CIVIL - MILITARY FUSION CENT RE

Afghanistan Review Week 01 04 January 2012 Comprehensive Information on Complex Crises

This document provides a weekly overview of developments in from 13 December 2011—03 INSIDE THIS ISSUE January 2012, with hyper-links to source material highlighted in blue and underlined in the text. For Economic Development more information on the topics below or other issues pertaining to events in Afghanistan, contact the Governance & Rule of Law members of the Afghanistan Team, or visit our website at www.cimicweb.org. Humanitarian Affairs Infrastructure

Security & Force Protection Socio-Cultural Development Economic Development Steven A. Zyck ► [email protected]

akistani authorities have interrupted several hundred containers being imported into DISCLAIMER Afghanistan via by Afghan traders over the past five weeks, says Pajhwok

Afghan News. The containers are intended for the Afghan private sector, though The Civil-Military Fusion Centre P Pakistani officials have refused to let them cross into Afghanistan due to concerns that the (CFC) is an information and materials in the containers may be intended for NATO’s International Security Assistance knowledge management Force (ISAF). As the Associated Press notes, Pakistani authorities closed border crossings to organisation focused on improving civil-military interaction, facilitating NATO supplies following a NATO airstrike which killed 24 Pakistani soldiers in late information sharing and enhancing November. Traders told Pajhwok that the Pakistani restrictions have not only hindered NATO situational awareness through the supplies but have also stemmed the flow of non-NATO materials being imported by Afghan CimicWeb portal and our weekly businesspeople. For instance, approximately USD 100 million worth of perishable food, and monthly publications. particularly meat, being imported into Afghanistan has been stranded at the Afghanistan- Pakistan border for weeks. Representatives of Afghanistan’s private sector are reportedly CFC products are based upon and calling on President and the Ministry of Commerce and Industries (MoCI) to do link to open-source information more to resolve the situation. from a wide variety of organisations, research centres and media sources. The Daily Times, a Pakistani newspaper, reported a significant change in policy regarding oil However, the CFC does not endorse exports from Pakistan to Afghanistan. The Pakistani cabinet’s Economic Coordination and cannot necessarily guarantee Committee (ECC) announced that it would remove all tax exemptions, rebates and other the accuracy or objectivity of these special conditions which had previously been applied to petroleum, oil and lubricant (POL) sources. products being exported from Pakistan to Afghanistan as well as to the Central Asian republics. This decision will be implemented by Pakistan’s Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) CFC publications are and Ministry of Commerce (MoC). Pakistani refineries have also been ordered not to send any independently produced by domestically-processed POL products to or through Afghanistan. Only POL products imported Knowledge Managers and do into Pakistan specifically for Afghanistan or Central Asia can move onward after paying the not reflect NATO or ISAF newly imposed taxes and fees. Previously, such taxes and fees had not applied due to trade policies or positions of any other agreements between Pakistan and Afghanistan. organisation. On 28 December, Reuters reported that the Afghan government has signed its first major oil The CFC is part of NATO Allied deal in decades. The deal was signed with the China National Petroleum Company (CNPC), a Command Operations. Chinese state-owned firm. Under the agreement, CNPC will drill an 87-million-barrel deposit in the Amu Darya basin in northern Afghanistan. The deposit spans Faryab and Sar-e Pul provinces and is relatively small in size, though Afghanistan’s Minister of Mines indicates that it could generate USD 7 billion for the Afghan government over the course of the coming 23 years. CNPC announced that it would have its experts and equipment arrive in northern Afghanistan within 30 days of signing the agreement.

CONTACT THE CFC In related news, Afghan government revenues from the mining sector increased 257% relative For further information, contact: to a year prior, says Tolo News. Given that extraction has not yet begun at major mines, particularly the Aynak copper mine, Tolo News says that much of this increase is due to Afghanistan Team Leader progress at small and medium-sized mines. [email protected]

Bloomberg, citing ’s Islamic Republic News Agency (IRNA), says that trade between Iran The Afghanistan Team and Afghanistan reached USD 2 billion in 2011. This figure was first announced by the Iranian [email protected]

Minister of Industries, Mines and Commerce, Mehdi Ghazanfari. The IRNA article indicates that Iranian exports to Afghanistan had increased by 30% over the course of the preceding year. This amount may increase further following an agreement signed between Iran and Afghanistan in late December, says Tolo News. Under the agreement, Afghanistan will import one million tonnes of fuel annually from Iran.

