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GOVERNORS The Gubernatorial Elections of 2015: Hard-Fought Races for the Open Seats By Jennifer M. Jensen and Thad Beyle Only three governors were elected in 2015. , and Mississippi are the only states that hold their gubernatorial elections during the year prior to the presidential election. This means that these three states can be early indicators of any voter unrest that might unleash itself more broadly in the next year’s congressional and presidential elections, and we saw some of this in the two races where candidates were vying for open seats. Mississippi Gov. Phil Bryant (R) was elected to a second term, running in a state that strongly favored his political party. Both Kentucky and Louisiana have elected Democrats and Republicans to the governorship in recent years, and each race was seen as up for grabs by many political pundits. In the end, each election resulted in the governorship turning over to the other political party.

Though Tea Party sentiments played a signifi- he lost badly to McConnell, he had name recog- cant role in the primary elections in Kentucky and nition when he entered the gubernatorial race as Louisiana, none of the general elections reflected an anti-establishment candidate who ran an out- the vigor that the Tea Party displayed in the 2014 sider’s campaign against two Republicans who had gubernatorial elections. With only two open races held elected office. Bevin funded the vast majority and one safe incumbent on the ballot, the 2015 of his primary spending himself, contributing more elections were generally not characterized as a than $2.4 million to his own campaign. His anti- major bellwether of the upcoming 2016 presiden- establishment message resonated at a time when tial election season. The Kentucky race, however, Tea Party sentiments were running high, and it is foreshadowed some of the turmoil that would play likely that he was helped when a former girlfriend out as the presidential primary races geared up. of primary candidate alleged that Comer abused her when they dated in college; Kentucky Comer and Heiner subsequently got into a spat The Kentucky election was for an open seat as when Comer accused Heiner of orchestrating the Gov. (D) was term limited. Demo- allegation.1 crat , the sitting state attorney general, In many ways, Bevin was not a strong candidate. had an easy win in the Democratic primary over With his history of mudslinging with McConnell in retired engineer and state employee Geoff Young, the U.S. Senate campaign, and his refusal to endorse who had run previously for a U.S. House of Repre- McConnell in the , he was not sentatives seat and a statehouse seat. loved by the party establishment. McConnell back- The Republican was hard ers had framed Bevin as both untrustworthy and fought, and in the end only 83 of the 214,193 inconsistent in describing his own record and issue total votes cast separated winner and positions, charges that continued during the race second-place finisher James Comer. Two other for the governorship. For example, Bevin stated that candidates, Hal Heiner and Will Scott, received a he was opposed to gambling, yet his businesses had combined 73,316 votes compared to Bevin’s 70,480 invested heavily in casino stocks.2 He argued that and Comer’s 70,397, so Bevin won by a plurality, he had opposed the Troubled Asset Relief Program, winning fewer than one-third of votes cast in the or TARP, bailout, but he had signed a letter to the four-way race. Securities and Exchange Commission supporting Bevin, a businessman and founder of several TARP.3 He backed away from his initial pledge to companies, including Integrity Asset Management end the state’s expansion, which would and Veracity Funds, entered politics when he ran have dropped hundreds of thousands of Kentucky against U.S. Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-KY), a five- residents from Medicaid eligibility. term incumbent and then Senate minority leader, Yet at a time when large segments of voters were in the 2014 Republican primary. Though ultimately disillusioned with politics as usual, Bevin’s overall

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Table A: Gubernatorial Elections: 1970–2015

Number of incumbent governors Democratic Lost winner Eligible to run Actually ran Won Number In general Year of races Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent In primary election 1970 35 22 63% 29 83% 24 83% 16 64% 8 36% 1 (a) 7 (b) 1971 3 3 100 0 ...... 1972 18 11 61 15 83 11 73 7 64 4 36 2 (c) 2 (d) 1973 2 1 50 1 50 1 100 ...... 1 100 1 (e) . . . 1974 35 27 (f) 77 29 83 22 76 17 77 5 24 1 (g) 4 (h) 1975 3 3 100 2 66 2 100 2 100 ...... 1976 14 9 64 12 86 8 67 5 63 3 33 1 (i) 2 (j) 1977 2 1 50 1 50 1 100 1 100 ...... 1978 36 21 58 29 81 23 79 16 73 7 30 2 (k) 5 (l) 1979 3 2 67 0 ...... 1980 13 6 46 12 92 12 100 7 58 5 42 2 (m) 3 (n) 1981 2 1 50 0 ...... 1982 36 27 75 33 92 25 76 19 76 6 24 1 (o) 5 (p) 1983 3 3 100 1 33 1 100 ...... 1 100 1 (q) . . . 1984 13 5 38 9 69 6 67 4 67 2 33 . . . 2 (r) 1985 2 1 50 1 50 1 100 1 100 ...... 1986 36 19 53 24 67 18 75 15 83 3 18 1 (s) 2 (t) 1987 3 3 100 2 67 1 50 ...... 1 100 1 (u) . . . 1988 12 5 42 9 75 9 100 8 89 1 11 . . . 1 (v) 1989 2 2 100 0 ...... 1990 36 19 (w) 53 33 92 23 70 17 74 6 26 . . . 6 (x) 1991 3 2 67 2 67 2 100 ...... 2 100 1 (y) 1 (z) 1992 12 8 67 9 75 4 44 4 100 ...... 1993 2 0 0 1 50 1 100 ...... 1 100 . . . 1 (aa) 1994 36 11 (bb) 31 30 83 23 77 17 74 6 26 2 (cc) 4 (dd) 1995 3 1 33 2 67 1 50 1 100 ...... 1996 11 7 64 9 82 7 78 7 100 ...... 1997 2 0 0 1 50 1 100 1 100 ...... 1998 36 11 (ee) 31 27 75 25 93 23 92 2 8 . . . 2 (ff) 1999 3 2 67 2 67 2 100 2 100 ...... 2000 11 8 73 7 88 6 86 5 83 1 17 . . . 1 (gg) 2001 2 2 100 0 ...... 2002 36 14 39 22 61 16 73 12 75 4 25 . . . 4 (hh) 2003 4 (ii) 1 25 2 50 2 100 ...... 2 100 . . . 2 (jj) 2004 11 6 55 11 100 8 73 4 50 4 50 2 (kk) 2 (ll) 2005 2 2 100 1 50 ...... 2006 36 20 56 31 86 27 87 25 93 2 7 1 (mm) 1 (nn) 2007 3 1 33 3 100 2 67 1 50 1 50 . . . 1 (oo) 2008 11 7 64 9 82 8 89 8 100 ...... 2009 2 0 0 1 50 1 100 ...... 1 100 . . . 1 (pp) 2010 37 13 35 22 60 14 64 11 79 3 21 1 (qq) 2 (rr) 2011 4 2 50 3 75 3 100 3 100 0 0 0 0 2012 12 7 58 8 67 7 88 7 100 ...... 2013 2 1 50 1 50 1 50 1 50 0 0 0 0 2014 36 13 36 31 86 29 81 26 72.2 3 8 1 (a) 2 (b) 2015 3 1 33 1 33 1 33 1 33 0 0 0 0 Totals: Number 629 331 478 379 294 85 22 63 Percent 100 52.6 76.0 79.3 77.6 22.4 25.9 74.1

