18 and older. The sample is representative of the adult population of Lithuania by NUTS-3 region (Apskritys/Counties) and urbanicity, in accordance with the 2011 Census of Lithuania. • The survey’s response rate was 51 percent. The margin of error for the full sample is ±3.1 points at the 95 percent confidence level.
• A multistage probability sampling method was used, employing a random route method for household selection and the Kish grid for respondent selection. • Stage 1: PPS stratification across ten NUTS-3 regions. • Stage 2: PPS stratification by urbanicity. • Stage 3: Random allocation of primary sampling units across settlements. • The sample is weighted for county, urbanicity, gender, age, nationality, and educational attainment level based on the results of the 2011 Census.
• Interviews were conducted in Lithuanian. • Charts and graphs may not add up to 100 percent due to rounding. • Cited bases are weighted.
2 Opinions of the National and Regional Context In general, would you say that Lithuania is headed in the right direction or in the wrong direction?
9%
39% 52%
In the right direction In the wrong direction Don't know/Refused to answer
4 What is the most important problem facing our country today? (Spontaneous answers)
Economy - cost of living, high prices 35% Economy - unemployment 10% Corruption 7% Government/Politics 7% Pensions 4% Poverty 4% Economy - other/general 4% Healthcare 3% Education 3% Migration 3% Brain Drain 3% Economy - small business opportunities/access to loans 3% Low wages 2% Internal conflicts 2% Social inequality 2% Social services/ benefits 2% Lack of unity 2% Environment 1% External conflicts/ War 1% Insecurity 1% Crime/Public Safety 1% Other 2% No problem 1% Don't know / Refused to answer 1%
*Responses receiving less than 1% are 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% collapsed into Other. 5 How about at the European level? What is the biggest single problem facing Europe today, the one that you are most concerned about? (Spontaneous answers) Migration 17% Terrorism 9% Insecurity 7% Economy - cost of living, high prices 7% Internal conflicts 6% External conflicts/ War 5% Environment 4% Natural disasters 4% Economy - other/general 4% Corruption 3% Economy - unemployment 3% Illicit drugs 2% Crime/Public Safety 2% Government/Politics 1% Social services/ benefits 1% Pensions 1% Healthcare 1% Poverty 1% Lack of unity 1% Brain Drain 1% Other 3% No problem 4% Don't know / Refused to answer 14% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% *Responses receiving less than 1% are collapsed into Other. 6 How would you describe the current economic situation of your household?
<1% 3% 6%
23%
68%
Very Good Somewhat good Somewhat bad Very bad Don't know/Refused to answer
7 How likely or unlikely are ordinary people able to influence decisions made in Lithuania?
Very Likely 7%
Somewhat likely 27%
Somewhat unlikely 40%
Very unlikely 26%
Don't know/Refused to answer 1%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 8 How important or unimportant is it that all members of our country’s adult population, including women, young adults, minorities, and people with disabilities, are included in political decision-making?
Very important 57%
Somewhat important 34%
Somewhat unimportant 7%
Very unimportant 1%
Don't know/Refused to answer 1%
0% 20% 40% 60% 9 Do you think that today’s generation of young people has a good future in Lithuania or not?
Young people (18-29) Base: n=165 Total population 2%
5% 45% 53%
39%
Yes
56% No
Don't know/Refused to answer
10 Did you vote in the Lithuanian parliamentary elections in 2016?
1%
28% Yes
No
Don't know/Refused to answer 71%
11 For which party did you vote? (Respondents who voted in the 2016 elections, n=716)
Lithuanian Farmers and Greens Union 25%
Homeland Union- Lithuanian Christian Democrats 17%
Social Democratic Party of Lithuania 11%
Labour Party 5%
Liberal Movement 5% Electoral Action of Poles in Lithuania- Christian Families Alliance 3% Party Order and Justice 2%
Lithuanian Freedom Union (liberals) 2%
Lithuanian Green Party 2% The Anti-Corruption Coalition of N. Puteikis and K. Krivickas 1% The Way of Courage <1%
Don't know / Refused to answer 28%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%
12 If parliamentary elections were held this Sunday, how likely would you be to vote in this election?
I would vote for sure 58%
I would probably vote 17%
I probably wouldn't vote 11%
I wouldn't vote for sure 12%
Don't know/Refused to answer 3%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80%
