October 2020 ISSN 1864-3973

Into the future with one foot in the past: Why so many eastern Germans feel at odds with the West thirty years after reunification

DPA-ZENTRALBILD/ KALLEJIPP/SHOTSHOP/PICTURE ALLIANCE/MONTAGE GT

IN THIS ISSUE

In 1990, the US and USSR supported German reunifi- Forging ahead cation, but for different rea- sons. Today, Brussels and A call for European leadership in times of turmoil Berlin are butting heads with Washington and Moscow, again for different to destabilize the Brussels commu- Together with 1,100 German Given the darkening horizons, lion) economic recovery program, reasons. Michael Thumann BY THEO SOMMER nity – a target shared by US Presi- soldiers, central African forces it is hardly surprising that calls they see a “Hamiltonian moment” sorts out the EU’s trouble dent Donald Trump; and Turkey and 15,000 UN Blue Helmets, for making Europe capable of – a point in history when joint with while Juliane o one looking back on with Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s neo- 5,000 French troops are battling global politics, weltpolitiktfähig in debt policy becomes the first Schäuble examines how the the past decade can do Ottoman imperialism. in Mali against Islamist terror- German, have been raised ever chapter of a federal playbook. The world could improve with Nso with satisfaction, let At the same time, the Europe- ism. The recent coup – at the more insistently. Ursula von der deal allows the EU to borrow, tax a President Joe Biden alone complacency. The world ans see a plethora of threats and hands of Malian forces trained Leyen, before assuming the presi- and spend like an actual state. Page 3-4 has become unstable. The inter- crises coming ever closer. The by the French and Germans – dency of the European Commis- It is indeed an important inno- national order created after World Syrian civil war has swept mil- sent ripples across the Sahel and sion, put it quite bluntly: “Soft vation enabling a strong eco- When the GDR went bust in War II is breaking down; the lions of refugees west. Rising beyond. power alone won’t suffice today if nomic convalescence and a more 1989, Chancellor Kohl promi- global institutions established as tensions over Ankara’s predatory In the Far East, ’s on- we Europeans want to assert our- prosperous future. It does not, sed “blossoming meadows.” part of that order are frail and inef- hunt for undersea oil and gas in slaught on the freedoms of Hong selves in the world. Europe must however, spell more unity among While much has improved, fective. The COVID-19 pandemic the Mediterranean conjure up the Kong and its saber rattling over also learn the language of power.” the 27 member states in foreign the country has not really has turned previously existing dire specter of a war between the Taiwan could, like Washington’s Macron chimed in: “We must and security policy. The much grown together, and East fault lines into frontlines. Troubles two NATO members Turkey and elevation of the People’s Repub- use the grammar of today, a touted strategic autonomy of the Germans are now asking: are piling up everywhere. In many Greece. lic to an adversarial rogue state, grammar of the language of sov- European Union remains hob- Why should we even want places, cooperation is morphing ereignty”; he wants to “revive bled by widely varying national to become like the West? into confrontation. US-China ten- Europe as a political and strategic stances on most foreign issues. Martin Machowecz, Sabine sions have become the main axis of power.” Many others agree that There is no agreement on how to Rennefanz, Wolfgang Engler global politics; the rivalry between Europe can no longer bank only in a united Europe can our deal with Russia, China, Turkey, and Stephan Kaufmann ex- the two great powers will domi- several nations be strong. Africa or even the US. And the plore the eastern mindset nate the near future, regardless on the United States to Learning the language of principle of unanimity regularly Pages 11 - 13 who is in the White House next power, von der Leyen explained, prevents joint action. January. provide global guidance “for one thing means building As long as the unanimity rule There is still more to lay The European Union will have up our muscles, where hitherto prevails and any small state can bare about the somewhat to adjust to the shifting geopo- and military protection we were able to rely on others, veto collective action, Europe awkward German habit of litical dispensation. No longer for example in security policy. will not be taken seriously in stripping down in public; can it bank on the United States Furthermore, it means using the global politics. To be respected, read Irish-born Killian to provide global guidance and Another flash point touching set off an