Source: The Council of State Governments, The Book of the States, (g) David Hall, D-Okla. 2012, (Lexington, KY: The Council of State Governments, 2012), (h) John Vanderhoof, R-Colo.; Francis Sargent, R-Mass.; Malcolm 204, updated. Wilson, R-N.Y.; John Gilligan, D-. Key: (i) Dan Walker, D-Ill. (a) , D-; Neil Abercrombie, D-Hawaii. (j) Sherman Tribbitt, D-Del.; Christopher ‘Kit’ Bond, R-Mo. (b) Keith Miller, R-; Winthrop Rockefeller, R-Ark.; Claude (k) Michael Dukakis, D-Mass., Dolph Briscoe, D-. Kirk, R-Fla.; Don Samuelson, R-; Norbert Tieman, R-Neb.; Dewey (l) Robert F. Bennett, R-Kan.; Rudolph G. Perpich, D-Minn.; Bartlett, R-Okla.; Frank Farrar, R-S.D.; Sean Parnell, R-Alaska; Tom Meldrim Thompson, R-N.H.; Robert Straub, D-Oreg.; Martin J. Corbett, R- Schreiber, D-Wis. (c) Walter Peterson, R-N.H.; Preston Smith, D-Texas. (m) Thomas L. Judge, D-Mont.; Dixy Lee Ray, D-Wash. (d) Russell Peterson, R-Del.; Richard Ogilvie, R-Ill. (n) , D-Ark.; Joseph P. Teasdale, D-Mo.; Arthur A. (e) William Cahill, R-N.J. Link, D-N.D. (f) One independent candidate won: James Longley of Maine. Footnotes are continued on the next page.

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Table A: Gubernatorial Elections: 1970–2015, Footnotes Continued

(o) Edward J. King, D-Mass. (dd) James E. Folsom, Jr., D-Ala.; Bruce King, D-N.M.; Mario (p) Frank D. White, R-Ark.; Charles Thone, R-Neb.; Robert F. Cuomo, D-N.Y.; Ann Richards, D-Texas. List, R-Nev.; Hugh J. Gallen, D-N.H.; William P. Clements, R-Texas. (ee) Two Independent candidates won: Angus King of Maine and (q) David Treen, R-La. Jesse Ventura of Minnesota. (r) Allen I. Olson, R-N.D.; John D. Spellman, R-Wash. (ff) , R-Ala.; David Beasley, R-S.C. (s) Bill Sheffield, D-Alaska (gg) Cecil Underwood, R-W. Va. (t) Mark White, D-Texas; Anthony S. Earl, D-Wis. (hh) Don Siegelman, D-Ala.; Roy Barnes, D-Ga., Jim Hodges, (u) , D-La. D-S.C.; and Scott McCallum, R-Wis. (v) Arch A. Moore, R-W. Va. (ii) The recall election and replacement vote of 2003 (w) Two Independent candidates won: Walter Hickel (Alaska) and is included in the 2003 election totals and as a general election for Lowell Weiker (Conn.). Both were former statewide Republican office the last column. holders. (jj) Gray Davis, D-Calif., Ronnie Musgrove, D-Miss. (x) Bob Martinez, R-Fla.; Mike Hayden, R-Kan.; James Blanchard, (kk) Bob Holden, D-Mo.; Olene Walker, R-Utah, lost in the pre- D-Mich.; Rudy Perpich, DFL-Minn.; Kay Orr, R-Neb.; Edward DiPrete, primary convention. R-R.I. (ll) Joe Kernan, D-Ind.; Craig Benson, R-N.H. (y) , R-La. (mm) Frank Murkowski, R-Alaska. (z) Ray Mabus, D-Miss. (nn) Robert Ehrlich, R-Md. (aa) James Florio, D-N.J. (oo) , R-Ky. (bb) One Independent candidate won: Angus King of Maine. (pp) Jon Corzine, D-N.J. (cc) Bruce Sundlun, D-R.I.; Walter Dean Miller, R-S.D. (qq) Jim Gibbons, R-Nev. (rr) Chet Culver, D-; Ted Strickland, D-Ohio. message resonated. Campaigning on a platform to Kentucky voters were very familiar with Demo- improve the economy, roll back the Common Core cratic Party nominee Jack Conway, who had served curriculum in schools, pass right-to-work legisla- two terms as state attorney general, and who had tion to eliminate the requirement that employees run unsuccessfully for the U.S. Senate in 2010, losing must pay dues to unions, and fight the Obama to in the general election. Conway’s issue White House on issues such as the Affordable positions were in line with those of the Democratic Care Act, Bevin kept the general election race a Party, including raising the minimum wage, maintain- tossup until the end. ing the state expansion of Medicaid that would bring The fact that Bevin could keep the election com- coverage to 10 percent of the state, maintaining the petitive speaks to the power of national political state’s labor laws regarding union membership, mood and the dissatisfaction with Obama that was and strengthening early childhood education. widespread in Kentucky.4 The same disillusioned Conway had deep support from the Democratic Kentucky voters who would throw their support Party as he ran for , and he spent more to in Kentucky’s Republican presi- than twice what Bevin spent in the general election dential primary in March 2016 turned to Bevin in campaign. The spending by the candidates is only the governor’s race. Bevin was likely helped by one source of campaign funding in the race, how- county clerk ’s refusal to certify gay ever, as the political parties and other political marriages in her Kentucky county two months groups made their own expenditures. The Repub- before the election. Davis’s stand made national lican Governors Association spent $5 million on headlines and galvanized evangelical voters. Bevin the race, some of which came in the form of blister- visited her when she was jailed for contempt of ing attack ads about Conway in the crucial final court, saying that the state did not have the right to weeks.6 The Democratic Governors Association- force a government official to act against religious funded superPAC Kentucky Family Values spent at beliefs. All this helped Bevin stay competitive in a least $3.5 million supporting Conway.7 The race was state that had elected only two other Republican widely acknowledged as an especially bitter one. governors since the 1940s. In an election year that favored outsiders, Conway In the general election, Bevin’s campaign was had a difficult task: turning out Democratic voters helped by sizeable contributions from others. As in Louisville and Lexington without losing the the campaign kicked into high gear in the summer, more conservative vote in the rest of the state. A the Republican Governors Association ran televi- candidate who was considered by many to be a sion ads supporting Bevin. RGA support did not strong policymaker but by some a slightly stilted continue in the final weeks of the campaign, but it campaigner, he was unable to beat Bevin’s out- provided critical steam for Bevin.5 sider candidacy at a time that favored political

