Sensitivity Testing Current Migration Patterns to Climate Change and Variability in Bangladesh

Sensitivity testing current migration patterns to climate change and variability in Bangladesh

Dominic Kniveton, Maxmillan Martin and Pedram Rowhani

Working paper 5

An output of research on climate change related migration in Bangladesh, conducted by Refugee and Migratory Movements Research Unit (RMMRU), University of Dhaka, and Sussex Centre for Migration Research (SCMR), University of Sussex, with support from Climate & Development Knowledge Network (CDKN)

Refugee and Migratory Movements Research Unit Sattar Bhaban (4th Floor) 3/3-E, Bijoynagar, Dhaka-1000, Bangladesh. Tel: +880-2-9360338, Fax: +880-2-8362441 E-mail: [email protected], Web: www.rmmru.org | www.samren.net

Sussex Centre for Migration Research School of Global Studies University of Sussex Falmer, Brighton BN1 9SJ, UK Tel: +44 1273 873394, Fax : +44 1273 620662 Email: [email protected], Web: www.sussex.ac.uk/migration

About the authors:

Dominic Kniveton is Professor of Climate Science and Society at the Department of Geography, School of Global Studies, University of Sussex, UK, Email: [email protected]

Maxmillan Martin is a PhD student at the Department of Geography, School of Global Studies, University of Sussex, UK

Pedram Rowhani is Lecturer in Geography at the Department of Geography, School of Global Studies, University of Sussex, UK

Sensitivity testing current migration patterns to climate change and variability in Bangladesh

Introduction

It is widely recognised that the decision to migrate is multi-causal and context specific. According to the Foresight conception of migration and environmental change migration can be seen as being driven or de- termined by the multi-scale influences of social, economic, demographic, environmental and political factors such as kinship links, job opportunities, population growth, loss of land and conflict, to give just a few examples; while the ability to migrate is controlled by household and individual access to resources, family obligations and migration networks (Foresight 2012). The literature on climate change is abundant with quantifications of the known uncertainties in estimating the future climate with, for example, changes in rainfall by different climate models not only varying in extent but the sign of change even for the same greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Within this environment of uncertainty, multi-causality and context specificity it was suggested by Black et al (2011) that future changes in migration in the context of climate change should be assessed by first identifying the major migration flows in a region; then identify the drivers of these flows and the intervening factors affecting migration before assessing the sensitivity of these drivers to changes in climate. This decision to focus on existing migration flows follows the recognition by a number of migration scholars of the importance of migration networks in facilitating and allowing migration (e.g. Massey et al 1998). This is not to say that new migration flows will not emerge in the future but to emphasise that the impact of climate change on migration is best viewed as being mediated through the wider structural, institutional and agency forces controlling household and individual behavior. In the following document we highlight the current major flows in Bangladesh before highlighting the drivers of these flows before exploring how sensitive these drivers are to the projected changes in the climate.

Migration trends Bangladesh has a long history of migration with the largest flow of migration being within the country, especially from rural to urban areas, Other flows include cross-border migration to India, finding work in other parts of Asia such as the Gulf region or Malaysia or moving to European countries or the US. Such movements usually follow established migration routes and get the help of social networks for resources and facilitation. While migration can be permanent, on the whole it is temporary in nature with migrants working in different locations for short or long periods before returning, and during the process of migration trying to earn more, save enough, send home some money and bring back some more. Whether permanent or temporary many migrants keep their links with their original places intact. On a scale of voluntary to forced, migrations tend to be more of a voluntary nature. However, in areas affected by environmental/ climatic shocks – such as floods, riverbank erosion and cyclones – or chronic stresses – such as salinisation, sometimes after a cyclonic storm surge – movement becomes more of an imperative if not inevi- tability as a coping strategy to escape increased environmental stress and limited economic opportunity.

Broadly four main types of migration have been mentioned in the literature. They are internal displacement in the aftermath of disasters including floods, cyclones and such sudden environmental shocks; internal migration to villages, towns and cities for short or long periods in search of job; cross-border migration to India; and international migration to the Gulf countries, Malaysia, European countries and elsewhere. While there are different overlapping flows of migration (See table 1), several of them are interconnected. For example, people may migrate to a town for work and move on from there to a foreign country. Some- times those affected by disasters join their kith and kin living in the city or across the border in India. There is also evidence to show that remittances boost the local economy in places of international migrants’ origin, attracting internal migrants from elsewhere in the country.

