Detailed Tables

Ontario Provincial Election 2007 Detailed Tables

ONTARIO VOTING INTENTIONS DECIDED VOTER (Leaners Included) ______Proportions/Means: Columns Tested (5% risk level) - A/B/C/D/E * small base; ** very small base (under 30) ineligible for sig testing ONTARIO DECIDED VOTERS TOTAL PC LIB NDP GP Other A B C D E

Base: Ontario Decided Voters - Leaners Included Unweighted Base 718 227 286 113 90 2 Weighted Base 718 239 309 125 43* 2**

The Ontario Progressive Conservatives 239 239 0 0 0 0 (PC), led by John Tory 33% 100% - - - - BCD The Ontario Liberals, led by Dalton 309 0 309 0 0 0 McGuinty 43% - 100% - - - ACD The Ontario New Democratic Party (NDP), 125 0 0 125 0 0 LED BY Howard Hampton 17% - - 100% - - ABD The Ontario Green Party, led by Frank de 43 0 0 0 43 0 Jong 6% - - - 100% - ABC Other 2 0 0 0 0 2 0 - - - - 100%

Ipsos-Reid Public Affairs September 25-27, 2007 1

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Filename: ONTVOTE3-F.DOC Ontario Provincial Election 2007 Detailed Tables

MCGUINTY RE-ELECTION 1. Some people say that the Liberal government under Premier Dalton McGuinty has done a good job and deserves to be re-elected during the Provincial election this upcoming October. Other people say that it is time for another provincial political party to take over and run the province. Which statement is closest to your point of view? ______Proportions/Means: Columns Tested (5% risk level) - A/B/C/D/E * small base; ** very small base (under 30) ineligible for sig testing ONTARIO DECIDED VOTERS TOTAL PC LIB NDP GP Other A B C D E

Base: Ontario respondents Unweighted Base 802 227 286 113 90 2 Weighted Base 802 239 309 125 43* 2**

Mcguinty government has done a good job 324 15 268 19 8 2 and deserves re-election 40% 6% 87% 15% 19% 100% ACD A A Time for another provincial political party to 415 221 27 101 34 0 take over 52% 92% 9% 81% 80% - BCD B B Don't know/Refused 63 3 14 5 1 0 8% 1% 4% 4% 1% -

Ipsos-Reid Public Affairs September 25-27, 2007 2

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Filename: ONTVOTE3-F.DOC Ontario Provincial Election 2007 Detailed Tables

FAITH BASED FUNDING 1. Overall, do you support or oppose Ontario Government extending full funding to these faith-based schools and others of a similar nature? ______Proportions/Means: Columns Tested (5% risk level) - A/B/C/D/E * small base; ** very small base (under 30) ineligible for sig testing ONTARIO DECIDED VOTERS TOTAL PC LIB NDP GP Other A B C D E

Base: Ontario respondents Unweighted Base 802 227 286 113 90 2 Weighted Base 802 239 309 125 43* 2**

Strongly support 102 51 25 12 4 1 13% 21% 8% 9% 9% 53% BCD Somewhat support 140 61 28 25 6 0 17% 26% 9% 20% 14% - BD B Somewhat oppose 133 40 59 19 6 0 17% 17% 19% 15% 14% -

Strongly oppose 410 86 196 68 27 1 51% 36% 63% 54% 63% 47% A A A Neither 10 1 1 1 0 0 1% 0 0 1% 1% -

Don't know/Refused 7 0 1 0 0 0 1% - 0 - - -

TOPBOX & LOWBOX SUMMARY

Support (Top2Box) 242 112 53 37 10 1 30% 47% 17% 29% 23% 53% BCD B Neither (MidBox) 10 1 1 1 0 0 1% 0 0 1% 1% -

Oppose (Low2Box) 544 126 254 87 33 1 68% 53% 82% 70% 76% 47% AC A A

Ipsos-Reid Public Affairs September 25-27, 2007 3

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Filename: ONTVOTE3-F.DOC Ontario Provincial Election 2007 Detailed Tables

