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Sensitivity Testing Current Migration Patterns to Climate Change and Variability in Bangladesh

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Sensitivity Testing Current Migration Patterns to Climate Change and Variability in Bangladesh Sensitivity testing current migration patterns to climate change and variability in Bangladesh Dominic Kniveton, Maxmillan Martin and Pedram Rowhani Working paper 5 An output of research on climate change related migration in Bangladesh, conducted by Refugee and Migratory Movements Research Unit (RMMRU), University of Dhaka, and Sussex Centre for Migration Research (SCMR), University of Sussex, with support from Climate & Development Knowledge Network (CDKN) Copyright: RMMRU and SCMR, 2013 Refugee and Migratory Movements Research Unit Sattar Bhaban (4th Floor) 3/3-E, Bijoynagar, Dhaka-1000, Bangladesh. Tel: +880-2-9360338, Fax: +880-2-8362441 E-mail: [email protected], Web: www.rmmru.org | www.samren.net Sussex Centre for Migration Research School of Global Studies University of Sussex Falmer, Brighton BN1 9SJ, UK Tel: +44 1273 873394, Fax : +44 1273 620662 Email: [email protected], Web: www.sussex.ac.uk/migration About the authors: Dominic Kniveton is Professor of Climate Science and Society at the Department of Geography, School of Global Studies, University of Sussex, UK, Email: [email protected] Maxmillan Martin is a PhD student at the Department of Geography, School of Global Studies, University of Sussex, UK Pedram Rowhani is Lecturer in Geography at the Department of Geography, School of Global Studies, University of Sussex, UK Sensitivity testing current migration patterns to climate change and variability in Bangladesh Introduction It is widely recognised that the decision to migrate is multi-causal and context specific. According to the Foresight conception of migration and environmental change migration can be seen as being driven or de- termined by the multi-scale influences of social, economic, demographic, environmental and political fac- tors such as kinship links, job opportunities, population growth, loss of land and conflict, to give just a few examples; while the ability to migrate is controlled by household and individual access to resources, family obligations and migration networks (Foresight 2012). The literature on climate change is abundant with quantifications of the known uncertainties in estimating the future climate with, for example, changes in rainfall by different climate models not only varying in extent but the sign of change even for the same greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Within this environment of uncertainty, multi-causality and context specificity it was suggested by Black et al (2011) that future changes in migration in the context of climate change should be assessed by first identifying the major migration flows in a region; then identify the driv- ers of these flows and the intervening factors affecting migration before assessing the sensitivity of these drivers to changes in climate. This decision to focus on existing migration flows follows the recognition by a number of migration scholars of the importance of migration networks in facilitating and allowing migra- tion (e.g. Massey et al 1998). This is not to say that new migration flows will not emerge in the future but to emphasise that the impact of climate change on migration is best viewed as being mediated through the wider structural, institutional and agency forces controlling household and individual behavior. In the fol- lowing document we highlight the current major flows in Bangladesh before highlighting the drivers of the- se flows before exploring how sensitive these drivers are to the projected changes in the climate. Migration trends Bangladesh has a long history of migration with the largest flow of migration being within the country, es- pecially from rural to urban areas, Other flows include cross-border migration to India, finding work in oth- er parts of Asia such as the Gulf region or Malaysia or moving to European countries or the US. Such movements usually follow established migration routes and get the help of social networks for resources and facilitation. While migration can be permanent, on the whole it is temporary in nature with migrants working in different locations for short or long periods before returning, and during the process of migra- tion trying to earn more, save enough, send home some money and bring back some more. Whether per- manent or temporary many migrants keep their links with their original places intact. On a scale of volun- tary to forced, migrations tend to be more of a voluntary nature. However, in areas affected by environ- mental/ climatic shocks – such as floods, riverbank erosion and cyclones – or chronic stresses – such as sali- nisation, sometimes after a cyclonic storm surge – movement becomes more of an imperative if not inevi- tability as a coping strategy to escape increased environmental stress and limited economic opportunity. Broadly four main types of migration have been mentioned in the literature. They are internal displace- ment in the aftermath of disasters including