With regard to counter-narcotics and alternative livelihood efforts, The New York Times reports that initial progress in the Helmand River Valley is rapidly deteriorating. Despite significant international and Afghan government efforts to eradicate poppies and promote licit crops such as wheat, fruits and vegetables within the valley, Afghan farmers interested in growing opium poppies have reportedly re-located to marginal, desert-like lands. These farmers have transformed the land in these areas to sustain poppies, thus undercutting counter-narcotics gains in recent years. Farmers reportedly prefer cultivating poppies, which affords them protection from the and is a far more stable crop; while prices fluctuate, there is no difficulty – as with wheat, cotton or vegetables – in processing or selling the crop. Afghan farmers predict that poppy production will increase further in the coming years, having already risen between 2010 and 2011. Afghanistan’s Central Bank governor, Noorullah Delawari, told the Associated Press that the Afghan government would be able to recover 80% of the USD 825 million it spent in bailing out Bank. While only USD 80 million has been recovered thus far, Delawari expects another 20% of the outstanding loans to be repaid relatively soon; another 60% is anticipated to be recovered over the coming five years. Kabul Bank nearly collapsed after its owners, executives and large borrowers operated what the International Monetary Fund (IMF) labelled a “Ponzi scheme”. As part of its efforts to recover the funds, the Central Bank is sending a delegation to Dubai, where those complicit in the Kabul Bank crisis kept assets and invested in risky real estate projects.

DECEMBER 2011 BONN CONFERENCE PAGE ON CIMICWEB

The Civil-Military Fusion Centre (CFC) developed a unique web page focused upon the Second International Bonn Conference on Afghanistan at its CimicWeb portal. While the conference is now complete, this page continues to feature open-source information from relevant organisations and think tanks alongside a chronological listing of documents from past events such as the July 2010 Kabul Conference on Afghanistan. It also includes documents which emerged during the course of the Second Bonn Conference itself. For further information on this page, contact the CFC at [email protected].

Governance & Rule of Law Steven A. Zyck ► [email protected]

n 03 January, Tolo News reported that the Taliban had agreed to establish a political office in Qatar in order to engage in negotiations with the international community. A Taliban statement quoted by Tolo News said that “we agree to have an O office to negotiate with international community. So, we have reached preliminary agreements with Qatar and other countries.” This move by the Taliban follows what The Guardian describes as months of secret negotiations and confidence-building measures. The Afghan government had preferred that the Taliban establish its political office in either Turkey or Saudi Arabia, says The Guardian, though President Hamid Karzai indicated in late December that his government would not object to a Taliban office in Qatar. Western diplomats cited by The Guardian indicated that having a Taliban office in Qatar would make it more difficult for Pakistan to influence the course of negotiations between the Taliban, the Afghan government and the international community. Taliban spokesman Zabiullah Mujahid did not specify when the political office would be established, says The New York Times. He did, however, link the SUBMIT A REQUEST establishment of the political office with a request that the United States release FOR INFORMATION (RFI) Taliban prisoners detained in Guantanamo Bay, Cuba. The Afghan government is currently in the process of identifying nine CimicWeb account holders can submit candidates to serve five-year terms with the Afghanistan Independent Human RFIs to the CFC. These may concern the Rights Commission (AIHRC), reports Tolo News. The terms of nine outgoing sectors addressed in this newsletter or commissioners expired on 16 December. Another two AIHRC commissioners, other topics relevant to Afghanistan or Nader Naderi and Fahim Hakim, had been dismissed by President Karzai in our other focus areas. To submit an RFI, fill out the request form by clicking here. December. The urged the Afghan government to appoint well qualified commissioners to the AIHRC and to consult civil society Have a colleague who is interested in organisations in identifying potential candidates. submitting an RFI? Tell them to request a CimicWeb account by clicking here. A procurement manager for the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) in Jalalabad in eastern Afghanistan has been arrested

04 January 2012 Page 2 for allegedly requesting a USD 5,000 bribe, according to Tolo News. The procurement manager was tasked with purchasing a piece of equipment for a local man, though he told the intended beneficiary that he would only turn over the equipment if he received a bribe. T he USAID staff member was caught by what Tolo News describes as “US special prosecutors” and handed over to Afghan authorities.

