Ontario Provincial Election 2007 Detailed Tables ONTARIO VOTING INTENTIONS DECIDED VOTER (Leaners Included) ___________________________________________________________ Proportions/Means: Columns Tested (5% risk level) - A/B/C/D/E * small base; ** very small base (under 30) ineligible for sig testing ONTARIO DECIDED VOTERS TOTAL PC LIB NDP GP Other A B C D E Base: Ontario Decided Voters - Leaners Included Unweighted Base 718 227 286 113 90 2 Weighted Base 718 239 309 125 43* 2** The Ontario Progressive Conservatives 239 239 0 0 0 0 (PC), led by John Tory 33% 100% - - - - BCD The Ontario Liberals, led by Dalton 309 0 309 0 0 0 McGuinty 43% - 100% - - - ACD The Ontario New Democratic Party (NDP), 125 0 0 125 0 0 LED BY Howard Hampton 17% - - 100% - - ABD The Ontario Green Party, led by Frank de 43 0 0 0 43 0 Jong 6% - - - 100% - ABC Other 2 0 0 0 0 2 0 - - - - 100% Ipsos-Reid Public Affairs September 25-27, 2007 1 FINAL DATA Filename: ONTVOTE3-F.DOC Ontario Provincial Election 2007 Detailed Tables MCGUINTY RE-ELECTION 1. Some people say that the Liberal government under Premier Dalton McGuinty has done a good job and deserves to be re-elected during the Provincial election this upcoming October. Other people say that it is time for another provincial political party to take over and run the province. Which statement is closest to your point of view? ___________________________________________________________ Proportions/Means: Columns Tested (5% risk level) - A/B/C/D/E * small base; ** very small base (under 30) ineligible for sig testing ONTARIO DECIDED VOTERS TOTAL PC LIB NDP GP Other A B C D E Base: Ontario respondents Unweighted Base 802 227 286 113 90 2 Weighted Base 802 239 309 125 43* 2** Mcguinty government has done a good job 324 15 268 19 8 2 and deserves re-election 40% 6% 87% 15% 19% 100% ACD A A Time for another provincial political party to 415 221 27 101 34 0 take over 52% 92% 9% 81% 80% - BCD B B Don't know/Refused 63 3 14 5 1 0 8% 1% 4% 4% 1% - Ipsos-Reid Public Affairs September 25-27, 2007 2 FINAL DATA Filename: ONTVOTE3-F.DOC Ontario Provincial Election 2007 Detailed Tables FAITH BASED FUNDING 1. Overall, do you support or oppose Ontario Government extending full funding to these faith-based schools and others of a similar nature? ___________________________________________________________ Proportions/Means: Columns Tested (5% risk level) - A/B/C/D/E * small base; ** very small base (under 30) ineligible for sig testing ONTARIO DECIDED VOTERS TOTAL PC LIB NDP GP Other A B C D E Base: Ontario respondents Unweighted Base 802 227 286 113 90 2 Weighted Base 802 239 309 125 43* 2** Strongly support 102 51 25 12 4 1 13% 21% 8% 9% 9% 53% BCD Somewhat support 140 61 28 25 6 0 17% 26% 9% 20% 14% - BD B Somewhat oppose 133 40 59 19 6 0 17% 17% 19% 15% 14% - Strongly oppose 410 86 196 68 27 1 51% 36% 63% 54% 63% 47% A A A Neither 10 1 1 1 0 0 1% 0 0 1% 1% - Don't know/Refused 7 0 1 0 0 0 1% - 0 - - - TOPBOX & LOWBOX SUMMARY Support (Top2Box) 242 112 53 37 10 1 30% 47% 17% 29% 23% 53% BCD B Neither (MidBox) 10 1 1 1 0 0 1% 0 0 1% 1% - Oppose (Low2Box) 544 126 254 87 33 1 68% 53% 82% 70% 76% 47% AC A A Ipsos-Reid Public Affairs September 25-27, 2007 3 FINAL DATA Filename: ONTVOTE3-F.DOC Ontario Provincial Election 2007 Detailed Tables FAITH BASED FUNDING 2. Now, there are three options that could deal with school funding in Ontario. Which one would you choose? ___________________________________________________________ Proportions/Means: Columns Tested (5% risk level) - A/B/C/D/E * small base; ** very small base (under 30) ineligible for sig testing ONTARIO DECIDED VOTERS TOTAL PC LIB NDP GP Other A B C D E Base: Ontario respondents Unweighted Base 802 227 286 113 90 2 Weighted Base 802 239 309 125 43* 2** Merging the two current systems into one 398 109 157 70 27 1 which would mean a single school system 50% 46% 51% 56% 63% 47% A Keep everything as it is and continue 246 70 117 28 9 0 funding Catholic schools, but not other religious schools 31% 29% 38% 23% 21% - ACD Extend funding to all faith-based schools in 141 59 31 25 6 1 the province 18% 25% 10% 20% 14% 53% BD B Don't know/Refused 17 1 3 2 1 0 2% 0 1% 2% 2% - Ipsos-Reid Public Affairs September 25-27, 2007 4 FINAL DATA Filename: ONTVOTE3-F.DOC Ontario Provincial Election 2007 Detailed Tables PARTY SUPPORT 1. Suppose for some reason you could not support this party, which party would you then be most likely to support? ___________________________________________________________ Proportions/Means: Columns Tested (5% risk level) - A/B/C/D/E * small base; ** very small base (under 30) ineligible for sig testing ONTARIO DECIDED VOTERS TOTAL PC LIB NDP GP Other A B C D E Base: Decided Voters - Leaners Included who would vote for the a Specific Party Unweighted Base 716 227 286 113 90 0 Weighted Base 716 239 309 125 43* -** The Ontario Progressive Conservatives 104 0 82 15 7 0 15% - 27% 12% 16% - ACD A A The Ontario Liberals 115 57 0 45 13 0 16% 24% - 36% 29% - B AB B The Ontario New Democratic Party 185 63 107 0 14 0 26% 26% 35% - 32% - C AC C The Ontario Green Party 145 44 60 41 0 0 20% 18% 19% 33% - - D D ABD Other 4 2 1 0 0 0 1% 1% 0 - 1% - Would not support anyone else 49 21 19 7 2 0 7% 9% 6% 6% 5% - Would not vote/spoil ballot 66 31 22 10 3 0 9% 13% 7% 8% 7% - B Don't Know/Undecided 46 19 18 5 4 0 6% 8% 6% 4% 9% - Refused 3 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 1% - - Ipsos-Reid Public Affairs September 25-27, 2007 5 FINAL DATA Filename: ONTVOTE3-F.DOC Ontario Provincial Election 2007 Detailed Tables PARTY SUPPORT 1. Suppose for some reason you could not support ONTARIO PROGRESSIVE CONSERVATIVES, which party would you then be most likely to support? ___________________________________________________________ Proportions/Means: Columns Tested (5% risk level) - A/B/C/D/E ** very small base (under 30) ineligible for sig testing ONTARIO DECIDED VOTERS TOTAL PC LIB NDP GP Other A B C D E Base: Decided Voters - Leaners Included who would vote for the Ontario Progressive Conservatives Unweighted Base 227 227 0 0 0 0 Weighted Base 239 239 -** -** -** -** The Ontario Liberals 57 57 0 0 0 0 24% 24% - - - - The Ontario New Democratic Party 63 63 0 0 0 0 26% 26% - - - - The Ontario Green Party 44 44 0 0 0 0 18% 18% - - - - Other 2 2 0 0 0 0 1% 1% - - - - Would not support anyone else than the 21 21 0 0 0 0 Ontario Progressive Conservatives 9% 9% - - - - Would not vote/spoil ballot 31 31 0 0 0 0 13% 13% - - - - Don't Know/Undecided 19 19 0 0 0 0 8% 8% - - - - Refused 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 - - - - Ipsos-Reid Public Affairs September 25-27, 2007 6 FINAL DATA Filename: ONTVOTE3-F.DOC Ontario Provincial Election 2007 Detailed Tables PARTY SUPPORT 1. Suppose for some reason you could not support ONTARIO LIBERALS, which party would you then be most likely to support? ___________________________________________________________ Proportions/Means: Columns Tested (5% risk level) - A/B/C/D/E ** very small base (under 30) ineligible for sig testing ONTARIO DECIDED VOTERS TOTAL PC LIB NDP GP Other A B C D E Base: Decided Voters - Leaners Included who would vote for the Ontario Liberals Unweighted Base 286 0 286 0 0 0 Weighted Base 309 -** 309 -** -** -** The Ontario Progressive Conservatives 82 0 82 0 0 0 27% - 27% - - - The Ontario New Democratic Party 107 0 107 0 0 0 35% - 35% - - - The Ontario Green Party 60 0 60 0 0 0 19% - 19% - - - Other 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 - 0 - - - Would not support anyone else than the 19 0 19 0 0 0 Ontario Liberals 6% - 6% - - - Would not vote/spoil ballot 22 0 22 0 0 0 7% - 7% - - - Don't Know/Undecided 18 0 18 0 0 0 6% - 6% - - - Refused 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 - 0 - - - Ipsos-Reid Public Affairs September 25-27, 2007 7 FINAL DATA Filename: ONTVOTE3-F.DOC Ontario Provincial Election 2007 Detailed Tables PARTY SUPPORT 1. Suppose for some reason you could not support ONTARIO NEW DEMOCRATIC PARTY, which party would you then be most likely to support? ___________________________________________________________ Proportions/Means: Columns Tested (5% risk level) - A/B/C/D/E ** very small base (under 30) ineligible for sig testing ONTARIO DECIDED VOTERS TOTAL PC LIB NDP GP Other A B C D E Base: Decided Voters - Leaners Included who would vote for the Ontario New Democratic Party Unweighted Base 113 0 0 113 0 0 Weighted Base 125 -** -** 125 -** -** The Ontario Progressive Conservatives 15 0 0 15 0 0 12% - - 12% - - The Ontario Liberals 45 0 0 45 0 0 36% - - 36% - - The Ontario Green Party 41 0 0 41 0 0 33% - - 33% - - Would not support anyone else than the 7 0 0 7 0 0 Ontario New Democratic Party 6% - - 6% - - Would not vote/spoil ballot 10 0 0 10 0 0 8% - - 8% - - Don't Know/Undecided 5 0 0 5 0 0 4% - - 4% - - Refused 1 0 0 1 0 0 1% - - 1% - - Ipsos-Reid Public Affairs September 25-27, 2007 8 FINAL DATA Filename: ONTVOTE3-F.DOC Ontario Provincial Election 2007 Detailed Tables PARTY SUPPORT 1.