World Affairs Councils Leadership Delegation to The Islamic Republic of

March 24 – March 31, 2012

Our Thanks

The delegation gratefully acknowledges the generous support of Ambassador Ryan C. Crocker, without whom this trip would not have occurred. He gave very generously of his time, of which, while there, we quickly learned he has precious little.

We also would like to thank his Public Affairs team, particularly Eileen O’Connor, Donna Welton, and Antoinette Hurtado, who also were more than generous with their time and expertise, as well as the support of the State Department and its Bureau of International Information Programs.

Our delegation is also grateful to President , who warmly welcomed us to his Palace. We appreciate his hospitality and candor during our briefing with him. We would also like to acknowledge the many Afghans in the public and private sectors who met us for a very candid exchange of views, accomplishments, challenges and aspirations.

Finally, publication of this Trip Report would not have been possible without the generous underwriting of the World Affairs Council of Dallas/Fort Worth and particularly the time and talent of Martha Powell, Director of Administration. The printing of this report was generously donated by Hunt Consolidated, Inc.

A Red Sox fan in . Ambassador Ryan Crocker with Mimi Gregory.

Support of this mission was provided by the U.S. Department of State's Bureau of International Information Programs

Contents

Purpose of Mission ...... 1 Delegates ...... 2 Delegation Itinerary ...... 3 Overview ...... 4 Overview ...... 5 Meeting with Director of Communications & Public Diplomacy Eileen O’Connor and Public Affairs Counselor Donna Welton ...... 7 Meeting with Ambassador Ryan C. Crocker ...... 8 Meeting with Acting Political Counselor Geoff Odlum ...... 10 Meeting with USAID Senior Deputy Mission Director Dr. Jeff Ashley ...... 12 Meeting with Aga Khan Trust for Culture CEO Ajmal Maiwandi ...... 14 Meeting with Minister of Public Health Suraya Dalil ...... 15 Meeting with Abdul Rassoul Sayyaf, Member of Parliament and Head of the Wolesi Jirga’s International Affairs Committee ...... 17 Meeting with Economic Counselor David Renz ...... 19 Meeting with Senior Deputy Coordinating Director for Development and Economic Affairs Greg Burton and Deputy Director Peggy Walker ...... 21 Meeting at the the American University of Afghanistan with the American Chamber of Commerce in Afghanistan ...... 24 Meeting with Members of Parliament ...... 26 Meeting with Deputy Minister of Finance for Policy Shafiq Qarizada ...... 27 Meeting with Deputy Minister of Agriculture Abdul Ghani Ghuriani ...... 29 Shura with Young Program Alumni hosted by Ambassador Crocker ...... 32 Roundtable Discussion with Afghan Media Owners & Publishers on Freedom of the Press/Development of the Media ...... 34 Meeting with Assistance Mission in Afghanistan Special Representative Ján Kubiš ...... 36 Reception for Women of Courage ...... 37 Meeting with Opposition Leader Hanif Atmar ...... 39 Meeting with Ambassador Stephen G. McFarland and Brigadier General Dixie Morrow on Rule of Law . 41 Meeting with Commander of the International Security Assistance Force General John R. Allen ...... 43 Meeting with Minister of Mines Waheedullah Shahrani ...... 44 Meeting with Minister of Education Ghulam Farooq Wardak ...... 47 Meeting with President Hamid Karzai at the Presidential Palace ...... 49

Farewell ...... 52 APPENDIX ...... 54 ACRONYMS and GLOSSARY ...... 55

Purpose of Mission

The first World Affairs Council, the Foreign Policy Association, was founded in New York City in 1918 by a small group of individuals who were concerned that America would choose an isolationist foreign policy over one of engagement. Therefore, they began a process to engage grassroots citizen involvement and education in international affairs. Over time, independent world affairs councils were established in most major American cities. Today there are 92 councils operating in 40 states.

The general mission of World Affairs Councils is to educate and engage grassroots Americans on key critical global issues and international affairs in general. All WAC’s are nonprofit and nonpartisan, meaning that they do not endorse any political party or position.

LEADERSHIP DELEGATIONS

A leadership delegation is an overseas fact-finding visit to a city, country, or international organization by members of representative World Affairs Councils. Six individual councils conducted this leadership delegation to Afghanistan.

The purpose of leadership delegations

The main purposes are to get to know the people, the issues, and the accomplishments of a particular country on a first-hand basis by meeting with a country’s leaders, citizens, public- and private-sector representatives, as well as to gain an understanding of that country’s cultural heritage. This is best done outside the prism of American media or official reports, by meeting directly with a country’s own citizens and leaders – a true mission of people-to-people diplomacy.

The benefits of leadership delegations

Each delegation publishes a trip report about its various meetings, reflecting what the council representatives have learned during their visit. This report is disseminated to councils, to the U.S. Department of State, and to the individuals and government of the host country. It is also accessible through the participating councils’ website.

Following a leadership visit, members of the delegation hold media events and present programs in their communities to inform their members of their findings. The councils often host guest speakers from the visited country to the United States to continue the process of engagement on various levels, including potential business contacts and networking.

The ripple effect of a leadership delegation visit often produces joint projects, conferences, professional exchanges, speakers’ visits to the United States, intern exchanges, and publications, among other outreach activities.

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Delegates

MARIA ZAMMIT Delegation Leader Past President and Board Member World Affairs Council of Greater Hampton Roads Virginia Beach/Norfolk, Virginia

LAURA DUPUY Executive Director Utah Council for Citizen Diplomacy Salt Lake City, Utah

JAMES N. FALK President and CEO World Affairs Council of Dallas/Fort Worth Dallas, Texas

KEN R. FURST Past President and Board Member World Affairs Council of Western Massachusetts Springfield, Massachusetts

MIMI GREGORY Past President and Board Member Naples Council on World Affairs Naples, Florida

LJUBOMIR (L.J.) STAMBUK President World Affairs Council of Charlotte Charlotte, North Carolina

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Delegation Itinerary

Sunday, March 25

0830 Head of Delegation Maria Zammit introduction at the Embassy’s Country Team meeting 1400 Meeting with Director of Communications & Public Diplomacy Eileen O’Connor and Public Affairs Counselor Donna Welton 1500 Meeting with Ambassador Ryan C. Crocker 1600 Meeting with Acting Political Counselor Geoff Odlum 1700 Meeting with USAID Senior Deputy Mission Director Jeff Ashley

Monday, March 26

1100 Meeting and lunch with Aga Khan Trust for Culture CEO Ajmal Maiwandi 1300 Tour of Babur Gardens 1430 Meeting with Minister of Public Health Suraya Dalil 1600 Meeting with Abdul Rassoul Sayyaf (Member of Parliament and Head of the Wolesi Jirga’s International Affairs Committee)

Tuesday, March 27

0900 Meeting with Economic Counselor David Renz 1000 Meeting with Senior Deputy Coordinating Director for Development and Economic Affairs Greg Burton and Dep. Coordinating Director Peggy Walker on Kabul Bank and the Road to Tokyo 1200 Meeting with the American Chamber of Commerce in Afghanistan Board and the American University of Afghanistan 1400 Meeting with Members of Parliament

Wednesday, March 28

0900 Meeting with Deputy Minister of Finance for Policy Shafiq Qarizada 1030 Meeting with Deputy Minister of Agriculture Abdul Ghani Ghuriani 1300 Shura with Young Program Alumni hosted by Ambassador Crocker 1500 Roundtable Discussion with Afghan Media Owners & Publishers on Freedom of the Press/Development of the Media 1700 Meeting with United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan Special Representative Ján Kubiš

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Thursday, March 29

1030 Meeting with Opposition Leader Hanif Atmar 1230 Pre-reception roundtable and lunch with select women alumni of U.S. Embassy grants and awards programs 1400 Reception for 2012 International Women of Courage Award winner and Embassy program alumni hosted by Ambassador Crocker 1545 Meeting with Ambassador McFarland and Brigadier General Morrow on Rule of Law 1830 Dinner with senior Embassy staff and journalists hosted by Ambassador Crocker

Friday, March 30

1300 Visit with Ambassador Crocker to the bazaar on the International Security Assistance Force compound 1830 Meeting with Commander of International Security Assistance Force General John Allen

Saturday, March 31

0830 Meeting with Minister of Mines Waheedullah Shahrani 0945 Meeting with Minister of Education Ghulam Farooq Wardak 1200 Meeting with President Hamid Karzai at Presidential Palace 1330 Outbrief with Ambassador Ryan Crocker 1415 Outbrief with Embassy Public Affairs Section leadership 1820 Departure from Kabul International Airport

L-R: Laura Dupuy, Ken Furst, Maria Zammit, L.J. Stambuk, Mimi Gregory, Jim Falk 4

Overview

Afghanistan has different meanings to different people. For many, including some of us initially, it signifies a decade of wasted American blood and treasure, propping up a corrupt and ungrateful regime. News stories chronicle each insurgent attack and embarrassing and destructive U.S. troop behavior - whether burning Qur’ans, desecrating dead Afghans, or a rogue soldier on a killing spree. Our attention is drawn to human rights abuses in Afghan prisons and scandals involving the national bank, the vast drug trade, and the loss of millions of unaccounted dollars during development projects.

Those were our impressions going in, and no doubt why 56% of Americans feel we should get out of there as soon as possible, up 40% from a year ago. But we discovered another Afghanistan – one that doesn’t get headlines and is relatively unknown in the United States. That Afghanistan unveiled itself to us during extensive meetings with representatives from all sectors of Afghan society, as well as those in the U.S. Embassy, International Security Assistance Force, and the United Nations Assistance Mission to Afghanistan. All told, we met and spoke with more than 200 Afghans during our week there.

So what have we accomplished in Afghanistan over the last ten years? And what can we hope to accomplish by staying any longer? Perhaps no one embodies Afghanistan’s achievements better than the dozens of women we met during our week there: women prosecutors, women in media, businesswomen, a cabinet minister, women parliamentarians, and women students. All are women of courage. As the Minister of Health stated, “Under the , I couldn’t even walk into this Ministry.” Now, she runs it.

Statistics also reveal the back-story. In 2002, Afghan life expectancy was 44 years of age. Today, it’s 62. Back then, 900,000 students attended school, all boys. Now there are almost 9 million students, 38% of whom are girls. Another 40,000 students have enrolled in public and private universities over the last 5 years. Half a million new jobs and 50,000 new businesses have been created since then. Government revenues have increased by 40%.

Health statistics indicate great strides in Afghan quality of life over the past decade. Given a large, rural population with previously limited health care access and a high rate of maternal and infant mortality, the increase in the number of midwives from 400 in 2002 to more than 3,250 today has literally given Afghan women a new lease on life. Access to basic health care has jumped from 9% to 64%, and infant deaths have dropped by 22%.

As wonderful as all this is, the U.S. isn’t sacrificing thousands of lives and billions of dollars for humanitarian efforts alone. There are many deserving countries that fall under that rubric. But other countries do not claim U.S. strategic interests. Afghanistan does. The Taliban provided sanctuary for al- Qaida and, given the opportunity, may do so again. Other deadly insurgent groups are also in play, particularly the Haqqani network who just orchestrated at least seven coordinated, countrywide attacks 5

on April 15th. Instability in Afghanistan will not be limited to inside its borders; it threatens the region and it threatens the U.S. While September 11 may be a memory for us, a repeat remains an aspiration for others.

Ambassador Crocker and others stated: “We’re not expecting to turn Afghanistan into a Switzerland with palm trees.” But what is possible is a stable country that doesn’t provide safe haven to terrorists and insurgents, conducts “free and fair” elections, and continues to make progress on developing its civic capacity and safeguarding human and women’s rights.

What we found is a country at a tipping point. 2014 marks a year of transition for Afghanistan, and which way the country goes depends in large part on what the international community – and particularly the U.S. – chooses to do. A perfect storm will gather then, with Presidential elections taking place just as international forces wind down and security transitions to Afghan control. All Afghans with whom we met are worried, begging us not to abandon them. Even those outspoken critics of U.S. night raids and recent military mishaps emphasized their desire for a continued U.S. military presence after 2014. The presidential election weighs on everyone’s mind. President Karzai has publicly committed to abiding by Afghanistan’s constitution and stepping Under the down in 2014 – the first peaceful transition of government in Afghanistan. Taliban, I Karzai’s critics even admit he has held the country together over the past decade, and his successor remains a big unknown. couldn’t even walk into this For economic, political and civic development to flourish and all the gains Ministry.” Now, described above to continue, a secure environment is essential. Essential for she runs it. investors, essential for infrastructure development, essential for allowing - Minister of Health women to assume their equal place in society, and essential for students to continue their education. To withdraw our troops prematurely – before the Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF) – are ready, would truly be wasting all the blood and treasure already expended.

Is it worth the continued cost? Whatever our viewpoints were going in, coming out our delegation felt the answer to be an unqualified “yes.” We do realize that the current costs and current commitments are unsustainable, both politically and economically. However, the costs for not maintaining a secure and stable environment would be equally, if not more, unsustainable.

What is important to understand is how those costs will decrease over time, even if the U.S. and others maintain a robust security presence while ANSF increases its capacity. It costs $1 million to support and train one U.S. soldier; it costs $30,000 for one Afghan soldier. As the ANSF takes the lead in defense and security and as we reduce our role to an advisory and training one, our costs decrease. And Afghan forces have already shown success in taking the lead: Amb. Crocker and General John Allen credit them for maintaining civil order and preventing national riots following the Qur’an burnings. The ANSF also led in quelling the multiple insurgent attacks throughout Afghanistan on April 15th.

It cannot be overstated that Afghanistan is at a critical tipping point. For all the gains to take root, Afghan civil society needs the secure and stable environment that only the international community can provide in the interim, particularly as the Taliban and Afghan government move forward in reconciliation and reintegration. They cannot succeed in that endeavor without a political solution as well as a military one. But until they do reconcile and reintegrate, military pressure must continue. And

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it is already having an effect: 4,000 Taliban foot soldiers have relinquished their weapons over the past year and reintegrated back into their home communities.

So, do challenges remain? Absolutely. We are far from saying Afghanistan is well on its way to being a free and fair society. But have inroads been made? Absolutely. Particularly since 2002. As a female student told us at the close of our shura with a dozen of her colleagues: “In the past, my family lost hope. Now we feel we can do it.” And we need to make sure they can. - Maria Zammit

Meeting with Director of Communications & Public Diplomacy Eileen O’Connor and Public Affairs Counselor Donna Welton

Ms. O’Connor presented an overview of various activities undertaken by the Embassy in support of developing civic capacity in Afghanistan. The Public Affairs staff in Kabul totals 81, 41 of whom are Americans and the rest Afghans.

As part of its responsibilities, the Public Affairs Section (PAS) seeks to “empower civic society and mobilize women’s groups” through media outreach and press briefings.