13 If the following parties/coalitions would run candidates in these elections, for which party would you vote?
Homeland Union- Lithuanian Christian Democrats 12% Decided voters, n=432 Social Democratic Party of Homeland Union- Lithuanian Christian Democrats 27% Lithuania 9% Social Democratic Party of Lithuanian Farmers and Greens Lithuania 20% Union 6% Lithuanian Farmers and Greens Union 14% Labour Party 5% Labour Party 10% Party Order and Justice 3% Party Order and Justice 6% The Anti-Corruption Coalition of N. Puteikis and K. Krivickas 2% The Anti-Corruption Coalition of N. Puteikis and K. Krivickas 6% Liberal Movement 2% Liberal Movement 5% Electoral Action of Poles in 2% Electoral Action of Poles in Lithuania- Christian Families… Lithuania- Christian Families… 5% Lithuanian Freedom Union Lithuanian Freedom Union (liberals) 2% (liberals) 3% Lithuanian People's Party 1% Lithuanian People's Party 2%
Lithuanian Green Party <1% Lithuanian Green Party 1% Lithuanian List <1% Lithuanian List <1% The Way of Courage <1% The Way of Courage <1% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% Would not vote 17% *Decided voters are those who named a valid political Don't know/Refused to answer 40% party.
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 14 If the following parties/coalitions would run candidates in these elections, for which party would you vote? If parliamentary elections were held this 3% Sunday, how likely would you be to vote in 23% this election? I would/probably would vote 75% I wouldn't/probably wouldn't vote Don't know/Refused to answer
Likely voters, n=752 Decided and likely voters, n=389 Homeland Union- Lithuanian Homeland Union- Lithuanian Christian Democrats 15% Christian Democrats 29% Social Democratic Party of Lithuania 10% Social Democratic Party of Lithuania 19% Lithuanian Farmers and Greens Union 7% Lithuanian Farmers and Greens Union 14% Labour Party 5% Labour Party 10% Party Order and Justice 3% Party Order and Justice Electoral Action of Poles in Lithuania- 6% Christian Families Alliance 3% Electoral Action of Poles in 5% Liberal Movement 3% Lithuania- Christian Families… The Anti-Corruption Coalition of N. Liberal Movement 5% Puteikis and K. Krivickas 2% The Anti-Corruption Coalition of N. Lithuanian Freedom Union (liberals) 2% Puteikis and K. Krivickas 4% Lithuanian People's Party 1% Lithuanian Freedom Union (liberals) 4% Lithuanian Green Party <1% Lithuanian People's Party 1% The Way of Courage <1% Lithuanian Green Party 1%
Lithuanian List <1% The Way of Courage <1% Would not vote 4% Lithuanian List <1% Don't know/Refused to answer 44% *Decided and likely voters are those who would or probably would vote, and who also named a valid 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% political party. 15 Do you believe that democracy is the best possible form of government for Lithuania or not?
Yes, it is the best possible 9% form of government for our country.
7% No, there are other forms of government that could be equally good for our country. 19%
No, there are other forms of government that are better than democracy. 65%
Don't know/Refused to answer
16 Some people argue that the party choices in our country’s politics are too limited and that new political forces should provide other alternatives in future elections. To what extent do you agree or disagree with this statement?
Strongly agree 15%
Somewhat agree 34%
Somewhat disagree 20%
Strongly disagree 28%
Don't know/Refused to answer 4%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40%
17 Some people argue that the party choices in our country’s politics are too limited and that new political forces should provide other alternatives in future elections. To what extent do you agree or disagree with this statement?
Youth 18-29 25% 36% 14% 19% 6% n=165
All Respondents 15% 34% 20% 28% 4%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Strongly agree Somewhat agree Somewhat disagree Strongly disagree Don't know/Refused to answer
18 Media Preferences From which source do you get most of your daily social and political news?
Public television and radio broadcasters, such as LRT, LRT radio 45%
Online news sources, such as online newspapers websites and blogs 32%
Commercial television and radio broadcasters, such as TV3, LNK, M-1, RC 14%
Social media such as Facebook, Twitter, Instagram, LinkedIn 4%
Offline sources, such as interactions with family, friends, or colleagues 2%
Major newspapers, such as Lietuvos rytas, Verslo žinios, Respublika, Kauno diena 2%
Don't know/Refused to answer 1%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
20 How reliable or unreliable do you find the following sources of news:
Very reliable Somewhat reliable Somewhat unreliable Very unreliable Don't know/Refused to answer
National Public TV/ Radio 23% 58% 13% 3%4%
National commercial TV/ Radio 13% 56% 23% 4%4%
Western TV/Radio 8% 37% 15% 4% 36%
Russian TV/Radio 3% 16% 28% 21% 32%
3% Facebook 21% 34% 13% 29%
VK.ru 2%10% 16% 13% 59%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 21 Do you access news in Russian?
