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Marc Townsend, Managing Director, CBRE Vietnam Hanoi, 7Th April, 2016

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Marc Townsend, Managing Director, CBRE Vietnam Hanoi, 7Th April, 2016 Marc Townsend, Managing Director, CBRE Vietnam Hanoi, 7th April, 2016 1 CBRE | HANOI MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2016 NEW LEADERSHIP, DROUGHT AND CHINA 2 CBRE | HANOI MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2016 UP, UP AND AWAY 3 CBRE | HANOI MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2016 2016 SOUTH EAST ASIA HEADWINDS 4 CBRE | HANOI MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2016 2016 VIETNAM HEADWINDS Challenges from drought, salinization and (un)predictable weather patterns Mekong Delta Dam Map, retrieved at www.internationalrivers.org. 5 CBRE | HANOI MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2016 VIETNAM ECONOMY Market recovery continues 6 CBRE | HANOI MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2016 VIETNAM ECONOMY 2016 starts on a mediocre note Q1 2016 25 20 X GDP up 5.46% 15 (Q1 2015: 6.12%) 10 5 Interest rate (%)rate Interest 0 Committed up FDI 2014 2015 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 119% y-o-y to US$4 bn 2007 Q1/2016 Average CPI (y-o-y) Lending rate Deposit rate CPI up 1.7% y-o-y 720 6,000 650 5,000 FX Reserves up to 580 4,000 US$40bn and stable 510 3,000 US$/VND VND) VNIndex 440 2,000 370 1,000 Retail Sales up 8.9% 300 0 (Billions Value Trading (in real terms) Jul-14 Jul-15 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Mar-14 Mar-15 Sep-15 Nov-15 Sep-14 Nov-14 May-14 May-15 Petro price hike 5% Trading value VNIndex y-o-y 7 CBRE | HANOI MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2016 VIETNAM ECONOMY 140 120 100 80 Index 60 Global Crude Oil 40 Mar 2015: 47.82 20 Feb-2016: 30.32 0 Mar 2016: 38.33 Jul Jul Jul Jan Jan Jan Mar Mar Mar Mar Sep Nov Sep Nov Sep Nov May May May 2013 2014 2015 2016 Government Bond VN-Index Local Gold USD/VND Crude Oil Vietnam may see a high level of public debt at up to 60 percent of gross “ domestic product as the state's budget deficit is expected to expand amid limited collection Asian Development Bank” 8 CBRE | HANOI MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2016 FDI IN THE NEWS FDIs continue to grow into Real Estate Vietnam, Registered FDI, Q1 2016 Major FDI Deals, Q1 2016 17% 1. Samsung to build a USD300 million data center Manufacturing in the Manor Central Park, Hanoi. 5% Real Estate 2. A Taiwanese investor invested USD220 million 6% Art, Entertainment to Tien Giang Province for Paper Manufacturing Company. 72% Others 3. Berjaya Corp. invest USD210.58 million (JV) to open a lottery project. Registered FDI USD4 billion, up 120% y-o-y 4. A Korean investor invested USD171.4 million, for IP infrastructure and shoes wear manufacturing Top FDI Investors, USD million, Q1 2016 company in Can Tho Province. Hong Kong 315 5. Samsung SDI Vietnam increased capital of USD117.6 million. Japan 345 6. Zincox Resources Public Limited Company invested Taiwan 466 USD115million in a steel-dust treatment and recycle company in Ba Ria-Vung Tau. Singapore 554 South Korea 889 9 CBRE | HANOI MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2016 HANOI INFRASTRUCTURE Underpasses / overpasses at key intersections Mai Dich - Nam Thang Long overpass Long Bien steel overpass Hoang Quoc Viet - Buoi overpass Dao Tan - Nguyen Khanh Toan overpass Cau Giay - Lang overpass Nguyen Chanh - Hoang Minh Giam overpass Trung Hoa underpass Thanh Xuan underpass Completed Under construction Under planning Source: CBRE Vietnam. 