In fiscal year 2009, the Public Affairs Section obligated $44 million of Economic Support Funds through grants and cooperative agreements, $36 million of which has been dispersed. In fiscal year 2010, the Public Affairs Section obligated $68 million of Economic Support Funds through grants and cooperative agreements, $45 million of which has been dispersed.

The Fulbright Scholarship Program has increased by 30% this year alone and is now one of the largest embassy-managed programs in the world. This year also marks the inauguration of the Fulbright Doctoral program in Afghanistan, complementing existing opportunities through the Fulbright Master’s, Humphrey Professional Fellowship, Foreign Language Teaching Assistantship, and Junior Faculty Development Program.

The Embassy has also funded English-access and people-to-people programs, with 90 participants in the people-to-people program this year.

Ten years ago, there was one radio station in Afghanistan, which was Kabul Neighborhood under Taliban control. Today, there is a plethora of radio and TV stations, with programs ranging from popular live, call-in shows to a policy-focused radio program called “Kabul Debate Live” (partially funded by the U.S. Embassy), and Radio Azadi – similar to Voice of America – among them. Media advertising costs currently average $4,000/per half-hour. 7

Sesame Street has come to Afghanistan recently as well, and has not only helped with literacy but has also led to attitudinal shifts, such as the growing realization by some traditionalists that it’s acceptable for girls to attend school.

In addition, PAS maintains linkages with its counterparts within the Government of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan, coordinates policy statements with State Department headquarters in D.C., and is working to increase joint political-military (U.S. and ISAF forces) public affairs efforts. - Maria Zammit

Meeting with Ambassador Ryan C. Crocker

Ambassador Ryan Crocker began our welcome briefing with a reflection on his service to the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan over the past decade and some of the changes since the fall of the Taliban. In January 2002, he reopened the American Embassy in Kabul, where he served for two years, before returning as Ambassador in July 2011. Two points demonstrate some of the key changes occurring in the country: First, life expectancy in Afghanistan has increased from 44 years in 2002 to 62. Second, in 2002, there were no national armed forces or police forces; today Ambassador’s Residence, Kabul there are 350,000.

Without hesitation, Amb. Crocker described Afghanistan as our nation’s most critical security challenge. Currently, the Taliban is “waiting it out in ” and, should they be allowed to return, they will bring al-Qaida with them. Though al-Qaida is now franchised around the world, Afghanistan is where they want to be. In addition, there are four other active insurgency groups, including the Haqqani network, which was responsible for the September 13, 2011 attack on the U.S. Embassy in Kabul. According to Amb. Crocker, the Haqqani network “makes the Taliban look like good guys.”

Amb. Crocker described reconciliation and reintegration processes underway with those Taliban who want to return to and participate in Afghan society under certain conditions. So far, 4,000 Taliban foot soldiers have chosen to reintegrate back into their villages. Amb. Crocker has also seen an effort on the part of the Taliban leadership to talk to the Afghan government. The problem is getting Pakistan to allow them to do so.

The conditions under which the Taliban may return are: 1) renouncing violence and any ties to al-Qaida, and 2) respecting and abiding by all aspects of the Constitution of Afghanistan, including women’s and human rights.

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Amb. Crocker outlined the mission of the U.S. embassy in Afghanistan as follows:

• Prevent the return of al-Qaida and the Taliban. • Help the Afghan people create a credible and sustainable state. “You may • Help Afghanistan be seen as transparent and fair. have the • Send a signal to both allies and adversaries that the U.S. won’t repeat watches, but what the Russians did when they left the country in 1990, paving the way we have the to 9/11. • Transfer security responsibility to the Afghan National Security Forces time.” - Afghan proverb (ANSF) by 2014. • Forge a long-term strategic partnership with Afghanistan through 2024.

During our visit, negotiations were underway for a Strategic Partnership Agreement (SPA) that would define our relationship with Afghanistan through 2024, as well as for a Memorandum of Understanding that would accelerate the transition of military responsibility to the Afghan forces, including control of special operations such as “night raids.” The latter negotiations are aimed, in part, at reducing civilian casualties, which has been a major political issue for President Karzai. They have now agreed to “Afghanize” the night raids, i.e., Afghans will take the lead in these raids. (N.B. That Memorandum was signed shortly we after we left on April 8. Another Memorandum of Understanding was signed a week before we arrived, transferring legal authority over detention centers and detainees to the Afghan government. The U.S., however, will still be allowed to interrogate the captives. The SPA was initialed by Amb. Crocker and the head of Afghanistan’s National Security Council on April 22. It now goes before the U.S. Congress and the Afghan Parliament for ratification.)

Ambassador Ryan Crocker There are positive indications that the transition is moving in the desired direction, and the ANSF are viewed as increasingly • Sworn in as U.S. Ambassador to capable. For example, during the deadly protests over the Afghanistan in July ‘11 Qur’an burning in February, the ANSF had full responsibility for • First sent to Afghanistan in ’02 to maintaining security and they performed well. reopen the American Embassy • Dean of Bush School of Government at Texas A&M University Jan. ’10 - Under the Afghan constitution, President Karzai’s second term July ‘11 will end in 2014, and concerns abound about the election, • Ambassador to Iraq ’07-‘09 security, and his successor. President Karzai has publicly • Ambassador to Pakistan ’04-‘07 committed to stepping down and has expressed his desire to • Ambassador to Syria ’98-‘01 remain in Afghanistan. However, with five assassination • Ambassador to Kuwait ’94-‘97 • Ambassador to Lebanon ’90-‘93 attempts behind him, the scenario could change should a • Received the Presidential Medal of presidential successor hostile to him appear or should he Freedom believe the country will fall prey to greater instability. Today, • Born into Air Force family in the President rarely leaves the palace grounds, and his survival Spokane, WA – schooled in Morocco, will depend on a benign successor who will afford him Canada, Turkey & U.S. protection.

Amb. Crocker concluded by highlighting the following points:

• The solution to the situation in Afghanistan is a political one, not a military one. He repeated what he and General Petraeus learned in Iraq: “You can’t kill your way out of an insurgency.” 9

• The American people must be reminded that Afghanistan is where 9/11 came from and where the next 9/11 will come from if the U.S. withdraws prematurely. • Although everyone (Americans, allies, and Afghans) is tired of the war, the U.S. must exhibit patience. As an Afghan saying goes: “You may have the watches, but we have the time.” • While the U.S. is currently spending $120 billion annually in Afghanistan, the costs will decrease to $4.1 billion in 2014. They will be much greater over the long run if the U.S. leaves now.

Ambassador Crocker closed the session by inviting the delegation to take advantage of the resources and expertise of the embassy staff to answer our questions and learn as much as possible during the week ahead. - Laura Dupuy

Meeting with Acting Political Counselor Geoff Odlum

The bilateral relationship is “hanging by a thread,” was how Geoff Odlum opened our discussion on the work of his team that has reporting responsibility over four areas: external and regional issues, reconciliation, women’s issues, and parliament and government institutions. The attack on the U.S. Embassy in Kabul on September 13, 2011 was the first of a number of events that have shaken the confidence of both parties. While attention has been most recently focused on Sergeant Robert Bales, it represents just one of a series of events that have challenged the trust needed for progress on our strategic goals, which were identified as 1) successful negotiations of the “Strategic

USAID Deputy Mission Director Jed Barton, Institute of Partnership Agreement,” 2) reconciliation, which Diplomacy Director Hazrat Wahriz, and U.S. Embassy includes talking to the Taliban and supporting Deputy Political Counselor Geoff Odlum open the MFA Training Center with a ribbon cutting in January 2012. unequivocally the government and constitution of Afghanistan, and 3) obtaining guarantees from neighboring countries that Afghanistan’s sovereignty will be respected. All of these should be viewed through the U.S.’s most important objective: to dismantle, disrupt and defeat al-Qaida and ensure that Afghanistan is sufficiently stable and secure to eliminate any likelihood of al-Qaida or another terrorist organization establishing a base there to target the U.S. or its interests.

Current U.S. policy states that by the end of 2014, Afghan forces will assume the lead role in their security. However, it is the intent of the United States and Afghanistan to reach an agreement soon on what is being described as an “enduring partnership.” To that end, the parties are now actively engaged in negotiating the Strategic Partnership Agreement (SPA) that will provide the basis for the relationship through 2024. It will provide the structure for 10,000 – 30,000 U.S. troops, including some special forces, to remain in the country to train and advise Afghanistan’s military. (The SPA was initialed on April 22, 2012, subject to ratification by the U. S. Congress and Afghan Parliament.)

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It must be noted that there is no intent for any permanent U.S. bases; our troops will operate from Afghan bases. Furthermore, the United States has agreed not to use Afghanistan as a launch pad to other countries, i.e., Pakistan and , so Afghanistan can freely build confidence with its neighbors.

Turning to Pakistan, Odlum, like others with whom we met, emphasized that Pakistan must stop providing a sanctuary to insurgents. The battle cannot be won if the Taliban and the Haqqani network can move unchallenged across the border. It is critical for Pakistan to realize and demonstrate that a stable and secure Afghanistan is in its national The bilateral interest. Pakistan, always worried about India’s intentions, would be better relationship is served if it placed greater weight on building economic connections with and “hanging by a among India, Pakistan, Afghanistan and, even, Iran. thread.” - Geoff Odlum The U.S. has worked to keep Iran’s relations with Afghanistan out of the discussions concerning Iran’s nuclear policies. Notwithstanding, Iran has provided support to the Taliban, including both arms and training, in order to weaken and destabilize Afghanistan. (Of interest, Chabahar, an Iranian port located in Baluchistan, could serve as a vital connector to global markets for Afghanistan.)

U.S. efforts to encourage reconciliation talks are proceeding and there is clear recognition that this war – like most – cannot be won solely on the battlefield. The White House view is that only an inclusive political settlement can bring lasting peace. To this end, Pakistan again must be encouraged to permit the Taliban to engage in talks without fear of imprisonment or worse. As reported widely, the preconditions for these talks are that the Taliban must renounce international terrorism and that they must be willing to talk to the Afghan government. The recent unsettling chain of events has created bumps in the road but there are early signs that significant progress may be reached soon. Key signs of this will be the release of five Taliban detainees held by the U.S. in exchange for one U.S. serviceman. A sticking point is the U.S.’ insistence that Taliban prisoners be transferred to the custody of Qatar to ensure they will not pose a future threat.

In 2014, Afghanistan will elect a president to succeed President Hamid Karzai, who has held the position since December 2004. Odlum reiterated what we heard from others – that the U.S. fully expects Karzai to step aside, with the caveat that this could change should he believe that the country’s progress could unravel or if someone dangerously hostile to him and his allies were elected. It is the intent of the United Kabul States to demonstrate that we are backing the political process, not a specific candidate. To this end, we will provide technical assistance to give as much credibility to the process as possible. Our standard for the election will be “credible and inclusive” rather than the West’s motto of “free and fair” elections. While it is too early to hazard a guess on a likely winner, it is evident that the race will be hotly contested and that Abdullah Abdullah, who lost in 2008, will be a likely candidate, as will Zia Massoud and possibly Hanif Atmar. - Jim Falk

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Meeting with USAID Senior Deputy Mission Director Dr. Jeff Ashley

Dr. Jeffrey Ashley, senior Deputy Mission Director, described the Afghanistan mission as the largest U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) program in the world, delivering humanitarian assistance, food, development, and transition assistance.

USAID has delivered $17 billion to Afghanistan since 2002, $10 billion during past 3-4 years. Due to Congressional cuts, the amount varied from $3.5 billion in 2010 to $2 Dr. Jeffrey Ashley billion in 2011 and is currently at $2.8 billion for 2012. USAID is now in the process of a strategic streamlining of projects – trying to better align them with Afghan national priorities – while also trying to satisfy multiple constituencies such as the U.S. Congress, the Afghanistan government and USAID.

Current policy is to move away from infrastructure development into more capacity building and training to enable the Afghan government to assume control over these projects. USAID is focusing on a few key areas such as food security, job creation, regional integration, government institutions and revenue generation, with a particular emphasis on .

Obviously a huge undertaking, USAID works from six locations in Afghanistan, employing approximately 365 U.S. government personnel and 165 Afghans as direct hires. In addition, USAID projects employ 172,600 Afghans and 1,883 Americans in about 1,325 projects, which in turn involve approximately 5,000 contracts and subcontracts (3,260 of which are local firms).

Project sectors and related funding include: • Power • Education • Afghan Reconstruction Trust Fund • Agriculture • Stabilization Unit • Rule of Law • Health • Economic Growth • Water • Cross [sectors] Cutting Programs • Roads • Alternative Development

Successes Supported by USAID

Economic growth has averaged 10% annually, bringing GDP – as estimated by the IMF – from $4.1 billion in 2002 to $15.6 billion by 2011. The country now has a single, stable currency. USAID has also supported the establishment of the Afghanistan Central Business Registry, with over 47,000 businesses registered, of which 26,000 are new businesses. The Agency has calculated that 500,000 new jobs have been created since 2002, and extreme poverty has fallen to 36% of the population.

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Reliable electrical energy now reaches 20% of the Afghan population, up from 6% in 2002. This results in large part from the addition of 172 megawatts to the national power grid, permitting 3.3 million new customers to connect. More Afghans actually receive electricity, but many of these are illegal hook-ups so the total number is uncertain.

Transportation has been improved by increasing intact roads from 50 kilometers in 2002 to 1,800 km today. These roads have been cleared of mines and rebuilt to international standards.

Health gains have improved the lives of the majority of Afghans. Basic health care delivery has increased from 9% of the population in 2002 to 64% today. There are now more than 530 health facilities and 6 hospitals in Afghanistan, serving 13 million people. Infant deaths have dropped by 22% due in great part to the increase in the number of trained midwives from 467 to 3,250. (USAID has financed the training of 1,750 midwives.) This has been a major factor in lowering maternal morbidity and mortality rates from 23% to 16% over the past five years, and adult life expectancy has risen to 62 years from 42 years in 2002-2004. 90% of children are now vaccinated for .

Education has transformed since 2002. Under the Taliban there were Economic 900,000 children in school and nearly 100% were boys. Today there are growth has almost nine million children in school, 38% of whom are girls. There are averaged still about 3.5 million children not receiving education due to poverty, traditional family values, remote locations of villages, etc. But now more 10% than 1,000 children attend schools in remote localities, 68% of whom are annually girls. - USAID

Governance by the central government has improved as evidenced, for example, by improved accountability, more responsive elected officials, and increased access to justice. USAID reports that these improvements result in large part from its investments in capacity building and that they form a base from which to evaluate further improvement.

