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AEGEAN AIRLINES Recommendation BUY Target Price €8.20 Stay on Board Prior Target Price €8.00

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AEGEAN AIRLINES Recommendation BUY Target Price €8.20 Stay on Board Prior Target Price €8.00 GREECE | EQUITY RESEARCH | AIRLINES March 27, 2017 COMPANY UPDATE AEGEAN AIRLINES Recommendation BUY Target Price €8.20 Stay on board Prior Target Price €8.00 Positive finish to a mixed year – Aegean reported a quite resilient Q4, managing to Closing Price (24/03) €6.87 sustain EBITDAR at the same level as in Q4’15 on the back of a substantial Market Cap (mn) €490.6 improvement in load factors (+5.9pps in Q4). The traffic increase in Q4 (+19%) exceeded the capacity expansion (+10%) and was only partly diluted by fare Expected Return 19.4% discounting (yields -12%) leading to a 5% increase in revenues. Overall, FY16 was a Expected Dividend 6.9% year of swings, and although the c€26m drop in Aegean’s EBITDAR in H1 was not fully Expected Total Return 26.2% recovered in H2 (€15m higher yoy), the finish to the year was stronger than anticipated while the solid pre-booking pattern for summer 2017 instills us with AEGEAN Share Price confidence that FY17 will be a positive year. 9.50 Positive FY17 outlook: capacity discipline and demand resilience – The 2017 outlook 9.00 is looking more benign as Ryanair shifts its focus to other markets and Aegean 8.50 rationalizes capacity (-5%). Trends in the first two months have been positive with demand growth (traffic in Greek airports +7% yoy) outstripping supply (flights -1%). 8.00 With pre-booking patterns for the summer program providing additional confidence 7.50 in Q2 trading, we believe load factors will be strong in FY17, while the pricing 7.00 required to stimulate demand will be less pronounced (yields -3%) than in 2016 (yields -8%). On the cost side, we do see some room for a reduction in distribution 6.50 costs as Aegean shifts away from the GDS platforms. We thus incorporate further – 6.00 albeit of small magnitude – cost efficiencies in FY17e (CASK ex-fuel -1%). As far as fuel 5.50 is concerned, besides having hedged its FY17 needs (75% at c$490/mt), Aegean has Mar-16 Jul-16 Nov-16 Mar-17 also hedged a portion of its FY18 fuel needs (40% at c$520/mt), fact that increases visibility of 2018 numbers. Our future fuel forecasts are in sync with the forward curve. Overall, following minor changes to our forecasts, we expect Aegean to deliver Stock Data c2% growth in EBITDAR translating into net profit of €48m, €16m higher yoy. Reuters RIC AGNr.AT Compelling dividend story – Given our forecast for EBITDA of c€84m-97m in the next Bloomberg Code AEGN GA 3 years (vs. €119m at the peak of 2014) and relatively limited capex, we forecast cumulative FCF >€180m, namely >35% of the current market cap. Taking into account 52 Week High (adj.) €9.06 mgt’s past guidance for a dividend payout ratio of 60-70%, we anticipate DPS of 52 Week Low (adj.) €5.84 another €1.5 cumulatively in the next 3 years. This chimes in well with the consistency that Aegean has shown in rewarding shareholders (€2.8 distributed in the Abs. performance (1m) 3.8% last 4 years) and renders Aegean one of the highest-yielding stocks in our universe. Abs. performance (YTD) 8.5% Valuation – Although the shares have bounced back from the recent lows following Number of shares 71.4mn the short-term disappointment from the Q2 results, we still believe the valuation is Avg Trading Volume (qrt) 0.5k quite compelling as Aegean trades at substantial EV/EBITDAR discount to EMEA Est. 3yr EPS CAGR 18.6% carriers. Our PT (blended valuation using DCF at 10.5% WACC and multiples) values Free Float 34% Aegean at <6x 2017e adj. EV/EBITDAR, namely still c25% discount to the current valuation of EMEA carriers (Turkish carriers and Air Arabia). Analyst Estimates Stamatios Draziotis, CFA EUR mn 2015a 2016a 2017e 2018e 2019e Research Analyst Revenues 983.0 1,020.3 1,016.9 1,008.4 1,025.4 Tel: +30 210 37 20 259 EBITDAR * 217.3 206.9 211.9 207.4 222.4 E-mail: [email protected] EBITDA adj. 111.2 76.8 87.7 83.8 96.7 Net profit - reported 68.4 32.2 48.1 46.3 55.7 Head of Research EPS - reported 0.96 0.45 0.67 0.65 0.78 Tel: +30 210 37 20 257 DPS 0.70 0.40 0.47 0.45 0.55 Sales Valuation Tel: +30 210 37 20 119/ 146 2015a 2016a 2017e 2018e 2019e P/E 8.0 14.7 10.2 10.6 8.8 Trading EV/EBITDAR adj.* 5.0 5.8 5.3 5.3 4.9 Tel: +30 210 37 20 140/ 146 Net Debt/EBITDAR adj.