10 CBRE | HANOI MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2016 HCMC INFRASTRUCTURE 14 projects to start in 2016 An Suong Tunnel Pham Van Dong - 1A Highway Link 4 Underground Parking Projects My Thuy Intersection Binh Tien Bridge Nhi Thien Duong 1 Bridge D3 Road Vo Van Kiet – Trung Luong Link 11 CBRE | HANOI MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2016 HANOI INFRASTRUCTURE Metro lines Line Nhon - Hanoi Railway Station: Land clearance of 4 underground stations to be completed in April 2016 Line Ha Dong - Cat Linh: All pillars are completed. Trial operation to start in December 2016 Source: Baoxaydung.com.vn, Baogiaothong.vn, Cafef.vn, CBRE Vietnam 12 CBRE | HANOI MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2016 HCMC INFRASTRUCTURE Metro line no.1 Elevated section will be ready in 2017 – 45% completed in Q1 2016. Underground section will be ready in Feb 2019 Source: Vnexpress.net, Cafef, REIC, CBRE Vietnam, retrieved March, 2016. 13 CBRE | HANOI MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2016 DASHBOARD – PRODUCED MONTHLY ECONOMIC 2Y 1Y 6M 3M 1M Current BANKING & FINANCE 2Y 1Y 6M 3M 1M Current INDICATORS VN-Index 588.9 551.1 562.6 579.0 559.4 561.2 CPI (%) y-o-y 4.6 0.9 0.7 0.6 1.0 1.3 USD/VND (inter-bank) 21,036 21,458 21,890 21,914 21,914 22,300 Trade balance (0.3) (1.4) (0.2) (0.6) 0.1 (0.1) Local gold (VND mil/tael) 35.8 35.1 33.8 32.5 33.4 33.2 (US$, bil) Lending Rate (%)* 12.8% 8.1% 8.4% 7.6% 7.6% 7.6% Retail & services 233.1 195.9 270.6 294.7 288.0 275.4 Deposit rate (%)** 7.5% 6.4% 6.3% 6.4% 6.4% 6.7% Turnover (VND, tril) (1-year term) Source: GSO, April 1, 2016 Source: GSO, SBV, SJC & HSX, April 1, 2016 REAL ESTATE INDEX 2Y 1Y 6M 3M 1M Current NEW LAUNCHES 2Y 1Y 6M 3M 1M Current Real Estate Holding & HCMC New launches 43,233 30,621 9,815 1,553 3,784 3,404 Development Listed 58.70 46.40 44.20 45.80 44.63 46.47 (unit) Companies Real Estate Services 59.96 56.9 40.3 47.5 35.1 34.07 HN New launches (unit) 30,753 18,809 7,529 1,257 2,459 2,115 Listed Companies Source: Stockbiz, April 1, 2016 Source: CBRE, April 1, 2016 (*) Current lending rate is the average lending rate surveyed at ten banks, and only applicable for home loan. However, the back-dated numbers were the average rate announced publicly at that point of time, applied for all sectors and all banks. The average lending rate is for reference only. (**) Deposit rate is the average deposit rate from a sample comprised of ten banks, in which the rates are announced publicly on their websites and can be tracked backwards. 14 CBRE | HANOI MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2016 BCI NUMBERS Projects under construction, y-o-y change All future projects (2016 – 2030), y-o-y change 2016 YTD vs 2015 2016 YTD vs 2015 300% 300% 200% 200% 100% 100% 0% 0% Percentage change Percentage Percentage change Percentage -100% HCMC Hanoi Da Can Khanh Vung Hai -100% HCMC Hanoi Da Can Khanh Vung Hai Nang Tho Hoa Tau Phong Nang Tho Hoa Tau Phong Projects All Future Da Can Nha Vung Hai Da Can Nha Vung Hai Under HCMC Hanoi Projects HCMC Hanoi Nang Tho Trang Tau Phong Nang Tho Trang Tau Phong Construction (2015-2030) Office 115 96 16 21 4 14 17 Office 195 188 47 30 7 31 35 Retail 68 40 13 4 4 11 5 Retail 112 86 30 5 12 16 9 Hospitality Hospitality 22 13 10 3 8 7 1 33 21 18 3 24 13 5 and SA and SA Residential 189 60 12 5 3 12 6 Residential 287 156 32 10 13 16 10 Total 394 208 51 33 19 44 29 Total 626 454 127 48 54 77 60 Source: www.bciasia.com; CBRE Vietnam, April 2016. Source: www.bciasia.com; CBRE Vietnam, April 2016. 