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Obama Holds Wide Lead in NH Race 10/27/2008

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Obama Holds Wide Lead in NH Race 10/27/2008 WMUR / UNH New Hampshire Tracking Poll By: Andrew E. Smith, Ph.D. (603) 862-2226 October 27, 2008 UNH Survey Center - www.unh.edu/survey-center OBAMA HOLDS WIDE LEAD IN NH Durham, NH – Barack Obama holds a commanding lead over John McCain in New Hampshire and Jeanne Shaheen holds a double digit lead over incumbent Republican John Sununu in the New Hampshire Senate race. These findings are based on the 2008 WMUR / UNH New Hampshire Tracking Poll, conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center. This survey is sponsored by WMUR-TV Manchester and the University of New Hampshire.* Six hundred ninety-eight (698) likely New Hampshire voters were interviewed between October 24 and October 26, 2008. The potential sampling error for the statewide survey is ±3.7%. Three-hundred forty-seven (347) likely 1 st District voters were surveyed (margin of sampling error of +/- 5.3%) and 351 likely 2 nd District voters were interviewed (margin of sampling error +/-5.3%). For more information about the WMUR / UNH Election Tracking Poll, go to www.unh.edu/survey- center/news/pdf/e2008_track08meth.pdf . President Barack Obama continues to maintain a significant lead over John McCain in the race for President in New Hampshire. More than half of likely voters, 55%, say they plan to vote for Obama, 39% favor McCain, 2% prefer some other candidate, and 5% are undecided. These figures are essentially unchanged from a Boston Globe poll conducted October 18-22 by the UNH Survey Center but represent a significant change from mid-September when McCain held a 47% to 45% lead over Obama. US President in NH – McCain vs. Obama 70% 55% 60% 54% 46% 50% 43% 45% 40% 49% 47% 43% 30% 39% 39% 20% 6% 8% 7% 6% 10% 5% 0% 08 2 il '08 ' -26 5-27 6-28 July '08 . 27-29 Apr Sept. t. 18-2 t. 24 t. 2 t. 2 t ct. 28-30 t. 29-31 Oc Oc Oc Oc Oc O Oc Oct. 31-Nov.2 Oct. 30 - Nov. 1 Obama McCain Undecided Obama has opened up a sizeable lead among independent voters in New Hampshire – 54% of political independents say they favor Obama, 32% favor McCain, 3% prefer some other candidate, and 11% are undecided. * We ask that this copyrighted information be referred to as the WMUR / UNH New Hampshire Tracking Poll , sponsored by WMUR-TV and the University of New Hampshire Survey Center. 1 US President Preference in NH Among Independent Voters 70% 60% 61% 54% 50% 52% 40% 42% 41% 35% 30% 31% 32% 27% 26% 20% 10% 0% Apr. July Sep. Oct. Oct. Oct. Oct. Oct. Oct. Oct. Oct. Oct. '08 '08 08 18-22 24-26 25-27 26-28 27-29 28-30 29-31 30 - 31- Nov. 1 Nov.2 Obama McCain Support for Obama continues to solidify with 48% of likely voters say they are firm in their support of Obama, 3% saying they support Obama but could change their mind and 2% are currently undecided but lean toward Obama. Thirty-four percent of likely voters firmly support McCain, 1% support McCain but could change their minds, and 3% are undecided but lean toward McCain. Current State of NH Presidential Electorate 70% 45% 54% 55% 47% 39% 39% 60% 50% 6% 2% 3% 3% 5% 40% 5% 5% 5% 3% 2% 1% 30% 45% 48% 20% 38% 37% 32% 34% 10% 0% Obama - 9/08 