* 2.7 3.4 3.0 3.0 2.7 Dividend Yield 10.0% 5.8% 6.9% 6.6% 7.9% See Appendix for Analyst Certification and important disclosures ROE 28.6% 14.3% 18.9% 17.1% 19.3% *Operating leases capitalized at 7x annual lease payment. AEGEAN AIRLINES March 27, 2017 Table of Contents Investment case ...................................................................................................................................................................................3 Valuation ..............................................................................................................................................................................................4 Q4 and FY’16 review: Positive end to a year of swings ........................................................................................................................6 FY16: Demand vs. supply balance gradually improved since end Q2’16 .............................................................................................8 FY17 outlook: Capacity discipline to underpin load factors and yields ................................................................................................9 Costs – ongoing streamlining .............................................................................................................................................................12 Estimates update ...............................................................................................................................................................................14 Assumptions .......................................................................................................................................................................................15 Quarterly results summary ................................................................................................................................................................16 Risks and sensitivities .........................................................................................................................................................................17 Brief company description .................................................................................................................................................................18 Aegean in 4 charts and a table ...........................................................................................................................................................18 Group Financial Statements ...............................................................................................................................................................19 2 AEGEAN AIRLINES March 27, 2017 Investment case Turbulence in Q2’16 proved Notwithstanding the fact that capacity deployment in 2016 was less pronounced than in short-lived 2015, the balance between supply and demand in Q2 was negative as the latter was somewhat softer than initially envisaged. As a result, substantial fare discounting was required to stimulate demand, putting severe pressure on yields in Q2 (-13% for Aegean). Nonetheless, as we had argued in our detailed report in September 2016, trends showed signs of improvement in the summer assisted by improving inbound leisure traffic and capacity discipline (the number of flights increased by just 3.4% in H2’16). Although the c€26m drop in Aegean’s EBITDAR in H1 was not fully recovered in H2 (€15m higher yoy), the finish to the year was stronger than feared after the disappointing Q2 while the solid pre- booking pattern for summer 2017 instills us with confidence that FY17 will be a positive year. Capacity discipline in 2017 and For 2017, the competitive dynamics look relatively benign. Although supply is set to grow in relatively resilient demand are the mid single-digits, Aegean’s main competitor Ryanair has announced it plans to scale back omen for the bottoming of its capacity deployed in Greece (Summer 2017 -2%, Winter 2017 -22% in AIA). Aegean itself yields… has guided for a 5% reduction of its own capacity (in terms of seats) as a result of the reallocation of international seats from regional airports to AIA and fewer seats deployed in domestic routes. According to the Association of Greek Tourism Enterprises (SETE), the growth in demand is likely to outstrip the growth in supply thus leading to an improvement in load factors. In our view, the aforementioned discipline in capacity along with the improving inbound leisure trends are likely to help load factors retain their recent upward trajectory (+3pps in H2’16) on reasonable fare discounting, so long as there is no major disruption to demand. Overall, we incorporate yields -3% in 2017 following -8% in 2016, driving a 3.3pps increase in load factors leading to a stabilization of revenues. … underpinning a recovery of On the cost side, with unit costs at just €6c, Aegean’s cost base is almost as efficient as that of margins in FY17e low cost carriers (LCCs). Looking ahead, we do see some room for a reduction in distribution costs as Aegean shifts away from the GDS platforms utilizing alternative systems and/or increasing direct selling. We thus incorporate further – albeit of small magnitude – cost efficiencies in FY17e (CASK ex-fuel -1%), leading to EBITDAR of €212m, +2% yoy on 50bps higher margins. As
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