2%
34%
64%
Yes No Don't know/Refused to answer
22 If so, can you name some sources of news you use in Russian? (Up to 3 answers) (Respondents who access news in Russian: n=646, Local list provided)
Delfi 27%
Vesti.ru 15%
RT 12%
RIA Novosti 5%
Baltnews 4%
Gazeta.ru 2%
Rossia RTR 2%
Rubaltic 2%
Kurier 2%
Lenta.ru 2%
Meduza 1%
Other 12%
Don't know/Refused to answer 38%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 23 Do you access news in any other languages?
2%
40%
58%
Yes No Don't know/Refused to answer
24 If so, can you name some sources of news you use in other languages? (Up to 3 answers) (Respondents who access news in any other language: n=399, Top three spontaneous answers)
BBC 17% Sources of news in English 14% The Internet and social media 13% CNN 12% Sources of news in Polish 9% TV channels 7% TV Polonia 3% Euronews 3% RTL 2% DW 2% Radio 2% Sources of news in German 1% Sources of news in Ukranian 1% Discovery 1% Belarus 24 1% News portals online 1% Kurier Wileński 1% Other 5% Don't know/Refused to answer 30% *Responses receiving less than 1% are 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% collapsed into Other. 25 Do you support or oppose blocking television and radio broadcasts from the Russian Federation into Lithuania?
60%
Always, I believe all broadcasts from the Russian Federation 49% 50% should be blocked.
Mostly, I believe that most broadcasts from the Russian 40% Federation should be blocked.
Rarely, I believe that only a small 30% section of broadcasts from the 25% Russian Federation should be blocked. Never, I believe that no 20% broadcasts from the Russian 14% Federation should be blocked.
10% Don't know/Refused to answer 7% 5%
0%
26 How much do you trust or distrust the national media’s accuracy in its coverage of the following topics? Fully trust Somewhat trust Somewhat distrust Fully distrust There is no coverage Don't know/Refused to answer
Local community social 17% 2% and political news 61% 16% 4%
National social and political news 16% 60% 18% 3%2%
European social and political news 16% 63% 16% 3% 3%
International (outside Europe) social and political news 13% 62% 17% 3%5%
Russian social and political news 7% 43% 31% 11% 1%7%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 27 Values On a scale from 1 to 5, does Lithuania have more in common with Western Europe or with Russia, in the following areas. 1 would mean Lithuania is totally like Western Europe, while 5 would mean totally like Russia. Totally like Western Europe (1) 2 3 4 Totally like Russia (5) Don't know/Refused to answer
Culture and intellectual life 25% 40% 28% 6% 2% 1%
23% 1% Morality and values 39% 29% 6% 2%
Employment and 2% standard of living 16% 37% 33% 11% 1%
Healthcare, pensions, and 15% 32% 33% 14% other social benefits 2% 4%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 29 And, for each of these aspects, would you like it to have more in common with Western Europe or Russia?
Western Europe Russia Don't know/Refused to answer
Culture and intellectual life 83% 7% 10%
Morality and values 80% 9% 11%
Employment and 72% standard of living 16% 12%
Healthcare, pensions, and other social benefits 69% 18% 13%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 30 Vladimir Putin’s Russia has tried to portray itself as a defender of Christendom and traditional European values. What is your opinion of this view of Russia?
8% 21%
44%
27%
It is true — on this issue at least, Russia has taken the side of traditional European values.
It is not really true — Russia is just cynically pretending to stand up for traditional European values while pursuing its own interests. It is not true at all — it demonstrates Russia's rejection of modern Western values.
Don't know/Refused to answer
31 Which of the following statements comes closest to your view of Russia and Putin as you consider these changes in European culture? (For those who answered that it is true that Russia is defending European values, n=84)
45% Russia and Putin can be allies against an EU that is pushing us 40% 40% to abandon our values.