Obama - Obama - McCain - McCain McCain 10/18-22 10/24-26 9/08 10/18-22 10/24-26 Firm Support May Change Mind Leaning Toward 2 The most important issue in the presidential campaign to New Hampshire voters are jobs and the economy (48%), the war in Iraq (10%), the campaign against terrorism (7%), the recent stock market crash (6%), and health care (6%). Economic concerns have topped the list of important issues to New Hampshire voters since mid-summer. Most Important Issue in Presidential Campaign 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% -22 -31 24-26 Nov. 1 -Nov.2 t. 18 t. ct. 26-28 t. 27-29 t. 28-30 t. 29 Oc Oc Oct. 25-27 O Oc Oc Oc 0 - . 31 Oct Oct. 3 Jobs, Economy Iraq Terror Health Care Stock Market US Senate In the race for the U.S. Senate, incumbent Republican John Sununu trails his 2002 challenger Jeanne Shaheen by sizeable margin. Currently, 49% of likely New Hampshire voters say they will vote for Shaheen, 38% will vote for Sununu, 2% prefer some other candidate, and 12% are undecided. The dynamics of this race are similar to the presidential race with the Republican candidate losing ground since the financial crisis and stock market crash in September. NH Senate Race – Sununu vs. Shaheen 70% 60% 54% 54% 54% 52% 49% 49% 46% 48% 50% 40% 44% 40% 42% 30% 38% 38% 37% 36% 38% 13% 20% 10% 12% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 10% 0% 7 2 '07 -29 b. '08 r. '08 8-30 9-31 July '07 July '08 Nov. 1 -Nov. Sep. Fe Ap Sep. '08 ct. 18-22 t. 24-26 t. 25-2 t. 26-28 t. 27 t. 2 t. 2 O Oc Oc Oc Oc Oc Oc . 30 - ct. 31 O Oct Shaheen Sununu Undecided 3 NH Governor Incumbent John Lynch continues to maintain a wide lead over Republican Joe Kenney in the race for New Hampshire Governor. Lynch currently leads Kenney by a 68% to 18% margin with 1% favoring some other candidate, and 14% undecided. The dynamics of this race closely resemble Lynch’s 2006 victory over Jim Coburn. NH Governor – Lynch vs. Kenney – Likely Voters 100% 90% 80% 68% 67% 66% 67% 68% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 17% 16% 17% 17% 18% 20% 10% 14% 16% 15% 15% 14% 0% April '08 July '08 Sep. '08 Oct. 18- Oct. 24- Oct. 25- Oct. 26- Oct. 27- Oct. 28- Oct. 29- Oct. 30 Oct. 31- 22 26 27 28 29 30 31 - Nov. 1 Nov.2 Lynch Kenney Undecided The most important issue in the governor’s race are jobs and the economy (26%), taxes (22%), the state budget (15%), education funding (14%) and health care (6%). Most Important Issue in NH Governor’s Campaign 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 27 1 8-30 . 24-26 27-29 Nov. t t. 25- ct. 26-28 t. t. 2 t. 29-31 Oc Oc O Oc Oc Oc t. 30 - Oct. 31-Nov.2 Oc Jobs, Economy Taxes State Budget Educ. Funding Health Care 4 NH First District In the race for New Hampshire’s 1 st Congressional District, incumbent Democrat Carol Shea-Porter holds a slim lead over Jeb Bradley in a rematch of their 2006 race. In the latest WMUR / UNH Tracking Poll, 48% of likely 1 st District voters say they will vote for Shea-Porter, 40% favor Bradley, 1% prefer some other candidate, and 11% remain undecided. Support for Shea- Porter has increased steadily during the fall campaign. 