ChainLinks Retail Advisors U.S. National Retail Report 2013 Forecast Brought to you by: Garrick H. Brown Matt Kircher ChainLinks Research Director ChainLinks President 916.329.1558 650.931.2220
[email protected] [email protected] Chainlinks Retail Advisors U.S. National Retail Report Forecast 2013 Retail Macro Trends 2013 Assuming fiscal cliff scenario dealt with, continued slow growth mode with weaker first half of 2013, but economy accelerating heading into 2014. Following the resolution of the fiscal cliff, the big economic story of 2013 will be the return of the U.S. housing market. The 2012 holiday shopping season will turn in strong numbers and be generally deemed a success; despite this, retailer growth plans will not significantly increase heading into 2013. Meanwhile, the trend of sharp holiday discounts will mean slimmer profit margins for retailers. The impact of e-commerce on bricks-and-mortar retailers will continue to expand. This long-term trend will gradually redefine shopping center tenant mixes (look for more dining and entertainment uses) and retail development. Expanding retail categories in 2013; grocery (new smaller Retailer expansion in 2013 still about “the sure thing;” urban concepts and niche players ranging from discount to luxury over suburban, Class A and B over Class C and locations with and ethnic to organic), restaurants (fast food and fast casual greater population densities and higher income demographics leading the way, but growth across spectrum), fitness/health/ still winning out most of the time. spa concepts, drug stores, dollar stores, thrift stores, automotive service, discounters, off-price apparel, pet supplies, sporting goods, hobby stores/arts & crafts, wireless stores (limited growth “The market is dealing with two challenges currently; driven mostly by a few new concepts)and some banking/check the continued soft economy and the increasing impact cashing/financial services growth.