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Nota De Mercado Infraestructuras 2012

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Nota De Mercado Infraestructuras 2012 Oficina Económica y Comercial de la Embajada de España en Ho Chi Minh City El sector de las infraestructuras en Vietnam Otros documentos documentos Otros 1 El sector de las infraestructuras en Vietnam Otros documentos documentos Otros Este estudio ha sido realizado por Alejandro De Miguel bajo la supervisión de la Oficina Econó- 2 mica y Comercial de la Embajada de España en Mayo 2012 Ho Chi Minh City EL SECTOR DE LAS INFRAESTRUCTURAS EN VIETNAM ÍNDICE I. INTRODUCCIÓN 4 II. SITUACIÓN ACTUAL DE LAS INFRAESTRUCTURAS 6 III. PRINCIPALES PROYECTOS VIGENTES 23 IV. ANEXOS 44 A. Proyectos de infraestructuras y relacionados apoyados por agencias de aod 44 V. DIRECCIONES DE INTERÉS 49 Oficina Económica y Comercial de la Embajada de España en Ho Chi Minh City 333 EL SECTOR DE LAS INFRAESTRUCTURAS EN VIETNAM I. INTRODUCCIÓN Las infraestructuras de transporte o más bien la falta de las mismas se ha convertido en uno de los principales escollos para el crecimiento sostenido de Vietnam. Una de las quejas más frecuentes de los inversores extranjeros está relacionada con el colapso de los puertos, los problemas logísticos y las deficientes carreteras. Los deficientes aeropuertos y ferrocarri- les son también un freno para el desarrollo del turismo y las comunicaciones internas en mu- chas regiones del país. Del mismo modo, los principales núcleos urbanos (Ciudad Ho Chi Minh y Hanoi) se encuentran inmersos en un proceso de reorganización del transporte urba- no. Según el “Informe de competitividad global” elaborado por el Foro Económico Mundial, en 2010 la calidad de las infraestructuras en Vietnam ocupaban el puesto 123 de 139 países analizados. Este puesto se ha mantenido en 2011, pero sin embargo a nivel individual todas y cada una se puntúan peor. Así, para el Foro Económico Mundial los esfuerzos de Vietnam por ponerse al día en sus infraestructuras son bastantes infructuosos, y a pesar de sus es- fuerzos éstos son muy insuficientes. Ranking mundial Índices de competitividad en Vietnam Sobre 139 Sobre 142 2010-2011 2011-2012 Calidad general de las infraestructuras 123 123 Calidad de las carreteras 117 123 Calidad de las infraestructuras ferroviarias 59 71 Calidad de los puertos 97 111 Calidad de las infraestructuras aeroportuarias 88 95 Fuente: The Global Competitiveness Report 20102010----2012012011111 y 20112011----201220122012.. World Economic Forum. Los obstáculos orográficos, hidrológicos y la propia configuración geográfica, con dos centros de gravedad social y económica (Hanoi en el norte, Ciudad Ho Chi Minh en el sur) alejados por más de 1100Km, implican serias dificultades en la planificación técnica de las infraestructuras y en la cobertura que ofrecen los medios de transporte. Asimismo, factores como la actual coyuntura económica mundial, las perturbaciones monetarias a nivel local o Oficina Económica y Comercial de la Embajada de España en Ho Chi Minh City 444 EL SECTOR DE LAS INFRAESTRUCTURAS EN VIETNAM la propia organización burocrática de Vietnam han contribuido a una ralentización de los proyectos más relevantes. De esta forma, durante 2010 y 2011, la falta de financiación priva- da y dada por el gobierno vietnamita ha sido la principal preocupación a la hora de imple- mentar los proyectos establecidos . El limitado presupuesto gubernamental ha supuesto re- trasos en la mayoría de los trabajos vigentes, de modo que el Ministerio de Transporte (en adelante MOT) está centrando sus esfuerzos en desarrollar formulas que alivien la carga de los contratistas y dichos trabajos puedan ser reanudados. Esto ha dado lugar a la paradójica situación en que los fondos de ayuda al desarrollo concedidos en préstamo por organismos de ayuda internacionales como el Banco de desarrollo asiático (ADB) o el Banco Mundial (BM), cuyas cuantías no han decaído, no encuentran salida. Estos organismos culpan al Go- bierno de no poder gestionarlos eficientemente, y le amenazan de empezar a llevar sus fon- dos a otros países necesitados de ellos como Camboya. No sólo el limitado presupuesto gubernamental es la razón del retraso en el desarrollo de infraestructuras. Las competencias ministeriales no están bien definidas, dando lugar a que existan muchos planes en Vietnam, ya que cada ministerio define planes para alcanzar cier- tos objetivos y sus propios intereses. Así, demasiadas unidades están involucradas en el proceso de compilar e implementar estos planes, y como consecuencia de ello, éstos tien- den a solaparse. En el nuevo plan para el desarrollo de las infraestructuras del trasporte en Vietnam que aún está pendiente de aprobarse en 2012, el MoT ha estimado las necesidades de inversión en infraestructuras del transporte en casi 29.000 millones de dólares hasta 2015, para no quedarse atrás en su objetivo de convertir a Vietnam en un país industrializado de renta me- dia para el 2020. De estos 29 miles de