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Impact of Railway Investment on Regional Development – Case Study of Pomeranian Metropolitan Railway

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Impact of Railway Investment on Regional Development – Case Study of Pomeranian Metropolitan Railway Mankowski C, Weiland D, Abramović B. Impact of Railway Investment on Regional Development – Case Study of Pomeranian... CEZARY MAŃKOWSKI, Ph.D.1 Transportation Economy E-mail: [email protected] Preliminary Communication DARIUSZ WEILAND, M.Sc.1 Submitted: 10 Apr. 2019 E-mail: [email protected] Accepted: 2 Oct. 2019 BORNA ABRAMOVIĆ, Ph.D.2 (Corresponding author) E-mail: [email protected] 1 University of Gdańsk, Faculty of Economics A. Krajowej 119/121, 81-824 Sopot, Poland 2 University of Zagreb, Faculty of Transport and Traffic Sciences Vukelićeva 4, 10000 Zagreb, Croatia IMPACT OF RAILWAY INVESTMENT ON REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT – CASE STUDY OF POMERANIAN METROPOLITAN RAILWAY ABSTRACT in the region, and sometimes initiated a discussion on From the regional development point of view new invest- the role of PMR in the region; however, no scientific ments are always of great importance as they are mainly analyses on the impact of this investment were done. expected to boost the regional economy and thus improve Therefore, the purpose of this paper is to assess the the living standard of inhabitants. Also for the literature pur- PMR impact on the Pomeranian region and to present poses a new case study on the impact of investments on the analysis results. In this research the impact is mea- regional development can be perceived as an added value sured in four aspects: social, economic, innovation, to the state of the art and thus worthy to be explored. In this and environmental. These aspects are also used as research the impact is measured in the following aspects: the main criteria, whose more detailed sub-criteria in social, economic, innovation, and environmental, which the form of text (qualitative) or numeric (quantitative) stand also for the main assessment criteria. Just recently, variables are included in Section 5. Since the main re- an opportunity has appeared to explore this subject on the Pomeranian Metropolitan Railway (PMR), which started its search method is a case study, which is focused on operations on 1st September 2015, after five years of con- the identification and assessment of impact relations, struction works and more than a 100-year long history. Thus, a general hypothesis in a falsifiable form is formulated the paper presents the impact results of PMR on the de- as: PMR investment has got a negative impact on the velopment of the Pomeranian region, in the form of qualita- Pomeranian regional development. To verify this the- tive as well as quantitative assessments in the four aspects sis a modified falsification method is used, which is and on different levels of detail. The final conclusion states adjusted by the authors to the selected case. A broad- that the impact of PMR on the regional development has er explanation of the research methods is included in appeared to be negative in 33% and positive in 67%. Section 3. The obtained results are presented in the next sections, which are supported by conclusion, KEY WORDS which also includes limitations and further research railway; region; investment; assessment; propositions. 1. INTRODUCTION 2. LITERATURE REVIEW The Pomeranian region is located in the northern The problem of impact assessment of transporta- part of Poland, inhabited by 2.3 million people living tion or logistics investments is not a new one. There on 18,310 km² of area, relatively well developed, with is a lot of literature, reports and projects, including its main city, Gdańsk, famous for its Solidarity move- feasibility studies, which are focused on that problem ment. Similar to other regions, its further develop- [1-3]. Significantly less, but still notable attention in lit- ment depends on many factors, both of internal as erature is devoted to measuring the investment influ- well as external origin. The analysed case of the PMR ence on the regional development. In this context, it is investment is an example of an internal factor whose worth mentioning the work of Blum [4], who presented influence on the Pomeranian region is the object of the theoretical and empirical results of the investiga- research. Till now, there have been only popular pub- tion on the effects of transportation investment on the lications, which promoted the new railway investment regional growth. Another example is a more detailed Promet – Traffic & Transportation, Vol. 31, 2019, No. 6, 669-679 669 Mankowski C, Weiland D, Abramović B. Impact of Railway Investment on Regional Development – Case Study of Pomeranian... study by Domańska [5], who analysed the influence of found and presented to confirm the hypothesis, do not road transport infrastructure on the regional develop- prove there is not one evidence against it. So, instead ment. These contributions in literature are supported of looking for many evidences, which confirm the the- by some institutional publications, above all the OECD sis, it is more logical to find the only one proof to falsify report [6], as well as the guidance for governments