Challenges

Government accountability is measured by the Afghan people, who do not yet have confidence in their government. Everyone we spoke with on this subject, including President Karzai, said that corruption persists and services are far from where they need to be. There are numerous views – and consequently, regular debate – on how to best resolve overall governance issues. Financial transparency, equal application of laws to all citizens, confidence in delivery of basic services, physical security and food security are fundamental issues on which the government needs to deliver to earn the confidence of its people.

USAID is an important arm of the U.S. government, providing the necessary support for social, political, economic, infrastructure, education, and health services, among others. This is a monumental task in both execution and accountability. Without it, we would be limited to providing only military security. The withdrawal of aid funding and programs by the U.S. in 1989 after the Soviets left was a mistake whose consequences included a deadly and debilitating civil war and the rise of the Taliban.

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*Note: The Minister of Education reported that 40% of the current student population is female, a statistical discrepancy that can easily occur in a system with rudimentary data collection means. - Ken Furst Meeting with Aga Khan Trust for Culture CEO Ajmal Maiwandi

Restoring the archaeological treasures of Kabul and Herat is only one segment of the mandate for conservation and area development of the Aga Khan’s Trust for Culture. We were privileged to have the opportunity to meet with Ajmal Maiwandi, Chief Executive Officer of the Trust, to learn about the work of the foundation, which includes community development programs and planning in addition to widespread restoration of historic buildings and open spaces.

The Trust is represented across the country by nine agencies whose specific areas of development include: promotion of culture and tourism, restoration of 26 monuments, conservation, preservation, advocacy and planning. In an agreement with the [then] Interim Administration of Afghanistan in 2002, the Aga Khan Trust began the restoration and rehabilitation of a number of significant historic buildings and public parks in the city of Kabul. Key to the agreement was their investment in the development of skilled workers to achieve fine quality restoration work.

In tandem with the Ministry of Information and Culture, the Aga Khan Trust has been researching traditional Afghan music, part of an initiative for the music of Central Asia. These collections represent folk music from Baghdis and Herat and traditional Badakhshi folk music. The preservation of this music receives support from the embassies of the United States and Norway.

Following our briefing, we were treated to a traditional and delicious Afghan luncheon, served in the sunny garden of the Trust, in the additional company of Dr. Abdul Najimi and Mirwaiss Sidiqi, colleagues of CEO Maiwandi.

Following lunch, we had the pleasure of touring the restored “Baghe Babur” (Babur Gardens), in Kabul. This 25-acre site provides Kabul with a beautiful green space for recreation and cultural events. The Babur’s Tomb garden contains re-created water channels and pavilions that reproduce the beauty of the gardens that Babur dreamed about while in India, and terraces planted with flowering trees and shrubs. It also includes a caravanserai, the Queen’s Palace complex and, most importantly, the tomb of Babur, the first Mughal Emperor.

Understanding the significance of this historic figure, a Turko-Mongol Muslim conqueror from Central Asia, is key to the importance of preserving this historic burial site. Babur was a direct descendant of Timur [Tamerlane] on his paternal side and Genghis Khan on his mother’s side.

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His name, derived from the Persian, means “tiger,” and his memoirs – called the “Baburnama” – record a rich history of his conquests throughout Central Asia, India and Persia. His dying wish was to be buried in his favorite garden in Kabul, where his tomb bears the following inscription in Persian:

“If there is a paradise on earth, it is this, it is this!” - Mimi Gregory

Meeting with Minister of Public Health Suraya Dalil

The Minister of Public Health, Suraya Dalil, reflecting on the enormous changes and progress for women, noted how ten years ago she would not have been allowed to enter the building whose ministry she now heads.

When she attended medical school in the late 1980s, many medical students were women – those were good times for women. During the civil war (1991-1996) Kabul was nearly destroyed, making studying nearly impossible. But it was even worse under the Taliban when women were not allowed to study at all and faced systematic institutional discrimination. During this period, Dr. Dalil worked for UNICEF and kept a low profile, fully covered in a burqa and always accompanied by her Dr. Suraya Dalil husband.

She stressed that the past ten years have been remarkable for women, with increased roles and presence throughout Afghan society and government. For example:

• 7 million children in school, 38% are female • 18-20% of civil service employees are women (many still in junior positions) • Thousands of female students attend university • Hundreds of university professors are female • 3 Cabinet members are female • One Governor out of 34 is female • One municipality head out of 34 is female • 27% of seats in the National Parliament is reserved for women, as legislated by the constitution

Minister Dalil described her ministry as one of the largest of the non-military ministries, with 16,000 staff members throughout the country and an additional 30,000 staff budgeted through non-governmental organizations (NGOs). Last fiscal year’s development budget was $162 million, with $120 million in the regular budget. Unlike other ministries, the Ministry of Health is staffed largely by professionals, employing doctors, nurses, technicians, etc. It provides vaccinations, basic health services, and administers health centers, hospitals and clinics across the country. The Ministry also operates two medical schools.

The constitution provides for the provision of free health care to the population; however, due to the advances in medical science and increased costs, this is increasingly difficult. The National 15

Health Care Account study last year estimated that $42 per person Dr. Suraya Dalil is paid in health care costs. Of that amount, $31 is paid by individuals out-of-pocket, mostly on pharmaceuticals, while $11 is • Graduated from Kabul paid by the public sector (government and donor contributions). Medical Institute ‘91 • Master’s degree from Harvard University Recently, there has been a growth in the private sector for medical School of Public care which, according to the Minister, is substandard and Health unregulated; the government is working on regulations and • Emergency physician licensing. for Doctors Without

Borders • Worked for UNICEF on Immunizations/vaccinations are mandatory and free of charge. immunization, Demand from parents for immunization is very good; the problem is nutrition and more on the supply side. Routine vaccination is reported at 70% of motherhood projects the child population, but is probably less given the number of

annual outbreaks of communicable diseases.

Dr. Dalil called attention to the following accomplishments:

• A significant decline in maternal mortality, which is a very good indicator of a country’s development. Eight years ago, maternal mortality was 1,600 women out of 100,000, with a death occurring every 30 minutes during childbirth. Today, maternal mortality is 327 per 100,000, representing a death every 2 hours. • An increase to over 3,000 midwives in Afghanistan, up from 450 ten years ago - another good example of women’s empowerment in the past decade. • Improved outreach for basic health care, reaching 60-65% of the population, who are now within a one-hour walk of a facility.

Critical health issues facing Afghanistan are:

• Communicable diseases – polio, TB, malaria, etc. (TB remains a major public health problem and is more widespread among females, but Minister Dalil believes it is now under control and the current system of health care is responding adequately to it.) • Lack of basic health services. • The need to provide secondary/tertiary health-care coverage, especially in Kabul. • Better quality control in the pharmaceutical sector – black-market counterfeit pharmaceuticals are a problem.

Drug addiction is another serious issue, with no immediate solution in sight. While there are treatment/detox centers, they are not effective and many patients quickly return to drug use. The supply of drugs is high with an active network of suppliers. In 2009, the UN estimated there were one million addicts in Afghanistan. The Ministry is developing two strategies to battle this problem: 1) opium substitution and 2) community involvement for mild and moderate cases.

While drug addiction is not treated as a crime in Afghanistan, it does carry a social stigma. Other factors influencing the drug problem are: unemployment (employed patients have better recovery chances following detox, thus vocational training is being offered to improve employment opportunities) and security, which reduces criminal/supply operations.

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Minister Dalil emphasized that health was one government sector that has shown good results, particularly in effectiveness, accountability and efficiency. She expressed gratitude to USAID and the World Bank for their help in this sector. The development and provision of the Basic Package of Health Services to the population has been a big success, and Dalil feels it is imperative to sustain and maintain these positive results.

The Minister indicated that, although she is proud of the developments of the past ten years, she – and everyone in Afghanistan – knows that the progress is fragile and vulnerable. All the achievements could be reversed in a few years, she noted. Progress is fragile and The Ministry is now focused on human resources development to prepare for the decrease in international assistance in 2014. vulnerable. - Minister of Health

Minister Dalil also stated that jobs for professional women are not easy to come by and require much effort. The environment is still very challenging, especially due to illiteracy and corruption. The fight against corruption, which remains widespread, is especially hard. However, what is encouraging is the change coming from the younger generation, while, she noted, the rural areas remain conservative.

Though Minister Dalil is concerned about the outlook, she told the delegation that were the Taliban to return, she would not leave the country. She feels she has a moral obligation to continue the fight and very much hopes that her three daughters will have a better future. - L. J. Stambuk

Meeting with Abdul Rassoul Sayyaf, Member of Parliament and Head of the Wolesi Jirga’s International Affairs Committee

Abdul Sayyaf, a Pashtun and influential member of parliament, met with us in his heavily guarded home in Kabul. The survivor of several assassination attempts and a former member of the Northern Alliance, Sayyaf is reported to rarely leave his home. (Five of his bodyguards were killed by a car bomb in 2009, and one of his top commanders was assassinated in 2008.)

Abdul Sayyaf A reputed warlord with ties to Osama Bin Laden, Sayyaf is no doubt one of the more colorful Afghans with whom the delegation met. When we asked U.S. government officials why he continued to play a role in the current government, we were reminded that you don’t make peace with your friends. Having him work within the national government and in support of it better secures a stable Afghanistan.

Mr. Sayyaf began our discussion by noting that Afghanistan is now at a critical juncture: at the crossroads of its future, and with neighboring countries (i.e., Pakistan) trying to create problems. He insisted that the Taliban are not the product of Afghanistan but were brought there by others. In strong words, Sayyaf described the Taliban as the creation of Pakistan who 17

were trained by its Inter-Services Intelligence Directorate. Afghans in Pakistani camps were forced to join the Taliban, including some of his own men whom Pakistan turned against him.

According to Sayyaf, Mullah Omar (the Taliban leader) is merely Pakistan’s “tape recorder” who not only gives Islam a bad name, but Taliban leader whose other goals are 1) “to destroy the pride of the Mujahedeen and Mullah Omar freedom fighters who defeated the Soviet Union” and 2) to destroy Afghanistan. is merely “Pakistan’s Similarly, al-Qaida is also the guest of a “neighboring country,” and tape Sayyaf expressed his hope that the world community would help free recorder.” Afghanistan from Pakistan’s influence. - Abdul Sayyaf

In his view, Afghanistan’s most important goals are: 1) ending intervention by these neighboring countries and 2) eliminating the roots of terrorism in the region. To accomplish this, he would like to see a continued and strengthened relationship between the U.S. and Afghanistan, and he fully supports a Strategic Partnership Agreement between the two countries.

Sayyaf insisted that this view was shared by all of Afghanistan. The continued friendship between our two countries, necessary in preventing neighboring countries from creating problems within Afghanistan, was a major theme in our discussions with him.

Sayyaf then described his personal background, which included six years in jail for an attempted coup against then-President . Breaking out of prison during the Soviet occupation, he fled to , Pakistan where he became the head of the High Council, leading a Mujahedeen faction that fought against the Soviet Union. He is also a member of the Northern Alliance, stating that he had fought alongside the revered Ahmad Shah Massoud, who was assassinated on September 9, 2001. Sayyaf’s political party, the Islamic Dawah Organization of Afghanistan, is described as hard-line Islamic fundamentalist.

During our discussions, Sayyaf insisted that in ten years of fighting the Soviets, he had never attacked any foreigners outside Afghanistan – only on the battlefield. He also claimed to desire peace and pointed out that Islam considers terrorist bombings as unlawful.

A fortified home in Kabul. In response to a question about the Afghan National Army and police forces, Sayyaf expressed uncertainty for their future. He and others worry about how to secure their funding when the international community pulls out. In his view, the Afghan National Security Forces have become accustomed to receiving salaries. With the burden of feeding and caring for families, they would naturally gravitate to jobs offering higher salaries. Though he currently views these forces as “good,” he worries that we will lose the war should we leave without securing their future income. Their capabilities are necessary to keeping out the terrorists, he said.

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Finally, on the issue of reconciliation, Sayyaf acknowledges the impossibility of achieving peace without the involvement of neighboring countries. Though describing these countries as “more breakable” than Afghanistan, he was vague on how best to engage them to ensure Afghanistan’s future stability. - Maria Zammit

Meeting with Economic Counselor David Renz

Economic Counselor David Renz commenced our briefing in the Embassy’s New Chancery by putting Afghanistan in context: Afghanistan is the least developed country in the world due to the economic impact of 30 years of continuous conflict. Essentially, “there was nothing left” when the U.S. arrived in 2001.

Economists and development agencies are grappling to predict what the economic impact on the country will be with allied troop withdrawal in 2014. For one thing, the estimated spending on (not in) Afghanistan is a relatively small fraction of the dollars that come into the economy. The World Bank is urging donors to get more money on budget; off-budget funds end up going more to serve the international donors than back into the Afghan economy. The impact is greater when incoming funds become Kabul line items in government ministries’ budgets.

The World Bank estimates a significant drop in GDP over the 3-5 years following transition (2015-2018) from 8.9% to 5.6% ($18-$22 billion). A 5.6% growth rate is below the rate needed to keep up with population growth, and less than the double-digit growth required to make a dent in poverty.

Mr. Renz described three critical periods in Afghanistan’s economic development: 1) Transition Period (2012 – 2014); 2) Medium Term or “Transformation Decade” (2015-2024); and 3) Long Term (2024 – Beyond).

During the transition period, Mr. Renz foresees two major gaps: security and development. For the former, delegates at the Chicago NATO Summit in May 2012 will discuss the funding of Afghanistan’s security. The estimated security costs in 2015 are $4 billion annually compared to total projected revenues, including assistance, of $2 billion annually.

In development assistance, Afghanistan faces a projected gap in the $3-5 billion range, with an operating budget deficit of $1 billion. The greatest challenge of the Transition Period will be achieving fiscal sustainability.

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Looking forward to the Transformation Decade, economists are focusing on the following:

• Agricultural Sector: moving from subsistence farming to high-end horticulture for export. • Private Sector Growth: developing light industry and import substitution (Afghanistan runs a trade deficit of $8.3 million). • Extractive Sector: potential for 25% of federal revenue with $500 million near term to $1 billion or more medium term. • Regional Connectivity: on the positive side, much progress has been made on this issue including the establishment of a Regional Economic Cooperation Council. • Jobs: underemployment is currently 48% and unemployment is 8-9%; a growing educated population with low employment can be a threat to security. • Tax revenues: on the face of it, tax policy is not bad, but implementation is another matter. 40-45% of tax revenues come from customs fees, and the US is trying to improve custom procedures. • Trade: tariffs (5-7%) and taxes on luxury goods (20%) differ from Pakistan, which leads to cross-border smuggling.

The extractive sector has significant potential, but also significant challenges: Western investors worry about security risks in the region; an absence of roads and railways in this landlocked country makes transportation a long-term obstacle; and, in the case of the Aynak Copper Deposit, archeological finds are slowing down the extractive process (15,000 museum-quality pieces have already been discovered).

