WMUR / UNH New Hampshire Tracking Poll

By: Andrew E. Smith, Ph.D. (603) 862-2226 October 27, 2008 UNH Survey Center - www.unh.edu/survey-center

OBAMA HOLDS WIDE LEAD IN NH

Durham, NH – Barack Obama holds a commanding lead over John McCain in New Hampshire and Jeanne Shaheen holds a double digit lead over incumbent Republican John Sununu in the New Hampshire Senate race.

These findings are based on the 2008 WMUR / UNH New Hampshire Tracking Poll, conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center. This survey is sponsored by WMUR-TV Manchester and the University of New Hampshire.* Six hundred ninety-eight (698) likely New Hampshire voters were interviewed between October 24 and October 26, 2008. The potential sampling error for the statewide survey is ±3.7%. Three-hundred forty-seven (347) likely 1 st District voters were surveyed (margin of sampling error of +/- 5.3%) and 351 likely 2 nd District voters were interviewed (margin of sampling error +/-5.3%). For more information about the WMUR / UNH Election Tracking Poll, go to www.unh.edu/survey- center/news/pdf/e2008_track08meth.pdf .

President Barack Obama continues to maintain a significant lead over John McCain in the race for President in New Hampshire. More than half of likely voters, 55%, say they plan to vote for Obama, 39% favor McCain, 2% prefer some other candidate, and 5% are undecided. These figures are essentially unchanged from a Boston Globe poll conducted October 18-22 by the UNH Survey Center but represent a significant change from mid-September when McCain held a 47% to 45% lead over Obama.

US President in NH – McCain vs. Obama 70% 55% 60% 54% 46% 50% 43% 45% 40% 49% 47% 43% 30% 39% 39% 20% 6% 8% 7% 6% 10% 5% 0%

08 2 il '08 ' -26 5-27 6-28 July '08 . 27-29 Apr Sept. t. 18-2 t. 24 t. 2 t. 2 t ct. 28-30 t. 29-31 Oc Oc Oc Oc Oc O Oc Oct. 31-Nov.2 Oct. 30 - Nov. 1

Obama McCain Undecided

Obama has opened up a sizeable lead among independent voters in New Hampshire – 54% of political independents say they favor Obama, 32% favor McCain, 3% prefer some other candidate, and 11% are undecided.

* We ask that this copyrighted information be referred to as the WMUR / UNH New Hampshire Tracking Poll , sponsored by WMUR-TV and the University of New Hampshire Survey Center. 1 US President Preference in NH Among Independent Voters 70% 60% 61% 54% 50% 52% 40% 42% 41% 35% 30% 31% 32% 27% 26% 20% 10% 0% Apr. July Sep. Oct. Oct. Oct. Oct. Oct. Oct. Oct. Oct. Oct. '08 '08 08 18-22 24-26 25-27 26-28 27-29 28-30 29-31 30 - 31- Nov. 1 Nov.2

Obama McCain

Support for Obama continues to solidify with 48% of likely voters say they are firm in their support of Obama, 3% saying they support Obama but could change their mind and 2% are currently undecided but lean toward Obama. Thirty-four percent of likely voters firmly support McCain, 1% support McCain but could change their minds, and 3% are undecided but lean toward McCain. Current State of NH Presidential Electorate 70% 45% 54% 55% 47% 39% 39% 60%

50% 6% 2% 3% 3% 5% 40% 5% 5% 5% 3% 2% 1% 30% 45% 48% 20% 38% 37% 32% 34% 10%

0% Obama - 9/08 Obama - Obama - McCain - McCain McCain 10/18-22 10/24-26 9/08 10/18-22 10/24-26

Firm Support May Change Mind Leaning Toward

2 The most important issue in the presidential campaign to New Hampshire voters are jobs and the economy (48%), the war in Iraq (10%), the campaign against terrorism (7%), the recent stock market crash (6%), and health care (6%). Economic concerns have topped the list of important issues to New Hampshire voters since mid-summer.

