UNESCO CCT Initiative: Reduction of Natural Disasters in Asia, Latin America, and the Caribbean
A Final Report on
The UNESCO Cross-Cutting Theme Initiative: Reduction of Natural Disasters in Asia, Latin America, and the Caribbean
A UNESCO International Initiative to Promote Human Security and Sustainable Development by Reducing the Impact of Natural Disasters
March 2004
Final Report UNESCO CCT Initiative: Reduction of Natural Disasters in Asia, Latin America, and the Caribbean
“The toll from natural disasters is particularly severe and tragic in poor countries. In dealing with the hazards, we need to act in a responsible manner. We need to place far greater emphasis on prevention across the whole continuum of hazards faced by humanity - ranging from natural to man-made disasters and including threats to civil and international peace.” Mr. Koichiro Matsuura, Director-General of UNESCO
Mr. Koichiro Matsuura, Director-General of UNESCO at the opening ceremony of the initiative’s mid-term meeting in Paris, France
“It is our right to have safe schools! We do not build our school buildings. However, if they are very weak, the earthquake will destroy them and kill us. Why should we, the children, die from weakness that others create? It is not our fault but the fault of those who build those structures. So, we request our parents and teachers to build safe houses and school buildings for us!” Sony Maharjan, Kathmandu student representative
Sony Maharjan, Kathmandu student representative, at the initiative’s final symposium in Tijuana, Mexico
Final Report UNESCO CCT Initiative: Reduction of Natural Disasters in Asia, Latin America, and the Caribbean
Preface
Cities are growing rapidly, and so is their risk to natural disasters. According to the US Office for Foreign Disaster Attention, the population of the world’s 50 largest earthquake-threatened cities in 1950 was of 150 million people. In 2000, that population was almost 500 million, that is, more than three times the number in 1950. However, the number of people at risk has not only augmented, but the distribution of that population has changed as well. While in 1950, one in every two people living in earthquake threatened cities were in developing countries, in 2000 nine of every ten lived in developing countries. Currently, nine of every ten people killed by earthquakes die in developing countries. When all types of natural hazards are considered, it is estimated than more than 95% of people killed by natural disasters die in developing countries. Evidence shows that urban risk is increasing rapidly, especially in developing countries.
Rapid, poorly planned urban growth increases risk to natural disasters. UN-Habitat studies indicate that almost 180,000 people are added to the urban population each day. Informal construction and settlements, lack of enforcement of appropriate codes and regulations for both structures and infrastructure, uncontrolled use of soils and unplanned location of social and economic activities contribute to the steep increase of the urban physical and social vulnerabilities to natural hazards, especially in developing countries. Currently, over 90% of population growth in developing countries is in cities and, according to World Bank estimates, one third of people in developing countries living in cities live in slum/squatter settlements. Clearly, risk is increasing rapidly, especially in developing countries, and that risk increase is mainly the result of the rapid and unplanned growth of urban areas.
There is a close linkage between development and disasters. Poverty results in social and physical vulnerability to disasters, which is made evident by the fact that in any given natural disaster the most affected are always the poorest communities. In the same way, disasters generate and perpetuate poverty by causing huge financial losses and destroying infrastructure. In Bangladesh, just one flood destroyed 15,000 km of roads, 14,000 schools, and caused US$ 500 million in damage to rice crops. There is, therefore, a vicious circle of poverty causing increasing vulnerability to natural disasters and disasters causing increasing poverty.
Poverty
Losses Vulnerability
Disaster
The close linkage between poverty and disasters generate a vicious circle
In consequence, any initiative that reduces poverty will reduce the effect of disasters and, similarly, any action that mitigates the impact of disasters will help to reduce poverty and promote development. From this perspective, it is only logical for risk reduction to be an integral part of public policy, urban planning, and development processes. That is what the UNESCO Cross-Cutting Theme Initiative was about. The goal of this initiative was to promote and protect development and reduce poverty by reducing the losses caused by natural disasters through the incorporation of risk management in urban planning and development processes.
Final Report UNESCO CCT Initiative: Reduction of Natural Disasters in Asia, Latin America, and the Caribbean
One of the main end products of this project was a set of recommendations to the local governments on normative actions that should be undertaken in terms of urban planning and citizen empowerment in order to enhance disaster reduction and, in this way, protect development.
To achieve its goal, the initiative worked in close collaboration with local authorities, experts, and institutions of selected cities in Asia and Latin America to a) evaluate the cities’ existing development plans and determine their potential impact on the level of urban earthquake risk, b) utilize the cities’ growth tendencies (demographic, economic) to estimate future earthquake risk if urban growth continues with the current characteristics (without risk management considerations), and c) identify feasible, effective mitigation options for each participating city and perform cost-benefit analyzes to determine the most efficient risk reduction activities for each particular city. The cities selected for the project were Antofagasta (Chile), Dehradun (India), Kathmandu (Nepal), and Tijuana (Mexico).
Besides producing urban planning mitigation options tailored to the particular needs and implementation capacity of each city, which are being incorporated into the cities’ development plans, the project increased local capacity by installing risk assessment tools in the computer systems of the local governments and training city official and local experts on the use and application of those tools to urban planning. Also, the project increased public awareness through the active participation of city institutions and representatives of the various sectors of the community throughout the project and a collaborative interaction with the local mass media.
Understanding that effective reduction of urban risk requires long-term efforts that produce permanent solutions and that sustainable implementation of long-term programs will only be possible when there is a well-established culture of preparedness and planning, this initiative implemented demonstration projects with schools in the participating cities. The aim of these demonstration projects was two-fold. In the short-term, the objective was to promote the introduction of risk reduction and management in the educational system of the participating cities, and, in this way, contribute to the long-term objective of creating a culture of prevention. Both objectives are set with the necessary consequential goal of ensuring the sustainability of long-term risk reduction programs.
As Coordinator of this initiative, I would like to highlight the hard work and enthusiasm of the working groups in the participating cities, where local government officials, scientists, and city institutions collaborated very closely to make the most of this effort. All the material presented in this report is the product of their dedication and commitment to their cities’ safety and development. My special thanks go to Ms. Cynthia Cardona, who assisted me in the implementation of this project and whose bright and tireless work made possible the successful implementation, in a relatively short time, of this initiative in four cities of two continents and using two languages. Finally, I would like to thank Ms. Elina Palm, Head of the UN- International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (ISDR) Office for Latin America and the Caribbean for coming to the rescue when the implementation of the project’s final symposium was lacking the necessary funds.
The impact of the project has been felt immediately. The representatives of the Kathmandu City Government to the project’s mid-term meeting in Paris expressed: “The beauty of this project is that we, the staff of the city government, performed the assessment of Kathmandu’s risk and we now understand what is making our city vulnerable to earthquakes. Thus, we now can act accordingly.” It is my sincere hope that many other local governments and communities will use this methodology to understand their cities’ risk and take actions to protect the lives of their citizens and the development of their societies.
Carlos Villacis Program Coordinator UNESCO/ISDR Consultant
Final Report UNESCO CCT Initiative: Reduction of Natural Disasters in Asia, Latin America, and the Caribbean
Project Participants
Coordinators
Carlos A. Villacis, Program Coordinator Cynthia N. Cardona, Assistant Program Coordinator
Antofagasta Working Group Tijuana Working Group
Municipality of Antofagasta Municipality of Tijuana Caupolicán Aguirre Luis Duarte M. Joel Becerra F. Delia Castellanos A. Ulises Cabrera Lydía Montañés Claudio Castillo R. Antonio Rosquillas N. Sergio Díaz Jorge Infanta Center for Scientific Research and Higher Education Ernesto López B. of Ensenada (CICESE) Javier Mandiola C. Ana María Frías L. Pedro Miric Luis Mendoza G. Rodolfo Rojas Ernesto Rocha G. Roberto Rivera R. Rogelio Reyes S.
Catholic University of the North Student Representatives Marcelo Avalos T. José Paredes María Soledad Bembow Angel Castillo Alexandra Joo V. Juan Music T. Mario Pereira A. Gloria Paredes L. Cinthia Rojas C.
Student Representatives David Soto Jonathan Aguirre
Kathmandu Working Group
Municipality of Kathmandu National Society for Earthquake Technology (NSET) Ram Saran Humagain Bishnu H Pandey Kumari Rai Amod Dixit Rajesh Manandhar Tribhuwan Man Singh Pradhan Student Representatives Sorojani Joshi Sony Maharjan Manish Pradhan Susan Munikar Surendra Prakash Rajkarnikar
Final Report UNESCO CCT Initiative: Reduction of Natural Disasters in Asia, Latin America, and the Caribbean
Contents
Preface ……………………………………………………………………...
Project Participants ………………………………………………………...
Contents ……………………………………………………………………
Part I Reducing earthquake risk through proper urban planning
Outline of the Initiative …………………………………………………….
Individual City Reports …………………………………………………….
Antofagasta, Chile, City Report ……………...………………………….....
Kathmandu, Nepal, City Report …………….……………………………...
Tijuana, Mexico, City Report ………………………………………….…..
Dehradun, India, City Report …………….………………………………...
Part II The Schools Project-Creating a culture of prevention
Outline of the Educational Component-The Schools Project ……………...
Individual City Reports …………………………………………………….
Antofagasta, Chile, City Report ……………...………………………….....
Kathmandu, Nepal, City Report …………….……………………………...
Tijuana, Mexico, City Report ………………………………………….…..
Final Report UNESCO CCT Initiative: Reduction of Natural Disasters in Asia, Latin America, and the Caribbean
Part I
Reducing earthquake risk through proper urban planning
UNESCO Cross-Cutting Theme Initiative: Reduction of Natural Disasters in Asia, Latin America, and the Caribbean
Final Report UNESCO CCT Initiative: Reduction of Natural Disasters in Asia, Latin America, and the Caribbean
Outline of the Cross-cutting Theme Initiative: Reduction of Natural Disaster in Asia, Latin America, and the Caribbean
INTRODUCTION
The escalation of severe disasters triggered by natural hazards is increasingly threatening human security and sustainable development. Thousands of lives are lost each year, of which more than 90% are in developing countries. Tremendous damage is destroying the living conditions of millions of people, especially the poorest and most vulnerable. Population growth and rapid and unplanned urbanization are exposing more people to hazards in cities, threatening the stability of their lives. Disasters can turn the development clock backwards, and often times the lack of sound planning is the main cause of increasing disaster risk.
Considering this, the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO), in the framework of the United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (ISDR), implemented an international, multi-disciplinary project entitled The Cross-cutting Theme Initiative: Reduction of Natural Disasters in Asia, Latin America, and the Caribbean.
The goal of the Initiative was to preserve sustainable development and reduce poverty through the reduction of the impact of natural disasters by incorporating risk management as an integral part of public policy as well as city development plans and processes. In its initial phase, the project focused on the following participant cities: Antofagasta, Chile; Dehradun, India; Kathmandu, Nepal; and Tijuana, Mexico.
Among the end products of this project were recommendations to the local governments on normative actions that should be undertaken in terms of urban planning and citizen empowerment in order to enhance disaster reduction. Urban planning mitigation options tailored to the particular needs and implementation capacity of each city were identified and are now being incorporated into the cities’ development plans,
The long-term vision of this initiative is for cities worldwide to adopt an effective and recognized mechanism to a) improve governance through better use and application of existing knowledge, and b) contribute to sustainable development by significantly reducing the losses due to natural disasters.
MAIN ACTIVITIES OF THE INITIATIVE
The project built on previous achievements made with respect to risk management in cities. In particular, it used the results of the Risk Assessment Tools for Diagnosis of Urban Areas against Seismic Disasters (RADIUS) project carried out from 1997 to 2000 under the aegis of the United Nations’ International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction (IDNDR). The project utilized the practical tools of urban risk management that were developed during the RADIUS project. These tools have been distributed by the United Nations among local authorities of earthquake-threatened cities worldwide.
The cities selected for this project belong to the RADIUS network of cities and are the following ones:
Latin America City Country Population Local counterparts Tijuana Mexico 1,250.000 Municipality of Tijuana (year 2000) Research Center for Higher Education of Ensenada (CICESE) Antofagasta Chile 298,738 Municipality of Antofagasta (year 2002) Universidad Católica del Norte
Final Report UNESCO CCT Initiative: Reduction of Natural Disasters in Asia, Latin America, and the Caribbean
Asia City Country Population Local counterparts Kathmandu Nepal 671,846 Municipality of Kathmandu (year 2001) National Society of Earthquake Technology (NSET) Dehradun India 527859 Municipality of Dehradun (year 2001) Disaster Management and Mitigation Center, Dehradun
The project’s program of activities is presented in Fig. 1. The three main phases of the project, namely preparation, risk evaluation, and incorporation of risk management in urban planning, are indicated in the figure. A Mid-term meeting and an international final symposium were held in which the cities presented their work to the international community to get feedback and guidance.
In each of the participating cities, the project:
• Trained local leaders and experts in the use and application of earthquake damage assessment tools. • Prepared simplified earthquake scenarios for different conditions (i.e. several plausible earthquakes, different building occupancy instances -- e.g. day and night occupancies). • Estimated future risk by preparing simplified earthquake scenarios for future conditions considering current local growth tendencies. • Tested current urban growth plans and policies to understand their implications in the level of urban risk. • Identified and tested possible risk reduction measures. Performed cost-benefit analyzes and delineated strategies to incorporate the most effective mitigation options into the cities’ development plans. • Compared the relative risk among the participating cities. • Promoted the exchange of experiences, information, and best practices among the participating cities. • Raised awareness, both at the local and international levels, of the existing risk and the availability of affordable solutions.
Activity March April May June July August September October November
Project preparation Preparation First visit to the cities Training seminars Local kick-off meetings Collection of required information Information analysis and formatting Risk Evaluation Risk assessment- Preparation of scenarios Analysis of existing and future risk Local scenario workshops Mid-term meeting in Paris Applications for urban planning Identification of risk reduction measures Public presentation of results (locally) Preparation of final reports Comparison of relative risk among cities Application to urban planning Preparation of International Symposium International Symposium in one of the cities Publication and dissemination of results Exchange of information and best practices
Fig.1 Program of activities
Final Report UNESCO CCT Initiative: Reduction of Natural Disasters in Asia, Latin America, and the Caribbean
PROJECT PREPARATION
The project started in each city with the visit by the project coordinator to:
• Meet with the local authorities to introduce and explain the project to them • Implement a kick-off meeting, with the assistance of the local and regional authorities and the participation of representatives of the various sectors of the society, to present the project to the community and ask for their active participation and support • Establish the local working groups • Train city officers in charge of the city planning on the application of risk assessment tools and methodologies to urban planning and development programs.
Figures 2 through 4 show some of these activities in the participating cities.
Fig.2 Working session with city officers in charge of Fig.3 Training session on use and application of the urban planning in Tijuana project's software in Kathmandu
Fig.4 Some of the approximately 60 participants of the seminar organized in Antofagasta to introduce the project to the community and its leaders.
Final Report UNESCO CCT Initiative: Reduction of Natural Disasters in Asia, Latin America, and the Caribbean
ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT AND FUTURE EARTHQUAKE URBAN RISK
Using the risk assessment tools and methodology provided by the project, the local working groups evaluated the current and future urban earthquake risk. The particular growth tendencies of each city were considered to prepare projections of the cities in the future and estimate the changes in earthquake risk associated with the cities’ growth. Since the project’s software was installed on the Municipality’s computers, the city officials in charge of planning the city’s growth were the ones performing all the risk estimations using information available at the Municipality. Local technical experts provided the necessary advice and support and city institutions participated in the process by providing information on the city systems and services. Figure 5 shows samples of the current and future earthquake risk estimated for Antofagasta.
2003 2007
2012 2022
Fig. 5 Estimated earthquake damage to buildings in Antofagasta (modeled above using the project's software) under current and future conditions
The results of the risk estimations and their implications in the proper planning of the cities’ growth were presented to the community in a public workshop with the participation of representatives of the various sectors of the society. Besides validating the results and informing the community on the project findings, the public presentation of the risk estimations helped to prepare the city representatives for their participation at the mid-term meeting in Paris in which the participating cities presented the progress of their work to the international community.
THE MID-TERM MEETING
In order to draw lessons from the work done up to that point by the cities and prepare for last phase of the initiative, namely the introduction of risk management into the city planning, a mid-term meeting was held on 25-26 September 2003, at UNESCO Headquarters in France that allowed city representatives to report on their progress and share their experiences.
Approximately seventy participants from all over the world attended the mid-term meeting, which was opened by Mr. Koichiro Matsuura, Director-general of UNESCO. Mr. Matsuura emphasized the need to place far greater emphasis on prevention across the whole continuum of hazards faced by humanity in spite of the
Final Report UNESCO CCT Initiative: Reduction of Natural Disasters in Asia, Latin America, and the Caribbean
natural impulse to put the emphasis on addressing immediate problems rather than anticipating potential ones. He indicated that a coherent worldwide effort is required to harness the environmental sciences for vulnerability reduction so as to make our settlements and our world safer in this new century. Finally, Mr. Matsuura emphasized that disaster and vulnerability reduction should be a central theme of UNESCO’s action.
Fig. 6 Mr. Koïchiro Matsuura, Director-General of UNESCO, presided the meeting’s opening ceremony
The mid-term meeting provided city representatives and project participants an opportunity to evaluate the project to date. More importantly, it facilitated the following: • Presentation, discussion, and evaluation of work carried out to date by each participating city • Exchange of experiences among cities • Discussion of the application of the project’s risk assessment and evaluation results to urban planning methods and public policy • Direct interaction of city representatives and UNESCO, international experts, and potential funders
Among the recommendations produced by the meeting on the key elements for ensuring sustainable, long- term risk reduction processes in the participant cities, the following can be highlighted:
• Long-term vision and political commitment, which need to be reflected in, among other things, appropriate resource allocations. Real political commitment implies also understanding and accepting the fact that the benefits of risk reduction, in most cases, can only be seen in the distant future (not necessarily during the period in office) • An integrated approach that links the different actors and main stakeholders (avoiding isolated projects) to ensure their integration in a democratic process • Use and integration of local capacities and know how, such as local expertise, indigenous materials, construction technology, etc. (the Kathmandu School safety program is a remarkable example) • Generation of local funding to avoid dependency on external sources of financing and promote local autonomy. Local funding can be generated through, for example, the involvement of the private sector and the implementation of microfinance schemes.
APPLICATION TO URBAN PLANNING
The recommendations produced in the Mid-Term meeting were used by the cities to complete the project’s last phase, that is, the incorporation of risk management measures into the cities’ development plans. Once
Final Report UNESCO CCT Initiative: Reduction of Natural Disasters in Asia, Latin America, and the Caribbean
again, city authorities, institutions, and technical experts worked together in this process under the guidance and coordination of the program coordinator.
In this phase, the earthquake risk evaluations performed during the first phase under current and future city conditions were analyzed and synthesized to identify the main implications of urban growth on the earthquake risk level. For each city, the main contributors to earthquake risk increase were identified for the short- (next 5 years), medium- (next 10-15 years) and long- (next 20-25 years) terms if nothing is done to control risk, that is, if the cities continue growing with the same regulations, development plans, code enforcement mechanisms, supervision, and growth tendencies they now have.
The working groups in each city interacted with local authorities, technical experts, and city institutions to prepare a set of identified problems and the corresponding proposed solutions for each time category under consideration (short-, medium-, and long-term). When determining the proposed solutions to the identified problems, the working groups in the cities considered, among other things, the current city capacity to address a certain problem and the capacity that would be required to solve it as well as the possible relation of the proposed solutions to national or regional programs that could facilitate, support and even fund the cities’ risk reduction efforts. Also, considering the financial, legislative, and technical limitations in the cities, a priority ranking was applied to the proposed solutions to optimize the available resources.
Finally, cost-benefit analyzes were performed for the proposed risk reduction solutions in order to identify the most effective and efficient planning measures to be incorporated in the cities’ development plans. Implementation strategies were also delineated for the recommended risk reduction measures. Examples of these analyzes are presented in Fig. 7 and 8. Figure 7 shows the effect of several risk reduction investment strategies for Tijuana. These strategies range from an aggressive risk reduction program that would invest $ 11.6 million in the next 25 years to avoid risk increase to the extreme case of doing nothing and allowing the risk to continue growing at its current rate. Figure 8 shows the positive effect of the application of building codes in Kathmandu in the short-, medium-, and long-terms.
Risk reduction strategies
1800 1600 1400 1200 a 1000 b 800 c 600 d 400 e 200
People at risk (in thousands) 0
9 4 9 4 9 4 9 4 9 9 1 2 4 4 9 004 009 0 0 029 034 0 0 198 199 1 2 2 201 2 2 2 2 203 2 2 Year
Fig. 7 Effect of several risk reduction investment options for Tijuana, which range from doing nothing (red line) to an aggressive risk reduction program that would invest $ 11.6 million in the next 25 years (green line).
Final Report UNESCO CCT Initiative: Reduction of Natural Disasters in Asia, Latin America, and the Caribbean
60
50 48 45 40 40 37 Building Damage 29 30 Injury 27 24 Death
% decrease % 20 17 10 11
0 Short Term Medium Long Term Term
Fig. 8 Short-, medium-, and long-term risk reduction effects of the application of building codes in Kathmandu, in terms of building damage and casualties,
The final recommendations produced by the project in each city, including the proposed risk reduction planning measures and their implementation strategies, were presented to the community in public workshops to validate them and obtain community support for their implementation.
