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Air Defense Options for Taiwan

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Air Defense Options for Taiwan AIR DEFENSE Taiwan faces one of the most difficult air defense problems in the world. Because of that, it cannot easily look to how other nations have invested in air defenses to guide its force structure decisions. What makes Taiwan’s air AIR DEFENSE defense problem so difficult is the combination of its proximity to China and the massive investments that the People’s Republic of China has made in a range of systems that threaten Taiwan’s aircraft. China now has the capability OPTIONS FOR to destroy all of Taiwan’s aircraft at their bases. Although some aircraft might be safe in caves, Taiwan cannot use them from those shelters for sustained OPTIONS FOR combat operations. Thus, Taiwan needs to rethink how it can accomplish its air defense goals in a major conflict without heavy reliance on its fighter aircraft. Fighter aircraft are not the only element of Taiwan’s air defense; surface-to-air missiles are the other major element. Still, air defense in a major war is only one possible category of demands for Taiwan’s air defenses. A variety of TAIWAN more-limited military conflicts could draw on air defense capabilities. This report analyzes Taiwan’s options for allocating future resources for air defense capabilities. It describes the essential air defense problem posed by TAIWANAn Assessment of Relative Costs and Operational Benefits the People’s Liberation Army, characterize the current capabilities and level of funding that Taiwan invests in air defense, and then develop several alternative investment strategies. The authors then test those investment strategies in three vignettes that span the range of conflict, from quite limited coercive uses of force to a full invasion. Lostumbo NATIONAL SECURITY RESEARCH DIVISION et al. www.rand.org $29.50 ISBN-10 0-8330-8910-2 ISBN-13 978-0-8330-8910-6 52950 R Michael J. Lostumbo David R. Frelinger 9 780833 089106 C O R P O R A T I O N RR-1051-OSD James Williams Barry Wilson For more information on this publication, visit www.rand.org/t/rr1051 Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data ISBN: 978-0-8330-8910-6 Published by the RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, Calif. © Copyright 2016 RAND Corporation R® is a registered trademark. Limited Print and Electronic Distribution Rights This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law. This representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for noncommercial use only. Unauthorized posting of this publication online is prohibited. Permission is given to duplicate this document for personal use only, as long as it is unaltered and complete. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of its research documents for commercial use. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please visit www.rand.org/pubs/permissions.html. The RAND Corporation is a research organization that develops solutions to public policy challenges to help make communities throughout the world safer and more secure, healthier and more prosperous. RAND is nonprofit, nonpartisan, and committed to the public interest. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. Support RAND Make a tax-deductible charitable contribution at www.rand.org/giving/contribute www.rand.org Preface This report assesses different air defense investments that Taiwan could make and analyzes them in comparison to current People’s Liberation Army (PLA) capabilities. It begins with a description of the PLA air- power threat and how it could overwhelm Taiwan’s current defen- sive capabilities, describes a set of force structure options in a cost- constrained environment, and compares those options using several vignettes that highlight key operational differences. The analysis pro- vides a basis to inform decisions about a direction for Taiwan’s defense program to meet current air defense challenges. These involve not only new systems but also new concepts for employment. This should be of interest to those in Taiwan concerned about defense issues and to those in the United States and other countries who care about Taiwan’s secu- rity and the overall security of northeast Asia. This research was sponsored by the Office of the Under Secretary of Defense for Policy and conducted within the International Security and Defense Policy Center of the RAND National Defense Research Institute, a federally funded research and development center spon- sored by the Office of the Secretary of Defense, the Joint Staff, the -Uni fied Combatant Commands, the Navy, the Marine Corps, the defense agencies, and the defense Intelligence Community. For more information on the RAND International Security and Defense Policy Center, see http://www.rand.org/nsrd/ndri/centers/ isdp.html or contact the director (contact information is provided on the web page). iii Contents Preface ............................................................................. iii Figures .............................................................................vii Tables .............................................................................. ix Summary .......................................................................... xi Acknowledgments ............................................................. xxv Abbreviations ..................................................................xxvii CHAPTER ONE Introduction and the Threat Environment .................................. 1 The Air Threat ...................................................................... 2 Attacking Taiwan’s Integrated Air Defense Systems: The Feasibility of a Knockout Punch ...........................................................11 Organization of the Report ......................................................21 CHAPTER TWO Force Structure .................................................................. 23 Projected Cost of the Existing Force ........................................... 23 Future Force Structure Options .................................................25 CHAPTER THREE Vignettes and Analytic Results ................................................33 Vignette 1: Air Sovereignty ..................................................... 34 Vignette 2: Disarming Strikes .................................................. 48 Vignette 3: Invasion Air Defense ............................................... 56 Demands for Defenses in Sequential Vignettes .............................. 68 Concluding Thoughts on the Vignettes ........................................70 v vi Air Defense Options for Taiwan CHAPTER FOUR Implications .......................................................................73 Sizing the Surface-to-Air Missile Force .........................................74 Sizing the Fighter Force ..........................................................81 APPENDIXES A. Cost Estimation Methods .................................................91 B. Approaches to Vignette Analysis ........................................ 97 C. Other Air Defense Systems Considered .............................. 125 D. Results of Other Forces Examined in the Air Sovereignty Vignette ..................................................................... 131 References ....................................................................... 137 Figures 1.1. J-10 Fighter ............................................................ 7 1.2. J-11B Fighter ........................................................... 8 2.1. Taiwan Defense Spending, 2004–2013 .......................... 24 2.2. Taiwan Defense Allocation, 2004–2013 ..........................25 2.3. Air Defense Platoon Concept ..................................... 28 3.1. Counterblockade Concept ......................................... 36 3.2. Representative Air Combat Scenario: 2v4 ....................... 38 3.3. Fighter Attrition over Time: Low-Intensity Conflict ............39 3.4. Fighter Attrition over Time: Medium-Intensity Conflict .......41 3.5. Fighter Attrition over Time: High-Intensity Conflict .......... 42 3.6. Cost per Days Surviving Against the Current Threat .......... 43 3.7. Red Losses, by Platform, Current Threat ........................ 44 3.8. Fighter Attrition over Time Versus PL-15 Threat: Low- Intensity Conflict Against Developmental Threats ..............45 3.9. Fighter Attrition over Time Versus PL-15 Threat: Medium- Intensity Conflict Against Developmental Threats ............. 46 3.10. Fighter Attrition over Time Versus PL-15 Threat: High- Intensity Conflict Against Developmental Threats ..............47 3.11. Fighter Aircraft Survivability Against Current People’s Liberation Army Fighters .......................................... 48 3.12. Fighter Aircraft Survivability Against Developmental People’s Liberation Army Fighters .................................49 3.13. Comparing Threat and Defender Ranges ........................ 60 4.1. Geographic Coverage of 21 Air Defense Platoons and PAC-3s ............................................................... 77 4.2. Geographic Coverage of 40 Air Defense Platoons and PAC-3s ................................................................78 vii viii Air Defense Options for Taiwan 4.3. Instantaneous Air Defense Coverage of Maneuver Corridor on the Coastal Plain .................................................79 B.1. Republic of China Fighter 2v4 Survivability Against Current People’s Liberation Army Threats ...................... 104 B.2. Republic of China Air Force Fighter 2v4 Exchange Ratio Against Current People’s
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