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Thesis Edzard Scherpbier 20180816 The energy transition in the Dutch chemical industry: Worth its salt? An analysis of decarbonization pathways in the salt and chlor-alkali industries in the Netherlands Edzard Scherpbier 1 ii The energy transition in the Dutch chemical industry: Worth its salt? An analysis of decarbonization pathways in the salt and chlor-alkali industries in the Netherlands July, 2018 by Edzard L.J. Scherpbier Master thesis submitted to Delft University of Technology in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science in Engineering and Policy Analysis to be defended in public on August 30, 2018 at 14:00 at Delft University of Technology – Faculty of Technology, Policy and Management Jaffalaan 5, 2624 BX, Delft, The Netherlands Student number: 4619560 Project duration: February 26, 2018 – August 30, 2018 Graduation committee: Chairperson: Prof. dr. ir. C. Andrea Ramirez Ramirez Energy and Industry Second Supervisor: Dr. ir. Jan H. Kwakkel Policy Analysis External Supervisor: Drs. Hans Eerens Planbureau voor de Leefomgeving iii iv Preface This research is conducted in light of graduation from the master program Engineering and Policy Analysis at the Delft University of Technology. The client, as well as the host of the research project was the Netherlands Environmental Agency (PBL). Together with the Energy Research Center of the Netherlands (ECN), this organization is developing a new knowledge network known as MIDDEN aimed at gaining practical knowledge about CO2-reducing technologies in specific industries. This research, set up in collaboration with industry stakeholders from AkzoNobel, focusses on the salt and chlor-alkali manufacturing industries and serves as a pilot project for MIDDEN. The research was conducted between March and August in the form of a full-time internship at PBL, as part of the department Climate, Air and Energy. The research structure can roughly be divided up into two discrete phases; the first involved the understanding of the manufacturing process and the identification of industry-specific alternate technologies that enable the reduction of CO2 emissions, while the second phase involved an analysis to determine robust strategies for decarbonization. As such, the phases involved in this research are clearly resonated in the name of my intended master degree – Engineering and Policy Analysis. In the first phase of research, while studying the complex and elaborate chemical processes involved in the salt-chlor-alkali chain, I felt that I almost had to become a chemical engineer to properly understand what is truly happening on a process level, and how different technologies can enable the reduction of CO2 emissions. In the second phase, I noted how from a policy perspective, the importance of specific chemical reactions that occur is obscured by the sheer vastness and complexity of possible futures, most of which are undesirable for all stakeholders involved. Writing a thesis for university whilst actively collaborating with multiple government agencies and industry stakeholders proved to be both challenging and rewarding to me personally. Although it required a lot of energy to constantly manage and fulfill the expectations of the involved parties (TU Delft, PBL, ECN and AkzoNobel), the extra insights gained by collaborating with so many different experienced individuals were truly worthwhile. Conducting this research has fueled my ambitions to continue working in the field of the future and sustainability of energy usage, and I am grateful that this opportunity has helped me to set out a vision for what I hope to do after graduating. This research could not have been conducted without the support of certain people around me. Firstly, I would like to thank my two university supervisors Andrea and Jan for their guidance and advice throughout this research. Their complimentary fields of expertise proved to be a perfect match for the way in which this research was set up. Furthermore, I would like to express my sincere gratitude to both of them for their support, understanding and flexibility in the final phase of my research. Secondly, I am indebted to my internship supervisor Hans Eerens, for helping me understand the complex chemical processes at play in the industries under study, and for granting me the opportunity to partake in MIDDEN as the very first intern. Lastly, I would like to thank four people in particular who helped and supported me throughout the whole research process. My parents and my sister Iza, for their encouragements and for reminding me to keep my head up at times when I was struggling; and my girlfriend Jet, for helping me keep focus without losing touch of the joys of life. Thank you all very much. By finalizing this thesis, I realize that I am also approaching the end of my life as a student. I experience this both as extremely gratifying as well as rather challenging. Although the road ahead is full of uncertainties, I feel privileged and strengthened by the deep friendships and unique experiences I was granted throughout these truly mesmerizing years