explosion in the South existing power more purpose- it must speak with one voice – as Lannister's “exposé” in our military protection. And it has to Europe’s interest is Libya, riven China Sea – a waterway of utmost fully where European interests it does in trade politics. series on Zee Germans recognize that China, its primary by internal conflict, in which the importance to EU commerce. are concerned.” Josep Borrell, the EU High Page 14 economic partner, has grown into UN-recognized government in Nearer to home, the fraudulent What has become of all these Representative for Foreign an assertive, some would say, Tripoli is supported by Turkey, elections in Belarus triggered striking statements? Regretta- Affairs and Security Policy, Our special section The aggressive challenger aspiring to while Russian mercenaries assist a popular uprising against the bly, they have not moved beyond is not alone in calling for the Berlin Times features the world leadership. General Khalifa Haftar’s regime callous tyranny of Alexander mere sound bites. abandonment of the unanimity decades-long drama of Several states are testing in the east. French President Lukashenko. Its violent suppres- Optimists speak of Europe’s principle and the introduction the capital city’s attempt Europe’s unity: China with Xi Emmanuel Macron is trying to sion by OMON police and the geopolitical awakening in the of qualified majority voting. “It to build an airport. Hannes Jinping’s Silk Road Initiative and protect Total’s oil interest in the possibility that Russian troops course of the COVID-19 pan- would be better,” he argues, “to Koch gives an overview from the “17+1” cooperation scheme in desert country. He is also push- might join the crackdown con- demic. Europe is stirring, they adopt a strong and substantial 30,000 feet while Lorenz Eastern Europe and the Balkans; ing the Lebanese toward mean- fronted the EU with another say, recalling Jean Monet’s dictum: position by a majority rather Maroldt lands a few zingers. Russia with ’s ingful reforms of their collapsed sticky problem, this one at its “Europe will be forged in crises.” Page 23 assault on and his attempt political system. very border. In the EU’s €750 billion ($885 bil- continued on page 3

the best option for Putin,” argues At the same time, however, BY GEMMA PÖRZGEN the Belarusian political scien- Putin also announced in late Éminence grise tist Yauheni Preiherman from August that he had organized fter the disputed presi- the Minsk Dialogue Council on a standby security force that dential election in Putin has not yet chosen a course vis-à-vis Belarus, International Relations. He is could intervene in Belarus if the ABelarus on Aug. 9, Vladi- but all signs point to his continued support for Lukashenko convinced that “Putin is the king- situation got out of control. Most mir Putin was one of the first to maker of the Belarusian political experts nevertheless consider congratulate Alexander Lukash- crisis.” military intervention by Moscow enko on his landslide win. Yet the Duma Foreign Affairs Commit- entire country. Results included And yet Lukashenko remains in Russia’s president appears to be to be highly unlikely. For the Russian president was cautious tee, called it a lost election rather strikes at large state-operated place as head of state in Belarus. keeping all of his options open. Kremlin, such a move would at first, pursuing more of a wait- than a victory. Coverage of the companies and a genuinely pop- He seems to be waiting out the While Lukashenko refuses to take involve an incalculable risk of and-see approach as to which protests in Belarus was surpris- ular people’s movement against protests while wearing them any phone calls from European triggering a wave of anti-Russian position the Kremlin should take. ingly fair and was even debated Lukashenko. down through violent actions by politicians such as German Chan- resentment in Belarus. An inva- “Putin congratulated Lukash- in Russian state media. This clearly made an impres- the police. It seems that he can cellor Angela Merkel and French sion would not be welcome. enko on his victory, but the Leaders in Moscow were most sion in Moscow, too, especially continue to count on the support President Emmanuel Macron, The foreign policy damage tone of his remarks was cool certainly surprised that the anti- since the protests involved no of his security forces. His central- Putin has picked up the phone would also be significant and and formal,” noted the Moscow- Lukashenko protests continued anti-Russian sentiments, in con- ized power apparatus is showing and signaled his readiness for dia- further isolate the Russian lead- based sociologist Lev Gudkov. peacefully for weeks rather than trast to the situation in Ukraine no tangible cracks, and only a