There is also the potential for oil and gas development, which could become commercial within three years. If successful, the country could provide itself with a domestic source of fuel, a necessary ingredient for economic development. Afghanistan can’t continue to develop and sustain industry on diesel fuel.

Mr. Renz described another important developmental project: The Kajaki Dam, one of two major hydroelectric power dams in Helmand province in southern Afghanistan. The dam has dual functions – to provide electricity and irrigate otherwise arid farmland. The dam currently produces 30 megawatts of power, 20-30% of which is lost in transmission. A project to add a third generator, which will add 48-52 megawatts, has Kajaki Dam in Helmand province been in the works for more than five years. In the meantime, diesel generators are used as a stopgap measure.

Progress on the dam has been slow, due either to attacks by the Taliban or traffic stoppages at the Pakistan border, where American contractors and equipment are being detained. Consequently, the supplies must be brought in through northern routes, causing delays and significant cost increases. Once the new generator goes online, new power lines must be added to the grid.

No conversation about economic development is complete without mentioning corruption. Mr. Renz said that corruption in Afghanistan is systemic and typically comes in two forms. One is 20

similar to the corruption found in Bangladesh, for example – systemic, but predictable. The other is like Nigeria – systemic but unpredictable. When it’s systemic but unpredictable, economists can’t integrate corruption into a business model. Unfortunately, corruption in Afghanistan is a combination of the two.

Mr. Renz began the meeting by stating he is one of the “optimists” - that despite the challenges, he believes that Afghanistan has great potential for economic development. He concluded by saying: “Lots of places [around the world] are demanding help, and we [the U.S.] can only do so much. We are at a crossroads in Afghanistan – do we stay and build stability, or walk away and create chaos.” - Laura Dupuy

Meeting with Senior Deputy Coordinating Director for Development and Economic Affairs Greg Burton and Deputy Director Peggy Walker

Kabul Bank Crisis

The near failure of Kabul Bank, which occurred in August of 2010 when depositors initiated a near run on the bank, continues to have important implications in development assistance and confidence in the Karzai government. Aside from the bank’s significant financial losses of approximately $900 million (nearly equal to Afghanistan’s annual revenues), the bank was the principal bank used to pay Afghanistan’s security forces and military. Closely held by the political elite, including President Karzai’s brother Mahmood (who owned 7%), the bank made fictitious loans under forged documents to family and friends. Much of this money was directed to real estate deals in Dubai. The bank’s chairman, Sherkhan Farnood, and chief executive, Khalilullah Frozi, have been charged and placed under what is understood to be “loose” house arrest; thus far, formal charges have not been made.

To address the crisis, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) put in place a number of requirements with set dates for reform implementation and concrete reporting, including forensic audits and asset recovery. Not discounting the importance of financial reform, but recognizing that this ran the risk of severely harming Afghanistan’s economic development, Ambassador Crocker and others pushed for the renewal of IMF support for three years with semi-annual reviews (the next of which is scheduled for June of this year).

With the exception of asset recovery, these requirements have largely been met, and it was on that basis that Afghanistan's IMF program was approved in November 2011. The Government of Afghanistan needs to show more progress on cash recoveries from Kabul Bank shareholders in order to satisfy fully the IMF's requirements. Lack of progress by the time of the IMF program's first review in June would send a decidedly negative signal in advance of the Tokyo Conference in July, where future levels of donor assistance for Afghanistan will be discussed. 21

Asset recovery remains a major concern. The total cost that the Afghan government is attempting to recover is $935 million (this number may be revised when the results of the March 2012 Kroll audit are released.) The IMF has not given the government a specific amount that it must recover, but they have clearly indicated that the government must do more. To date, only about 10% of the approximately $900 million losses have been recovered in cash, and the prospect of future recovery – without significant political will – is unlikely. Even with political will, the reality is that the value of the assets, consisting of real estate in the UAE, has declined.

Kabul Bank, not unlike some other financial institutions, was deemed Kabul Bank “too big to fail.” Its restructure now consists of two banks, a good was deemed bank (New Kabul Bank) and a bad bank (holding the toxic assets of the original Kabul Bank). The former is now run by the Afghan “too big to government, with the intent for privatization once suitable investors fail.” can be found, a process that is going slowly.

The banking sector remains weak, and once Standard Chartered completes the closure of its office, there will be limited foreign presence. The Afghan International Bank (AIB) is part-owned by the Asian Development Bank, and there are a couple of investment companies, including one that is American-owned and one that is Afghan-owned. The Arian Bank, owned by two Iranian banks, is less positively viewed than the others. The Aga Khan Foundation owns just over 50% of the First MicroFinance Bank, and the Aga Khan Fund for Economic Development UK, along with the State Bank of Pakistan owns the Habib Bank, Ltd.

The Road to Tokyo

This July, Tokyo will host a ministerial conference, which will be attended by 70 nations, international organizations and other major donors, to address the international community’s commitments and support for Afghanistan’s sustainable economic development through the Transformation Decade (2015-2024).

To understand the agenda of the Tokyo Conference, it is helpful to take a step back and review how the international community arrived at this juncture. To support Afghanistan development, a series of conferences have been held to discuss, pledge and evaluate foreign assistance. The most recent such meeting was held in Bonn Kabul fruit vendor last December. At this meeting, specific attention was placed on putting in place a number of reforms to promote critical goals such as transparency, private sector growth, and reduction in corruption. It was also understood by the International Security Assistance Force, the United States and partner countries that, while there would be a transition to Afghan security leadership by the end of 2014, the international community would continue to have an “enduring” role in Afghanistan’s economic development until at least 2024.

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A key issue is the economic impact of the military drawdown. Widely accepted forecasts suggest that the country’s average GDP growth could fall from 9% per year to 5% or less. According to earlier World Bank analysis, the government needs approximately $7 billion annually to address the gap between revenue and necessary spending. Efforts to identify the security (military and police) needs ahead of the May NATO Summit in Chicago have focused around a figure of $4.1 billion. The Afghan government is expected to contribute $500 million for security funding and donors would provide the balance. As of August 5, 2011, the United States has pledged $56 billion (66% of total), of which $37 billion has been disbursed since 2002. (See the Appendix “Afghanistan Civilian and Military Assistance Update” for a schedule of donor nations pledges and disbursements.)

While donor countries recognize the need for their financial support, there is a growing belief that there needs to be more evidence that the Afghan government is committed to taking the right steps to create a framework in which the private sector can grow and investment is rewarded. Donors want to see progress on a wide range of necessary reforms outlined in previous agreements, in the IMF program, and in the Afghan government's own paper for last December's Bonn Conference.

Some have suggested that President Karzai and certain advisors believe that the international community has already made such a large investment that future support would not be withheld. Others, however, believe that at a time when donor countries’ economies are hurting, this confidence in continuing support may be misplaced.

In closing, the question driving the agenda is whether the participants at the Tokyo Conference will take the long view, recalling the terrible results that occurred after the international community ignored Afghanistan in the early 1990s, and look at the larger picture to support Afghanistan’s development imperatives? Or will each country’s own economic woes and “Afghan fatigue” reduce or eliminate their contributions? - Jim Falk

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Meeting at the the American University of Afghanistan with the American Chamber of Commerce in Afghanistan

Our delegation was warmly welcomed by Dr. C. Michael Smith, president of this first private, not–for-profit institution of higher . The University received its charter in 2004, following the proposed creation first suggested by Dr. Sharif Fayez (then Afghan Minister of Higher Education) in 2002. The university operates on the U.S. liberal arts model, was funded by grants from the U.S. Embassy, and its interim campus is located on 5 acres of land in Kabul.

We were introduced to a group of students in the Bernice Nachman Marlowe Library and were immediately impressed with their outstanding English language skills; clearly attributable to the Foundation Studies Program (FSP), which prepares students for the “high expectations of American style, English only, university degree programs.” The program also develops the high level of language skills that will enable the students to take on major employment positions in Afghanistan or abroad.

AUAF Master Plan: Yost Grube Hall Architecture in collaboration with Kabul-based Studio Zarnegar. Construction recently began on this new 75-acre international campus. Undergraduate studies prepare students for degrees in business administration, information technology and computer science, and political science and public administration. The graduate program offers the Master of Business Administration degree, and Stanford University recently launched an introductory legal training course based on the first new text in decades dedicated to the legal system in Afghanistan.

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The Professional Development Institute was established in 2006 to meet the training needs of professionals in Afghanistan and the region: from private sector to government and NGO’s. And – hats off to Goldman Sachs and the Thunderbird School of Global Management for the implementation of a women’s entrepreneurship training program on campus.

For spring 2012, AUAF has enrolled 879 full time students on campus and an additional 898 part-time students in professional development courses, with women accounting for 21% of the full time student body. We appreciated the opportunity to meet some of the faculty, students and administration, and enjoyed AUAF’s warm hospitality and a delicious Afghani meal while visiting the campus.

All good wishes to Dr. Smith and his impressive team of educators!

Coupled with our delegation’s visit to the American University of Afghanistan, we were able to meet with Dr. Elspeth Smith, Executive Director of the American Chamber of Commerce in Afghanistan. Affiliated with the U.S. Chamber system, this nascent chapter now belongs to the network of accredited AmChams around the world.

Dr. Smith organized an opportunity for our delegation to meet with some of the members of the 40 current organizations, corporations, companies, firms, programs, universities and NGO’s that comprise the membership to date. Many sectors of the business community have the opportunity to affiliate and profit from the services available to them as members.

Communicating the “real business story” and encouraging private businesses and investment are the challenges facing Dr. Smith today. We hope that greater media promotion and communication will open doors to additional membership in this new member of the U.S. Chamber system. - Mimi Gregory

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Meeting with Members of Parliament

Our delegation met with members of the House of the People (Wolesi Jirga), the National Assembly, in a committee room at Parliament. They spoke through a translator with the following summary of each legislator’s views. Raihana Azad Fawzia Raoufi MP, Wolesi Jirga MP, Wolesi Jirga

Afghans appreciate Americans and The Panjwai shootings were very cruel, have a place in their hearts for them. an act of many not one, and we want In particular, women in Parliament the U.S. government to investigate it owe much to Americans. The year seriously. Ten years ago when the 2014 will be very important. Many transitional government of President Afghans are very concerned that Karzai came to power, with assistance conditions will return to pre-2001 from the international community status. We have made lots of (supported 50-60% by the United States achievements here and they exceed alone), there was relative peace, but the mistakes. We want to sign an agreement soon, which will be now there is insecurity. Achievements over the past ten years in our mutual interest. We need peace so that government enjoys include the constitution of 2003, presence of women in Parliament respect among the people. There has been so much fighting with (69 in the Wolesi Jirga and 29 in the Meshrano Jirga), thousands of no results so the peace must be monitored by the International girls in school, freedom of the press and freedom of speech. Basic Community to assure long-term security. We need U.S. help in human rights have been achieved; their prior suppression was due intelligence for our security. We seek your help in getting women to the problems attributable to long years of war. While the into more influential positions. Presently there is only one economy has improved, people still live in poverty. The transition of governor and one mayor who are women. power can be successful but we need help in strengthening Afghan army and security forces. Neighboring countries have great influence in Afghanistan.

Anar Kali Hunaryar Mahmoud Kahn Senator, Afghan Parliament MP, Wolesi Jirga

She agrees with those who are Although there is no doubt that night critical of the United States in the operations have helped combat Panjwai shootings. She did not terrorism, a recent traditional Jirga has expect such an act from the U.S., suggested that operations be stopped if which is similar to acts carried out the soldiers are going to be careless. In by the Taliban. We expect that the the recent past we have complained that perpetrators will be punished, not our closest neighbors have sent suicide just an insane finding that will let all squads to disrupt and kill us. But lately involved go free. Much has been achieved in the past ten years incidents have occurred on the part of the United Sates that we such as women in the cabinet, judiciary and parliament. Girls are couldn’t even have imagined of our neighbors. In Panjwai, two going to school. 2014 is very important; the international forces groups of soldiers killed innocent people and only one person is will be leaving and we will have national elections. We don’t want being held. We do not accept that this was the act of only one to be abandoned in that year. We fear that women may become person and our investigation proves otherwise. On the economic a scapegoat in peace negotiations and lose the gains they have front, it is an unfair practice when American companies get achieved. contracts and then don’t pay their Afghan subcontractors, particularly if there are problems. These are often problems not the fault of the Afghans, but they are the ones who do not get paid.

In Summary Three of the four Parliamentarians spoke harshly about the Panjwai killings, expressing concern that it was not like the Americans to do it, and it was not true that only one perpetrator was involved. Yet, all four of them recognize the social progress of the past ten years and credit the U.S. and the international community for many things. Each expressed fear that we might abandon them at the end of 2014. They do not want that and seek a long-term assistance agreement. - Ken Furst

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Meeting with Deputy Minister of Finance for Policy Shafiq Qarizada

The Deputy Minister for Policy, Shafiq Qarizada, explained Shafiq Ahmad Qarizada that his fairly new department opened only 2 -1/2 years ago as part of the Kabul Conference initiative. It is primarily • M.A. Degree in General responsible for Afghanistan’s National Developmental Management, Preston Strategy (ANDS), providing coordination between the University government and the international community. In addition, his • Experience at ministries of Finance, Education, Rural department provides civilian technical support and Rehabilitation & procurement for all other ministries. Development, and Public Works Currently, the department is developing and implementing • Worked at World Bank Kabul the 22 national development priorities within the ANDS as • Experience with United Nations’ programs in presented and agreed upon at the Kabul Conference. The Afghanistan and Pakistan Afghan government is fully committed to developing these national policy priorities according to a three-year implementation plan. Some of these priorities are based on already successful programs started by the Afghan government.

Mr. Qarizada made the following points regarding the 22 national policy priorities:

• A cluster mechanism was developed for all government ministries to work together in developing the national priority initiatives. With the help of the U.S., his department provides technical support and makes “cluster coordinators” available to all the other ministries. • Eleven of the 22 priorities are fully developed and ready for implementation. They were finalized in consultation with the international community by the Joint Coordination and Monitoring Board (JCMB), which confirms and approves the priorities. The JCMB is co- chaired by the Minister of Finance and the Special Representative of the U.N. Secretary General. • Of the remaining national priorities, four are endorsed in principle, and seven are in various stages of development and approval. All 22 national priorities must be finalized before the Tokyo Conference in July 2012. • The Policy department’s progress on the national priorities is transparent through regular reporting on its website (Kabulprocess.com). • The implementation cost will be $14.9 billion. As of February, current commitments from donors stand at $5.4 billion. Although all of the requested funding has yet to be pledged, Mr. Qarizada expressed confidence that it will be pledged. Japan has already committed $5 billion. More than 40 other countries are donors, including the U.S. (the largest), followed by Japan, Germany, the U.K., Canada, and India. Arab countries, while supportive, are not significant donors. The Deputy Minister warned, however, that the international community should not just re-pledge existing commitments (as has happened in the past), but also commit new funds.