floods, cyclones and such sudden environmental shocks; inter- nal migration to villages, towns and cities for short or long periods in search of job; cross-border migration to India; and international migration to the Gulf countries, Malaysia, European countries and elsewhere. While there are different overlapping flows of migration (See table 1), several of them are interconnected. For example, people may migrate to a town for work and move on from there to a foreign country. Some- times those affected by disasters join their kith and kin living in the city or across the border in India. There is also evidence to show that remittances boost the local economy in places of international migrants’ origin, attracting internal migrants from elsewhere in the country. Internal displacement: The short term and short distance movement of populations is often an immediate response by people ex- posed to disasters (IOM, 2009). Disasters associated with climate extremes influence population mobility and relocation, affecting host and origin communities (IPCC, 2012).Over 50 million people are affected by disaster events every five years on an average in Bangladesh. While the coasts are exposed to a severe cy- clone roughly every three years, about a quarter of the country is inundated annually during the monsoon rains (Alam and Murray 2005, ActionAid 2012). Internal displacement is often triggered by major disasters like the 1998 flood that inundated 61 % of the country and made an estimated 45 million people homeless (Alam et al. 2011). From 1970 to 2009, Bangladesh witnessed 26 major cyclones. For example Cyclone Sidr in 2007 displaced 650,000 people and killed 3,447. In 2009, two cyclones hit Bangaldesh - Bijli and Aila. About 200,000 people were displaced by Cyclone Bijli (Akter 2011). Many of the people most affected by cyclones are villagers whose farming and fishing livelihoods are vulnerable to destruction and have limited capacity to recover from livelihood shocks (World Bank 2012). The flood of 1998 caused damages and losses of over $2 billion worth approximately 4.8 percent of GDP in agriculture, infrastructure, and industry/commerce sectors (World Bank 2010). Cyclone Sidr in 2007 caused damages and losses of $1.7 billion, or 2.6 percent of GDP. About half the losses were in the housing sector, followed by farms and infrastructure (ActionAid 2012). Riverbank erosion and moving on to the newly formed chars (riverine islands) is another form of movement that could be termed displacement. One ex- ample of such movement is migration from Kazipur in Sirajganj (Haque 1997, Hutton and Haque 2004). Due to changes in river flow, sedimentation and flood patterns riverbanks can shift several metres and some- time kilometres at a time as our field research in Chapai Nawabganj and Munshiganj shows (Martin et al , forthcoming). A number of studies have shown that internal displacement in Bangladesh is a widespread phenomenon (. (Zaman 1987, 1989; Hutton and Haque 2004; Alam, 1994; Chhabara2008). People who lose their homes in disasters often move on to slums in cities like Rajshahi, Khulna, Chittagong and Dhaka (IOM 2009). Such movement need not necessarily happen soon after the disaster. Environmental shocks and stresses disrupt or limit opportunities for livelihoods and cities offer better opportunities for income generation. It be- comes more of economic migration as discussed in the following section. Internal migration: In the case of Bangladesh, village-to-city is the most prevalent mode of migration, making up two-thirds of total migration, followed by overseas migration that forms a little less than a quarter (24%) and village-to- village a tenth (Afsar 2003). More than 80% of incomes in some villages come from outside the village, with families spending part of the year away (Toufique, 2002). A 1600-household survey in northwest of Bangla- desh found that 19% of households of different income levels migrated in the lean farming season (CARE- Bangladesh and DFID, 2002). This marks the trend that for a quarter of the chronically poor households, seasonal migration is an important livelihood strategy. After cyclonic storm surges that leave lands saline, people migrate during the winter to towns when there is no farm activity in nearby villages as our studies show (Martin et al, forthcoming). A net effect of rural to urban migration is that cities of Bangladesh are booming. Government figures show that internal migration to urban areas as such is showing a sharp increase (Planning Commission, 2010b). Dhaka’s slums, for instance, are home to 3.4 million people with about 400,000 migrants arriving each year (World Bank, 2009). During the 1990s the urban growth in South Asia was estimated at 3.4%, which is over four times the rate of cities in developed countries (World Bank 1997, Ruback 2004). An estimated half a million people migrate to cities every year (Islam, 2012), for better and more diverse incomes. Most of them come from coastal areas and villages. Historically a decline in the farming income of village house- holds from 59 to 44 per cent between 1987-1988 and 1999-2000 has contributed to this movement.
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