The US government issued a report in mid-December which found that members of the Afghan Local Police (ALP) were responsible for killings, rapes, arbitrary detentions and illegal land seizures, says The Washington Post. This report came shortly after US military officials announced plans to triple the size of the ALP from its current 10,000 members. ALP units, which are trained by US Special Forces, have reportedly provoked a debate. Some feel that they are crucial to security in Afghanistan while others have described them as militias that foster insecurity and criminality. For further information on this topic, see the July 2011 CFC report entitled “Village Defence: The Afghan Local Police”. President Karzai, according to the Agence France-Presse, urged Pakistan not to consider the United States or India when establishing its policies towards Afghanistan. “We want Pakistan to have an independent policy towards Afghanistan. It should not look at Afghanistan based on its relations with India and America. Pakistan should approach us as its neighbour,” President Karzai reportedly stated.

Humanitarian Affairs Matthew Hall ► [email protected]

ccording to Khaama Press, an Afghan media outlet, the Iranian government has “provided an ultimatum” to 900,000 Afghans illegally living in Iran. The article cites an official with the Iranian Ministry of Interior Affairs as saying that Afghan A in Iran will be allowed three months to leave the country after their cards expire. Those who do not comply will reportedly face expulsion. Pajhwok Afghan News reports that, in response, the spokesman for Afghanistan’s Ministry of Refugees and Repatriation (MoRR) said there is insufficient funding to facilitate the return of those Afghans being expelled from Iran. The United Nations High Commission for Refugees (UNHCR) said it would assist the returnees if needed. The situation is subject to contradictory reports. For instance, a Pajhwok article cites a spokesman for Afghanistan’s MoRR as denying that any refugees were being expelled from Iran. The spokesman insisted that no Afghan refugees would be forcibly expelled but that Afghans in Iran were, instead, being asked to visit Afghanistan and determine whether it was sufficiently safe for them to return to their communities of origin. Several news articles discussed food assistance efforts in Afghanistan. Pajhwok says distribution of emergency winter aid to 1,000 displaced families has begun in Lashkar Gah, the capital of Helmand province. The aid, consisting of winter clothing, blankets, tarpaulins and USD 26 for fuel is being provided by UNHCR. UNHCR officials said that more than 200,000 Afghans would receive winter assistance and that the supplies have already been purchased and pre-positioned. Pajhwok says that hundreds of poor families in Kunar and Paktika provinces have received food aid. According to an official from the Kunar branch of the Afghan Red Crescent Society (ARCS), packages consisted of 90 kg of food were provided to 200 recipients. In Paktika, 6,571 flood victims and internally displaced persons (IDPs) have begun receiving food items donated by the World Food Programme (WFP) and distributed with support from the Afghanistan National Disaster Management Authority (ANDMA). Some IDPs in Balkh province say they are not receiving winter assistance, contrary to statements by government officials and international organisations, according to Pajhwok. The Director of Refugee and Repatriation in Balkh, Abdul Saboor Qadri, said that foreign agencies such UNHCR and the World Food Programme (WFP) had already provided winter assistance packages consisting of blankets, food items, plastic sheets and “dinner sets” to almost 2,000 households. IDPs in the province, however, said the assistance had reached only 163 out of 480 families who had fled from the Albarz Mountains to the Deh Dadi district of Balkh due to drought. Bakhtar News Agency reports that 960 families in Logar province affected by flooding have received assistance from the provincial Disaster Management Department. The assistance packages consisted of rice, ghee (clarified butter), pulses, tea, salt, beans and sugar. The floods had resulted in the deaths of many cattle as well as the destruction of hundreds of houses and large swaths of agricultural land. Heavy snowfall has blocked roads into 12 different districts in Badakhshan province, as detailed by Bakhtar. According to officials cited in the article, efforts are underway to unblock the roads, which would allow for humanitarian assistance from Tajikistan to resume.