few logue. Among the solutions being ership on the international stage. Even Vladimir Zhirinovsky, coming to a quick conclusion. during the Maidan Uprising of high-ranking functionaries have considered are talks within the Furthermore, an invasion of chair of the right-wing national- Even as the nation’s security 2014. Indeed, the Belarus oppo- withdrawn their allegiance. framework of the Organization Belarus wouldn’t earn Putin any ist Liberal Democratic Party of forces used violence in a ruthless sition took great pains to ensure Moscow is keeping a close for Security and Co-operation in points among his own people. Russia, spoke of “election fraud,” attempt to quell the protests, the that the protest did not assume eye on the situation. “Having Europe (OSCE) and a constitu- and Aleksey Pushkov, chair of the demonstrations spread across the an anti-Russian character. Lukashenko remain in power is tional process in Belarus. continued on page 2 2 The German Times • Politics October 2020

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In contrast to the annexa- tion of Crimea in 2014 – a move that was supported by a majority of people in Russia – surveys conducted by the Backroom bravado Moscow-based Levada Center showed that only 13 percent of respondents were in favor of As both big-tent German parties gear up for the post-Merkel era, incorporating Belarus. “Most the candidate carousel is in full swing of the people surveyed think the relationship with Belarus should stay the way it is.” Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer quent foreign policy expert, more to take vocal credit for all he had However, a little more than The threat of a Russian BY LUTZ LICHTENBERGER was the early front runner. The respected than admired, have all done. Söder quickly became the half a year later, on Aug. 10, the invasion is presumably being 58-year-old had been serving as thrown their hats into the ring. Andrew Cuomo to Laschet’s Ron party empire struck back. The used more as a diversionary er era will have to come minister president of the small On March 1, Laschet would have DeSantis, the governors of New SPD’s all-powerful steering com- tactic in Moscow’s effort to to an end eventually. southwestern state of Saar- been a better’s best choice; he had York and Florida whose pandemic mittee, having already nixed a stabilize Lukashenko in less HAngela Merkel has been land until Merkel tapped her to government experience, enjoyed policies were a study in contrast. premature end to the coalition, obvious ways and thereby German chancellor since 2005; become the CDU’s general secre- broad appeal with his folksy and It did not take long for specu- was especially dissatisfied with further increase his depen- you would have to look long and tary, an influential post often dou- joyful demeanor and was the right lations to surface in Berlin as to Esken’s unorthodox and loose dence on the Kremlin. If suc- hard to find another politician bling as stepping-stone to higher man to cross every aisle. whether Söder was priming for a style, and in a truly topsy-turvy cessful, this approach would holding a country’s top political office. When Merkel resigned But over the summer, his erratic joint nomination by the CDU and move nominated Scholz, the loser make the existing union position for so long, autocracies from her party post one year and wavering handling of the pan- the CSU for the chancellorship in of the primary, to stand as the between Belarus and Russia and banana republics excluded. later, AKK, as she is often called, demic – seen as too lenient, too 2021. candidate for chancellor next fall. much stronger – a relation- But Merkel has unequivocally narrowly won the intra-party eager to “reopen” – shone a different Laschet could eke out a win in the Esken and Walter-Borjans had to ship that has so far been more stated she will not run for office contest, besting two candidates light on the leader. Fairly or not, he race for the leadership of the Chris- publicly approve what has to be of an administrative agree- again in fall 2021, one year from who explicitly wanted to change is now considered rather unsteady, tian Democrats against Merz and considered an all-out repudiation ment than an actual union now, in the Bundestag elections. Merkel’s course, both symboli- indecisive and a bit of a panderer to Röttgen – with their once-promis- of their political viability. of states. In the past several Her announcement in late 2018 cally and in terms of policy. the COVID-19-denying crowd. ing runs now mere afterthoughts Current polling suggests years, Lukashenko has pur- and her subsequent resignation – and still not get the nomination at that the Social Democrats will sued a seesaw policy of resist- as chair of her party, the center- the party’s