FAITH BASED FUNDING 2. Now, there are three options that could deal with school funding in Ontario. Which one would you choose? ______Proportions/Means: Columns Tested (5% risk level) - A/B/C/D/E * small base; ** very small base (under 30) ineligible for sig testing ONTARIO DECIDED VOTERS TOTAL PC LIB NDP GP Other A B C D E

Base: Ontario respondents Unweighted Base 802 227 286 113 90 2 Weighted Base 802 239 309 125 43* 2**

Merging the two current systems into one 398 109 157 70 27 1 which would mean a single school system 50% 46% 51% 56% 63% 47% A Keep everything as it is and continue 246 70 117 28 9 0 funding Catholic schools, but not other religious schools 31% 29% 38% 23% 21% - ACD Extend funding to all faith-based schools in 141 59 31 25 6 1 the province 18% 25% 10% 20% 14% 53% BD B Don't know/Refused 17 1 3 2 1 0 2% 0 1% 2% 2% -

Ipsos-Reid Public Affairs September 25-27, 2007 4

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Filename: ONTVOTE3-F.DOC Ontario Provincial Election 2007 Detailed Tables

PARTY SUPPORT 1. Suppose for some reason you could not support this party, which party would you then be most likely to support? ______Proportions/Means: Columns Tested (5% risk level) - A/B/C/D/E * small base; ** very small base (under 30) ineligible for sig testing ONTARIO DECIDED VOTERS TOTAL PC LIB NDP GP Other A B C D E

Base: Decided Voters - Leaners Included who would vote for the a Specific Party Unweighted Base 716 227 286 113 90 0 Weighted Base 716 239 309 125 43* -**

The Ontario Progressive Conservatives 104 0 82 15 7 0 15% - 27% 12% 16% - ACD A A The Ontario Liberals 115 57 0 45 13 0 16% 24% - 36% 29% - B AB B The Ontario New Democratic Party 185 63 107 0 14 0 26% 26% 35% - 32% - C AC C The Ontario Green Party 145 44 60 41 0 0 20% 18% 19% 33% - - D D ABD Other 4 2 1 0 0 0 1% 1% 0 - 1% -

Would not support anyone else 49 21 19 7 2 0 7% 9% 6% 6% 5% -

Would not vote/spoil ballot 66 31 22 10 3 0 9% 13% 7% 8% 7% - B Don't Know/Undecided 46 19 18 5 4 0 6% 8% 6% 4% 9% -

Refused 3 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 1% - -

Ipsos-Reid Public Affairs September 25-27, 2007 5

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Filename: ONTVOTE3-F.DOC Ontario Provincial Election 2007 Detailed Tables

PARTY SUPPORT 1. Suppose for some reason you could not support ONTARIO PROGRESSIVE CONSERVATIVES, which party would you then be most likely to support? ______Proportions/Means: Columns Tested (5% risk level) - A/B/C/D/E ** very small base (under 30) ineligible for sig testing ONTARIO DECIDED VOTERS TOTAL PC LIB NDP GP Other A B C D E

Base: Decided Voters - Leaners Included who would vote for the Ontario Progressive Conservatives Unweighted Base 227 227 0 0 0 0 Weighted Base 239 239 -** -** -** -**

The Ontario Liberals 57 57 0 0 0 0 24% 24% - - - -

The Ontario New Democratic Party 63 63 0 0 0 0 26% 26% - - - -

The Ontario Green Party 44 44 0 0 0 0 18% 18% - - - -

Other 2 2 0 0 0 0 1% 1% - - - -

Would not support anyone else than the 21 21 0 0 0 0 Ontario Progressive Conservatives 9% 9% - - - -

Would not vote/spoil ballot 31 31 0 0 0 0 13% 13% - - - -

Don't Know/Undecided 19 19 0 0 0 0 8% 8% - - - -

Refused 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 - - - -

Ipsos-Reid Public Affairs September 25-27, 2007 6

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Filename: ONTVOTE3-F.DOC Ontario Provincial Election 2007 Detailed Tables

PARTY SUPPORT 1. Suppose for some reason you could not support ONTARIO LIBERALS, which party would you then be most likely to support? ______Proportions/Means: Columns Tested (5% risk level) - A/B/C/D/E ** very small base (under 30) ineligible for sig testing ONTARIO DECIDED VOTERS TOTAL PC LIB NDP GP Other A B C D E