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Mr. Qarizada indicated that previously the international community presented the Afghan government with already developed plans, with no coordination between the international community and the government. Today more coordination takes place.

The Deputy Minister mentioned that some members of the international community felt that 22 national strategic priorities were too many to develop and implement. In response to this criticism, he explained that the Afghan government has been working on these priorities full-time for the past two years, and it would be unrealistic to withdraw any priorities. Even now, there are some critical issues that are not covered, such as public health. He stressed that all of the national programs are real and Kabul traffic urgent priorities for Afghanistan. If funding is reduced for any reason, the Deputy Minister noted that the government will not cut any of the priorities, but will sequence each project according to need.

Another major accomplishment is the establishment of a government accountability mechanism, which requires each ministry to develop an action plan on a quarterly basis. Mr. Qarizada’s department integrates these into a final report, which is shared with the international community and the Afghan population. This is the first time that such reporting has been carried out in Afghanistan.

Other responsibilities of the Policy department include developing capacities in other ministries for placing international advisors, ensuring proper procurement, and organizing donor conferences.

Mr. Qarizada said, despite the international community’s fear that capacity in Afghanistan is low or non-existent, that this is no longer true.

However, Afghanistan faces a number of challenges:

• Higher education. The overall capacity and quality of education are low. Current university capacity is about 125,000 thousand students, with nearly 35,000 graduates per year. Technical and vocational training are becoming more important; Mr. Qarizada stressed that the country cannot have every high school graduate go to university and that alternatives such as vocational training and private institutes will need to be developed. • Corruption. While not denying its existence, he disagrees that it’s as high as reported. The Ministry of Finance is committed to fighting corruption and has internal mechanisms in place to ensure against it. • Competitive hiring processes. Hiring processes across all ministries and other government institutions will soon be done through a competitive process. All ministries will undertake a new “pay and grade” process wherein all positions will be reviewed and a competitive hiring practice installed. A commission that will include people from outside a given ministry or government institution will do the actual hiring. Mr. Qarizada believes that only a small percentage of government jobs is not yet covered by this process.

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• Foreign Investment. Mr. Qarizada stated that the Ministry of Commerce is working on creating a positive environment for foreign investments and helping overseas companies open and operate businesses in Afghanistan. He also noted that foreign companies would not face any challenges from Islamic accounting requirements, as Afghanistan’s banking system is the same as the West’s.

Turning to the issue of Kabul Bank, the Deputy Minister stated that the government is working on asset recovery and that some people have been jailed. He predicted that the government will recover some but not all of the assets, especially as the real estate market – where much of the missing funds was invested – is depressed. He believes there would not be restrictions on either foreign investment or foreign purchase of the New Kabul Bank. - L.J. Stambuk

Meeting with Deputy Minister of Agriculture Abdul Ghani Ghuriani

As we entered the grounds where the Ministry of Agriculture is located, we immediately noticed a difference from other government offices that we visited. The campus, which contained several large buildings, was open and spacious, scattered with gardens. The buildings appeared to be in good condition, and our bright and welcoming meeting room reflected the important role of the Ministry of Agriculture in Afghanistan’s reconstruction and development.

Mr. Asif Rahimi, considered to be one of his country’s most innovative and effective administrators, is a graduate of the University of Nebraska at Omaha, and has led the Ministry since 2008. Called away to an urgent meeting at the last moment, we were briefed instead by Deputy Minister Abdul Ghani Ghuriani and Eleven of the other members of his staff. Ministry’s Mr. Mateen, Director General, General Directorate of Planning and employees Policy and a Fulbright Scholarship alumnus (and currently serving as President of the Fulbright Alumni Association of Afghanistan), are Fulbright explained that since Minister Rahimi’s appointment, the Minister has Fellow worked to build a single national agricultural framework composed of four clusters: 1) National Water and Natural Resource Management; alumni. 2) Competitive Market Development; 3) National Rural Access Program; and 4) National Rural Solidarity Program. Within these clusters, subcategories include: irrigation, environmental protection, food security, and market development.

The Ministry’s priorities are: 1) natural resource management; 2) agricultural investment; 3) developing a credit program; and 4) developing a land-lease program.

To reach these goals, the Ministry has been committed over the past three years to attracting highly qualified staff, with graduates in all areas of agriculture as change agents, and shifting focus from the national to the provincial level. (Eleven of the Ministry’s employees are Fulbright Fellow alumni.) The Ministry is emphasizing programs that are designed to increase productivity with new technologies that increase productivity, while strengthening capacity within the department to employ these new technologies. 29

Mr. Zamir, Director General of Program and a former Humphrey’s Scholar who studied at California State University East Bay and Preston University, described how the Legal Analysis Department is currently working to develop policies and procedures in more than 100 different areas. Successfully passed legislation includes seed law, deed policy, and forest law, to name a few.

Agriculture represents an area of significant potential, and the Ministry is striving to restore the nation’s agricultural output to past levels. In the 1970’s, 80% of the country’s GDP and employment came from agriculture, which brought the nation close to self-sufficiency. Today, agriculture remains the base of the economy with 70-80% of the rural population working as farmers. Farming is the occupation of 70-80% of the rural

population. One noteworthy project is the Afghanistan Peace and Reintegration Program, which is one of 18 successful projects undertaken to date. It was created to provide ex-combatants and former Taliban a way to reintegrate as productive members of Afghan society. By laying down their weapons, participants in the program are provided with thirty-year contracts on land where they can grow fruits, nuts, and other marketable products. These contracts provide income as well as support for future generations.

Another point of pride for the Ministry was Afghanistan’s star performance at the 2011 International Trade Fair in India. Afghanistan won the gold for the most-visited pavilion, attracting 50,000 visitors over three days, and selling out of all its available products, including giant pomegranates, dried fruits, and nuts.

But Afghanistan also faces major challenges in the agricultural sector. These include:

1. The widespread destruction of Afghanistan that resulted from a decade of conflict, which required rebuilding its agricultural capacity from the ground up. The process of moving from donor-supported to internally driven is a long one but progress is being made.

2. Linking farmers to markets, providing farmers with credit, and creating solutions to food storage problems. Bamiyan, a major potato producer, is a good example of the latter. The lack of cold storage facilities used to result in an annual 90-95% production loss. Now, the introduction of modernized food storage systems has reduced losses significantly and, in 2011, Bamiyan increased its yield 20% from the prior year. Income rose from $1,800 to $4,000 per seasonal year. Bamiyan farmers now have the potential of becoming the richest farmers in Afghanistan.

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3. Managing water resources is another challenge. Last year the country suffered a significant drought, with 17 provinces facing severe drought. Afghanistan lacks good catchment facilities and water is wasted in floods or lack of water resources. (Though the country had a greater than average snowfall this year – reducing the immediate danger of drought – it remains a chronic problem.)

The Ministry of Agriculture is responsible for supplying food to provinces suffering from drought. Last year, the emergency food program was very successful and, as an agency, it learned how to provide aid to even the most remote areas where roads are blocked for weeks and months during the winter.

4. Afghanistan has a complicated history of land ownership and inheritance, and much needed reforms are underway. Typically farmers are small landholders and commercial farming is not common. Land transferred through inheritance commonly gets split into increasingly smaller and less sustainable plots.

There are also efforts underway for commercial farming, and the Ministry is creating a transparent process for potential investors. Each year, it hopes to make an additional 25,000 hectares of land available for commercial farming. Pomegranate is one example of successful crop substitution.

5. Crop substitution for opium: According to Mr. Rahimi, while opium obviously has a good

market, farmers aren’t benefitting much more from it than from wheat, raisins, apricots and other substitutes. The winners in the opium trade are the middlemen and traders. However, the Taliban and others often force farmers to grow poppies, using a scheme known as “forward contracting.” For example, the farmer needs money and agrees to grow poppies for cash in advance. He then becomes indentured to the opium traders when trying to repay the loans. The Agricultural Ministry is introducing credit for farmers as a way to get around this problem. Within the past year, $25 million in low- interest loans was disbursed to farmers.

One example of successful crop substitution is pomegranates. Pomegranate farmers can sell their product at an average income of $15,000 per hectare versus $8,000 for comparable poppy cultivation. But to guarantee success, crop substitution programs require community engagement and ways to link farmers to markets.

In conclusion, it is clear that one road to economic sustainability and national security is through the farm land of Afghanistan. There is every reason to be optimistic that agriculture is one of the surest ways to improve the lot of large numbers of the Afghan people, and that the policies and programs currently underway will be successful under the Ministry’s talented leadership. - Laura Dupuy

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Shura with Young Program Alumni hosted by Ambassador Crocker

The shura (Arabic for consultation) organized by Ambassador Ryan Crocker at his residence brought together a dozen Afghan students and young professionals who have participated in one of the Embassy’s several English language, youth exchanges, fellowships or Seeds of Peace programs. Several of the students had come to the U.S. to study for a year or a semester, while others participated in English-language training in India and other neighboring countries.

It was an animated, co-ed group, eager to share their views, particularly when asked what were their main concerns. Among those were:

• Worries about the future after a U.S. drawdown in 2014. • The consequences of a peace process with the Taliban. • Education and unemployment. • The need for peace. • Relations with Pakistan.

Elaborating on the post-2014 climate, Amb. Crocker assured the alumni that although security will transition to Afghan forces then, it does not mean the end of an international presence. According to Amb. Crocker, nothing in the Lisbon Agreement (the agreement on transition of security responsibility to Afghan National Security Forces by 2014) says that there will no longer be international forces in Afghanistan after 2014. Strategic Partnership Agreement negotiations currently underway are discussing the nature of U.S. engagement during the 2015-2024 transformation period. (The SPA was subsequently initialed by Amb. Crocker and Afghanistan’s National Security Advisor on April 22.)

Regarding the Taliban, Amb. Crocker emphasized that any negotiations with the Taliban are Afghan-led and subject to three conditions: 1) a complete break with al- Qaida; 2) a complete end to violence; and 3) acceptance of Afghanistan’s constitution, which includes respect for women.

The Taliban reintegration process has enjoyed some success so far, with approximately 4,000 Taliban foot soldiers First graduating class of AUAF in May 2011. (Christian laying down their arms and reintegrating with Science Monitor) their communities.

Education was a key concern for the alumni, particularly for the girls who worry about their opportunities once the international community reduces its presence. Specifically, the girls believe that families are more willing to let their sons go to school; security concerns in some areas keep students home, while others need to send sons and daughters to work rather than to school; and the qualifying exams to get into a public university, such as Kabul University, are very difficult. (Only one quarter of students who took the qualifying exam for Kabul University 32

passed this year.) In addition, most students can’t afford private education, particularly the prestigious American University of Afghanistan, which several students at the shura attend.

Students felt that although Afghanistan had many schools, many were of low quality, and the public schools lack music and arts programs. Those classes are offered only in private centers, which again becomes a question of affordability.

Another consequence of the lack of access to good, affordable public education is the appeal of madrassas as alternatives. One student noted that those studying in madrassas or those who are uneducated or unemployed are susceptible to joining al-Qaida. As a participant stated: “When a school door is open, a jail door is closed.” Only one Even without education, the students agreed that boys enjoyed greater opportunities for employment than girls did. quarter of students taking There was a general consensus that the country needed to make education a national priority. They want more affordable, quality the qualifying education and asked for U.S. help in making scholarships available. exam for Kabul Amb. Crocker has doubled the number of Fulbright Fellows for Afghanistan. (USAID also has an active scholarship program, and University $110 million is budgeted for education in FY 2012.) A more passed this comprehensive list of USAID’s accomplishments in education can be year. found on the U.S. Embassy, Kabul’s website: http://kabul.U.S.embassy.gov/U.S.aidd50.html)

Most of the students agreed that peace was paramount in providing the climate in which education, business, and democracy can flourish. Without peace, there is no security, and without security none of the former can be realized. One student stated that four million students in the southern part of Afghanistan cannot attend school due to security issues.

Pakistan was another topic on everyone’s minds. Key concerns include the sense that Iran and Pakistan are “using Afghanistan as a pawn in their chess game.” They feel that Afghanistan has been a good friend to Pakistan, but Pakistan has not always played by the rules. Their fear is that Afghanistan will revert back to 2001 should the U.S. leave and Pakistan gain an upper hand.

When asked how to repair the relationship with Pakistan, most students expressed suspicion of Pakistan’s interests in Afghanistan and some felt Afghanistan shouldn’t even negotiate with Pakistan. “Border and territorial issues will always prevent a true peace.” Moreover, some believe that if Afghanistan does develop a strong national army, it should take back the Durand Line.

Students also wondered why the U.S. isn’t pressuring Pakistan to close the madrassas that only serve to create terrorists.

Two other issues of concern touched upon by the alumni are widespread corruption and unequal budget distribution among Afghanistan’s provinces.

Ambassador Crocker reassured the shura participants that the U.S. gets their message and plans to stay engaged with Afghanistan for a long time. We learned a lesson from the disaster of not

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staying engaged after the Soviets left. But, he also told the students that they themselves were a big part of the answer to Afghanistan’s future. The United States has invested in the youth of the country, and it’s up to them to create a very different future than the one their parents and grandparents had to suffer through.

Ending on an upbeat note, one woman declared: “I know we can do it. In the past, my family lost hope. But now we feel we can do it.” - Maria Zammit

Roundtable Discussion with Afghan Media Owners & Publishers on Freedom of the Press/Development of the Media

Eight members of the Afghan media joined us at the Embassy for a wide-ranging discussion that covered the role of advertisers and government, censorship, and the specific challenges faced by women journalists.

Any discussion of the media in Afghanistan must take into account that a decade ago there was no radio nor television and basically no print media Successful - unless it followed to the letter restrictions imposed by the Taliban. Everyone credited and expressed what can only be described as heartfelt warlords appreciation to the United States and the international coalition for their own or support. As they said, with your assistance the media in Afghanistan has 1 control “reached a high level compared to neighboring countries.” their own Conversely, as a group they expressed growing concern about the future, media calling attention to the Strategic Partnership Agreement and noting that this is a critical moment in our relationship. Referring to recent incidents outlets. (Qur’an burning, shooting of 17 Afghans in southern Kandahar), the participants cautioned that people are beginning to forget all of the positive things that the U.S. has done for them.

Today the media consists of approximately 100 local and provincial radio stations and nearly 50 television stations, employing thousands of people. Media penetration is less, however, than you might suspect. Since so much of the country is without electricity, radio in many areas is the predominant medium. 2

There is also a growing sense that some of the advances made after the fall of the Taliban are slowly eroding. Much of the media is owned by private entities with a preordained agenda and reporting is guided very much by the ownership. In fact, successful warlords own or control their own media outlets, giving them both financial resources and, most importantly, a forum to

1 Reporters without Borders ranks Afghanistan at 150 (2011-2012) down from 147 (2010-2011). 2 More than 80% of the country is without electricity, according to official statistics. However, there are illegal hook- ups, so the actual percentage without electricity is less than 80%.

