Public Opinion Poll: Lithuania January 7–26, 2020 Detailed Methodology • The survey was conducted on behalf of the International Republican Institute’s Center for Insights in Survey Research by Norstat Eesti AS. • Data was collected between January 7 and January 26, 2020 through face-to-face interviews at respondents’ homes. • The sample comprised 1,007 residents of Lithuania, aged 18 and older. The sample is representative of the adult population of Lithuania by NUTS-3 region (Apskritys/Counties) and urbanicity, in accordance with the 2011 Census of Lithuania. • The survey’s response rate was 51 percent. The margin of error for the full sample is ±3.1 points at the 95 percent confidence level. • A multistage probability sampling method was used, employing a random route method for household selection and the Kish grid for respondent selection. • Stage 1: PPS stratification across ten NUTS-3 regions. • Stage 2: PPS stratification by urbanicity. • Stage 3: Random allocation of primary sampling units across settlements. • The sample is weighted for county, urbanicity, gender, age, nationality, and educational attainment level based on the results of the 2011 Census. • Interviews were conducted in Lithuanian. • Charts and graphs may not add up to 100 percent due to rounding. • Cited bases are weighted. 2 Opinions of the National and Regional Context In general, would you say that Lithuania is headed in the right direction or in the wrong direction? 9% 39% 52% In the right direction In the wrong direction Don't know/Refused to answer 4 What is the most important problem facing our country today? (Spontaneous answers) Economy - cost of living, high prices 35% Economy - unemployment 10% Corruption 7% Government/Politics 7% Pensions 4% Poverty 4% Economy - other/general 4% Healthcare 3% Education 3% Migration 3% Brain Drain 3% Economy - small business opportunities/access to loans 3% Low wages 2% Internal conflicts 2% Social inequality 2% Social services/ benefits 2% Lack of unity 2% Environment 1% External conflicts/ War 1% Insecurity 1% Crime/Public Safety 1% Other 2% No problem 1% Don't know / Refused to answer 1% *Responses receiving less than 1% are 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% collapsed into Other. 5 How about at the European level? What is the biggest single problem facing Europe today, the one that you are most concerned about? (Spontaneous answers) Migration 17% Terrorism 9% Insecurity 7% Economy - cost of living, high prices 7% Internal conflicts 6% External conflicts/ War 5% Environment 4% Natural disasters 4% Economy - other/general 4% Corruption 3% Economy - unemployment 3% Illicit drugs 2% Crime/Public Safety 2% Government/Politics 1% Social services/ benefits 1% Pensions 1% Healthcare 1% Poverty 1% Lack of unity 1% Brain Drain 1% Other 3% No problem 4% Don't know / Refused to answer 14% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% *Responses receiving less than 1% are collapsed into Other. 6 How would you describe the current economic situation of your household? <1% 3% 6% 23% 68% Very Good Somewhat good Somewhat bad Very bad Don't know/Refused to answer 7 How likely or unlikely are ordinary people able to influence decisions made in Lithuania? Very Likely 7% Somewhat likely 27% Somewhat unlikely 40% Very unlikely 26% Don't know/Refused to answer 1% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 8 How important or unimportant is it that all members of our country’s adult population, including women, young adults, minorities, and people with disabilities, are included in political decision-making? Very important 57% Somewhat important 34% Somewhat unimportant 7% Very unimportant 1% Don't know/Refused to answer 1% 0% 20% 40% 60% 9 Do you think that today’s generation of young people has a good future in Lithuania or not? Young people (18-29) Base: n=165 Total population 2% 5% 45% 53% 39% Yes 56% No Don't know/Refused to answer 10 Did you vote in the Lithuanian parliamentary elections in 2016? 1% 28% Yes No Don't know/Refused to answer 71% 11 For which party did you vote? (Respondents who voted in the 2016 elections, n=716) Lithuanian Farmers and Greens Union 25% Homeland Union- Lithuanian Christian Democrats 17% Social Democratic Party of Lithuania 11% Labour Party 5% Liberal Movement 5% Electoral Action of Poles in Lithuania- Christian Families Alliance 3% Party Order and Justice 2% Lithuanian Freedom Union (liberals) 2% Lithuanian Green Party 2% The Anti-Corruption Coalition of N. Puteikis and K. Krivickas 1% The Way of Courage <1% Don't know / Refused to answer 28% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 12 If parliamentary elections were held this Sunday, how likely would you be to vote in this election? I would vote for sure 58% I would probably vote 17% I probably wouldn't vote 11% I wouldn't vote for sure 12% Don't know/Refused to answer 3% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 