Internal displacement: The short term and short distance movement of populations is often an immediate response by people exposed to disasters (IOM, 2009). Disasters associated with climate extremes influence population mobility and relocation, affecting host and origin communities (IPCC, 2012).Over 50 million people are affected by disaster events every five years on an average in Bangladesh. While the coasts are exposed to a severe cyclone roughly every three years, about a quarter of the country is inundated annually during the monsoon rains (Alam and Murray 2005, ActionAid 2012). Internal displacement is often triggered by major disasters like the 1998 flood that inundated 61 % of the country and made an estimated 45 million people homeless (Alam et al. 2011). From 1970 to 2009, Bangladesh witnessed 26 major cyclones. For example Cyclone Sidr in 2007 displaced 650,000 people and killed 3,447. In 2009, two cyclones hit Bangaldesh - Bijli and Aila. About 200,000 people were displaced by Cyclone Bijli (Akter 2011). Many of the people most affected by cyclones are villagers whose farming and fishing livelihoods are vulnerable to destruction and have limited capacity to recover from livelihood shocks (World Bank 2012).

The flood of 1998 caused damages and losses of over $2 billion worth approximately 4.8 percent of GDP in agriculture, infrastructure, and industry/commerce sectors (World Bank 2010). Cyclone Sidr in 2007 caused damages and losses of $1.7 billion, or 2.6 percent of GDP. About half the losses were in the housing sector, followed by farms and infrastructure (ActionAid 2012). Riverbank erosion and moving on to the newly formed chars (riverine islands) is another form of movement that could be termed displacement. One example of such movement is migration from Kazipur in Sirajganj (Haque 1997, Hutton and Haque 2004). Due to changes in river flow, sedimentation and flood patterns riverbanks can shift several metres and some- time kilometres at a time as our field research in Chapai Nawabganj and Munshiganj shows (Martin et al , forthcoming). A number of studies have shown that internal displacement in Bangladesh is a widespread phenomenon (. (Zaman 1987, 1989; Hutton and Haque 2004; Alam, 1994; Chhabara2008). People who lose their homes in disasters often move on to slums in cities like Rajshahi, Khulna, Chittagong and Dhaka (IOM 2009). Such movement need not necessarily happen soon after the disaster. Environmental shocks and stresses disrupt or limit opportunities for livelihoods and cities offer better opportunities for income generation. It becomes more of economic migration as discussed in the following section.

Internal migration:

In the case of Bangladesh, village-to-city is the most prevalent mode of migration, making up two-thirds of total migration, followed by overseas migration that forms a little less than a quarter (24%) and village-to- village a tenth (Afsar 2003). More than 80% of incomes in some villages come from outside the village, with families spending part of the year away (Toufique, 2002). A 1600-household survey in northwest of Bangla- desh found that 19% of households of different income levels migrated in the lean farming season (CARE- Bangladesh and DFID, 2002). This marks the trend that for a quarter of the chronically poor households, seasonal migration is an important livelihood strategy. After cyclonic storm surges that leave lands saline, people migrate during the winter to towns when there is no farm activity in nearby villages as our studies show (Martin et al, forthcoming).

A net effect of rural to urban migration is that cities of Bangladesh are booming. Government figures show that internal migration to urban areas as such is showing a sharp increase (Planning Commission, 2010b). Dhaka’s slums, for instance, are home to 3.4 million people with about 400,000 migrants arriving each year (World Bank, 2009). During the 1990s the urban growth in South Asia was estimated at 3.4%, which is over four times the rate of cities in developed countries (World Bank 1997, Ruback 2004). An estimated half a million people migrate to cities every year (Islam, 2012), for better and more diverse incomes. Most of them come from coastal areas and villages. Historically a decline in the farming income of village households from 59 to 44 per cent between 1987-1988 and 1999-2000 has contributed to this movement. Re- mittances from migrants contribute upto 49 per cent of household income (Afsar, 2003). A large number of poor migrants work in the informal sector. About 2 million people in Dhaka city are associated with or supported by informal sector activities such as rickshaw pulling (Kreibich 2012). At the same time, some forms of economic migration tend to be forced to a large extent. One such movement is monga or migration during times of food scarcity and lack of employment opportunities during September to November (Salahud- din et al). In 2007 about 36 per cent of poor households from greater Rangpur in Sirajganj district adopted migration to cope with the severity of monga. At least 100,000 people migrate each year from here alone (Khandkar 2012). Monga is widespread elsewhere in Bangladesh too, especially in the drought prone areas of the north-west. Anticipated drought conditions are expected to increase the seasonal famine conditions (Ramasamy et al 2007).