Most Important Issue in Presidential Campaign 60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

-22 -31 24-26 Nov. 1 -Nov.2 t. 18 t. ct. 26-28 t. 27-29 t. 28-30 t. 29 Oc Oc Oct. 25-27 O Oc Oc Oc 0 - . 31 Oct Oct. 3

Jobs, Economy Iraq Terror Health Care Stock Market

US Senate In the race for the U.S. Senate, incumbent Republican John Sununu trails his 2002 challenger Jeanne Shaheen by sizeable margin. Currently, 49% of likely New Hampshire voters say they will vote for Shaheen, 38% will vote for Sununu, 2% prefer some other candidate, and 12% are undecided. The dynamics of this race are similar to the presidential race with the Republican candidate losing ground since the financial crisis and stock market crash in September.

NH Senate Race – Sununu vs. Shaheen 70% 60% 54% 54% 54% 52% 49% 49% 46% 48% 50% 40% 44% 40% 42% 30% 38% 38% 37% 36% 38% 13% 20% 10% 12% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 10% 0%

7 2 '07 -29 b. '08 r. '08 8-30 9-31 July '07 July '08 Nov. 1 -Nov. Sep. Fe Ap Sep. '08 ct. 18-22 t. 24-26 t. 25-2 t. 26-28 t. 27 t. 2 t. 2 O Oc Oc Oc Oc Oc Oc . 30 - ct. 31 O Oct

Shaheen Sununu Undecided

3 NH Governor Incumbent John Lynch continues to maintain a wide lead over Republican Joe Kenney in the race for New Hampshire Governor. Lynch currently leads Kenney by a 68% to 18% margin with 1% favoring some other candidate, and 14% undecided. The dynamics of this race closely resemble Lynch’s 2006 victory over Jim Coburn.

NH Governor – Lynch vs. Kenney – Likely Voters 100% 90% 80% 68% 67% 66% 67% 68% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 17% 16% 17% 17% 18% 20% 10% 14% 16% 15% 15% 14% 0% April '08 July '08 Sep. '08 Oct. 18- Oct. 24- Oct. 25- Oct. 26- Oct. 27- Oct. 28- Oct. 29- Oct. 30 Oct. 31- 22 26 27 28 29 30 31 - Nov. 1 Nov.2

Lynch Kenney Undecided

The most important issue in the governor’s race are jobs and the economy (26%), taxes (22%), the state budget (15%), education funding (14%) and health care (6%).

Most Important Issue in NH Governor’s Campaign 40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

27 1 8-30 . 24-26 27-29 Nov. t t. 25- ct. 26-28 t. t. 2 t. 29-31 Oc Oc O Oc Oc Oc t. 30 - Oct. 31-Nov.2 Oc

Jobs, Economy Taxes State Budget Educ. Funding Health Care

4 NH First District In the race for New Hampshire’s 1 st Congressional District, incumbent Democrat Carol Shea-Porter holds a slim lead over Jeb Bradley in a rematch of their 2006 race. In the latest WMUR / UNH Tracking Poll, 48% of likely 1 st District voters say they will vote for Shea-Porter, 40% favor Bradley, 1% prefer some other candidate, and 11% remain undecided. Support for Shea- Porter has increased steadily during the fall campaign.

1st C.D. Race – Shea -Porter vs. Bradley 70% 60% 46% 48% 50% 45% 45% 44% 40% 40% 42% 40% 30% 39% 39% 20% 13% 14% 14% 10% 12% 11% 0% April July Sep. Oct. Oct. Oct. Oct. Oct. Oct. Oct. Oct. Oct. '08 '08 '08 18-22 24-26 25-27 26-28 27-29 28-30 29-31 30 - 31- Nov. 1 Nov.2

Shea-Porter Bradley Undecided

NH Second District In the 2 nd District, Democratic incumbent Paul Hodes holds a solid lead over Republican newcomer Jennifer Horn -- 48% of likely voters in the 2 nd District say they will vote for Hodes, only 26% say they will vote for Horn, 1% prefer some other candidate, and 25% remain undecided.