13 If the following parties/coalitions would run candidates in these elections, for which party would you vote? Homeland Union- Lithuanian Christian Democrats 12% Decided voters, n=432 Social Democratic Party of Homeland Union- Lithuanian Christian Democrats 27% Lithuania 9% Social Democratic Party of Lithuanian Farmers and Greens Lithuania 20% Union 6% Lithuanian Farmers and Greens Union 14% Labour Party 5% Labour Party 10% Party Order and Justice 3% Party Order and Justice 6% The Anti-Corruption Coalition of N. Puteikis and K. Krivickas 2% The Anti-Corruption Coalition of N. Puteikis and K. Krivickas 6% Liberal Movement 2% Liberal Movement 5% Electoral Action of Poles in 2% Electoral Action of Poles in Lithuania- Christian Families… Lithuania- Christian Families… 5% Lithuanian Freedom Union Lithuanian Freedom Union (liberals) 2% (liberals) 3% Lithuanian People's Party 1% Lithuanian People's Party 2% Lithuanian Green Party <1% Lithuanian Green Party 1% Lithuanian List <1% Lithuanian List <1% The Way of Courage <1% The Way of Courage <1% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% Would not vote 17% *Decided voters are those who named a valid political Don't know/Refused to answer 40% party. 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 14 If the following parties/coalitions would run candidates in these elections, for which party would you vote? If parliamentary elections were held this 3% Sunday, how likely would you be to vote in 23% this election? I would/probably would vote 75% I wouldn't/probably wouldn't vote Don't know/Refused to answer Likely voters, n=752 Decided and likely voters, n=389 Homeland Union- Lithuanian Homeland Union- Lithuanian Christian Democrats 15% Christian Democrats 29% Social Democratic Party of Lithuania 10% Social Democratic Party of Lithuania 19% Lithuanian Farmers and Greens Union 7% Lithuanian Farmers and Greens Union 14% Labour Party 5% Labour Party 10% Party Order and Justice 3% Party Order and Justice Electoral Action of Poles in Lithuania- 6% Christian Families Alliance 3% Electoral Action of Poles in 5% Liberal Movement 3% Lithuania- Christian Families… The Anti-Corruption Coalition of N. Liberal Movement 5% Puteikis and K. Krivickas 2% The Anti-Corruption Coalition of N. Lithuanian Freedom Union (liberals) 2% Puteikis and K. Krivickas 4% Lithuanian People's Party 1% Lithuanian Freedom Union (liberals) 4% Lithuanian Green Party <1% Lithuanian People's Party 1% The Way of Courage <1% Lithuanian Green Party 1% Lithuanian List <1% The Way of Courage <1% Would not vote 4% Lithuanian List <1% Don't know/Refused to answer 44% *Decided and likely voters are those who would or probably would vote, and who also named a valid 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% political party. 15 Do you believe that democracy is the best possible form of government for Lithuania or not? Yes, it is the best possible 9% form of government for our country. 7% No, there are other forms of government that could be equally good for our country. 19% No, there are other forms of government that are better than democracy. 65% Don't know/Refused to answer 16 Some people argue that the party choices in our country’s politics are too limited and that new political forces should provide other alternatives in future elections. To what extent do you agree or disagree with this statement? Strongly agree 15% Somewhat agree 34% Somewhat disagree 20% Strongly disagree 28% Don't know/Refused to answer 4% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 17 Some people argue that the party choices in our country’s politics are too limited and that new political forces should provide other alternatives in future elections. To what extent do you agree or disagree with this statement? Youth 18-29 25% 36% 14% 19% 6% n=165 All Respondents 15% 34% 20% 28% 4% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Strongly agree Somewhat agree Somewhat disagree Strongly disagree Don't know/Refused to answer 18 Media Preferences From which source do you get most of your daily social and political news? Public television and radio broadcasters, such as LRT, LRT radio 45% Online news sources, such as online newspapers websites and blogs 32% Commercial television and radio broadcasters, such as TV3, LNK, M-1, RC 14% Social media such as Facebook, Twitter, Instagram, LinkedIn 4% Offline sources, such as interactions with family, friends, or colleagues 2% Major newspapers, such as Lietuvos rytas, Verslo žinios, Respublika, Kauno diena 2% Don't know/Refused to answer 1% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 20 How reliable or unreliable do you find the following sources of news: Very reliable Somewhat reliable Somewhat unreliable Very unreliable Don't know/Refused to answer National Public TV/ Radio 23% 58% 13% 3%4% National commercial TV/ Radio 13% 56% 23% 4%4% Western TV/Radio 8% 37% 15% 4% 36% Russian TV/Radio 3% 16% 28% 21% 32%