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Chainlinks 2013 National Retail Forecast Final.Indd ChainLinks Retail Advisors U.S. National Retail Report 2013 Forecast Brought to you by: Garrick H. Brown Matt Kircher ChainLinks Research Director ChainLinks President 916.329.1558 650.931.2220 [email protected] [email protected] Chainlinks Retail Advisors U.S. National Retail Report Forecast 2013 Retail Macro Trends 2013 Assuming fiscal cliff scenario dealt with, continued slow growth mode with weaker first half of 2013, but economy accelerating heading into 2014. Following the resolution of the fiscal cliff, the big economic story of 2013 will be the return of the U.S. housing market. The 2012 holiday shopping season will turn in strong numbers and be generally deemed a success; despite this, retailer growth plans will not significantly increase heading into 2013. Meanwhile, the trend of sharp holiday discounts will mean slimmer profit margins for retailers. The impact of e-commerce on bricks-and-mortar retailers will continue to expand. This long-term trend will gradually redefine shopping center tenant mixes (look for more dining and entertainment uses) and retail development. Expanding retail categories in 2013; grocery (new smaller Retailer expansion in 2013 still about “the sure thing;” urban concepts and niche players ranging from discount to luxury over suburban, Class A and B over Class C and locations with and ethnic to organic), restaurants (fast food and fast casual greater population densities and higher income demographics leading the way, but growth across spectrum), fitness/health/ still winning out most of the time. spa concepts, drug stores, dollar stores, thrift stores, automotive service, discounters, off-price apparel, pet supplies, sporting goods, hobby stores/arts & crafts, wireless stores (limited growth “The market is dealing with two challenges currently; driven mostly by a few new concepts)and some banking/check the continued soft economy and the increasing impact cashing/financial services growth. of e-commerce. The return of the housing market will Restaurants will account for about 40% of all the new tenancy in alleviate the first, with visible results by 2014. The latter, the marketplace in 2013 (unit counts, not square footage). however, will only escalate.” Contracting retail categories in 2013; grocery (traditional larger format concepts—especially unionized smaller or regional Retailer expansion continued to be driven by two trends; chains), video stores, video game stores, bookstores, do-it- bifurcation driven by weakness of middle class consumer (luxury yourself home stores (though these will rally by 2014), stationary/ retail and discounters still on a roll, but mid-price point concepts gift shops, office supplies (shifting more to e-commerce), largely missing in action across the retail spectrum) and the long- shipping/postal stores, some casual dining concepts (the old and term impact of e-commerce (food related from grocery to dining stale lose out to new and fresh). still hot, as are national credit service retailers—automotive, Housing related retailers ranging from home goods to furniture to health clubs, etc.), but hard goods retailer growth still limited to do-it-yourself home improvement stores will rally by 2014 thanks just the extremes of the price point spectrum. to the return of the housing market. Retail development in 2013 will still dominated by urban redevelopment projects, outlet malls and the occasional long- planned regional mall going forward. There will only be limited suburban development throughout 2013, though this will be slowly changing as now home starts rise over the course of the year. Malls will continue to see slow inline user growth in 2013, but this will likely be offset by major anchor closures from just a few of the weaker department store operators is a threat. Look for current vacancy of 5.8% to increase to around 6.0% by end of year. Current specialty center (includes lifestyle centers) vacancy of 8.2% should fall to the high 7% range. 2 Chainlinks Retail Advisors U.S. National Retail Report Forecast 2013 Existing power center vacancy of 6.2% should decrease for third year in row, but pace of gains will slow. Lack of new construction will bode well for existing landlords; look for vacancy to hit the 6.0% mark or possibly less by the end of 2013. General shopping center vacancy (this statistic includes neighborhood, community and strip centers) will see the greatest improvement with existing vacancy of 10.8% falling into the low 10% range by the end of the year thanks to strong growth by food and service related retailers, though strip centers will remain the Achilles heel. “Home values have already stabilized and are beginning to show appreciation in most U.S. markets. The return of “the wealth effect” is the single most important trend to watch for retail—though it likely will not begin to impact consumer behavior until