Fig. 9 The Mayor of Kathmandu addresses the Fig. 10 Representatives of the various community sectors participants of a public workshop discuss risk reduction recommendations organized to present the project results proposed by the project for Tijuana
FINAL INTERNATIONAL SYMPOSIUM
In order to draw final lessons from the project, a final symposium was held on 19-22 January 2004, in Tijuana, Mexico and San José, California that allowed city representatives to report on their results, share their experiences, and discuss next steps. Specifically, the symposium facilitated the following: • Presentation, discussion, and evaluation of work carried out by each participating city • Exchange of experiences among cities
Final Report UNESCO CCT Initiative: Reduction of Natural Disasters in Asia, Latin America, and the Caribbean
• Discussion of the application and implementation of the project’s results and recommendations to urban planning and public policy in each of the cities • Direct interaction of city representatives, international experts, and potential funders • Generation of ideas for potential collaboration opportunities and preparation for a potential longer-term initiative
Approximately one hundred and ten participants from around the world attended the final symposium, which was co-organized by UNESCO and the Municipality of Tijuana with the administrative assistance of the Center for Scientific Research and Higher Education of Ensenada (CICESE). The participants included school children from the participating cities who presented the results of demonstration projects that were implemented to promote the creation of a culture of prevention. Details of the educational component of this initiative are presented somewhere else in this report.
Fig. 11 Some of the approximately 110 participants of the final symposium in Tijuana, Mexico
Fig. 12 Antonio Rosquillas, Tijuana’s Director of Civil Fig. 13 Kathmadu students Sony Maharjan and Susan Protection, and Sony Maharjan, Kathmandu student Munikar present their work at the final symposium representative, test seismic-resistant structures at the (pictured here with Elina Palm, Head of the ISDR-LAC Tech Museum of San Jose, California Office, and Project Coordinator Carlos Villacís)
Final Report UNESCO CCT Initiative: Reduction of Natural Disasters in Asia, Latin America, and the Caribbean
The meeting participants engaged in active discussions during group working sessions based on the results and findings presented by the city representatives. As a result, the Final Symposium event produced specific recommendations on ways to incorporate risk reduction considerations into the city development plans and on necessary actions to establish a culture of prevention and long-term planning, especially in developing countries.
Recommendations
The working groups produced recommendations on four vital aspects of urban risk reduction processes: 1- Vulnerability reduction of buildings, infrastructure and services 2- Political, institutional, and legal frameworks 3- Financing of these processes 4- Public awareness and education
The main recommendations and a long-term vision for each of these aspects are listed below.
1- Vulnerability reduction of buildings, infrastructure and services
Long-term vision: All the new construction (structures and infrastructure) is properly designed and built and safely located.
Recommendations: Progress towards the achievement of this vision could be made by:
• Revising and modifying the current processes for issuing construction permits by local authorities and adding adequate technical support to these processes. • Revising the basic philosophy of current building codes to incorporate local cultural aspects, indigenous materials, and traditional construction techniques. • Introducing risk management in the study programs of universities and professional associations through coordinated actions by government, universities, and professional associations. • Providing technical guidance, at affordable price, to the lower-income sectors of the community through social programs implemented by local authorities and professional associations
2- Political, institutional, and legal frameworks
Long-term vision: Risk management considerations are an integral part of every planning, development, and investment decision.
Recommendations: Progress towards the achievement of this vision could be made by:
• Compiling and synthesizing the work, results, and findings produced by isolated risk reduction initiatives implemented so far by both local and international organizations in order to properly utilize what has already been done and learn from past experiences. • Modifying the legislation in order to incorporate all the civil and political institutions in risk management processes based on the understanding that risk considerations must be included in every development and investment decision. • Strengthening local risk management organizations that coordinate the coordinated implementation of long-term risk reduction programs and monitor and report the progress (or lack of it) of these programs.
Final Report UNESCO CCT Initiative: Reduction of Natural Disasters in Asia, Latin America, and the Caribbean
• Promoting and facilitating the participation of the cities in risk management initiatives with other cities at the domestic, regional, and international levels to take advantage of other cities’ experiences, incorporate best practices at the local level, and even import applicable legislation and institutional frameworks. The creation of partnerships among cities with similar needs and problems should be encouraged. • Promoting decentralization at the national level. Cities need greater political, financial, and administrative autonomy to address their particular needs in managing urban risk.
3- Financing of these processes
Long-term vision: While the cities may need assistance during large catastrophes, they should be self- sufficient for the implementation of risk reduction processes and the response to minor disasters.
Recommendations: Progress towards the achievement of this vision could be made by:
• Identifying already allocated funds in the budgets of city institutions and agencies that have been assigned to similar or related risk management activities and coordinating their use to avoid duplication of activities and optimize the utilization of available resources. The necessary funds for risk management may already be available but are not being efficiently utilized. • Revising the current tax regulations to create incentives to encourage risk reduction activities and practices. Utilization of current tax revenues should also be revised to redirect some of them towards risk reduction activities. • Creating a certification system that recognizes industries and private enterprises that adopt risk reduction practices. Certified industries and corporations would enjoy a special status that could encourage the private sector to play an active role in managing urban risk. • Implementing new and creative programs to generate funds for risk management programs for critical facilities. National or local lottery programs, for example, could generate significant funding for the implementation of safety initiatives for public schools or hospitals. • Revising the role of international collaboration. External assistance and funding should only be welcomed when they are completely compatible with the local needs, programs, and realities. Dependency on external assistance should be avoided at all costs.
4- Public awareness and education
Long-term vision: By age 18, all citizens have risk management and proper planning concepts and practices integrated into their daily lives.
Recommendations: Progress towards the achievement of this vision could be made by:
• Integrating risk management and disaster prevention in the official educational programs. • Delineating comprehensive programs, both formal and informal, for risk reduction and disaster prevention education in collaboration with universities and professional associations. • Establishing educational programs for broad dissemination via the media. • Effectively utilizing grassroots organizations and community leaders to reach the community. Training- of-trainers programs should be implemented at every level of the society to take advantage of the existing community structure and organization. • Requiring that city political authorities take an introductory course on risk management and disaster mitigation.
Final Report UNESCO CCT Initiative: Reduction of Natural Disasters in Asia, Latin America, and the Caribbean
• Requiring that other public officials (such as public planning and finance ministers) be sensitized to the issues of prevention.
PROPOSED FOLLOW-UP PLAN
This pilot project will be used to promote and prepare the implementation of a proposed large-scale, long- term initiative that will include:
• Development and application of similar tools for other hazards, namely floods and landslides • Incorporation of more cities from around the world • Establishment of links with other international risk reduction initiatives
This proposed large-scale initiative would be implemented in two phases. The first phase would have a duration of three years and the participation of a dozen cities worldwide. The second phase would include the continuing and progressive incorporation of more cities to this initiative until achieving the initiative’s long- term vision of cities worldwide adopting an effective and recognized mechanism to a) improve governance through better use and application of existing knowledge, and b) contribute to sustainable development by significantly reducing the losses due to natural disasters.
The progressive implementation of this proposed initiative is presented schematically in Fig. 7
Large-scale project
2002-03 3 years Continues progressively
First phase Second phase
Pilot 12 cities Add more cities Project Add floods & continuously landslides
Fig.14 Progressive long-term implementation of the proposed initiative
CONTACT INFORMATION
Dr. Carlos Villacís, M.P.A., Ms. Cynthia Cardona Project Coordinator UNESCO Consultant UNESCO/ISDR Consultant Tel: (1- 408) 251-4042 Tel: (1-650) 967-3667 E-mail: [email protected] Fax: (1-253) 679-8397 E-mail: [email protected] [email protected]
Final Report UNESCO CCT Initiative: Reduction of Natural Disasters in Asia, Latin America, and the Caribbean
The UNESCO Cross-Cutting Theme Initiative: Reduction of Natural Disasters in Asia, Latin America, and the Caribbean
Individual City Reports
Prepared by the city representatives of
Antofagasta, Chile Kathmandu, Nepal Tijuana, Mexico Dehradun, India
Final Report UNESCO CCT Initiative: Reduction of Natural Disasters in Asia, Latin America, and the Caribbean
UNESCO CCT Initiative Disaster Risk Reduction in Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean Antofagasta, Chile, City Report
1. INTRODUCTION TO THE CITY
The port-city of Antofagasta is located 1,300 Km. Northbound Santiago city, capital of Chile, on the occidental edge of Atacama desert. Its extension reaches 27 kilometres of length from South to North, with an average width of 2 Km. Geographically, it is restricted on its growth to the East by De La Costa Cordillera, with slopes of 40° and to the West by the Pacific Ocean, whereas to the South its growth is difficult because of the same cordillera that abruptly falls on the shore.
Population, according to the year 2002 Census, is of 299.880 inhabitants. Main economic activity in Antofagasta Region is mining, associated to Cooper production, that explains the Regional GNP of 60%.
Antofagasta Region, with a 3.2% of the country total population, contributes with more than 8% of the National GNP, and an equivalent of 27.1% of the total national exportations (1998). Another relevant mining products are the Potassium Nitrate (first worldwide producer) and Lithium Carbonate.
Current growth of the Region, is visualized in the conformation of a mining cluster that assures the maintenance, generating a higher value-added to mining products, and at the same time, that this becomes the initial support of the productive diversification, for example in aquiculture, and in tourism increase.
Regional economic activity has been remarkably increased in the last years. The economic activity index (INACER) shows a duplication between 1992 and 1998. The same happens in key economic areas of the Region, like mining and electricity, gas and water sectors.
The Region of Antofagasta in the year 1992 produced more than 1 million tons of fine cooper, nowadays its production goes over 2 million tons, that are shipped, mostly, through Antofagasta port.
This Region achieved, in 1998, a regional participation in the country exportations of a total of 27.1% generating exportations for more than US$ 5,103,928 in the year 1997, where the main destinations were Asia and Europe.
Government strategic lineaments, that are proposed as priority, are the commercial integration with bordering countries, the generation of a greater value-added to the mining activity and the productive diversification.
The new focussing that valorized the local dimension of development, implicates to put a new dimension to regional territory not on the centre perspective, but on the articulation of relationships from its own maintenance. About this, it seems possible to affirm that the Region has initiated a vast and deep process of change at a territorial level. This new territory embraces o circumscribes a bigger area of hinterland or economic influence, that involves the Norte Grande, but also bordering country areas that gravitate on the Argentinean NW, Bolivian NW, the Gran Chaco in Brazil and in Paraguay, being fundamental the East-West tension, contrary to old North-South axis that connected us with Santiago city.
From the last is deduced the understanding of Antofagasta as a key city or nodal for the future commercial space of the Pacific, what implicates an important scale change. Meaning, beyond the city image of the actual city a new image emerges; the Port Urban Complex, which will potentially create Antofagasta-Mejillones. Now it is been developed the Project of Mejilones Port and the North Bio-oceanic Treatment. Projects that
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together are the sustain growth platform, decentralized and self-referred for the Second Region, transforming Antofagasta into a centre of services and support to the productive and development activity in the entire region.
2. PAST IMPORTANT NATURAL DISASTERS IN ANTOFAGASTA
The possibility of a big earthquake is sustained in the fact that, during the last century The North of Chile and the South of Peru, experimented earthquakes of a magnitude estimated in over 8 degrees, being the last of them in 1877.
This situation turns out much clearly after the statistic analysis of big earthquakes in the zone, which indicates a repetition period of 120 years. This, assures the hypothesis that points out that seismic cycle in this zone is in its mature stage, for what it would exist a high probability of occurrence of this type of catastrophes.
Because of this situation, which is added to a series of similar phenomena occurred previously in the Region of Antofagasta, such as the 1991 flood that affected Antofagasta and Taltal cities, the mud stream that cut all communication with Paposo on July 1999, the earthquake in Antofagasta in 1995 and the volcanic eruptions which affected the Talabre Area during 1994 and 1998, is fundamental for the public step, integrate planning and education matters for risk reduction before the possibility of a natural disaster.
The Region of Antofagasta registers, in the coast area, the following quakes of consequence:
CITY YEAR CONSEQUENCES Antofagasta 1877 Earthquake accompanied of tsunami, no human lives lost, serious material damages. It was considered to have a magnitude of 8° in Richter Scale. 1922 Earthquake accompanied of tsunami, no human lives lost, material damages. 1929 Earthquake accompanied of epicentre in Pampa Union (former Saltpetre Office located in the Region of Antofagasta) in Antofagasta city, they were 2 deaths, several injured, 60 semi-destroyed houses and innumerable collapses. It was estimated to have a magnitude of IX (Mercalli Scale). 1950 Quake with characteristics of earthquake, left four deaths and dozens of injured, it also caused collapses and cracking on old buildings or in those with a deficient maintenance. 1952 Tsunami with epicentre in the ocean, outside Chilean coast, that affected the entire costal area between Antofagasta and Talcahuano (South of Chile). In Antofagasta several ships got lost, several littoral sectors got overflowed. The swelling of the sea lasted 3 hours and waves reached a height of 3,6 metres. 1966 Earthquake with no fatal victims, only minor material waste. 1995 Earthquake, three deaths, structural damage in buildings and local port. It had a magnitude of 7,3° in Richter Scale, and a maximum intensity of VII in Mercalli Scale.
The earthquake during July 30th in 1995 in Antofagasta had a magnitude of 8.1 (Mw) and it was at 20 Km NW the city, to a depth of 36 Km, causing structural damages for more than 440 thousand million pesos to
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Chilean Government and 615 additional million pesos, just out of house damages (2 million dollars). According to what the Urbanism and Housing Ministry reported at that time. Three people lost their lives and more than 1400 got injured. One of the fatal victims perished by crushing, after the detaching of a rock.
House damages were reported in most of the Second Region, although it was said that worst wastes were concentrated in Antofagasta city, particularly in the port. For six months, only 30% of port system could maintain operating being this area the one that suffered major impact indeed, because it is a filling zone. Electronic and communicational systems were affected several hours after the earthquake, whereas the drinking water and sewage services got to normal more slowly, after proving damages in the networks.
Human losses due to natural disasters in Antofagasta (1991-2003)
Adultos Menores Aluvión (1991) 60 48 Terremoto (1995) 2 1
Terremoto 1995 Aluvión de 1991
M enores ; 1; Menores ; 33% 48; 44% Adultos; Adultos; 2; 60; 56% 67%
Ad ul tos Menores Adultos Menores
En 1999 la inversión pública para la Segunda Región, fue de 50 mil millones de pesos (100 millones de USD), lo que representa un 4% de la inversión nacional. En tanto, una evaluación económica de las pérdidas provocadas por Desastres en el 2001, indicó que en la región de Antofagasta, se produjeron pérdidas por desastres naturales que bordean los 20 millones de dólares, equivalentes al 20% del total invertido en la zona, sólo en 10 años.
El detalle entregado por la Oficina Regional de Protección Civil, sólo para de de los desastres más importantes ocurridos, indica que el aluvión de 1991 dejó 108 muertos, 6 desaparecidos, 16.317 damnificados y 2.664 viviendas dañadas, 737 de las cuales resultaron completamente destruidas. Las pérdidas económicas fueron avaluadas en torno a los 29 mil 328 millones de pesos.
En tanto, el terremoto de 1995 provocó 3 muertos y 9.452 damnificados. Posteriormente, tuvieron que ser demolidas 826 viviendas, mientras que 143 inmuebles quedaron con daños estructurales de consideración. Los perjuicios económicos bordearon los 440 millones de pesos.
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3. CITY GROWTH PROJECTIONS
In general terms, constructions are concentrated in categories of RES 1 and RES 2 (22% and 40% average respectively), what means, according to computational program definitions, that more than 60% of the constructions are designated to houses and they have important grades of lack or informality (camps, slams of self-construction or even three floor buildings which do not reach standards). On the other hand, constructions designated to commercial uses present an average of 15% and those designate to industrial and productive activities, and average of 7%.
Porcentaje Tipo Edificatorio 2003 Antofagasta - Chile OTROS RES 1 16% 22%
IND 7%
COM 15%
RES 2 40% RES 1 RES 2 COM IND OTROS
(RES1 -- - construcción Informal y precaria / RES2 -- - URM-RC construcción de baja calidad que no cumple con las reglamentaciones locales. Altura hasta 3 pisos, sin supervisón profesional)
El acelerado crecimiento de la ciudad en los últimos 10 años, se basa principalmente en la generación de nuevos trabajos como consecuencia de la industria minera. Asimismo, la base de crecimiento de la economía promedio para Antofagasta, en el período 2003 – 2022 es de un 4%, según estudios de crecimiento para el Plano Regulador de Antofagasta.
Esta previsto que al año 2022, la tendencia será a crecer por densificación, especialmente en los extremos Norte y Sur de la ciudad. Hecho que deja en evidencia la necesidad de gestionar mejor el uso territorial y
Final Report UNESCO CCT Initiative: Reduction of Natural Disasters in Asia, Latin America, and the Caribbean
establecer normas para ello. Asimismo, para una población total de 299.880 personas al 2003, la estratificación social se da de la siguiente manera:
Estratificación Socio-Económica en % - 2003 Antofagasta - Chile
6,6 14,65 18,4
37,37 22,94
Extrema pobreza clase media baja clase media clase media emergente clase alta
De lo anterior se desprende que el 52 % de la población es de bajos recursos, por lo tanto, la potencialidad de autoconstrucción de viviendas, ocupación ilegal de terrenos y de riesgo es muy alta, siendo necesario la intervención de áreas catalogadas para este estudio como de alta vulnerabilidad, en aspectos como la planificación, erradicación de viviendas y educación de las personas sobre la materia.
En 1999, la Segunda región ocupó el primer lugar en el ranking de competitividad nacional, ya que aporta más del 7% al Producto Interno Bruto (PIB) nacional, situándose en el cuarto lugar entre las 13 regiones que componen Chile. El PIB per cápita de la región, es de 2,7 veces el promedio nacional, siendo el más alto del país.
Antofagasta, al ser la ciudad más importante de la Segunda Región, también concentra el 39% de la población total. Asimismo sustenta las actividades minera, industrial y de servicios tales como portuarios, energía y financieros, y es receptora de grandes inversiones. Por este motivo, la población se ve incrementada por las ofertas de trabajo del área.
Población de Antofagasta respecto del resto de la Segunda Región, Chile 2003
39%
61%
Region Antofagasta
Se espera que la población de la ciudad se incremente a 500.019 al año 2022, como causa de las ofertas laborales. En la actualidad se estima que la población de allegados en la ciudad es de 15% respecto del total de la población.
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Se han distinguido dos tipos básicos de crecimiento, a saber, crecimiento por extensión, que se produce en áreas nuevas de la ciudad que no cuentan a la fecha con urbanización, y crecimiento por densificación, que se produce en áreas consolidadas de la ciudad.
De acuerdo a los antecedentes históricos de evolución de la relación entre construcción de casas y departamentos, obtenidas del registro de permisos de construcción municipal (Memoria del Plan Regulador Comunal), se verifica que entre los años 1988 y 1998, se presentó un comportamiento estable de distribución porcentual, que osciló en torno a un 15% a 20% de edificación en altura y 80% a 85% de edificación en extensión (vivienda de 1 o 2 pisos). Lo anterior indica con claridad, que la ciudad de Antofagasta no ha iniciado aún un proceso claro de densificación, propio de ciudades intermedias, y que dicha evolución es esperable para los próximos años.
Sobre esta base se proyectaron los siguientes escenarios por corte temporal, reconociendo un incremento del crecimiento por densificación en desmedro del crecimiento por extensión, como fenómeno típico de ciudades intermedias en crecimiento:
Año % crecimiento por % crecimiento por densificación extensión 2003 20 80 2007 25 75 2012 30 70 2017 35 65 2022 40 60
Para el uso residencial, en Antofagasta se distribuyen las construcciones en un total de 80% para viviendas y un 20% de departamentos4, por tanto, asumimos estos valores para la situación base en extensión y densificación respectivamente. Esta propuesta debería variar en años futuros y aumentar el porcentaje de densificación frente a la extensión, motivo por el cual se propuso para los escenarios siguientes un proceso de cambio gradual hasta llegar a 60% para el crecimiento por extensión y 40% para crecimiento por densificación.
De Norte a Sur, se estableció que la ciudad crecerá por extensión. Al Norte: al Oriente y al Poniente se cree que podría ser por densificación, áreas residenciales y sector rural e industrial. Todas estas percepciones son a partir de proyectos que están vislumbrándose en la ciudad y que para este ejercicio son un supuesto.
4. PROJECT IMPLEMENTACION
In the 1998-1999 period, Antofagasta, used the RADIUS Project (Risk Assessment Tools Diagnosis of Urban Areas against Seismic Disasters), which generated maps over land, structures, vital lines, schools quality, apart from the distribution of emergency services, population and map of intensities, among others.
Another contribution to the project was the development of a seismic scenario, describing what would eventually happen with Antofagasta facing a similar or a stronger than 8° Richter earthquake, finalizing with 21 action plans, some of which have been done by the local Town Hall.
RADIUS methodology was extended to most of the cities in the North of Chile, through the use of research projects by the Catolica del Norte University. In the year 2000, an evaluation of the city after the use of the project was effectuated, which measured the level of commitment and execution of the proposed action plans during this program.
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Later on, in the 2000 - 2001 period, the city was able to develop the GESI Project (Global Earthquake Safety Initiative), which consisted in the use of 8 questionnaires referred to planning and emergency. This project pointed to recognize the lacks of the city in matters of emergency response as long as in medic services as in organisms connected to the administration of the disaster after an earthquake has occurred. The results of all used projects have been incorporated to the Antofagasta Regulator Plan, recently proved.