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Table B: Total Cost of Gubernatorial Elections: 1977–2015 (in thousands of dollars)

Total campaign costs Average cost Number per state Year of races Actual $ 2014$ (a) (2014$)(b) 1977 2 $12,312 $47,336 $23,668 1978 36 (c) 102,342 365,638 10,157 1979 3 32,744 105,050 35,017 Sources: Thad Beyle, Jennifer Jensen and The Council of State 1980 13 35,634 100,746 7,750 Governments. 1981 2 24,648 63,168 31,584 Key: (a) Developed from the table “Historic Consumer Price Index for 1982 36 181,832 438,890 12,191 All Urban Consumers (CPI-U),” created by the Bureau of Labor 1983 3 39,966 93,466 31,155 Statistics for the U.S. Department of Labor. Each year’s expenditures 1984 13 47,156 105,731 8,133 are converted into the 2014$ value of the dollar by dividing those $ expenditures by the percent of that year’s CPI-U value to control 1985 2 18,859 40,829 20,415 for the effect of inflation or recession over the period. 1986 36 270,605 575,143 15,976 (b) Average cost per state is the result of dividing the 2014$ total 1987 3 40,212 82,452 27,484 campaign expenditures by the number of elections held that year. 1988 12 (d) 52,208 102,812 8,568 (c) The expenditure data of 1978 are a particular problem as the two sources compiling data on this year’s elections did so in differing 1989 2 47,902 89,991 44,995 ways that excluded some candidates. The result is that the numbers 1990 36 345,493 615,742 17,104 for 1978 under-represent the acutal costs of these elections by some unknown amount. The sources are: Rhodes Cook and Stacy West, 1991 3 34,564 59,114 19,705 “1978 Advantage,” CQ Weekly Report, (1979): 1757–1758, and The Great 1992 12 60,278 100,080 8,340 Louisiana Spendathon (Baton Rouge: Public Affairs Research Council, March 1980). 1993 2 36,195 58,351 29,175 (d) As of the 1986 election, Arkansas switched to a four-year term 1994 36 417,873 656,826 18,245 for the governor, hence the drop from 13 to 12 for this off-year. 1995 3 35,693 54,560 18,187 (e) As of the 1994 election, Rhode Island switched to a four-year 1996 11 (e) 68,610 101,871 9,261 term for the governor, hence the drop from 12 to 11 for this off-year. (f) In 2003, there was a special recall and replacement election 1997 2 44,823 65,055 32,528 held in California in which voters elected to recall incumbent Gov. 1998 36 470,326 672,182 18,672 Gray Davis (D) from office and replace him with Gov. Arnold Schwarz­ 1999 3 16,276 22,757 7,586 enegger (R), hence the fourth election in this off-year instead of the normal three. 2000 11 97,098 131,125 11,920 (g) In 2010, Utah held a special election to elect Gov. Gary Herbert (R) to the position which he had been appointed to in 2009. In 2009, 2001 3 70,400 92,607 30,869 then Lt. Gov. Herbert succeeded to the office of governor after Jon 2002 36 841,427 1,089,649 30,268 Hunstman (R) left to become U.S. ambassador to China. Under Utah 2003 4 (f) 69,939 88,564 22,141 law, voters must agree that a succeeding governor can hold the role 2004 11 112,625 138,889 12,626 until the next regularly scheduled election. (h) In 2011, West Virginia held a special election to elect Gov. 2005 2 131,996 157,438 78,719 Earl Ray Tomblin (D) to the position he had been appointed to 2006 36 727,552 840,712 23,353 in 2010. Tomblin was appointed governor upon the resignation 2007 3 93,803 105,385 35,128 of Gov. Joe Manchin (D), who won a seat in the U.S. Senate. West Virginia law requires a special election must be held in the case of 2008 11 118,912 128,651 11,696 a gubernatorial succession. 2009 2 92,911 100,001 50,000 (i) In 2012, Wisconsin held a special recall and replacement elec- tion focused on Gov. Scott Walker (R). Walker received 53 percent 2010 37 (g) 920,735 983,586 26,583 of the vote and was not recalled. In North Dakota, the law has been 2011 4 (h) 45,934 47,570 11,893 changed so that candidates no longer have to report the amount of 2012 12 (i) 144,044 146,149 12,179 $ expenditures made in the campaign. (j) Amounts for 2015 gubernatorial elections are in 2015$. 2013 2 84,746 84,746 42,373 2014 36 704,300 704,300 19,564 2015 (j) 3 48,764 48,764 16,255

outsiders. Conway also may have been hurt by his Louisiana decision as state attorney general not to appeal a As the Kentucky governorship was changing hands federal judge’s decision to strike down part of the from a Democrat to a Republican, the Louisiana state’s ban on gay marriage.8 In the end, Bevin beat governorship was changing hands from a Republi- Conway 52.5 to 43.8 percent, winning 106 of 120 can—the incumbent governor, , who counties. His running mate for lieutenant governor, was term limited—to a Democrat. In the end, state , became the first African-Amer- Rep. won the governorship with ican elected to statewide office in Kentucky. 56.11 percent of the vote in the general election.