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disseminate their agenda. Put otherwise, the line between propaganda and reporting is becoming increasingly blurred. Further, it is understood that criticism of certain issues, such as corruption or unemployment, will result in government questioning, possible termination of employment, reduction in advertising revenue or severe threats.

The journalists also asserted that they are not allowed to name defendants in highly-charged political cases; that there is a lack of public commitment to publicize the facts of a case and bring wrong-doers to justice. They also believe that Iran and Pakistan exert censorship on the press. For example, Iran complained to the Afghan government about a reporter who challenged a statement by the Iranian ambassador, and the reporter was later arrested.

That the international media focuses its coverage on the ravages of war rather than achievements in education and economic growth is a source of frustration. They believe that only a part of Afghanistan’s story is being told. They believe, too, that a role of media is to empower citizens to rein in power but, because the media is so controlled, this is not happening as much as it could. Because of the rural nature of Afghanistan, people are often unaware of some of the changes taking place. Media could have a bigger role in informing and educating Afghan citizens about reforms but this does not seem to be the case.

The media in Afghanistan is largely male-dominated which sways the coverage. Moreover, the strict conservatism of Afghan culture restricts women’s ability to carry out their profession, since travelling unescorted or at night is frowned upon and is treacherous. A prominent news anchor was recently killed and there have been documented instances of other journalists losing their lives because of controversial coverage. Just within the last few weeks, the Ministry of Culture announced that women journalists needed to wear headscarves and their make-up should be limited. We were told that President Karzai’s indication of his support for these measures is worrisome, especially in light of other recent pronouncements from the Palace. Notwithstanding, there are plans to establish a women-owned television station!

There is no national association to advocate or protect journalists and the international organizations have had little impact. As of today, there is no freedom of information law or access, thereby greatly limiting the media’s ability to serve as a watchdog on government abuse and corruption.

The media representatives did point to some positive achievements, citing the creation of an elected parliament, a constitution, an increase in the number of schools, and the development of an Afghan National Security Force. But they also worry that Afghans aren’t benefitting from these gains as much as they should. They believe that the money and aid are going to the warlords and complained that the international community is not doing enough to get rid of the warlords and take them before the International Criminal Court.

In conclusion, while significant progress has been made, the media is now tightly controlled with little protection offered to professionals. Women seem to be especially at risk if there is not a clear signal from the government to preserve their security and independence. - Jim Falk

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Meeting with United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan Special Representative Ján Kubiš

Appointed to his post in November 2011, Special Representative Ján Kubiš has more than three decades of experience in diplomacy, foreign security policy and international economic relations. His challenge in Afghanistan will be to aid national institutions in their capacity to provide governance, rule of law, development and services. In his March 20, 2012 report to the United Nations Secretary General, Special Representative Kubiš said:

“The profile and work of the United Nations in Afghanistan must continue to evolve to reflect these realities and must take full account of the principles and requirements of the transition Ján Kubiš process… Enhancing Afghan sovereignty and building self-reliance must be at the very core of the way we work.”

Indicators of progress are the increased ability by Afghan authorities and independent electoral institutions to manage to conduct genuine and periodic elections.

Questioned about the recent unfortunate incidents that have damaged the relationship between the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) and the United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA) with the people of Afghanistan, Kubiš said that while they definitely impact the thinking and the environment in the country, “the robust response of U.S. authorities did much to deflect a greater display of violence.”

Discussions with the Taliban are temporarily “suspended” since Ján Kubiš the burning of the Qur’ans, but are expected to continue, and

President Karzai supports the establishment of a Taliban office • Took up position in Kabul in January 2012 in Qatar as a base to help facilitate the recently stalled talks. • Slovakia’s foreign minister Recent summit meetings indicated full support from Iran and ’06-‘09 Pakistan for an “Afghan-led and Afghan-owned” inclusive peace • Three decades of process. The implementation of the Afghan Peace and diplomacy, foreign security policy & international Reintegration Program, with the technical support of the United economic relations Nations Development Program, continues with optimism. experience • Graduate of Moscow State Looking at other challenges, Kubiš discussed the drug problem Institute of International in Afghanistan. Faced with an increase in poppy and heroin Relations • Fluent in Slovak, English, production (Afghanistan is responsible for 90% of the world’s Russian, Czech & French opium), the economic life of the country and the social and governance issues grow more difficult to manage. The U.N. Security Council recently cited the growth in financing of criminal groups and the inevitable aid to terrorism resulting from the drug threat, with the consequent need for a better-trained Afghan police and security force. Tribal leaders must also be included in the process if it is to succeed.

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One key to regional security, as stated on January 16th in the eighth session of the Afghanistan Pakistan Joint Economic Commission, is including neighboring countries Tajikistan, Pakistan, Iran, and Uzbekistan in regional meetings.

Among Kubiš’ other concerns are continued violence against women and girls, which remains pervasive despite legal gains. He also cites the need to take further steps in electoral reforms in preparation for the presidential election of 2014, which coincides with the withdrawal of U.S. and coalition troops. Human rights work continues apace with worries over the increase in civilian deaths from land mines and insurgent attacks. Challenges of this nature are enduring, and confidence-building measures are key to achieving solutions.

Looking ahead, the Tokyo Conference on Afghanistan is scheduled for July 2012, when representatives from more than 40 countries are expected to focus on financial commitments to Afghanistan for the 2014 transition period. This meeting will follow the NATO Chicago Summit on Afghanistan May 20-21, when security commitments to Afghanistan will be discussed.

“In the near future, the Chicago conference must build on the agreed timelines for international troop withdrawal, with concrete commitments on the future shape of and support for Afghan forces. Reinforcing Afghan ownership, institutions and approaches must remain paramount. UNAMA works consistently and patiently for coherent approaches by the international community to support Afghanistan’s development and governance challenges,” Kubiš said.

In summary, Kubiš believes that we must remain committed through transition to lasting security. To sustain this security, we must leave this country with a reasonable presence past 2014, and he doesn’t anticipate it will require a large incremental cost for all the countries already committed to Afghanistan. - Mimi Gregory

Reception for Women of Courage

Ambassador Crocker hosted a reception for 120 on the terrace of his residence to honor this year’s Afghan recipient of the Secretary of State’s Award for International Women of Courage, Ms. . The annual award recognizes women around the globe who have shown exceptional courage and leadership in advocating for women's rights and empowerment, often at great personal risk. Since the inception of this award in 2007, the Department of State has honored 46 women from 34 different countries, and an Afghan woman has been honored every year.

Maria Zammit speaks at International Ms. Durani is director of the Khadija Kubra Women’s Women of Courage event at Association for Kandahar, which offers literacy and training Ambassador Ryan Crocker’s residence. courses for women. She also runs the only Kandahar-based radio station to focus on women’s issues

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and serves on Kandahar’s Provincial Council. Amb. Crocker acknowledged the dangers inherent in her work by those who, on several occasions, have tried to silence her. Two years ago, she almost lost her life in an attack.

Also present at the reception were four previous Afghan winners of the International Women of Courage Award:

• , Chief Prosecutor General of Herat Province One of the • Shukria Asil, Director of the Afghanistan Social Superior women Women Association received a • Soraya Pakzad, Director of Voice of Women Organization • , Director of the Afghan Women Skills warning from Development Center the Taliban in

In addition, the reception included women working in various 2008 not to ministries and NGOs throughout Afghanistan, as well as younger return to her students. All were encouraged to meet and network with each other as they continue their common struggle to fight for women’s rights in village. Afghanistan.

Prior to the reception, the delegation enjoyed lunch and an exchange of views with three of the women in attendance. Among the concerns cited by the women were those of safety and security. One of the women received a warning from the Taliban in 2008 not to return to her village, located less than 20 miles from Kabul.

They also noted that President Karzai has only one woman advisor and no women among his policy team. They believe that there has been a change for the worse in Afghan mentality toward women since the 1970’s, attributing it to recent Pakistani and Iranian immigrants, who have negatively influenced attitudes.

One effort to engage men and women in joint activities is through Community Development Councils. Also, the National Solidarity Program, supported by the World Bank and covering 45,000 villages, works to include women in local shuras.

The women also criticized the Ulema Council, a powerful body funded by the government and composed of religious scholars. USAID has embarked on a program to send members of the Ulema Council to visit progressive Muslim countries, such as Malaysia, to understand the role of women there.

All voiced appreciation for the support of the United States and the international community for women’s rights. - Maria Zammit

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Meeting with Opposition Leader Hanif Atmar

Mr. Atmar is a founding member of the Rights and Justice Party (RJP), which was formed in 2011. He held numerous high ministerial positions in the Karzai government, the last being Minister of Interior. President Karzai removed him from that position following the attacks on the June 2010 Afghan Peace Jirga. He spoke to us on a wide range of subjects. He and his party are in opposition to the government of Hamid Karzai.

Mr. Atmar’s Background Hanif Atmar

Mr. Atmar began his involvement in his country’s affairs as a young adult, working for the KHAD – an Afghan security and intelligence agency with strong ties to the Soviet KGB. After the fall of Kabul to Afghan Mujahedeen, he left for the United Kingdom to attend the University of York where he earned a diploma in Information Technology and Computers and an M.A. in Public Policy, International Relations and Post-War Reconstruction Studies.

In 2002, he became one of the youngest members of the Transitional Government as Minister of Rural Rehabilitation & Development, and in 2004 was confirmed in the same position in the cabinet of the newly elected President Hamid Karzai. In 2004, he moved to become the Minister of Education and in 2008 became the Minister of Interior.

Rights and Justice Party

Afghanistan does not have a tradition of political parties, but rather groups of individuals who coalesce around a leader based on loyalty to a Mujahedeen, a warlord or an ethnicity.

The RJP believes that the policies of the Karzai have erred in the following areas:

• Relations with the supporting international community (i.e., the U.S., NATO and other allies). • Positions Afghanistan has taken with Iran and Pakistan, two neighboring countries that agitate and support the Taliban and other militants. • Lack of support of the rights of women in Kabul society. Specifically, the government is betraying commitments to Afghan women by appeasing fundamentalists to gain their support. • Acceptance of, rather than cracking down, on corruption, especially by favoring friends and cronies through selective prosecutions. • Inconsistent application of the Rule of Law, bending it for political or self-serving purposes.

It is important to note that these criticisms are actually criticisms of the way Afghanistan has been governed over time. The RJP wants to take advantage of progress made on many fronts 39

over the past ten years and use them to move Afghanistan toward a functional democracy. They believe that their manifesto and goals tie in closely with Islamic traditions and promote human rights and equality under the rule of law.

Following are specific comments Mr. Atmar made and positions he and the RJP take to continue to improve the lives and conditions of Afghan people:

Relations with the international community of support

• Despite recent setbacks, Afghans are extremely grateful to the American people for their sacrifices, money and lives lost. No other nation has ever been so respected by the people and this feeling is widespread throughout the country. • America and its allies should stay the course so that the gains of the past ten years are not lost. This means securing an agreement beyond the 2014 troop drawdown.

Relations between Afghanistan and Iran and Pakistan

President Karzai was irresponsible in allowing Iranian president Ahmadinejad to criticize the relationship between the U.S. and In 2004, Mr. Afghanistan in his presence as he did at the annual meeting of the Atmar told Organization of Islamic Cooperation held in Dushanbe, Tajikistan in late March. The Afghan Senate issued a statement criticizing Secretary of President Karzai for permitting Ahmadinejad to voice these Defense Donald sentiments publicly in his presence. Rumsfeld that • Without Pakistan’s support there would be no insurgency. “Pakistan is not The insurgency is supported by high level Inter-Services Intelligence, military and government officials. He your friend.” stressed, however, there can be no peace without Pakistan being an active participant in the solution. In 2004, Mr. Atmar told Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld that “Pakistan is not your friend.”

Peace and Resolution to the Security Problem

The RJP supports peace with Pakistan, Iran and the Taliban, but is against bringing back a Taliban regime. Further positions include:

1. RJP believes the U.S. has two options with Pakistan: • Wage war – not likely and not preferred. • Diplomatic surge (as suggested by Secretary of State Hillary Clinton). In this scenario, diplomatic pressure will be exerted on Pakistan through China and Saudi Arabia, both of whom have great leverage on Pakistan. China needs Pakistan to counter the strength and position of India. Saudi Arabia needs Pakistan to counter Iran should the latter gain nuclear weapons. In that case, the Saudis will feel compelled to purchase nuclear weapons and Pakistan (which needs the money) would be the source.

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2. RJP believes its goals combine with President Obama’s statement that Pakistan must give consideration to U.S. security interests. From the viewpoint of the RJP, the U.S should insist that Pakistan discontinue its support of all Afghan militants. 3. RJP believes in the bottom line used by Mr. Atmar and General Stanley McChrystal, “We cannot kill our way out of this war.”

Education, Rights and Progress for Women in Society

The RJP believes:

• USAID has spent heavily on improving women’s issues with too little results for the $2 billion spent. For this Mr. Atmar was critical, not for the effort, but for the lack of effectiveness due in part to misunderstanding how to create positive change in a traditional society such as that of Afghanistan. • Health services must continue to be improved. • Education of girls must continue to receive focused attention. There is a supply issue in Afghanistan in that more families that would like to have their girls educated, but there is a lack of adequate school facilities. For example, one-room schools make it difficult for girls in issues such as sanitation. There is also an acute shortage of teachers, particularly women teachers. • Educate Afghan women in Islamic rights and laws so men no longer have a monopoly on law. Invest money to train and educate women as lawyers, judges, and police officers in order to better enforce their rights.

Mr. Atmar came across as a thoughtful and well-informed political leader who we suspect will be a major player in Afghanistan for many years to come. - Ken Furst

Meeting with Ambassador Stephen G. McFarland and Brigadier General Dixie Morrow on Rule of Law

General Dixie Morrow described the Rule of Law Office as a truly integrated civilian/military interagency operation. Passionate about her work, she believes that Rule of Law (RoL) can and does make a real difference in a country.

Ambassador Stephen McFarland emphasized the complexity of the environment in Afghanistan and how the implementation of rule of law is fundamental for stability and the long-term success of military operations. Our main interests in implementing the RoL – which mesh with broader U.S. objectives – are: 1) helping Afghanistan become a country from where the Taliban and other terrorist groups cannot launch actions against the U.S., and 2) helping Afghanistan improve its overall quality-of-life.

Rule of Law strategic objectives must have parity with the Afghan National Priority Programs (NPPs). There are three sources of law in Afghanistan: 1) regular (formal) law, 2) Sharia law, and 3) traditional/customary law. The civil system does not use juries, but instead relies on a 3-judge 41

panel. No case is final until it is heard by an appellate court (similar to Italian law and the Napoleonic Code).