Currently, the city is executing the CCT Project (Cross-Cutting Transversal Project: Reduction of natural disasters in Asia, Latin America, and the Caribbean: UNESCO’s International Initiative to Promote Human Security and Sustainable Development by Reducing the Impact of Natural Disasters), known in Antofagasta as RADIUS II, with the intention of giving continuity to all new efforts after this initiative in the North zone of Chile.
This program was formally initialized in the city in May this year, and it was receipted by Antofagasta Town Hall, in the aspects of urban planning and education, through its Communal Secretaryship in Planning (SERCOPLAN), Direction of Municipal Works (DOM) and Education Department of the Municipal Corporation of Social Development (CORMUDESO). In its technical aspect, the project has been supported by the Architecture, Construction and Engineering Faculties, besides the Geologic Science Department of Catolica del Norte University and associated investigators.
Was started in May with a series of interviews to the local authorities such as the former Mayor Pedro Araya, the Intendente Jorge Molina and the Regional Director of Emergency, Hernán Vargas. After the meetings there was a presentation seminar and 2 training groups about the software usage. At the same time, work groups dedicated to education and planning were formed, areas that involve the project.
Since the beginning of the program in the city, the local work group has focused its efforts not only in getting technical data, but in spreading this data and the program results through different institutions that are part of the city. Among them, the Firemen and the Army and the Order Forces, besides a wide covering by the local media.
Currently, the new Mayor of Antofagasta, Daniel Adaro Silva, has reaffirmed his commitment on the program development in the city and has committed his support to the initiative, situation that was publicly revealed by the local authority on September the 10th 2003, after assuming his position.
Posteriormente, el Alcalde Adaro, ha participado estrechamente de las entrevistas y reuniones con los asesores del Proyecto y ha comprometido a la Municipalidad de Antofagasta a ejecutar programas y proyectos destinados a efectivamente reducir el riesgo sísmico en la ciudad y reducir las tasas de riesgo y vulnerabilidad ante la posibilidad de desastres, como asimismo, de contribuir a mejorar la educación en esta materia tanto entre las personas que habitan en los sectores más vulnerables y fortalecer el acercamiento, capacitación y acercamiento entre los profesionales de la Municipalidad y otros expertos científico-técnicos de las universidades locales.
5. CURRENT AND FUTURE URBAN EARTHQUAKE RISK
In terms of evolution in different temporary cuttings 2003 – 2002 from results of these parameters, a mild but sustained decrease of the number of deaths can be observed (from 217.5 in 2003 to 168 in 2022), and an also sustained increase of the number of injured (from 5,721.1 in 2003 to 8, 491.5 in 2022). This can be produced or has a relation with the projected improvement of building quality, what makes foresee a reduction in structure total collapse and, therefore, a reduction of the score of dead people, and an increase on building partial damages and for that reason, an increase on the amount of injured people.
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Nevertheless, in this numeric comparison it is important to highlight that perceptually, about the population corresponding the temporary cut, deaths and injured people decrease in a sustained way. This means that the way that the growth of the city is being projected it is itself a risk reduction form in front the quake.
Considering the geological location of Chilean territory, talking about the active continental edge, between Nazca Plate and South America Plate, on the other hand, big earthquakes in the North of Chile, that indicate a period of returning of 120 years and after the seismic experience lived in the year 1995, it is probably that the characteristics of that quake are repeated within the period 2003 – 2022, in which the investigation is framed and taking into account territory areas that are concentrating energy, the following base scenario of the quake was supposed:
Modeling base quake characteristics (2003 – 2022):
Depth: 25 Km. / Location: 100 Km. NW Antofagasta (in Mejillones) / Magnitude: 8.2 / Time: 01:11 A.M.
The same scenario was used to model every temporary requested cuttings (current, 5, 10, 15 and 20 years), to obtain comparable data relative to growing projections of the city. On the other hand, it was estimated as necessary utilize the same base scenario (city of the 2003) to generate 15 new seismic scenarios in which only one factor was modified.
Soils:
Antofagasta is situated in a maritime abrasion platform, cut in Andean volcanic rocks, with a classic sedimentary crust somehow saline of irregular distribution and thickness variable from 0.5 to 10 m.
6. MAIN IDENTIFIED PROBLEMS
1. Mala Calidad de la Construcción: En términos generales en el año 2003, más del 60% de las edificaciones se destinan a vivienda y presentan grados importantes de precariedad o informalidad (campamentos, barrios populares de autoconstrucción o construcciones de hasta tres pisos sin cumplimiento de normativa). Por otro lado las construcciones destinadas a usos comerciales representan en promedio un 15% y las destinadas a actividades industriales y productivas representan un 7%.
Las Unidades Territoriales que presentan mayores problemas en la calidad de la construcción, corresponden a vastas áreas con predominio de mala o baja calidad constructiva, alta densidad poblacional y malos suelos, principalmente en las zonas altas de ladera de cerros de estas unidades territoriales, donde se concentran densidades importantes de población de estratos sociales bajos.
Cabe indicar, que para el último sismo del año 95 de magnitud Ms=7.3, de acuerdo a informe del Dpto. de Ingeniería de la UCN (Arévalo, Tapia, 1995), 4550 viviendas presentaron daños, correspondiente al 8,5% del total. Las viviendas dañadas se emplazaban principalmente sobre la cota 150 s.n.m. (ladera de cerros), en gran parte debido a deslizamientos de bases.
2. Necesidad de perfeccionamiento normativo en temas de riesgo y planificación de zonas de alta vulnerabilidad: Aún cuando la ciudad cuenta con un Plan Regulador Comunal aprobado el año 2002, y con normativas estrictas de nivel nacional respecto a edificación sismorresistente, es posible avanzar más en la incorporación del tema de la reducción del riesgo por desastres naturales, especialmente en lo relacionado con la detección y regulación de las zonas de mayor vulnerabilidad (sísmica, por tsunami, por aluvión, etc.).
Final Report UNESCO CCT Initiative: Reduction of Natural Disasters in Asia, Latin America, and the Caribbean
En este sentido, se ha detectado la necesidad de realizar estudios de detalles de las zonas vulnerables y establecer estrategias para la reducción del riesgo para la población en cada uno de los casos.
3. Carencias en capacitación técnica, información científica estadística y conocimiento de la población en materias de reducción de riesgos: Se ha detectado que un aspecto importante para la reducción del riesgo debe orientarse al fomento de la responsabilidad personal y social, estimulando un aumento de los niveles de conciencia ciudadana. Al mismo tiempo es importante reforzar en la gestión de las instituciones públicas, el manejo de las variables de reducción de riesgo e implementar su estudio científico en las universidades locales, de tal forma de preparar a técnicos, profesionales, docentes y científicos en estas materias.
4. Vulnerabilidad de líneas vitales e infraestructuras urbanas. Sistema sanitario. Las redes de suministro de agua potable se emplazan en líneas longitudinales en las partes altas de la ciudad, atravesando el sistema de quebradas y microquebradas transversales existentes. En caso se sismo dichos pontos han demostrado vulnerabilidad, acrecentando el riesgo de colapso del sistema. Al mismo tiempo, se ha detectado desgaste de material en algunos sectores de la red matriz. Para ello existe un plan de recambio que culminaría en el año 2016, situación que queda en suspenso a causa del concesionamiento a privados de la empresa sanitaria. Depósitos de combustibles. La potencialidad de incendios y explosiones por la existencia de depósitos de combustibles (bencinas, petróleo, gas, industrias químicas) en el radio urbano, es un factor de alto riesgo, sin embargo existen normativas locales para la erradicación de algunas de estas empresas a una zona industrial. Sistemas de Electrificación. Los problemas podrían darse en la sustentación de algunas estructuras, por los tipos de suelo en donde se ubica la postación, las centrales eléctricas o las redes de Telecomunicaciones y por la gran existencia de tendido aéreo.
5. Zonas de mala calidad de suelos y áreas de riesgo por peligro de deslizamiento de masas: Aún cuando la ciudad de Antofagasta presenta en general suelos de buena calidad, lo que aminora el impacto de posibles sismos, existen algunas zonas de suelos blandos o de relleno, que sin ser excluyentes respecto a la posibilidad de construcción, revisten interés en el cuidado constructivo de la edificación. Ejemplos importantes en este caso son las zonas de relleno del área central de la ciudad, principalmente en la zona portuaria, y las zonas de crecimiento extensivo norte de la ciudad.
7. PROPOSED SOLUTIONS
SHORT-TERM (0 a 5 years) • Modificación del Plan Regulador Comunal. • Sistema de indicadores de riesgo sísmico en el Plan de Desarrollo Comunal PLADECO. • Red de Monitoreo de actividad sísmica en el área urbana de la comuna. • Formación de una Unidad de Vivienda Social de la Municipalidad de Antofagasta. • Implementación Curso Básico Gratuito de Edificación Sismorresistente. • Creación de una Corporación de Derecho Privado sin fines de lucro de la Universidad Católica del Norte, para el estudio, investigación y asesorías en materia de riesgo natural de la Comuna. • Exigencia de estudios de riesgo y de revisión independiente de ingeniería en el área portuaria. • Capacitación y perfeccionamiento de profesionales y académicos de la Municipalidad de Antofagasta y Universidades locales en temas de reducción de riesgos naturales. • Capacitación y educación social para la comunidad organizada en zonas de alta vulnerabilidad. • Implementación de un Sistema de Información Geográfico SIG orientado a la recopilación de datos históricos y actuales relacionados con desastres naturales. • Creación de una página Web incorporando información didáctica y estadística relativa a reducción de riesgos por catástrofes naturales en Antofagasta.
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MID-TERM (6 a 15 years) • Definición normativa y acondicionamiento de espacios de seguridad en zonas de alta vulnerabilidad sísmica. • Evaluación sísmica y programa de mejoramiento constructivo de equipamientos de salud y educación públicos. • Estudio de detalle de zonas de ladera de cerros de altas pendientes y riesgo de remoción de masas y definición de zonas de exclusión de urbanización. • Campaña de fiscalización de calidad de construcciones en zonas de mayor vulnerabilidad sísmica y plan de asesoría técnica en casos extremos.
LONG-TERM (15 a 25 years) • Evaluación y plan de mitigación de los puntos más vulnerables de los sistemas de infraestructuras básicas urbanas (agua potable, alcantarillado, electricidad y vialidad urbana). • Erradicación de campamentos irregulares emplazados en zonas de alta vulnerabilidad sísmica definidas como excluyentes para la urbanización. • Estudio diagnóstico y Plan de optimización de la red de cuarteles de Bomberos. Proyectos y ejecución de nuevos cuarteles de Bomberos en zonas de mayor vulnerabilidad sísmica.
8. COST-BENEFIT ANALYSIS
De las propuestas planteadas anteriormente, varias de ellas ya están siendo evaluadas para su ejecución, ya sea por Ordenanza Municipal o porque la Ley Nacional así lo requiere. Ejemplo de ello, son los planes de erradicación de la pobreza, que deberían culminar hacia el 2006, o al menos estar cumplidas en un 70% en todo el territorio chileno en esa fecha. Este proceso integra a Ministerios, Municipios, Secretarias y otros organismos.
El principal factor de riesgo en Antofagasta, es la infraestructura. En los análisis, reiterativamente, un número importante de viviendas resultaban dañadas tras un sismo importante, de ahí la necesidad de fortalecer el área de planificación en las propuestas.
De un total de 18 estrategias, 4 resultan ser las más urgentes, ya sea por su importancia en el cambio de la normativa local para mejorar no sólo la construcción, sino la planificación y ordenamiento territorial, de manera de lograr cambios permanentes en la ciudad. Tres de las propuestas están destinadas específicamente a la planificación, entre ellas la formación de una Unidad de Vivienda Social de la Municipalidad de Antofagasta, Modificación del Plan Regulador Comunal y la Erradicación de campamentos irregulares emplazados en zonas de alta vulnerabilidad sísmica definidas como excluyentes para la urbanización. A ello se suma la necesidad de capacitación y educación social para la comunidad organizada en zonas de alta vulnerabilidad, de manera que la norma legal esté apoyada por la información y conocimiento de la comunidad. Ambos factores, planificación y educación son indispensables para reducir efectivamente la potencialidad de pérdidas por desastres.
Por los altos costos que representan al 2022, se prevé una implementación paulatina de los proyectos empezando por aquellos que tengan resultados en la generación de conciencia sobre la materia y paralelamente por aquellos que a pesar de su costo, sean factibles de ejecutarse ya sea por ordenanza local o por norma nacional, ejemplo de ello es el Plan Nacional de Erradicación de la Pobreza, que plantea la erradicación de los campamentos y tomas ilegales hacia el 2006, en al menos un 70%. Este esta materia, están integrados Ministerios, Municipios, Secretarías y otros organismos. Asimismo, el Plano Regulador Comunal, puede ser modificado en un plazo de uno a dos años. De ahí la importancia de gestionar los cambios que involucren la reducción del riesgo como factor de planificación en
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el menor plazo posible, de manera de hacer permanente y bajo norma legal todas las nuevas edificaciones y proyecciones urbanas.
Respecto de la formación de una unidad de vivienda, esta servirá para fiscalizar las construcciones, ayudar a las personas a mejorar sus propias casas, entre otras. Estos tres programas ya están siendo evaluados.
Sobre la capacitación y educación de las personas, esto se transforma en una necesidad, de manera de generar un cambio de actitud sobre lo que significa estar preparados ante un desastre y asimismo, fomentar la seguridad de las personas.
9. PRESENTATION OF RESULTS TO THE COMMUNITY
Desde que se inició el proyecto en Antofagasta, el equipo técnico conformado para el estudio, se ha preocupado no sólo del análisis, sino de la divulgación masiva de la información y resultados obtenidos. Es así que, se han realizado dos seminarios en la ciudad durante el año, además de exposiciones técnicas a instituciones como la Policía, Bomberos, Ejército y otros, de manera de dar a conocer y fomentar el interés de las personas en el manejo y reducción del riesgo.
Asimismo, la prensa local, ha respaldado una vez más la iniciativa con reportajes y notas informativas aparecidas tanto en medios escritos como televisivos y de páginas web.
Esta divulgación informativa también se realizó con la aplicación de dos proyectos escolares demostrativos llamados Riesgolandia y Big One, los que permitieron hacer una evaluación del nivel de conocimiento que los niños de la ciudad tienen sobre los desastres.
Final Report UNESCO CCT Initiative: Reduction of Natural Disasters in Asia, Latin America, and the Caribbean
Asimismo, se empleó como medio de difusión la internet, a través de boletines informativos enviados por correo electrónico a los asistentes a los seminarios, quienes pueden manifestar sus opiniones y sugerencias al equipo de trabajo.
Tras la reunión en Tijuana, las autoridades locales de Antofagasta han determinado continuar con las acciones propuestas como resultado del estudio, priorizando los cambios en el Plano Regulador Comunal y el acercamiento con las personas.
También se ha planteado la posibilidad de un Simposio sobre Manejo y Reducción del Riesgo, abierto a la comunidad de manera que quién lo desee pueda aprender sobre la materia e informarse adecuadamente con los profesionales y expertos en la materia.
10. CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
Conclusions:
El mayor problema de Antofagasta, es el colapso de edificaciones por mala calidad constructiva y alta densificación en áreas bien específicas, que corresponden a unidades territoriales cercanas al centro neurálgico de la ciudad, a fin de acceder a los servicios básicos, trabajos y otras actividades.
Se requiere de nuevos polos de desarrollo que les permitan a las personas construir sus viviendas en áreas más seguras y planificadas. Bajo esta premisa, se postulan 18 propuestas de manejo y mitigación del riesgo relacionada en su mayoría con la planificación urbana, materia de relevancia si se considera que una ciudad mal planificada aumenta su potencialidad de pérdidas.
Lo que actualmente existe, deberá acogerse a programas de erradicación, educación y capacitación para reducir el impacto de un desastre en zonas vulnerables. En resumen, se requiere de planificación y educación permanente para lograr 1. cambio de actitud frente al tema, 2. una ciudad más segura y 3. pérdidas como consecuencia de un desastre.
A nivel de los resultados más específicos, es posible decir que para la distribución de edificios dañados respecto a 9 unidades territoriales existentes al 2003 en Antofagasta: tres son las áreas que presentan mayor cantidad de edificios dañados, totalizando 4332, de un total dañado de 6375. Esto equivale a un 67,95%. Estas se ubican en pie de monte, en el área centro sur de la ciudad y representan el 35% de la población.
El número de edificios dañados podría bajar entre un 6,0 y 6,9% de ejecutarse las propuestas de planificación planteadas por el estudio como medidas de mitigación y reducción del riesgo.
Para el análisis de muertos, se establece que de las 9 unidades territoriales definidas en la ciudad, tres de ellas (La Chimba, Nicolás Tirado y Salar del Carmen), concentran el 75% del total de fallecidos. Es decir, 150 personas de un total de 200 estimados por el programa. Esta tasa de mortalidad podría reducirse al menos en un 30.5% con medidas efectivas.
De los estudios realizados, se aprecia un incremento en la tasa de heridos, que de 4200 al año 2003, superan los 5 mil lesionados en el 2022. Esta podría verse reducida en un 5,9%, sólo si son implementadas medidas de reducción del riesgo.
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11. THE FUTURE
Se estén haciendo evaluaciones de las propuestas que podrían integrarse al Plano Regulador de Antofagasta para reducir el impacto de un desastre, los que serían incorporados en un plazo de uno a dos años, según lo establece la Ley.
Estos cambios y sugerencias en la normativa, vienen a complementar el Capítulo VI del documento que dice relación con Catástrofes Naturales. Asimismo, ya fueron puestas en vigor exigencias especiales para la construcción de edificaciones en zonas catalogadas de alto riesgo, ejemplo de ello es el proyecto inmobiliario del Puerto de Antofagasta en una zona de relleno, el que ahora debe entregar un informe técnico de suelos y de riesgo ante desastres naturales.
En temas más urgentes, el municipio pretende comenzar a partir del segundo semestre del 2004 con exposiciones sobre la materia en las zonas identificadas como de mayor vulnerabilidad y enseñar técnicas constructivas que reduzcan la potencialidad de daños.
12. CONTACTS
Municipalidad de Antofagasta: It is indicated through Municipal document ORD. E. Nº 698/2003, signed by former Mayor Pedro Araya and reaffirmed for the current Mayor, Daniel Adaro Silva, that the coordinators of the project through the Town Hall are:
Final Report UNESCO CCT Initiative: Reduction of Natural Disasters in Asia, Latin America, and the Caribbean
• Ernesto López Bugueño, Architect, SECOPLAN Director, Joel Becerra Fuentes Architect, SECOPLAN Roberto Rivera Romero Architect, Urban Assessor (DOM), Claudio Castillo, Architect, DOM and Javier Mandiola, Architect. [email protected] http://www.municipalidaddeantofagasta.cl
Catholic of the North University • Mario Pereira A., Geologist, General Director in Investigation and Post Grade Juan Music T., Civil Engineer, Alexandra Joo V., Architect, María Soledad Bembow, Geologist. [email protected] http://www.ucn.cl
Associated Investigator Catholic of the North University • Cinthia Rojas, Journalist and Project Coordinator - Gloria Paredes Li Yau, Journalist. [email protected] [email protected]
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UNESCO CCT Initiative Disaster Risk Reduction in Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean Kathmandu, Nepal, City Report
1- CITY OVERVIEW Kathmandu Metropolitan City (KMC) lies in Kathmandu Valley, which is located in the middle part of Nepal. It is the largest of the municipalities and serves as capital of the country. Kathmandu is also the economic and cultural capital of the country. Numerous historical monuments, the national heritage, including 8 World Heritage Sites, are located in the Valley.
Fig. 1: Location of Kathmandu City The municipal area of KMC encompasses about 50.8 sq. km, comprises 35 wards of which 12 cover the historic city core. Salient features of the metropolitan city are summarized in the following table. Table 1: Kathmandu Metropolitan City at a glance location: 27°42'north latitude and 85°20' east longitude. Altitude 1,350 meters. Area 50.8 sq. km. Population 6,71,846 (2001) No. of households 52,155 (2001) No. of building 79,458 Pop. growth rate 4.8% Average Income US$ 430.00 Water/sewerage coverage 60% Electricity service coverage 100% Telephone service coverage 80% Health Services 50 hospitals and nursing homes. Educational institutions 23 colleges, 98 higher secondary schools, 50 lower secondary schools, 236primary schools, 110 pre-primary schools. Rivers Bagmati, Bishnumati, Dhobi Khola, Samakhusi, Tukucha, Bhacha khusi, Balkhu, Manamati. Total length of urban roads 1036 km. Bridges (total number) 61.