millones, 23 serán gestionados por el MoT, que inclu- yen 16,5 que se esperan obtener de diversas fuentes, además de 432 millones de fuentes extranjeras y 816 millones de capital correspondiente para proyectos de AOD. En 2012, el Viceministro de Transporte, Truong Tan Vien, afirmó que se invertirá unos 42 billones de VND (unos 2 mil millones de USD) en el desarrollo de infraestructuras este año (sin considerar los grandes proyectos), lo que supone un aumento del 31% con respecto al año pasado. Según el viceministro, más de la mitad del dinero provendría de fuera de los presupuestos del Esta- do mediante la movilización de proyectos BOT (Construir – operar – tranferir) y BT (Construir – Transferir). Más de un tercio se obtendría de bonos del Estado y el restante 18% sí que se provendría de los presupuestos del Estado. Estos recursos se utilizarán para construir o me- jorar 1.000 km de carreteras, 15 km de pasos elevados, 230 km de barreras para mantener la seguridad vial, 232 metros de puerto y 1.930 metros de diques marítimos. En los últimos años, los esfuerzos del gobierno se han centrado en la rehabilitación y me- jora de los ejes principales de transporte de larga distancia. Para ello, tanto el MPI como el MOT han establecido sus principales objetivos en torno a las autovías nacionales y a las co- nexiones con los países vecinos. Para aumentar la inversión en el sector, las autoridades han tratado de fomentar tanto los esquemas BOT, BTO y BT, así como los proyectos PPP con apoyo gubernamental y de instituciones multilaterales como el banco mundial (BM) o el ban- co asiático de desarrollo (BAsD). Se espera que en 2012 se terminen 7562 proyectos relacio- nados con el transporte. Oficina Económica y Comercial de la Embajada de España en Ho Chi Minh City 555 EL SECTOR DE LAS INFRAESTRUCTURAS EN VIETNAM II. SITUACIÓN ACTUAL DE LAS INFRAESTRUCTURAS 2.1. SITUACIÓN GENERAL El sector del transporte sigue constituyendo la mayoría de la inversión en infraestructura en Vietnam. Desde 2007, cuando representaba el 59,5% del valor total de las infraestructura, se ha pasado a un valor estimado del 70,6% en 2011, y según BMI se mantendrá muy cer- cano a esta cifra hasta incluso más allá del 2015. Como se ha comentado, Vietnam aún man- tiene un déficit significativo en infraestructuras del transporte, por lo que a plazo medio y lar- go el Gobierno de Vietnam continuará desarrollando este subsector. Ya no se espera que sea a corto plazo, pues las últimas políticas del gobierno de recortes del gasto público para evitar el sobrecalentamiento de la economía y controlar la inflación merma el desembolso público en infraestructuras del transporte, incrementándose el citado déficit. Así, BMI espera que crezca en un promedio de 4,2% anual entre 2011 y 2015, a diferencia del crecimiento de valor registrado en los anteriores años, del 25,8% en 2009 del 21,2% en 2010. Progresión del valor de las infraestructuras del transporte 80,0% 70,0% 60,0% 50,0% 40,0% 30,0% 20,0% 10,0% 0,0% 2007 2008 2009e 2010p 2011p 2012p 2013p Valor de la industria de la infraestructuras del transporte en proporción al total de infraestructuras Crecimiento real del valor de la industria de la infraestructuras del transporte Fuente: Vietnam Infrastructure Report Q3 2011. Business Monitor International. Oficina Económica y Comercial de la Embajada de España en Ho Chi Minh City 666 EL SECTOR DE LAS INFRAESTRUCTURAS EN VIETNAM El trasiego de personas y mercancías en Vietnam cada vez es mayor. Conforme el poder adquisitivo de la sociedad va subiendo, más consumo local y más necesidad de desplaza- miento existen, este último bien sea por motivos turísticos o profesionales. Debido al comer- cio creciente del país, más necesidades logísticas surgen, y por tanto mejores infraestructu- ras se requieren, y conforme más medios de transporte personales se adquieren, más y mejores carreteras se necesitan. Distribución de los mdios utilizados para la Distribución de los medios utilizados por los carga pasajeros 6,7% 6,7% 15,4% 76,9% 92,1% Aéreo Ferroviario Marítimo Fluvial Carretera Aéreo Ferroviario Marítimo Fluvial Carretera Fuente: General Statistics Office Tanto para pasajeros como para mercancía, el medio de transporte más utilizado, como es común, es la carretera, con un 92,1% y 76,9% del total respectivamente. Éste ha visto un incremento del 15% para personas y del 13% para carga con respecto al año pasado. Me- nos común es que el segundo medio de transporte más utilizado sea el fluvial. Esto se debe a las características geográficas de Vietnam, en la que los ríos navegables abundan. Además, las dos grandes ciudades del país no se encuentran en la costa sino en el interior, cruzadas ambas por un río, el Rojo y el Saigón respectivamente, y con un puerto de mer- cancía cada una. Del mismo modo, no es común que las cuotas del transporte ferroviario sean muy pe- queñas en comparación con el resto (0,4% para pasajeros, 0,9% para carga), y en el caso de la carga va en detrimento.
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