Cross-border migration: There have been movements between eastern and western parts of Bengal from pre-colonial times. The fertile and wet lands of the east attracted many people from the west while many people migrated in the opposite direction too.. India’s partition in 1947 witnessed large-scale communal violence between Hindu and Muslim mobs, and one of the largest refugee flows in history. India’s 1951 census recorded 2.523 million refugees from East Bengal (Hill et al 2005). The 1971 liberation war saw another flow of 8 to 10 million people – though most have gone back since (Library of Congress 2012). Possibly there has been continuous flow of migrants to India since, with for example, the Census of India 2001 counting 3.7 million migrants from Bangladesh (Sarkar 2010). According to some estimates millions of Bangladeshis have migrated to In- dia since 1950, mostly to the Indian states of Assam and Tripura and the reasons for their movement in- cluded disasters, scarcity and degradation of land and poverty (Reuveny 2008)..

An estimated 2 million people have moved to West Bengal in India from the Khulna region of Bangladesh, affected by the Farakka Barrage on the Indian side that was built in 1975 (Swain 1996). The barrage that diverted part of the Ganges flow to the Hooghly to wash out slit from the Calcutta port changed the river- flow patterns downstream, contributing to erosion and water stress in Bangladesh (Swain 1996, WARPO 2006). It is not only water stress that contributes to cross-border movements, but also other environmental stresses and shocks. Our earlier research suggests that people from border villages of Bangladesh often moved across the borders for work and trade and to recover after disasters like cyclones. Villagers at Chorpka and Durlogpur of Chapai Nawabganj, for instance, said many people used to cross the Indian border five kilometers away as temporary migrants or day labourers to rice paddies or to trade in goods and cattle. Tight border control since 1995 has restricted this movement, but there is a feeling that international migration still continues in large numbers (Martin et al, forthcoming)..

International migration: Although in a scale smaller than internal migration, international migration is also increasing. It is estimated that about 400,000 to 500,000 workers migrate abroad to seek jobs yearly (Planning Commission, 2011). Yet, international migration is still too costly for most of Bangladeshi families (Black et al., 2011b). Bangla- desh is the 6th largest recipient of remittances in the world (World Bank, 2011). In 2008, Bangladesh ac- counted for about 2% of remittances globally and 11% of it in South Asia. The remittance ﬂow grew by 24% during 2009 even during the global ﬁnancial crisis that otherwise reduced money flow in general in the region. It exceeded 4 times the total aid and 9 times the foreign direct investment (FDI) received by the country (Siddiqui, 2009). Remittances account for 11% of the GDP (Ratha et al., 2010).

During the 1950s and 1960s, Bangladeshi workers migrated abroad, especially to UK and obtained British citizenship by naturalisation after staying four to ﬁve years. People from Talukpur, in Habiganj, and Jalalga- on in the Greater Sylhet area have joined transnational communities in the UK, the US, South East Asia and the Middle East (Gardner 2009). During the 1970s Gulf counties began to attract migrant labourers. Gulf countries, Malaysia and developed countries such as the UK provide migrants with better economic opportunities. The economic development boosted by their remittances, in turn, gives jobs to internal migrants. For instance, Jalalgaon in Sylhet, from where many people migrate to the UK, offers local jobs in construction and the service sector (Gardner 2009)). At the same time, the demand for remittances in such places is often driven by high rates of land-ownership requiring high investments, coupled with decline in the size of holdings, reducing profitability (Kuhn 2003). It follows that migration patterns are complex, often influ- enced by a set of economic, environmental, socio-political and demographic factors.

Drivers of Migration All the above streams of migration can be seen to be influence by a set of drivers, namely economic, environmental, social, political and demographic (Foresight 2011) as explained below.

Economic drivers: Migration and mobility are of ‘critical importance’ for the rural poor, especially during the lean season and make up an important livelihood strategy (Afsar, 2003). Migrants can secure jobs in urban areas more easi- ly than in rural areas (Afsar, 2003), about 60% finding work within a week of arrival (CUS, 2006). Rickshaw pulling and garment industry jobs are the most common livelihood options (Mbugua, 2011). As such livelihoods depending on natural resources become less reliable. So in effect, rural-to-urban migration, especially to big cities like Dhaka, is primarily for work. Sample studies among migrants have shown up to 94% of respondents citing work as their only reason for moving into Dhaka (Ruback 2004).