Final Report UNESCO CCT Initiative: Reduction of Natural Disasters in Asia, Latin America, and the Caribbean
Kathmandu is the nation's main business center and largest market. The city's economic output is worth more than NRs. 170 billion per year. It has the highest per capita income in the country, at more than NRs. 24,000 i.e. US$ 430 (Nepal Living Standard Survey 1996). Its human development indicators are also quite high. Life expectancy at birth is 67 years; adult literacy rate is more than 70 percent. Trade, tourism, and service sector are the major economic activities. It occupies hub of national transportation system, with road connection to various parts of the country. It is the tourist gateway of Nepal with almost 90 percent of the foreign visitors arriving by air at Tribhuvan International Airport. It has also been an important manufacturing centre for such exportable items like carpets, readymade garments, and other handicraft products. Information technology, financial institutions, other service sectors etc have shown an increasing trend in the recent years. The city possesses one of the greatest concentrations of architectural treasures in the world. The high level of craftsmanship can be seen in the artworks that ornament the ancient temples, palace buildings and domestic houses. Most of the remarkable cultural wealth is located in the City Core. 2- GEOLOGY AND DISASTER HISTORY The Kathmandu Valley is considered to be an ancient lake that was filled up in recent geological times by the sediments derived from the rapid erosion in the surrounding hills. The thick valley sediments are considered to be capable of wave-amplification during earthquakes which phenomenon could be accentuated by potential basin-effect because of the shape. The valley is roughly 25 km in radius, with Bagmati River system exhibiting a remarkable centripetal drainage pattern. Two active fault systems are identified in the southern part of the valley. These are assessed to be capable of generating earthquakes up to magnitude 6.6 Richter. Kathmandu Valley is prone to periodic floods, land subsidence, and also occasional landslides, especially along the terrace escarpments. However, earthquakes are the most dreaded form of natural hazards. Earthquakes are an unavoidable part of Kathmandu Valley's future, just as they have been a part of its past. The earliest recorded earthquake was in 1255 AD, and apparently occurred near Kathmandu. It had maximum epicentral Modified Mercalli Intensity (MMI) of X which suggests that its magnitude could have been approximately M 7.7. An earthquake with the same approximate magnitude occurred in 1408, while in 1608, an approximate Magnitude 7.0 occurred at the same location. Three earthquakes of similar size occurred in Kathmandu Valley in the 19th Century: in 1810, 1833, and 1866 AD. A 1934 AD earthquake destroyed 20 percent and damaged 40 percent of the valley’s building stock. Historically, the valley was impacted during the past 8 centuries by nine episodes of devastating earthquakes with larger parts of the valley subjected to shaking intensities greater than IX in the MMI scale. The seismic record of the region suggests that earthquakes shaking similar in size to the 1934 event occur approximately every 75 years in the valley, indicating that a devastating earthquake is inevitable in the long term and likely in the near future. Figure 2 shows the the damage of residentioal building in 1934 earthquake.
Fig 2 Building destruction in Kathmandu by 1934 earthquake
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3- CITY'S GROWTH
Kathmandu has been densely inhabited urban centre from historical time. Attracted by economic opportunities and modern facilities, the city has in recent years experienced a flood of migrants. The population, as a result, has been increasing rapidly. The present demography of the city is very cosmopolitan in makeup. According to the census of 2001, KMC is home to 671,846 residents, which covers 3% of the national population, with 79,500 buildings. Urban expansion outside the compact historic city core area had begun in the early 19th century and the rapid urban growth of the city occurred only after the political changes of 1950. The city grew initially in the east, northeast and north on easily accessible well drained highlands along the major arterial reads. Urban growth accelerated further during the 1970 and 80s especially after the construction of the ring road, a more areas were made accessible and today covers most of the municipal areas, including the low-lying flood plains. Because of the centralization of administrative, political, tourism, economic and industrial activities in the valley large- scale in migration has occurred in the cities of the valley, with KMC absorbing more than 83% of the migrants in 1991. Migration has been one of the major factors for the city's rapid expansion as well as acute housing problems. Kathmandu Valley’s rapid population growth exacerbates its earthquake vulnerability. Rural exodus, especially due to the ongoing political unrest, drives urban growth at even faster rate, resulting in an urban growth rate of 4.8% and one of the highest urban densities in the world. Growth trend for the city has been assessed for future in respect to population and building construction. Current growth rate and trend are used for the projection of population, whereas two types of scenarios are used for the projection of buildings and building typologies. In first scenario current growth rates and current trend of development are used and in the second scenario improved trend with current growth rates are used. Total period of 20 years is considered for the improved scenario, in which, for first five years, 50% of the total building construction is considered to be improved, for next five years 70% and for another 10 years 90% of the total building construction is considered to be improved. Possible saturation level of urban growth in different zones and wards of the municipality is also considered in the projection. Potential future built up area is calculated and checked according to the existing residential area and available area for future development. Sample calculation for this is as shown.
Box 1: Example calculation of built up area projection Potentiiall Future Buiillt Up Area Callcullatiion Totall exiistiing resiidentiiall area of a ward = R = 137.77 ha (e.g. ward 10) Average pllot siize = P = 177 sq.m. Number of exiistiing buiilldiings = H = 2964 Totall exiistiing buiillt up area = B = P X H = 52.14 ha Resiidentiiall area stiillll avaiillablle for buiillt up = R1 = R – B = 85.63 ha Exiistiing agriicullturall area iin that ward = A = 6.02 ha Totall area avaiillablle for buiillt up = B1 = R1 + A = 92 ha Net resiidentiiall area avaiillablle for buiillt up = N = 70 % of B1 = 64 ha Number of potentiiall buiilldiings = P.B. = N / P = 3624
Similarly, KMC currently has 1036 km of roads including blacktopped, graveled, earthen and other types of roads and 373 km of major water supply and sewerage lines. This information is collected from different concerned agencies like Department of Roads, Nepal Water Supply Corporation. Past studies carried out by KMC itself and various other agencies are considered for the projection of these lifelines systems. Figure 3 shows the distribution of growth trend of Kathmandu city.
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Fig.3 Relative growth trend of Kathmandu city in terms of population density
4- IMPLEMENTATION OF UNESCO CCT INITIATIVE IN KATHMANDU
The project on "Earthquake Disaster Risk Reduction in Kathmandu” under “UNESCO CCT Initiative: Disaster Risk Reduction in Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean” has been implemented by Kathmandu metropolitan City (KMC) with the technical support from national society for Earthquake Technology- Nepal (NSET). The project was started with the visit of the Project Coordinator and UNESCO Consultant, Dr. Carlos Villacis to Kathmandu in June 2003. A project kick-off seminar was organized in Kathmandu during his visit. In order to carry out the regular project work, a Working Group was formed with the Chief of department of Social welfare, KMC as a coordinator. The Working Group comprises members from Department of Urban Planning, Department of Public works, Department of Environment and Information System Centre of the city. The Information System Centre of the city was assigned as work- station of the project, where computer facility and all relevant information are available.
TRAININGS AND ORIENTATION PROGRAMS
A number of training programs were organized during the project period targeting to KMC professionals to build up their capacity in disaster risk management. The first training was conducted in June 2004 during the visit of Project Coordinator from UNESCO in June 2003 focusing on the use and application of RADIUS tool in managing the earthquake risk of the City. Then, NSET assisted in installing RADIUS tool in municipal professionals' computers. The tool was installed in computers in Social Welfare Department, Information System Centre, Urban Development department, Public Work Department and Environment Department. RADIUS software CD and booklets and publication on RADIUS were distributed among professionals. After RADIUS installation, NSET professionals gave training to the Working-Group members on execution of the program. During the course of training, the Working-Group members felt need on orientation on earthquake disaster and its management particularly the planning aspects of disaster mitigation of the city. As per their demand, NSET conducted series of lecture programs for working group members and other municipal staffs. This helped them understand the risk and fundamentals of risk management principles. The required technical input, particularly on use of RADIUS tool, was given to the members of the group through trainings. It helped build capacity of KMC to assess the potential risk of their city and to analyze the situation for planning to reduce the risk. It was the objective of the project. . After the conduction of series of such programs, the Working Group seems to have developed much enthusiasm for a very effective execution of the project.
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EARTHQUAKE RISK ASSESSMENT OF THE CITY For the earthquake risk assessment of the city data of infrastructures and housing was collected from different sources and processed for input in RADIUS. Example of data input is shown in fig.4. During the data analysis using RADIUS, some difficulties were encountered, which were solved after consultation with UNESCO Consultant, Dr. Carlos Villacis and from the experience of the other project implementing cities shared through him.
Soil Type Distribution Map (Colors show Value Region (City) Name : KATHMANDU Range of mesh data and characters show Total Population Count : 671846 Total Building Count : 79458 333 Total Mesh : 61 333333 22 Spacing of Mesh(km) : 1 533333222 554313222 554411222 Value Range Color Description 5554112222 for mesh 555 12222 0 Unknown 222 1 Hard Rock 22 2 Soft Rock 3 Medium Soil 4 Soft Soil
Fig 4: Soil data input in RADIUS tool.
Result of the evaluation was obtained in terms of building damage and casually for existing trend and improved condition as envisaged after implementation of seismic building code and land- use regulation. The matrix of risk assessment is shown in fig. 5.
current 5 years 10 years 20 years later later later Scenarios as it improved as it improved as it improved is is is Day 1934 EQ Night
Day Kobe EQ Night
Day Mid Nepal EQ Night
Fig 5: Risk evaluation Matrix
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PRESENTATION OF CITY’S EARTHQUAKE RISK TO LOCAL AND INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY A workshop on “Risk Assessment of Kathmandu through RADIUS" was organized in September 2003. There were around 40 participants at the workshop. The participants represented from different departments of KMC, NGOS, INGOS, Government line agencies, media and university teachers and students The workshop covered the paper presentation by the experts of both KMC and NSET in Earthquake risk, urban growth and RADIUS assessment output followed by comments and discussions with suggestions to reduce the risk of the foreseen earthquakes from participants. In the workshop, the Municipal authorities emphasized on adopting affordable and effective risk management technologies and developing sound urban growth policies to minimize the risk. As the assessment clearly depicted the very high risk of the city of Kathmandu, It was realized in the meeting that it is already late to implement earthquake risk reduction activities in the city. The suggestion was, among others, on some measures like strengthening of structures as it was observed the existing risk is at unacceptable level. The workshop participants proposed mainly the following course of actions: 1- Implementation of seismic building code 2- Development of Preparedness and Emergency response plan for the city 3- Establishment of Emergency Operation Centre (EOC) within KMC 4- Implementation of incentive and disincentive system for strengthening existing buildings in core area. Later, a delegation from Kathmandu attended the UNESCO Paris mid-term meeting on the project, where they met international experts and members of other cities working in their cities under the UNESCO Initiative: Disaster Risk reduction in Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean. In the meeting Kathmandu team presented their works and shared the experiences of the other cities. They received guidance and suggestions from experts and representatives from different International organizations in effectively implementing planning mitigation measures in Kathmandu to reduce the risk of earthquake disaster. The inputs from Paris meeting were instrumental later in formulating the action plan of earthquake disaster risk reduction discussed later in this report.
5- PRESENT AND FUTURE SEISMIC RISK
RADIUS program was used to estimate the potential damage in the city for different seismic scenarios for both present and future times. The future risk of city was estimated for two cases: ‘as it is trend’ and ‘with improvement’. Effective seismic code implementation and land use regulation as per development plan to be prepared considering the seismic hazard are the conditions for the improvement.
PRESENT RISK
The assessment shows that the risk of city at present is very high as the potential casualty in case of repetition of 1934 great Nepal-Bihar earthquake is more than 14,000 with injuries more than 100,000. A total of about 41,000 buildings out of 80,000 building with metropolitan city area will be collapsed in earthquake similar to that of 1934 if it happens in present time Kathmandu. The potential damage distribution shows concentration of destruction will be in city core area where the building stock is typically old adobe and masonry with 4-6 storey without aseismic elements in construction. About 100 km major road and 4 km water supply and sewer trunk line will be damaged in scenario earthquake at present time which will eventually cut the basic lifelines in the city. As the hospital and other institutional buildings are not in better position than the common residential buildings, the critical service will be impaired during earthquake. Public school buildings
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which are mostly old masonry and adobe are likely to be collapsed in case of earthquake similar to 1934 earthquake. Figure 5 shows a typical distribution of damage in city as RADIUS output.
Damaged Building Ratio Distribution Color Automatic Range Manual Range Region (City) Name : KATHMANDU Earthquake Name : 1934 Earthquake ID From To From To Total Population Counts : 671846 Occurrence Date : a 27.9 36.3 27.9 36.3 Total Building Count : 79458 Occurrence Time : 14.3 b 36.3 44.7 36.3 44.7 Total Mesh : 61 EQ Magnitude : 8.4 c 44.7 53.2 44.7 53.2 Spacing of Mesh(km) : 1 EQ Direction relative from Ref.Mesh : South West d 53.2 61.6 53.2 61.6 Reference Mesh : 2 EQ Distance(km) to Ref.Mesh : 100 Return Used Attenuation Equation : Fukushima & Tanaka - 1990 13 15 5 Use Automatic Use Manual Building Damage Summary Map Using Automatic Range (Cell characters show ColorID) The total building count are 79458 and 51% damaged Sr.No AreaID Area Name Bldg Damaged MDR (%) Counts Counts acc 1 1 Centre 11351 5545 48.8 abbcbb cc 2 2 East 25689 13405 52.2 ccbdcbcdd 3 3 North 21507 9919 46.1 ddcbcccdd 4 4 Core 8961 4960 55.3 dcddccdcd 5 5 West 11949 7041 58.9 dddddccccd Summary Information 79458 40869 51.4 ddd dcccc ddd dd
Fig. 5: Building Damage Distribution in city for scenario earthquake of Great 1934 Nepal- Bihar Earthquake at present time
FUTURE RISK Estimations were made for different scenario earthquakes to the future of the city. Damage estimations were made for 2006, 2011 and 2021AD to the city for two cases: 1) as it is growing without proper planning and 2) growing as per land- use plan considering seismic risk and seismic building code. The future risk of city lies basically on unplanned growth with no consideration of seismic hazard it possess. The current trend of accelerating population growth and unprecedented increasing rate of building construction leads to a great loss of lives and property in future earthquakes unless the growth is regulated by sound planning and building regulation which accounts the seismic hazard. The future risk of city in terms of casualty and building damage in different times is shown in table 2.
Table 2 Kathmandu city's risk under Scenario Earthquake 1934 for current trend Damage estimation in existing situation by 1934Eq
Total Total Average Total Total Total Time Building Dmg Bldg MDR Pop Day Death Injury Existing 79458 40869 51.4 989291 14042 130516 5 yrs 98234 49575 50.5 1147732 15752 147446 10 yrs 116063 58095 50.1 1362609 18348 174188 20 yrs 144406 71493 49.5 1989075 26209 251673
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Comparison of the risk between case of no intervention in current trend of city growth and intervention with planning tools and building regulation was made for different scenario earthquakes. Figure 6 compares the risk of city for two cases for scenario earthquake ‘1934 great Nepal-Bihar earthquake’ in different times and fig.7 compares the risk under scenario earthquake ‘ Mid-Nepal earthquake’, the earthquake envisaged by Japanese team as likely to be occurred in near future during “The study project on Earthquake Disaster Mitigation of Kathmandu valley, Kingdom of Nepal”, 2001-2002. The Mid-Nepal earthquake is supposed to produce MMI VIII as maximum intensity in Kathmandu.
Damage Estimate in case of 1934 Earthquake 250000 200000 Note: Scenario I - Under present 150000 trend of building construction
Scenario II - Under improved 100000 condition I.e. w hen the Building Codes are applied 50000
0 2006 2011 2021 Building Damage (Scenario I) 49575 58095 71493 Building Damage (Scenario II) 44117 48217 54596 Injury (Scenario I) 135065 159075 227541 Injury (Scenario II) 98617 100349 126102 Death (Scenario I) 14089 16254 22831
Death (Scenario II) 9970 9803 11847
Fig. 6 Future risk of City for Scenario earthquake ‘1934 Nepal-Bihar earthquake’
Damage Estimate in case of Mid-Nepal Earthquake
80000 70000 60000 50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 0 2006 2011 2021
Building Damage (Scenario I) 23936 27980 34457 Building Damage (Scenario II) 20956 22568 25143 Injury (Scenario I) 42345 49650 71148 Injury (Scenario II) 29891 29696 36562 Death (Scenario I) 1859 2122 3009 Death (Scenario II) 1278 1221 1462
Fig.7 Future risk of City for Scenario earthquake ‘Mid-Nepal earthquake’
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FACTORS CONTRIBUTING THE SEISMIC RISK OF THE CITY While processing the data collected for RADIUS assessment and looking the result of assessment from the tool in different scenario earthquakes under different conditions in different times from now on, the main contributing factors to the present and future earthquake risk of the city have been identified. Analyzing their characteristics, the working group found that some of them are natural elements in which we have limited or no controls like in soil condition and earthquake hazards due to active faults where as the other number of elements which contribute to the risk of city are human induced and are being generated because of bad or no planning and improper regulations of the city. The main elements contributing the risk of city and their characteristics are discussed here. 1. Growth of the city Population growth of the city is very high (4.64% annual). As Kathmandu is the capital, business centre and largest market of Nepal, people from all the parts of country, come into it for job and business. The migration has been one of the major factors for city's rapid growth both in terms of density and lateral expansion. The population density is 132 ph in an average with maximum 1025 ph in core area. The problem of housing with high number of occupants per buildings, very limited open spaces, narrow streets, vertical expansion of buildings without adequate base land coverage, hangings of rooms of buildings over the streets and encroachment of liquefiable river banks for housing are the result of the unplanned growth of the city to accommodate large number of population within the core of the city. All of these are the factors for increasing earthquake risk of city. The rate of housing construction within the city area is as high as 5000 building per year tending to diminish virtually all of the remaining open space in the city. The unplanned growth also resulted the lifeline service shortage to the citizens even in normal period. The problem will be acute in case of large disaster. Figure 8 shows the simple relation of risk and population growth as projected from past events for ‘no-intervention’ growth trend.
Fig. 8 Increasing seismic risk of Kathmandu relative to population growth
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2. Construction practice The building stock of the city, particularly, the core area is adobe or unreinforced brick masonry. Though current building construction practice use concrete and steel rod in addition to brick masonry, it does not comply the seismic requirement and in most of the cases inhibits even more vulnerability to earthquake because of the brittle failure potential it possesses. Actually the current building construction is characterized as hybrid of masonry and reinforced concrete with lack of ductility. Seismic building code is in place but has not been enforced. Hence, there is no regulation of building construction regarding seismic requirements. In the city, more than 90 percent of the construction is non-engineered and quality of the construction (material and workmanship) is very poor. The result of this construction culture increases the seismic vulnerability of the city day by day. Figure 9 shows a typical street of core area where the rules and mandates of seismic discipline is totally violated.
Fig. 9 Street of Kathmandu city in core area (Note the lateral expansion of buildings at upper level)
3. Seismicity of the area Kathmandu has been hit by earthquakes several times in the past resulting in huge loss of lives and properties. Historical records show that earthquake of maximum intensity IV or more repeats every 70-80 years interval. During the last 800 years, 9 large earthquake events are reported which hit Kathmandu badly. Last earthquake was in 1934 which killed more than 4000 people only in Kathmandu valley and destroyed almost then buildings. It has been already 70 years history and Kathmandu is just waiting another similar big earthquake at any time in future if earthquake simply follows its reccurrence rule. The frequency of different magnitude of earthquakes in and around Nepal that have impacts on Kathmandu is shown in Fig.10.
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Moreover, scientists have concern that there is a seismic gap in the part of Great Himalaya just west side of Kathmandu, which has large amount of accumulated seismic energy waiting to be released in next earthquake that may happen at any time now onwards. Figure 11 depicts the seismic gap in western part of Nepal, which is considered as a big threat to people living in the foot of Himalaya.
Magnitude-Frequency Data (1911-1991)
90 81 No. of Events 80 70
60 Approximate Recurrence 50 Interval, yr. 41 40 40 30 Events No. of 20 17 10 8 10 5 2 2 1 0 5 to 6 6 to 7 7 to 7.5 7.5 to 8 >8
Magnitude, Richter
Fig. 11 Frequency of different magnitude earthquakes in and around Nepal
Area of seismic gap
Fig. 12 Seismic gap in the Himalayan arch
4. Soil Condition and Collateral hazards
The most part of the city has very soft clay (lacustrine deposit) which may amplify the seismic wave during earthquake causing large amplitude vibration in the structures lying over it. Liquefiable sandy soil prevails in the flood plan of river and streams which run across the city. The structures lying over such sandy soil with high water table are at risk of subsidence and damage due to loss of bearing capacity and lateral flow soil because of liquefaction during earthquake. The lifeline networks which have large coverage including those liquefiable areas are at risk. The topography of the Kathmandu itself is more susceptible to have basin effect
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in case of earthquake when seismic wave will be vibrant and concentrated in bowl shaped valley with soft clay lying over the hard rock. All of these imply the need of careful planning and design of structures considering the risk of earthquake. Scientists and researchers suspect that Kathmandu may have same fate of Mexico valley that suffered heavily largely owing to its topography and soil condition in 1985 Mexico earthquake even in a distant earthquake because of the similarities the two cities have in the aspect of soil condition. The collateral hazard during earthquake, particularly, fire prevails as the city core has very dense housing without fire mitigation system. The masonry infilled wooden frame structures in core area of the city have potential risk of fire during earthquake. The narrow streets that prevent the passes of ambulance and fire brigade to the dense habitat may unease the fire control and impair the search and rescue operation that may be required immediately after the earthquake.
