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Monetary Policy Statement Monetary Policy Statement BY DR. G. GONO GOVERNOR RESERVE BANK OF ZIMBABWE January 2011 2011 MonJaenutaray2r0y11 :: Policy Statement ISSUED IN TERMS OF THE RESERVE BANK OF ZIMBABWE ACT CHAPTER 22:15, SECTION 46 By DR. G. GONO GOVERNOR RESERVE BANK OF ZIMBABWE JANUARY 2011 tableof Contents INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND 5 GLOBAL REAL SECTOR DEVELOPMENTS 6 GLOBAL OUTLOOK 8 GLOBAL INFLATION DEVELOPMENTS 9 INTERNATIONAL COMMODITY PRICE DEVELOPMENTS 10 CAPITAL FLOWS 13 ZIMBABWE: REAL SECTOR OVERVIEW 15 AGRICULTURE 15 TOBACCO 16 SUGAR 17 MINING 17 PLATINUM 19 CHROME 19 NICKEL 19 COAL 19 MANUFACTURING 20 TOURISM 20 INFLATION 21 YEAR-ON-YEAR INFLATION 22 MONTH-ON-MONTH INFLATION 23 SOUTH AFRICAN RAND VERSUS UNITED STATES DOLLAR 24 OIL PRICE DEVELOPMENTS 25 MONETARY DEVELOPMENTS 25 DISTRIBUTIONS OF CREDIT TO THE PRIVATE SECTOR 26 MULTINATIONAL BANKS 27 LOANS TO DEPOSITS RATIOS AS AT 31 DECEMBER 2010 27 FINANCIAL SECTOR DEVELOPMENTS 28 ARCHITECTURE OF THE BANKING SECTOR 29 tableof Contents STATUS OF BANKING SECTOR CAPITALISATION 30 CAPITALISATION LEVELS OF BANKING INSTITUTIONS 30 LEVEL OF CAPITALISATION OF ASSET MANAGEMENT COMPANIES (AMCS) 31 STATUS OF MICROFINANCE INSTITUTIONS 31 BANK CHARGES AND DEPOSIT RATES 31 BASE II IMPLEMENTATION 32 FINANCIAL INCLUSION 32 MERGER AND ACQUISITIONS 33 KINGDOM BANK LIMITED 33 INTERFIN BANKING CORPORATION LIMITED 33 PREMIER BANKING CORPORATION 33 EXTERNAL SECTOR DEVELOPMENTS 34 EXTERNAL DEBT DEVELOPMENTS 35 SHORT-TERM TRADE FINANCE FACILITIES 35 EXCHANGE CONTROL 37 EXPORT PERFORMANCE FOR THE YEAR 2010 38 EXPORT PERFORMANCE BY SECTOR 38 MINING 39 AGRICULTURE 41 HORTICULTURE 42 MANUFACTURING 43 CROSS-BORDER ROAD FREIGHT 44 FOREIGN PAYMENTS FOR THE YEAR 2010 46 GLOBAL FOREIGN PAYMENTS 46 FOREIGN PAYMENTS BY SECTOR 47 SOURCES OF FUNDING FOR FOREIGN PAYMENTS 48 GLOBAL FOREIGN PAYMENTS BY SOURCE OF FUNDS 50 FOREIGN PAYMENTS BY CATEGORY 50 GLOBAL FOREIGN CURRENCY TRANSACTIONS 50 tableof Contents COMPARISON OF GLOBAL FOREIGN CURRENCY RECEIPTS FOR THE YEARS 2009 AND 2010 50 EXPORTERS AND NON-EXPORTERS PAYMENTS AS FROM 01 JANUARY 2010 TO 31 DEC 2010 51 FOREIGN CURRENCY REMITTANCES 51 POLICY MEASURES TO CURB EXTERNALISATION OF FOREIGN CURRENCY 53 LIBERALISED EXCHANGE CONTROL FRAMEWORK 53 ISSUANCE OF EXPORTER’S REGISTRATION CERTIFICATES 54 EXTENSION OF CREDIT TERM PERIOD FOR EXPORTED GOODS 54 RE-DESIGNATION OF FOREIGN CURRENCY ACCOUNTS (FCAS) 55 NATIONAL PAYMENT SYSYTEMS OVERVIEW 57 LARGE VALUE PAYMENT SYTEMS 57 REAL TIME GROSS SETTLEMENT SYSTEM 57 RETAIL PAYMENTS 58 INTER-BANK CHEQUE SYSTEM 58 CARD PAYMENT SYSTEM 59 POS AND ATMS VALUES AND VOLUMES FROM JANURY TO NOVEMBER 2010 60 MOBILE AND INTERNET PAYMENT SYSTEMS 61 SECURITIES SETTLEMENT 62 REGIONAL AND INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENTS 62 POLICY ADVICE 63 SANCTIONS 64 CONCLUSION 64 MonJaenutaray2r0y11 :: Policy Statement 1. INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND 1.1 This Monetary Policy Statement is issued in terms of Section 46 of the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe Act (Chapter 22:15) to set the country’s Monetary Policy for the next 6 months. 1.2 The Policy Statement comes against the background of renewed inflationary upside risks, underpinned by several factors which include fuel price increases, wage costs increases that are higher than real productivity growth, particularly in manufacturing, agriculture and services sectors; and the rising imported inflation index through cross exchange rate effects of a stronger South African rand. 1.3 These real inflationary pressures, if not swiftly kept in check through measures that sustain increased capacity utilization and overall economic productivity can work to seriously undermine and negate the macroeconomic gains the country registered over the past two years. 1.4 Under the multiple currency system, the efficiency of the instrument of monetary aggregates as a tool to fend off inflationary pressures is highly limited, as money supply in the economy has become exogenous to Monetary Authorities’ discretionary policy framework. 1.5 This neutrality of monetary aggregates magnifies the need for the country to fight inflation predominantly through the supply side of the economy, supported by circumspect fiscal management. 1.6 Coming from the painful background of strenuously dry internal liquidity conditions in the domestic financial market, another strategic area that ought to guide overall macroeconomic policies over the outlook period is foreign investment promotion and retention. January2011 5 Monetary :: Policy Statement MonJaenutaray2r0y11 :: Policy Statement 1.7 It is for this reason that the newly created One Stop Shop for investors comes as a bold step in the right direction. 