2nd C.D. Race – Hodes vs. Horn 70%

60% 52% 51% 48% 50% 43% 38% 40% 26% 26% 30% 25% 23% 25% 32% 33% 20% 25% 22% 24% 10%

0% April '08 July '08 Sep. '08 Oct. 18- Oct. 24- Oct. 25- Oct. 26- Oct. 27- Oct. 28- Oct. 29- Oct. 30 Oct. 31- 22 26 27 28 29 30 31 - Nov. 1 Nov.2

Hodes Horn Undecided

5 NH Senate Democrats continue to lead in generic ballots for the New Hampshire Senate -- 44% of likely voters say they plan to vote for the Democrat in their State Senate district, 35% plan to vote for the Republican, and 21% are undecided.

Vote for NH State Senate 60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0% July '08 Sep. '08 Oct. 18- Oct. 24- Oct. 25- Oct. 26- Oct. 27- Oct. 28- Oct. 29- Oct. 30 - Oct. 31- 22 26 27 28 29 30 31 Nov. 1 Nov.2

Republican Democrat Undecided

NH House Democrats also lead in generic ballots for the New Hampshire House -- 45% of likely voters say they plan to vote for the Democrat in their State House district, 33% plan to vote for the Republican, and 21% are undecided.

Vote for NH House of Representatives 60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0% July '08 Sep. '08 Oct. 18- Oct. 24- Oct. 25- Oct. 26- Oct. 27- Oct. 28- Oct. 29- Oct. 30 - Oct. 31- 22 26 27 28 29 30 31 Nov. 1 Nov.2

Republican Democrat Undecided

6

PRES1: "Thinking about the presidential election in November, will you vote for Republicans John McCain and Sarah Palin ... Democrats Barack Obama and Joe Biden ... someone else ... or haven't you decided yet?" ROTATE CANDIDATES INCLUDING LEANERS WHO HAVE BEEN PROBED

McCain Obama Other Undecided (N=) NH Voters 39% 55% 2% 5% 692

Registered Democrat 11% 87% 0% 2% 202 Registered Undeclared 30% 61% 3% 7% 285 Registered Republican 79% 14% 1% 6% 202

Democrat 9% 90% 0% 1% 311 Independent 32% 54% 3% 11% 109 Republican 79% 13% 2% 6% 250

Core Republican 90% 2% 2% 6% 209 Swing Voter 38% 49% 4% 9% 178 Core Democrat 4% 94% 0% 2% 305

Male 41% 53% 3% 4% 346 Female 36% 57% 0% 6% 345

High school or less 45% 47% 2% 6% 129 Some college 42% 50% 2% 7% 142 College graduate 42% 53% 2% 3% 241 Post-graduate 27% 67% 0% 5% 173

18 to 34 31% 63% 0% 6% 66 35 to 49 45% 49% 1% 5% 222 50 to 64 35% 58% 2% 5% 254 65 and over 39% 54% 3% 4% 130

Less than $30K 27% 62% 0% 10% 43 $30K to $60K 40% 54% 5% 1% 118 $60K to $75K 38% 59% 1% 2% 63 $75K to $100K 39% 59% 2% 0% 80 $100K or more 36% 59% 0% 5% 154

Attend services 1 or more/week 52% 41% 1% 6% 200 1-2 times a month 33% 61% 2% 4% 89 Less often 37% 55% 1% 6% 203 Never 27% 68% 2% 3% 176

10 yrs or less in NH 40% 50% 2% 8% 123 11 to 20 years 39% 56% 1% 4% 118 More than 20 years 39% 55% 2% 4% 437

North Country 37% 55% 0% 8% 70 Central / Lakes 34% 62% 2% 3% 122 Connecticut Valley 36% 59% 1% 3% 92 Mass Border 40% 50% 2% 8% 193 Seacoast 34% 62% 2% 3% 105 Manchester Area 48% 45% 2% 4% 110

First Cong. Dist 42% 51% 2% 5% 352 Second Cong. Dist 36% 58% 1% 5% 339

7 MIPUS "Of the following list, which one of these will be the single most important issue in your vote for president this year ... the U.S. campaign against terrorism ... the war in Iraq ... the economy and jobs ... education ... health care ... the stock market and financial situation ... Social Security ... gas and oil prices ... or something else?" ROTATE LIST

Jobs, War on Health Stock Economy Iraq Terror Care Market Other DK (N=) NH Voters 48% 10% 7% 6% 6% 22% 2% 696