Male semi-skilled or unskilled workers who expect to gain skills dominate in the voluntary internal migrant population (Black et al., 2008). For the skilled workers migration offers chances of upward socio-economic mobility. Early settlers in cities represent a successful section of the society with good incomes, job-related benefits and permanent housing that allows them an existence independent of their village roots (Kuhn 2003). However a second wave of migrants has resulted from a further deterioration of village livelihoods and security (Kuhn 2003, Gardner 1995).

Migration provides a way out of poverty. For instance, in Achingaon, a poor remote village in Manikganj district where 48 percent of the families are landless, less than a third of men are engaged in farming (Rao 20 09) with about 27 percent of male migrants, working in garment factories and welding workshops or as labourers abroad (Rao 2012). The garments industry that employs millions has also impacted the labour market in Char Nalsonda a riverine island. The local people learned about this option from labourers of a neighbouring char who passed through their village on their way to Dhaka after the 1988 ﬂood (Leine 2009).

Environmental drivers

Researchers such as Black (2001) have critiqued the notion of desperate migration driven by environmental changes (Tickle, 1989, Myers, 1995, Homer-Dixon, and Percival, 1996). While migration can be a response and a ‘survival strategy’ (McGregor, 1993), it can be ‘adaptive’ or disruptive, leading to ‘secondary disasters’ (Stal and Warner, 2009). However, economic and social marginalisation leading to spatial marginalisation (Leine 2009) is a dominant theme in the climate migration literature.

While there is still need for better empirical evidence and conceptual clarity (Zetter, 2009), environmental drivers do play a role in migration. Rural–urban migration is often an important coping strategy for villagers, especially after sudden climatic shocks. It could also be a more proactive adaptive strategy. On the other hand, growing water stress and climate variability reduce agricultural productivity, driving rural- urban migration. In the drought-prone northern regions such as Rangpur, Gaibandha, Kurigram, Nilphama- ri, where local employment options are limited during the lean season of September through December, the landless people often end up in poverty and hunger. Every year boys and men from these areas migrate to cities and better-off villages for work (Siddiqui, 2009).

It has been estimated that riverbank erosion displaces 50,000 to 200,000 people in Bangladesh every year (Mehedi, 2010). The erosion takes away not only people’s homes but often their farming land as well (Za- man, 1989). Sometimes communities get displaced several times on account of erosion. A mid-1980s study in Kazipur sub-district showed that two-thirds of the inhabitants of the Jamuna-Brahmaputra floodplain experienced displacement at least once, about 17 per cent three times and 15 per cent 10 times (Hutton and Haque 2003). A survey in Hatia showed 16 per cent households moved to cities to cope with the impacts of riverbank erosion and 22 per cent migrated after tidal surges (Foresight, 2011).

Frequent cyclones are one of the main drivers of migration. Mehedi (2010) found that after the cyclone Aila in 2009, many people moved to other towns due to lack of working opportunities in the affected areas. More than half the migrants said they had to move out because they had lost houses, belongings and land. Extremely poor people were forced to migrate because they had lost their opportunity for daily income.

Demographic Drivers Demographic pressures make up another driver of migration. At 1033 people per square kilometre, Bangla- desh has one of the highest population densities in the world (UN, 2010). For instance, although the population growth rate is expected to decline from 1.36% to 0.71% in the future, the net population growth in coastal areas will increase population density (WARPO, 2004). In consequence, the poor are likely to be forced to live in more marginal low-lying areas that are vulnerable to flooding and storm surges (Paul and Routray, 2011). As farming get affected, coastal cities such as Khulna are likely to receive more migrants from villages too. At the same time, net migration to the coast is slower than in many other countries as the lower population growth rate in coastal areas indicates (World Bank 2010).

Demographic pressures could further change migration patterns, even from points of migrant destinations. For instance, Dhaka floods could be even worse in future with models predicting a wetter future for Bang- ladesh (IPCC 2007) and an increase in the city’s population fuelled by its growth (Braun and Aßheuer 2011). It could mean an increase in the number of people living in informal settlements and slums (Centre for Ur- ban Studies et al.2006). City slums are vulnerable to floods. During 1975 to 2005 Dhaka’s built up area grew by 270%, often at the cost of water bodies and low-lying agricultural lands that contribute to flood drainage.