convention in Decem- receive 16 percent of the vote. ing Moscow’s insistence on right Christian Democratic Union ber. Söder still has to declare his Scholz would have to beat out closer ties between the two (CDU), during a time when her The biggest question in candidacy. Most likely he will delay the Greens, currently polling one states while intermittently approval ratings were on a precip- his declaration for as long as pos- to two points ahead, for second offering his services to the EU. itous downturn, did not make her German political circles is who sible while gauging his chances. As place and then hope to form a But now that Lukashenko has a proverbial lame duck; it brought is befitting the era of the pandemic coalition with them and the Left been discredited as an election her a confined yet unequivocal will be tapped by Merkel's we are living through, all bets are Party. It is a narrow path to vic- fraudster, the only thing he new lease on power. In fact, it off concerning the future. tory. has left to secure his political gave Merkel room to operate free party to be its candidate for The Social Democrats (SPD), The CDU and CSU, currently at survival is his close relation- of the common ills that often face the coalition partner of the CDU/ 37 percent, will most likely court ship to Russia. democratic politicians with an chancellor CSU, has had its own turbulent the Greens to form an unprec- In this regard, Russian Prime overly cautious eye on reelection. leadership rumblings. edented partnership. Minister Mikhail Mishustin’s She no longer has to try to please After its first female party chair, The eco-friendly Greens have visit to Minsk on Sept. 3 was every constituency. A physicist by AKK won by adhering to Enter Markus Söder. The min- Andrea Nahles, resigned in anger moved closer to the center, posi- instructive. The official reason training, Merkel’s rather uncharis- Merkel’s legacy while carefully ister president of Bavaria, Ger- over intra-party bickering in June tioning the party as the sensible for the visit was to discuss matic, somber, almost scientific staking out her own political ter- many’s second-biggest state, and 2019, the SPD held its first-ever choice for traditional bleeding- the billions of rubles of debt style of governing, allowing her ritory. And yet, due to sinking head of the CDU’s sister-party, election for the party’s top post in heart liberals and the affluent owed to Russia by Belarus to dissect a problem with surgical approval ratings, rhetorical mis- the Christian Social Union, has which all party members, not just cosmopolitan latte-drinking pro- and to conclude an agreement accuracy, has served her best. Big steps and regional electoral losses, long been defined as the opposite several hundred delegates, were gressives. The leadership duo of about energy supplies. In the ideas, sweeping visions and grand a frustrated Kramp-Karrenbauer of Laschet: too ambitious, calcu- eligible; it was more akin to a US- Annalena Baerbock and Robert context of Mishustin’ visit, oratory are not her cup of tea. stepped down in February just lating, combative. style primary. Habeck project just enough sur- Lukashenko shuffled around a Merkel’s largely deft handling of before the pandemic claimed all In early 2018, Söder, for all intents Candidates were encouraged to face charisma to brush over the number of high-level security the COVID-19 pandemic – both headlines and attention. and purposes, succeeded in forc- run on two-person tickets each unresolved policy conflicts that officials. the death rate and the economic The party’s poll numbers imme- ing out his predecessor, Horst See- comprising a woman and a man. come with being open for both Ivan Tertel was named the downturn have been limited com- diately went back up due to the hofer. It was the culmination of a In a surprise outcome in the final a center-right and a center-left new head of the Belarusian pared to other states in the Euro- German version of the “rally years-long bare-knuckles intramu- round, Saskia Esken and Norbert coalition. The Greens are in an secret service (KGB), replac- pean Union and overseas – has 'round the flag” effect that typi- ral struggle that eventually got him Walter-Borjans defeated Klara enviable position, as both the ing Valery Vakulchik. London- boosted her party’s poll numbers cally rewards the party in power his self-proclaimed dream post. Geywitz and Olaf Scholz. Scholz, Union and the SPD desperately based political scientist Mark Galeotti sees Vakulchik’s repeated resistance to inter-