Base: Decided Voters - Leaners Included who would vote for the Ontario Liberals Unweighted Base 286 0 286 0 0 0 Weighted Base 309 -** 309 -** -** -**

The Ontario Progressive Conservatives 82 0 82 0 0 0 27% - 27% - - -

The Ontario New Democratic Party 107 0 107 0 0 0 35% - 35% - - -

The Ontario Green Party 60 0 60 0 0 0 19% - 19% - - -

Other 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 - 0 - - -

Would not support anyone else than the 19 0 19 0 0 0 Ontario Liberals 6% - 6% - - -

Would not vote/spoil ballot 22 0 22 0 0 0 7% - 7% - - -

Don't Know/Undecided 18 0 18 0 0 0 6% - 6% - - -

Refused 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 - 0 - - -

Ipsos-Reid Public Affairs September 25-27, 2007 7

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Filename: ONTVOTE3-F.DOC Ontario Provincial Election 2007 Detailed Tables

PARTY SUPPORT 1. Suppose for some reason you could not support ONTARIO NEW DEMOCRATIC PARTY, which party would you then be most likely to support? ______Proportions/Means: Columns Tested (5% risk level) - A/B/C/D/E ** very small base (under 30) ineligible for sig testing ONTARIO DECIDED VOTERS TOTAL PC LIB NDP GP Other A B C D E

Base: Decided Voters - Leaners Included who would vote for the Ontario New Democratic Party Unweighted Base 113 0 0 113 0 0 Weighted Base 125 -** -** 125 -** -**

The Ontario Progressive Conservatives 15 0 0 15 0 0 12% - - 12% - -

The Ontario Liberals 45 0 0 45 0 0 36% - - 36% - -

The Ontario Green Party 41 0 0 41 0 0 33% - - 33% - -

Would not support anyone else than the 7 0 0 7 0 0 Ontario New Democratic Party 6% - - 6% - -

Would not vote/spoil ballot 10 0 0 10 0 0 8% - - 8% - -

Don't Know/Undecided 5 0 0 5 0 0 4% - - 4% - -

Refused 1 0 0 1 0 0 1% - - 1% - -

Ipsos-Reid Public Affairs September 25-27, 2007 8

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Filename: ONTVOTE3-F.DOC Ontario Provincial Election 2007 Detailed Tables

PARTY SUPPORT 1. Suppose for some reason you could not support ONTARIO GREEN PARTY, which party would you then be most likely to support? ______Proportions/Means: Columns Tested (5% risk level) - A/B/C/D/E * small base; ** very small base (under 30) ineligible for sig testing ONTARIO DECIDED VOTERS TOTAL PC LIB NDP GP Other A B C D E

Base: Decided Voters - Leaners Included who would vote for the Ontario Green Party Unweighted Base 90 0 0 0 90 0 Weighted Base 43* -** -** -** 43* -**

The Ontario Progressive Conservatives 7 0 0 0 7 0 16% - - - 16% -

The Ontario Liberals 13 0 0 0 13 0 29% - - - 29% -

The Ontario New Democratic Party 14 0 0 0 14 0 32% - - - 32% -

Other 0 0 0 0 0 0 1% - - - 1% -

Would not support anyone else than the 2 0 0 0 2 0 Ontario Green Party 5% - - - 5% -

Would not vote/spoil ballot 3 0 0 0 3 0 7% - - - 7% -

Don't Know/Undecided 4 0 0 0 4 0 9% - - - 9% -

Ipsos-Reid Public Affairs September 25-27, 2007 9

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Filename: ONTVOTE3-F.DOC Ontario Provincial Election 2007 Detailed Tables

PARTY SUPPORT 2. Forgetting for a minute about which party you may be supporting, based on what you have seen, read or heard, which of the four main party leaders do you think would make the best Premier of Ontario? ______Proportions/Means: Columns Tested (5% risk level) - A/B/C/D/E * small base; ** very small base (under 30) ineligible for sig testing ONTARIO DECIDED VOTERS TOTAL PC LIB NDP GP Other A B C D E