Infrastructure Rainer Gonzalez ► [email protected]

he Italian government has committed a USD 240 million long-term loan to fund the renovation and standardisation of the main airport in Herat province, reports Tolo News. In addition to the renovation and expansion of the Herat airport, which is the T second busiest airport in the country, Italy will support the construction of a new and modern terminal building. Likewise, Afghan Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) says that Afghanistan and China signed a technical cooperation grant worth USD 23.5 million. Since 2001, China has reportedly provided a total of USD 200 million for reconstruction projects in Afghanistan.

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Furthermore, Poland pledged USD 7 million for infrastructure development projects, according to Pajhwok Afghan News. These funds will be allocated through the Polish Provincial Reconstruction Team (PRT) in Ghazni province. The majority of the USD 7 million will be invested in Ghazni city, which has been named the 2013 Centre of Islamic Culture.

The United Arab Emirates (UAE) and the United Kingdom signed an agreement to build a new and critical highway in Afghanistan, reports Outlook Afghanistan. The project was described as “a demonstration of the UAE and UK’s commitment to peace and stability in Afghanistan” by the UAE’s Minister of Foreign Affairs. Details regarding the highway’s route, cost or timetable have not yet been released. In other news, the Afghan Ministry of Mines (MoM) announced that Afghanistan and Turkmenistan have agreed upon the price of gas and transit fare for natural gas to be transported via the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) pipeline, reports Tolo News. The quantity and price of gas being provided to and through Afghanistan have not been yet disclosed, though the MoM has indicated that the agreement will be signed soon in Ashgabat. According to Pajwhok, the MoM has announced that the feasibility study of the TAPI project has been completed and that the project’s design phase will be completed in 2012. One year after the track was laid, Afghanistan ran its first test train from Mazar-e Sharif to the Uzbek border town of Hairatan, reports Al Arabiya News. During the first run, track and signals were tested, and the new infrastructure is ready to be inaugurated by Afghan President Hamid Karzai. The Afghan government expects this stretch of railway to precipitate the development of a comprehensive national network to transport the country’s mineral reserves, which are estimated to be worth up to USD 3 billion. The railway will reportedly also reduce Afghanistan’s dependence on transit routes via Pakistan. Officials have already announced that Afghan and Turkmen governments are in negotiations to clear the second phase of the project, which will link Mazar-e Sharif in Afghanistan and Andkhoi in Turkmenistan. Such a route, anticipated to be completed in two years, would provide a new link between Afghanistan and the Caspian Sea. Finally, the Afghanistan Chamber of Commerce and Industries (ACCI) spoke out against the Afghan government’s new aviation policy, which will allow more foreign airlines to operate out of Kabul International Airport, reports Outlook Afghanistan. Currently, ten international and three Afghan airlines are operating in Afghanistan. The ACCI claim that increased competition from international airlines could undermine the national airlines, which employ approximately 1,800 people.

Security & Force Protection Mark Checchia ► [email protected]

ewer American and NATO troops were killed in Afghanistan in 2011 than in 2010, reports The Los Angeles Times. American military fatalities declined from 499 to 417, while NATO fatalities – which include Americans – fell from 711 to 565. F International forces attribute the decline in fatalities to the counterinsurgency campaign. NATO officials told The Los Angeles Times that, in response to insurgent attacks near the Afghanistan-Pakistan border, 2012 will see a new focus upon counter-insurgency in eastern Afghanistan. According to The New York Times, Afghan President Hamid Karzai ordered the disbanding of the Critical Infrastructure Police (CIP) in at least four northern provinces. This force was instituted in August 2011 by Regional Command-North of NATO’s International Security Assistance Force (ISAF). The CIP was originally established to provide security for major infrastructure projects and facilities while also reigning in militia groups operating in parts of northern Afghanistan. The force is active in Balkh, Kunduz, Jowzjan and Faryab provinces.1 Shaida Abdali, Afghanistan’s deputy national security advisor, said the Afghan government will not tolerate forces which pose a threat to future security. “We don’t want a force that is likely to be out of control. We don’t want a force that will become a future security threat,” Abdali told The New York Times. The Associated Press, citing a statement from the office of French President Nicolas Sarkozy, reports that a man in an Afghan National Army (ANA) uniform opened fire on 29 December and killed two French Foreign Legionnaires in Kapisa province. The Taliban claimed responsibility for the attack. According to CNN, French Defence Minister Gerard Longuet described the attack as an “isolated incident” and said that it would not affect the planned transition of security responsibility in Afghanistan from international to Afghan government forces. A suicide bomber rushed to the front of a funeral service being held for a tribal elder in Takhar province on 25 December and detonated a bomb, killing as many as 20 people. The dead included 10 tribal elders and Abdul Mutaleb Baik, a member of parliament who was a prominent commander of anti-Taliban forces during the 1990s, Pajhwok Afghan News reported. An estimated 55 people were also injured in the attack. No group claimed responsibility. Violence in Takhar had been rare until 2011. Five Polish soldiers died on 21 December when their vehicle hit a mine in Ghazni province, according to The News, a Polish newspaper. The vehicle was one of six in a convoy involved in a mission for the Provincial Reconstruction Team (PRT) in Ghazni. The Taliban have claimed responsibility for the attack. “This is a great tragedy and very sad news for the Polish military, for the whole of Poland and above all for the families of the victims,” Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk stated.