Registered Democrat 48% 10% 3% 9% 5% 24% 1% 202 Registered Undeclared 51% 10% 4% 8% 6% 17% 4% 288 Registered Republican 43% 9% 14% 2% 5% 26% 1% 203

Democrat 51% 11% 2% 8% 5% 20% 2% 313 Independent 53% 13% 2% 7% 4% 18% 3% 111 Republican 41% 7% 14% 4% 7% 26% 2% 251

Core Republican 40% 8% 16% 3% 5% 27% 1% 210 Swing Voter 54% 8% 4% 7% 7% 16% 4% 181 Core Democrat 50% 12% 2% 9% 5% 21% 2% 305

Male 48% 9% 6% 5% 6% 23% 2% 351 Female 48% 10% 7% 8% 5% 20% 3% 345

High school or less 46% 13% 5% 6% 8% 21% 1% 131 Some college 50% 9% 6% 7% 4% 22% 3% 144 College graduate 51% 8% 7% 7% 8% 17% 2% 243 Post-graduate 42% 12% 7% 5% 3% 28% 4% 173

18 to 34 48% 6% 4% 6% 1% 33% 2% 66 35 to 49 51% 8% 6% 5% 8% 20% 2% 222 50 to 64 46% 12% 8% 6% 5% 21% 2% 257 65 and over 45% 11% 6% 10% 5% 20% 3% 130

Less than $30K 29% 20% 4% 8% 4% 35% 0% 43 $30K to $60K 51% 9% 2% 8% 2% 25% 3% 118 $60K to $75K 59% 10% 7% 8% 3% 11% 4% 63 $75K to $100K 48% 10% 7% 8% 8% 19% 0% 81 $100K or more 56% 7% 9% 3% 6% 18% 1% 155

Attend services 1 or more/week 47% 9% 8% 4% 6% 25% 2% 199 1-2 times a month 52% 8% 6% 8% 4% 20% 1% 89 Less often 50% 12% 6% 4% 8% 18% 4% 203 Never 45% 10% 3% 11% 4% 25% 2% 179

10 yrs or less in NH 45% 10% 9% 2% 12% 21% 1% 123 11 to 20 years 49% 12% 9% 5% 5% 17% 3% 117 More than 20 years 48% 9% 5% 8% 4% 23% 2% 442

North Country 41% 16% 2% 3% 3% 33% 2% 72 Central / Lakes 47% 9% 8% 5% 6% 23% 3% 121 Connecticut Valley 50% 8% 4% 5% 6% 24% 3% 93 Mass Border 54% 7% 8% 8% 5% 16% 2% 191 Seacoast 50% 12% 7% 6% 7% 16% 1% 108 Manchester Area 37% 10% 8% 9% 6% 26% 3% 110

First Cong. Dist 43% 11% 9% 6% 7% 21% 2% 357 Second Cong. Dist 52% 8% 4% 7% 4% 22% 3% 339

8 SEN1: "Lets turn to the November election for U.S. Senate from New Hampshire ... will you vote for John Sununu the Republican ... Jeanne Shaheen the Democrat ... someone else ... or haven't you decided yet?" IF UNDECIDED: "Would you say you are leaning toward Republican John Sununu or Democrat Jeanne Shaheen?"

Sununu Shaheen Other Undecided (N=) NH Voters 38% 49% 2% 12% 687

Registered Democrat 9% 83% 1% 7% 200 Registered Undeclared 30% 47% 3% 20% 284 Registered Republican 77% 15% 1% 7% 201

Democrat 6% 83% 1% 10% 309 Independent 35% 38% 3% 24% 109 Republican 79% 11% 2% 8% 248

Core Republican 89% 5% 1% 4% 207 Swing Voter 39% 28% 4% 29% 177 Core Democrat 2% 90% 0% 8% 303

Male 41% 47% 2% 10% 347 Female 34% 50% 2% 14% 341

High school or less 36% 46% 3% 15% 130 Some college 39% 44% 2% 14% 142 College graduate 40% 46% 1% 13% 239 Post-graduate 35% 58% 0% 7% 171

18 to 34 31% 49% 3% 18% 64 35 to 49 40% 45% 2% 13% 221 50 to 64 36% 52% 1% 10% 254 65 and over 41% 47% 1% 11% 127