5. Seismic resistance and service capacity of lifeline systems and critical facilities Lifeline systems and critical facilities in the city are not under Municipal Corporation’s jurisdiction. The service like water, sanitation, electricity, communication, fire control etc. which will be acute need aftermath the earthquake to the citizen may not be effectively supplied to them unless those services are controlled or coordinated by local governments. It is simply because the local governments will be the immediate responders to the demand of citizens in case emergency. Lifeline systems in the Kathmandu lack the seismic provision in their design and construction as well as in operation. The assessment of seismic vulnerability of the water supply system of Kathmandu reveals the ignorance of seismic requirement in design and networking and also lack capability of facility operator to handle the emergency situation. The structural and non-structural assessment of hospitals in Kathmandu against seismic hazard shows that only 10 percent of the hospitals have the desired performance level for the emergency situation (Fig. 13). The Study on Earthquake Disaster Mitigation in the Kathmandu Valley, Kingdom of Nepal (SEDM) by JICA reports that 60 percent of the bridges in the city will be collapsed in next earthquake. Moreover, there are no emergency response and recovery plans for the lifeline and critical facilities considering large disasters and inter-institutional coordination has not been explored to handle emergency situation. All of these factors add the vulnerability of the society to earthquakes scaling it to a higher level.
Fig. 13 Seismic performance levels of hospitals in Kathmandu
Final Report UNESCO CCT Initiative: Reduction of Natural Disasters in Asia, Latin America, and the Caribbean
6- MAIN IDENTIFIED PROBLEMS
Analyzing the characteristic features of the factors that contribute to the seismic risk of the city and their consequences in society related to disaster, specific problems that the city will encounter in future are identified. Based on the natures of the problems and their impacts to the city in different time spans, and future risk of the city assessed using RADIUS as described in section 5.2, they are classified in 3 categories: • Short-term problems: problems that will surface from now to 5 years • Mid-term problems: problems that will surface from now to 10-15 years, and • Long-term problems: problems that will surface from now to 20-25 years The problems identified hereunder are expected to prevail only if proper planning and preventive and mitigation measures are not taken by Kathmandu Metropolitan City in due time.
SHORT-TERM PROBLEMS 1. Increased risk of life and property Risk assessment using RADIUS tool under different scenario earthquakes for a case that the city growth continues with same mechanism as it is now shows that the risk of casualty will be increased by 15% and 22% more buildings will be at risk of collapse in a large earthquake event. The problem is foreseen considering the current trend of migration, rate of new construction, lack of seismic consideration in design and construction and the low level of awareness and very slow onset of increasing technical know-how among professional communities responsible for design and supervision of construction. 2. Loss of opportunity to maintain the open spaces and evacuation routes If the limited open grounds remained so far are not preserved by enforcing land-use plan, the opportunity to maintain them will be lost within next 5 years now on. There will not be space for evacuation purpose in case of disaster and there will not be enough land to set up temporary shelter for large number of homeless, which is estimated as tens of thousands in the city in next big earthquake. So far, there is no planning for evacuation of people for a large disaster event and hence evacuation routes are not designated. If the proper precautions are not taken, the potential routes for evacuations will also be lost because of the haphazard construction and roadside encroachments. 3. Limited resource to be spent on development will itself build new risk Being a city of a least developed country, Kathmandu has very limited resource that can be invested for development efforts. The priority of development will definitely be building infrastructures which are backbone of any city. However, if proper planning tools are not employed taking account of the seismic risk, the infrastructure built with such limited resource will themselves be a source of risk for citizens in case of disaster.
MID-TERM PROBLEMS In 10-15 years time from now, the problems identified as short term will be further intense and situation will be worsened if no intervention is taken against the risk. As a spill over effect of those problems, following additional problems will be encountered in a larger domain: 1. The city will be saturate with risky built structures There will be no space remained open within the city area and all the lands, be them marshy, sloped or low leveled in river banks will be occupied by residential and other commercial buildings. This city will be extremely vulnerable to any kind of disaster including earthquakes, floods and fires.
Final Report UNESCO CCT Initiative: Reduction of Natural Disasters in Asia, Latin America, and the Caribbean
2. The tourism industry will be severely affected Tourism is the one of major industry in Nepal which largely contributes to national economy. Kathmandu city is the main attraction for tourist for its heritage sites, archeological important structures and holy places. Once there is a high per capita risk of casualty to the earthquake hazard due to increased vulnerability, the number of tourist coming to the city will be decreased. There will be two reasons for that: i) increased potential risk to be killed while being in Kathmandu, and ii) increased travel insurance premium imposed by insurance companies for those who want to travel risky areas. 3. Citizens will be frustrated with government mechanism and will be ignorant for personal and collective (community level) safety issues If the problem of seismic risk is not properly addressed by formal sector by the time of 10-15 years, the trust over the government bodies will be lost and frustration will be arose among citizens. The prevailing enthusiasm observed in personal and community level to act something beforehand the earthquake will also die over the time if there is no support and encouragement from formal institutions. By that time, the population will be aware of the risk information which can not be prevented by any means. The local government will be severely blamed for not taking any actions of mitigating the risk.
LONG-TERM PROBLEMS 1. A huge destruction by a big earthquake is likely to occur By next 20-25 years, a big earthquake is very likely to occur to hit the Kathmandu as the past history indicates that the reoccurrence time of earthquake having magnitude 8 or more is 80 years in average. Whereas the last big earthquake happened in 1934, Kathmandu is likely to be hit by another soon in future. The city will witness devastation resulting in more than 25000 casualties within the current metropolitan area. 2. National economy may suffer recession Following the major earthquake disaster that hits capital, the national economy, which is marginal, may suffer from recession that may irrecoverable in long run. The destruction of infrastructures, crippled business and industry, large number of homeless and jobless will pull own the national economy and people will lie on vicious circle of poverty. That will regenerate the vulnerability to the next disaster. 3. The communities may loss their identities Because of the extreme poverty that may be generated by large scaled disaster, people may not be able to maintain their social and cultural identities. That will be huge setback to the country in social aspect.
7- PROPOSED SOLUTIONS
In order to confront the identified problems, the Kathmandu Metropolitan City must undertake the action and measures that avert the next earthquake event from being a disaster. Those actions and measures should use planning tools rather than carrying out unorganized short term activities. The actions should be priority-basis considering the resources, capability, the city’s authority, social and political systems and, most importantly, the need. The strategy of risk minimization should be three pronged: 1) the increasing risk should be stopped by enforcing seismic regulation and implementing sound development plan for the new construction of infrastructures and buildings. 2) Measures should be taken to reduce the unacceptable current risk by setting environment to carry out rehabilitation work to the existing structures, and 3) High level of preparedness should be maintained to handle the disaster that may occur at any time in future. From the analysis of the future risk of the city and the identified problems, some courses of actions are proposed here to be undertaken by Kathmandu Metropolitan City. The measures are categorized in 1) urgent 2) mid-term and 3) long-term based on their appropriate time frame and needs of the city.
Final Report UNESCO CCT Initiative: Reduction of Natural Disasters in Asia, Latin America, and the Caribbean
URGENT MEASURES
1. Enforcement of Seismic building code in city In order to stop the increasing risk, the current national building code which has seismic requirement provision should be implemented in city level. The Local Self- Governance Act (2000) gives the authority to the local government to enforce such regulation. A comprehensive program should be devised and implemented for effective enforcement of the regulation. Those actions are envisaged as: • Establish institutional framework • Enforce seismic code provisions in building permit process • Develop capacity of KMC in facilitation, control and monitoring of seismic resistant construction • Develop compulsory certificate (earthquake-resistant-design training/education) system for engineers • Formulate policy of promoting mason training for earthquake resistant construction • Develop user-friendly manuals on “Design and construction of earthquake resistant houses”
2. Establishment of Emergency Response system Following actions must be undertaken by KMC in the aspect of preparedness: • Develop city and ward level earthquake preparedness and response plan • Develop response structure from Tole level to city level • Establish of Emergency Operation Centre
3. Develop land-use plan considering earthquake risk and put it into effect Kathmandu Metropolitan City does not have integrated development plan. The different sectoral plans were prepared in different times in past to address the particular problem but the integrated plan considering land- use for planned growth of city has not been prepared. It is absolute necessary for any city to have such plan and Kathmandu city should prepare it urgently considering the seismic risk. In particular, the land-use plan should address the following issues during the development of the plan: • Formulation of policy and program for identifying open spaces and preserving them • Designation of evacuation routes and sites: − connection of Chowks − utilization of other open spaces, parks − road space management for emergency relief − routes to evacuation sites • Development of mechanism of incentives for new construction in designated land (e.g. KMC’s land pooling area) and dis-incentives to control construction in dense area (e.g. core) • Control of construction in high hazard area (river belts, low lands)
Final Report UNESCO CCT Initiative: Reduction of Natural Disasters in Asia, Latin America, and the Caribbean
MID-TERM MEASURES The measures termed as ‘mid-term’ are not necessarily less important than the urgent measures. However, these measures may require more planning and may be accomplished in medium term time periods. Following actions are proposed which require relatively longer time in implementation: • Develop programs for seismic retrofitting of public structures • Conduct seismic zonation of the city − Seismic Hazard Mapping − Risk mapping based on physical and social vulnerability • Develop mechanism of incentives and dis-incentives for retrofitting of existing residential buildings • Establish mechanism of controlling/operating basic utility service (lifelines) by city government so that effective supply of services during emergency time is ensured • Promote education and awareness on earthquake safety to community
LONG-TERM MEASURES Long-term measures are proposed to address the problems of the city that require long term efforts and planning. These are the basically planning tools which help city create sustainable development. Following are the suggested measures: • Develop integrated plan of greater city so that disaster free development could be achieved with resource balance, density distribution and proper infrastructure planning • Support surrounding village areas with infrastructure and services so that population will be dispersed. • Establish linkage of city risk reduction plan with national development plan (5-year plan) • Prepare disaster recovery plan
BENEFITS FROM THE PROPOSED MEASURES
The actions and measures proposed above are to avert the problems identified. However, they require some investment from the local government and city residents. The actions and measures would be justifiable if they turnout more outcomes than the investment generating net benefits. Though the saving of lives from disaster is beyond the benefit analysis, the economic analysis considering the physical environment shows that the people, communities and the city will get benefit from the above measures in long run. Figure 14 shows an example of analysis in terms of risk reduction from the implementation of seismic building code in the city.
Final Report UNESCO CCT Initiative: Reduction of Natural Disasters in Asia, Latin America, and the Caribbean
60
50 48 45 40 40 37 Building Damage 29 30 Injury 27 24 Death 20 % decrease% 17 10 11
0 Short Medium Long Term Term Term
Fig. 14 Benefits from seismic building code implementation in the city
INSTITUTIONAL CAPACITY TO COPE WITH THE PROBLEMS
The project also assessed the institutional capacity of the Kathmandu Metropolitan City to cope with the identified problem by implementing proposed actions and measures. The most important resource, the commitment from authorities, has been found in the city as it was expressed in the meetings by the heads of the city and other senior officers. At present, technical capability is enough to launch the actions. However, the city has planned to build its capacity by training its professionals in disaster management field. The financial resource seems not as a problem as the city can generate the fund as it put it in priority action.
The assessment of the institutional capacity in different aspects is made as described here:
Knowledge
The professionals of KMC have a very good knowledge and experience of community mobilization. The experience can be utilized in disaster management very effectively. There is number of technical professionals working for the city , who can effectively deliver the required technical outputs for implementation of proposed actions of risk mitigation once they are trained for it. There is need of trainings to the professionals of the city in the field of disaster risk reduction both in technical and social/managerial field.
Legislation
Recently, there are some policy and legislative reforms taken place pertinent to the disaster management. Notably, they are:
1. Mandatory implementation of national building code The Bureau of Standards and Metrology has initiated a process for defining the draft Building Code as Nepal Standard. Several of the 22 documents that was prepared as the National Building Code, which is focused on seismic safety, has been accepted as Nepal Standards. Recently, the Council of Ministers has decreed that the stipulations of the National Building Code should be made obligatory for all government building constructions. It also urged the municipal authorities to
Final Report UNESCO CCT Initiative: Reduction of Natural Disasters in Asia, Latin America, and the Caribbean
strengthen the current building permit process so that code compliance becomes mandatory for all new constructions in the urban areas
2. Incorporation of disaster mitigation policy in tenth 5-year national plan For the first time in Nepal, the document on the 5-year development plan incorporates natural disaster management as one of the objectives of the government in order to contribute towards “making the (infrastructural) Construction and development projects of the country durable, sustainable and capable of providing the intended service”. Thus the development plan of the country now encourages prevention and mitigation as important efforts for disaster prevention (Tenth 5-year Development Plan, HMG/N, 2002). The policy statement in the plan includes preparation of long term disaster management action plan, incorporation of disaster risk in infrastructure construction projects, conduction of public awareness programs on disaster, establishment of central disaster management department and earthquake hazard mapping.
3. Local Self Governance Act and Kathmandu Metropolitan City Act The recently promulgated Local Self Governance Act 1999 (LSGA, 1999) gives a fresh momentum to the process of decentralization and devolution of authority. It empowers the local governments to undertake disaster management activities. Techno-legal aspects of mitigation actions are now considered within the jurisdiction of local governments. A separate act, notably, Kathmandu Metropolitan City Act, is being formulated in order to provide a comprehensive legal and policy framework for an effective governance of the capital. Now, Kathmandu Metropolitan city can develop and enforce bye-laws and regulations in different sector including disaster management. The need of the city is to have support from technical and professional organization to formulate policies and develop regulation.
Institution
There is a Disaster Management Section within the Social Welfare Department which has the overall responsibility of disaster preparedness and emergency response. The following defines the strategic objectives pursued by the Social Welfare Department through the Disaster management section: a) to identify the disaster prone areas and make the information available to the inhabitants of the city b) to conduct preparedness and mitigation program to reduce the loss of lives and properties due to the earthquake c) to make arrangements for security, relief, rehabilitation and temporary settlement of the disaster victims The current need is to set up a Emergency Operation Centre within KMC to control and carry out the emergency operations effectively. KMC has some Ward level Disaster Management Committee (WDMC). These committees are to be set up in all 35 wards of the metropolitan city.
Resources
The city needs human resources to carry on the risk mitigation work. Some financial support is needed from central government or from donor agencies to launch actions like setting up of EOC, microzonation of the city, retrofitting of public and critical facilities etc.
8- PRESENTATION OF RESULTS TO THE COMMUNITY
The project was carried out by the working group of Kathmandu Metropolitan City. The group has consulted relevant departments and sections of KMC in execution of the project work. In addition, the project itself was used as a very strong awareness raising tool to community as well as government authorities for disaster risk management. Two seminars and two talk programs and one workshop were organized in Kathmandu in relation to this project to disseminate the findings and get buy-in of other stakeholders for the proposed
Final Report UNESCO CCT Initiative: Reduction of Natural Disasters in Asia, Latin America, and the Caribbean
solutions. The project kick-off seminar and final result dissemination seminars were attended by UNESCO consultant whose delivery was very well received by the intellectual community and press in Kathmandu (fig. 15). The midterm workshop held in September 2003 was attended by large sector of society including government bodies, universities, lifeline and critical facility operators, professional societies and media. News on the findings of risk assessment was published in most of the national dailies. The government's mouthpiece 'Gorkhapatra daily, wrote an editorial on the issue raised by the work shop on 17th September 2003. Similarly, 6 programs in local community radio "Radio Sagarmatha" are devoted to disseminate the findings of the project to common people and to create demand of mitigation actions from citizen level. Through these activities the project became very much instrumental in raising awareness on the seismic risk and urgent need actions to address the problem among authorities and common people in Kathmandu.
Fig. 15 News on the findings of the UNESCO CCT project in one of the national daily of Nepal
9- CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
UNESCO CCT Initiative on earthquake disaster risk reduction in Kathmandu opened eyes of the authorities of the Kathmandu Metropolitan City as it is first of its kind that city itself conducted study on the risk of it and develop a course of action to mitigate identified problems. In past, there were other several studies on the seismic risk of city, but those studies, if not all, involved the city government as only a part of it. The ownership of the result came out from this project solely lies with city government. This project has another unique feature that it also assessed future risk of the city, which is very effective to formulate the course of actions for future. In conclusion, the major problems as findings of the project from the assessment of urban seismic risk are: 1. The seismic risk the city is very high due to high level of hazard, vulnerable built-up environment and trend of construction and land use planning 2. The seismic risk is being increased day by day
Final Report UNESCO CCT Initiative: Reduction of Natural Disasters in Asia, Latin America, and the Caribbean
3. The city is already about to saturate with vulnerable elements and hence there is very less time remaining to rectify the past mistakes 4. The national economy, social and cultural stability and livelihood of the citizens of the city is at stake because of the seismic risk. The solutions to the identified problems are not still beyond the capability of the city government. But the imperative is : " to act now". Following table summarizes the proposed measures to avert the problems of city from seismic risk.
Table 3: Proposed measures of Kathmandu Metropolitan City to solve the seismic problems
Urgent Measures Medium-term Measures Long- term measures
Seismic Develop programs for seismic Develop integrated plan of Building Code retrofitting of public structures greater city so that disaster Implementatio free development could be n Conduct seismic zonation of the achieved with resource city balance, density
distribution and proper Establishment of Emergency Develop mechanism of incentives infrastructure planning Response and dis-incentives for retrofitting System of existing residential buildings Support surrounding village areas with Develop and Establish mechanism of infrastructure and services put into effect controlling/operating basic utility so that population will be Land-use-plan service (lifelines) by city dispersed. considering government so that effective supply earthquake of services during emergency time Establish linkage of city risk is ensured risk reduction plan with
national development
Promote education and awareness plan(5-year plan) on earthquake safety to community Prepare disaster recovery plan
♦
Final Report UNESCO CCT Initiative: Reduction of Natural Disasters in Asia, Latin America, and the Caribbean
UNESCO CCT Initiative Disaster Risk Reduction in Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean Tijuana, Mexico, City Report
1. CITY OVERVIEW
El área total del Municipio de Tijuana es de 123 584 has (1235 km2) y su población estimada en 2003 es de 1,400 000. Actualmente, la población esta asentada sobre una superficie aproximada de 30 000 has, una cuarta parte del área total. Su crecimiento acelerado hace estimar que al 2025 se habrá casi triplicado, cubriendo alrededor de 90 000 has (incluyendo áreas verdes e inaccesibles). El área estimada de asentamientos humanos, exclusivamente, al 2025 será de 60 000 has.
Por su ubicación geográfica y vecindad con los Estados Unidos, Tijuana presenta ventajas para el desarrollo de actividades comerciales, turísticas, de servicios e industriales, con un gran atractivo para intercambio de actividades económicas en mercados internacionales (proceso de Globalización). Esto convierte al Sector Manufacturero desde 1960 como el de mayor expansión, aún cuando cambios recientes indican una disminución resultado de la crisis de la economía mundial y en particular de Estados Unidos. El establecimiento de empresas recientes pertenece a las ramas de electrónica, metalmecánica, partes médicas y aeroespaciales. Otro sector relevante es el comercio / turístico; considerándose a Tijuana como el sitio de mayores cruces fronterizos en el mundo.
También, la ciudad de Tijuana tiene relevancia económica por su ubicación geográfica, al formar parte de la región fronteriza Tijuana-San Diego y ser el eslabón en el proceso de globalización entre países asiáticos, Estados Unidos y América Latina.
Tijuana está considerada como una de las ocho ciudades de mayor concentración de habitantes en México, y como la quinta Zona metropolitana por su conurbación con San Diego al norte, Rosarito al sur, y Tecate al este. Esto hace suponer una zona metropolitana con una fuerte demanda de suelo para vivienda, infraestructura de servicios básicos y equipamiento urbano. Finalmente, la ciudad depende para su suministro de agua de un acueducto proveniente de Mexicali, a 125 Km. de distancia, que cruza en forma perpendicular todo el sistema de fallas asociadas con la apertura del Golfo de California.
2. PAST IMPACT OF EARTHQUAKES AND OTHER NATURAL DISASTERS
Terremotos: Desde su fundación en 1889, la ciudad de Tijuana no ha experimentado movimientos sísmicos de consideración, con aceleraciones mayores a 0.05 g. Tijuana solo ha experimentado localmente terremotos de magnitudes menores (< 4.0), aún así esta rodeada en todos sus azimuts de fallas geológicas de longitudes capaces de generar terremotos de magnitudes intermedias a mayores (desde 5.5 hasta 8.0). La ‘ausencia sísmica’ de los últimos 70 años, a distancias cercanas, se ha traducido en un bajo nivel de conciencia sísmica por parte de ciudadanía y autoridades, que ha desembocado –por su desconocimiento y falta de percepción- en un crecimiento urbano altamente vulnerable a este fenómeno (Rosquillas A., y L. Mendoza, 2000. Atlas de Riesgos Municipal, versión 1.0)
Lluvias: Otro fenómeno en estas latitudes con períodos de recurrencia relativamente largos (5-10 años), sorprendió a la ciudad en enero 1993, con el paso muy lento de una tormenta sobre la ciudad y altas precipitaciones en corto plazo. En ese año en 15 días, se recibieron precipitaciones pluviales mucho más altas que lo normal en todo el ciclo (15 días = 316 mm vs 180 días = 200 mm), y debido a la topografía, falta de infraestructura y conciencia, el agua y sedimentos se precipitaron hacia las partes bajas. Se evacuaron 7886 personas, 39 de ellas fallecieron. Fueron necesarias 1300 toneladas de alimentos / medicinas, 8 858 unidades
Final Report UNESCO CCT Initiative: Reduction of Natural Disasters in Asia, Latin America, and the Caribbean
de maquinaria para recoger 648 000 toneladas de azolve gastándose $ 4 000 000.00 dólares en trabajos de limpieza (A. Rosquillas y L. Mendoza, 1999. Reporte Final Proyecto RADIUS, caso Tijuana, versión 1.0).
