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North-West Syria Monthly Update July 2021

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North-West Syria Monthly Update July 2021 North-West Syria Monthly Update July 2021 Covid-19 Economy Governance, Service Delivery, & Infrastructure Humanitarian Situation Military & Security Updates North-West Syria Monthly Update July 2021 1. Living Conditions - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 3 1.1 Covid-19 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 3 1.2 Humanitarian Conditions - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 5 2. Governance and Service Delivery - - - - - - - -- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 7 2.1 Alternative Energy - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 7 2.2 Electricity Supply - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 8 3. Economy - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 9 3.1 Industrial Cities in SNA Areas - - - - - - - -- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 11 4. Military and Political Update - - - - - - - -- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 12 4.1 Regime/Russian Escalation - - - - - - - -- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 13 4.2 The Continued Expansion of Turkey’s Military Presence - - - - - 16 4.3 HTS Security Campaign - - - - - - - -- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 16 4.4 Further Confrontations with the SDF - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 17 4.5 The SNA's Security Campaign - - - - - - - -- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 18 Appendix: Methodology - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 19 North-West Syria Monthly Update July 2021 This report provides an overview of the situation in north-west (NW) Syria—areas controlled by Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham [HTS] and the Syrian National Army [SNA]—over the month of July, in terms of living conditions, the economy, governance and service delivery, the political and military situations, and security. The report is based on data collected by The Operations & Policy Center (OPC) through interviews with activists, humanitarian workers, and members of local councils (LCs), in addition to a comprehensive desk review of official data, media reports, and social media. 1. Living Conditions 1.1 Covid-19 Update Despite no new variants being reported so far in NW Syria, and a decline in the number of new cases reported in July to 771 (compared with 2,120 cases reported in June), health experts and doctors in the region are warning that vaccine hesitancy is hampering efforts to immunize the population. This hesitancy is caused mainly by negative media reports on the side-effects of the AstraZeneca vaccine and the conspiracy theories circulating widely on social media regarding Covid-19 and the efficacy of any of the vaccines. A doctor working in northern Idlib has stated that in addition to opening more vaccination centres and communicating the availability of the vaccine to the public, there is a need for widespread awareness campaigns in NW Syria, to counter the damaging effects of conspiracy theories and urge people to get vaccinated in simple, straightforward language that addresses their concerns without condescending to them or dismissing their fears. The health directorates, along with other humanitarian organizations, have also warned of the ramifications of the regime/Russian military campaign on the area and the ensuing displacement from the south of Idlib towards overly crowded Internally Displaced Persons (IDP) camps in the north. Numbers show that the vaccination campaign pace has slowed, as only 5,537 people were vaccinated in July, compared with 16,783 in May and 23,742 in June. A detailed breakdown of Covid-19 cases (from the first case reported in June 2021 until 31 July 2021) and the distribution of AstraZeneca vaccinations are provided in the dashboard below. The vaccination campaign, which started on 1 May 2021, was implemented and is coordinated by World Health Organization (WHO), Turkey’s Assistance Coordination Unit (ACU), the Syria Immunisation Group, and the Health Directorates in Idlib and Aleppo. -3- North-West Syria Monthly Update July 2021 Hospital Admissions May 2021 June 2021 July 2021 For the interactive visualisation, click here -4- North-West Syria Monthly Update July 2021 1.2 Humanitarian Conditions The ongoing regime/Russian escalation, which started in early June, has caused a new wave of displacement in the Jabal Al-Zawiya area in the southern countryside of Idlib. According to the Syrian Response Coordination Group, as of 25 July more than 4,361 civilians have been displaced from Jabal al-Zawiya. 241,783 civilians remain at risk of displacement from daily attacks on residential neighbourhoods, vital infrastructure, and health, first response, and service facilities. Displacement began in early June, but was limited to families who have a place of residence in safer areas. However, as attacks intensified, larger waves were recorded from the communities of Safra, Baloun, Abadita, Ablin, and al-Bara, where the displacement rate exceeded 70% according to an activist from the area. The journeys have reportedly been brutal, especially with the increasing heat and the scarcity of drinking water centred across IDP camps, which face a water crisis. Humanitarian workers and Civil Defence responders reported great difficulties during response operations, as they were targeted several times during June and July. The daily attacks on residential areas have caused several medical facilities in the area to close due to intense bombing; in Ablin, Civil Defence first responders were forced to transfer the injured to Ariha city for treatment. The attacks have also caused the shutdown of schools and educational centres in 14 towns and villages including Fatira, Kansafra, Safra, Abadita, Ablin, Baloun, al-Wazzara, al-Bara, and some schools in Ehsem, Deir Sunbul, Sarga, and Bazabour. Despite these developments and the ongoing reporting by local and international NGOs on the humanitarian crisis in NW Syria—especially in the 1,489 formal and informal IDP camps where 151,2764 people currently live—the humanitarian response across all major sectors remains severely inadequate, according to updates published by the Syrian Response Coordination Group. Below is the rate of humanitarian response within IDP camps during the months of May, June and July 2021: -5- North-West Syria Monthly Update July 2021 Education Food Security and Livelihood Health NFI Protection Shelter WASH For the interactive visualisation, click here -6- North-West Syria Monthly Update July 2021 2. Governance and Service Delivery 2.1 Alternative Energy Unlike SNA areas, where electricity is provided through Turkey, the ongoing rise in fuel prices over the past months have caused a widespread energy crisis in HTS areas, forcing people to seek out alternatives. This has created an unexpected boom in solar power, as the sun has become the cheapest source of electricity around, especially during the summer. Reportedly, around 8% of the population in NW Syria currently rely on solar power. According to sellers, most households opt for four panels (240 watts) and two batteries, which cost around 4500 TL (about $530 USD using 14 Aug exchange rates). This setup provides enough power to run a refrigerator, water pump, or washing machine during the day, and lights and a television at night. But helpful as it is, the setup is not cheap; it is beyond the means of the vast majority in an area with 50-70% unemployment and where the average monthly income for labourers is 500 TL ($58 USD), 1600 TL ($188 USD) for employees in humanitarian organisations, and 1200 TL ($141 USD) for HTS’s Syrian Salvation Government (SSG) employees. Some farmers and workshop owners, who can no longer run their businesses due to diesel prices, are investing in larger packages of 100 to 240 400-watt solar panels costing up to 240,000 TL (about $26,200 USD). Prices of these panels vary according to capacity and the manufacturing country. Many IDPs living in the camps, despite extreme destitution, have managed to invest in at least one solar panel that produces enough energy to charge their phones and power small LED lights at night., Those with more resources opt for 3–4 panels to power internet routers and televisions. Despite the high cost of the panels, people in Idlib consider it the most viable and reasonable long-term investment they can make, even with news about electricity coming back to Idlib through Turkey. Those who cannot afford solar power or the expensive fuel offered by Watad Petroleum are opting for more traditional power alternatives, especially for cooking and heating. Cattle dung mixed with hay and water is formed into tablets and dried under the sun, to be used later to light cooking fires. -7- North-West Syria Monthly Update July 2021 2.2 Electricity Supply The newly re-established access to electricity in Idlib for the first time in six years is expected to mitigate the energy crisis in NW Syria. The agreement signed a year ago between the SSG and Green Energy company to import electricity from Turkey has already provided grid-access electricity in of Idlib’s several key cities, and partial access for other communities. Electricity has begun to reach Idlib City, Salqin, Dana, and Sarmada, with more towns and cities in northern and western Idlib to follow
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