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Colliers International 2011 Serbia Real Estate Review COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL 2011 SERBIA REAL ESTATE REVIEW Albania Bulgaria Croatia Czech Republic Greece Hungary Poland Romania Russia Serbia Slovakia Ukraine Accelerating success. 2011 COLLiers REAL ESTATE REVIEW » COUNTRY Serbia Dear Friends and Partners, The last year has proven to be challenging for all of us. All of the real estate market segments suffered, each in their own manner. Although the messages we receive from banks, investors as well as the government are encouraging, 2011 will continue to be a year of caution but a slow and definite recovery. Maja Sahbaz As a result of all this change, the one thing we can say is that the market general manager is a lot more sophisticated than it was 2 – 3 years ago. Some difficult colliers international serbia lessons were learned, and among them the most important one would be Address 115D Mihajla Pupina Blvd. that the market has shifted towards tenants and buyers. 11070 New Belgrade, Serbia Phone +381 11 313 99 55 It will continue to take an innovative and sophisticated approach to Email [email protected] achieve successful and sustainable real estate solutions, tapping into local and global experience. We hope to continue to accelerate your success. Best regards, Maja Sahbaz P. 130 | COLLIErs INTERNATIONAL Research: [email protected] 2011 COLLiers REAL ESTATE REVIEW » SERBIA ECONOMIC OVERVIEW KEY ECONOMIC FIGURES SUMMARY PROGNOSIS Metric 2010E 2011F After a sharp decline in GDP in 2009 Serbia’s GDP growth should be more GDP Growth 1.5% 2.5% (-3.1%), Serbia began to show some robust in 2011 than in 2010, with Industrial Production -0.5% 5.0% positive signs economically, with three UniCredit bank forecasting GDP growth Unemployment 20.0% 19.5% consecutive positive growth quarters of 2.7% in 2011. Inflation 10.3% 7.5% (Q1: +.03%, Q2: +.08%, Q3: +1.6%, qoq Retail Sales -1.1% n/a seasonally adjusted). Consumer prices will continue to Public Deficit -4.8% -4.0% experience upward pressure, the target Source: NBS, Raiffesen Bank, Colliers Research Estimated GDP in 2010 was €29.7 of 4.5% (± 1.5%) set by the National Bank Bln, 1.5% above the previous year. Due will likely be difficult to achieve with to the significant drop in GDP in 2009, UniCredit Bank projecting an inflation this brings Serbia’s GDP just above its rate of 7.5%. 2007 figures. GDP, INDUSTRIAL OUTPUT & UNEMPLOYMENT 25% The Serbian Dinar (RSD) is expected 20% Production and export trends have to continue to depreciate during 2011, 15% 10% improved in 2010, with industrial with some analysts projecting the 5% production in the first 11 months of 2010 exchange rate against the Euro as high 0% -5% increasing 3.2% compared with the as 117 RDS. Source: NBS, Raiffeisen Bank -10% Colliers Research same period in 2009. -15% | | | | | | 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011F 2012F The “Serbian post-crisis economic ▬ GDP Growth ▬ Industrial Output ▬ Unemployment Unemployment figures remained growth and development model week in 2010, in October reaching 19.2%. 2011 – 2020” study should act as the basis for the government’s economic Consumer prices have grown beyond strategy. The document calls for more FDI (EUR BN.) 2.5 the National Bank’s target of 6.0% (±2%), focus on investment and imports as the Source: UniCredit Bank 2 increasing 10.3% yoy for the period historical reliance on privatizations and 1.5 January – December. foreign direct investment may be drying 1 up. 0.5 The Belgrade Stock Exchange has 0 | | | | | been plagued by poor performance and Telekom Srbija, Serbia’s fixed phone 2008 2009 2010 2011F 2012F extremely low turnover, the two main line operator is likely to be privatized in indices, Belex 15 and Belexline, fell 1.8% 2011, with major players in the and 2.2% in 2010 respectively. Total telecommunications industry interested turnover on the exchange was only in acquiring the state-run company. The €222 Mln. sale is expected to generate at least €1 Bln in revenues to the country, significantly boosting FDI in 2011 compared to 2010. Research: [email protected] COLLIErs INTERNATIONAL | p. 131 2011 COLLiers REAL ESTATE REVIEW » SERBIA OFFICE MARKET KEY OFFICE FIGURES SUPPLY In terms of deal size, the majority of Metric Measure Despite the construction slowdown demand (70% of requests) was for Total Stock (A and B) 658,419 Sqm GLA experienced by the Belgrade office premises up to 500 Sqm. The remaining Vacancy (A and B) 24.24% market during 2010, the total stock of 30% of requests were for larger Prime Headline Rent €16/Sqm/month Class A and B office space increased by footplates of 1,000 Sqm and above. Source: Colliers International 76,100 Sqm. By year-end it stood at 658,419 Sqm. VACANCY / AVAILABILITY The vacancy rate increased to Of this, Class A stock comprises 24,24% by end 2010, which equates to 414,503 Sqm GLA an increase of 22.5% 159,633 Sqm. Class A vacancy increased ADDITIONS TO OFFICE STOCK IN BELGRADE 70,000 compared to 2009. The total stock of compared to the previous year, driven in 60,000 Source: Colliers International Class B space remained the same as in large part by additions to stock, while 50,000 40,000 2009 – at 243,916 Sqm. Class B vacancy decreased. 