Less than $30K 16% 61% 4% 19% 43 $30K to $60K 40% 43% 2% 14% 117 $60K to $75K 32% 55% 2% 10% 63 $75K to $100K 43% 52% 1% 4% 81 $100K or more 42% 49% 0% 10% 150

Attend services 1 or more/week 49% 40% 0% 11% 197 1-2 times a month 28% 52% 4% 16% 89 Less often 36% 52% 2% 10% 203 Never 31% 54% 1% 14% 176

10 yrs or less in NH 37% 41% 0% 22% 120 11 to 20 years 41% 46% 1% 12% 118 More than 20 years 37% 51% 2% 10% 435

North Country 39% 49% 1% 12% 72 Central / Lakes 30% 60% 1% 10% 119 Connecticut Valley 31% 51% 3% 15% 93 Mass Border 40% 43% 1% 15% 192 Seacoast 34% 54% 2% 10% 103 Manchester Area 51% 39% 2% 8% 109

First Cong. Dist 42% 46% 2% 10% 352 Second Cong. Dist 33% 51% 2% 14% 336

9 GOV1: "And turning to the November election for New Hampshire Governor, will you vote for Joe Kenney, the Republican ... John Lynch, the Democrat ... someone else ... or haven't you decided yet?" IF UNDECIDED: "Would you say you are leaning toward Republican Joe Kenney or Democrat John Lynch?"

Kenney Lynch Other Undecided (N=) NH Voters 18% 68% 1% 14% 688

Registered Democrat 4% 87% 2% 6% 203 Registered Undeclared 10% 73% 1% 17% 284 Registered Republican 43% 40% 0% 16% 199

Democrat 4% 88% 1% 6% 313 Independent 9% 63% 1% 27% 108 Republican 41% 43% 1% 16% 246

Core Republican 50% 31% 1% 18% 205 Swing Voter 8% 68% 1% 23% 176 Core Democrat 2% 92% 1% 5% 307

Male 19% 69% 1% 12% 342 Female 17% 67% 1% 15% 346

High school or less 18% 62% 1% 19% 131 Some college 24% 61% 0% 15% 139 College graduate 18% 69% 2% 11% 241 Post-graduate 12% 76% 1% 11% 173

18 to 34 17% 62% 0% 21% 65 35 to 49 16% 64% 2% 18% 222 50 to 64 17% 72% 0% 11% 255 65 and over 24% 71% 0% 5% 126

Less than $30K 13% 64% 1% 22% 43 $30K to $60K 25% 71% 1% 3% 117 $60K to $75K 13% 69% 3% 15% 63 $75K to $100K 16% 75% 1% 8% 81 $100K or more 16% 72% 1% 10% 153

Attend services 1 or more/week 29% 56% 1% 15% 200 1-2 times a month 8% 78% 1% 13% 89 Less often 15% 72% 1% 11% 201 Never 12% 72% 1% 15% 176

10 yrs or less in NH 12% 61% 2% 25% 121 11 to 20 years 23% 60% 0% 17% 118 More than 20 years 18% 71% 1% 10% 436

North Country 16% 66% 0% 18% 72 Central / Lakes 9% 82% 0% 8% 121 Connecticut Valley 17% 72% 0% 10% 92 Mass Border 18% 62% 1% 18% 189 Seacoast 18% 69% 3% 10% 104 Manchester Area 29% 57% 1% 14% 110

First Cong. Dist 21% 66% 1% 12% 354 Second Cong. Dist 15% 69% 1% 15% 334

10 MIPNH "Of the following list, which one of these will be the single most important issue in your vote for New Hampshire governor this year ... education funding … taxes … the state budget … jobs and the economy ... the cost of health care …the cost of oil and gas … or something else?" ROTATE LIST

Jobs, State Educ Health Economy Taxes Budget Funding Care Other DK (N=) NH Voters 26% 22% 15% 14% 6% 15% 2% 696

Registered Democrat 24% 16% 14% 17% 8% 20% 2% 203 Registered Undeclared 31% 18% 14% 17% 8% 11% 2% 287 Registered Republican 20% 35% 18% 5% 3% 17% 2% 203