Deslizamientos de masas de terreno: Son desastres de pequeña magnitud cuya frecuencia, de 1993 a la fecha, ha ido aumentando con rapidez debido al incremento del número asentamientos informales sobre laderas inestables. La edad, tipo de depósitos y topografía hacen que el fenómeno se dé por causas naturales en tiempos asociados a época de lluvias. El factor humano y su desarrollo en zonas con pendientes pronunciadas ha acelerado este proceso; en los últimos 5 años el fenómeno esta ocurriendo fuera de época de lluvias. De 1993 a 2003 se tienen documentados 85 casos, el mayor de ellos con un impacto de 80 viviendas totalmente destruidas. Se adelanta que este fenómeno se multiplicara ante la ocurrencia de un terremoto.
3. URBAN GROWTH PROJECTIONS
Por su ubicación geográfica, cercana a la economía más grande del mundo el crecimiento de Tijuana está directamente relacionado al proceso de Globalización comercial mundial. En cuanto a dirección de crecimiento geográfico, no hay opciones, la Ciudad solo puede crecer hacia el Sureste, hacia una zona de montañas de roca competente y valles sedimentarios recientes (de profundidades y propiedades físicas aún desconocidas), que comprende el limite noroeste de la falla Vallecitos-Calabazas (figura siguiente). El crecimiento poblacional previsto al 2025 resultará en un área urbana y servicios de infraestructura aproximadamente iguales a tres veces los valores actuales.
De continuar creciendo la Ciudad de Tijuana con valores similares a los actuales (5% anual) y sin la capacidad de planeación y control que esto requiere, los problemas y situaciones de riesgo se irán incrementando. La experiencia ha demostrado que la invasión de terrenos y asentamientos humanos en zonas geológicamente inestables, aunado a prácticas de autoconstrucción y mínima supervisión ingenieril representan ya en 2003 un problema que debe ser atendido con oportunidad. Situaciones cotidianas de caos por el no previsto aumento de vehículos y personas en determinados sitios ya representan mayor presión sobre servicios públicos y calidad de vida. Los pocos recursos disponibles se destinan a resolver estas situaciones imprevistas.
Final Report UNESCO CCT Initiative: Reduction of Natural Disasters in Asia, Latin America, and the Caribbean
De acuerdo al Programa de Desarrollo Urbano del Centro de Población de Tijuana 2002-2025, algunas proyecciones de crecimiento son:
Población 2003 1’392,932 habitantes. 2010 1’834,263 habitantes. 2015 2’183,832 habitantes. 2020 2’558,701 habitantes. 2025 2’950,133 habitantes.
Tasa de Crecimiento Anual de 4.78% Superficie del Municipio 123,584.08 hectáreas Superficie del Centro de Población 94,073.24 hectáreas Número de Viviendas 2003 341,908 viviendas. 2010 469,262 viviendas 2020 626,398 viviendas 2025 703,935 viviendas.
Actualmente se tiene un crecimiento diario de 2.5 hectáreas. Esto en parte por la gran migración. El Crecimiento Histórico en Tijuana se ha desarrollado de manera radial, incrementándose de manera exponencial en la zona este de la ciudad sobre todo de 1980 a la fecha:
1950-1960 9.74% 1960-1970 7.76% 1970-1980 2.97% 1980-1990 5.06% 1990-1995 5.13% 1995-2000 4.78%
Aptitud de suelo en el Centro de Población de Tijuana (los sitios en cotas mayores a 300 m representan dificultad para suministrarles servicio de agua, Implan 2002)
Aptitud Hectáreas Porcentaje Apto 7 177.50 11.80 Apto-cota > 300 m 10 278.10 16.90 Apto adecuado 6 840.71 11.25 Apto adecuado-cota > 300 m 3 119.97 5.13 Condicionado 7 985.89 13.13 Condicionado-cota > 300 m 13 355.47 21.96 No apto 12 053.17 19.82 60 810.81 100
Fuente: Análisis del Instituto Municipal de Planeación, 2002.
4. IMPLEMENTATION OF THE INITIATIVE IN TIJUANA
Este proyecto de UNESCO fue implementado en Tijuana como continuación de programas de evaluación y reducción del riesgo que la ciudad inició hace varios años en colaboración con organismos, instituciones y
Final Report UNESCO CCT Initiative: Reduction of Natural Disasters in Asia, Latin America, and the Caribbean
expertos tanto locales como regionales e internacionales. A continuación se describen los esfuerzos más relevantes.
RADIUS: El proyecto RADIUS caso Tijuana, iniciado en enero 1998 con el auspicio de la ONU-Década Internacional para la Reducción de Desastres Naturales y el gobierno japonés y la asesoría internacional de la Universidad Stanford y GHI y localmente por CICESE, continúa hasta nuestros días en la forma del Programa RADIUS Tijuana, como parte de los programas de desarrollo municipal. Para la implementación de RADIUS fue necesario crear el Grupo de Trabajo RADIUS (GTR) que continúa reuniéndose mensualmente sin interrupción desde enero 1999. En este proyecto fue creado un escenario de daños sísmicos y un Plan de Acción. El desarrollo y evolución del proyecto y programa esta documentado en: http://radius-tij.cicese.mx.
GESI: En 2000-2001 la ciudad fue nuevamente invitada a participar en el proyecto Global Earthquake Safety Initiative con otras 21 ciudades en el mundo, entre ellas Mexicali, 125 Km. al este de Tijuana. El proyecto involucró mucha participación de la Comunidad a través de entrevistas y talleres de trabajo. Los resultados fueron consensados localmente ante Autoridades y grupos de opinión e internacionalmente en Quito, Ecuador y Kobe, Japón. Esta metodología se intento aplicarla a 10 ciudades de la República Mexicana a través de la propuesta MexESI enviada a las autoridades centrales mexicanas. No fue aprobada, pero se enviará a otras agencias.
UNESCO-CCTI: En 2003, Tijuana ha sido incluida en el proyecto CCTI de UNESCO. El proyecto presentado al GTR (con una asistencia de 92 personas) y luego personalmente al Alcalde de la Ciudad, C. José de Jesús González Reyes; fue aprobado y está siendo implementado en las instituciones de la Ciudad. La Dirección de Protección Civil y el Instituto Municipal de Planeación son las agencias locales encargadas de su desarrollo con la asesoría técnica de CICESE y las instituciones técnicas del GTR. El entrenamiento para el uso de la herramienta computacional para elaboración de escenarios fue ofrecido a todos los interesados, contándose con una asistencia aproximada de 40 personas. Los resultados obtenidos se han presentado en 2 reuniones RADIUS (la 51ª en agosto y la 52ª en septiembre 2003).
5. CURRENT AND FUTURE EARTHQUAKE RISK
Sismicidad: La ciudad de Tijuana en la parte norte de la Península de Baja California está asentada en una zona de alto nivel de actividad sísmica. Esta actividad es el resultado del proceso tectónico de apertura y formación del Golfo de California, lo que se traduce en una separación gradual de la península del resto del Continente. La sismicidad registrada instrumentalmente en los últimos 75 años sitúan a Tijuana en una zona rodeada de epicentros sísmicos en todos sus azimuts, con un bajo nivel de actividad en las áreas debajo de la Ciudad y circunvecinas. (Figura siguiente).
Suelos y topografía: Tijuana esta asentada al final de una gran cuenca hidrológica (446 500 has). La mayoría de sus suelos son el resultado de la erosión en las partes elevadas de esta cuenca, por lo que son de edad relativamente joven (<1 m.a.) y con baja consolidación. Esta ‘suavidad’ de suelos ha creado una topografía controlado por el régimen tectónico presente, en un patrón de cañones y cañadas, perpendiculares al rumbo de fallas regionales. También, estas propiedades de suelos los hacen altamente erosionables, por lo que en época de lluvias, el transporte de sedimentos hacia zonas bajas se vuelve un gran problema, que rebasa la infraestructura y amenaza vidas y propiedades.
Edificaciones: Las edificaciones en Tijuana se rigen por una Ley a nivel estatal y un reglamento a nivel municipal. Estos códigos en su sección técnica son confusos y con parámetros no acordes con el medio físico de la zona. Además, el rápido crecimiento de la Ciudad no permite a la Autoridad un estricto control en su aplicación, por lo que la práctica de autoconstrucción, baja calidad de materiales y no supervisión ingenieril, es práctica común en un gran número de edificaciones.
Final Report UNESCO CCT Initiative: Reduction of Natural Disasters in Asia, Latin America, and the Caribbean
Tijuana’s regional seismological features
Un mayor detalle de los riesgos anteriormente expuestos puede ser consultado en el documento “Diagnóstico de Riesgos Urbanos en el área metropolitana de Tijuana”, editado por la Dirección de Protección Civil Municipal 2001-2002.
Tabla de Edificaciones Actual (tipos RES1 a RES3 representan baja calidad de materiales y poca supervisión ingenieril).
ID Nombre RES1 RES2 RES3 RES4 EDU1 EDU2 MED1 MED2COM IND Sum Area Area (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) 1 PLAYAS 25.00 8.00 3.00 37.00 8.00 2.00 3.00 1.00 7.00 6.00 100.00 2 SAB 30.00 20.00 2.00 15.00 10.00 1.00 3.00 1.00 5.00 13.00 100.00 3 CENTRO 5.00 10.00 10.00 40.00 10.00 3.00 3.00 1.00 16.00 2.00 100.00 4 MESA 15.00 10.00 5.00 30.00 10.00 3.00 3.00 1.00 13.00 10.00 100.00 5 OTAY 15.00 10.00 2.00 20.00 10.00 3.00 3.00 1.00 6.00 30.00 100.00 6 PRESA 15.00 15.00 2.00 40.00 10.00 3.00 3.00 1.00 6.00 5.00 100.00
Tabla de Infraestructura Actual
Infraestructura Total Unidad Definición Length of Local Roads (in km), for the concerned city or target Road1 350 km region. Road2 60 km Length of major roads such as Freeways/ Highways (in km). Bridge 10 Count Number of major Transportation Bridges (road and railway). Number of major Transportation Tunnels, for the concerned city or Tunnels 0 Count target region. Number of major Electrical & Telecommunication transmission Electric1 20 Count towers.
Final Report UNESCO CCT Initiative: Reduction of Natural Disasters in Asia, Latin America, and the Caribbean
Electric2 23 Site Number of Electrical & Telecommunication sub-stations. Length of major Water & Sewage trunk and distribution lines Water1 600 km (km). Water2 79 Site Number of Water & Sewage pumping stations. Water3 6 Site Number of Water & Sewage treatment plants. Reservoir1 1 Count Number of Storage Reservoirs or Dams. Reservoir2 127 Count Number of Terminal Reservoirs or Elevated Storage Tanks. Gasoline 80 Count Number of Gasoline stations.
Usando el programa de computación proporcionado por este proyecto con los datos de la Ciudad proporcionados por diferentes Instituciones, se prepararon varios escenarios. Entre ellos, se describen los más significativos:
a) Variación de azimut y hora del día, con los mismos parámetros de terremoto para 2003, 2025
En la creación de rejillas, se dividió la Ciudad en sus 6 Delegaciones políticas. Se corrieron escenarios a 4 diferentes azimuts: NW, NE, SW, SE, y en dos diferentes horas (2:00 am y 10:00 am) , todos con una distancia epicentral de 5 km de los limites de mancha urbana 2003. Esta ubicación de terremotos se mantuvo para los ejercicios de 2015 y 2025; por ello la mancha urbana de 2025 contiene dentro de sus limites el epicentro del lado SE. Estas ubicaciones, magnitud (6.5), profundidad (entre 5 y 10 km) y distancias son congruentes y esperables dentro del actual régimen tectónico. Todos ellos se ubican sobre fallas mapeadas y con actividad sísmica presente. La ecuación de atenuación utilizada es la de Joyner & Boore, 1981.
Los resultados indican siempre que la hora del día 10:00 am, es la mas negativa para la Ciudad aumentando sus muertos y heridos en un factor alrededor del 10-15% con respecto a la hora nocturna. También se observa que las Delegaciones más cercanas al epicentro consistentemente presentan mayores muertos, heridos y daños y también se observa como las Delegaciones o zonas de la ciudad con mayor porcentaje de suelos suaves presentan mayores valores.
En la comparación de muertos y daños entre 2003 y 2025 los valores mayores ocurren del lado este de la Ciudad (Delegación La Presa), la de mayor extensión, mayor porcentaje de suelos suaves y mayor densidad poblacional, tanto para el terremoto del lado NE como del SE, con valores hasta de 3461 vs. 82 en la Delegación más al oeste. Para los daños a edificaciones se tienen valores al este de 40 664 vs. 5 454 al oeste. Esta comparación 2003-2025 se hizo suponiendo que las tendencias actuales de edificaciones se continuaran al 2025, con porcentajes significativos de tipos RES1, RES2 y RES3 (baja calidad y no ingeniería).
b) Efecto por cambios en la calidad de edificaciones y densidades poblacionales.
Para observar como cambian las estimaciones variando la calidad de edificaciones y densidades poblacionales se corrió el ejercicio que se muestra en la grafica siguiente:
Es un ejercicio con mancha urbana 2025 a las 2:00 am (izquierdo) y 10:00 am (derecho) variando la calidad de edificaciones (aumentando el % de RES4), respetando las densidades poblacionales planificadas por IMPlan vs. manteniendo la calidad actual de edificaciones (como se muestra en el punto 4 Aspectos Técnicos) y no respetando la densidad poblacional, permitiendo se asienten las mayores densidades en la zonas de suelos suaves.
Final Report UNESCO CCT Initiative: Reduction of Natural Disasters in Asia, Latin America, and the Caribbean
Se observa que el mejor caso es respetar las densidades y corregir las edificaciones, enseguida no respetar la densidad pero si corregir las edificaciones, seguido de respetar la densidad planificada pero no corregir edificaciones y finalmente el peor caso, si no se respeta el ejercicio de planificación de densidades poblacionales y además no se corrige la tendencia actual de calidad de edificaciones.
Muertes vs. Población Tijuana al 2025 (en 2 tiempos diferentes) Considerando cambios en densidad poblacional y calidad de edificaciones Mag.= 6.5, Dist.= dentro de mancha urbana 2025, Prof.= 5 km.
10000 9000 8000 7000 DPLAN-GQB 6000 DNOTP-GQB 5000 DPLAN-BQB DEATH 4000 DNOTP-BQB 3000 2000 1000 0 Tijuana (02 am) Tijuana (10 am)
DPLAN-GQB = Densidad de población planeada y buena calidad de edificaciones (Idealizado 2025) DNOTP-GQB = Densidad de población no planeada y buena calidad de edificaciones (idealizado 2025) DPLAN-BQB = Densidad de población planeada y mala calidad de edificaciones (Actual 2003) DNOTP-BQB = Densidad de población no planeada y mala calidad de edificaciones (Actual 2003)
6. MAIN IDENTIFIED PROBLEMS
Como ya se menciono la dirección de crecimiento de la Ciudad esta limitado al sur y sureste y en esa dirección se encuentra el limite noroeste de una falla con un nivel de actividad sísmica reciente que debe ser evaluado. . También el área disponible para crecimiento y asentamiento humano sobre valles sedimentarios es muy limitado, con una extensa parte de áreas con topografía abrupta y roca competente. Esto sugiere una buena planeación y control de densidades de población y calidad de edificaciones. La edificación actual relacionada a estos aspectos debe ser adecuada a esta realidad y su cumplimiento estrictamente vigilado. En el corto y mediano plazo se espera se cubra la parte sur de la actual mancha urbana (suelos suaves) y una porción al sureste (suelos duros). Este crecimiento dejará dentro de la mancha el área del vaso captador de la Presa Rodríguez (para uso en la Ciudad) con los consecuentes riesgos de contaminación.
Otro aspecto de la Ciudad de Tijuana, es que no ha experimentado un terremoto, por lo que no hay conciencia sísmica y esto hace que no se le de la importancia que requiere.
Principales problemas identificados a corto, mediano y largo plazo asociaciones con el crecimiento de la Ciudad y las soluciones propuestas
Final Report UNESCO CCT Initiative: Reduction of Natural Disasters in Asia, Latin America, and the Caribbean
Problema Solución 1. Crecimiento acelerado de población A corto plazo: Control de asentamientos irregulares A mediano plazo: ordenamiento de los asentamientos irregulares. A largo plazo: Hacer modificaciones al programa de desarrollo urbano que incluyan con mas detalle aspectos de riesgo. 2. Construcciones y diseño sísmico A corto plazo: Supervisar las normas de construcción actuales A mediano plazo: establecer y actualizar los códigos sísmicos de construcción e incorporarlos a la normatividad vigente. A largo plazo: aplicación de nueva tecnología en la construcción. 3. Identificar zonas con problemas de suelo A corto plazo: Estudios de microzonificación geológica y sísmica A mediano plazo: Zonificar en base a densidades y características de suelos. A largo plazo: promover nuevos sistemas constructivos en base a esa nueva información. 4. Resistencia y capacidad de servicio de las A corto plazo: Diagnostico y análisis de cada una de líneas vitales. las estructuras y servicios públicos. A mediano plazo: adecuaciones de las infraestructuras de acuerdo a los resultados del diagnóstico. A largo plazo: Construir de manera adecuada para que resista los eventos sísmicos. 5. Tipos de terremoto y su ubicación. - A corto plazo: Estudio de microzonificación para la toma de decisiones - A mediano plazo: Mayor control en la construcción donde existan fallas o lugares de alto riesgo. - A largo plazo: Modificaciones y redirigir el crecimiento de la población y el uso de suelos. 6. Falta de conciencia sísmica - A corto plazo: Incorporar un programa en el sector educativo para crear conciencia sísmica. - A mediano plazo: Incorpora programas en el sector gobierno e iniciativa privada. - A largo plazo: Incorporar programas en medios masivos de comunicación.
7. PROPOSED SOLUTIONS
El crecimiento acelerado que experimenta actualmente Tijuana (2.5 has / día) se prevé continúe y aumente para los siguientes 20 años. Si no se planifica y vigila, los riesgos crecerán en grandes proporciones, particularmente el riesgo sísmico.
Los resultados del análisis en este proyecto CCTI muestran que la mejor opción para Tijuana en aspectos de reducción del riesgo sísmico a través de Planificación son:
Final Report UNESCO CCT Initiative: Reduction of Natural Disasters in Asia, Latin America, and the Caribbean
a) Cambiar la tendencia actual de calidad de edificaciones b) Aumentar el conocimiento de su medio físico c) Actualizar y vigilar sus códigos de construcción d) Considerar el efecto sísmico en las Normas de su infraestructura e) Planificar con fundamentos técnicos el uso de Suelo y Densidad poblacional f) Corregir las obras civiles identificadas con vulnerabilidad sísmica g) Difundir programas de concientización sísmica desde nivel escuelas hasta toda la ciudadanía.
8. PRESENTATION OF RESULTS TO THE COMMUNITY
El proyecto primeramente fue presentado a la Ciudad en la 48 Reunión del Grupo RADIUS-Tijuana del mes de mayo 2003, siendo bien recibido por los 92 representantes de instituciones del sector publico y privado que asistieron. Inmediatamente después de la reunión inaugural, se implementó una sesión de entrenamiento para el personal interesado en las instalaciones del Instituto Municipal de Plantación (IMPlan). El desarrollo y estimaciones de riesgo presente y futuro fue presentado y consensado en las reuniones mensuales de RADIUS de agosto y septiembre 2003 (ver minutas reuniones mayo a septiembre 2003 en http://radius-tij.cicese.mx).
El documento logrado en estas reuniones mensuales fue presentado en la reunión de París. En el mes de noviembre se inició el proyecto con las escuelas. Los resultados finales fueron presentados en el Simposio Internacional en la ciudad de Tijuana, los días 19 y 20 de enero de 2004.
9. CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
CONCLUSIONES.
• Dirección de crecimiento urbano limitado (al Sureste) • Crecimiento urbano sobre una falla sísmicamente activa y valles sedimentarios de propiedades físicas desconocidas • Terremotos a distancias cercanas y en todas direcciones • Bajo nivel de conciencia sísmica • Crecimiento acelerado y con limitada capacidad de supervisión • Legislación no adecuada a este crecimiento
RECOMENDACIONES
• Medidas de prevención factibles y viables I. Edificaciones de buena calidad (probar nuevas técnicas) II. Vigilancia y actualización de códigos de construcción (entrenar cuadros técnicos) III. Estudios de Sitio (Microzonación geológica y sísmica de la Ciudad) IV. Control del crecimiento de densidad poblacional V. Aumentar la conciencia sísmica ciudadana VI. Implementar Programas Educativos • Compromiso de los líderes de la Comunidad • Mantener la comunicación y apoyo entre ONU, UNESCO, Harvard, Stanford, GHI, e instituciones científicas locales en este tipo de proyectos.
Final Report UNESCO CCT Initiative: Reduction of Natural Disasters in Asia, Latin America, and the Caribbean
UNESCO CCT Initiative Disaster Risk Reduction in Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean Dehradun, India, City Report
Note from the Program Coordinator: Due to regulations of the Indian National System regarding local (city) projects, the UNESCO CCT initiative could not be implemented in Dehradun. The following report was prepared for and presented at the initiative’s mid-term meeting in Paris, when the project organizers still hoped that the legal issues would be solved on time to implement the project in Dehradun. That did not happen, unfortunately.