Social and Political Drivers The refugees flows of 1947 and 1971, besides the 1980s movement of Chakma refugees were political. In 1947 it was a two-way flow of Musilm and Hindu refugees after India was partitioned on religious lines after Independence. In 1971 the issue was persecution and atrocities by the army of Pakistan leading to the Bangladeshi liberation war (Library of Congress 2012). Since the mid-1980s tens of thousands of Chakma and other ethnic-minority refugees from Bangladesh (collectively known as Jumma) fled to India after conflict between the Bangladeshi military and the Shanti Bahini a guerrilla army that fights for greater auton- omy in the Chittagong Hill Tracts (UNHCR 2013). Locally, politics and social dynamics can trigger migration, especially in the char areas where land tenure is temporary and ad hoc. In such areas, where poor people settle in newly formed chars. many communities are under the power of local mafias (Raillon, 2010). Local- ly powerful ‘talukdars’ and ‘jotedars’ (chieftains) gain control over accretion lands by using violence. They use violence, dispossession, murder, rape and confiscation of assets, and this makes resettlement of the poor after natural hazards a socio-political issue. Many people regard the process of land-grabbing as ordi- nary as the process of land erosion (Zaman, 1989). Although the Government promotes rehabilitation by moving the landless and the displaced to char (delta islands), the new settlers are often intimidated by the local powers and many have to go back to their original regions (ibid). The Government also acknowledges that the vested interest groups in rural and urban areas occupy pieces of land by using unjust powers (Planning Commission, 2011). Such landgrabbing has triggered public protests and there is government and civil society action against it (Feldman and Geisler, 2011).

On the positive side, social networks recruit and support new migration. It is families, extended families and neighbourhoods that prospective migrants turn to for support and advice. People prefer to stay with family and friends, linked to social networks (Barnet and Weber 2009), and continue to live in ways familiar to them (Perch-Nielson et al. 2008).

Climate sensitivity of migration

The geography of Bangladesh makes the country vulnerable to the impacts of climate change and variability. Two-thirds of the country is at less than 5 meters above the mean sea level, vulnerable to flooding from rain and river overflows. Much of the country is in the Ganges, Brahmaputra, and Meghna delta. Though only 7 per cent of the basins of these rivers lie in Bangladesh, upstream rain seriously affect flooding within the country as they combine a peak flow of 180,000 cubic metres a second, the second highest in the world (World Bank 2010). Besides Bangladesh has been facing gradual onset climate stresses and sudden shocks, including water shortage, cyclone, floods and coastal/ delta erosion (EM-DAT, 2011). Over the past decade it has often been cited as an area that is one of the most vulnerable to climate change (Haq, 2001, Huq and Ayers, 2008). During 1991 -2010, Bangladesh was among the three countries — along with Myanmar and Honduras — most affected by extreme weather events (Harmeling, 2012). In such a background of extreme exposure, inevitably people livelihoods and movements have a climate footprint.

Climate change and variability could affect migration in a range of ways. As in the case of Bangladesh, more intense disasters like cyclones and extreme rain events could lead to destruction of habitats, livelihoods and infrastructure – while floods and salinisation of fields could make their impacts linger on (Rahman et al 2007). Yet at the same time, erratic or decreased rain could cause water shortages and reduce crop yields. Rising sea level and increased river flow could lead to more erosion or coastal flooding (Brown, 2008). Be- ing vulnerable to or experiencing climate processes and climate events, including extreme events, could influence the drivers of migration as explained above. The temporal and spatial scales of migration differ, depending on the level of exposure to the disaster, its continuing impacts, resources at hand for the migrants and other factors that facilitate of deter mobility (IPCC, 2011).

