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The Next Campaign: Cementing Power

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The Next Campaign: Cementing Power MYANMAR MILITARY Inside the military’s plan to retain dominance in the new Myanmar. Is the U.S. too quickly embracing the generals? The next campaign: cementing power BY ANDREW R.C. MARSHALL AND JASON SZEP NAYPYITAW, MYANMAR, NOVEMBER 16 , 2012 YOUNG ELITE: Cadets at the Defense Services Academy now have laptops and internet access, but not human rights training. REUTERS/DAMIR SAGOLJ SPECIAL REPORT 1 MYANMAR MILITARY THE NEXT CAMPAIGN – CEMENTING POWER must be consequences.” Three years later, the United States is rewarding Myanmar’s once- reviled military by granting it observer sta- tus at next year’s Cobra Gold war games in Thailand. The exercises form part of Wash- ington’s strategic “pivot” to Asia to counter the growing influence of China, traditional patron of Myanmar’s former junta. While in Myanmar, Obama is expected to meet both President Thein Sein, a for- mer general, and opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi, the Nobel Peace Prize laure- ate. Obama adviser Samantha Power wrote a post on the White House website last week signaling that Obama would use the trip to pressure Myanmar to do more about FORWARD, MARCH: The military has no plans to cede seats in parliament, Deputy Defense Minister continuing ethnic violence and human- Aung Thaw told Reuters in the brass’s first interview with the foreign media. REUTERS/DAMIR SAGOLJ rights abuses against civilians. “The government and the ethnic na- tionalities need to work together urgently ung Thaw was a teenager when he to find a path to lasting peace that ad- joined Myanmar’s armed forces, dresses minority rights, deals with differ- Awhich seized power in 1962 and ences through dialogue not violence, heals led a promising Asian nation into half a the wounds of the past, and carries reforms century of poverty, isolation and fear. 14%The military’s share of Myanmar’s forward,” she wrote. Now 59, he has a new mission as deputy Aung Din, executive director of the U.S. minister of defense: explaining why the national budget in 2012/13 Campaign for Burma, an advocacy group, military intends to retain a dominant role also urged Obama to meet with “his real in a fragile new era of democratic reform. role in Myanmar’s economy through its counterpart” - meaning Vice Senior Gen- In a two-hour interview with Reuters, holding companies, according to the firms, eral Min Aung Hlaing, Myanmar’s com- the first by a leader of the armed forces which are among the country’s biggest mander-in-chief. with the international media since Myan- commercial enterprises. Myanmar’s emergence from authori- mar’s historic reforms began last year, Aung Aung Thaw’s comments came ahead of tarianism has been compared to the Arab Thaw depicted the military as both archi- Barack Obama’s visit to Myanmar on Nov. Spring, but the trigger wasn’t street pro- tect and guardian of his country’s embry- 19 - the first by a serving U.S. president to tests. The opening was stage-managed by onic democracy. the country also known as Burma. retired generals such as Thein Sein, whose That’s why the military has no plans to The generals’ reluctance to loosen their dramatic reforms cleared the way for an en- give up its presence in parliament, he said, grip on power and acknowledge past abuses gagement with the West and a suspension where its unelected delegates occupy a raises fundamental questions for this strate- in sanctions. A government now dominat- quarter of the seats. Nor will the military gic country at Asia’s crossroads: Can Myan- ed by former generals has begun repairing a apologize for its violent suppressions of mar be reborn after decades of dictatorship dysfunctional economy with foreign exper- pro-democracy protests in 1988 and 2007 without the military itself also undergoing tise and investment. that led to crippling Western sanctions. profound change? And is the United States Since taking power in March 2011, “The government is leading the democ- too quickly embracing the generals? Thein Sein’s quasi-civilian government ratization,” said Aung Thaw. “The Defense “When there is genocide in Darfur,” has relaxed censorship, allowed street pro- Services are pro-actively participating in said President Obama in his Nobel Peace tests and held a by-election that put Suu the process.” Prize acceptance speech in 2009, “systematic Kyi into parliament. In return, the West The military will also retain a leading rape in Congo, repression in Burma - there has suspended most sanctions, while Japan SPECIAL REPORT 2 MYANMAR MILITARY THE NEXT CAMPAIGN – CEMENTING POWER Big spenders Myanmar’s military expenditure is modest by Southeast Asian standards but rivals Israel and Saudi Arabia as a percentage of GDP DEFENCE EXPENDITURES 2011 TROOP SIZES 