The RoL’s Office immediate priorities are:

1) Encouraging the Afghan government to investigate a major corruption case to demonstrate accountability and the equitable application of the law (also a major tenet of Sharia law). 2) Determining how best to support legal institutions, including universities, and encourage the development of legal professionals, especially women. 3) Improving security. The Afghan Judicial Security Unit was recently formed to protect the three top courts in Afghanistan, as well as traveling judges. Security for judges is a serious problem, which is one reason why women refuse to become judges. There are female prosecutors (including a prominent prosecutor from Herat) who face the dual challenges of fighting against corruption and overcoming traditional biases against women.

Women’s issues are particularly critical in Afghanistan, and the RoL Office is working to increase the number of women attorneys, judges and prosecutors. Fundamental to this is training the community to accept women as prosecutors. The path to judgeship is through completing the Law faculty or Sharia faculty, and there are women at both; the Dean of the Sharia Faculty recently informed Ambassador McFarland that he is about to hire several women as professors – a huge step Women in Kabul forward. Currently, 22-25% of post-graduates in legal training is women.

Another problem facing Afghan women is the “moral clause” crime. For example, if a woman is raped, it is defined as a “moral crime.” The victim may be accused of adultery, which is against the law, and then jailed. The U.S. Embassy has formed a group to work specifically on this issue in addition to its many other gender programs.

Capacity building is the focus of most international efforts in Afghanistan, and the Rule of Law Office is no exception. It is concentrating on several key issues:

• Supporting key people at different levels who will play important roles in Afghanistan’s civic society. • Motivating government institutions to use the capacities they already have. • Curbing corruption and patronage. Afghan politicians are busy juggling many issues: the transition, peace talks, upcoming elections, and worrying about their personal futures – thus, they are not as focused on corruption issues. • On the positive side, the RoL has built up the General Attorney’s Office, the High Office of Oversight and Anti-corruption, and the independent anti-corruption Monitoring and Evaluation Commissioner Committee. • Managing activities that range from training judges, developing courts and correctional facilities, as well as working on counter-narcotics and hard activities with DEA, FBI, U.S. Marshalls Service, Department of Homeland Security, U.S. Customs and Border Protection, etc. - L.J. Stambuk 42

Meeting with Commander of the International Security Assistance Force General John R. Allen

General John R. Allen assumed his duties as the Commander of the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) in Afghanistan on July 18th, 2011. The significant points facing ISAF are as follows:

• Maintaining the continuity of the campaign. • Keeping pressure and relentless pursuit of the enemy. • Training the Afghan National Security Forces: Army, Police, and Special Forces. • Shaping the insurgency while preparing the indigenous force to take them on. • Supporting the entire process of transition. • Adhering to the provisions set forth in the Lisbon Summit: “As expressed in the Declaration by the Heads of State and Government of the nations contributing to the UN-mandated, NATO-led International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) in Afghanistan, our ISAF mission in Afghanistan remains the Alliance’s key priority, and we welcome the important progress that has been made. Afghanistan’s security and stability are directly linked with our own security. In meeting with President Karzai, all our 21 partners in ISAF, the United Nations, the European Union, the World Bank and Japan, we reaffirm our long-term commitment to Afghanistan, as set out in our strategic vision agreed at the Bucharest Summit and reaffirmed at the Strasbourg/Kehl Summit. We welcome the valuable and increased contributions made by our ISAF partners and would welcome further contributions. We are entering a new phase in our mission. The process of transition to full Afghan security responsibility and leadership in some provinces and districts is on track to begin in early 2011, following a joint Afghan and NATO/ISAF assessment and decision. Transition will be conditions-based, not calendar- driven, and will not equate to withdrawal of ISAF- Our delegation with Ambassador Crocker troops. Looking to the end of 2014, Afghan forces and General Allen will be assuming full responsibility for security across the whole of Afghanistan. Through our enduring partnership with the Government of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan, we reaffirm our long-term commitment to a better future for the Afghan people.”

General Allen expressed his concern, following his recent testimony on Capitol Hill, that Americans believe the impact from the burning of the Qur’ans and the death of the 17 victims of Staff Sgt. Bales hit like a “meteor from space.” In spite of that, the Afghan National Security Forces understand these incidents were not the result of planned overt aggression, and that the immediate apology by the U.S. helped to mitigate the situation. Far more important to the country is the long-term commitment by coalition forces to secure the country and to allow them to “come out of the Taliban darkness.”

General Allen spoke about the 2014 forced draw down of troops and to the fact that, with the 50 countries represented in NATO and the coalition, he commands the largest war fighting 43

alliance in modern history. While pundits declare that “we just don’t have the time to pull this off,” General Allen believes that we do.

The wild cards in all of this planning are Pakistan and the Taliban. Living in sanctuaries in Pakistan during the winter months, the Taliban are preparing their spring offensive, fearing that they will become irrelevant if they don’t get back into the fight. Many of them disagree with the premise of talks with ISAF and the U.S. and, equally, many do not want a dialog with President Karzai. Living in Pakistan is not their ideal, as NATO’s enduring presence “defeats the Taliban narrative.” General John R. Allen General Allen also cited the improvements in discipline now being • Security Deputy Cmdr. of implemented by Afghan commanders over their forces. But Gen. U.S. Central Command Allen also noted that most of the recruits are illiterate, thus the Jul. ’08-‘11 • Dep. Commanding primary focus is teaching them basic reading and writing skills. General, Marine There is also a need to offset attrition, which has been due to: Expeditionary Force ’06- ‘08 • Difficulty with pay • Principal Dir. Asian & Pacific Affairs, Office of • No leave Secretary of Defense ’03- • Living conditions ‘06 • Bad food • Deployed to Cuba, • Discipline for corruption Balkans & Iraq

• B.S.-Naval Academy ’76, M.S.-Nat’l War College, Further improvements in these key areas will certainly improve ‘98 the capability of the Afghan forces. • Virginia native Clearly the challenges that General Allen faces are broad and often subtle; he impressed us with his compelling presentation and left the clear impression that he believes the Afghan National Security Force can become a highly effective organization able to provide Afghan security.

- Mimi Gregory

Meeting with Minister of Mines Waheedullah Shahrani

While much of Afghanistan’s economy has been stagnated by thirty years of war, Minister of Mines Waheedullah Shahrani was optimistic while describing the impact the mining sector would have on the national economy. Yet, despite estimates of at least $1 trillion in mineral wealth, bringing it to market raises a host of challenges and potential obstacles. For an area that has suffered so much, its geographical location along the collision zone of the Indo-Pakistan and Asian crustal plates may provide it with a path to economic and political stability. Minerals found in substantial quantities in Afghanistan include gold, three kinds of copper, gemstones, lithium, uranium iron ore, cobalt, natural gas and oil, and 13 out of the 17 rare earth metals. Afghanistan has over 90 mineral fields.

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The Ministry forecasts that by 2016 the mining and energy sector will contribute revenues of $1.5 billion and 170,000 jobs; by 2024 it will contribute $4 billion to the government’s revenues and $18-$21 billion or up to 45% of the country’s GDP and 500,000 jobs.

The Minister was quick to credit the Task Force for Business and Stability Operations, which was formed in 2006 by the U.S. Department of Defense to “leverage American and international economic power as a strategic tool for promoting economic stabilization.” USAID has also been instrumental in lending valuable technical assistance and training. The National Extractive Industry Excellence Program, launched in December 2010, is one of the critical benchmarks guiding the mining industry and the management of this ministry. Among its key objectives is the development of a strategy to avoid the so-called “resource curse” and to put Afghanistan on a road to sustainable economic development.

The first significant discovery dates back to 1888 when a British geologist found what today is called the jewel of Afghanistan’s mining sector: the Hajigak iron ore mine. In the 1930’s, American and Swedish geologists made a number of discoveries including oil deposits in the north. In the 1950’s, the Soviet Union dispatched hundreds of geologists and engineers to evaluate and record their findings; their work, which was considered excellent, formed the basis for the United States Geological Survey report that attracted significant attention when announced in 2007. The Aynak copper mine, located in Logar province about 30 miles southeast of Kabul is considered one of the world’s largest, with an estimated worth up to $88 billion. China Metallurgical Group won the bid for a 30-year lease for $3 billion. As we learned in our meeting at the Aga Khan Foundation, this area is the site of hundreds of significant archaeological findings, making excavation even more expensive. Waheedullah Shahrani Hydrocarbons are found in the north in the Afghan-Tajik and Amu Darya basins. China National Petroleum Corporation executed an • Became Minister of oil exploration contract last December for three fields in Amu Mines in Jan. ‘10 Darya. • Minister of Commerce & Industry ’08-‘10 • Advisor to President of The Soviets were particularly interested in what they perceived as Afghanistan on Finance strategic commodities such as copper, uranium and gas. ’05-‘08 Significant natural gas reserves worth approximately $380 million, • First Deputy Governor of was exported to the Soviet Union during the period of its Da Afghanistan Bank occupation. • Lectured for two years in Economics at Richmond University (U.K.) According to Shahrani, the Ministry of Mines was structured and • Academic qualifications administered as a “Soviet” institution. Since arriving at the from U.K. and Pakistan Ministry in early January 2010, he has focused on reform and has restructured the organization along Western standards. Many on his staff speak English fluently and have attended schools in the West. He also stressed that ministry personnel are hired through a competitive process. Anticipating a time when Afghanistan will be the recipient of large sums of money, to learn best practices the Ministry has consulted with a number of other countries that have benefitted from large energy resources such as Kuwait, Indonesia and Chile.

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Until relatively recently, the Ministry operated 13 different bank accounts; in 2011, these were closed and assets were transferred to one account at the Ministry of Finance. Revenues will be booked into this “national” account with the intent of spending the funds as follows: 45% for infrastructure, especially railroads and energy; 20% for education and human development; 7.5% for health services; 2.5% for improving the communities of the site; and 25% for price stabilization to balance years when shortfalls or price fluctuations occur.

Obstacles facing the mining/energy sector include: transportation, since the export of product is hindered by lack of adequate, if any, transportation modes; quality of labor force; and security. Regarding the latter, a Mining Protection Unit consisting of 7,000 men – hired by the Ministry of Interior but operating under the Ministry of Mines – has been established. Units are charged with securing the mining facilities, equipment and personnel. Many of those hired are from villages where the mines are located, thus providing an incentive for the local population to help maintain order. In addition to employment, benefits include improved infrastructure and schools. By 2024, the Transporting, recruiting and retaining a highly skilled workforce are mining and serious challenges confronting the mining industry. Finding secure and efficient supply routes is especially difficult given that energy sector Afghanistan must depend on its neighbors to export its products. could Even today, Afghanistan has practically no rail. Last August, a contribute up single-track railway line of 75 kilometers was opened between Hairatan to Mazar-i-Sharif, opening up access to Uzbekistan; there to 45% of the are plans to extend this line to Kabul. Historically, Afghanistan had country’s GDP. always discouraged railways fearing – probably with justification – that it would facilitate the movement of foreign troops to its territory. A further complication of rail integration is that its neighbors use different gauge rails, thus making it even more difficult to create a contiguous line. As noted in other meetings, this underscores the importance of establishing an effective rail authority to bring coordination to these efforts.

Of particular note is the new Silk Road Initiative, proposed by Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, which aims to integrate Afghanistan’s infrastructure with that of the region. This will create a national resource corridor, which will improve each country’s capability of getting its goods to market and enhancing economic cooperation among neighboring countries.

The Minister and his staff devoted a significant part of their time with us discussing the structure and transparency of the bidding process and how revenues were tracked. By the end of 2012, Afghanistan will enjoy full membership in the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative, which will go far to dispel fears of corruption in developing this sector.

It is beyond the scope of this summary to describe in detail the bidding process, but it should be noted that interested companies are invited to come to the Ministry for three days where they are presented with an overview of the specific project of interest and a description of the company’s capabilities, which is followed by a visit to the prospective site. Outside parties, including a consulting firm based in Virginia, review and audit all bids – ensuring, in principle, that there is no political influence in the review. As the process advances, an Afghan technical team forwards its recommendation to a ministerial committee, which then sends its

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recommendation to the Cabinet for approval and authorization to enter into negotiations with the prospective suitor. Contract summaries are announced in Kabul newspapers as well as papers in the affected local community, providing yet another layer of transparency.

To date, China, India and Canada have been successful in winning bids. U.S. companies have not been at the table due to concerns about security, supply routes and corruption but have been winning contracts for supportive work in the industry. - Jim Falk

Meeting with Minister of Education Ghulam Farooq Wardak

When we visited this bustling Ministry on Saturday morning, lines of people extended through the security gates, hurrying to appointments or standing and talking in groups throughout the compound. After passing through security and several rooms filled with media representatives – waiting for a press conference with the Minister - the delegation was received by Minister Ghulam Farooq Wardak, who is considered to be a possible presidential candidate.

The Ministry is responsible for primary and secondary education. The Ghulam Farook Wardak vision as outlined in the Ministry’s current strategic plan is: “… to develop human capital based on Islamic principles, national and international commitments and respect for human rights by providing equitable access to quality education for all to enable them to actively participate in sustainable development, economic growth, and stability and security of Afghanistan. To do this the Ministry must evolve into a modern, effective, fully funded and accountable public institution that facilitates education opportunities for children and adults, without discrimination, across Afghanistan.” 3

Minister Wardak stressed that his ministry focuses on three issues: nation building, state building, and governance building.

He shared his goal that by 2020 all children in Afghanistan – boys “Once you start and girls alike – will be able to complete a full course of primary teaching girls, education. Currently, they serve 159,000 children per year, with they become plans to increase this to 700,000 children in five years. (Only 12,000 children were in school during the Taliban era.) By 2014, the atom bombs – country plans on 1,400,000 new enrollments, and Minister Wardak you can’t stop is working toward having a school and teacher in every village and them!” cluster of villages. - Minister Wardak

Teachers and teacher training are priorities for the Ministry, and education is mandatory through the ninth grade. In 1978, there was a teacher/student ratio of 35:1; today – after 30 years of war - the ratio is 127:1. Afghanistan needs an additional 50,000 teachers to meet 1978 levels. There are currently 190,000 teachers for 8,400,000 students.

3 Draft Education Strategic Plan 1389-1393: planipolis.iiep.unesco.org/Afghanistan/Afghanistan_NESP_II_2010-2014 47

The Minister responded to questions about Afghanistan’s ability to absorb its graduates into the job market, and the availability of programs to integrate graduates into vocational training and the private sector. The international presence in Afghanistan created thousands of millionaires who forget that education is a vital part of the social fabric. The wealthy, noted the Minister, need peace the most to protect their assets, so they too must be a part of the solution to this problem. He calls for participation by the private sector in all of the educational arenas. Currently, there are 500 private schools in Afghanistan. Minister Wardak repeatedly stated his method to ensure quality control for these schools: 1) regulation; 2) facilitation; 3) certification; and 4) ministerial control.