1. CITY OVERVIEW
The city of Dehradun in the Shivalik foothills has been made the provisional capital of the new state. Dehradun is situated at the Himalayan foothills in the fertile Doon Valley. The valley is well known for its salubrious climate and natural beauty. It is due to this reason; Dehradun has been one of the favorite residential cities. It is also an important educational center of the country. Some of the best public schools and convents are located here. The Indian Military Academy, The Forest Research Institute, the Oil and Natural Gas Commission and many more offices of Central and State Govt. are also situated here.
Salient features of the Dehradun City
City Dehradun District Dehradun Area 67 sq. km (municipal limits) Latitude 30o 19’ N Longitude 78o 20’ E Altitude 640 m above sea level Population 447,808 (2001 census) Rainy Season June- September Connectivity Nearest Airport : Jolly Grant Airport (24 kms) Railway Station: Dehradun Road: Delhi( 255km), Haridwar (57 km), Saharanpur (61 km), Chakrata (83 km), Mussoorie (31 km) and Lucknow ( 545 km) Potentials State capital, District and Tehsil headquarter of Uttaranchal state Important tourist destination like Sahastradhara (14 km), Robers cave ( 8 km), Lakshman Sidh ( 12 km), Tapkeshwar temple (6 km), Tapovan (6km), Dak Pattar (45 km), Lacchiwala (24 km) , Rajaji National park, Malsi Deer park, Kalsi etc. Head quarter of many national institute and organization like Forest Research Institute, ONGC (Oil and Natural Gas Commission), Survey of India, and Institute of Petroleum, IMA (Indian Military Academy), RIMC (Rashtriya Indian Military College), LBSNAA (Lal Bahadur Shastri National Academy of Administration) etc. Rich in water and forest reserves Salubrious climate as nestled in a wide and thickly forested valley of the Shivalik ranges. Constraints Topographic and Physiographic constraints result in uneven development
Final Report UNESCO CCT Initiative: Reduction of Natural Disasters in Asia, Latin America, and the Caribbean
SOCIO ECONOMIC CHARACTERISTICS
Population Growth
Dehradun is the largest city among cities of Uttaranchal based on the size of the population. According to 1981 Census of India, the town recorded the total population of 211, 838, which grew to 270,159 persons in 1991 at the rate of 27.53 percent. The total population has further increased to approximately 447,808 by the year 2001 (as per Census 2001) with a decadal growth rate of about 66 percent, which is quite high. The projected population for 2011 AD is assumed to rise up to above 800,000 persons.
Though, historically, city has shown an erratic growth pattern but growth rate for past few decades has been constant except for the previous decade. The high growth rate for the last decade is on account of large-scale migration after the formation of state capital. The town covers an area of about 67 sq. km. with a population density of more than 6684 persons per sq. km.
Occupational Structure
The total number of workers in town as per 1991 census was 76,564, which work out to be 28.34 percent of the total population. The distribution of workers in broad three sectors reveals that this city is predominantly a service center with 74.91 percent of its total workers engaged in tertiary sector, 21.14 percent in secondary sector, whereas 3.95 percent earn their livelihood from occupations in primary sector.
Slums
About 79 slums have been identified as per the survey conducted by Urban Development Agency in 1996. About 1.20 lakh population of Dehradun resides in slums of Dehradun. The quality of life in slums is appalling with little emphasis on health, hygiene and sanitation.
Economic Aspects
The city of Dehradun is a gateway to the Hill region of Uttaranchal. The economic development of hilly region of Uttaranchal is closely associated with the development of this city. The mainstay of the city is its income from tourism, forest wealth and rich water resources.
2. IMPACT OF PAST DISASTERS (EARTHQUAKES AND OTHER HAZARDS)
The Uttaranchal Himalayas have a well known and recorded history where large magnitude earthquakes strike frequently. The entire area is under Zones IV and V of the Seismic Zone Map of India, with very high seismic vulnerability. This area has already faced 36 major earthquakes (m > 5.0 on Richter Scale) in the last one and a half century. During the last century, the region has had 12 earthquakes of magnitude greater than 6.0 on the Richter Scale.
Major Earthquakes of Uttaranchal
Sr. No Date Intensity Place 1 1 September 1803 9.0 Badrinath 2 1809 9.0 Garhwal 3 26 May 1816 7.0 Gangotri 4 25 July 1869 6.0 Nainital 5 28 October 1916 7.5 Dharchula
Final Report UNESCO CCT Initiative: Reduction of Natural Disasters in Asia, Latin America, and the Caribbean
6 28 October 1937 8.0 Dehradun 7 27 July 1966 6.3 Kapkot, Dharchula 8 28 August 1968 7.0 Dharchula 9 29 July 1980 6.5 Dharchula 10 20 October 1991 6.6 Uttarkashi 11 29 March 1999 6.8 Chamoli
Major Landslides in Uttaranchal
Sr. No Disaster Location Year Life Claimed 1 Gudiya Tal 1868 73 2 Nainital 1880 151 3 Birehi River 1893 4 Namtal 1898 27 5 Alaknanda 1970 70 6 Khaila village 1977 7 Bhagirathi 1978 25 8 Mandakini 1979 50 9 Neelkanth 1990 >100 10 Dewar Khadora 1991 25 11 Piderghati 1991,92,93 59 12 Ookhimath and Malpa 1998 326
3. THE PROJECT IN DEHRADUN CITY
There has not been much work done in this regard previously. The Govt. of India has established a Disaster Management and Mitigation Centre (DMMC) under the state operations. The center is active in carrying various disaster management activities like awareness generation, training seminars etc.
State level activity has already been initiated by the DMMC, Dehradun. However, city specific solutions are needed and should be initiated in Dehradun.
The Mussoorie Dehradun Development Authority is very keen to initiate the UNESCO project so that the city takes the appropriate disaster risk reduction and mitigation measures to benefit and save human lives.
Final Report UNESCO CCT Initiative: Reduction of Natural Disasters in Asia, Latin America, and the Caribbean
Part II
The UNESCO Schools Project
An Educational Component of the
UNESCO Cross-Cutting Theme Initiative: Reduction of Natural Disasters in Asia, Latin America, and the Caribbean
Final Report UNESCO CCT Initiative: Reduction of Natural Disasters in Asia, Latin America, and the Caribbean
Outline of the UNESCO Schools Project
BACKGROUND
UNESCO’s Cross-Cutting Theme (CCT) Initiative: Reduction of Natural Disasters in Asia, Latin America, and the Caribbean is an international, multi-disciplinary project that aims to preserve sustainable development and reduce poverty through the reduction of the impact of natural disasters, and it aims to do so by incorporating risk management as an integral part of public policy as well as city development plans and processes. The pilot project was implemented in close collaboration with local authorities, experts, and institutions in the following four cities: Tijuana in Mexico, Antofagasta in Chile, Kathmandu in Nepal, and Dehradun in India.
In addition to analyzing and improving development plans in the participant cities to keep the risk associated with fast urban growth under control, the UNESCO CCT Initiative implemented demonstration projects with schools in three of these four cities. Two types of demonstration projects utilizing two different educational tools were implemented. The first utilized the Riskland educational board game developed by UNICEF- ISDR and was implemented at the primary school level. The second utilized the Building for the Big One curriculum developed by the San Jose Tech Museum of Innovation and was implemented with students at the junior high and high school level.
OBJECTIVES
The aim of these demonstration projects was two-fold. In the short-term, the objective was to promote the introduction of risk reduction and management in the educational system of the participating cities, and, in this way, contribute to the long-term objective of creating of a culture of prevention. Both objectives were set with the necessary consequential goal of ensuring the sustainability of risk reduction programs.
METHODOLOGY
Riskland is an educational board game developed by UNICEF-ISDR that was used in The Schools Project to teach elementary school-aged children how to prepare for and react during and after a disaster.
The Building for The Big One exercise is part of the Design Challenge Curriculum of The San Jose Tech Museum of Innovation (http://www.thetech.org/learning/challenge/design/) and was used to encourage junior high and high school students to build and test model structures in order to learn about the importance of proper construction, the need to consider characteristics of soils being constructed on, and the value of prevention and preparedness in reducing human and material losses caused by earthquakes.
Fig. 1. English and Spanish versions of the Riskland Fig. 2. Nepali version of Riskland board game board game
Final Report UNESCO CCT Initiative: Reduction of Natural Disasters in Asia, Latin America, and the Caribbean
Fig. 3. Kathmandu students build their model Fig. 4. San Jose students test their model structures structures
PARTICIPANTS
Riskland. The Spanish version of the Riskland educational board game was implemented at the elementary school level in 3 pilot schools in Antofagasta, Chile. In Kathmandu, the Riskland board game was translated into Nepali and implemented in several primary schools in the valley.
Building for the Big One. The Building for the Big One exercise was implemented in the cities of Antofagasta, Kathmandu, and Tijuana. In Kathmandu, the demonstration project was implemented in the Paropakar Adarsha Higher Secondary School and the Saraswati Secondary School. In Antofagasta, the project was implemented in the schools Liceos A-26 and B-13. In Tijuana, it was implemented in the municipal school named Xicotencatl Leyva Alemán. In addition, students from the high school Downtown College Prep in San Jose, California.
The project was carried out with the assistance of the local city representatives and school officials, under the guidance of the project coordinators.
Fig. 5. School children in Antofagasta play Riskland with Fig. 6. More children in Antofagasta play Riskland city representative Gloria Paredes
Final Report UNESCO CCT Initiative: Reduction of Natural Disasters in Asia, Latin America, and the Caribbean
Fig. 7. Project Coordinator Carlos Villacís (center) Fig. 8. Tijuana Student participants that were poses with students from one participating selected to attend the Final Symposium in San Jose, high school in Antofagasta, Chile California (pictured here with their teacher)
Fig. 9. Students from Antofagasta accept cultural Fig. 10. Nepali delegation members, Mr. Ram exchange gift from Kathmandu students Humagai, Mr. Bishnu Pandey, and students Sony during the symposium in Tijuana Maharjan and Susan Munikar, pictured with UNESCO Project Assistant Cynthia Cardona
INTERNET GROUP
Besides working in their own schools, students from each of the participating cities communicated and interacted with each other and students of Downtown College Prep through an internet discussion group that was created exclusively for the project. Through this interaction, students learned not only about the importance of disaster prevention, but also about the culture and way of life of their peers in other cities. Recent earthquakes in California and Iran also motivated discussion and facilitated the understanding of seismic disasters.
FINAL SYMPOSIUM
In association with the Secretariat of the United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction and the Municipality of Tijuana, B.C., Mexico, UNESCO convened a final symposium to review the results of this initiative in Tijuana, Mexico and San Jose, California on January 19-22, 2004. The purpose of the meeting
Final Report UNESCO CCT Initiative: Reduction of Natural Disasters in Asia, Latin America, and the Caribbean
was to allow city representatives to report on the results of the project and share experiences, and to provide a forum for project participants and the broader international community to draw lessons from the project, generate ideas for potential collaboration opportunities and prepare for a potential longer-term initiative. Additionally, school children from the participating cities were able to present the results of the demonstration projects implemented to promote the creation of a culture of prevention.
On Wednesday, January 21, students from the participating cities met at the Tech Museum of Innovation to present the results of their work. For many of the participating students, this was their first trip outside of their countries. At the Final Symposium events in San Jose, held at the San Jose Tech Museum of Innovation and the participating California school Downtown College Prep, the participating students were able to meet each other in person for the first time. In addition, the students and other meeting participants -- such as educators, scientists, and planning officials – were able to discuss and offer recommendations on effective ways to promote education around disaster prevention and mitigation.
Fig. 11. Project participants listen to student Fig. 12. International project participants were presentations at the San Jose Tech warmly greeted during a reception at Downtown Museum of Innovation College Prep in San Jose, California
FUTURE EFFORTS
Besides the concrete recommendations that were presented and discussed of urban planning measures to reduce the earthquake risk in the participating cities, the Final Symposium event produced specific recommendations on ways to incorporate risk reduction considerations into the city development plans and on necessary actions to establish a culture of prevention and long-term planning, especially in developing countries.
Recommendations
In order to reach the overall vision of creating a safe society in terms of prevention, the group recommended the implementation of planning initiatives for use by and planning of societies through the following recommended measures:
• Establishing educational programs for broad dissemination via the media • Requiring that city political authorities take an introductory course on civil protection • Requiring that other public officials (such as public planning and finance ministers) be sensitized to the issues of prevention • Better defining the roles of city officials in charge of establishing city rules, norms, and laws. Creating permanent plans for them and developing courses to increase their awareness and capacity around areas of prevention
Final Report UNESCO CCT Initiative: Reduction of Natural Disasters in Asia, Latin America, and the Caribbean
• Enforcing disaster safety laws, rules, codes, and planning measures and making sure the general public is informed about their existence • Further developing maps outlining the risks of the city and making sure these are disseminated to the public
In order to achieve the vision of a true culture of prevention, the group recommended the implementation of several initiatives in order to build a concept of prevention. Their aim would be to do so in a manner such that, in 20 years, tangible results could begin to be seen, and that, in 10 years, the public’s mentality will have changed to a reflect a culture of prevention at all levels. Specific recommendations included:
• Creating programs of public awareness directed at public officials and the general public • Incorporating themes of prevention as an integral part of the official education curriculum • Designing formal and informal educational programs to teach the topic of prevention • Training and teaching the media regarding topics of prevention
Student Recommendations
In what were perhaps some of the most memorable words said during the Final Symposium, Kathmandu student Sony Maharjan reiterated the need to raise awareness around disasters among all levels of the population, and she pleaded for the rights of students like her to study in safe school buildings (see Fig. 13).
Fig. 13. Excerpt from inspirational speech written by Kathmandu student Sony Maharjan
PROJECT REPORTING
Since the results of the Schools Project were presented at the Final Symposium, the work of the students has been recognized at local, regional and international levels. An example of local level reporting is that the Kathmandu students have been interviewed by Nepali radio and television programs, further disseminating
Final Report UNESCO CCT Initiative: Reduction of Natural Disasters in Asia, Latin America, and the Caribbean
their experiences to the general public (see Kathmandu report for more details). Another example of the recognition the Schools Project has received can be seen in an article written in the Tech Times, the electronic newsletter of the San Jose Tech Museum of Innovation. Part of this article is shown below and can also be found at following link: http://www.thetech.org/learning/challenge/design/unesco.cfm
Fig. 14. An article on the Schools Project included in The Tech Museum of Innovation’s website and newsletter
PROJECT CONTACT INFORMATION
Dr. Carlos Villacís, Ph.D. and M.P.A. Project Coordinator UNESCO/ISDR Consultant Tel: (1-650) 967-3667 Fax: (1-253) 679-8397 E-mail: [email protected] [email protected]
Ms. Cynthia Cardona, M.S. Project Assistant UNESCO Consultant Tel: (1- 408) 251-4042 E-mail: [email protected]
Mr. Francisco Valdiosera, M.A. Teacher Downtown College Prep Tel (1-408) 251-4042 E-mail: [email protected]
Final Report UNESCO CCT Initiative: Reduction of Natural Disasters in Asia, Latin America, and the Caribbean
The UNESCO Schools Project An Educational Component of the Cross-Cutting Theme Initiative: Reduction of Natural Disasters in Asia, Latin America, and the Caribbean
Individual City Reports
Prepared by the city representatives of
Antofagasta, Chile Kathmandu, Nepal Tijuana, Mexico
Final Report UNESCO CCT Initiative: Reduction of Natural Disasters in Asia, Latin America, and the Caribbean
UNESCO CCT Initiative Disaster Risk Reduction in Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean The Schools Project in Antofagasta, Chile
INTRODUCTION
Ignorance is one of the main problems of today’s society, especially when dealing with specific topics that have been postponed for many years. The Latin American society, in general, and the Chilean society specifically are no exceptions. These act during and after an emergency, when human, economic and structural losses have already occurred. There is no awareness around prevention.
Preventing a disaster is not easy, let alone when there is lack of information or interest. Our memory is not good and we build in areas of risk until alluvions, overflowing rivers or earthquakes remind us how vulnerable human beings are. However, some situations allow for the generation and increase of awareness and, although the expected results are long-term in nature, it is possible to face problems more successfully.
Children have the ability to be curious, be creative, and be fascinated by science, technology, books and everything they can understand as they grow up. Thus, this is the right time to work efficiently with children; children who are growing up and some day will make decisions for their family and community.
The main objective in carrying out Antofagasta Riskland and Building for the Big one (also called School Academies for Earth Sciences) is to teach concepts and foster debate on natural disasters among children and how to avoid losses so as to raise their interest to learn more about risk reduction, and, at the same time, to contribute to an increase their and their families’ quality of life, by learning about disasters that originate from natural phenomena. This situation has allowed for debates to be held among schools participating in the programs.
Teaching children about these topics and inviting them to take part in activities and games encourages families to come to school and work with them. In this way, it is possible for both children and adults to learn about and collaborate in the process. Children who participated in the Building for the Big One exercise integrated their families into the implementation of the project.
Alter carrying out the programs, students, teachers and parents became more involved in learning about natural disasters and how to reduce their impact. Awareness was increased. Now, the work should be permanent. The continuation of efforts must lead to creativity and consistency in order to spark debate and awareness, such that this will lead to the increase and strengthening of knowledge and critical analysis.
RISKLAND
Riskland is a project of the UN Secretariat of the International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (ISDR), funded by UNICEF, with the objective of helping 8-12 year-old children learn about natural and man-made disasters. The game, applied in Central American schools as part of their curriculum, was developed as a pilot project in 4 municipal schools in Antofagasta, Chile in 2003.
The familiarity of the people of Antofagasta with earthquakes and the safety measures that should be taken before and during their occurrence are acceptable, but this is not the case with floods, landslides and other phenomena.
Final Report UNESCO CCT Initiative: Reduction of Natural Disasters in Asia, Latin America, and the Caribbean
This work is focused on the knowledge Antofagasta children have about disasters and how familiar they are with them. A second objective was to learn about their experience with the disasters that took place in the 1990s – a 1991 alluvion and 1995 earthquake - what the children learned and whether they could identify them.
Thus, a pilot application of the game “Riskland” was implemented in four city schools -- D-86, D-129, F-60 and F-94 – among children from 9-13 years of age.
Fig.1 Third-grade pupils at F-95 school play “Riskland” in Antofagasta, Chile. This school was among the first three schools where the pilot program was done in July-August 2003. Later, other schools followed. This is one of the schools with the highest risk index.
Only “Riskland” was used in this experiment and not all of the intervention methodology supporting it since the main objective was to assess the game’s pertinence, both in content and visual impact. Additionally, an open-ended questionnaire was given. Questions asked were the following: What is a disaster? What disasters can occur in Antofagasta? Can disasters be prevented? What should we do during a disaster to protect ourselves? What people or institutions in the community can help after a disaster?
Schools that would participate in the program were identified according to geographical location and number of students they housed. Also, students’ socioeconomic and cultural levels were considered (most students belonging to middle and low socio-economic levels). Another consideration was whether school damage had occurred during the 1991 alluvion and 1995 earthquake.
The Game
Boys and girls enjoyed the game in general and it satisfactorily assessed their knowledge. Their answers showed a strong influence of popular beliefs in relation to prevention and safety behavior when facing
Final Report UNESCO CCT Initiative: Reduction of Natural Disasters in Asia, Latin America, and the Caribbean
potentially disastrous events, and their answers, in some cases, were not technically feasible. For example, on several occasions, the children mentioned a “deluge” as a common disaster, causing surprise in the assessment team.
Conclusion
In descriptive terms, children of the different schools consider disasters as a generalized disorder, associating it with the destruction of homes and even of the city. Water, sea, and air contamination are also associated with disasters in the children’s minds, as well as pollution by trash, which could be considered as an expression of disorder or dirtiness.
Disasters most often mentioned by the children were tsunamis, earthquakes and alluvions, in this same order, thus reflecting the concerns of the imagination of the collective community. Furthermore, these concerns do not necessarily coincide with the real damage these events could cause. In fact, when their possible effects are considered, the order of disasters is the opposite to that provided by children.
On the other hand, some safety practices are supported more on popular culture than on objective data. Indeed, in the case of tsunamis, the flood and safety areas and their associated borders are not considered (or are unknown), otherwise escaping toward the hills would not be stated (a behavior that the whole community displays when facing any small or big earthquake in the city). In relation to small earthquakes, hiding under a table and standing in an archway or doorway are preferably cited, the latter being independent from the material quality of the house. With respect to alluvions, there is no clear reference to safety measures.
To respond to this situation, the need to implement the whole Riskland program arises as a first step to educate children with respect to disaster prevention. Furthermore, if children are assumed to repeat the lessons they hear from their parents or other adults, the conclusion is that adults also do not know the proper safety measures that should be implemented when facing these events.
This experience was an interesting one for the community to take part in. From the results of the first stage, it was evident that children not only wanted to take the game home to continue playing and learning, but that other nearby communities, such as Sierra Gorda, also wanted to participate in a similar project.
BUILDING FOR THE BIG ONE:
The opportunity to exchange knowledge and experience on scientific projects presented itself as a new option for Antofagasta students in implementing the Building for the Big One project, also known as School Academies for Earth Sciences.
The initial proposal was focused on the construction of a shake table and structures based on how soil and structures behave in an earthquake. These allowed students from two high schools (A-26 and B-13) to start a research process that ended in the construction and testing of structures, lessons which were shared with students from San Jose, California.
The schools selected for the program have scientific academies and their students belong are of middle and low socioeconomic backgrounds. With the structures they built, lessons on the behavior of infill soil and its compaction were derived, together with lessons about tsunami, earthquake and liquefaction phenomena.