2011 TOP 10 DEFENCE BUDGETS Southeast Asia regional breakdown Thousands Percentage of GDP* Singapore 29.40% Vietnam Saudi Arabia MYANMAR Cambodia 0.91% Myanmar Oman MILITARY 2011 Israel Vietnam 8.10% Thailand Yemen ARMY Indonesia Brunei 1.23% U.S. 375,000 Philippines Myanmar 6.21% Jordan NAVY Cambodia Indonesia 16.40% Algeria 16,000 Malaysia Iraq Philippines 7.13% AIR FORCE Singapore Myanmar Malaysia 13.82% 15,000 Laos Armenia Thailand 16.79% 0100 200 300 400 500 0246810 * Only includes countries for which sufficient comparable data is available. Source: The Military Balance 2012 has promised up to $21 billion in aid and Myanmar’s army is called the Tatmadaw, situation. Everybody suffered, including investment. Foreign investors are pouring or “Royal Force,” a phrase evoking the age our armed forces.” into one of the world’s last frontier markets. of Burmese warrior kings. Its modern ver- The military was “the only strong institu- The military, however, has remained sion was founded by General Aung San, tion left in that chaotic situation to maintain practically a law unto itself, its power and the independence hero and father of Aung law and order,” he said. “At the time, we had privileges enshrined in a 2008 constitution San Suu Kyi, who led his troops against no other option. We tried to restore law and drafted by the former junta. Fears persist both British and Japanese occupiers. order to protect the civilian population.” that hardliners may emerge to stall or roll Respect for the Tatmadaw began to fade And the population was grateful, he back the reforms. in 1962, when the late dictator General insists. “If you were in this country at that The generals have long insisted the re- Ne Win seized power and ushered in the defining moment, you would hear (this) forms were the culmination of their “road- catastrophic “Burmese Way to Socialism.” sound”, he said, emitting an audible sigh map to democracy” announced nearly a A nationwide pro-democracy uprising that of relief. “Because everybody felt insecure, decade ago. Diplomats here cite other pres- began in 1988 was so brutally repressed it even in their own homes.” sures, including fears of economic collapse scarred the nation’s psyche. Thousands were Kyaw Min Yu recalls it differently. Bet- and further popular unrest, growing unease killed or injured when troops opened fire ter known as Ko (“Brother”) Jimmy, he was over China’s dominance, and a desire to on unarmed protesters. Hundreds more protesting with other students in March shrug off Myanmar’s pariah status in an in- were jailed, including Suu Kyi, who spent 1988 by Inya Lake in the main city of Yan- creasingly connected Southeast Asia. 15 of the next 21 years under house arrest. gon when security forces attacked. Scores of The military is showing some signs of The savagery provoked global outrage students were shot dead or drowned. Later, change. Deadly sectarian violence in Rakh- and led the United States and Europe to he said, he saw a soldier stab a schoolgirl ine State in October was a major test for impose sanctions. Some military officers re- with a bayonet. government troops, who showed restraint main on visa blacklists in Western countries. “I’ll never understand why they were so in policing the unrest between ethnic Ra- In the interview, deputy defense minis- cruel to us students, who were about the same khine Buddhists and Rohingya Muslims. ter Aung Thaw described 1988 as a “very, age as their sons and daughters,” said Ko Jim- Ethnic insurgencies rage elsewhere very sad memory for us”. Military inter- my, who spent 20 years as a political prisoner along Myanmar’s borderlands, where bat- vention was necessary to halt nationwide and is today a leading political activist. tle-hardened soldiers have committed their anarchy that threatened to “forever” change Shaken by the 1988 protests in the cit- worst abuses and, in northern Kachin State, Myanmar’s borders, he said. “In 1988, the ies, and embroiled in conflict with ethnic commit them still, say human rights groups reality is the whole country was in a chaotic insurgent groups in border regions, the SPECIAL REPORT 3 MYANMAR MILITARY THE NEXT CAMPAIGN – CEMENTING POWER military expanded. By 1995, its ranks had almost doubled to about 350,000, accord- The military’s telling ing to Myanmar military scholar Andrew Selth of the Griffith Asia Institute in Bris- bane, Australia. When Buddhist monks led monument to itself pro-democracy protests in 2007, the mili- tary was able to snuff them out easily. The military’s refusal to acknowledge the suffering it caused is part of a deep-rooted Colossal and largely deserted, the Defense Shwe. He has disappeared from public life amid arrogance that undermines hopes for recon- Services Museum is a lavish monument to rumors of serious illness, but appears in photos ciliation, said Ko Jimmy.
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