Assessing the Impacts of Climate Variations on the Potato Production in Bangladesh: a Supply and Demand Model Approach
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sustainability Article Assessing the Impacts of Climate Variations on the Potato Production in Bangladesh: A Supply and Demand Model Approach Arifa Jannat 1,2 , Yuki Ishikawa-Ishiwata 3 and Jun Furuya 4,* 1 Graduate School of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Tsukuba, 1-1-1 Tennodai, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-8572, Japan; [email protected] 2 Institute of Agribusiness and Development Studies, Bangladesh Agricultural University, Mymensingh 2202, Bangladesh 3 Global and Local Environment Co-Creation Institute (GLEC), Ibaraki University, 2-1-1 Bunkyo, Mito-city, Ibaraki 310-8512, Japan; [email protected] 4 Social Sciences Division, Japan International Research Center for Agricultural Sciences, 1-1 Owashi, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-8686, Japan * Correspondence: [email protected]; Tel.: +81-29-838-6304 Abstract: From the perspective of nutritional security, we investigated the influence of climate change on potato production in Bangladesh using a supply and demand model by considering the potato as an important non-cereal food crop. To provide an outlook on the variation in potato supplies and market prices under changing climatic factors (temperature, rainfall, and solar-radiation), the yield, area, import, and demand functions were assessed using district-level time-series data of Bangladesh (1988–2013), disaggregated into seven climatic zones. Results suggest that temperatures above or below the optimal range (18–22 ◦C) lowered yields. Little rainfall and low solar radiation hinder potato cultivation areas during the potato maturity stage. During the simulated period, the annual production was projected to rise from 88 to 111 million metric tons (MT), with an Citation: Jannat, A.; Ishikawa-Ishiwata, equilibrium farm price of 155 to 215 US dollars MT−1. Between 2014 and 2030, the nation’s per-capita Y.; Furuya, J. Assessing the Impacts of potato intake is expected to increase from 49 to 55 kg year−1 because of changing dietary patterns. Climate Variations on the Potato According to the estimated equilibrator, scenario simulations that incorporated various dimensions Production in Bangladesh: A Supply of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios indicate that potato production and and Demand Model Approach. Sustainability 2021, 13, 5011. https:// consumption can increase in the future. doi.org/10.3390/su13095011 Keywords: climate change; econometric model; outlook; potato market Academic Editor: Hossein Azadi Received: 9 March 2021 Accepted: 26 April 2021 1. Introduction Published: 29 April 2021 Climate change will make hunger eradication more challenging, with reduced agricul- tural production, increased food prices, and reduced food availability, with consequent Publisher’s Note: MDPI stays neutral adverse health effects [1–3]. To ensure a supply sufficient to satisfy global food demand in with regard to jurisdictional claims in 2050, agricultural production must be boosted by 60% [4]. However, the yields of major published maps and institutional affil- staple crops are projected to decline considerably because of changing climate. Research iations. results indicate that climate change is expected to reduce yields of maize (20–45%), wheat (5–50%), rice (20–30%), and soybeans (30–60%) [4] by 2100. Agriculture must transition to more productive, resilient, and sustainable processes to cope with changing climate [4]. Most economically developing and low-income countries rely on cereal crops for their Copyright: © 2021 by the authors. nutritional security. Research findings have demonstrated that 1.9–2.3 billion people obtain Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. 60–70% of their iron and zinc from the major staple crops: rice, wheat, and maize [5]. This article is an open access article Few researchers have reported attempts to assess the effects of dietary diversity on distributed under the terms and nutritional deficiency, but their findings have shown that protein, iron, and zinc deficiencies conditions of the Creative Commons are more concentrated in the Global South than in other regions [6–9]. Therefore, reliance Attribution (CC BY) license (https:// on these cereal crops alone will not be sufficient to close the gap separating food supply and creativecommons.org/licenses/by/ demand. Primary crops such as rice, wheat, and maize are sufficiently calorific to prevent 4.0/). Sustainability 2021, 13, 5011. https://doi.org/10.3390/su13095011 https://www.mdpi.com/journal/sustainability Sustainability 2021, 13, 5011 2 of 22 hunger, but they fail to provide all necessary nutrients for a balanced diet. Under these circumstances, research assessing major non-cereal supply and demand