150 The Book of the States 2016 GOVERNORS

Louisiana has a nonpartisan blanket primary for campaign heated up, polls started showing that all candidates. In this so-called jungle primary, the Edwards had a shot against Vitter in the runoff.11 top two vote-getters participate in a runoff elec- Edwards, a West Point graduate, former U.S. tion if there is no majority winner. Because the Army Ranger and social conservative, took a strong 2015 gubernatorial election would be before his anti- stance during the campaign.12 On U.S. Senate seat was up for reelection in 2016, U.S. bread-and-butter issues, he took more traditional Sen. was able to throw his hat in the Democratic stances on issues such as education ring for governor while knowing that if he lost, he funding. He advocated cutting both spending and could still run for reelection in the Senate—and if tax breaks to address the state’s enormous budget he won, as governor he could appoint the replace- deficit and was the only major candidate to state ment to complete his term in the Senate. (By the early that he would accept Medicaid expansion time of the general election, Vitter had announced funding from the federal government. As the race that if he lost the race for governor, he would not moved into summer, Edwards began to get more run for reelection to the Senate.) attention and more financial support. Vitter, the most conservative candidate in the The four major candidates spent nearly $30 mil- race, remained the leading Republican in the race lion on their campaigns, and outside groups spent throughout the gubernatorial primary, though two heavily in the race, particularly as the runoff heated other experienced Republican candidates main- up. Counting these expenses, approximately $50 tained strong showings throughout the campaign. million was spent on the race. In the end, Vitter beat the next biggest vote-getter, former lieutenant governor and sitting public Mississippi service commissioner , by just over Mississippi’s gubernatorial election was a foregone three points. conclusion, with the most interesting activity in the Longstanding personal issues dogged Vitter primary elections rather than the general election. throughout the campaign. In 2007, three years into Incumbent governor and former lieutenant gov- his Senate term, Vitter’s phone number was linked ernor Phil Bryant ran for a second term, and he to telephone records of a high-end escort service. drew no strong competitors. With more than $2.4 Vitter stated that he had called the service, and he million on hand at the end of 2014,13 his financial apologized for “a grave sin,” but denied ever using resources were more than an order of magnitude prostitutes and claimed that he was the victim of a greater than all other candidates combined. political smear campaign.9 Considered extremely That no other candidate in the race but Bryant vulnerable at the start of his 2010 Senate reelec- had held or even run for office previously speaks tion bid, he ran a strong campaign in a year when to the strength of the Republican Party in state- anti- sentiment was high in Louisi- wide races. Since 1991, a Democrat has won the ana, and ultimately won reelection with more than governorship only once—Ronnie Musgrove in 56 percent of the vote. Yet the family values con- 1999—and he won with a plurality of 49.6 percent servative was never able to shake concerns about of the vote against Republican Mike Parker’s 48.5 his personal integrity. The allegations percent. That race was ultimately decided by the were raised by his opponents during both the pri- Mississippi House of Representatives.14 The three mary and runoff elections. The three Republican other most recent governors were all Republicans candidates for governor—Vitter, Angelle and Lt. who were elected to two terms before being term- Gov. —engaged in bitter infighting limited out of office. that hurt Vitter’s ability to run a strong campaign Bryant was elected in the 2011 general election in the runoff. (Angelle did not endorse a candidate by 22 points over Democrat Johnny Dupree, for- in the runoff election; Dardenne endorsed Vitter’s mer mayor of Hattiesburg. Bryant entered the 2015 opponent.)10 election season with polling numbers that were Most pundits gave the advantage to Vitter, strong enough to indicate that it would be very and spring and summer polls showed him with unlikely that a Democrat would win the governor- more support than Democrat John Bel Edwards. ship for the first time in 16 years. This is despite the Edwards did not garner much attention early in fact that nearly three years into his first term in the the race and ran a thinly staffed campaign. He office, Bryant was number one on the list of “most was a strong candidate to challenge Vitter in the boring governors,” as ranked by the percentage of runoff, however, and as fall began and the primary respondents who responded in the “don’t know/

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Table C: Cost of Gubernatorial Campaigns, Most Recent Elections, 2012–2015

