Food Security and Nutrition Quarterly Brief May 2020
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FSNAU Food Security Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit - Somalia & Nutrition IssuedIssued AprilMay 9,xx, 2020 2020 Quarterly BriefQuarterly with aBrief Focus - Focus on the on 2020 Gu Jiaal 2020 Impact Season and Early Gu WarningSeason Early Warning • As a result of the good Deyr and Karan 19 rains, followed by the light to KEY ISSUESKEY moderate rains received in late February and March 2020, the impact of the Dry • The 2020 Jilaal (January-March)Jilaal dry(January season – was March mild 20)in terms season of continuedwas mild availabilityin most of pasture the country. and water Pasture for live and- stockISSUES in most parts of the country due to average to above-average 2019 Deyr (October-December) season rainfall. There were also localized lightbrowse to moderate, slightly declinedoff-season during rains inthe many Jilaal, parts but of remained Somalia during much Februarybetter than and the March, usual whichJilaal has intensifiedseason. further since the onset of the 2020 Gu (April-June) in mid-April covering most parts of the country (Maps 2 and 3). • Moderate• Dry to pasture/browse heavy precipitations was available in the upper in most catchment of the of pastoral the Juba and and agro Shebelle pastoral rivers livelihoods in the eastern of the Ethiopian country. highlandsAvailable and intensified pasture and rainfall water withineasily Somaliasustained since the wellbeingmid-April ofhave the caused pastoral riverine and agro flooding pastoral in livelihoods Bardhere of Climate Gedo regionin the andnorthern, some parts central of Middle and southern and Lower regions. Juba. FlashIn addition, floods cropwere reportedfodder wasin Qardho widely town available in Bari inregion. both Accordingagro-pastoral to OCHA ,and as of riverine 5 May, areasover 200,000 in the southern people have and beennorthwest affected regions by flooding, and this of contributed whom 70,000 to lesshave J ilaalbeen displaced and 16 killed, in 19 districts across Somalia. Heavy rains caused flash floods in northern regions and riv- impact on the livestock. Civil erine flooding along the Juba River in the south. Continue availability of pasture and water across most parts of the country have improved conditions for livestock production and reproduction. Insecurity • Cereal availability has improved in most markets of southern regions as a result of increased supplies • While damages thus far remain moderate and localized, according to the latest information from FAO, Desert Locust continuesfrom to Deyrpose a2019/20 risk to current and off-season Gu season harvests. crop production Nevertheless, and it may the also cereal threaten prices pasture have shownavailability mixed and trends crop Livestock cultivationin crop-producing across Somalia throughregions theof followingsouthern 2020Somalia. Deyr Maize(October-December) prices mostly season. increased in the major cereal • producing regions, while most of the sorghum prices declined in the first quarter of 2020, however, Despite favorable rainfall conditions, current Gu season production is expected to be 15 to 25 percent lower than Agriculture averagecereal due to prices the likely are cumulativeexpected to impact increase of flooding as the prices and Dese importedrt Locust. stable food increase due to COVID-19 restriction • Data from obtained from the Somalia Nutrition Cluster indicates a 13 percent increase in monthly new admissions Markets of acutely malnourished children between January and March 2020 compared to the first-quarter average monthly admission• Accordingly, for 2016-2019. food Thissecurity can beoutcomes attributed in to Guban sporadic Pastoral disease of outbreaks Awdal and (acute Hawd watery Pastoral diarrhea-AWD/cholera of Gal-gadud and Nutrition and measlesEast Golis outbreak), Pastoral and worseningof Sanaag of have the fooddeteriorated security situationfrom Stressed in many (IPC areas. Phase 2) to Crisis (IPC Phase 3) Addun of Gal-gadud remains in Crisis ( IPC 3) while other livelihoods in the north remain Stressed ( • Data obtained from UNHCR indicates that an estimated 126,000 people were displaced between Jan and March 2020, mainlyIPC because 2). Mostof insecurity of the (76%),southern mostly regions affecting remain Lower Minimal Shabelle, (IPC Bay, 1) Galgaduud and stressed and (IPC Gedo 2) regions. due to Other 2019 major Deyr Integrated reasonsrains for population and relatively displacement better livestock include lack holding of livelihood and crop opportunities performance. (17%) and drought (4%). Analysis • Somalia’s population is currently experiencing multiple shocks: Desert Locust upsurge that started in late 2019 and continues• 1.3 to million threaten People the food will security