Democrat 29% 13% 14% 19% 9% 15% 1% 313 Independent 28% 23% 11% 15% 6% 15% 3% 109 Republican 22% 34% 18% 6% 3% 16% 1% 250

Core Republican 19% 37% 20% 4% 2% 16% 2% 209 Swing Voter 26% 24% 12% 16% 7% 12% 3% 179 Core Democrat 30% 11% 14% 18% 9% 17% 1% 307

Male 24% 23% 19% 10% 4% 18% 2% 349 Female 28% 21% 11% 17% 9% 13% 1% 346

High school or less 24% 24% 17% 9% 8% 15% 2% 131 Some college 26% 27% 14% 12% 5% 16% 1% 144 College graduate 26% 26% 12% 14% 5% 16% 2% 243 Post-graduate 26% 13% 18% 18% 8% 15% 3% 173

18 to 34 32% 25% 10% 15% 5% 13% 0% 65 35 to 49 28% 24% 11% 17% 4% 15% 0% 222 50 to 64 25% 19% 16% 13% 7% 16% 3% 258 65 and over 21% 25% 18% 9% 10% 15% 3% 130

Less than $30K 20% 18% 22% 6% 10% 23% 1% 43 $30K to $60K 30% 17% 12% 16% 8% 14% 2% 117 $60K to $75K 28% 12% 28% 14% 4% 14% 0% 63 $75K to $100K 33% 29% 11% 14% 3% 9% 1% 81 $100K or more 23% 25% 15% 19% 4% 13% 0% 155

Attend services 1 or more/week 25% 23% 12% 14% 8% 16% 1% 200 1-2 times a month 26% 20% 15% 14% 5% 20% 1% 89 Less often 27% 21% 18% 14% 4% 14% 2% 203 Never 27% 21% 14% 13% 7% 16% 3% 179

10 yrs or less in NH 24% 27% 18% 13% 6% 10% 3% 123 11 to 20 years 25% 26% 12% 18% 4% 12% 2% 118 More than 20 years 26% 20% 15% 13% 7% 18% 1% 441

North Country 25% 19% 10% 14% 5% 25% 2% 72 Central / Lakes 29% 15% 17% 14% 4% 18% 2% 121 Connecticut Valley 21% 21% 20% 16% 6% 13% 3% 93 Mass Border 27% 27% 15% 11% 8% 11% 1% 192 Seacoast 26% 27% 10% 14% 7% 14% 1% 107 Manchester Area 24% 23% 17% 15% 5% 15% 2% 110

First Cong. Dist 25% 25% 13% 13% 7% 16% 1% 356 Second Cong. Dist 26% 20% 17% 14% 5% 14% 2% 339

11 CONG1: "Let's turn to the November election for the U.S. House of Representatives from the FIRST DISTRICT. Will you vote for Jeb Bradley, the Republican ... Carol Shea-Porter, the Democrat ... someone else ... or haven't you decided yet?" IF UNDECIDED: "Would you say you are leaning toward Republican Jeb Bradley or Democrat Carol Shea-Porter?"

Bradley Shea-Porter Other Undecided (N=) NH Voters 40% 48% 1% 11% 341

Registered Democrat 9% 81% 1% 10% 105 Registered Undeclared 33% 50% 3% 15% 132 Registered Republican 80% 13% 0% 7% 105

Democrat 8% 81% 1% 10% 153 Independent 38% 42% 1% 19% 45 Republican 79% 12% 0% 9% 129

Core Republican 90% 4% 1% 5% 115 Swing Voter 37% 36% 2% 25% 81 Core Democrat 3% 89% 1% 8% 145

Male 43% 46% 2% 9% 167 Female 37% 50% 0% 13% 174

High school or less 37% 50% 0% 13% 56 Some college 48% 41% 0% 11% 69 College graduate 43% 40% 2% 16% 120 Post-graduate 32% 61% 2% 4% 93

18 to 34 29% 54% 0% 16% 31 35 to 49 43% 39% 3% 16% 107 50 to 64 39% 52% 1% 8% 129 65 and over 41% 53% 0% 5% 62

Less than $30K 21% 52% 0% 26% 23 $30K to $60K 48% 42% 1% 9% 55 $60K to $75K 33% 58% 2% 7% 29 $75K to $100K 38% 51% 4% 7% 43 $100K or more 43% 50% 2% 6% 72