Total campaign expenditures Winner Point All candidates Cost per vote Percent of all Vote State Year Winner margin (2014$) (2014$) Spent (2014$) expenditures percent Alabama...... 2014 R★ +27.26 $7,990,363 6.77 $6,769,778 84.7% 63.6% Alaska...... 2014 I★★★ +2.22 1,791,047 6.40 847,593 47.3 48.1 Arizona...... 2014 R# +11.90 20,471,454 13.59 7,910,241 38.6 53.5 Arkansas...... 2014 R# +12.96 15,950,408 18.79 5,883,158 38.9 55.5 California...... 2014 D★ +20.00 13,772,803 18.82 5,945,649 43.7 60.0 ...... 2014 D★ +3.14 10,619,170 5.20 5,463,070 51.5 49.2 Connecticut...... 2014 D★ +2.82 16,892,137 15.46 6,735,418 39.9 51.4 Delaware...... 2012 D★ +40.64 1,958,861 4.92 1,656,189 96.5 69.3 ...... 2014 R★ +1.08 22,872,029 3.84 10,447,966 45.7 48.2 ...... 2014 R★ +7.86 10,739,159 4.21 1,588,830 14.8 52.8 Hawaii...... 2014 D# +12.30 9,173,312 25.04 2,029,646 22.1 49.0 Idaho...... 2014 R★ +15.35 6,595,929 6.70 2,143,926 32.5 54.9 ...... 2014 R★ +3.92 102,434,649 28.16 65,426,075 63.9 50.3 ...... 2012 R# +2.89 20,535,517 7.97 13,085,571 65.7 49.5 Iowa...... 2014 R★ +21.80 10,516,834 9.31 8,577,632 81.6 59.0 Kansas...... 2014 R★ +3.70 7,121,660 8.19 2,268,612 31.9 49.8 Kentucky...... 2015 R# +8.70 24,747,726 (b) 25.42 (b) 5,758,718 (b) 23.3 52.5 Louisiana...... 2015 D# +12.20 19,618,604 (b) 17.02 (b) 8,679,334 (b) 44.2 56.1 Maine...... 2014 R★ +4.77 7,897,902 12.92 1,906,350 24.1 47.7 Maryland...... 2014 R# +3.80 24,496,947 14.17 4,929,224 20.1 51.0 ...... 2014 R# +2.88 21,606,838 10.00 6,762,699 31.3 48.5 Michigan...... 2014 R★ +5.74 21,812,323 6.91 14,498,509 66.5 51.7 Minnesota...... 2014 D★ +5.56 5,451,188 2.76 3,039,926 55.8 50.1 Mississippi...... 2015 R★ +34.10 4,397,406 (b) 6.12 (b) 4,079,731 (b) 92.8 66.4 Missouri...... 2012 D★ +12.10 27,018,238 9.90 15,512,314 59.2 54.7 Montana...... 2012 D# +1.56 4,656,165 9.53 1,708,031 36.7 48.9 ...... 2014 R# +17.51 14,760,429 27.35 7,059,254 47.8 57.2 ...... 2014 R★ +46.89 3,617,676 6.61 3,513,555 97.1 70.6 New Hampshire.... 2014 D★ +9.08 3,341,358 6.87 1,472,416 44.1 52.5 New Jersey...... 2013 R★ +22.10 27,040,070 12.75 19,820,437 75.6 60.3 New Mexico...... 2014 R★ +14.44 12,486,204 24.35 8,501,999 88.5 57.2 New York...... 2014 D★ +13.97 59,541,778 15.59 52,663,635 88.5 54.3 North Carolina...... 2012 R# +11.49 17,398,973 3.90 11,161,800 66.2 54.7 North Dakota...... 2012 R★ +28.79 (a) (a) (a) (a) (a) Ohio...... 2014 R★ +30.96 20,166,455 6.60 16,640,931 82.5 63.8 ...... 2014 R★ +14.80 5,987,244 7.26 4,317,938 72.1 55.8 ...... 2014 D★ +5.76 8,106,083 5.51 5,006,085 61.8 49.9 Pennsylvania...... 2014 D# +9.86 75,887,787 21.70 31,364,073 41.3 54.9 Rhode Island...... 2014 D# +4.50 13,488,998 41.62 6,284,440 46.6 40.7 South Carolina...... 2014 R★ +14.46 15,110,615 12.12 7,887,670 52.2 55.9 South Dakota...... 2014 R★ +45.04 1,857,606 6.70 1,506,034 81.1 70.5 ...... 2014 R★ +47.73 4,272,410 3.16 4,246,999 99.4 70.7 Texas...... 2014 R# +20.32 78,983,336 16.74 49,460,752 67.6 59.2 Utah...... 2012 R★ +40.50 2,755,320 2.74 2,150,305 80.5 68.3 Vermont...... 2014 D★ +1.26 1,264,972 6.55 961,469 76.0 46.8 Virginia...... 2013 D# +2.52 60,353,635 26.93 32,417,401 53.4 47.8 Washington...... 2012 D# +3.40 24,559,984 8.00 11,484,573 48.2 51.5 West Virginia...... 2012 D★ +4.85 6,897,808 10.38 3,376,110 50.5 50.5 Wisconsin...... 2014 R★ +5.74 46,336,867 19.22 29,673,716 52.9 52.9 Wyoming...... 2014 R★ +31.52 4,118,264 24.53 626,707 49.2 52.5

Sources: Thad Beyle, Jennifer Jensen, Aaron Luedtke and The Council (a) Data unavailable due to a change in North Dakota’s campaign of State Governments. contribution reporting requirements. They are no longer required to Note: All dollar figures are in equivalent 2014$ except Kentucky, file the $ expenditures by candidates, but must file data on contribu- Louisiana and Mississippi, which are in 2015$. tions of $200 or more received by candidates. Key: (b) Dollar figures for Kentucky, Louisiana and Mississippi are in D — Democrat I — Independent R — Republican 2015$ amounts. # — Open seat ★ — Incumbent ran and won. ★★ — Incumbent ran and lost in party primary. ★★★ — Incumbent ran and lost in general election.

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Table D: Women Governors in the States

Year elected How woman Last elected or succeeded became Previous position held Governor State to office governor Tenure of service offices held before governorship Phase I—From initial statehood to adoption of the 19th Amendment to U.S. Constitution (1920) No women elected or served as governor Phase II—Wives of former governors elected governor, 1924 –1966 Nellie Tayloe Ross (D) Wyoming 1924 E 1/1925 –1/1927 F . . . Miriam “Ma” Ferguson (D) Texas 1924 E 1/1925 –1/1927 F . . . 1/1933 –1/1935 (D) Alabama 1966 E 1/1967–5/1968 F . . . Phase III—Women who became governor on their own merit, 1970 to date Ella Grasso (D) Connecticut 1974 E 1/1975 –12/1980 SH, SOS, (a) (a) Dixy Lee Ray (D) Washington 1976 E 1/1977–1/1981 (b) . . . Vesta M. Roy (R) New Hampshire 1982 S (c) 12/1982 –1/1983 (d) (d) (D) Kentucky 1983 E 12/1983 –12/1987 (e), LG LG Madeleine M. Kunin (D) Vermont 1984 E 1/1985 –1/1991 SH, LG LG Kay A. Orr (R) Nebraska 1986 E 1/1987–1/1991 T T Rose Mofford (D) Arizona 1988 S (f) 4/1988 –1/1991 SOS SOS Joan Finney (D) Kansas 1990 E 1/1991–1/1995 T T Barbara Roberts (D) Oregon 1990 E 1/1991–1/1995 (g), C, SH, SOS SOS Ann Richards (D) Texas 1990 E 1/1991–1/1995 C, T T Christy Whitman (R) New Jersey 1993 E 1/1994 –1/2001 (h) (h) Jeanne Shaheen (D) New Hampshire 1996 E 1/1997–1/2003 (d) (d) Jane Dee Hull (R) Arizona 1997 S (i) 9/1997–1/2003 (j), SOS SOS Nancy P. Hollister (R) Ohio 1998 S (k) 12/1998 –1/1999 LG LG Ruth Ann Minner (D) Delaware 2000 E 1/2001–1/2009 SH, SS, LG LG Judy Martz (R) Montana 2000 E 1/2001–1/2005 LG LG Sila Calderón (Pop D) Puerto Rico 2000 E 1/2001–1/2005 M M Jane Swift (R) Massachusetts 2001 S (l) 4/2001–1/2003 SS, LG LG Janet Napolitano (D) Arizona 2002 E 1/2003 –1/2009 (m), AG AG Linda Lingle (R) Hawaii 2002 E 12/2002 –12/2010 C, M (n) M Kathleen Sebelius (D) Kansas 2002 E 1/2003 – 4/2009 SH, (o) (o) Jennifer Granholm (D) Michigan 2002 E 1/2003 –1/2011 (p), AG AG Olene Walker (R) Utah 2003 S (q) 11/2003 –1/2005 SH, LG LG (D) Louisiana 2003 E 1/2004 –1/2008 SH, LG LG M. Jodi Rell (R) Connecticut 2004 S (r) 7/2004 –1/2011 SH, LG LG Christine Gregoire (D) Washington 2004 E 1/2005 –1/2013 AG AG Sarah Palin (R) Alaska 2006 E 1/2007–7/2009 M (s) M Beverly Perdue (D) North Carolina 2008 E 1/2009–1/2013 SH, SS, LG LG Jan Brewer (R) Arizona 2009 S (t) 1/2009–12/2014 C, SH, SS, SOS SOS Susana Martinez (R) New Mexico 2010 E 1/2011– (u) (u) (R) Oklahoma 2010 E 1/2011– (a) (a) Nikki Haley (R) South Carolina 2010 E 1/2011– SH SH Maggie Wood Hassan (D) New Hampshire 2012 E 1/2013– SS SS Gina Raimondo (D) Rhode Island 2014 E 1/2015– ST ST (D) Oregon 2015 S (v) 2/2015– SH, SS, SOS SOS