1 President Karzai’s disbandment order, released on 25 December, suggested that the force may also operate in Sar-e-Pul province.

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The Agence France-Presse (AFP) reports that, on 18 December, a man tossed at least two grenades at a police pick-up truck in a market in Khost city before fleeing the area. A police official said at least 20 people were wounded in the Khost city market, but there were no fatalities. Grenade attacks have not been common, but this was the second such incident targeting police in 48 hours. No group has claimed responsibility for the incident.

According to the AFP, ISAF Spokesman Brigadier General Carsten Jacobson stated that Afghan special forces would increasingly take the lead during night raids. President Hamid Karzai voiced renewed concern about this tactic after a night raid on 17 December resulted in the death of the pregnant wife of the provincial counter-narcotics chief in Paktiya province. A separate AFP article quotes General Jacobson stating that Afghan and NATO forces seized an “incredible” amount of illicit drugs in Afghanistan in 2011, thus striking a potentially significant blow to the insurgency’s finances. While General Jacobson did not specify the amounts of drugs which were seized, he did announce that opium seizures rose 13% and that hashish seizures climbed 59%. The amount of marijuana confiscated increased by 1,208%. He further noted that “[c]ounter-narcotics operations are successfully disrupting the insurgents’ ability to process opium into heroin.” Georgia’s parliament voted to approve sending an additional infantry battalion to Afghanistan, reports Azerbaijan’s Trend news agency. Georgia currently has 936 soldiers serving as part of NATO ISAF. The approval of an additional battalion, comprising up to 750 soldiers, will make Georgia the largest non-NATO contributor to ISAF. Australia now has the largest non-NATO contingent of about 1,550 troops. Georgia has lost ten soldiers in Afghanistan, all within Helmand province. The Canadian armed forces are involved in moulding the ANA into an effective fighting force, The Globe and Mail reports. The article notes several challenges faced by the Canadian forces during this mission, one being a high desertion rate and significant combat losses. “Building this army is like pouring water in a sieve,” said Chris Mason, a senior research fellow at the Naval Postgraduate School in Monterey, California, who helped with the establishment of the ANA. “By their own numbers, [the ANA is] losing almost half the army to attrition every 12 months.”

Socio-Cultural Development Matthew Hall ► [email protected]