late 2014.” Class C centers remain problematic everywhere; in the strongest Shopping center health to remain bifurcated; in the strongest and performing U.S. markets they are still producing a mix of trends— in mid-performing U.S. markets Class A properties will continue ranging from stabilizing to increasing vacancy rates. Rents here to dominate; posting the lowest vacancy levels and experiencing have yet to stabilize. Class C centers in the nation’s average the greatest tenant interest. Look for rents in most markets to producing and weakest markets are in worst shape. These climb between 5% and 10% and for fevered investor demand to properties will continue to weigh down overall averages and here keep cap rates in the 6% range or less. Class A properties in is where most of the distressed investment sales will occur with the nation’s weakest performing markets will still see rental rate cap rates of 8% or more. growth of up to 5% and strong investor demand keeping cap By 2014, resurgent housing market boosts GDP accelerates rates in the 7% range or less. recovery and speeds job growth. Return of housing construction over final half of 2013 means more rooftops for retailers to follow and the return of limited suburban shopping center development, to be largely focused on neighborhood and community centers. Urban redevelopment projects still strong in 2014, but balance will slowly shift heading towards 2015. “Mom-and-pops, who have largely been missing in action since 2008, will increasingly return to the retail marketplace with new small business concepts.” Class B centers in the strongest U.S. markets will continue to post The return of housing appreciation is the most important long- declining vacancy rates and positive net absorption; with average term trend developing currently. Though we do not anticipate rental rate growth in the 5% range. Investor demand is increasing it to begin to result in visible increases in consumer spending for less than perfect retail properties and this will mean that these prior to 2014, this is the trend that holds the greatest promise centers will likely be trading with cap rates in the 7% range. Class of snapping consumers out of “the new frugality” that has been B product in the nation’s mid-performing markets will experience in place since the downturn began over four years ago. While declining or stabilizing vacancy trends in 2013 with flat or slightly the marketplace will remain extremely value-conscious thanks to increasing rents. Properties that fit this description, with no other both the habits learned during the recession and the increasing glaring occupancy issues, will generally trade with cap rates of encroachment of e-commerce, this is the best news that we can 8% or less. Class B properties in the weakest performing markets report to mid-price point retailers who have been squeezed by will mostly still be in stabilization mode this year. the downsizing of the middle class consumer. 3 Chainlinks Retail Advisors U.S. National Retail Report Forecast 2013 2013: Robust Recovery by Year End, or Derailed Assuming that nothing is done about the fiscal cliff, some Economy in January? economists are predicting negative GDP by the second quarter while others see things playing out quickly enough to land us in On the surface, it appears negative territory within the first three months of 2013. Of course, that the economy here is where the good news is. The fiscal cliff is avoidable. heading into 2013 is A compromise to reinstate some or all of the Bush tax cuts alone dealing with the same would likely be enough to keep the economy from veering issues that it was facing off the rails. as 2012 approached. Unemployment remains elevated and job growth has been weak for most “While we anticipate that Republicans and Democrats of the past year. Global will eventually come to some sort of compromise on economic growth continues to be challenged, with much of the issue of the fiscal cliff, the longer that this process Europe in recession and Asia also experiencing a slowdown. is delayed the more this political brinksmanship will Meanwhile, the United States continues to grapple with cost the economy… in real terms.” inflated sovereign debt and continued policy uncertainty. This uncertainty began in earnest with 2011’s debt ceiling debate, extended through November’s presidential elections and now Of course, the bad news is that the entire fiscal cliff scenario exists in the form of the looming fiscal cliff issue. Of course, the was created because Democrats and Republicans have been debt ceiling debate is what led to the current fiscal cliff issue. unable/unwilling to work together to find solutions in a Congress Lawmakers unable to reach a compromise in the summer of that has been starkly partisan and unable to compromise for a 2011 essentially agreed to kick the can down the road in a way couple of years now.
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