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2015 State Elections by Tim Storey and Dan Diorio

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2015 State Elections by Tim Storey and Dan Diorio LEGISLATIVE ELECTIONS 2015 State Elections By Tim Storey and Dan Diorio The handful of state elections in 2015 resulted in very little change to the state partisan landscape. Republicans maintained their historically strong hold on state governments. State Partisan Landscape Mostly Unchanged cans lost full control of state government by losing after 2015 Odd-year Elections the governor’s seat, even though they retained con- The GOP remains the dominant party in control trol of both chambers of the Legislature. of state governments across the United States With the lone party control shift in Louisiana, despite a couple of governor party control flips in Republicans entered 2016 legislative sessions the handful of 2015 state elections. Republicans controlling all of state government in 22 states. control the most legislative chambers in the his- Democrats held on to their seven, and the number tory of the party. Plus, they count 31 of the nation’s of divided states ticked up to 20. Figure A shows 50 governors among their ranks. The state elec- the states where one party controls the legislature tions of 2015 were essentially a stalemate, leaving and governor’s seat, and the states where that con- Democrats to hope for a rebound in 2016 from trol is divided. disappointing results over the past six years and Republicans wondering if they can pad their siz- Legislative Seats Up able advantage in state policymaking. In total, 535 state legislative seats were up for grabs Only five states conducted regularly scheduled in 2015, representing slightly more than 7 percent elections in 2015. Louisiana, Mississippi and Vir- of the 7,383 seats in the 50 states. The outcome of ginia voters decided on all legislative seats. New the elections did not change the overall legislative Jersey held elections for the Assembly only; the partisan control map—Louisiana and Virginia state’s senators serve four-year terms and were all stayed red, Mississippi got redder and New Jersey chosen in 2013. Three states held elections for gov- got bluer. Going into, and emerging from, the 2015 ernor: Kentucky, Louisiana and Mississippi. races, Republicans controlled both houses of the None of the legislative elections led to a party legislature in 30 states, matching their highest point control shift, and two of the governor’s mansions in history set back in 1920. Democrats held the switched party control. Kentucky went from a Dem- majority in both chambers of the legislature in 11 ocrat to a Republican and Louisiana went from a states, and eight states were split. In terms of indi- Republican to a Democrat, thus cancelling each vidual legislative bodies, Republicans control 68 of other out with regard to the national tally. This led the 98 partisan legislative chambers in the country. to only one minor update to the overall partisan Nebraska has a unicameral lawmaking body whose control of states. Headed into 2015 elections, Repub- members are chosen in nonpartisan elections. licans controlled all of state government (governor, Including the slight changes in 2015, there are house and senate) in 23 states. Democrats held more than 4,125 Republican state legislators in the seven, and in 19 states, partisan control was divided country representing 56.4 percent of all state legis- with neither party having the “trifecta.” lative seats. Fewer legislators (a total of 3,163) are In an open governor’s race in Kentucky, voters serving today under the Democratic banner than handed the job from Democratic, term-limited at any point since 1928. Only 43.3 percent of partisan incumbent Steve Beshear to Republican Matt seats are held by Democrats. Twenty-four lawmakers Bevin. In the open gubernatorial race in Louisiana, are independent or from the Progressive Party, and Pelican State voters replaced term-limited Repub- the balance of the seats are either temporarily vacant lican incumbent Bobby Jindal with Democrat John or belong to the 49 nonpartisan senators in Nebraska. Bel Edwards. Kentucky remained a divided control Heading into the 2015 campaign, the Virginia state because the legislature is split control—the Senate, a 40-member chamber that has switched House is majority Democrat and the Senate is control three times in the past three years, appeared majority Republican. But in Louisiana, Republi- to be the most contested legislative chamber of the The Council of State Governments 47 LEGISLATIVE ELECTIONS Figure A: 2016 State Partisan Control Republican (22) Democrat (7) Split (20) Nonpartisan (1) Source: National Conference of State Legislatures. seven that were up for grabs. Republicans held the taxing and certain other measures require a three- Virginia Senate 21 to 19, meaning that Democrats fifths vote in the