30,000 20,000 New Class A buildings delivered to By type, there was 105,222 Sqm of 10,000 0 | | | | | the market in the second half 2010 vacant Class A – a vacancy rate of H2 2008 H1 2009 H2 2009 H1 2010 H2 2010 included the Dexy Co office building of 25.4%. Class B vacant space account for 9,056 Sqm, located in New Belgrade. 54,111 Sqm – a vacancy rate of 22.3%. Other significant additions to stock included two buildings (Belville Office RENTS Building 1 – 8,089 Sqm GLA and Belville Although rents for all types of office KEY LEASE TRANSACTIONS Office Building 2 – 15,302 Sqm GLA) space experienced a decrease, there Tenant Size (Sqm) Project Location which opened within the University was a greater fall in Class A rents, due to Findomestic New bank 2,500 Napred Block 26 Belgrade village on Jurija Gagarina Street, in New the higher level of new additions. Prime Belgrade. headline rents by year-end fell to €16 Medico Uno 1,000 Belgrade Pancevo Warehouse per Sqm. In general, headline rents for Cardiovasular New Hospital 1,250 Block 24 Belgrade DEMAND Class A space vary from €13 to €16 Numanovic 1,950 Garden Center Zemun Encouraged by somewhat lower Sqm/pcm. Class B rents remained Furniture rental levels, numerous companies steady at ca. €13.5 Sqm/pcm. started their search for new business premises in 2010. These tenants came In cases where the whole building is from a range of business sectors offered for rent, with sizes ranging from VACANT SPACE IN BELGRADE 180,000 including finance and insurance, 1,000 to 2,500 Sqm, prime headline 160,000 Source: Colliers International engineering, architecture and rents range from €10 to €12 Sqm/pcm. 140,000 construction; IT, media and publishing 120,000 and retaling. Among the companies PROGNOSIS 100,000 80,000 seeking space were Findomestic Bank, Over 50,000 Sqm of space is on 60,000 KBC Securities, Meridian Balkans, track to be delivered to the market in 40,000 SunGard, Reuters, Beneton, and others. 2011. This comprises of primarly Class A 20,000 stock, delivered by a few key 0 | | | | | | Q1 2008 Q2 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Local and foreign government developments. The buildings expected to ▬ Class A ▬ Class B ▬ Overall institutions and embassies were also have a big impact on the market are the active players in the market. The B23 office building by Verano, Australian Embassy took 800 Sqm in the comprising 35,000 Sqm including state “19th Avenue” office building in New of the art systems. Another interesting Belgrade, and the Flight Control Agency new project is Tri lista Duvana by MPC of Serbia took up 1,200 Sqm in the “M Holding (8,200 Sqm GLA) in one of the Invest” building also in New Belgrade. top business location in Belgrade’s CBD. This will create significant competition amongst developers/owners for grade A tenants, putting further downward pressure on class A rents. P. 132 | COLLIErs INTERNATIONAL Research: [email protected] 2011 COLLiers REAL ESTATE REVIEW » SERBIA RETAIL MARKET KEY RETAIL FIGURES GENERAL OVERVIEW Traditional shopping center stock only Metric Measure The Serbian retail market took further increased by 5,130 Sqm (3.3%) in 2010, Prime High Street Rents €110/Sqm/month steps toward reaching greater maturity reaching 155,530 Sqm. This was driven Prime SC Rents €60/Sqm/month in terms of its overall retail offering, by the opening of a new neighborhood SC Stock 155,530 Sqm converging more closely with shopping center in the latter half of 2010 Source: Colliers Research neighboring SEE countries Bulgaria and — Point Centar in Kaludjerica. The center Croatia. consists of approx. 5,000 Sqm GLA. Tenants include local brands sutch as Belgrade and Novi Sad remain at the Fitex, OFY Toys, Brankodex, Atrattivo, forefront of the country’s retail Diopta, and consumer electronic store SHOPPING CENTER STOCK IN BELGRADE 180,000 development as local and international — Technomarket. 160,000 Source: Colliers Research 140,000 retail chains have continued to expand. 120,000 More recently, however, retailers have Outlet center stock remained the 100,000 80,000 chosen to venture outside of these two same over the year, with no new 60,000 40,000 big markets into the secondary cities of deliveries expected until H2 2011 through 20,000 0 | | | | | | | Serbia.
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