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Does the Zimbabwe Stock Exchange (Zse) Have Potential to Support Economic Growth During the Multicurrency System?

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Does the Zimbabwe Stock Exchange (Zse) Have Potential to Support Economic Growth During the Multicurrency System? DOES THE ZIMBABWE STOCK EXCHANGE (ZSE) HAVE POTENTIAL POTENTIAL HAVE (ZSE) EXCHANGE STOCK ZIMBABWE THE DOES ZEPARUWorking (ZWPSPaper Series 01/11) Mpofu Sehliselo 100 150 200 250 300 350 50 0 Feb-09 Mar-09 TOSUPPORT ECONOMIC GROWTH DURING THE Apr-09 May-09 Jun-09 Jul-09 Aug-09 Sep-09 MULTICURRENCY SYSTEM? MULTICURRENCY Oct-09 Nov-09 Mining Index Mining Index Dec-09 ZSE and Mining Industrial Indices Jan-10 Feb-10 Mar-10 Apr-10 May-10 Jun-10 Jul-10 Aug-10 Sep-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Industrial Index Industrial Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 DOES THE ZIMBABWE STOCK EXCHANGE (ZSE) HAVE POTENTIAL TO SUPPORT ECONOMIC GROWTH DURING THE MULTICURRENCY SYSTEM? By Sehliselo Mpofu Zimbabwe Economic Policy Analysis and Research Unit (ZEPARU) 55 Mull Road, Belvedere, Harare, Zimbabwe Tel: +263-4-778423 Fax: +263-4-778415 Website: www.zeparu.co.zw E-mail: [email protected] ZEPARU Working Paper Series (ZWPS 01/11) Table of Contents Abstract ....................................................................................................................................................... v Acknowledgements ................................................................................................................................ vi List of Acronyms ....................................................................................................................................... vii List of Tables ............................................................................................................................................. viii List of Figures ............................................................................................................................................ viii 1. Introduction and Background ...................................................................................................... 1 1.1 Overview of the Economy ........................................................................................................ 1 1.2 Importance of the Zimbabwe Stock Exchange in the Multicurrency System ............ 7 2. Review of Literature ......................................................................................................................... 8 2.1 Theoretical Overview ................................................................................................................. 8 2.2 Empirical Literature ..................................................................................................................... 9 2.3 Overview of African Stock Markets ...................................................................................... 11 3. Methodology ................................................................................................................................... 12 3.1 Statement of the Research Issue .......................................................................................... 12 3.2 Objectives of the Study ........................................................................................................... 13 3.3 Importance of the Study ......................................................................................................... 13 3.4 Methodology of Analysis ......................................................................................................... 13 3.5 Data Issues .................................................................................................................................. 14 4 Presentation and Analysis of Preliminary Findings .................................................................. 14 4.1 Relative Position of the ZSE Among African Stock Exchanges .................................... 14 4.2 ZSE Trading System, Trading Days and Times ..................................................................... 23 4.3 ZSE Listing Rules for Local Participants ................................................................................. 23 4.4 ZSE Listing Rules for Foreign Participants .............................................................................. 23 4.5 ZSE Activity in the Multicurrency System ............................................................................. 26 4.6 Recent, Current and Planned Developments on the ZSE .............................................. 26 4.7 ZSE Institutional and Infrastructure Indicators .................................................................... 30 4.8 ZSE Market Performance Indicators ..................................................................................... 30 4.9 Challenges, Risks, Weaknesses and Threats Facing the ZSE ...................................... 39 4.10 Current Opportunities for the ZSE ................................................................................... 41 5. Policy Implications and Recommendations ............................................................................ 46 5.1 Policy Implications ..................................................................................................................... 46 iii 5.2 Policy Recommendations ....................................................................................................... 46 6. Conclusion ......................................................................................................................................... 49 7. Outstanding Further Analysis of the ZSE ...................................................................................... 50 8. Preliminary References ................................................................................................................... 51 ZEPARU Working Paper Series (ZWPS 01/11) Abstract In this paper we examine the potential of the Zimbabwe Stock Exchange (ZSE) to promote economic growth during the multicurrency regime in Zimbabwe. The study period is February 2009 to December 2011. The study period covers the multicurrency system. The data frequency is monthly. We do an external SWOT analysis of the ZSE by identifying the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats facing the ZSE. We identify any potential risks facing the ZSE. We examine the technological infrastructure and institutional indicators of the ZSE. These include existence of a capital market regulator, existence of a ZSE governing law, technological nature of the clearing and settlement systems, technological nature of the trading system, trade settlement cycle, existence of an international custodian, foreign participation, exchange control regulations, existence of a central securities depository (CSD), number of trading days, length of trading times, and the nature of the accounting and auditing reporting systems. We compare the trading costs to those attaining in the African region, as well as the ZSE regional integration initiatives. We use various stock market performance indicators. These include the number of listed companies, stock market indices, traded values and volumes, market capitalization and turnover. We the weigh ZSE actual performance against the annual targeted levels. We review the ZSE planned projects, programmes and strategies. We examine the macroeconomic and political developments in Zimbabwe and how they likely affect ZSE activities. We benchmark the outcomes against what attains in similar African countries. The results suggest that the ZSE is relatively large and ranks among the top 5 stock exchanges in Africa in terms of listings, but does not rank that high in terms of market capitalization and traded values. The ZSE stocks are considerably under-valued. The ZSE is still lagging behind in terms of automation of trading and settlement systems. There is need for a speedy implementation of planned programs that include automation. Political and economic developments seem to have a bearing on ZSE performance. We conclude that the ZSE has potential to support growth in the multicurrency period. However, this potential needs to be unlocked through the implementation of the various planned projects and programmes. The ZSE seems sensitive to the political and economic developments in the country. Key Words: Market Capitalization, Market Turnover and Listings. v Acknowledgements We acknowledge the assistance of officials in the institutions where we collected the research data and other information. The institutions include the Zimbabwe Stock Exchange (ZSE), African stock exchanges, the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe (RBZ), the Zimbabwe Statistical Agency (ZIMSTAT), the Securities Commission of Zimbabwe (SECZ) and the World Bank. ZEPARU Working Paper Series (ZWPS 01/11) List of Acronyms ASEA African Securities Exchange Association ATMs Automated Teller Machines CoSSE Committee of Southern African Development Community Stock Exchanges CSD Central Securities Depository CPI Consumer Price Index FDI Foreign Direct Investments GDP Gross Domestic Product GNU Government of National Unity IEE Indigenization and Economic Empowerment IOSCO International Committee for Securities Commission IPF Investor Protection Fund IT Information Technology LOLR Lender-of-the-last-resort NGO Non-Governmental Organization RBZ Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe RTGS Real Time Gross Settlement System NRZ National Railways of Zimbabwe SADC Southern African Community SADCSEC SADC Stock Exchange Committee SECZ Zimbabwe Securities Exchange Commission SMEs Small-to-Medium Enterprises UNDP United Nations Development Programme WFE Federation of World Exchanges ZIMSTA Zimbabwe Statistical Agency ZESA Zimbabwe Electricity
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