House and could only be enacted only needed to gain one seat to regain control of with Democratic support in the previous session. the chamber if they could get it to a 20-20 tie, since Shortly after the election, Democrat Rep. Jody Democratic Lt. Gov. Ralph Northam would be Steverson announced that he was switching to the the tie-breaking vote. In the end, the numbers and GOP, getting the party closer to a supermajority at partisan control did not change. Republicans main- 73-48 with one seat not determined because it had tained the 21-19 majority despite the fact that of ended in a tie, each candidate receiving 4,589 votes. the six open seats where incumbents retired, four Incumbent Rep. Bo Eaton, a Democrat, and were GOP and only two were Democrats. Republican challenger Mark Tullos emerged from While the bulk of the attention in the Old a recount with a rarity in elections—an honest-to- Dominion was on the Senate races in Virginia, goodness tie. Mississippi law requires tied elections every seat in the House of Delegates was also up to be determined “by lot,” so the candidates drew for grabs. Republicans held a 67-33 majority in the straws. Eaton won the drawing and was declared 100-member chamber prior to Election Day and the winner. Tullos exercised his legal right to appeal that didn’t change much. Despite losing one seat, the election results to the Republican-controlled the GOP maintained its dominance in the House House of Representatives. When the House con- by a 66-34 margin. vened in January 2016, it invalidated five votes for In Mississippi, Republicans increased their Eaton and voted to seat Tullos, giving Republicans numbers in the 122-member House of Representa- a supermajority of 74-48. Republicans only gained tives even knocking off House Democratic leader, the majority four years ago in 2011 when they cap- Bobby Moak, in the process. But on Election Day, tured the Mississippi House for the first time in 130 they fell short of the 74 seats needed to gain a key years. Republicans also maintained control of the supermajority. Under Mississippi law, spending, Mississippi Senate by a 32-20 margin. 48 The Book of the States 2016 LEGISLATIVE ELECTIONS Louisiana held its “Cajun top-two primary” lenger, state Rep. John Bel Edwards, went down in October in which all candidates, Republicans, to the wire on the Nov. 21 runoff. Bel Edwards Democrats and others, run in the same primary. pulled out a surprising upset over Vitter, replacing Under this system, if a candidate receives more Republican Bobby Jindal who had held the post than 50 percent of the votes in the primary, they for the past eight years. Bel Edwards is one of three win. If no one receives more than 50 percent, the Democratic governors in the South along with top-two vote getters meet in the runoff election in West Virginia Gov. Earl Ray Tomblin and Virginia late November. Although all 39 state Senate seats Gov. Terry McAuliffe. and 105 House seats were up for election, more The GOP gained a governor’s seat in the South than 50 percent of the seats were uncontested, to offset the loss in Louisiana when Republican leaving only 70 seats for the primary—18 Senate Matt Bevin defeated Democrat Jack Conway to and 52 House. When all was said and done, Repub- replace term-limited Steve Beshear in Kentucky. licans maintained their majority in both the House The Bluegrass State remains in the split column (61-42-2) and the Senate (25-14). because Democrats hold the majority in the state In New Jersey, Democrats increased their House of Representatives. majority in the Assembly by three to control the In Mississippi, incumbent Gov. Phil Bryant eas- chamber 51-29. All Assembly districts in the Gar- ily won re-election over Democratic challenger den State are multimember where voters select Robert Gray taking over 66 percent of the vote. two candidates. Democrats took over both seats in In 2016, the partisan affiliation of the gover- the formerly split District 1 and took out two GOP nors stands at 31 Republicans and 18 Democrats. incumbents in District 11. Alaska Gov. Bill Walker is the nation’s lone inde- pendent governor. Governor Races Provided Some Excitement Only three gubernatorial elections were decided Kentucky House Stands as Last in 2015—in Kentucky, Louisiana and Mississippi. Democratic Chamber in the South The Louisiana governor’s race proved to be the The past six years have seen large Republican gains one to watch. A tight contest between Republican in state legislatures across the country, primarily U.S. Sen. David Vitter and his Democratic chal- due to a Republican takeover over of legislatures Figure B: Republican Share of Seats in the South 1938–2014 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 1938 1942 1946 1950 1954 1958 1962 1966 1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 Source: National Conference of State Legislatures.
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