15 CBRE | HANOI MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2016 LEGISLATION NEWS The proposed Amended Circular 36 16 CBRE | HANOI MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2016 LEGISLATION NEWS VND30-trillion Home Loan Program & Future-Formed Project Approvals HCMC Department of Construction (HDC) has just announced 31 projects having been approved to sell the future-formed apartments from 1st Jul 2015 to 28th Mar 2016. The State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) has told commercial banks to stop signing new contracts with customers under the CONDOMINIUM Government-endorsed VND30-trillion home HDC approved 24 projects; 9,854 units loan program from March 31. As the loans pledged within the program have CBRE tracked 66 projects, 32,522 units exceeded VND30 trillion (US$1.34 billion), the central bank has told lender banks to focus on loan disbursements, instead of clinching new deals. … Participating in the home loan program are 19 commercial banks: Agribank, BIDV, Vietcombank, VietinBank, PVcomBank, Eximbank, SHB, TPBank, SCB, NamABank, SeaBank, VPBank, OCB, The VND30 trillion preferential credit package for low- LienVietPostBank, VietBank, VIB, NCB, income homebuyers is officially ending after 36 BaoVietBank and ACB. months. Homebuyers not receiving their funds until According to the SBV, banks have pledged around after June 1 may be in for a shock. Although they will VND30.12 trillion (US$1.3 billion) in loans for still benefit from the soft credit package, they will be 46,246 customers, with over VND21.32 trillion of it subjected to an interest rate at least double the disbursed as of March 10. current preferential rate of 5 per cent per annum. 17 CBRE | HANOI MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2016 RESIDENTIAL 18 CBRE | HANOI MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2016 RESIDENTIAL Rise of New High-end Large-scale Residential Projects in Hanoi Imperia Garden Park 10 (Times City) Vinhomes Gardenia Developer: HBI – M.I.K Developer: Vingroup Developer: Vingroup Scale: 1,652 condos + 42 landed Scale: 600 condominium units Scale: ~2,000 condominium units + houses 363 landed houses The Nassim (a luxury project in HCMC launched in Hanoi) Developer: Hong Kong Land & Son Kim Land Scale: 238 condominium units Sales Event: March 18-19, 2016 19 CBRE | HANOI MARKET INSIGHTS | Q1 2016 RESIDENTIAL Rise of New Luxury Residential Projects in HCMC EMPIRE CITY MADISON THE NASSIM Developer: Tien Phuoc, Keppel Land, Developer: Novaland Developer: Hong Kong Land & Son Kim Gaw Capital and Tran Thai Scale: 115 condos + 72 office-tel units Land Scale: ~3,000 condominium units VIP Preview Event: Saturday, March Scale: 238 condominium units VIP Preview Event: Friday, March 18, 12, 2016 Sales Event: Sunday, March 27, 2016 2016 VINHOMES GOLDEN RIVER Developer: VinGroup ~3,000 condominiums @ US$4,000-$5,000/sm with ~5,000 sales20 brokers Sales Training CBRE Event: | HANOI Tuesday,MARKET INSIGHTS March | Q1 22, 201 20166 Vinhomes Golden River - big wave of HCM, 4000 units with 4500 sales RESIDENTIAL Affordable Fever in HCMC 2007 Fever at The Vista An Phu, District 2 9 VIEW APARTMENT DREAM HOME PALACE Developer: Hung Thinh Corporation Developer: Nha Mo Scale: 690 condo units Scale: 978 condo units Launch Event: Sunday, March 20, 2016 Sales Event: Saturday, Jan 16, 2016 Source: www.google.com, retrieved in March 2016.
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