1st C.D. Race – Shea -Porter vs. Bradley 70% 60% 46% 48% 50% 45% 45% 44% 40% 40% 42% 40% 30% 39% 39% 20% 13% 14% 14% 10% 12% 11% 0% April July Sep. Oct. Oct. Oct. Oct. Oct. Oct. Oct. Oct. Oct. '08 '08 '08 18-22 24-26 25-27 26-28 27-29 28-30 29-31 30 - 31- Nov. 1 Nov.2 Shea-Porter Bradley Undecided NH Second District In the 2 nd District, Democratic incumbent Paul Hodes holds a solid lead over Republican newcomer Jennifer Horn -- 48% of likely voters in the 2 nd District say they will vote for Hodes, only 26% say they will vote for Horn, 1% prefer some other candidate, and 25% remain undecided. 2nd C.D. Race – Hodes vs. Horn 70% 60% 52% 51% 48% 50% 43% 38% 40% 26% 26% 30% 25% 23% 25% 32% 33% 20% 25% 22% 24% 10% 0% April '08 July '08 Sep. '08 Oct. 18- Oct. 24- Oct. 25- Oct. 26- Oct. 27- Oct. 28- Oct. 29- Oct. 30 Oct. 31- 22 26 27 28 29 30 31 - Nov. 1 Nov.2 Hodes Horn Undecided 5 NH Senate Democrats continue to lead in generic ballots for the New Hampshire Senate -- 44% of likely voters say they plan to vote for the Democrat in their State Senate district, 35% plan to vote for the Republican, and 21% are undecided. Vote for NH State Senate 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% July '08 Sep. '08 Oct. 18- Oct. 24- Oct. 25- Oct. 26- Oct. 27- Oct. 28- Oct. 29- Oct. 30 - Oct. 31- 22 26 27 28 29 30 31 Nov. 1 Nov.2 Republican Democrat Undecided NH House Democrats also lead in generic ballots for the New Hampshire House -- 45% of likely voters say they plan to vote for the Democrat in their State House district, 33% plan to vote for the Republican, and 21% are undecided. Vote for NH House of Representatives 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% July '08 Sep. '08 Oct. 18- Oct. 24- Oct. 25- Oct. 26- Oct. 27- Oct. 28- Oct. 29- Oct. 30 - Oct. 31- 22 26 27 28 29 30 31 Nov. 1 Nov.2 Republican Democrat Undecided 6 PRES1: "Thinking about the presidential election in November, will you vote for Republicans John McCain and Sarah Palin ... Democrats Barack Obama and Joe Biden ... someone else ... or haven't you decided yet?" ROTATE CANDIDATES INCLUDING LEANERS WHO HAVE BEEN PROBED McCain Obama Other Undecided (N=) NH Voters 39% 55% 2% 5% 692 Registered Democrat 11% 87% 0% 2% 202 Registered Undeclared 30% 61% 3% 7% 285 Registered Republican 79% 14% 1% 6% 202 Democrat 9% 90% 0% 1% 311 Independent 32% 54% 3% 11% 109 Republican 79% 13% 2% 6% 250 Core Republican 90% 2% 2% 6% 209 Swing Voter 38% 49% 4% 9% 178 Core Democrat 4% 94% 0% 2% 305 Male 41% 53% 3% 4% 346 Female 36% 57% 0% 6% 345 High school or less 45% 47% 2% 6% 129 Some college 42% 50% 2% 7% 142 College graduate 42% 53% 2% 3% 241 Post-graduate 27% 67% 0% 5% 173 18 to 34 31% 63% 0% 6% 66 35 to 49 45% 49% 1% 5% 222 50 to 64 35% 58% 2% 5% 254 65 and over 39% 54% 3% 4% 130 Less than $30K 27% 62% 0% 10% 43 $30K to $60K 40% 54% 5% 1% 118 $60K to $75K 38% 59% 1% 2% 63 $75K to $100K 39% 59% 2% 0% 80 $100K or more 36% 59% 0% 5% 154 Attend services 1 or more/week 52% 41% 1% 6% 200 1-2 times a month 33% 61% 2% 4% 89 Less often 37% 55% 1% 6% 203 Never 27% 68% 2% 3% 176 10 yrs or less in NH 40% 50% 2% 8% 123 11 to 20 years 39% 56% 1% 4% 118 More than 20 years 39% 55% 2% 4% 437 North Country 37% 55% 0% 8% 70 Central / Lakes 34% 62% 2% 3% 122 Connecticut Valley 36% 59% 1% 3% 92 Mass Border 40% 50% 2% 8% 193 Seacoast 34% 62% 2% 3% 105 Manchester Area 48% 45% 2% 4% 110 First Cong.
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