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Risk Dynamics—An Analysis for the Risk of Change

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Risk Dynamics—An Analysis for the Risk of Change RISK DYNAMICS—AN ANALYSIS FOR THE RISK OF CHANGE By Tai-Lin Huang A dissertation submitted in partial satisfaction of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Engineering – Civil and Environmental Engineering in the Graduate Division of the University of California, Berkeley Committee in charge: Professor Robert G. Bea, Co-chair Professor William E. Kastenberg, Co-chair Professor Karlene H. Roberts Professor Slawomir W. Hermanowicz Fall 2010 ABSTRACT Risk Dynamics—An Analysis for the Risk of Change by Tai-Lin Huang Doctor of Philosophy in Civil and Environmental Engineering University of California, Berkeley Professor, Robert G. Bea, Co-chair Professor, William E. Kastenberg, Co-chair The concept of risk has evolved over the centuries of human history. People care about risk because much of our property and human lives are constantly at stake in the face of unforeseeable future. Unlike the fixed, known past, the future is always uncertain to us. In fact, such uncertainty is where risk arises. Thus, people assess risk by identifying sources of uncertainty and manage risk by trying to reduce those uncertainties. Indeed, existing risk analysis may be reduced to an endless anticipation of hazardous events, followed by a quantification of how likely those events are to happen and what their consequences are. Those approaches were originally developed for relatively well structured mechanical problems. However, our society inexorably marches towards greater complexity. On top of such natural progression, the advance of information and communication technology has made the rate of society’s development faster than ever. Everything in society changes over time and the complexity of change brings us the uncertain future that perplexes our decision-making processes. Our current conceptual framework for risk analysis is now facing serious challenges due to the rapid pace of change in today’s societies. How can we analyze risk when systems are constantly changing? To answer this question, this research will reexamine the concept of risk and investigate the uncertainty and complexity of change, to understand the very nature of risk in the ever-changing systems. In Newton’s laws of motion and the ways of traditional Chinese medicine, we have found a new perspective of risk and a new way to analyze it. - 1 - For my parents, teachers and friends - 2 - CONTENTS Contents .............................................................................................................................. i List of Figures................................................................................................................... vi List of Tables................................................................................................................... viii Abbreviations ...................................................................................................................ix PROLOGUE— RESEARCH GOALS AND OUTLINE............................................... 1 RISK DYNAMICS <PART ONE>: BEYOND THE RISK OF CHANCE.................. 7 Chapter 1. Research Background.................................................................................... 7 1-1. Behind the Emergence of Risk Concept.................................................................. 8 1-1-1. Measures Taken for Risk before 13th Century.................................................. 8 1-1-2. Expanding Sources of Knowledge between the 13th and 17th Century........... 9 1-1-3. Early Development of Risk in the 17th Century..............................................11 1-1-4. Development of the Mathematics of Chance in the 18th Century.................. 13 1-1-5. Science and Development of Statistics in the 19th Century ........................... 14 1-1-6. Modern Risk Thinking in the Deterministic Worldview 1900-1960 AD......... 19 1-2. Conventional Approaches to Risk Analysis........................................................... 20 1-2-1. The Development of Risk Analysis since the 1960s........................................ 20 1-2-2. The Risk of Chance—Qualitative Notion ....................................................... 22 1-2-3. The Risk of Chance—Quantitative Definition................................................ 24 1-2-4. Conventional Risk Analysis Framework ........................................................ 24 1-2-5. The Focus of Conventional Approaches......................................................... 26 - i - 1-2-6. The Benefits of the Risk of Chance................................................................. 27 1-3. Shifting Paradigms of Systems.............................................................................. 28 1-3-1. Society Evolves, Problems Emerge, Then Worldview Changes...................... 28 1-3-2. Kuhn’s Concept of Paradigm Shift................................................................. 30 1-3-3. Shifting Understandings of Systems ............................................................... 30 1-3-4. Systems Thinking ............................................................................................ 35 1-3-5. From a Complicated View to a Complex View of Systems ............................. 39 1-3-6. Systems as a Collection of Dynamic Functional Processes ........................... 42 Chapter 2. Criticisms of Conventional Risk Analysis.................................................. 44 2-1. Risk Assessment .................................................................................................... 44 2-1-1. Anticipating All Events Is Not Possible.......................................................... 44 2-1-2. Risk Is Not Time-Independent......................................................................... 47 2-1-3. Searching for Causes Never Ends .................................................................. 48 2-2. Risk Management.................................................................................................. 49 2-2-1. Risk Is Not Properly Communicated .............................................................. 49 2-2-2. Motivation for Making Improvements Is Not Included .................................. 53 2-2-3. Solving the Wrong Problem Creates Backfires............................................... 56 Chapter 3. Philosophy and Theoretical Foundations .................................................. 59 3-1. Eastern and Western Paradigms of the Universe................................................... 60 3-1-1. Complexity Science—the Western Paradigm ................................................. 60 3-1-2. I Ching (The Book of Changes)—the Eastern Paradigm............................... 61 3-2. Eastern and Western Approaches to Healing......................................................... 65 3-2-1. Medicine as a Form of Risk Analysis ............................................................. 65 3-2-2. The Success and Limitation of Modern Medicine .......................................... 67 3-2-3. East and West: Similarities and Differences .................................................. 70 3-3. Traditional Chinese Medicine (TCM) ................................................................... 74 3-3-1. The Philosophy of Holism .............................................................................. 75 3-3-2. The Essence of Health and Disease ............................................................... 77 3-3-3. Pattern Differentiation and Treatment Determination................................... 81 Chapter 4. The Need for a New Approach to Risk Analysis ....................................... 89 4-1. In Search of the Missing Uncertainty.................................................................... 91 4-1-1. Risk Arises from Uncertainty.......................................................................... 91 - ii - 4-1-2. Origins of Uncertainty ................................................................................... 92 4-1-3. Current Research Efforts on Risk Analysis .................................................... 96 4-2. Uncertainty and Complexity of Change .............................................................. 100 4-2-1. Nature of Changes........................................................................................ 100 4-3. Complexity and Accuracy ................................................................................... 102 4-4. Systems, Accidents, and the Risk of Change....................................................... 105 4-4-1. Evolutionary View of Systems....................................................................... 106 4-4-2. Accidents as a Developing Process of Functional Degradation.................. 109 4-4-3. Towards the Risk of Change ..........................................................................111 RISK DYNAMICS <PART TWO>: RISK AS A POTENTIAL OF CHANGE .......113 Chapter 5. The Risk of Change—Qualitative Notion.................................................115 5-1. The Momentum of Change...................................................................................117 5-1-1. Defining the System State Change and the Speed of Change........................117 5-1-2. Risk as the Momentum of Change.................................................................118 5-2. The Force behind Change.....................................................................................119 5-2-1. The Concept of Force ..................................................................................
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