Fidel's Fade-Out

LAMN_ 11-13-2009_ A_ 31_ A31_ LA_ 1_K TSet: 11-12-2009 19:40 LATIMES.COM/OPINION FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 13, 2009 A31 OP-ED Making Fidel’s fade-out reform Ann Louise Bardach stick n July 27, 2006, Fidel Castro nearly died during emergency intestinal surgery to stem internal bleeding RONALD BROWNSTEIN O caused by chronic diverticulitis. he stakes in the elections Since then, Cuba-watchers and of 2010 and 2012 have just obituary writers have been on high alert await- increased exponentially. ing his demise. T Although many obsta- Yet, more than three years later, Castro sol- cles remain, the House’s narrow approval of healthcare reform diers on, approaching his mortal end with the last weekend bettered the odds that same zeal he lavished on his life. The 83-year-old President Obama will sign legislation appears to have adjusted to his medically man- vastly expanding the number of in- dated retirement, enduring various surgeries sured Americans. But the near-unan- and their attendant complications. A state-of- imous opposition of House Repub- the art convalescent suite has been installed in licans to the bill signaled that the his principal residence, Punto Cero, where he is GOP may resist and challenge the initiative for years. That means, if the surrounded by family and Cuba’s finest doctors. overhaul becomes law, the coming On his good days, he entertains well-wishers — elections could determine whether among them, Harry Belafonte and Oliver Stone. nearly universal healthcare joins And he continues to intervene in the thorny Social Security and Medicare as a politics of Cuba. central branch of the American social In 2007, while still hospitalized, Castro began welfare system — or whether Repub- licans acquire the leverage to repeal a transition from being Cuba’s commander in or severely prune the new program chief to its pundit in chief, penning columns he before it takes root. calls “Reflections” in the state-run newspaper, Since Saturday’s vote, much atten- Granma. Late last year, he offered some person- tion has focused on the formidable al introspection. “I have had the rare privilege of hurdles still confronting the reform observing events for a very long time,” he wrote. bill in the Senate and on the House blueprint’s imperfections, particu- He then acknowledged the gravity of his illness. larly its lack of key cost-containment “I do not expect I shall enjoy such a privilege measures. But that focus has ob- four years from now — when President Obama’s scured the historic significance of the first term has concluded.’’ House’s 220-215 vote approving the But until Castro is in the grave, we will be plan. Franklin Roosevelt, Harry Tru- hearing from him. While his brother Raul and man, Richard Nixon and Bill Clinton the Cuban army are running the day-to-day af- all pursued universal coverage, but none could advance such a bill as far fairs of the country, Castro retains and exercises as a floor vote in either chamber. veto power. And Cubans continue to feel the “There is still a long way to go, but strongman’s sting. the House vote really was an his- In March, more than a dozen of the most sen- torical marker,” said political scientist ior members of the Cuban regime were purged James Morone of Brown University, from the government. While Raul Castro had the coauthor of “The Heart of Power,” a new book analyzing how presidents initiated the internal coup, Fidel was quick to since FDR have handled healthcare. weigh in and assail its casualties, all former “We have had brilliant, successful, members of his inner circle. The men had suc- Paul Tong TMS charismatic leadership at various cumbed to “the honey of power,” he wrote in his times. ... And no one has gotten as far column. Their replacements have dodged the as this Congress and this president.” limelight and tread far more carefully. kind of changes the Cuban people will hope for. If Obama does sign a reform bill, which appears more likely than not, Castro’s reluctant leave-taking — with its pe- I’m gonna guess: term limits.” Castro’s reluctant leave- Republicans will face a momentous riodic near-finales — fits into a long tradition of Castro’s untidy leaving has also kept the choice between consolidation and Hispanic caudillos or dictators. Consider, for taking fits into a long news media in an indefinite state of high alert, repudiation — between accepting the example, the life — and death — of Francisco as they formulate and reformulate coverage and new program or seeking to dismantle Franco, Spain’s dictator of almost 40 years. tradition of caudillos. obituaries. The veteran Spanish Civil War re- it. Both Castro’s father and Franco hailed from the porter Martha Gellhorn found herself in a simi- The alternative paths are neatly rugged northern countryside of Spain, a