face Crisis and livelihoods or worse of(IPC pastoralists Phase 3 andor higher) farmers outcomesin many parts between of the Aprilcountry; to Juneriv- erine and2020, flash including floods anduring additional the current 2.8 millionGu (April-June) people seasonexpected that toaffect be Stressedthe food security,(IPC Phase livelihoods 2), bringing and safety the of farmerstotal and number people of living people in facing flood-prone, acute food populated insecurity areas; to the 4.1 novel million. coronavirus The April (COVID-19) to June 2020 pandemic food security that is having severe health and socio-economic impacts both in Somalia and globally; and the extended impact of previous shockssituation (flooding, could drought, get worsedisplacement, than indicated etc.) on livelihoods. above if the forthcoming Gu rains perform poorly or cause significant flooding or ongoing Desert Locust outbreak causes significant damage to pasture and crop • From Januarycultivation. to March 2020, the provision of food assistance in Somalia declined. However, the level of food assistance has increased in April 2020. The average beneficiaries reached monthly from January to March was 0.9 million, compared to 1.6 million reached in April. • Considering the high risk of locust on food insecurity in the projection period, From February to May, • Somaliathe confirmed population its infirst Crisis case (IPC of the Phase novel 3) coronavirus or Emergency (COVID-19) (IPC Phase on 16 4), March.is expected As of 8to riseMay by2020, 30 according percent to Somalia’s Ministry of Health and Human Services, Somalia has a total of 928 cases and 44 deaths. to 1.5 million people with additional 0f 2.9 million people of (IPC 2) stressed (MLS1). Similarly from FSNAU - Somalia • Some ofJune the – measures September taken 2020, by the Governmentpeople in IPC3 of Somalia and higher and expectedSomalia’s to trading increase partners by 40 to percent curb the 1.6 spread million, of United Nations Somalia, COVID-19while are the beginning population to havein IPC economic 2 remain impacts. the same As the2.9 spread million. of COVID-19 continues and measures aimed at Ngecha Road Campus containing its spread remain in force, this is likely to have further negative impact on the overall economy and food Box 30470,00100 security outcomes in Somalia. Movement, trade and travel restrictions within Somalia and with Somalia’s neigh- • Food insecurity situation for both urban and pastoralist community is in high risk in the coming Nairobi, Kenya bors and trading partners and in countries with large Somali diaspora populations are expected to remain in effect up Tel: +254-20-4000500 to Juneweeks/ 2020. Disruptionsmonths due to to economic the impact activity of current will be COVID-19 severe. The pandemic assumptions where informing signs theof economic most likely disruption scenario for food security outcomes from April through September 2020 include: Cell: +254-722-202146 / are emerging. The growing anxiety created resource competition that already started in the most of the o A 30 to 50 percent decline in livestock exports is expected during the peak export period between April and early 733-616881 Augustmain 2020 markets (the lead with up limited to and duringsupply Ramadan for both andimported Hajj festivi and ties)local food items to match the demand. Food Fax: +254-20-4000555 o A 30prices to 50 percentare expected decline tois expectedinflate particularlyin external remittance staple cereals, flows intowith Somaliarelative deflation of local currency in Email: [email protected] o Importedparts foodof north prices and are central anticipated regions to increase and limited by 20 income to 30 pe optionsrcent and population In IPC 3 or higher likely Website: www.fsnau.org o Income among poor urban households and IDPS is expected to decline by 20 to 30 percent, due to declines in casualincrease labor income, between petty April trade, – September and remittances 2020. SomaliaSomalia Seasonal Seasonal Timeline Timeline & & Key Key Events Events Gu Rains Hagaa Dry Season Deyr Rains Jilaal Dry Season Jilaal Dry Season Hagaa Dry Season Deyr Rains Apr May Jul Aug SeptGu Rains Oct Nov Mar Apr Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 2019 2019 Due to the delayed and late Mild to moderate Hagaa in the north and The 2019 Deyr rains started The impact of the 2020 dry Jilal (January-March) parts of South, but harsh in parts of south season was moderated by the continued availability startDue of tothe a Gu mostly 2019 below season; average early and rainfall was average Due to delayed and late 2018 Gu season cereal harvest Theof water 2019 and Deyr dry season pasture starteddue to the favorable 2019 droughtrainfall condition during the persist preceding and central. However, cereal harvest was to above average in most