Sources: National Governors Association website, www.nga.org, (k) Hollister as lieutenant governor became governor when Gov. and individual state government websites. George Voinovich stepped down to serve in the U.S. Senate. Key: (l) Swift as lieutenant governor succeeded Gov. Paul Celluci who S — Succeeded to office upon death, resignation or removal of resigned after being appointed ambassador to Canada. Was the first the incumbent governor. governor to give birth while serving in office. AG — Attorney general M — Mayor (m) U.S. attorney. C — City council or SH — State House member (n) Lingle was mayor of Maui for two terms, elected in 1990 and 1996. county commission (o) Insurance commissioner. E — Elected governor SOS — Secretary of state (p) Federal prosecutor. F — Former first lady SS — State Senate member (q) Walker as lieutenant governor succeeded to the governorship LG — Lieutenant governor T — State treasurer upon the resignation of Gov. Mike Leavitt in 2003. (a) Congresswoman. (r) Rell as lieutenant governor succeeded to the governorship upon (b) Ray served on the U.S. Atomic Energy Commission from 1972 the resignation of Gov. John Rowland in 2004. to 1975 and was chair of the AEC from 1973 to 1975. (s) Palin was a two-term Mayor of Wasilla, Alaska, and had unsuc- (c) Roy as state Senate president succeeded to office upon the cessfully sought the lieutenant governor’s office in 2002. In 2008, death of Gov. Hugh Gallen. Palin was nominated to be the vice presidential candidate on the (d) State Senate president. Republican ticket with U.S. Sen. John McCain. (e) State Supreme Court clerk. (t) Brewer as secretary of state succeeded to the governorship (f) Mofford as secretary of state became acting governor in Feb- upon the resignation of Gov. Janet Napolitano in January 2009 after ruary 1988 and governor in April 1988 upon the impeachment and her confirmation as head of the U.S. Department of Homeland removal of Gov. Evan Mecham. Security. Brewer then won a full term in the 2010 election. (g) Local school board member. (u) —Dona Ana County, N.M. (h) Whitman was a former state utilities official. (v) Kate Brown as secretary of state succeded to the governorship (i) Hull as secretary of state became acting governor when Gov. upon the resignation of Gov. John Kitzhaber in February 2015 after Fife Symington resigned. Elected to full term in 1998. allegations of criminal wrongdoing involving the role his fiancée, (j) Speaker of the state House. Cylvia Hayes, held in his office.

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Table E: 2012–2015 Governors’ Race Winners by Party and Margin

Democratic winners Republican winners Independent winners Election Percent Point Election Percent Point Election Percent Point State Year of win margin State Year of win margin State Year of win margin Delaware...... 2012 69.3 +40.7 Nevada...... 2014 70.6 +46.7 Alaska...... 2014 48.1 +2.2 California...... 2014 59.8 +19.6 South Dakota...... 2014 70.5 +45.0 Vermont...... 2012 57.8 +22.2 Tennessee...... 2014 70.3 +47.5 Louisiana...... 2015 56.1 +12.2 Utah...... 2012 68.4 +40.6 Pennsylvania...... 2014 54.9 +9.9 Mississippi...... 2015 66.6 +34.5 Missouri...... 2012 54.8 +12.3 Alabama ...... 2014 64.0 +28.0 New York...... 2014 54.3 +14.0 Ohio...... 2014 63.6 +30.6 New Hampshire... 2012 52.6 +12.1 North Dakota...... 2012 63.3 +28.8 New Hampshire... 2014 52.5 +9.1 Wyoming...... 2014 62.6 +33.8 Washington...... 2012 51.5 +3.0 New Jersey...... 2013 60.3 +22.1 Connecticut...... 2014 51.0 +3.0 Texas...... 2014 59.2 +20.3 West Virginia...... 2012 50.4 +4.7 Iowa...... 2014 59.0 +21.8 Minnesota...... 2014 49.8 +5.6 New Mexico...... 2014 57.2 +14.5 Oregon...... 2014 49.8 +5.8 Nebraska...... 2014 57.2 +17.9 Colorado...... 2014 49.2 +3.4 South Carolina..... 2014 55.9 +14.5 Hawaii...... 2014 49.0 +12.3 Oklahoma...... 2014 55.8 +14.8 Montana...... 2012 48.8 +1.6 Arkansas...... 2014 55.5 +13.0 Virginia...... 2013 47.8 +2.5 North Carolina..... 2012 54.7 +11.5 Vermont...... 2014 43.4 +1.3 Arizona...... 2014 53.5 +11.9 Rhode Island...... 2014 40.7 +4.5 Idaho...... 2014 53.5 +14.9 Georgia...... 2014 53.0 +8.0 Kentucky...... 2015 52.5 +8.7 Wisconsin...... 2014 52.3 +5.7 Michigan...... 2014 52.2 +5.8 Maryland...... 2014 51.0 +3.8 Illinois...... 2014 50.3 +3.9 Kansas...... 2014 50.0 +4.0 Indiana...... 2012 49.7 +3.2 Massachusetts...... 2014 48.5 +1.9 Florida...... 2014 48.1 +1.0 Maine...... 2014 48.0 +5.0