1.8 Investment promotion and retention, however, requires that the country remains steadfastly consistent in creating the necessary conditions for Zimbabwe to compete favourably with regional economies in attracting international capital. 2. GLOBAL REAL SECTOR DEVELOPMENTS 2.1 Global economic activity rebounded in 2010, following pronounced declines experienced in 2009 in the wake of the global financial crisis. The World economy is estimated to have grown by 4.8% in 2010, well above the 3.6% average growth rate of the previous decade. 2.2 Post global economic crisis opportunities in trade, investment, infrastructure development and energy generation provided substantial growth impetus to economic activity the world over. 2.3 Emerging and developing economies recorded stronger growth of 7.1%, compared to a growth of 2.7% in advanced economies. Growth in emerging market economies was spurred by expansion in domestic demand in China, India and Indonesia. 2.4 The US economy is estimated to have grown modestly by 2.6% in 2010 and is forecast to grow further by 2.3% in 2011, supported by rising private consumption, increased investment in business equipment and software, rebounding profits, and normalizing financial conditions. January2011 6 Monetary :: Policy Statement MonJaenutaray2r0y11 :: Policy Statement 2.5 China is estimated to have grown by 10.5% in 2010, driven by domestic demand emanating from major fiscal stimulus, a large expansion of credit, and a number of specific measures to boost household incomes and consumption. In 2011, China is projected to grow by 9.6%. The slight moderation is due to tight monetary policy and the planned unwinding of fiscal stimulus in 2011. 2.6 In India, the economy is estimated to have grown by 9.7% in 2010 and is projected to grow further by 8.4% in 2011, driven by strong domestic demand. Robust corporate profits and favourable external financing encouraged investment. This notwithstanding, the contribution from net exports is projected to turn negative in 2011, as the strength in investment further boosts imports. 2.7 In the Latin American Countries, economic activity grew by 5.7% in 2010. Solid macroeconomic policy fundamentals, coupled with favourable external financing conditions and strong commodity revenues spurred economic activity in this region. Latin American economies benefited immensely from accommodative macroeconomic policy environments in Brazil, Chile, Colombia and Peru. 2.8 The Euro-area experienced a sluggish economic recovery in 2010, reflecting the downside risks of the sovereign debt crisis that engulfed the Euro-area's peripheral nations and its associated contagion effects on other countries in the Euro-area. As concerns about fiscal sustainability and financial stability intensified, European Authorities and the International Monetary Fund (IMF), intervened by providing large support packages alongside a programme of fiscal consolidation. 2.9 Real GDP in Japan is estimated to have grown by 2.8% in 2010, underpinned by recovery in exports emanating from stronger-than- January2011 7 Monetary :: Policy Statement MonJaenutaray2r0y11 :: Policy Statement anticipated recovery in the Western advanced economies and rising demand for capital goods from China. Economic growth in the Japanese economy is, however, projected to marginally slow down to 1.5% in 2011 due to the unwinding of fiscal stimulus and a sluggish labor market. 2.10 In Sub-Saharan Africa, real economic activity is estimated to have grown by 5% in 2010. Growth in the region was spurred by rebound in global incomes and high export demand from Europe and the US. In particular, firming commodity prices enhanced the viability of extractive industries in the Sub-Saharan region. The pickup in global demand and the strengthening of oil prices also supported growth in Africa’s oil-exporting economies. 2.11 South Africa, which contracted by almost 2% in 2009 is estimated to have grown by 3% in 2010, driven by strong demand for commodities from emerging markets. In addition, growth was also supported by strong domestic demand underpinned by the reduction in interest rates in 2010. South Africa’s output is expected to grow by 3.5 % in 2011. GLOBAL OUTLOOK 2.12 Global economic growth prospects remain bright, with global economic growth forecast at 4.2% in 2011. The rapid economic growth momentum in emerging and developing countries, coupled with growth in advanced economies is envisaged to continue in 2011. 2.13 With the impact of the 2008/09 crisis receding, unprecedented post-crisis recovery plans crafted in 2010 will be implemented, tested, and assessed in 2011, culminating in a new model for global economic and financial governance. January2011 8 Monetary :: Policy Statement MonJaenutaray2r0y11 :: Policy Statement 2.14 In the outlook period, substantial trade surpluses, high unemployment, weakened household balance sheets, sluggish income gains,
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