region lar pickle three decades ago. In 1975, she ac- captured by the GOP’s contrasting reactions to the two central cords of renowned for its fierce and stubborn citizenry. died days earlier, his death was announced on cepted an assignment from New York magazine America’s existing social safety net. And notwithstanding divergent political ideol- Nov. 20, 1975, the same day on which Jose Anto- to write about post-Franco Spain. “This thrills After FDR got Social Security ap- ogies — Franco was a zealous anti-communist nio Primo de Rivera, the founder of Franco’s fas- me, the sort of journalism I love,” she wrote her proved in 1935, Alf Landon, his Re- — the two men had a good deal in common. cist Falange party, died 40 years earlier. son. “I am waiting for the old swine to die; but publican challenger in 1936, de- Both were willing to forge unpalatable and un- Some assert doctors kept Franco alive under obviously he is being kept breathing (no more) nounced it as “unjust ... stupidly popular alliances with totalitarian states to orders from the dictator that he would live until while the right tightens its hold on the country.” drafted [and] ... folly.” Roosevelt’s landslide victory over Landon (and shore up their power — Franco with Nazi Ger- the ordained date. But Franco’s scheming to die When I asked Castro in a 1994 interview when subsequent reelections) provided many and Castro with the Soviet Union. with gravity and splendor backfired, and his he would retire, he snapped: “My vocation is the Social Security the time to build And Franco’s shrouded last days neatly fore- protracted departure became a joke that would revolution. I am a revolutionary, and revolution- impregnable support. But many shadowed Castro’s. Franco became grievously long outlive him. “Generalissimo Francisco aries do not retire.” congressional Republicans kept ill in 1974 and was forced to turn over his rule — Franco is still dead,” Chevy Chase would intone fighting the program until President “temporarily,” he insisted — to Prince Juan Car- with mock solemnity on “Saturday Night Live” Ann Louise Bardach is the author of “Without Eisenhower, a Republican, declared a truce after his election in 1952. los. Castro also initially ceded control to his as a running gag for nearly two years. Fidel: A Death Foretold in Miami, Havana, and By contrast, Republicans largely brother only “temporarily.” Like Castro, Franco Castro’s long goodbye is proving equally irre- Washington” and “Cuba Confidential: Love and accepted Medicare soon after Presi- had an unexpected recovery, though his lasted sistible for late-night comedians. “He ran Cuba Vengeance in Miami and Havana” and serves dent Lyndon Johnson signed it into only a year before he died at the age of 82. for almost 50 years,” began Jay Leno in one riff. on the Brookings Institution’s Cuba Study law in 1965. Although conservative Although it is generally believed that Franco “And political analysts are now debating what Project. Republicans such as Barry Goldwater and Ronald Reagan had fiercely condemned the program before its creation, Nixon during the 1968 cam- paign spared Medicare from his criti- cism of the Great Society’s cost. Once elected, he became a strong support- er of it and effectively ended chal- Doomsday? Not to the Maya lenges to its existence, Morone notes. Which path might Republicans follow if Obama signs universal Mary Jo McConahay calendar, which began Aug. 11, 3114 marry or travel, or to bless efforts. stroying” the Earth with pollution healthcare? Several factors point writing from guatemala city BC, ends on Dec. 21, 2012. The signing of the 1996 peace ac- and by cutting down forests. toward confrontation. The GOP During Guatemala’s 36-year civil cords was preceded by a Maya cere- “Conditions could be severe,” she accepted Medicare so quiescently he world may not end war, which ended in 1996, the Maya mony at the ancient site of Kaminal- said. “It depends on our answer. The partly because the program began two years from now, de- were suspected of supporting insur- juyu in Guatemala City and public universe responds according to the dispensing benefits just one year after spite Internet predictions gents, and they were “disappeared” prayers at the National Palace. treatment it is given.” passage and rapidly became too T and this week’s block- by the thousands. Their religion, For these purposes, Maya priests Another ajq’ij, Gregorio Chayax, popular to assail. Social Security, buster disaster movie, which had survived the Spanish con- use a 260-day calendar called the 70, wears a baseball cap, T-shirt and though, was phased in over many “2012.” On screen, the final day in the quest with influences from Catholi- Short Count. The Long Count tracks pants rolled above rubber sandals.

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