as a student. Edzard Scherpbier Delft, August 2018 v vi Executive summary Background Globally, the climate is changing as a result of the emission of greenhouse gases caused by human activity. In 2015, the Netherlands, along with 195 countries pledged to contribute to attaining the long- term collective goal of keeping the increase in global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and aim for a maximum warming of 1.5°C. In order to achieve this goal, the carbon dioxide emissions should be reduced to approximately 50% by 2030 compared to their level in 1990, followed by a full 100% reduction by 2050. The Netherlands has pledged to reduce emissions by 49% in 2030, which translates to a national yearly emission reduction of 48.7 megatons, 30% of which must be realized by the Dutch industrial sector. The sheer size of the Dutch industrial sector, combined with the large variety of activities that take place within it, make it a particularly complex field for policymakers to analyze. There is a lack of clarity with regard to the technologies and climate policies that facilitate decarbonization in the industrial sector, as well as a lack in consideration of the effects of uncertainties on this energy transition as a whole. Research objective This research focusses on the Dutch salt and chlor-alkali manufacturing industries. The two closely intertwined industries are responsible for roughly 750 kilotons of yearly direct emissions, together with an estimated 1,750 kilotons of yearly indirect emissions. Together, they play a key role in the Dutch chemical chain as their products are used as raw materials across a large range of industries. The central research question is: What are robust strategies to decarbonize the Dutch salt and chlor-alkali manufacturing industries in light of a deeply uncertain energy transition, analyzed until 2030? In this research, the specific processes that are at play on multiple levels of aggregation in the salt- chlor-alkali production chain are studied, and emission reduction measures from an industry perspective are analyzed. Thus, this research aims to identify strategies that lower the emission levels of these industries, while characterizing their vulnerabilities and evaluating the tradeoffs among them. Recommendations on how to decarbonize the Dutch salt-chlor-alkali production chain are provided to policymakers and industry stakeholders. The obtained insights feed into a large study of the Dutch industrial sector for the research clients PBL and ECN. Methodology In this research, an inventory is made of the processes, products and plants involved in the salt and chlor-alkali manufacturing industries. Furthermore, an analysis is conducted of the industries and key driving forces are identified. The inventory is subsequently processed into a database, whereupon a model is conceptualized of each industry. The two models describe how the salt and chlor-alkali industries evolve over time under the driving forces. A series of computational experiments are conducted with these models to explore the way in which the identified uncertainties and decision opportunities influence the way in which the salt and chlor-alkali industries can be decarbonized. vii Conceptualization of the salt-chlor-alkali production chain The Dutch salt industry consists of four production plants in Delfzijl, Hengelo, Harlingen and Veendam, which together produce roughly 6,600 kilotons of salt yearly. The salt industry is especially intensive on its heat consumption; it requires approximately 1.6 PJ of heat energy along with 75 GWh (0.26 PJ) of electricity per megaton of salt produced. As such, the industry, the annual turnover of which is estimated at approximately 230 million euros, spends approximately 35% of its total costs on electricity and gas. The salt manufacturing process can be divided into a series of steps; steam generation, salt extraction, brine purification, brine vaporization, centrifugation and treatment. Across the industry, the steam generation process causes the direct emissions in the salt by the deployment of combined heat and power plants. Most of this steam is generated so that it can be used to vaporize the brine with multiple effect vaporizers. According to the experts consulted for this research, two technologies can enable the emission reduction of the salt manufacturing industry; the replacement of the multiple effect vaporizers by mechanic vapor recompression facilities which reduce the overall steam demand of the industry, as well as the implementation of electric boilers to replace the combined heat and power plants altogether. The Dutch chlor-alkali industry exists of three production plants located in Delfzijl, Botlek and Bergen- op-Zoom, and together produce roughly 850 kilotons of chlorine, 950 kilotons of caustic soda, as well as 24 kilotons of hydrogen per year. In contrast to the salt industry, the chlor-alkali industry more intensive on its electricity usage; per megaton of chlorine produced, over 3,000 GWh (11 PJ) of electricity are needed in combination with 1.9 PJ of heat energy.
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