sustainability Article Assessing the Impacts of Climate Variations on the Potato Production in Bangladesh: A Supply and Demand Model Approach Arifa Jannat 1,2 , Yuki Ishikawa-Ishiwata 3 and Jun Furuya 4,* 1 Graduate School of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Tsukuba, 1-1-1 Tennodai, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-8572, Japan;
[email protected] 2 Institute of Agribusiness and Development Studies, Bangladesh Agricultural University, Mymensingh 2202, Bangladesh 3 Global and Local Environment Co-Creation Institute (GLEC), Ibaraki University, 2-1-1 Bunkyo, Mito-city, Ibaraki 310-8512, Japan;
[email protected] 4 Social Sciences Division, Japan International Research Center for Agricultural Sciences, 1-1 Owashi, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-8686, Japan * Correspondence:
[email protected]; Tel.: +81-29-838-6304 Abstract: From the perspective of nutritional security, we investigated the influence of climate change on potato production in Bangladesh using a supply and demand model by considering the potato as an important non-cereal food crop. To provide an outlook on the variation in potato supplies and market prices under changing climatic factors (temperature, rainfall, and solar-radiation), the yield, area, import, and demand functions were assessed using district-level time-series data of Bangladesh (1988–2013), disaggregated into seven climatic zones. Results suggest that temperatures above or below the optimal range (18–22 ◦C) lowered yields. Little rainfall and low solar radiation hinder potato cultivation areas during the potato maturity stage. During the simulated period, the annual production was projected to rise from 88 to 111 million metric tons (MT), with an Citation: Jannat, A.; Ishikawa-Ishiwata, equilibrium farm price of 155 to 215 US dollars MT−1.