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Phd-Thesis-Full.Pdf (2.579Mb) University of Plymouth PEARL https://pearl.plymouth.ac.uk 01 University of Plymouth Research Outputs University of Plymouth Research Outputs 1998-08-10 Socio-economic and Environmental Impacts of Technological Change in Bangladesh Agriculture Rahman, S http://hdl.handle.net/10026.1/5433 All content in PEARL is protected by copyright law. Author manuscripts are made available in accordance with publisher policies. Please cite only the published version using the details provided on the item record or document. In the absence of an open licence (e.g. Creative Commons), permissions for further reuse of content should be sought from the publisher or author. SOCIO-ECONOMIC AND ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS OF TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE IN BANGLADESH AGRICULTURE by Sanzidur Rahman A dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy Examination Committee Dr. Jayant K. Routray (Chairman) Professor A.T.M. Nurul Amin (Member) Dr. Gopal B. Thapa (Member) Dr. Gunner K. Hansen (Member) External Examiner Professor PingSun Leung Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics University of Hawaii at Manoa 3050 Maile Way, Gilmore 115, Honolulu Hawaii 96822, USA Nationality Bangladeshi Previous Degree(s) M.S. Agriculture (Agricultural Systems) Chiang Mai University, Chiang Mai, Thailand B.Sc.Ag.Econ. (Hons.) Bangladesh Agricultural University, Mymensingh, Bangladesh Scholarship Donor Government of Japan Research Grant HSD, AIT and AITAA, Bangkok, Thailand BRAC, Dhaka, Bangladesh Asian Institute of Technology School of Environment, Resources and Development Bangkok, Thailand August 1998 1 ACKNOWLEDGEMENT This dissertation would not have been completed without the contribution of many faculty members, staff and friends of School of Environment, Resources and Development, Asian Institute of Technology, to all of whom I am sincerely indebted. I express my deepest gratitude and respect to Dr. Jayant K. Routray, chairman of my dissertation committee, whose generous support, advises, recommendations and criticisms have guided me throughout the doctoral program to the final completion of this research. I am particularly grateful to him for introducing me to the area of regional planning techniques for applied research by imparting his expertise and insights in this field. I am also sincerely indebted to Professor ATM Nurul Amin and Dr. Gopal B. Thapa, members of my dissertation committee, whose advises, recommendations and critical evaluations at various stages of this research kept me focussed on the problem area. Comments and criticisms from Dr. Gunner K. Hansen, member of my dissertation committee are also gratefully acknowledged. My special gratitude is due to Professor PingSun Leung, University of Hawaii at Manoa, external examiner of my dissertation, for providing a thorough evaluation and approval of this research. I am especially thankful to the farmers whose patience and sincerity in answering the lengthy survey questionnaire and other form of interviews made this study possible. Congeniality, friendship, and warm relation provided by friends and their families during this three-year of doctoral study had been stimulating and cheerful, particularly, Khan Kamaluddin Ahmed, MA Kabir Chowdhury, Kamaluddin, and Mustafa Kamal. Special thanks are due to Government of Japan for providing the generous scholarship support through AIT and HSD/AIT, AITAA, and BRAC (Bangladesh) for providing required research funds. Encouragement from Dr. AMR Chowdhury and MG Sattar of RED, BRAC have been stimulating. Above all, I am blessed with the love, patience and encouragement from my father, source of my inspiration and dedication. Also, my brothers, sisters and friends (Zahurul Haque and Nasima Akhter) for their understanding and encouragement throughout my stay in Thailand. Sanzidur Rahman 2 DEDICATION This dissertation is dedicated to my demised mother, Begum Shahan-Ara-Shafi, who could not see the success of her son. Sanzidur Rahman 3 ABSTRACT Widespread controversies exist on the delayed consequences of technological change or ‘Green Revolution’ technology in agriculture largely due to the approach utilized in the evaluation process and the extent of issues covered. Early evaluations, focussing on issues of production, employment, and income only, failed to account for the delayed consequences of technological change on regional variations, gender equity, poverty and the environment. The present study employed a holistic approach to evaluate the impacts of technological change in agriculture, specifically, on productivity, employment, gender equity, income distribution, poverty and the environment at the local level and on regional development, aggregate crop production and