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Commercial Space Transportation QUARTERLY LAUNCH REPORT Featuring the launch results from the 4th quarter 2000 and forecasts for the 1st and 2nd quarter 2001 Quarterly Report Topic: The Anatomy of a Launch Vehicle United States Department of Transportation • Federal Aviation Administration Associate Administrator for Commercial Space Transportation 800 Independence Ave. SW Room 331 Washington, D.C. 20591 FIRST QUARTER 2001 QUARTERLY LAUNCH REPORT 1 Introduction The First Quarter 2001 Quarterly Launch Report features launch results from the fourth quarter of 2000 (October-December 2000) and launch forecasts for the first quarter of 2001 (January-March 2001) and the second quarter of 2001 (April-June 2001). This report contains information on worldwide commercial, civil, and military orbital space launch events. Projected launches have been identified from open sources, including industry references, company manifests, periodicals, and government sources. Projected launches are subject to change. This report highlights commercial launch activities, classifying commercial launches as one or more of the following: • Internationally competed launch events (i.e., launch opportunities considered available in principle to competitors in the international launch services market) • Any launches licensed by the Office of the Associate Administrator for Commercial Space Transportation of the Federal Aviation Administration under U.S. Code Title 49, Section 701, Subsection 9 (previously known as the Commercial Space Launch Act) Contents Highlights from Fourth Quarter 2000 2 Fourth Quarter 2000 Launch Events Summary 3 First Quarter 2001 Projected Launch Events Summary 4 Second Quarter 2001 Projected Launch Events Summary 5 Historical Commercial Launch Trends 6 Quarterly Report Topic: The Anatomy of a Launch Vehicle QRT-1 Appendix A: Fourth Quarter Launch Events A-1 Appendix B: First Quarter Projected Launch Events B-1 Appendix C: Second Quarter Projected Launch Events C-1 Cover: Pacific Ocean, October 21, 2000 - A Sea Launch Zenit 3SL lifts off from the Odyssey launch platform carrying the Boeing-built Thuraya 1 satellite, which it successfully placed into geosynchronous transfer orbit. Courtesy of Sea Launch. FIRST QUARTER 2001 QUARTERLY LAUNCH REPORT 2 Highlights from Fourth Quarter 2000 Russian Launch Quotas Expire During the fourth quarter of 2000, the U.S. government allowed quotas limiting Russian commercial launches of Western satellites to expire. During the 1993 – 2000 period such launches were limited by the U.S.-Russian Launch Trade Agreement. This agreement was designed to guide the entry of formerly non- market companies into the Western launch market. In 1993 the quota allowed for the launch of nine Western geosynchronous satellites; the quota increased to 16 in 1996 and to 20 in 1999. Russian launch providers will now be able to perform as many launches as they are able to sell. Chinese Satellite Export Licensing Resumes Another significant event in the fourth quarter of 2000 was the decision by the U.S. State Department to resume processing export licenses for U.S. satellites to be launched on Chinese rockets. Up to 20 such launches are allowed through 2001 under an agreement between the U.S. and Chinese governments. The processing of such export licenses had been halted pending the resolution of technology transfer issues that had concerned the U.S. government. FIRST QUARTER 2001 QUARTERLY LAUNCH REPORT 3 Fourth Quarter 2000 Launch Events Summary (October – December 2000) Figure 1: Total Launch Figure 2: Total Launch Figure 3: Commercial Vehicle Use Events by Country Launch Events by Country UNITED STATES Atlas 1 & USA 2 Russia 2 8% (1) 40% (10) Delta 2 2 USA 28% (7) Pegasus 1 Russia 46% (6) Shuttle 2 Europe 38% (5) China CHINA 8% (2) Long 2 March Multinational EUROPE 4% (1) Europe Multinational 20% (5) 8% (1) Ariane 4 3 Total = 25 Total = 13 Ariane 5 2 MULTINATIONAL Figure 4: Total Payload Use Figure 5: Total Launch Zenit 3SL 1 Summary Successes vs. Failures Science RUSSIA 8% (3) Failed Launches Cosmos 1 Remote Sensing Communications 8% (2) Successful Launches 5% (2) 45% (18) 92% (23) Cyclone 1 Navigation 15% (6) Proton 4 Mir Soyuz 3 2% (1) 1 START ISS 10% (4) Classified R & D 0123456 2% (1) 13% (5) Total = 25 Total = 40 Total = 25 Figure 1 shows the total number of launches (commercial and government) of each launch vehicle in the fourth quarter of 2000. The launches are grouped by the country in which the primary vehicle manufacturer is based. Exceptions to this grouping are launches performed by Sea Launch, which are designated as multinational. Figure 2 shows all orbital launch events that occurred in the fourth quarter of 2000 by country. Figure 3 shows all commercial orbital launch events that occurred in the fourth quarter of 2000 by country. The definition of "commercial" can be found on Page 1. Figure 4 shows the payloads launched into orbit in the fourth quarter of 2000 by the mission of the payload. The total number of payloads launched does not equal the total number