Source: Thad Beyle. Overall Results by Victory Point Margin: Party and Region

Number Number of Number of Number of Point margin of states Republicans Democrats Independents East South Midwest West 10+ points 28 20 8 0 5 10 5 8 5–10 points 9 5 4 0 3 2 3 1 0–5 points 15 6 8 1 5 3 3 4 Totals: 52 31 20 1 13 15 11 13

Source: Thad Beyle.

don’t care/refuse to answer” categories of guber- never had viable competition during his reelection natorial approval polls in 35 states. Rather than campaign, but he did draw a primary opponent. stating that they approved or disapproved of Gov. Bryant’s opponent in the Republican primary, Bryant, 28 percent of Mississippians responded Mitch Young, was a U.S. Navy veteran who criti- with ignorance or indifference when they were cized Bryant for not adequately funding education asked about their governor—more than in any of and not doing enough to improve the economy.16 the states with polling data to analyze.15 Though no Democrat had a serious chance to As an incumbent governor, a strong conservative defeat Bryant, the Democratic primary was the most in a red state, and a well-funded candidate, Bryant interesting part of the Mississippi gubernatorial

154 The Book of the States 2016 GOVERNORS

Table F: New Governors Elected Each 4-Year Period, 1970–2015 (a)

Number of New Governors Incumbents Running gubernatorial Year elections Won Percent Number Won Lost Percent Lost 1970 35 19 54 24 16 8 36 1971 3 3 100 ...... 1972 18 11 61 11 7 4 36 1973 2 2 100 1 . . . 1 100 1974 35 18 51 22 17 5 24 1975 3 1 33 2 2 ...... 1976 14 9 64 8 5 3 33 1977 2 1 50 1 1 ...... 1978 36 20 56 23 16 7 30 1979 3 3 100 ...... 1980 13 6 46 12 7 5 42 1981 2 2 100 ...... 1982 36 17 47 25 19 6 24 1983 3 3 100 1 . . . 1 100 1984 13 9 69 6 4 2 33 1985 2 1 50 1 1 ...... 1986 36 21 58 18 15 3 18 1987 3 3 100 1 . . . 1 100 1988 12 4 33 9 8 1 11 1989 2 2 100 ...... 1990 36 19 53 23 17 6 26 1991 3 3 100 2 . . . 2 100 1992 12 8 67 4 4 ...... 1993 2 1 50 1 . . . 1 100 1994 36 19 53 23 17 6 26 1995 3 2 67 1 1 ...... 1996 11 4 36 7 7 ...... 1997 2 1 50 1 1 ...... 1998 36 13 36 25 23 2 8 1999 3 1 33 2 2 ...... 2000 11 6 55 6 5 1 17 2001 2 2 100 ...... 2002 36 24 67 16 12 4 25 2003 (b) 4 4 100 2 . . . 2 100 2004 11 7 64 8 4 4 50 2005 2 2 100 ...... 2006 36 9 25 27 25 2 7 2007 3 2 67 2 1 1 50 2008 11 3 24 8 8 ...... 2009 2 2 100 1 . . . 1 100 2010 37 26 70 14 11 3 21 2011 4 1 25 3 3 ...... 2012 (c) 12 5 42 7 7 ...... 2013 2 1 50 1 1 ...... 2014 36 10 28 29 26 3 10 2015 3 2 67 1 1 ...... Totals: 629 334 53 379 294 85 23

Source: Thad Beyle. in California in which the incumbent Gov. Gray Davis (D) was Key: recalled and Republican Arnold Schwarzenegger was elected as (a) Table A: Gubernatorial Elections: 1970–2010, The Book of his replacement. the States, 2011 (Lexington, KY: The Council of State Governments, (c) In June 2012, a recall and replacement election was held in 2011), 128. Wisconsin. Gov. Scott Walker (R) won 53 percent of the votes cast (b) In 2003, there was a recall and replacement election vote and was not recalled.

election season. Two of the three candidates vying Vicki Slater was considered the favorite in the for the Democratic nomination were women, which Democratic primary. An attorney with no elective was especially notable because they were the first office experience, she previously had been presi- women to run for governor of Mississippi since 1983. dent of the Mississippi Association for Justice, a