ference by Moscow as the PICTURE ALLIANCE reason for his ousting. Gale- otti also argues that the switch at the top spot of the secret service was carried out under pressure from Moscow, noting that Tertel likely has a better relationship to the Russian secret service (FSB). These moves are an indica- tion that the Kremlin is com- mitted to strengthening coop- eration on different levels. On one level, Moscow supports Lukashenko’s power appara- tus by deploying Russian “con- sultants” at various key con- tact points. The impact of this tactic is already felt in Belaru- sian media; after a number of journalists and technicians were fired, Russian colleagues took over their duties. In the meantime, these “Russian aides” have no doubt been installed in many other fields. Most recently, after hosting Lukashenko for talks at his residence in Sochi on Sept. 14, Putin made an announce- ment pledging a loan of $1.5 billion to Belarus in response to Lukashenko’s plea that “a friend is in trouble, and I say that sincerely.” Whether Rus- sian aid remains purely mon- Close pre-Corona, rivals now: Armin Laschet (left) and Markus Söder etary is an open question. The situation in Belarus can to as high as 40 percent, a level in a time of crisis – that is, when Half a year later, Söder narrowly minister of finance and vice chan- want to end the grand coalition change on a daily basis and the not seen since 2013, when she the party is actually reacting to won reelection in Bavaria, not an cellor in Merkel’s cabinet, is seen that has governed Germany for country’s future is difficult to won reelection in a landslide. said crisis in an adequate and outright rebuke of his claim to as being uncharismatic yet expe- 13 of the past 17 years. And after predict. If the peaceful pro- The biggest question in political competent manner. power, but a warning shot. Söder rienced, competent and reliable – nearly joining the government in tests were to suddenly turn circles these days is who will be Even more than in previous years, changed several of his right-lean- the quintessential establishment 2013 and 2017, they won’t pass up violent, a change in Moscow’s tapped by her party to be its can- the race for the party chairmanship ing stances, got on better terms candidate. the chance this time. cautious policy is quite possi- didate for chancellor – and to have is being considered a preliminary with Merkel, with whom he had Esken, on the other hand, was a And yet, the establishment ble. People in Minsk are highly a very good chance of becoming selection of the next chancellor. often clashed, took on environ- left-leaning, largely unknown back- forces in both big-tent parties concerned that paid provoca- Merkel’s successor in office. While it is common that the party mental and social issues, and bencher in the Bundestag. She had know they must steel themselves teurs might actually instigate The CDU has already begun chair secures his or her nomination refrained from dressing up in a chosen as her running mate the for the possibility that a continu- such a turn of events in the its version of what the US calls for the general election, there is no colorful comic costume for Car- 70-year old Walter-Borjans, who ation of their grand coalition may near future. the “invisible primary,” whereby automatic mechanism guaranteeing nival, an old habit he now consid- only barely had a bigger national prove the best move forward at candidates sort out their chances it – as recent events have shown. ered unbecoming for a statesman profile. Their headline-grabbling this time next year. Merkel’s pat- in backrooms (that is, when Armin Laschet, minister presi- of his bearings. selling point was the stated goal of ented moderating style just might Gemma Pörzgen it was still permitted to meet dent of Germany’s most populous When the virus struck in March, ending the grand coalition with the come in handy for her successor. is a Berlin-based journalist face-to-face in enclosed spaces), state, North Rhine-Westphalia, Söder pushed ahead in his new- Christian Democrats. The mood specializing in Eastern garner support among important Friedrich Merz, a long-time aspi- found role. Restrictions were in the party had become more left- Europe. She is also editor- regional party officials, position rant for the chancellery who’s harsher in Bavaria; Söder was ish in late 2019, and Esken’s and in-chief of the magazine Ost-West. Europäische themselves with sensible policy been biding his time and harbor- often the first to implement them, Walter-Borjan’s often young sup- Lutz Lichtenberger Perspektiven (East-West. proposals and present themselves ing his grudges since being out- thereby forcing his colleagues’ porters were considerably more is senior editor at European Perspectives). as either Merkel loyalists or pur- maneuvered by Merkel 20 years hand in other states to follow adept at turning out the vote, thus The German Times. veyors of new ideas. ago, and Norbert Röttgen, the elo- his lead – and never forgetting securing their victory.