ISSN 0971-9318 HIMALAYAN AND CENTRAL ASIAN STUDIES (JOURNAL OF HIMALAYAN RESEARCH AND CULTURAL FOUNDATION) NGO in Special Consultative Status with ECOSOC, United Nations Vol. 15 Nos. 1-2 January-June 2011 AFGHANISTAN SPECIAL Regional Initiatives to Promote Stability and Development in Afghanistan Shirin Akiner The Rebuilding of Afghanistan Apratim Mukarji Rule of Law and Governance Development Karin Esposito The Need for New Policies in Afghanistan Michael Fredholm Obama’s Af-Pak Strategy and Implications for South Asia Uma Shankar The Afghanistan Conundrum K. Warikoo Afghanistan: The Russian Connection Sreemati Ganguly Afghanistan after 2014 and India’s Options Indranil Banerji Iran’s Afghanistan Policy: Post-Taliban Evaluation Mirwais K. Balkhi HIMALAYAN AND CENTRAL ASIAN STUDIES Editor : K. WARIKOO Assistant Editor : SHARAD K. SONI Sub Editor : MAHESH R. DEBATA © Himalayan Research and Cultural Foundation, New Delhi. * All rights reserved. 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EDITORIAL ADVISORY BOARD Lt. Gen. (Rtd.) Hridaya Kaul Prof. Harish Kapur New Delhi (India) Professor Emeritus Graduate Institute of International Studies Geneva (Switzerland) Prof. Vitaly Naumkin Prof. Devendra Kaushik Director Gurgaon, Haryana (India) Institute of Oriental Studies Moscow (Russia) Dr. Lokesh Chandra Prof. Priyankar Upadhyaya Director Director International Academy of Malaviya Centre for Peace Indian Culture Research New Delhi (India) Banaras Hindu University Varanasi (India) Prof. Muzaffar Olimov Dr. Sanjyot Mehendale Tajik Institute of Innovation Executive Director and Communication Caucasus and Central Asia Program Director University of California Berkeley, USA SHARQ Research Centre Dushanbe, Tajikistan Prof. R. S. Yadav Prof. Ganga Nath Jha Chairman Centre for South, Central & Department of Political Science Southeast Asian Studies Kurukshetra University School of International Studies Jawaharlal Nehru University Kurukshetra New Delhi (India) Haryana (India) CONTRIBUTORS Dr. Shirin Akiner who taught at the School of Oriental and African Studies, University of London, is an Associate Fellow of the Royal Institute of International Affairs, London and author of several books on Central Asia. Apratim Mukarji, a former Diplomatic Correspondent of Hindustan Times and a Senior Fellow of the Indian Council of Social Science Research, New Delhi, is the author of Afghanistan : From Terror to Freedom (Sterling Publishers, New Delhi, 2003). Karin Esposito is an independent consultant on democratic governance and rule of law. She received a Juris Doctor from Boston University School of Law in 2007. Michael Fredholm is associated with Stockholm International Programme of Central Asian Studies, Stockholm University, Sweden. Ramatanu Maitra, is South Asian Analyst at EIR News Service, Washington. Dr. Uma Shankar is Associate Professor, Department of Political Science, Zakir Hussain College, University of Delhi. Dr. K. Warikoo is Professor of Central Asian Studies, School of International Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi Dr. Sreemati Ganguli is Fellow, Maulana Abul Kalam Azad Institute of Asian Studies, Kolkata. Indranil Banerjie is an Indian security and political risk analyst Mirwais K. Balkhi of Mazar-e-Sherif, Northern Afghanistan is currently a research scholar at the School of International Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi Dr. Neeru Sharma is Head, Political Science Department, B.D. Arya Girls College, Jalandhar. HIMALAYAN AND CENTRAL ASIAN STUDIES Vol. 15 Nos. 1-2 January-June 2011 CONTENTS Editorís Page 1-3 Regional Initiatives to Promote Stability and Development in Afghanistan Shirin Akiner 4-28 The Rebuilding of Afghanistan: Is the World Growing Disenchanted? Apratim Mukarji 29-41 Rule of Law and Governance Development in Afghanistan Karin Esposito 42-53 The Need for New Policies in Afghanistan: A European’s Perspective Michael Fredholm 54-75 The Coming Summer in Afghanistan: What to Expect Ramtanu Maitra 76-88 Obama’s Af-Pak Strategy and Implications for South Asia Uma Shankar 89-107 The Afghanistan Conundrum: Implications for India