Tracing the interconnectedness between the different drivers of migration and their sensitivity to climate change and variation can be complex. There are interconnected factors to take note of. A recent study by Gray and Mueller (2012), for instance, showed that flooding is not a strong driver of the long-term mobility trend in Bangladesh; rather, crop failure is. Crop failure is not necessarily due to flooding, but a combined effect of late or untimely rains and an extreme rain event that follows. Research elsewhere in the subconti- nent suggests that such events and uncertainties are showing an upwardly trend during the monsoon season (Goswami et al 2005, Rajeevan and Guhathakura 2007). At the same time failures in cropping, salinisation due to shrimp farming or a storm surge and fresh water scarcity can make livelihoods more difficult (Mbugua, 2011) and contribute to migration. Field studies and reviews suggest that the lack of availability and access to safe drinking water is a problem in many regions and it has reached a ‘crisis level’ in the south-west (WARPO 2006,). This problem is caused by a reduced inflow of fresh water, over-extraction of groundwater, and prolonged drainage congestion (WARPO, 2006), but northward shift of the salinity line as a result of sea level rise could make it even worse (World Bank 2010). Amid such changes, it is likely that more people migrate or people migrate for longer to earn and contribute to the resilience back home. Emerging research suggests that thus migration is an important adaptation strategy for people to cope with/ adapt to climate change and such migration is likely to increase (Barnett and Webber, 2010, Fore- sight, 2011).

The linkages between climatic stresses and shocks and migration, however are not linear. As Kniveton et al. (2009) notes, international migration could increase or decrease as a response to such stimuli: “Interna- tional migration increased with loss of harvest and livestock, but decreased following a severe earthquake in El Salvador (Halliday, 2006); decreased in drought years in Burkina Faso (Henry et al., 2004) and Mali (Findley, 1994); both increased and decreased with declining rainfall in Mexico (Munshi 2003; Kniveton et al. 2008).” In Sub-Saharan Africa deteriorating rainfall conditions tend to increase urban migration; in Mali, however, during the 1983-85 droughts people affected could not afford to migrate to cities (Foresight 2011).Disaster-related migration is often short-term and involves short distances. For example, 88 per cent of migrant agricultural communities in Bangladesh were found to remain within two miles of their previous residence following the erosion of land and loss of homes due to flooding (Zaman 1989). Similar trends were found on cyclone response too. Such rapid-onset disasters lead to temporary displacement to nearby areas as people lack resources to move farther, and many return and reconstruct their homes (Piguet 2011).

Often seasonal and circular migration is an important livelihood option that helps communities gather resources from their destination while offsetting the resource pressure back home. Movement induced by climate change is likely to be short-term and occur internally over short distances, especially in low-income countries (Sward and Codjoe, 2012; Gemenne, 2011b).

Often rural-rural migration is common within the poor groups that are vulnerable to climate change. Mov- ing to cities often demands different skill sets, and more capital. This could be one more reason for people with less capital to get trapped in their original region, in environmentally vulnerable and degraded settings (Guzman et al., 2009; Foresight, 2011). Migration opportunities may be severely limited for poor people in such places. The emerging picture is that internal migration often intensifies following major droughts or famines (Kniveton et al., 2008).

Short, temporary migration induced by environmental stresses and shocks, often involve poor people. In- ternational migration is not a likely option for the poorest in general (Black et al 2011a; Kniveton et al., 2008). As such internal migration is a far more widespread phenomenon than external migration. World figures show that there are 214 million international migrants and 740 million internal migrants (IOM, 2011).

Most climate models indicate an increasing trend of monsoon rainfall and greater inflows into Bangladesh. The general circulation models (GCMs) forecast Bangladesh to be 1.5°C warmer and 4 percent wetter by the 2050s, so the extent of flooding is likely to increase as a recent study by the World Bank (2010) noted. This study on ‘The cost of adapting to extreme weather events in a changing climate’ calculated that compared to the current baseline of the 1998 flood in Bangladesh that climate change (as represented by one of the wetter scenarios of change) would give rise to a four percent increase in the total flooded area of Bangladesh, yet due to urban migration the number of people exposed to flooding would probably fall. It should be noted that 1998 was an exceptional flood year with about two thirds of the country flooded.

Much of the discussion so far has been about the how climate change impacts on the economic, social, political, demographic and environmental drivers of migration. Some statistical evidence about the sensitivity of migration to a context of climate stresses of flooding, river bank erosion and storm surges with migration comes from census data. In Figure 1 the district total, rural and urban population growth rates for the 2001 census are shown alongside the local (within district) urbanisation growth rates. This latter variable is de- rived from the ratio of urban growth to rural growth rate. Statistically significant lower population growth rates at the 95 %significance level are found in the coastal districts of Chandipur, Chittagong, Cox’s Bazar, Feni, Lakshmipur, Noakhali, Bageghat, Barguna, Barisal, Bhola, Jhalakati, Khulna, Patuakhali, Pirojpur, and Satkira (on average 1.35% p.a.) compared to the rest of Bangladesh (on average 1.7% p.a.). A major proba- ble reason for this lower population growth rate is migration away from these districts. Interestingly there is not a statistically significant difference between urban population growth or local urbanisation rates of these coastal districts and the rest of Bangladesh but there is of rural population growth rates (at 97.5% significance level). Rural population growth rates for districts affected by storm surges are 1% p.a. compared to 1.4% p.a. for those not affected by storm surges. Clearly this points to rural emigration in coastal regions. Turning to inland flooding Figures 2 and 3 shows the relationship between percentage of land flood in 1998 and population growth rate for all upazilas in Bangladesh for 2001 and 2011(see Figures 4 and 5 for spatial patterns). Clearly higher population growth rates are associated with less area flooded. The floods in 1998 were particularly catastrophic floods.