Ghulam Farooq Wardak Of great interest was his explanation of the challenges of implementing an Islamic curriculum. All schools in • Appointed to his position in Afghanistan (public and private) must follow a prescribed 2008 curriculum, with teachers having the freedom to use other • Ethnic Pashtun from the Wardak books as supplemental tools. The concern is that producers tribe of those books have a bias towards Pakistan and aren’t • Fluent in , , English and “Afghan specific.” Consequently, their pro-Pakistan focus is • Graduated with a degree in counterproductive to national security and creates an anti- Pharmacy from Punjab U.S. ideology. In addition, Wardak sees an influx of books University and a master’s from Iran promoting Iranian ideology. degree in Administration from Preston University in Peshawar, Pakistan Minister Wardak is very proud of the work that his office • First person in his village to has done over the past three years to gain membership in receive a B.A. the Fast Track Initiative available through the Global Partnership for Education, which works to get all children into school for a quality education. The $53 million received by the Ministry for this is being used for pre-schooling, schooling, and post-schooling programs. It provides educational opportunities for all children age 6 to 18. However, there is a current backlog of 10 million school-age children. He stressed his personal belief that there are multiple pathways to an education, and that his ministry will use any viable means to accomplish its goals. Mr. Wardak also believes that higher education is not the answer for everyone, and that vocational training has an important place in the society as well.

Minister Wardak explained that in 2000 the entire curriculum was politicized, and there were no girls or female teachers in the educational system. Today, out of more than nine million students, 40% are girls and 32% of the 201,000 teachers are women. They are working to increase teacher-training capacity; currently, 44% of students studying to be teachers are women. He stated emphatically, “Once you start teaching girls, they become atom bombs – you can’t stop them!”

Not only is educational development critical at the national and state levels, it is also imperative that communities mobilize to take ownership of the education of their youth. In villages around Kabul the country, school management is through a

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shura composed of local people. This has resulted in school protection programs to pressure and prevent the Taliban from coercing parents and teachers to keep their children, particularly girls, from attending school.

Minister Wardak discussed the role of madrassas and how his office is fighting to keep Afghan students from attending ones in Pakistan. Since Islamic education is fundamental to the society, the Ministry is working to transform the 222 religious madrassas in Afghanistan that lack a written curriculum and to increase them to 775 madrassas with a formal curriculum that will consist of: 40% Islamic studies; 40% general studies; 10% computer skills; and 10% language studies. His dream is that in three years, Afghan students will no longer attend madrassas in Pakistan.

Minister Wardak believes that the only way to build a more peaceful world is through education. His energetic and passionate championship of children and adults throughout the country through education will no doubt help advance Afghanistan toward peace. - Laura Dupuy

Meeting with President Hamid Karzai at the Presidential Palace

There is no doubt that our meeting with President Hamid Karzai was a highlight of the week, and it happened only because of the importance that Ambassador Ryan Crocker attached to our delegation’s visit and his strong belief that our understanding of the issues would be greatly enhanced by it.

We met in the President’s private office at the Presidential Palace with the delegation and Ambassador Ryan Crocker.

Mr. Karzai opened our discussion with a summary of the conditions in Afghanistan in which the international community has the greatest involvement: civil society and economic development and security and counter-terrorism.

The President said that with regard to civil society and economic development (health, education, social services, and human rights – including freedom of the press), there has been excellent progress, which has been greatly assisted by the President Hamid Karzai United States and the international community. It is important, he noted, to compare today to the period of Taliban control.

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Among the points he highlighted:

In the education sector, there has been major growth in the number of universities and students earning advanced degrees; additionally, there are now large numbers of students studying abroad.

There have been great advances for media, which now have the freedom to criticize the government without adverse consequences. He joked that there is less push back from criticizing the President than ministries or parliament, so the media spends a lot of time critiquing him. He thinks that this trend to greater press freedom will continue.

With regard to bilateral and international relations, strong ties have been established with other countries, including substantive aid given to Afghanistan beyond the expenditures on security.

Turning to security and counter-terrorism, President Karzai expressed his opinion that the international community has performed less well. “I am a critic,” he said. Over the past two years in particular, too many incidents have inflamed the feelings and diminished the support of the Afghan people towards the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF), giving new momentum to the Taliban and other insurgent groups.

Specifically, the President noted that initially the United States drove the Taliban out of power and forced them to retreat in Pakistan. “I would However, since 2006, the ISAF has not concentrated on the source of have the terrorism, which is the sanctuaries in Pakistan – not Afghan villages. Moreover, the U.S. has given mixed messages; on one hand, it beheaded acknowledges Pakistan’s negative role, but conversely it gives Pakistan (Pakistan) $2 billion in annual assistance. Underscoring this point, he said that two years ago “I would have beheaded (Pakistan) like a dragon.” Although like a he is pleased with the progress and quality of training of the Afghan dragon.” forces, President Karzai said Afghanistan needs a more “robust” army - President Karzai and air force, and that the equipment they are getting from the U.S. and others falls far short of what is needed. As evidence, the President reminded us that when the Soviets left, Afghanistan had an air force of 450 aircraft including jets, helicopters, radar and supporting equipment, and an army of 5,000 tanks and armored vehicles. Today they have none.

The President acknowledged that much of the destruction that had occurred in Afghanistan was the fault of Afghans, during the civil war period.

President Karzai also criticized the night raids conducted by international forces, which in his view impinge on Afghan sovereignty. Along with control over the prisons, President Karzai wants to finalize an agreement to turn over control of night raids to Afghanistan. (Note that since our visit, Memorandums of Agreement were signed on both issues.)

The President also reminded us that initially the war was one on terrorism. Now it is considered to be a battle against insurgency and, as such, is more of an internal problem of Afghanistan’s in which Afghanistan can take the lead with the U.S. and ISAF in supportive roles.

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Turning to the ten years following transition (2015-2024), President Karzai said Afghanistan wants to partner with the U.S. as an equal sovereign nation in which the fight against terrorism continues as needed, and economic and social development continue to assure stability for the Afghan people. He described Afghanistan as a traditional, egalitarian, community-based society and as such, democracy will take root.

President Karzai’s key goals for the next decade, in partnership with the international community, are:

• Continue the war on terrorism with an emphasis on peace. Bring the Taliban under control and find a way for Afghan Taliban to return to their country and give them a meaningful life. • Create dialog with Pakistan, who will always be Afghanistan’s neighbor. The U.S. and NATO will not stop Pakistani terrorism, so Afghanistan needs to recognize the realities on the ground and neutralize Pakistan’s fears. President Karzai believes that there is now a much better relationship with Pakistan than there was three years ago. • Assure that Afghans will lead the battle against the insurgency. • Continue development in social and economic spheres. • Support the advances in women’s rights, an issue that cannot be compromised.

In 2014, President Karzai’s second and final term (according to the constitution) comes to an end. He hopes that after 12 years in office his legacy will be of an Afghanistan that is democratic, stable and peaceful. With those achievements, his legacy would be an excellent one indeed.

- Ken Furst

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Farewell

Watermarked on this page are the faces of the people of the Wakhan Corridor. Their home is found on the Afghanistan trails of the Hindu Kush in harsh lands that bear witness to the ever- growing push of the Pamir Mountains, creeping upwards even now by 2-3 inches each year, merging into the fabled Hindu Kush range.

This country, Afghanistan, sitting astride the collision of the Indo-Pakistan and Asian crustal plates, shares its birth with that of the Himalayas: “the roof of the world.” Rich in minerals - gold, copper, iron and the king: lithium. Do they hold the secret of prosperity for Afghanistan’s future?

Iskander (Alexander the Great) traveled here and rested at Lake Shewa enroute to India. Here he met and fell in love with an angel, the fables say, and returned after his glorious campaigns to be buried near her at the bottom of Lake Shewa.

Many are the rich and illustrious tales of the Silk Road, the Karakorum Highway, the Khyber Pass and the poems of Rudyard Kipling:

When spring-time flushes the desert grass, Our kafilas wind through the Khyber Pass. Lean are the camels but fat the frails, Light are the purses but heavy the bales, As the snowbound trade of the North comes down To the market-square of Peshawar town.

In a turquoise twilight, crisp and chill, A kafila camped at the foot of the hill. Then blue smoke-haze of the cooking rose, And tent-peg answered to hammer-nose; And the picketed ponies, shag and wild, Strained at their ropes as the feed was piled; And the bubbling camels beside the load Sprawled for a furlong adown the road; And the Persian pussy-cats, brought for sale, Spat at the dogs from the camel-bale; And the tribesmen bellowed to hasten the food; And the camp-fires twinkled by Fort Jumrood; And there fled on the wings of the gathering dusk A savour of camels and carpets and musk, A murmur of voices, a reek of smoke, To tell us the trade of the Khyber woke.

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Greater still is the history of the Pashtun tribes. The etymology of the name “Afghanistan,” from the Persian, means “Land of the Afghans.” Afghanistan is also the seat of many great poets of the world such as Maulana Jalaluddin Mohammad Balkhi (Rumi) (1207-1223), Jami of Herat (1414-1492) and more, but the one who stands apart from the traditional is Mirza Hazrat Abul Ma'ni Abdul Qader Baydel, the great court poet of the Moghul Empire founded by Babur in the mid-16th century.

Of the great heroes of the region, we read of Ahmed Shah Durrani, the founder of the Durrani Empire in 1747, and regarded by many to be the founder of the modern state of Afghanistan. He rallied his Pashtun tribes and allies, conquering all of today’s Afghanistan and Pakistan, much of northeastern Iran, and the Punjab region in the Indian subcontinent. His victories are recorded in this poem of his own writing:

By blood, we are immersed in love of you. The youth lose their heads for your sake. I come to you and my heart finds rest. Away from you, grief clings to my heart like a snake. I forget the throne of Delhi when I remember the mountain tops of my Afghan land. If I must choose between the world and you, I shall not hesitate to claim your barren deserts as my own.

And we, 21st Century travelers, were privileged to visit this historic, courageous country.

- Mimi Gregory

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APPENDIX Afghan Civilian-Military Assistance with Percentage of Pledge Disbursed Civilian Assistance Military Assistance Pledge (Millions Disbursed (Millions Rank (Out % of Pledge Rank (Out of Dollars, since of Dollars, since Troops of 49) Disbursed of 48) Donor Country 2002) 2002) Australia 10 369.26 656.1 177.7% 1,550 11 Austria 34 14.00 5.4 38.5% 3 47 Belgium 26 60.00 57.0 95.0% 507 16 Brazil 41 3.00 0.0 0.0% ------Brunei 36 0.00 0.4 No original pledge ------Canada 7 1768.65 1,255.6 71.0% 2,922 6 China 21 252.40 58.2 23.1% --- Croatia 42 2.00 0.0 0.0% 320 21 Czech Republic 25 0.01 102.1 1021400.0% 519 15 Denmark 13 533.00 437.7 82.1% 750 13 Egypt 43 1.20 0.0 0.0% ------Estonia 39 0.00 0.9 No original pledge 163 --- European Union 3 3068.00 2,594.4 84.6% --- 27 Finland 18 152.00 160.4 105.5% 156 30 France 15 134.00 174.5 130.2% 3,935 4 Germany 5 5029.00 761.6 15.1% 4,812 3 Greece 37 15.00 0.5 3.3% 162 29 Hungary 33 1.00 4.6 464.6% 383 19 India 6 1200.00 759.0 63.3% ------Iran 14 672.80 376.9 56.0% ------Ireland 28 28.60 21.4 74.7% 7 45 Italy 11 753.20 539.6 71.6% 3,880 5 Japan 2 7200.00 3,151.6 43.8% ------Kuwait 30 70.00 19.2 27.4% ------Lithuania 32 0.00 5.4 No original pledge 237 24 Luxembourg 31 11.70 10.7 91.1% 11 44 Malta 44 1.00 0.0 0.0% ------Netherlands 8 864.00 1,015.4 117.5% 192 25 New Zealand 27 28.10 33.5 119.4% 191 26 Norway 9 938.00 635.5 67.8% 406 18 Oman 44 11.48 0 0.0% ------Pakistan 35 288.60 0.0 0.0% ------Poland 29 7.20 19.6 271.7% 2,560 7 Portugal 40 2.00 0.2 10.0% 133 32 Qatar 46 30.30 0.0 0.0% --- Russian Fed. 19 239.30 146.6 61.3% ------Saudi Arabia 20 268.20 103.1 38.4% ------Singapore 38 0.00 1.5 No original pledge 21 43 Slovakia 47 5.03 0.0 0.0% 308 22 South Korea 24 85.00 83.0 97.6% 350 20 Spain 16 307.70 194.1 63.1% 1,552 10 Sweden 12 514.60 635.0 123.4% 500 17 Switzerland 23 196.50 102.4 52.1% ------Taiwan 48 33.40 0.0 0.0% ------Turkey 17 143.00 179.6 125.6% 1,786 9 United Arab Emirates 22 97.07 116.8 120.3% 35 40 United Kingdom 4 2897.00 2,221.5 76.7% 9,500 2 United States of America 1 56100.00 37,118.2 66.2% 90,000 1 Vietnam 0 3.46 0.0 0.0% ------Total 84,399.8 53,759.0 132,381

Sources: Civilian assistance numbers are taken from the Afghanistan Ministry of Finance and the military troop contribution numbers are drawn from the NATO/ISAF June 26, 2011 update. ** Jordan is the 48th ISAF contributor, but the scope of its contributions are not public.

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ACRONYMS and GLOSSARY

AIB Afghan International Bank ANDS Afghanistan National Development Strategy ANSF Afghan National Security Forces AUAF American University of Afghanistan CARD Comprehensive Agriculture and Rural Development initiative GDP Gross Domestic Product FSP Foundation Studies Program IMF International Monetary Fund ISAF International Security Assistance Force JCMB Joint Coordination and Monitoring Board ISI Directorate for Inter-Services Intelligence (Pakistan) KGB Komitet gosudarstvennoy bezopasnosti, Committee for State Security (Soviet Union) KHAD Khadamat-e Aetela'at-e Dawlati, State’s Information Service (Afghanistan) MOU Memorandum of Understanding MRRD Ministry of Rural Rehabilitation and Development NATO North Atlantic Treaty Organization NGO Non-government organization NSP National Solidarity Program PAS Public Affairs Section RJP Rights and Justice Party RoL Rule of Law Shura Arabic word for consultation SPA Strategic Partnership Agreement UNAMA United Nations Assistance Mission to Afghanistan UNDP United Nations Development Programme UNICEF United Nations Children’s Fund USAID U.S. Agency for International Development

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