gence France-Presse reported on 02 January a 15-year-old Afghan girl is recovering in the hospital after being severely tortured by her husband’s family. The girl was sold to her husband by her brother for USD 5,000 and subsequently locked up A and tortured by her in-laws, who attempted to force her into prostitution. The article states three people responsible for the torture, including the girl’s mother-in-law, were arrested for the crime, which the Afghan Minister of Public Health (MoPH) says is indicative of growing violence against women in the country. The New York Times reported that police are searching for her husband, a 30-year-old soldier in the Afghan National Army (ANA). Afghan President Hamid Karzai reacted strongly to the news, insisting the case be investigated and those responsible for her torture held accountable. The Governor of Baghlan province, where the crime took place, described the girl’s torture as “an un-Islamic and inhuman act” and indicated that an investigation is underway. Deputy Minister of Higher Education (MoHE) Bari Siddiqui announced that almost 150,000 Afghan students will take the higher education entry test this year, reports Pajhwok Afghan News. The 34,460 test-takers with the best results would be enrolled in universities. The next 60,000 students will be offered entry into “semi-higher institutions”. Siddiqui said that five new higher education institutions are scheduled to be built in 2012 and that 20 new faculties and 50 departments will be added to existing institutions. Several media reports emerged regarding the construction of new schools and the rehabilitation of existing schools. A new public university in Logar province is to be built using revenue from the Ainak copper mine, according to Provincial Council Chief Abdul Wali Wakil, says Pajhwok. The provincial governor said construction would start next year and would cost USD 2 million. Two newly-constructed school buildings were inaugurated in Logar, according to Bakhtar. The construction cost approximately USD 145,000. Prior to completion of the buildings, students at the two schools had to study under tents. According to Ministry of Education (MoE) figures cited in the article, 23 of Logar’s 222 schools have no classrooms. Pajhwok says six school buildings and a madrassa in the Syedkhel district of Parwan province have been reconstructed and provided with new equipment. The Japanese-funded project took six months to complete and cost USD 700,000. According to officials, the initiative will benefit more than 7,000 students. The foundations of two new school buildings – one primary school and one girls’ middle school – in Zabul province have been laid. Both schools are in the capital city of Qalat, as reported by Bakhtar. Finally, Pajhwok reports thirteen schools in the Nava and Zankhan districts of Ghazni province were closed during 2011. According to the provincial education director, progress has been made in opening schools in this volatile location. For instance, 71 schools that had been closed during 2011 due to insecurity, a shortage of students and other factors were now open. The Ministry of Public Health (MoPH) marked National Health Worker day on 18 December, according to Bakhtar. Minister of Public Health Suraya Dalil praised the work of volunteers in the health sector and said this year’s goal would be to provide in- home first aid support. In related news, 20 midwives in Nimroz province were awarded certificates after successfully completing a two-year training programme, says Pajhwok. The graduates will be employed in district and village clinics and the Nimroz Civil

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Hospital, according to a local official cited in the article. He added that more training programmes would be implemented in the province to help address the shortage of trained midwives.

According to Pajhwok, Deputy Minister of Information and Culture Mubarez Rashidi said that the media in Afghanistan have been greatly strengthened over the last decade. Rashidi said that since the fall of the Taliban, the number of visual, audio and print media outlets in Afghanistan has risen from almost none to 1,400.

Recent Readings & Resources

. “Health and : 10 Years After – Quantity Not Quality”, Agency Coordinating Body for Afghanistan Relief, November 201. . “Explaining Support for Combatants during Wartime: A Survey Experiment in Afghanistan”, Princeton University, December 2011, Lyall, Jason, Kosuke Imai and Graeme Blair. . “UN Integration and Humanitarian Space”, Overseas Development Institute, December 2011, Metcalfe, Vicki, Alison Giffen and Samir Elhawary. . “Traditional Dispute Resolution and Afghanistan’s Women”, United States Institute of Peace, December 2011, Sinha, Sylvana Q.

The readings and resources above were brought to the attention of the CFC’s Afghanistan Team during the course of the past two weeks. The CFC does not endorse any of these documents or their content. If you would like to recommend a report or website for this section of the “Afghanistan Review”, please send the file or reference to [email protected]. The CFC welcomes all recommendations but is not obliged to print them.

Afghanistan Events Calendar

. Agricultural Development for Afghanistan Pre-Deployment Training. The United States Department of Agriculture (www.usda.gov) and a consortium of American universities deliver this training. The curriculum will meet the needs of all deploying United States Government personnel in support of the USG Agriculture Strategy in Afghanistan. The training is for United States Government personnel and will take place in Fresno, California on the following dates: 16-21 JAN, 23-28 JAN, 26-31 MAR, 02-07 APR and 18-23 JUN. Participants will be enrolled on a first come first serve basis. Contact Ryan Brewster, US Department of Agriculture, at [email protected] for further information.

If you are a CFC account-holder and would like your notice to appear here, please send all relevant details to [email protected]. The CFC is not obliged to print any notice that it receives, and the CFC retains the right to revise notices for clarity and appropriateness. Any notices submitted for publication in the “Afghanistan Review” newsletter should be relevant to Afghanistan and to the CFC’s mission as a knowledge management and information sharing institution.

ENGAGE WITH US Civil-Military Fusion Centre (CFC) [email protected] www.cimicweb.org

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