Overall the population growth rates in 2001 for upazilas suffering floods in 1998 of more than 75% of their area (1.27% p.a.)are on average likely to be 33% lower population than upazilas suffer 25% and less flooding (1.91% p.a.) (significant at the 99% level). Whilst 2011 population growth rates for these two categories are similar in that on average population growth is lower in upazilas that are more flooded this relationship is not significant at the 95% level in 2011. Turning to rural only upazilas the population growth rate for locations flooded more than 75% ( 1.33% p.a.)is 65% less than those flooded less than 25% (2.04% p.a.). This result is statistically significant at the 99% significance level; unlike that for 2011 where the difference is only slight, 1.08 compared to 1.28% respectively and not statistically significantly different. Likewise urban and mixed urban and rural upazilas that are flooded more than 75% are statistically significantly (at the 99% significance level) to have lower population growth rates than ones flooded less than 25% for the 2001 growth rates but not for 2011 growth rates. Growth rates in flooded (>75%) urban and mixed upazilas are 64% lower than ones with less than 25% flooding. Turning to river bank erosion upazilas suffering river bank erosion are statistically significantly likely to have lower population growth rates in both 2001 and 2011 than upazilas not suffering riverbank erosion: 36 and 75% less respectively.

Figure 1. Total, rural and urban population growth rates for the 2001 census are shown alongside the local (within district) urbanisation growth rates.

Figure 2. Relationship between average areas of upazila flooded in 1998 and 1990-2001 population growth rates for Bangladesh

Figure 3. Relationship between average area of upazila flooded in 1998 and 2001-2011 population growth rates for Bangladesh.

Figure 4. Flood extent for 1998 and upazilas prone to river bank erosion.

Figure 5. Population growth rates for 2001 and 2011 censuses.

Conclusion The question whether people will adapt in situ or change their migrate patterns in response to climate change and variability depends on a number of factors, including policies currently in place in Bangladesh that see migration as a failure of adaptation. Our findings point to a different take on the role of migration. While people migrate largely for economic benefits, climatic factors do play a role in such movements by affecting their livelihoods directly or indirectly. Therefore if supported properly migration can form a bene- ficial adaption strategy in itself. So for example two of the biggest climate-related problems currently projected to affect Bangladesh are inland flooding from the three great rivers and storms surges along the coast. In response to these hazards people might raise their dwellings by digging out part of their land and migrate seasonally to the cities to work in areas not affected by floods and use the money they earn to support their lives back at home. We feel this is not an indication of a failure to adapt but an adaption strategy in itself. Rather the failure to adapt may point to the lack of funds available to protect people from these impacts of climate variability and change.

In this working paper we have outlined the various migration flows in Bangladesh and discussed their drivers and the sensitivity of these drivers to climate change and variability. We have also for the first time quantified the impact on population growth and by extension migration of living in the context of the climate stresses of riverbank erosion, flooding and storm surges. Overall it can be seen that there is some evidence pointing to the idea that there is significant emigration from flood, storm surges and river bank erosion prone areas in Bangladesh . The extent of this emigration is shown to be greater in rural areas for storm surge areas whilst equally strong in urban and rural areas for flooding. The largest impact of these climate related stresses is shown for inland flooding (~65% lower growth rates in urban, rural and mixed flooded areas) and river bank erosion prone regions (up to 75% lower growth rates) rather than storm surges prone areas (up to 28% lower rural population growth rates), although the impact of river bank erosion seems to have decreased recently. It should be noted that these data do not attribute why people move just acknowledge that statistically, migration appears to be significantly higher in areas affected by storm surges, flooding and riverbank erosion than areas not affected by these events.

(Maps drawn by Pedram Rowhani)

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