Attend services 1 or more/week 65% 25% 0% 10% 96 1-2 times a month 28% 64% 0% 8% 41 Less often 30% 57% 3% 10% 122 Never 26% 58% 0% 15% 65

10 yrs or less in NH 36% 47% 5% 12% 54 11 to 20 years 41% 50% 0% 9% 63 More than 20 years 41% 47% 1% 11% 216

North Country 38% 50% 0% 11% 30 Central / Lakes 39% 49% 1% 11% 41 Connecticut Valley 66% 14% 0% 20% 3 Mass Border 42% 43% 0% 14% 68 Seacoast 28% 59% 2% 11% 104 Manchester Area 52% 38% 2% 8% 95

First Cong. Dist 40% 48% 1% 11% 337 Second Cong. Dist 55% 29% 0% 16% 4

12 CONG2: "Let's turn to the November election for the U.S. House of Representatives from the SECOND DISTRICT. Will you vote for Jennifer Horn, the Republican ... Paul Hodes, the Democrat ... someone else ... or haven't you decided yet?" IF UNDECIDED: "Would you say you are leaning toward Republican Jennifer Horn or Democrat Paul Hodes?"

Horn Hodes Other Undecided (N=) NH Voters 26% 48% 1% 25% 344

Registered Democrat 8% 81% 0% 11% 98 Registered Undeclared 15% 46% 1% 38% 150 Registered Republican 63% 18% 1% 18% 93

Democrat 2% 77% 0% 21% 159 Independent 16% 35% 2% 47% 62 Republican 66% 13% 1% 20% 115

Core Republican 81% 6% 1% 11% 88 Swing Voter 14% 31% 1% 54% 96 Core Democrat 3% 82% 0% 15% 160

Male 33% 46% 0% 21% 176 Female 18% 51% 2% 29% 168

High school or less 26% 37% 1% 36% 75 Some college 23% 53% 3% 21% 69 College graduate 30% 46% 0% 24% 120 Post-graduate 20% 59% 1% 21% 78

18 to 34 16% 38% 4% 42% 32 35 to 49 32% 39% 1% 29% 113 50 to 64 22% 59% 1% 19% 126 65 and over 32% 46% 0% 23% 64

Less than $30K 10% 47% 0% 43% 20 $30K to $60K 24% 52% 0% 23% 61 $60K to $75K 40% 57% 0% 4% 33 $75K to $100K 26% 59% 1% 14% 36 $100K or more 30% 42% 0% 28% 80

Attend services 1 or more/week 36% 38% 0% 26% 101 1-2 times a month 20% 46% 2% 32% 47 Less often 33% 47% 0% 20% 78 Never 15% 60% 1% 24% 111

10 yrs or less in NH 22% 42% 2% 33% 67 11 to 20 years 28% 48% 0% 23% 54 More than 20 years 27% 49% 0% 23% 217

North Country 29% 38% 0% 34% 42 Central / Lakes 21% 53% 1% 26% 78 Connecticut Valley 24% 61% 1% 14% 90 Mass Border 30% 42% 0% 28% 119 Manchester Area 25% 31% 8% 36% 14

First Cong. Dist 10% 42% 7% 42% 15 Second Cong. Dist 27% 49% 1% 24% 329

13 NHHOUSE: "Please think about the November election for your representative to the New Hampshire House of Representatives. Do you plan to vote for the Republican or Democratic candidate for the New Hampshire House of Representatives ... or do you plan to skip the election for New Hampshire House of Representatives this time?" IF UNDECIDED: "Are you leaning toward voting for the Democratic candidate to the New Hampshire House of Representatives or for the Republican candidate?"

