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University of the Aegean Shipping, Trade and Transport Department University of the Aegean Shipping, Trade and Transport Department Georgia Tsitsou “High-speed rail and air transport competition: The case of Athens – Thessaloniki” 16/10/2019 Research Dissertation for the Master Program “Shipping, Trade and Transport Department – ΝΑΜΕ” Author: Georgia Tsitsou Supervisor: Seraphim Kapros Chios 1 Abstract This research dissertation analyses the potential of the high speed train to compete with the airline market. The context proposed is hypothetical, given that the high speed train alternative is not yet available on the route subject to research. In order to model passenger preferences relative to the characteristics of the alternatives, experimental design techniques are applied, which allow for the design of the market that will be evaluated by current airline passengers. Based upon the information collected, modal choices are analysed, estimating a logit model with both alternatives. Demand modelling allows us to predict the substitutability level of the high speed train in comparison with the plane for the city pair Athens – Thessaloniki and in reverse, for different types of traveler. The results obtained confirm that the high speed train will have an important impact on the airline market. The simulation of different policies related to service variables stresses the fact that this impact will mainly depend on the relation gender – price, age – time, occupancy – accuracy/ reliability and reasons for travelling – accuracy/ reliability. In contrast, in the city pair Thessaloniki – Athens, there is statistically significant correlation between gender and fewer stops or better connections and reason for travelling and price. Suggestions that were provided at the final part of the dissertation concentrate on gaining a better overview of passengers’ preference for each mode of transport and needs by conducting a respective research in train platforms. The list of recommendations covers all aspects that caused passengers’ dissatisfaction on facility services. Keywords: High speed rail, Airplane, Passenger preference 2 CONTENTS Chapter 1 INTRODUCTION .................................................................................................... 6 1.1 Goal of this dissertation ................................................................................................... 6 1.2 Structure of this Paper ..................................................................................................... 6 1.3 Methodology ................................................................................................................... 6 Chapter 2 CURRENT SITUATION OF COMPETITION FOR TRANSPORT MODES IN GREECE ................................................................................................................................... 8 2.1 Air transport background ................................................................................................. 8 2.1.1 Air transport in Greece ........................................................................................... 10 2.2 High speed rail background ........................................................................................... 12 2.2.1 High speed rail in Greece ....................................................................................... 13 Chapter 3 LITERATURE REVIEW ....................................................................................... 15 3.1 Modal Competition ........................................................................................................ 15 3.2 Modelling approach and data sources ........................................................................... 18 3.2.1 The usefulness of a questionnaire survey ............................................................... 18 3.2.2 Questionnaire survey design ................................................................................... 19 3.2.3 Sample selection and description ........................................................................... 20 3.3 Definition of Customer’s satisfaction ............................................................................ 21 3.4 Key elements that affect customers’ satisfaction .......................................................... 22 Chapter 4 FIELD RESEARCH AND ELABORATION OF RESULTS ................................ 23 4.1 Ethics ............................................................................................................................. 23 4.2 Results analysis ............................................................................................................. 24 4.2.1 City pair Athens - Thessaloniki .............................................................................. 24 4.2.2 City pair Thessaloniki - Athens .............................................................................. 30 5.2.3 Descriptive Statistics (Questions team C) .............................................................. 36 Chapter 5 SUMMARY ............................................................................................................ 46 Chapter 6 SUGGESTIONS FOR IMPROVEMENT .............................................................. 50 Chapter 7 CONCLUSION ....................................................................................................... 50 Chapter 8 BIBLIOGRAPHY ................................................................................................... 52 8.1 Foreign Bibliography ..................................................................................................... 52 8.2 Greek Bibliography ....................................................................................................... 55 8.3 Web Bibliography ......................................................................................................... 55 Appendix ................................................................................................................................. 56 3 Table of Figures Figure 1: The various airport domains in the passengers experience (Wiredja, Popovic & Blackler, 2015) ........................................................................................................................ 16 Figure 2: Reduction of air traffic volume after reduction of HSR on a selection of routes (Railway Handbook, 2007) ..................................................................................................... 17 Figure 3: One of the scenarios presented to the respondents (Petrik et.al, 2006) .................... 18 Figure 4: Customer satisfaction conceptual model in the air travel industry (Clemes, 2008) . 22 Figure 5: Formation of Low Cost airlines (Kokotas, 2017). ..................................................... 9 Figure 6: Milestones of Trainose (Kathimerini newspaper, 2018) .......................................... 14 Table of tables Table 1: Characteristics of Questionnaire (Revealed preference variables) ............................ 20 Table 2: Differences between low cost and conventional airlines (Theodosiou, 2017). ......... 10 Table 3: Frequency distribution of participants regarding their first thought when buying a ticket (ATH-SKG) ................................................................................................................... 28 Table 4: Frequency distribution of participants’ reasons that they prefer to travel by plane instead of high-speed rail (ATH-SKG) ................................................................................... 28 Table 5: Frequency distribution of participants’ reasons that they prefer to travel by high-speed rail instead of plane (ATH-SKG) ............................................................................................ 28 Table 6: Frequency distribution of participants regarding their first thought when buying a ticket (SKG-ATH) ................................................................................................................... 35 Table 7: Frequency distribution of participants’ reasons that they prefer to travel by plane instead of high-speed rail (SKG-ATH) ................................................................................... 35 Table 8: Frequency distribution of participants’ reasons that they prefer to travel by high-speed rail instead of plane (SKG-ATH) ............................................................................................ 35 Table 9: Stated Preference Method designed for Questionnaire A ......................................... 36 Table 10: Stated Preference Method designed for Questionnaire B ........................................ 39 Table 11: Stated Preference Method designed for Questionnaire C ........................................ 41 Table 12: Stated Preference Method designed for Questionnaire D ....................................... 44 Table of graphs Graph 1: Number of participants regarding their gender (ATH-SKG) ................................... 24 Graph 2: Distribution of participants by age (ATH-SKG) ...................................................... 25 Graph 3: Distribution of participants by occupation (ATH-SKG) .......................................... 25 Graph 4: Number of participants regarding the reasons of travelling (ATH-SKG) ................ 26 Graph 5: Number of participants regarding the frequency of travelling (ATH-SKG) ............ 27 Graph 6: Number of participants regarding the frequency of travelling (ATH-SKG) ............ 27 Graph 7: Number of participants by gender (SKG-ATH) ......................................................
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