35% I wish Russia could be an ally, 30% but I don't trust Putin. Some cooperation would be possible, but I would be very careful. 25% 22% 21% 20% Regardless of my disagreement 17% with some EU policies, I don't think Russia should have any 15% influence over how EU policies are made. 10% Don't know/Refused to answer 5%
0%
32 What should be the role of the Russian language in Lithuania today?
It should be an official 2% 3% language in addition to Lithuanian language.
22% It should be a recognized official minority language. 33% It should have an unofficial role, but not a formal one.
It should have no role at all.
Don't know/Refused to answer 40%
33 Do you think Russian language is a basis of discrimination in Lithuania?
Yes, Russian language is a basis of 3% discrimination.
Sometimes Russian language can be a 10% basis of dicrimination.
Russian language is not a basis of discrimination in Lithuania but the 17% language you speak sometimes does make things easier or harder.
No, Russian language is not a basis of 68% discrimination in Lithuania.
Don't know/Refused to answer 2%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 34 Foreign Relations and Foreign Influence How strongly do you agree or disagree with the following statement? Lithuania’s interests are best served by maintaining strong relations with: Strongly agree Somewhat agree Somewhat disagree Strongly disagree Don't know/Refused to answer
European Union 64% 33% 1%<1% 2%
Nordic countries (Norway, Sweden, 55% 40% 3%<1%3% Finland, Denmark)
NATO 51% 41% 4%1%4%
United States 34% 51% 10% 2%3%
Russia 14% 47% 23% 12% 4%
China 14% 44% 23% 11% 9%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 36 Why do you think our country’s interests are best served by maintaining strong relations with Russia? (Among those who strongly agree that Lithuania should maintain strong relations with Russia, n=141)
Russia is close and dangerous - we must keep 34% on good terms to protect ourselves. Russia is our biggest export market. 18%
Russians are our brothers. 8%
Russia is our main energy provider. 8%
Russia is the biggest investor in Lithuania. 7% Russia is the only country capable of standing 5% up to the West. Russia is our protector throughout history. 4% Russia is our true ally and guarantor of 2% national borders and sovereignty. Other 11%
Don't know/Refused to answer 4%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40%
37 In your opinion, what has the European Union’s impact on the following issues been? Very positive Somewhat positive Neutral Somewhat negative Very negative Don't know/Refused to answer
European stability/security 31% 52% 13%1%<1%3%
Democratic governance and rule of law 26% 51% 17% 2% <1% 5%
International influence 25% 53% 16%1% <1% 5%
Political and social independence and 24% 50% 18% 3% <1% 5% sovereignty
Local businesses 20% 46% 23% 6% 1% 5%
Traditional values and way of life 17% 46% 26% 5% 2%4%
Prices of goods and services 13% 32% 20% 22% 7% 6%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 38 Which statement is closest to your opinion?
The United States is a reliable partner for European security, and its presence in Europe 25% contributes to peace and security.
The United States is a reliable partner for European security, but European countries 42% should not be so reliant on the US for defense.
The United States has become an unreliable partner for European security, and I doubt it 19% would defend our country in an open conflict.
The United States should not play a role in European security, and in fact its presence in 8% Europe increases tensions and insecurity.
Don't know/Refused to answer 6%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 39 In your opinion, what is the biggest security threat facing our country today?
Organized crime/drugs/trafficking 23%
Collapse of national political/financial system 19%
Climate change 18%
Non-military foreign interference (cyber-attacks, political/economic pressure) 14%
Natural disasters 7%
Open military conflict between countries/War 4%
Regional tensions/Ethnic and religious conflict 4%
Terrorism 1%
Other 1%
None 1%
Don't know/Refused to answer 8%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 40 What is your personal view of NATO?
5% 2% Very positive
9%
Somewhat positive 35%
Somewhat negative
Very negative
49%
Don't know/Refused to answer
41 Regardless of your view on NATO as an organization, which statement comes closest to your feelings about foreign NATO troops being stationed in Lithuania?
I am happy they are here ensuring our security. 71%
They were necessary at the beginning, but now they are having a negative impact on our society 15% and should leave.
They should have never been here, they make 9% us less secure.
I didn't know there were foreign soldiers here. 1%
Don't know/Refused to answer 5%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 42 Which statement comes closest to your opinion about NATO military exercises in the region?