scenarios under climate change variations must be conducted immediately. Currently, the United Nations (UN) Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) is promoting tubers as economical and nutritious food crops that can improve food and nutritional security in many economically developing countries [10]. Therefore, through substituting staples such as wheat, rice, and maize partly with potatoes, the production and consumption of this crop are expected to increase. Due to its position between the Himalayas and the Bay of Bengal, Bangladesh, an economically developing nation, is regarded as among the world’s most climate-sensitive countries. Natural hazards such as high salinity, hurricanes, irregular rains, drought, high temperatures, and flash flooding have increased in severity and frequency because of atmospheric warming [11]. These increasing occurrences resulting from global warming adversely affect crop production both directly and indirectly. Bangladesh is endowed with highly fertile soil and moderate rainfall and temperature conditions that can pro- duce various crops year-round. Compared with other economically developing countries, Bangladesh has certain advantages including rich genetic and ecosystem diversity and enormous dedicated human resources that are willing to participate in diverse agricultural activities [12,13]. In this respect, crop intensification and diversification are excellent strate- gies for combining the production and consumption of main cereal crops with non-cereal crops. Therefore, Bangladesh, with its scarce agricultural land, is perhaps the best-suited environment to meet growing needs for food by increasing potato production on small patches of agricultural land. Potatoes constitute the world’s main non-cereal food crop, ranking fourth behind rice, wheat, and maize. [14]. Furthermore, because of their climate-resilient characteristics, they are useful to replace cereal crops [14]. This high-yielding crop has rich nutrient contents [15,16]. Suitable potato cultivation is possible under different and changing climatic environments. Moreover, because of the temperate climates in Bangladesh, they are a particularly suitable crop [17–19]. To investigate future scenarios of potato supply and demand, Bangladesh was chosen as a temperate region and the seventh-largest potato producing country in the world as well as the third-largest potato producing country in Asia after China and India [20]. The annual production of potatoes in Bangladesh is estimated at 11 million metric tons (MT) [21]. Bangladesh has already attained food security status, although nutritional security remains questionable [22]. According to estimates, more than 20 million people in Bangladesh are adversely affected by chronic vitamin A, iron, and zinc deficiencies, which more strongly affect pregnant women and infants [23]. However, the changing climate has had an adverse effect on food and nutritional security in Bangladesh [24]. It has been predicted that major crop production in Bangladesh might decline by 30% because of negative consequences of climate change [25]. Therefore, considering both population growth and climate change, and knowing that rice is the major staple food in Bangladesh, an urgent need exists for specific examination of alternative crops that can stabilize the country’s economy and change its dietary patterns. Potatoes constitute the second largest crop in terms of cultivated area (after rice), corresponding to 3% of Bangladesh’s total area and providing as many as 6.0% of the daily per-capita calories and protein consumed in rural areas because of the abundant supply. It is regarded as a partial substitute in many households [21,26]. Reports of studies using supply and demand modeling of major cereals conducted under changing climatic conditions are scarce in the literature [27,28]. Salam et al. examined the rice production and price volatility in Bangladesh in light of climate change, reporting that the yield of modern and local varieties of rice fluctuated during the pre-monsoon (December–January) and dry (March–May) seasons [29]. Similarly, the yield variation was higher under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 6.0 (2.0–3.7 ◦C) than under RCP 8.5 (3.2–5.4 ◦C) where each scenario is more suitable for the South Asian region, including Bangladesh [29]. Another study revealed that climate change harmed Sustainability 2021, 13, 5011 3 of 22 the rice yield in India; more specifically, higher temperatures lowered rice yields in most states, except for those states at high altitudes [30]. Researchers have also emphasized the supply and demand elasticities of major agricultural commodities in the U.S.A. [31]. Studies have proven that supply and demand models are effective and fruitful approaches for elucidating the consequences of climate change on the production and market price dynamics of different