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The Gubernatorial Elections of 2015: Hard-Fought Races for the Open Seats by Jennifer M

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The Gubernatorial Elections of 2015: Hard-Fought Races for the Open Seats by Jennifer M GOVERNORS The Gubernatorial Elections of 2015: Hard-Fought Races for the Open Seats By Jennifer M. Jensen and Thad Beyle Only three governors were elected in 2015. Kentucky, Louisiana and Mississippi are the only states that hold their gubernatorial elections during the year prior to the presidential election. This means that these three states can be early indicators of any voter unrest that might unleash itself more broadly in the next year’s congressional and presidential elections, and we saw some of this in the two races where candidates were vying for open seats. Mississippi Gov. Phil Bryant (R) was elected to a second term, running in a state that strongly favored his political party. Both Kentucky and Louisiana have elected Democrats and Republicans to the governorship in recent years, and each race was seen as up for grabs by many political pundits. In the end, each election resulted in the governorship turning over to the other political party. Though Tea Party sentiments played a signifi- he lost badly to McConnell, he had name recog- cant role in the primary elections in Kentucky and nition when he entered the gubernatorial race as Louisiana, none of the general elections reflected an anti-establishment candidate who ran an out- the vigor that the Tea Party displayed in the 2014 sider’s campaign against two Republicans who had gubernatorial elections. With only two open races held elected office. Bevin funded the vast majority and one safe incumbent on the ballot, the 2015 of his primary spending himself, contributing more elections were generally not characterized as a than $2.4 million to his own campaign. His anti- major bellwether of the upcoming 2016 presiden- establishment message resonated at a time when tial election season. The Kentucky race, however, Tea Party sentiments were running high, and it is foreshadowed some of the turmoil that would play likely that he was helped when a former girlfriend out as the presidential primary races geared up. of primary candidate James Comer alleged that Comer abused her when they dated in college; Kentucky Comer and Heiner subsequently got into a spat The Kentucky election was for an open seat as when Comer accused Heiner of orchestrating the Gov. Steve Beshear (D) was term limited. Demo- allegation.1 crat Jack Conway, the sitting state attorney general, In many ways, Bevin was not a strong candidate. had an easy win in the Democratic primary over With his history of mudslinging with McConnell in retired engineer and state employee Geoff Young, the U.S. Senate campaign, and his refusal to endorse who had run previously for a U.S. House of Repre- McConnell in the general election, he was not sentatives seat and a statehouse seat. loved by the party establishment. McConnell back- The Republican primary election was hard ers had framed Bevin as both untrustworthy and fought, and in the end only 83 of the 214,193 inconsistent in describing his own record and issue total votes cast separated winner Matt Bevin and positions, charges that continued during the race second-place finisher James Comer. Two other for the governorship. For example, Bevin stated that candidates, Hal Heiner and Will Scott, received a he was opposed to gambling, yet his businesses had combined 73,316 votes compared to Bevin’s 70,480 invested heavily in casino stocks.2 He argued that and Comer’s 70,397, so Bevin won by a plurality, he had opposed the Troubled Asset Relief Program, winning fewer than one-third of votes cast in the or TARP, bailout, but he had signed a letter to the four-way race. Securities and Exchange Commission supporting Bevin, a businessman and founder of several TARP.3 He backed away from his initial pledge to companies, including Integrity Asset Management end the state’s Medicaid expansion, which would and Veracity Funds, entered politics when he ran have dropped hundreds of thousands of Kentucky against U.S. Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-KY), a five- residents from Medicaid eligibility. term incumbent and then Senate minority leader, Yet at a time when large segments of voters were in the 2014 Republican primary. Though ultimately disillusioned with politics as usual, Bevin’s overall The Council of State Governments 147 GOVERNORS Table A: Gubernatorial Elections: 1970–2015 Number of incumbent governors Democratic Lost winner Eligible to run Actually ran Won Number In general Year of races Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent In primary election 1970 35 22 63% 29 83% 24 83% 16 64% 8 36% 1 (a) 7 (b) 1971 3 3 100 0 . 1972 18 11 61 15 83 11 73 7 64 4 36 2 (c) 2 (d) 1973 2 1 50 1 50 1 100 . 1 100 1 (e) . 1974 35 27 (f) 77 29 83 22 76 17 77 5 24 1 (g) 4 (h) 1975 3 3 100 2 66 2 100 2 100 . 1976 14 9 64 12 86 8 67 5 63 3 33 1 (i) 2 (j) 1977 2 1 50 1 50 1 100 1 100 . 1978 36 21 58 29 81 23 79 16 73 7 30 2 (k) 5 (l) 1979 3 2 67 0 . 1980 13 6 46 12 92 12 100 7 58 5 42 2 (m) 3 (n) 1981 2 1 50 0 . 1982 36 27 75 33 92 25 76 19 76 6 24 1 (o) 5 (p) 1983 3 3 100 1 33 1 100 . 1 100 1 (q) . 1984 13 5 38 9 69 6 67 4 67 2 33 . 2 (r) 1985 2 1 50 1 50 1 100 1 100 . 1986 36 19 53 24 67 18 75 15 83 3 18 1 (s) 2 (t) 1987 3 3 100 2 67 1 50 . 1 100 1 (u) . 1988 12 5 42 9 75 9 100 8 89 1 11 . 1 (v) 1989 2 2 100 0 . 1990 36 19 (w) 53 33 92 23 70 17 74 6 26 . 6 (x) 1991 3 2 67 2 67 2 100 . 2 100 1 (y) 1 (z) 1992 12 8 67 9 75 4 44 4 100 . 1993 2 0 0 1 50 1 100 . 1 100 . 1 (aa) 1994 36 11 (bb) 31 30 83 23 77 17 74 6 26 2 (cc) 4 (dd) 1995 3 1 33 2 67 1 50 1 100 . 1996 11 7 64 9 82 7 78 7 100 . 1997 2 0 0 1 50 1 100 1 100 . 1998 36 11 (ee) 31 27 75 25 93 23 92 2 8 . 2 (ff) 1999 3 2 67 2 67 2 100 2 100 . 2000 11 8 73 7 88 6 86 5 83 1 17 . 1 (gg) 2001 2 2 100 0 . 2002 36 14 39 22 61 16 73 12 75 4 25 . 4 (hh) 2003 4 (ii) 1 25 2 50 2 100 . 2 100 . 2 (jj) 2004 11 6 55 11 100 8 73 4 50 4 50 2 (kk) 2 (ll) 2005 2 2 100 1 50 . 2006 36 20 56 31 86 27 87 25 93 2 7 1 (mm) 1 (nn) 2007 3 1 33 3 100 2 67 1 50 1 50 . 1 (oo) 2008 11 7 64 9 82 8 89 8 100 . 2009 2 0 0 1 50 1 100 . 1 100 . 1 (pp) 2010 37 13 35 22 60 14 64 11 79 3 21 1 (qq) 2 (rr) 2011 4 2 50 3 75 3 100 3 100 0 0 0 0 2012 12 7 58 8 67 7 88 7 100 . 2013 2 1 50 1 50 1 50 1 50 0 0 0 0 2014 36 13 36 31 86 29 81 26 72.2 3 8 1 (a) 2 (b) 2015 3 1 33 1 33 1 33 1 33 0 0 0 0 Totals: Number 629 331 478 379 294 85 22 63 Percent 100 52.6 76.0 79.3 77.6 22.4 25.9 74.1 Source: The Council of State Governments, The Book of the States, (g) David Hall, D-Okla. 2012, (Lexington, KY: The Council of State Governments, 2012), (h) John Vanderhoof, R-Colo.; Francis Sargent, R-Mass.; Malcolm 204, updated. Wilson, R-N.Y.; John Gilligan, D-Ohio. Key: (i) Dan Walker, D-Ill. (a) Albert Brewer, D-Alabama; Neil Abercrombie, D-Hawaii. (j) Sherman Tribbitt, D-Del.; Christopher ‘Kit’ Bond, R-Mo. (b) Keith Miller, R-Alaska; Winthrop Rockefeller, R-Ark.; Claude (k) Michael Dukakis, D-Mass., Dolph Briscoe, D-Texas. Kirk, R-Fla.; Don Samuelson, R-Idaho; Norbert Tieman, R-Neb.; Dewey (l) Robert F. Bennett, R-Kan.; Rudolph G. Perpich, D-Minn.; Bartlett, R-Okla.; Frank Farrar, R-S.D.; Sean Parnell, R-Alaska; Tom Meldrim Thompson, R-N.H.; Robert Straub, D-Oreg.; Martin J. Corbett, R-Pennsylvania Schreiber, D-Wis. (c) Walter Peterson, R-N.H.; Preston Smith, D-Texas. (m) Thomas L. Judge, D-Mont.; Dixy Lee Ray, D-Wash. (d) Russell Peterson, R-Del.; Richard Ogilvie, R-Ill. (n) Bill Clinton, D-Ark.; Joseph P. Teasdale, D-Mo.; Arthur A. (e) William Cahill, R-N.J. Link, D-N.D. (f) One independent candidate won: James Longley of Maine. Footnotes are continued on the next page. 148 The Book of the States 2016 GOVERNORS Table A: Gubernatorial Elections: 1970–2015, Footnotes Continued (o) Edward J. King, D-Mass. (dd) James E. Folsom, Jr., D-Ala.; Bruce King, D-N.M.; Mario (p) Frank D. White, R-Ark.; Charles Thone, R-Neb.; Robert F. Cuomo, D-N.Y.; Ann Richards, D-Texas.
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