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Department of Geography, Environmental Management & Energy Studies THE ROLE OF CLIMATIC FACTORS IN DETERMINING TOURIST SATISFACTION: THE CASE OF FIVE INDIAN OCEAN ISLANDS Su-Marie Fortune Supervisors: Prof G. Hoogendoorn Dr J.M. Fitchett A dissertation submitted to the Faculty of Science, University of Johannesburg in fulfilment for the requirement of the degree Master of Arts in Geography November 2018 ABSTRACT Tourism is one of the largest economic sectors in the world and it plays an important role in the economic development of Small Island Developing States. The Indian Ocean Islands rely on tourism for economic development. The climate is important for the tourism in the Indian Ocean Islands since the tourism is mainly based on sun, sea and sand tourism which rely on warm sunny conditions. The aim of this study is to analyse the content of TripAdvisor reviews spanning the period 2012 to 2016 for five Indian Ocean Islands namely: Comoros, Reunion, Seychelles, Mauritius and Maldives to determine the relative importance of suitable climatic conditions for tourist satisfaction. 12% of the English TripAdvisor reviews contained climate mentions which confirms that climatic conditions are important for reviewers. The importance of the climatic conditions varied across the islands but rain was the climatic condition which was mentioned the most. The climatic sensitivity of the reviewers also varied based on their country of origin, choice of accommodation establishment and other personal factors such as whether they have children or not. The results also indicate that there are various factors that influence the reviewers’ satisfaction of the weather that they experienced, such as the facilities at the accommodation establishments, level of service and availability of alternative activities. The TripAdvisor reviews also gave insight into environmental concerns such as coral bleaching and beach erosion. ii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS A special thanks is due to my supervisors Professor Gijsbert Hoogendoorn and Doctor Jennifer Fitchett for their constant assistance, support, understanding and encouragement. I would like to thank Professor Hoogendoorn for all the consultations and his patience. I also would like to thank Doctor Fitchett for her assistance with the statistical aspects of the study. Secondly, I would like to thank the University of Johannesburg and Professor Hoogendoorn for the financial assistance provided. And lastly, but certainly not the least, I would like to thank my mother and husband for all their love and motivation throughout this study. iii TABLE OF CONTENT PAGE AFFIDAVIT i ABSTRACT ii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS iii LIST OF FIGURES x LIST OF TABLES xii LIST OF ACRONYMS xiii CHAPTER 1 : INTRODUCTION 1 1.1 CONTEXT 2 1.2 PROBLEM STATEMENT 5 1.3 RESEARCH AIM AND OBJECTIVES 5 1.3.1 Aim 5 1.3.2 Objectives 6 1.4 JUSTIFICATION OF RESEARCH 6 1.5 RESEARCH STRUCTURE 7 Chapter 1: Introduction 7 Chapter 2: Study area 7 Chapter 3: Literature review 8 Chapter 4: Method 8 Chapter 5: Results 8 Chapter 6: Discussion 9 Chapter 7: Conclusion 9 CHAPTER 2 : LITERATURE REVIEW 10 2.1 INTRODUCTION 11 2.2 WEATHER, CLIMATE AND TOURISM DEMAND 11 iv 2.2.1 Destination choice and global tourism flow 12 2.2.2 Climatic variables and climate indices for tourism demand 15 2.2.3 Tourist’s weather preferences, perceptions and experiences 17 2.2.4 Tourists’ satisfaction 19 2.2.5 Climate and weather information 21 2.3 CLIMATE CHANGE AND TOURISM 23 2.3.1 Impact of climate change on tourism 25 2.3.2 Adaption to climate change research 27 2.4 CLIMATE CHANGE AND TOURISM IN AFRICA 29 2.5 CLIMATE CHANGE AND TOURISM IN ISLANDS 31 2.6 CLIMATE CHANGE AND TOURISM IN THE INDIAN OCEAN ISLANDS 33 2.7 SOCIAL MEDIA AS A DATA COLLECTION METHOD 38 2.8 CONCLUSION 42 CHAPTER 3 : STUDY AREA 44 3.1 INTRODUCTION 45 3.2 GEOGRAPHY AND DEMOGRAPHY 45 3.2.1 Geography and Demography of Comoros 47 3.2.2 Geography and Demography of Reunion Island 47 3.2.3 Geography and Demography of Seychelles 48 3.2.4 Geography and Demography of Mauritius 48 3.2.5 Geography and Demography of Maldives 49 3.3 CLIMATE 49 3.3.1 Climate of Comoros 