Base: Ontario respondents Unweighted Base 802 227 286 113 90 2 Weighted Base 802 239 309 125 43* 2**

Dalton McGuinty 267 14 225 12 8 2 33% 6% 73% 10% 18% 100% ACD A Howard Hampton 127 16 20 78 9 0 16% 7% 7% 63% 20% - ABD AB John Tory 257 193 35 16 8 0 32% 81% 11% 13% 20% - BCD B Frank de Jong 21 2 7 1 11 0 3% 1% 2% 1% 26% - ABC None of the above 52 3 15 8 3 0 6% 1% 5% 6% 8% - A A A Don't know/Refused 79 9 7 9 4 0 10% 4% 2% 7% 9% - B B

Ipsos-Reid Public Affairs September 25-27, 2007 10

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Filename: ONTVOTE3-F.DOC Ontario Provincial Election 2007 Detailed Tables

IMPRESSION & TRUST 1. GOOD JOB SUMMARY TABLE ______Proportions/Means: Columns Tested (5% risk level) - A/B/C/D/E * small base; ** very small base (under 30) ineligible for sig testing ONTARIO DECIDED VOTERS TOTAL PC LIB NDP GP Other A B C D E

Base: Ontario respondents Unweighted Base 802 227 286 113 90 2 Weighted Base 802 239 309 125 43* 2**

1) Liberal leader Dalton McGuinty 471 73 292 60 18 2 59% 30% 94% 48% 43% 100% ACD A A 3) Progressive Conservative leader John 470 225 152 50 18 2 Tory 59% 94% 49% 40% 42% 100% BCD 2) NDP leader Howard Hampton 463 118 172 118 26 2 58% 49% 56% 95% 59% 100% ABD 4) Green party leader Frank De Jong 303 68 118 66 34 1 38% 29% 38% 53% 80% 47% A AB ABC

Ipsos-Reid Public Affairs September 25-27, 2007 11

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Filename: ONTVOTE3-F.DOC Ontario Provincial Election 2007 Detailed Tables

IMPRESSION & TRUST 1. POOR JOB SUMMARY TABLE ______Proportions/Means: Columns Tested (5% risk level) - A/B/C/D/E * small base; ** very small base (under 30) ineligible for sig testing ONTARIO DECIDED VOTERS TOTAL PC LIB NDP GP Other A B C D E

Base: Ontario respondents Unweighted Base 802 227 286 113 90 2 Weighted Base 802 239 309 125 43* 2**

4) Green party leader Frank De Jong 334 129 144 36 6 1 42% 54% 47% 29% 14% 53% CD CD D 1) Liberal leader Dalton McGuinty 286 165 11 64 22 0 36% 69% 3% 51% 51% - BCD B B 3) Progressive Conservative leader John 261 11 142 71 22 0 Tory 33% 4% 46% 57% 51% - A A A 2) NDP leader Howard Hampton 254 105 117 4 12 0 32% 44% 38% 4% 28% - CD C C

Ipsos-Reid Public Affairs September 25-27, 2007 12

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Filename: ONTVOTE3-F.DOC Ontario Provincial Election 2007 Detailed Tables

IMPRESSION & TRUST 1. And, in your view, what kind of a job will: 1) Liberal leader Dalton McGuinty do as Ontario Premier if his party wins the upcoming election on October 10? Will he do a very good, good, poor or very poor job as Ontario's premier? ______Proportions/Means: Columns Tested (5% risk level) - A/B/C/D/E * small base; ** very small base (under 30) ineligible for sig testing ONTARIO DECIDED VOTERS TOTAL PC LIB NDP GP Other A B C D E

Base: Ontario respondents Unweighted Base 802 227 286 113 90 2 Weighted Base 802 239 309 125 43* 2**

Very good 104 7 89 1 2 0 13% 3% 29% 1% 5% - ACD C Good 367 66 203 58 16 2 46% 28% 66% 47% 37% 100% ACD A Poor 184 98 9 50 15 0 23% 41% 3% 40% 35% - B B B Very poor 102 67 2 14 7 0 13% 28% 1% 11% 16% - BCD B B Don't know/Refused 45 1 6 1 3 0 6% 0 2% 1% 6% - ABC