They are integral to maintain NATO's 4% readiness to defend our country and should continue. 10% They are necessary to maintain NATO's readiness to defend our country, but they 10% should be less frequent.
They may be necessary from time to time 51% but they add to regional destabilization.
They are not necessary and serve only to 25% aggrevate Russia.
Don't know/Refused to answer
43 To what extent do you agree or disagree with the following statement? Ukraine is a part of Russia’s sphere of influence; thus Russia has a right to have a role in decisions made in Ukraine.
Strongly agree 2%
Somewhat agree 9%
Somewhat disagree 17%
Strongly disagree 66%
Don't know/Refused to answer 6%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80%
44 Lithuania is one of a few NATO members meeting its commitment to spend at least 2 percent of its GDP on defense, while nations like Germany do not. Should Germany increase its defense spending to at least 2 percent of its GDP?
16%
20%
64%
Yes No Don't know/Refused to answer
45 Which statement comes closest to your opinion about why Germany should not increase its defense spending to 2 percent? (For those who stated that Germany should not increase its defense spending to at least 2 percent of GDP, n=203)
That's their business. Germany can spend 76% what they want on defense.
It could set off an arms race in Europe. 12%
A larger German military could be a 5% threat to our security.
Given their history, I would prefer they 4% didn't increase the size of their military.
Don't know/Refused to answer 4%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
46 Demographics Demographics 60% 55% 56% 51% 50% 45%
40% 32% 34% 31% 29% 30% 24% 23% 21% 21% 20% 16% 18% 15% 14% 9% 10% 7% <1% 0% 61+ Male 18-29 30-44 45-60 Female Secondary No income Up toUp 300 EUR Over Over 2001 EUR 301 to 600 EUR 600 to 301 EUR 900 to 601 901 to 2000 EUR 2000 to 901 Elementary or less married) College or university Married, living with a partner with living Married, Divorced and other (used to be No response/Refusedanswer to Single, not living with a partner with living not Single, GENDER AGE EDUCATION MARITAL TOTAL MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD STATUS INCOME
48 Demographics
30% 28%
25% 20% 20%
15% 10% 10% 10% 8% 4% 5% 3% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 1% 1% <1% 1% 0% - Pupil Other Student Housewife Pensioner Maternity leave Maternity Farmer, fisherman Top executive manager Unemployed (currently) Unemployed Earns in some other way other some in Earns Unskilled manual worker manual Unskilled Middle executive manager executive Middle doctor, teacher…) doctor, Owns a big company, stockholder company, a big Owns White-collar (administration, etc.) Highly qualified intellectual (lawyer, (lawyer, intellectual Highly qualified Semiskilled and skilled manual worker employed (lawyer, doctor, teacher…) doctor, employed (lawyer, Owns a small company, workshop, etc. Highly qualified intellectual who is self is who intellectual qualified Highly EMPLOYED SELF-EMPLOYED UNEMPLOYED 49 Demographics
100% 100% 98% 90% 86% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 6% 5% <1% <1% <1% 1% 1% 1% <1% 1% 2% 0% No Yes Pole Other Citizen Latvian Russian Ukrainian Lithuanian Belorussian Refused to answer Refused to answer Non-citizen passport holder passport Non-citizen Non-citizen and non-passport holder non-passport and Non-citizen Citizenship Status Nationality Military Service 50 Demographics
100% 100%
89% 90%
79% 80%
70%
60%
50%
39% 40%
30% 19% 20% 10% 10% 8% 3% 3% 4% 3% <1% <1% <1% 0% Other Other Polish Polish English English Latvian Latvian Russian Russian German German Ukranian Ukranian Lithuanian Lithuanian Language spoken Language at home 51 Demographics
80% 76% 70% 59% 59% 60% 50% 40% 30% 19% 18% 16% 20% 12% 13% 9% 9% 10% 7% 2% <1% 1% 1% 1% 0% None Never Muslim Catholic Orthodox Every Week Very religious Very irreligious Christian (other) Somewhat religious Somewhat irreligious Don't know/Refusedto answer Don't know/Refusedto answer Don't know/Refusedto answer Rarely/ on Major Religious Holidays Occassionally/oncea or twice month What is your religious affiliation? To what extend do you consider How often do you go to or yourself religious or not? attend other religious services? 52 Center for Insights in Survey Research 202.408.9450 | [email protected] www.IRI.org | @IRI_Polls
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