50 3.3.2 Climate of Reunion 51 3.3.3 Climate of Seychelles 52 3.3.4 Climate of Mauritius 53 3.3.5 Climate of Maldives 54 v 3.4 ECONOMY 55 3.4.1 Economy of Comoros 55 3.4.2 Economy of Reunion 56 3.4.3 Economy of Seychelles 56 3.4.4 Economy of Mauritius 57 3.4.5 Economy of Maldives 57 3.5 TOURISM 58 3.5.1 Tourism in Comoros 58 3.5.2 Tourism in Reunion 59 3.5.3 Tourism in Seychelles 60 3.5.4 Tourism in Mauritius 60 3.5.5 Tourism in Maldives 61 3.6 CONCLUSION 61 CHAPTER 4 : METHODS 63 4.1 INTRODUCTION 64 4.2 TRIPADVISOR AS A DATA COLLECTION SOURCE 64 4.3 DATA COLLECTION 66 4.4 DATA ANALYSIS 69 4.5 CONCLUSION 71 CHAPTER 5 : RESULTS 72 5.1 INTRODUCTION 73 5.2 ENGLISH REVIEWS 73 5.2.1 Sample Size and Demographics 73 5.2.2 Climatic mentions in reviews 77 5.2.2.1 Climate mentions per island 79 5.2.2.2 Climate mentions per country 81 5.2.2.3 Climate mentions for each accommodation type 82 vi 5.2.2.4 Climate mentions per year 83 5.2.2.5 Climate mentions per month 84 5.2.3 Satisfaction with weather conditions 85 5.2.3.1 Rain 85 5.2.3.2 Storm 88 5.2.3.3 Wind 91 5.2.3.4 Cloud 94 5.2.3.5 Clear sky 96 5.2.3.6 Sun 96 5.2.3.7 Hot and Humid 98 5.2.3.8 Cold and Cool 103 5.2.3.9 Temperature (comfortable temperature and uncomfortable temperature) 104 5.2.3.10 Good weather, bad weather and unpredictable weather 105 5.2.4 Other mentions indirectly relating to the climate 108 5.2.5 Other interesting mentions 109 5.3 TRANSLATED TRIPADVISOR REVIEWS 111 5.3.1 Sample Size and Demographics 111 5.3.2 Climate mentions in reviews 115 5.3.2.1 Climate mentions per island 117 5.3.2.2 Climate mentions per country 118 5.3.2.3 Climate mentions for each accommodation type 119 5.3.2.4 Climate mentions per year 120 5.3.2.5 Climate mentions per month 121 5.3.3 Satisfaction with climatic conditions 122 5.3.3.1 Rain 123 5.3.3.2 Storm 125 5.3.3.3 Wind 126 5.3.3.4 Cloud 127 5.3.3.5 Clear sky 128 5.3.3.6 Sun 129 5.3.3.7 Hot and Humid 130 5.3.3.8 Cold and Cool 132 vii 5.3.3.9 Temperature 132 5.3.3.10 Good weather, bad weather and unpredictable weather 133 5.3.4 Other mentions indirectly related to the climate for translated TripAdvisor reviews 137 5.4 CONCLUSION 138 CHAPTER 6 : DISCUSSION 139 6.1 INTRODUCTION 140 6.2 TRIPADVISOR REVIEWS 140 6.3 IMPORTANCE OF CLIMATIC FACTORS 141 6.4 SATISFACTION WITH CLIMATIC FACTORS 148 6.4.1 The influence of weather on tourists participation in activities 148 6.4.2 Ability to adapt to unfavourable weather conditions 150 6.4.3 Timing, duration and location of weather conditions 151 6.5 Reviewers’ perceptions of environmental problems 154 6.6 Global knowledge on tourism and climate change 155 6.7 The outlook for the regions’ tourism under climate change 156 6.7.1 Changes in temperatures 157 6.7.2 Changes in precipitation 158 6.7.3 Higher sea surface temperatures 159 6.7.4 Sea level rise 160 6.8 Limitations of the study 160 6.6 CONCLUSION 162 CHAPTER 7 : CONCLUSION 163 7.1 INTRODUCTION 164 viii 7.2 ACHIEVEMENT OF THE STUDY AIM AND OBJECTIVES 164 7.2.1 To explore the extent to which climate is an important factor by looking at the proportion of mentions of climate within TripAdvisor reviews for the SIDS. 164 7.2.2 To determine the significance of location, temporal factors, accommodation type and region of origin of the tourists in controlling the climatic sensitivity. 165 7.2.3 To relate the findings to the climatic conditions of the region, exploring factors such as seasonality 166 7.3 Summary of outcomes 166 REFERENCE LIST 169 ix LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1.1 Baie Beau Vallon, Seychelles 1 Figure 2.1 Grand Comore, Comoros 10 Figure 3.1 Piton de la Fournaise volcano, Reunion Island 44 Figure 3.2 Map of study area 45 Figure 3.3 The land area and population size of each island 46 Figure 3.4 Monthly temperature and rainfall for Comoros 51 Figure 3.5 Monthly temperature and rainfall for Reunion 52 Figure 3.6 Monthly temperature and rainfall for Seychelles 53 Figure 3.7 Monthly temperature and rainfall for Mauritius 54 Figure 3.8 Monthly temperature and rainfall for the Maldives 55 Figure 4.1 The Iron Hole, Reunion Island 63 Figure 5.1 Kurumba beach and Athiri bar, Maldives 72 Figure 5.2 Total number of English TripAdvisor reviews consulted for each accommodation type.