K. Warikoo 108-119 Afghanistan: The Russian Connection Sreemati Ganguly 120-130 Afghanistan after 2014 and India’s Options Indranil Banerji 131-139 Iran’s Afghanistan Policy: Post-Taliban Evaluation Mirwais K. Balkhi 140-151 Landmines in Afghanistan and Environmental Degradation Neeru Sharma 152-165 Editor’s Page Located at the crossroads of Central, South and West Asia and sharing its borders with Central Asian Republics of Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan on the north, Chinese province of Xinjiang in the east, Iran on the west and south west, and Pakistan and Pak-occupied Kashmir on the south and south east, Afghanistan occupies a unique geo-strategic placement in the region. In the post-Cold War period, which witnessed the demise of USSR, establishment of an Islamic state and the rise of Taliban, Afghanistan remained at the centre stage of regional and international politics. The takeover of Afghanistan and imposition of an extremist and totalitarian social order by the Taliban in 1996 posed a serious challenge to peace and security in South Asia, Central Asia, China, Russia and also in the west. And after 9/11, the international community led by USA launched the Global War on Terror, in which the Taliban were severely mauled and much of their military equipment, bases, training camps etc. destroyed. New hope dawned in Afghanistan for building accountable national institutions and infrastructure that were destroyed during the decades of war and fighting. Even though war against terror in Afghanistan was launched over ten years ago, many basic freedoms – from insecurity, fear and poverty are yet to be achieved. The battle between the forces of democratisation and those of destabilisation in post-Taliban Afghanistan is still continuing. Kidnappings, ambushes, killings, rocket attacks and bomb explosions have been occurring in Afghanistan almost daily. In the year 2009, 2,412 civilian casualties were recorded which represented an increase of 14 per cent over the year 2008. In the following year in 2010, the number of civilians killed surged to 2,777, with more than half occurring in south Afghanistan, where more than 100 Afghan civilians including teachers, nurses, doctors, tribal leaders, community elders, government officials, children, civilians working for international organisations were killed. And during the first six months of the year 2011, 1,462 civilians have been killed. Ten years after 9/11, the situation in Afghanistan remains unstable due to increasing insecurity, waning influence of the Karzai government and rise in deadly attacks by the Taliban. The Taliban movement has not only regrouped and strengthened but has been operating both from Afghanistan and Pakistan. The original Taliban led by Mullah Omar Himalayan and Central Asian Studies Vol. 15 No. 1-2, Jan.-June 2011 1 EDITOR’S PAGE now known as Quetta Shura are dominant in the south and east of Afghanistan. Haqqani network run by Sirajuddin Haqqani from Waziristan in Pakistan operates in Khost, Paktika, Paktia and Jalalabad provinces of Afghanistan. Hizb-e-Islami of Gulbadin Hikmatyar has strongholds in Mohmand and Bayour tribal districts. Pakistan Taliban – the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) is active in the NWFP and FATA areas of Pakistan. Killing of Osama bin Laden has not deterred the Taliban in their insurgent attacks. It is largely because Pakistan continues with its policy of preserving and using its strategic assets in the form of Taliban and other radical groups, who are seen to be its allies in any new government that takes shape in Afghanistan after the US and ISAF troops withdraw. The US announcement of withdrawal from Afghanistan has only boosted the Taliban which operate from its sanctuaries in Pakistan. The Taliban seek to return to power either through force or through a negotiated process in the name of reconciliation with the active Pak support. Due to its obsession with a pro-Pak regime in Kabul, Pakistan continues its links and manipulation of the Taliban and allied groups, whether in the field or in the negotiation process between Kabul, US and