of launches due to multi-manifesting, i.e., the launching of more than one payload by a single launch vehicle. Figure 5 shows launch outcome for all orbital launch events that occurred in the fourth quarter of 2000. FIRST QUARTER 2001 QUARTERLY LAUNCH REPORT 4 First Quarter 2001 Projected Launch Events Summary (January – March 2001) Figure 6: Total Projected Figure 7: Total Projected Figure 8: Projected Launch Vehicle Launch Events by Commercial Use Country Launch Events by UNITED STATES Country Atlas 1 & 2 2 USA 41% (11) USA Russia 22% (2) Delta 2 3 22% (2) Russia 26% (7) Delta 3 1 Pegasus 1 Shuttle 2 Multinational Titan 2 1 4% (1) Multinational 12% (1) Titan 4 1 India 7% (2) CHINA Europe Europe China 44% (4) 7% (2) Long March 2 15% (4) EUROPE Total = 27 Total = 9 Ariane 4 2 Ariane 5 2 Figure 9: Total Projected Figure 10: Total Projected MULTNATIONAL Payload Use Payload Mass Zenit 3SL 1 Summary Class Summary INDIA Unknown PSLV 1 Heavy Test 6% (2) 3% (1) Scientific Communications 9% (3) Small GSLV 1 9% (3) 43% (14) 12% (4) Intermediate Remote 24% (8) RUSSIA Sensing 1 6% (2) Proton Micro Navigation 12% (4) Proton M 1 6% (2) Soyuz 3 Mir Supply 3% (1) START 1 Meteorology Zenit 1 Large 9% (3) Medium 9% (3) ISS R&D 31% (10) 12% (4) Classified 3% (1) 012345 3% (1) Total = 27 Total = 33 Total = 33 Figure 6 shows the total number of projected launches (commercial and government) of each launch vehicle in the first quarter of 2001. Figure 7 shows all orbital launch events projected to occur in the first quarter of 2001 by country. Figure 8 shows all commercial orbital launch events projected to occur in the first quarter of 2001 by country. Figure 9 shows the payloads projected to launch into orbit in the first quarter of 2001 by the mission of the payload. The total number of payloads launched does not equal the total number of launches due to multi-manifesting, i.e., the launching of more than one payload by a single launch vehicle. Figure 10 shows payloads projected to launch in the second quarter of 2001 by mass class: Micro (0 to 200 lbs.), Small (201 to 2,000 lbs.), Medium (2,001 to 5,000 lbs.), Intermediate (5,001 lbs. to 10,000 lbs.), Large (10,001 lbs. to 20,000 lbs.), and Heavy (over 20,000 lbs.). FIRST QUARTER 2001 QUARTERLY LAUNCH REPORT 5 Second Quarter 2001 Projected Launch Events Summary (April – June 2001) Figure 11: Total Projected Figure 12: Total Projected Figure 13: Projected Launch Vehicle Launch Events by Commercial Use Country Launch Events UNITED STATES by Country Russia USA Delta 2 5 19% (4) USA Multinational 33% (2) 52% (11) 17% (1) Delta 3 1 Multinational 5% (1) Shuttle 3 Taurus 1 Europe 14% (3) Titan 2 1 Europe 33% (2) China China 17% (1) CHINA 10% (2) Long 2 March Total = 21 Total = 6 INDIA EUROPE Figure 14: Total Projected Figure 15: Total Projected Ariane 5 2 INDIA Payload Use Payload Mass Ariane 1 Summary Class Summary TBA JAPANISRAEL Unknown Communications Heavy Small 4% (1) Scientific 19% (5) 11% (3) MULTINATIONAL 35% (9) ISREALMULTINATIONAL 27% (7) JAPAN MULTINATIONALRUSSIA Intermediate Zenit 3SL 1 R&D 4% (1) 11% (3) RUSSIAMULTINATIONAL RUSSIARUSSIA RUSSIA Rockot 1 Remote RUSSIA Sensing Large 3 15% (4) 20% (5) Soyuz ISS 23% (6) Micro Navigation Meteorology 8% (2) Medium 4% (1) 8% (2) 11% (3) 0123456 Total = 21 Total = 26 Total = 26 Figure 11 shows the total number of projected launches (commercial and government) of each launch vehicle in the second quarter of 2001. Figure 12 shows all orbital launch events projected to occur in the second quarter of 2001 by country. Figure 13 shows all commercial orbital launch events projected to occur in the second quarter of 2001 by country. Figure 14 shows the payloads projected to launch into orbit in the second quarter of 2001 by the mission of the payload. The total number of payloads launched does not equal the total number of launches due to multi-manifesting, i.e., the launching of more than one payload by a single launch vehicle. Figure 15 shows payloads projected to launch in the second quarter of 2001 by mass class: Micro (0 to 200 lbs.), Small (201 to 2,000 lbs.), Medium (2,001 to 5,000 lbs.), Intermediate (5,001 lbs. to 10,000 lbs.), Large (10,001 lbs. to 20,000 lbs.), and Heavy (over 20,000 lbs.). FIRST QUARTER 2001 QUARTERLY LAUNCH REPORT 6 Historical Commercial Launch Trends Figure 16: Commercial Launch Events, Figure 17: Commercial Launch Revenue, Last 12 Months Last 12 Months USA USA 20% (7) Russia 14% ($370M) Russia 25% ($671M) 37% (13) Multinational 9% ($255M) Multinational Europe 9% (3) 34% (12) Europe 52% ($1433 M) Total = 35 Total = $2,729M Figure 18: Commercial Launches by Figure 19: Commercial Launch Revenue Country, Last Five Years by Country, Last Five Years USA USA China China 1996 1996 Europe Europe (ESA) Multinational Multinational Russia Ukraine Russia Ukraine 1997 1997 1998 1998 1999 1999 2000 2000 024681012141618202224 $0 $250 $500 $750 $1,000 $1,250 $1,500 $1,750 Number of Launches $ Million Figure 16 shows commercial launch events for the period January 2000 to December 2000 by country.
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