GOP Cand DEM Cand Other Undecided (N=) NH Voters 33% 45% 1% 21% 668

Registered Democrat 5% 85% 0% 9% 196 Registered Undeclared 22% 44% 2% 31% 275 Registered Republican 77% 7% 0% 16% 196

Democrat 3% 82% 1% 14% 301 Independent 18% 31% 0% 50% 107 Republican 78% 6% 1% 15% 239

Core Republican 88% 1% 2% 9% 202 Swing Voter 23% 24% 2% 51% 169 Core Democrat 1% 87% 1% 11% 297

Male 39% 42% 1% 18% 340 Female 27% 48% 1% 24% 328

High school or less 35% 39% 0% 25% 121 Some college 40% 41% 2% 17% 141 College graduate 34% 41% 2% 24% 232 Post-graduate 24% 59% 1% 16% 169

18 to 34 32% 52% 2% 15% 63 35 to 49 38% 37% 2% 24% 209 50 to 64 29% 50% 1% 20% 250 65 and over 34% 45% 0% 20% 126

Less than $30K 16% 60% 3% 21% 41 $30K to $60K 32% 47% 2% 19% 113 $60K to $75K 32% 51% 1% 16% 60 $75K to $100K 38% 48% 2% 12% 78 $100K or more 35% 44% 1% 20% 149

Attend services 1 or more/week 46% 35% 0% 19% 196 1-2 times a month 25% 50% 0% 25% 85 Less often 29% 49% 3% 20% 195 Never 25% 52% 1% 22% 168

10 yrs or less in NH 39% 36% 2% 24% 117 11 to 20 years 35% 45% 2% 18% 112 More than 20 years 31% 47% 1% 21% 424

North Country 34% 39% 0% 26% 71 Central / Lakes 24% 49% 1% 27% 116 Connecticut Valley 29% 47% 2% 22% 91 Mass Border 38% 42% 2% 18% 186 Seacoast 26% 55% 1% 18% 101 Manchester Area 44% 40% 2% 15% 102

First Cong. Dist 34% 48% 1% 17% 345 Second Cong. Dist 31% 42% 2% 25% 323

14 NHSEN: "Please think about the November election for your representative to the New Hampshire Senate. Do you plan to vote for the Republican or Democratic candidate for the New Hampshire Senate ... or do you plan to skip the election for New Hampshire Senate this time?" IF UNDECIDED: "Are you leaning toward voting for the Democratic candidate to the New Hampshire Senate or for the Republican candidate?"

GOP Cand DEM Cand Other Undecided (N=) NH Voters 35% 44% 1% 21% 677

Registered Democrat 6% 85% 0% 9% 199 Registered Undeclared 26% 43% 1% 30% 277 Registered Republican 77% 4% 1% 18% 198

Democrat 4% 82% 0% 13% 307 Independent 25% 23% 2% 50% 105 Republican 77% 5% 0% 18% 243

Core Republican 90% 0% 1% 9% 204 Swing Voter 26% 17% 3% 53% 172 Core Democrat 2% 89% 0% 10% 300

Male 41% 42% 1% 17% 339 Female 29% 46% 0% 24% 337

High school or less 35% 37% 1% 26% 126 Some college 44% 38% 0% 17% 141 College graduate 36% 41% 1% 23% 233 Post-graduate 25% 57% 1% 17% 170

18 to 34 32% 50% 0% 18% 63 35 to 49 40% 37% 2% 21% 213 50 to 64 32% 45% 0% 23% 253 65 and over 35% 47% 0% 18% 127

Less than $30K 10% 59% 1% 30% 42 $30K to $60K 37% 41% 1% 21% 115 $60K to $75K 31% 52% 1% 15% 60 $75K to $100K 39% 53% 0% 8% 80 $100K or more 36% 42% 1% 21% 149

Attend services 1 or more/week 46% 32% 1% 20% 198 1-2 times a month 28% 51% 0% 21% 87 Less often 34% 46% 2% 19% 197 Never 24% 52% 0% 24% 170

10 yrs or less in NH 39% 39% 1% 21% 117 11 to 20 years 35% 50% 1% 14% 115 More than 20 years 34% 42% 1% 23% 430

North Country 38% 34% 0% 28% 72 Central / Lakes 24% 50% 1% 25% 118 Connecticut Valley 30% 50% 1% 18% 91 Mass Border 39% 39% 1% 21% 187 Seacoast 30% 53% 1% 17% 103 Manchester Area 47% 38% 2% 14% 105

First Cong. Dist 37% 45% 1% 17% 346 Second Cong. Dist 32% 42% 1% 24% 330

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