The Council of State Governments 155 GOVERNORS trial organization.17 During her campaign, In the most recent gubernatorial campaigns Slater criticized Bryant for refusing to expand nationwide, several saw candidate spending surpass Medicaid coverage in Mississippi, as states are able $25 per general election vote. Kentucky fits into to do under the . She also this category. No doubt some of Kentucky’s high argued that the state lost jobs under Bryant and price tag stems from the fact that multimillionaire that Bryant did not adequately fund education. Bevin provided substantial self-funding, especially Slater was the best funded of the Democratic can- early in the race – spending that led to an arms race didates, spending just over $260,000 on the primary between candidates and outside groups in both the election. Republican primary and the general election as Dr. Valerie Short, an obstetrician-gynecologist other candidates outspent Bevin. and U.S. Air Force veteran, also campaigned for expanded Medicaid and more funding for public Notes schools. If she had won, Short would have fol- 1 Gerth, Joseph. 2015. “College Girlfriend Says James lowed Johnny Dupree to become only the second Comer Abused Her.” Louisville Courier-Journal online African-American gubernatorial candidate to win edition, May 5. http://www.courier-journal.com/story/ the Democratic nomination for governor in Mis- news/politics/elections/kentucky/2015/05/04/james-comer- sissippi. She spent approximately $48,500 on her domestic-violence/26901137/. Accessed March 2, 2016; primary run. Sonka, Joe. 2015. “How Matt Bevin (Most Likely) Won a The third Democratic candidate—long-haul Thrilling GOP Primary.” Insider Louisville May 20. http:// insiderlouisville.com/metro/matt-bevin-wins-primary- truck driver and retired firefighter Robert Gray— thriller-83-votes-likely-receive-gop-nomination-governor/. was the least likely to win, and so it was particularly Accessed November 15, 2015. surprising when he won 79 of the 82 counties. He 2 Gerth, Joe. 2015. “Bevin’s Gambling Stance, Invest- had neither raised nor spent any campaign funds ments at Odds.” Louisville Courier Journal online edition, before the August 4 primary. His mother did not July 21. http://www.courier-journal.com/story/news/politics/ know he was on the ballot before she voted for elections/2015/07/21/bevins-gambling-stance-investment- him, and he was too busy working on his truck to work-odds/30461831/. Accessed November 3, 2015. 3 McCormack, John. 2014. “Securities Law Expert on Matt vote in the primary himself.18 Despite a lack of Bevin’s TARP Letter: ‘There’s an Argument That He Actu- a campaign, he won just shy of 51 percent of the ally Violated the Law.’” The Weekly Standard February 13. vote compared to Slater’s 30 percent and Short’s http://www.weeklystandard.com/securities-law-expert-on- nearly 19 percent. His win was widely attributed matt-bevins-tarp-letter-theres-an-argument-that-he-actually- to two factors: being listed first on the primary violated-the-law/article/781618. Accessed March 1, 2016. ballot, and being the only man running against 4 Cizzilla, Chris. 2015. “Matt Bevin is the Next Governor two women. No woman has ever received either of Kentucky. He has President Obama to Thank.” Wash- ington Post Online, The Fix blog, November 2. https://www. party’s nomination for governor.19 As a candidate washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2015/11/03/matt- who was unknown to voters, he may have also ben- bevin-is-the-next-governor-of-kentucky-he-has-president- efitted from having a racially neutral name. Gray is obama-to-thank/. Accessed November 3, 2015. African-American, but was far less visible during 5 Barton, Ryland. 2015. “Republican Governors Associa- the campaign than either Slater or Short. tion Stops Airing Bevin Ads.” WFPL News (Louisville), Gray spent less than $8,000 campaigning for the September 29. http://wfpl.org/republican-governors-asso- general election. ciation-stops-airing-bevin-ads/. Accessed November 3, 2015. 6 Gerth, Joseph. 2015. “Bevin Leads GOP Wave, Routs Campaign Spending Conway.” Louisville Courier Journal online edition, November 4. http://www.courier-journal.com/story/news/ The Mississippi race was the least expensive of the politics/elections/kentucky/2015/11/03/jack-conway-matt- 2015 gubernatorial campaigns, both in aggregate bevin-kentucky-governor-election/74327130/. Accessed and by the amount the campaigns spent per vote in March 1, 2016. the general election. At $6.12 per vote, the Missis- 7 Loftus, Tom. 2015. “Conway Has Big Money Edge Over sippi gubernatorial election is one of the 20 states Bevin.” Louisville Courier Journal online edition, October 8. where total candidate spending was less than $10 http://www.courier-journal.com/story/news/politics/elections/ kentucky/2015/10/08/conway-has-big-money-edge-over- per vote in the most recent gubernatorial election. bevin/73568278/. Accessed March 1, 2016. Louisiana could be described as having moderate 8 Gabriel, Trip. 2014. “Kentucky Law Official Will Not spending in its gubernatorial election, not consid- Defend Ban on Same-Sex Marriage.” New York Times ering spending by outside groups. March 5, A17.

156 The Book of the States 2016 GOVERNORS

9 Moller, Jan. 2010. “Sen. David Vitter Wins Re-Election About the Authors in Remarkable Comeback.” Times-Picayune, online edi- Thad Beyle is a professor emeritus of political science tion, November 2. http://www.nola.com/politics/index. at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. After ssf/2010/11/sen_david_vitter_wins_re-elect.html. Accessed completing his undergraduate and master’s degrees at March 18, 2016. Syracuse University, he received his doctorate at the 10 Robertson, Campbell. 2015. “A Red State, but Still an University of Illinois. He spent a year in the North Caro- Uphill G.O.P. Bid.” New York Times November 20, A18. lina governor’s office in the mid-1960s, followed by two 11 See the Huffington Post Pollster blog for historical years with Terry Sanford’s “A Study of American States” polling data from the Louisiana gubernatorial primary project at Duke University. He has also worked with the election. http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2015- National Governors Association in several capacities on louisiana-governor-primary. Accessed March 18, 2016. gubernatorial transitions. 12 Robertson, Campbell. 2015. “Louisiana Democrat Jennifer M. Jensen is deputy provost for academic Leapt Big Obstacles to Beat Vitter in Governor’s Race.” affairs and associate professor of political science at Lehigh University. She earned her B.A. from the University New York Times November 23, A9. of Michigan and her M.A. and Ph.D. from the University of 13 Wyman, Hastings. 2015. “Mississippi Democrats Set for North Carolina at Chapel Hill. She has worked in the U.S. Another Shellacking.” Southern Political Report March 10. House of Representatives and in governmental relations. http://www.southernpoliticalreport.com/2015/03/10/missis- She recently authored The Governors’ Lobbyists: Federal- sippi-democrats-set-for-another-shellacking/. Accessed State Relations Offices and Governors Associations in March 12, 2016. Washington (University of Michigan Press, 2016). 14 Salter, Sid. 2015. “Looks Like Mississippi Will Have a 2015 Governor’s Race.” Hattiesburg American February 23. http://www.hattiesburgamerican.com/story/opinion/colum- nists/2015/02/24/salter-mississippi-governor-race/23952805/. Accessed March 12, 2016. 15 Hickey, Walt and Harry Enten. 2014. “The Most Boring Governors in the .” FiveThirtyEight.com article posted August 15, 2014. https://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/ the-most-blah-governors-in-the-united-states/. Accessed March 12, 2016. 16 Pettus, Emily Wagster. 2015. “Five Seek Nominations for Mississippi Governors’ Seat.” Hattiesburg American August 2. http://www.hattiesburgamerican.com/story/news/ politics/elections/2015/08/02/mississippi-governor-race/ 31028549/. Accessed March 12, 2016. 17 Pettus, Emily Wagster. 2015. “Five Seek Nominations for Mississippi Governors’ Seat.” Hattiesburg American August 2. http://www.hattiesburgamerican.com/story/news/ politics/elections/2015/08/02/mississippi-governor-race/ 31028549/. Accessed March 12, 2016. 18 Robertson, Campbell. 2015. “Shy trucker emerges as Democrats’ pick for Mississippi governor.” New York Times September 8, A1, New York edition. 19 Jackson Free Press Editorial Board. 2015. “Vicki Slater for Governor.” Jackson Free Press July 31. http://m.jackson freepress.com/news/2015/jul/31/vicki-slater-governor/. Accessed April 18, 2016.

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