foodgrain sustainability at the national level. The overall hypothesis is that though modern agricultural technology increased production, employment and income, it has exacerbated income inequality, poverty, gender gap in employment, regional disparity and environmental degradation and is threatening food production sustainability. In this context, the research is designed with a blend of economic (crop input-output), biophysical (soil fertility) and behavioral (farmers’ perception) analyses to capture the diverse issues (employment, income, income distribution, poverty and environment). Database of the study consists of time-series data for 47 years (1948 – 1994) and farm-level cross-section data of cropyear 1996 collected from three agro-ecological regions including soil samples from representative locations and information on infrastructural facilities. Economic principles and concepts are used as the basic tools of analysis and hypotheses are empirically tested using quantitative as well as qualitative techniques. The results of the analyses validated the concerns raised at the outset of the study. At the national level, though technological change played a significant role in raising regional agricultural development level, it has also contributed significantly to regional disparity with most regions being stagnant and underdeveloped over the past 20 years. Technological change also significantly contributed to aggregate crop productivity over the past 30 years. Returns to scale estimation using conventional factors revealed that ‘constant return to scale’ prevails in Bangladesh agriculture. Incorporation of technological and infrastructural factors in the estimation revealed ‘increasing returns to scale’. But, declining productivity of modern rice, the major vehicle of technological change, is raising doubts on sustaining food production. The current increase in food production is largely due to switching from local to modern rice varieties and may not be sustainable in the long run. Trend analyses of 47 years of foodgrain (rice and wheat) production revealed that productivity is reaching a saturation value of 2,200 kg/ha, raising doubts on food production sustainability to meet the growing demand for food. Farm-level analysis of farmers’ response to price changes revealed that probability of adopting modern technology increases with output price rise and decreases with input price rise. Intensity of modern technology adoption is higher in underdeveloped regions. Farmers have moderately inelastic response to price changes for foodgrain crops and highly elastic response for non-cereal crops. Consideration of the possibility of switching between local and modern foodgrain varieties, that is, allowing movement along a ‘meta-production function’ improved the elasticity estimates for foodgrain crops. Highly elastic response is observed for soil fertility improvement in foodgrain production and inelastic response for non-cereal crops. The response to infrastructural development and education work in opposite direction for these crop groups. While infrastructure development and farmers’ education level increase input 4 demand and output supply of non-cereal crops, these decreases input demand and output supply of foodgrain. At the local level, although modern agricultural technology significantly increased employment, input demand, prices and crop incomes, the gain from employment remained skewed in favor of men and income in favor of large/medium farmers. Also, significantly lower wage is paid to female labor, if hired, indicating further discrimination against women. Land and other resource owners are the highest beneficiaries of technological change. Production of modern varieties alone contributes 35% to total income inequality, thereby, indicating unexpected adversity of modern technology on income distribution. Poverty is estimated to be highest in ‘high adopter villages’ with 63% of population below poverty line, thus, reinforcing the unexpected adversity associated with technological change. ‘Declining soil fertility’, ‘effect on human health’, ‘reduction of fish catch’, and ‘increase in insect, pest and disease attacks’ are the major environmental impacts of technological change identified in the study regions as perceived by farmers. Soil fertility positively influences prices, modern technology adoption, crop and agricultural income and negatively influences demand for labor, animal power and pesticides, and non-agricultural income. Infrastructure development also positively influences prices and non-agricultural income and negatively influences technology adoption and input demand (except animal power and agricultural credit). The ‘medium adopter’ villages characterized by diversified cropping system, larger with land endowment
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