TOPBOX & LOWBOX SUMMARY

Good (Top2Box) 471 73 292 60 18 2 59% 30% 94% 48% 43% 100% ACD A A Poor (Low2Box) 286 165 11 64 22 0 36% 69% 3% 51% 51% - BCD B B

Ipsos-Reid Public Affairs September 25-27, 2007 13

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Filename: ONTVOTE3-F.DOC Ontario Provincial Election 2007 Detailed Tables

IMPRESSION & TRUST 1. And, in your view, what kind of a job will: 2) NDP leader Howard Hampton do as Ontario Premier if his party wins the upcoming election on October 10? Will he do a very good, good, poor or very poor job as Ontario's premier? ______Proportions/Means: Columns Tested (5% risk level) - A/B/C/D/E * small base; ** very small base (under 30) ineligible for sig testing ONTARIO DECIDED VOTERS TOTAL PC LIB NDP GP Other A B C D E

Base: Ontario respondents Unweighted Base 802 227 286 113 90 2 Weighted Base 802 239 309 125 43* 2**

Very good 79 8 17 50 3 0 10% 4% 5% 40% 6% - ABD Good 384 109 155 68 23 2 48% 46% 50% 54% 53% 100%

Poor 190 76 92 4 9 0 24% 32% 30% 4% 22% - C C C Very poor 64 29 26 0 3 0 8% 12% 8% - 6% - C C C Don't know/Refused 85 16 20 2 6 0 11% 7% 6% 2% 13% - BC

TOPBOX & LOWBOX SUMMARY

Good (Top2Box) 463 118 172 118 26 2 58% 49% 56% 95% 59% 100% ABD Poor (Low2Box) 254 105 117 4 12 0 32% 44% 38% 4% 28% - CD C C

Ipsos-Reid Public Affairs September 25-27, 2007 14

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Filename: ONTVOTE3-F.DOC Ontario Provincial Election 2007 Detailed Tables

IMPRESSION & TRUST 1. And, in your view, what kind of a job will: 3) Progressive Conservative leader John Tory do as Ontario Premier if his party wins the upcoming election on October 10? Will he do a very good, good, poor or very poor job as Ontario's premier? ______Proportions/Means: Columns Tested (5% risk level) - A/B/C/D/E * small base; ** very small base (under 30) ineligible for sig testing ONTARIO DECIDED VOTERS TOTAL PC LIB NDP GP Other A B C D E

Base: Ontario respondents Unweighted Base 802 227 286 113 90 2 Weighted Base 802 239 309 125 43* 2**

Very good 133 111 15 3 2 0 17% 46% 5% 3% 5% - BCD Good 337 114 137 47 16 2 42% 48% 44% 37% 37% 100%

Poor 176 8 96 47 16 0 22% 3% 31% 38% 37% - A A A Very poor 85 3 46 24 6 0 11% 1% 15% 19% 13% - A A A Don't know/Refused 71 3 15 4 3 0 9% 1% 5% 3% 7% - A A

TOPBOX & LOWBOX SUMMARY

Good (Top2Box) 470 225 152 50 18 2 59% 94% 49% 40% 42% 100% BCD Poor (Low2Box) 261 11 142 71 22 0 33% 4% 46% 57% 51% - A A A

Ipsos-Reid Public Affairs September 25-27, 2007 15

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Filename: ONTVOTE3-F.DOC Ontario Provincial Election 2007 Detailed Tables

IMPRESSION & TRUST 1. And, in your view, what kind of a job will: 4) Green party leader Frank De Jong do as Ontario Premier if his party wins the upcoming election on October 10? Will he do a very good, good, poor or very poor job as Ontario's premier? ______Proportions/Means: Columns Tested (5% risk level) - A/B/C/D/E * small base; ** very small base (under 30) ineligible for sig testing ONTARIO DECIDED VOTERS TOTAL PC LIB NDP GP Other A B C D E

Base: Ontario respondents Unweighted Base 802 227 286 113 90 2 Weighted Base 802 239 309 125 43* 2**