the hypothesis in favour of the alternative one [14]. and transport administrations on how to find empirical However, finding a proof against the falsifiable hypoth- evidences on wider impacts of transport infrastructure esis does not mean that the alternative (positive) one investment on regional development. Other examples is true, especially if the social sciences’ methods are are institutional reports and projects on: the role of used and the research object is a complex business transport infrastructure in regional economic develop- case. Thus, the authors propose a modified falsifica- ment [7]; transport investments and policies on spatial tion method in the form of constructing two hypothe- economics [8]; planning, monitoring and evaluation of ses: a negative, and a positive one. regional logistics strategy [9], etc. Additionally, a lot of The first one states that the PMR impact on the re- case studies on the abovementioned problem can also gional development is negative, while the second one be listed; for instance in relation to the development of speaks about the positive impact; additionally these regions in China [10], Lithuania [11] Slovakia [12], etc. two hypotheses do not exclude each other, but exist Berchmann [36] in his book pointed out that in formal simultaneously. Of course, a method of measuring the transportation project evaluation procedure very often importance, truth or falsehood, probability, weight, etc. vital information, such as accurate costs and demand of these hypotheses is required. Taking into account projections, is largely missing. The author constructed the complexity of the analysed case, the authors’ a comprehensive and methodical economic, planning scope of research competency and the limitations and decision-making framework for the evaluation of of the paper format, the so-called point-percentage proposed transportation infrastructure investment method of weighting each of these two hypotheses are projects. The assessment of investment in traffic-tech- proposed as follows. Based on the subjective authors’ nological projects means a set of activities, whose ba- expert assessment of the PMR impact on the regional sic aim is to determine the justification and feasibility development in the selected aspects, 100 points are of the projects. The decision-making process, including divided between negative and positive hypotheses, the decision making on investments is an extremely respectively, for each selected aspect of assessment, complex one, and the decision-maker has to have a vi- then the points are summed for all the aspects for sion of the future and decide/choose accordingly in a positive and negative hypotheses separately, and their modern and flexible manner. Therefore, the decisions share in percentage is calculated. Next, this percent- need to be the result of a planning and research pro- age is to be used to state in what percentage the PMR cess based on different methods [37]. The transporta- impact on the region has appeared to be negative and tion infrastructure projects often involve considerable positive, respectively. land use, long-term investments, and huge resources. The above-described point-percentage method The results from the literature show that sustainabili- requires other methods to evaluate the PMR impact ty factors and performance can be categorized under on the regional development. Usually, the cost-benefit environment, economic, social, engineering/resource analysis is proposed as the main method to assess an utilization and project management [38]. For investi- investment impact. It includes a set of particular meth- gating different transportation infrastructure projects, ods of calculating the effectiveness of investments in it is always good practice to use relatively simple and terms of input and output, as for instance methods of transparent evaluation methods. The evaluation meth- measuring: regional income, costs, net present value, ods usually contain the following important issues: market growth and share, break-even point, payback sustainable development, evaluation criteria, and en- period, internal return rate, return on investment, etc. vironmental criteria [39]. However, the question of how [1, 15]. Consequently, it also means that a lot of vari- to measure the impact of transportation investments ants of the cost-benefit analysis are projected and ap- on the level of regional development, what methods plied, as for instance: UNIDO method [16], value-added and tools to take, has been raised by all the authors of method [1], or cost-effectiveness analysis [15]. Based the mentioned publications. on the criticism of cost-benefit methods, especially the strong focus on financial criteria and weak focus on 3. RESEARCH METHODOLOGY other evaluation factors, a multi-criteria analysis (MCA) is proposed in literature [1]. This method combines the Because the research hypothesis: PMR investment cost-benefit analysis with others, not so much finan- has got a negative impact on the Pomeranian regional cially-oriented methods, like methods of measuring: development, is stated in the falsifiable form, the gen- fitting social needs, standards of living, wealth, pover- eral verification method is Popper’s falsification [13].
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