Discussion and suggestions regarding the project took place in both high schools. The experience enabled them to exchange knowledge and generate a debate on each of the initiatives, a situation that not only fostered friendship among students, but also the reformulation of projects according to classmates’ recommendations.
Final Report UNESCO CCT Initiative: Reduction of Natural Disasters in Asia, Latin America, and the Caribbean
The next step was to interact with San Jose students through the internet group created for this purpose: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/schools_project
The process was successful and encouraged 13-18-year-old students to continue learning about the topics, and it encouraged teachers and municipal educational authorities to continue the process in other high schools in the city in March of 2004.
Among the experiences reported by the students themselves, it is possible to highlight the stated importance of developing and increasing awareness on risk reduction and improving life quality by developing and applying greater knowledge about disasters so as to lower the vulnerability levels of housing and the environment and, therefore, to build a better future.
Fig. 2 A-26 and B-13 High school students in Antofagasta in a meeting with the UNESCO consultant for the project, Dr. Carlos Villacís
During the local CCT-RADIUS II seminar, Jonathan Aguirre, 17, a second-year student at A-26 high school said: “I want to learn this to teach my children when I become a father.” This statement gives evidence that creating awareness is the key to effectively reducing risk.
Alter participating in the Tijuana Symposium and the meeting in San Jose (CA), the commitment of the students representing Antofagasta and their own schools is to continue the Building for the Big One exercise and keep in touch with students from San Jose and other countries in order to learn from their experience, as they did, for example, from the January earthquake in California.
Implementation
To implement the project, the selected schools were visited, and presentations on earthquakes and structure behavior were made in order to share information with students and answer their questions; this instance was also used for having a discussion around the projects to be implemented.
One of the objectives to be reached was raising the interest of students about the topic. This took place as the projects of each group were developed and supervised, since the only incentive to work was competition with the other school. This work helped raise the interest of other students to take part in the experiment. The
Final Report UNESCO CCT Initiative: Reduction of Natural Disasters in Asia, Latin America, and the Caribbean
participating students learned a lot and taught their classmates. Finally, their words reflect their learning and commitment to this task.
In Chile, students were on summer vacation from November until March. This fact somewhat hindered communication between students of local high schools and students from other cities that are part of the international group. Nevertheless, the second phase of the project is being prepared at the city level, so as to make this activity permanent and share it with other schools through the internet and the individual and group experiences of students themselves.
Symposium
Students selected to represent Antofagasta and their own schools presented their projects in a local exhibition and, after being chosen to attend the international symposium, they were prepared for their trip by professionals from the Universidad Catolica del Norte and the Antofagasta City Hall. They also participated in more extensive meetings and presentations held for them. From being listeners, they turned into presenters. But, undoubtedly, their experience and the realization of a dream were the best conclusion.
The project not only exacerbated their curiosity and knowledge, but it also enabled them to develop themselves in other areas, that is, their interest and their desire to help others led them to think that they will study in a university. Jonathan, 17, wants to be a geologist because he would like to help cities to more effectively plan and build according to the types of soils present, and David, 14, would like to be a structural engineer or an architect to build better houses.
Now, they are leaders in their high schools and are eager to start working with the technical team of the project, their classmates and teachers in March. There was a change in their attitude, especially Jonathan, who had repeatedly said that he was not very interested in the topic until he saw how his classmates, through their creativity and ingeniousness, simulated their own earthquakes
The Future
To educate is not an easy challenge to take on; on the contrary, it is one of the hardest tasks. However, by looking at results obtained through this project, it is impossible to stop a program that encourages so much student participation and interest and which effectively contributes to disaster impact reduction with only a change in attitude.
From March on, the Antofagasta Municipal Social Development Corporation, together with Universidad Catolica del Norte, will permanently work with the program in order to increase the opportunities to learn for children, parents and teachers.
Contacto: [email protected] [email protected] [email protected]
Final Report UNESCO CCT Initiative: Reduction of Natural Disasters in Asia, Latin America, and the Caribbean
UNESCO CCT Initiative Disaster Risk Reduction in Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean The Schools Project in Kathmandu, Nepal
1. INTRODUCTION
Kathmandu Metropolitan City (KMC) implemented a project on Earthquake Risk Reduction in Kathmandu under the 'UNESCO CCT Initiative: Disaster Risk Reduction in Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean' in June 2003-Janaury 2004 with technical assistance from the National Society for Earthquake Technology-Nepal (NSET). The project is basically an assessment of seismic risk and the development of a plan to reduce the current and future risk of the city. As a demonstration case for long-term mitigation, the project has risk reduction component through school education called the ‘The Schools Project.’ The Schools Project has the objective of introducing disaster risk reduction in school education in order to initiate a culture of prevention among future generations. The pilot project was implemented in two schools of Kathmandu: Paropakar Adarsha Higher Secondary School in Bhimsensthan and Saraswati Secondary School in Thecho, Lalitpur. The KMC, NSET and the schools implemented the education project with the guidance of Dr. Carlos Villacis, UNESCO Project Coordinator, and Mr. Francisco Valdiosera, Teacher of Downtown College Prep of San Jose, California, USA. The project was built upon the disaster risk awareness initiatives of KMC and the School Earthquake Safety Program (SESP), one of the strong programs of NSET in assisting communities in managing seismic risk through schools.
2. PROJECT IMPLEMENTATION
The participating schools were selected using three criteria: 1) the school should have interest in environmental and disaster issues and preferably have some on-going initiatives in these fields, 2) the school should be a public school, and 3) the two schools should be from both core and fringe areas of Kathmandu. The Saraswati School, located in southern village of Kathmandu, is implementing the SESP program with the participation of students of their school’s Earthquake Safety Club. The Paropakar Adarsha Higher Secondary School, which promotes schooling for orphans, has been conducting awareness programs among students their school’s Nature Club. The project was kicked-off with interactions among KMC staff, NSET professionals, school principals, and teachers and students from the clubs in each school separately. The first meetings in each school selected a team of 6-7 students from clubs; these students were selected because they are influential to others and interested in carrying out the hands-on exercises to understand the basics of earthquake resistant structures and learning of values of prevention and preparedness. The student teams carried out several exercises of small-scale building model construction and testing for simulated vibration, and they learned to play disaster education games under the guidance of KMC staff, NSET engineers and teachers.
Project Activities
Under the project, different activities were carried out, primarily, by students from two schools. The major activities were:
The “Building for the Big One” exercise
The students carried out testing of different models of buildings under simulated vibration to understand the response of building structures under earthquake shaking. They did the exercise of 'Building for the Big One' challenge, developed by Tech Museum of Innovation of San Jose, California. The students themselves
Final Report UNESCO CCT Initiative: Reduction of Natural Disasters in Asia, Latin America, and the Caribbean
prepared shaker boards by trial and error using pieces of wood, nails, and marbles. The shaker boards they developed generated horizontal shaking (using manual intervention) to the small models placed upon them. Students preparing the shaker boards and model buildings at their school are shown in Figure 1. Upon completion of the shaker boards, they tried with different materials to simulate the different soil types upon which buildings rest. They used chocolate cream to simulate alluvium soft clay of Kathmandu and rice and maize grit with water to simulate the liquefiable sand prevailing in Kathmandu’s riverbanks. With popsicle sticks, spoons, and glue, they fabricated different buildings with a variety of configurations and details to test under different simulated soil conditions. Upon the tests, the innovative students came up with these engineering results:
• Frame structures need bracing both in horizontal and vertical planes to resist shaking over soft clay • Foundation of pillars should be linked with each other to withstand shaking in sandy soil with water
Figure 2 shows a glimpse of the tests they carried out.
Fig.1 - Students preparing shaker board and Fig. 2 - Testing building skeleton model using building model self-made shaker board
Students carried out a series of tests under different variables: soil conditions, structural systems and construction details. Their findings with regards to the best model for Kathmandu are presented as shown in Figure 3.
Fig. 3 - Students showing their building models after testing them
Final Report UNESCO CCT Initiative: Reduction of Natural Disasters in Asia, Latin America, and the Caribbean
Riskland game
NSET translated Riskland, a game for children to learn disaster preparedness themes developed by International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (ISDR) and UNICEF, into Nepali with the adaptation of the Nepali environment and culture in the board game as well. The Nepali Riskland was tested among those students for learning about disaster by playing. It was found that the students are very much receptive to the game. Now the copies of the Nepali Riskland are being distributed to schools under the SESP program.
Dissemination of students work in schools and public
The 'Building for the Big One' challenge was demonstrated in the participating students' schools in front of other students, teachers, and parents. Also, the student teams demonstrated their work in a public exhibition during Earthquake Safety Day 2004 during January 16-19, 2004 in Kathmandu. Their work was very well received by students and parents. During the exhibition, they also taught their colleagues from different schools how to play Riskland.
Sharing ideas with international project participants
The project work was shared with other participating cities and international community. The practical idea of the 'Building for Big One' test was obtained from the experience of the Antofogasta team and Downtown College Prep of San Jose, California. The internet group messages received regularly from Dr. Carlos Villacis were discussed among students and comments on them were shared with other students and teacher of participating cities through web-based communications.
At final stage of the project, two students, one from each school, participated in the International Symposium held in Tijuana, Mexico and San Jose, California, U.S. In those meeting, students from Kathmandu shared their work and opinions regarding school children and earthquake safety. The students were well received by the international audience for their work and vision.
3. FOLLOW-UP AND SUSTAINABILITY OF THE INITIATIVE
NSET is planning to extend the 'Building for the Big One' exercise to NSET's SESP schools and others in the future. It will be integrated into KMC's awareness program as well. The students who participated in this exercise have already started teaching their colleagues in their schools and outside. KMC and NSET will encourage and support them to multiply the imitative. Similarly, NSET is planning to publish 5000 Riskland game boards and use them as training material for SESP, which is now spread all over the country.
Further, NSET has planned to construct a Community Earthquake Safety Learning Centre, the target beneficiaries of which will be primarily students. At the Centre, they will learn about earthquake safety using audiovisual games, photographs, small testing facilities, and much more. Obviously, the centre will have Riskland and ‘Building for the Big One’ challenge. NSET has already started fund-raising for the learning centre.
Final Report UNESCO CCT Initiative: Reduction of Natural Disasters in Asia, Latin America, and the Caribbean
UNESCO CCT Initiative Disaster Risk Reduction in Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean The Schools Project in Tijuana, Mexico
1. INTRODUCTION – EDUCATION AND SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT
La Comisión Mundial sobre Ambiente y Desarrollo 1987, en su informe ‘Nuestro futuro común’ (Informe Brundtland) define el término desarrollo sostenible como: aquella forma de desarrollo que satisface las necesidades del presente sin poner en peligro las generaciones futuras (Revista EIRD Estrategia Internacional para la Reducción de Desastres Naturales, 2002 Año Internacional de las Montañas).
La definición, de un sentido amplio y profundo implica el llevar a cabo decisiones y acciones responsables en el presente, condicionándolas hacia su impacto en el futuro. Este desarrollo sostenible, particularmente en paises en desarrollo con un alto crecimiento poblacional y urbano, está cada día más amenazado por fenómenos naturales extraordinarios (terremotos, sequías, ciclones, tormentas severas, etc.). Hemos sido testigos que durante la ocurrencia de estos fenómenos, en lapsos muy cortos de tiempo (segundos a horas) se sufren retrasos importantes (años a décadas) e incluso se pierden valiosas vidas humanas, frecuentemente de la gente más desfavorecida tanto económicamente como en educación. El desarrollo que se había alcanzado en estos casos no era un desarrollo sostenible.
Los riesgos creados por actividades humanas en zonas urbanas, además de incidir negativamente en el desarrollo, impactan también a gente que no tuvo siquiera la oportunidad de conocerlos, entenderlos y aprender a vivir con ellos; ni aún el derecho básico de conocer el problema fue aplicado, menos el derecho a protegerse y salvar sus vidas. En todo el mundo, las lecciones cada vez son más dramáticas; para algunas ciudades es como estar participando en un ‘sorteo diario de desastres naturales’, el cual cada día expide un número mayor de boletos, y el elemento necesario para adquirir un boleto, es la ignorancia.
No podemos seguir permitiendo, -como escribe Luis González de Alba en su artículo ‘Como hacer la ruina de un país’- que por aplicar políticas equivocadas, además de estarnos ‘comiendo el presente’, también ‘nos comamos el futuro’; y eso se logra cuando se entrega el sistema educativo de un país a un populismo retrógrado.
Así, una de las componentes participantes que puede contribuir a un desarrollo sostenible es la educación, en el sentido amplio de esta palabra (urbanidad, creencias, instrucción, ética), no solo enseñanza automática y repetitiva de conceptos, algunas veces obsoletos. La componente educacional de este proyecto UNESCO, con una aceptación unánime en el grupo RADIUS Tijuana, abre un capítulo de oportunidades sobre prevención de riesgos a futuras generaciones.
IMPLEMENTATION OF THE SCHOOLS PROJECT IN TIJUANA
Para la implementación del proyecto en escuelas, fue electa la Escuela Secundaria Técnica Municipal No. 2 “Xicotencatl Leyva Alemán’ en su turno vespertino. Como el nombre lo indica depende de la Municipalidad de Tijuana y en ello se baso su elección. Su director es el Prof. Francisco Aranda Cárdenas. En un primer acercamiento se expuso a sus cuadros directivos, un proyecto demostrativo, su filosofía y alcances, el cual fue inmediatamente aceptado. Por las características de proyecto piloto, en su primera fase, se planteó un objetivo de corto plazo en los grupos de 2º. y 3º. de Secundaria (siguientes fotos). Este consistió de la adecuación del ejercicio ‘Construyendo para el Gran Terremoto’ (Building for the Big One) desarrollado por el Museo Tecnológico de Innovación, en San José, California y la elección de 2 representantes para asistir al simposio final del proyecto en San José, California.
Final Report UNESCO CCT Initiative: Reduction of Natural Disasters in Asia, Latin America, and the Caribbean
Grupos de alumnos participantes en el Proyecto UNESCO.
El proyecto inició con la visita del Dr. Carlos Villacís asesor de UNESCO (noviembre 2003); en ella fue presentado a los grupos de alumnos participantes y el Dr. Villacís además de explicarles los objetivos y tipo de proyecto les dirigió unas palabras de superación y ánimo de trabajar para crear un futuro seguro y sostenible.
La segunda visita del Dr. Villacís (2 días despúes) fue para iniciar el proceso de interacción con los estudiantes de Kathmandu, Nepal; Antofagasta, Chile y San José, California, mediante la página web habilitada para ello: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/schools_project. En esa ocasión alumnos de la escuela obsequiaron al Dr. Villacís una camiseta distintiva de su equipo de fútbol.
En la siguiente semana, personal del Centro de Investigación Científica y de Educación Superior de Ensenada (CICESE) impartió un seminario sobre temas de riesgo sísmico y sismicidad local, a los maestros encargados de los 2 grupos: i) Prof. Jesús Valdéz García del 2º. A y ii) Prof. Diego David Cota Torres de 3º. A, para que ellos en su momento lo transmitieran a sus alumnos.
La siguiente visita por parte del Director de Protección Civil Municipal, y personal del CICESE fue para que en cada salón se formaran grupos de 4 alumnos y llevaran a cabo la construcción de una estructura de madera utilizando materiales proporcionados por sus maestros, en un tiempo limite. El ejercicio y concurso para elegir a los representantes de la escuela a asistir a San José, California, consistió en:
a) construír una estructura de mínimo 25 cm de altura, utilizando solo 25 segmentos de madera. b) La unión de estos segmentos debía hacerse con silicón aplicándolo con una pistola caliente y solo podría utilizarse un solo cartucho. c) El tiempo para la construcción de la estructura sería de 20 minutos. d) La estructura para calificar debía de soportar una ‘prueba’ de carga, con duración de 25 segundos.
Final Report UNESCO CCT Initiative: Reduction of Natural Disasters in Asia, Latin America, and the Caribbean
En cada salón se formaron equipos de 4 a 5 personas. En ambos salones se lograron 12 equipos.
Antes de iniciar el ejercicio se dió un tiempo de discusión sobre las características básicas que deben tomarse en cuenta en el diseño y construcción de estructuras (simetría, uniones, base, alturas, etc.); la mayoría de alumnos participaron con sus ideas y comentarios. Por lo limitado del tiempo (20 minutos) y del material a utilizarse (25 piezas de madera y un cartucho de silicon) se les hizo hincapié en invertir un tiempo corto en primero clarificar sus ideas sobre la forma de la estructura y tipo de uniones.
Al termino de los 20 minutos, todos los trabajos fueron colocados sobre una mesa y enseguida un representante de cada equipo paso al frente a explicar al resto del grupo el porque de su selección de forma, altura y forma de conectar los elementos.
Alumnos presentando y explicando sus trabajos.
Al final del día, todos los trabajos fueron llevados a las instalaciones de la Dirección Municipal de Protección Civil para aplicar la ‘prueba’ de carga. En esos días los alumnos salían de vacaciones de invierno.
La siguiente etapa, en las instalaciones de Protección Civil Municipal, consistió en seleccionar a un equipo ganador, y para ello fue necesario aplicar una prueba de fuerzas sobre las estructuras construidas. Para que la prueba fuera la misma para todos, el Ing. Mario Rodríguez del Grupo RADIUS-Tijuana facilitó una pequeña mesa vibradora (ver foto). A una placa, se conecta un motor controlado por un reóstato y se le aplican las revoluciones pertinentes.
Equipo de prueba
Final Report UNESCO CCT Initiative: Reduction of Natural Disasters in Asia, Latin America, and the Caribbean
En la primera fase de la prueba, el movimiento aplicado fue de 35 rpm (frecuencia de 0.6 cps) y un desplazamiento horizontal de 2.5 cm en ambas direcciones. Las estructuras fueron sujetas en su base por una cinta adhesiva. A esta prueba sobrevivieron todas las estructuras.
En la segunda fase, se aumentó la carga de la prueba, se conservaron los mismos de frecuencia y desplazamiento en la mesa de pruebas, solo que ahora se aplico un peso sobre la parte superior de las estructuras (pinza mecánica). A esta prueba solo sobrevivieron 5 estructuras.
Segunda fase. Tercera fase.
La tercera fase consistió en desconectar el brazo de la mesa al motor y aplicar la fuerza horizontal por una persona. Para ello, las 5 estructuras fueran sujetas en su base con una mano y con ambas se aplicaba la fuerza. A esta prueba solo sobrevivió una estructura, qué fue la del equipo ganador.
Los nombres de alumnos del equipo ganador son: Juan Moreno, José Moreno, José Paredes, David Guzmán, Juan Rodríguez y Angel Castillo. La decisión final para seleccionar 2 representantes se dio en la Escuela y según comunicación de los profesores, dependió de asuntos de visas y permisos familiares. En la siguiente foto aparecen los 2 alumnos asistentes a San José, California, representando a la ciudad de Tijuana, acompañados de su Prof. Diego D. Cota Torres.
Los alumnos del equipo ganador fueron: José Paredes, Angel Castillo, Juan Moreno, David Guzmán, José Moreno y Juan Rodríguez. En la foto aparecen, en compañía de su profesor, los dos estudiantes seleccionados para asistir al simposio final: José Paredes y Angel Castillo ).
Final Report UNESCO CCT Initiative: Reduction of Natural Disasters in Asia, Latin America, and the Caribbean
CONCLUSIONS
La selección de la escuela para este ejercicio, desde nuestro punto de vista, fue correcta. Desde la primer visita a la escuela, en compañía del Dr. Villacís, su Director el Prof. Francisco Aranda Cárdenas nos dío un recorrido por todas sus instalaciones. Nos llamó mucho la atención que muchas de las obras y servicios con que cuenta la escuela han sido realizadas por los alumnos con la dirección de sus maestros. La ampliación de aulas, acondicionamiento de instalaciones eléctricas, lámparas externas, campos de fútbol y canchas de basquetbol, todas estas obras forman parte de los talleres de trabajo de los alumnos. Esto ha hecho que tanto directivos como alumnado quieran y respeten sus instalaciones, conservandolas de la mejor forma. También llama la atención el respeto entre alumnos y sus maestros, sin mencionar cuando se cuenta con la asistencia de personas externas a la escuela.
La gran mayoría de alumnos, estan muy agradecidos y orgullosos de que su escuela haya sido electa. Todos mostraron gran interés en el tema, algunos desconocían el riesgo sísmico en Tijuana y sobretodo no se habían detenido a pensar que, si se planean bien las obras y se lleva a cabo una buena construcción, es posible tener mayores posibilidades de éxito para enfrentar la prueba natural de un terremoto.
Dado que el ejercicio ‘Big One’ fue implementado en las últimas semanas del ciclo escolar de invierno y que la continuación de actividades escolares se dio hasta mediados del mes de enero 2004, durante la semana del Simposio, se tiene el compromiso de continuar con otros salones de esta escuela y enseguida pasar a un concurso entre escuelas. El alumnado de secundaria esta motivado y piden seguir interactuando entre ellos alrededor de un tema que les resultó de mucha importancia para su futuro y el de sus familias.
El reto ahora, es seguir aumentando el número de participantes y así ir creando una verdadera conciencia preventiva que seguramente dará sus frutos en un mediano plazo. Los alumnos que elijan carreras técnicas asociadas a la construcción ya cuentan con una motivación, otros que elijan carreras afines o no al tema, seguramente pedirán de sus colegas un buen trabajo y la promoción de leyes y reglamentos adecuados para resistir el fenómeno. El tiempo les mostrará la atinada decisión de invertir tiempo y esfuerzos en Educación.
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