Very good 36 5 15 7 10 0 5% 2% 5% 5% 23% - ABC Good 266 63 103 59 25 1 33% 26% 33% 48% 58% 47% AB AB Poor 242 90 110 26 6 1 30% 38% 35% 21% 13% 53% CD CD Very poor 92 39 35 10 0 0 11% 16% 11% 8% 1% - CD D D Don't know/Refused 165 41 47 22 3 0 21% 17% 15% 18% 6% - D D D

TOPBOX & LOWBOX SUMMARY

Good (Top2Box) 303 68 118 66 34 1 38% 29% 38% 53% 80% 47% A AB ABC Poor (Low2Box) 334 129 144 36 6 1 42% 54% 47% 29% 14% 53% CD CD D

Ipsos-Reid Public Affairs September 25-27, 2007 16

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Filename: ONTVOTE3-F.DOC Ontario Provincial Election 2007 Detailed Tables

VOTE CERTAINTY 1. Based on how you feel right now, how certain are you as to which party's candidate you would support if the provincial election were held tomorrow? Would you say you are... ______Proportions/Means: Columns Tested (5% risk level) - A/B/C/D/E * small base; ** very small base (under 30) ineligible for sig testing ONTARIO DECIDED VOTERS TOTAL PC LIB NDP GP Other A B C D E

Base: Ontario respondents Unweighted Base 802 227 286 113 90 2 Weighted Base 802 239 309 125 43* 2**

Very certain 404 139 169 67 17 1 50% 58% 55% 54% 40% 53% D D Somewhat certain 209 63 94 34 13 1 26% 26% 30% 27% 30% 47%

Not very certain 85 18 27 13 7 0 11% 8% 9% 11% 16% - AB Not certain at all 88 16 17 10 6 0 11% 7% 5% 8% 13% - AB Don't know/Refused 16 4 2 0 0 0 2% 1% 1% - - -

TOPBOX & LOWBOX SUMMARY

Certain (Top2Box) 613 201 263 101 30 2 76% 84% 85% 81% 70% 100% D D Not certain (Low2Box) 174 34 44 24 13 0 22% 14% 14% 19% 30% - AB

Ipsos-Reid Public Affairs September 25-27, 2007 17

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Filename: ONTVOTE3-F.DOC Ontario Provincial Election 2007 Detailed Tables

VOTE CERTAINTY 2. And how likely is it that you will go out to vote on election day? Would you say... ______Proportions/Means: Columns Tested (5% risk level) - A/B/C/D/E * small base; ** very small base (under 30) ineligible for sig testing ONTARIO DECIDED VOTERS TOTAL PC LIB NDP GP Other A B C D E

Base: Ontario respondents Unweighted Base 802 227 286 113 90 2 Weighted Base 802 239 309 125 43* 2**

Absolutely certain 536 177 209 87 28 2 67% 74% 68% 70% 65% 100%

Very likely 135 36 60 23 8 0 17% 15% 19% 18% 19% -

Somewhat likely 60 14 21 10 3 0 7% 6% 7% 8% 6% -

Not very likely 18 2 5 1 2 0 2% 1% 2% 1% 4% -

Not likely at all 47 8 13 4 3 0 6% 3% 4% 4% 6% -

Don't know/Refused 6 2 1 0 0 0 1% 1% 0 - - -

TOPBOX & LOWBOX SUMMARY

Absolutely certain 536 177 209 87 28 2 67% 74% 68% 70% 65% 100%

Very/Somewhat likely 195 50 81 32 11 0 24% 21% 26% 26% 25% -

Not very/Not likely at all 65 10 18 5 4 0 8% 4% 6% 4% 10% - A

TOP3 & LOW2 SUMMARY

Likely to go out and vote 731 227 290 119 39 2 91% 95% 94% 96% 90% 100%

Ipsos-Reid Public Affairs September 25-27, 2007 18

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Filename: ONTVOTE3-F.DOC Ontario Provincial Election 2007 Detailed Tables

Not Likely to go out and vote 65 10 18 5 4 0 8% 4% 6% 4% 10% - A

Ipsos-Reid Public Affairs September 25-27, 2007 19

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Filename: ONTVOTE3-F.DOC