Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized A WORLD BANK STUDY Increasing Resilience to Climate Change in the Agricultural Sector of the Middle East: The Cases of Jordan and Lebanon Dorte Verner, David R. Lee, Maximillian Ashwill, and Robert Wilby Washington, D.C. © 2013 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank 1818 H Street NW, Washington DC 20433 Telephone: 202-473-1000; Internet: www.worldbank.org Some rights reserved 1 2 3 4 16 15 14 13 World Bank Studies are published to communicate the results of the Bank’s work to the development community with the least possible delay. The manuscript of this paper therefore has not been prepared in accordance with the procedures appropriate to formally edited texts. This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank with external contributions. 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Washington, DC: World Bank. doi:10.1596/978-0-8213-9844-9 License: Creative Commons Attribution CC BY 3.0 Translations—If you create a translation of this work, please add the following disclaimer along with the attribution: This translation was not created by The World Bank and should not be considered an official World Bank translation. The World Bank shall not be liable for any content or error in this translation. All queries on rights and licenses should be addressed to the Office of the Publisher, The World Bank, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; fax: 202-522-2625; e-mail: [email protected]. ISBN (paper): 978-0-8213-9844-9 ISBN (electronic): 978-0-8213-9845-6 DOI: 10.1596/978-0-8213-9844-9 Cover photo credit: © Dorte Verner, used with permission. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data. Increasing resilience to climate change in the agricultural sector of the Middle East : the cases of Jordan and Lebanon / Sustainable Development Department, Middle East and North Africa Region. p. cm. Includes bibliographical references and index. ISBN 978-0-8213-9844-9 (alk. paper) 1. Crops and climate—Lebanon. 2. Crops and climate—Jordan. 3. Climatic changes—Government policy—Lebanon. 4. Climatic changes—Government policy—Jordan. 5. Agriculture and state— Lebanon. 6. Agriculture and state—Jordan. I. World Bank. Middle East and North Africa Region. Sustainable Development. S600.64.L4I53 2013 363.738’740956—dc23 2013001567 Contents Acknowledgments ix Executive Summary xi Actions to Increase Resilience Are Needed in Jordan and Lebanon xi A Participatory Process Can Be Used to Build Climate Resilience xiv Jordan and Lebanon Are Getting Hotter, Drier, and Experiencing More Climate Variability xvi Developing Action Plans Is a Key Step in Addressing Climate Change xvii More Timely and Accessible Meteorological Information Is Needed to Increase Resilience xxi Important Policies Can Be Implemented in Both Countries to Build Resilience xxii Road Map of This Report xxv References xxvi Chapter 1 Introduction 1 References 7 Chapter 2 Climate Change in Lebanon and Jordan 9 Global Climate Change 11 Climate Information Sources 12 Climate of the Region 14 Observed Climate Trends 17 Climate Model Projections 20 Statistical Downscaling Model 22 Statistical Downscaling Experiments 26 Impacts of Climate Change 32 Notes 40 References 40 Chapter 3 Priority Setting for Building Agricultural Resilience 47 Methodology 47 Lebanon 51 iii iv Contents Jordan 73 Notes 99 References 99 Chapter 4 Conclusions and Policy Options 107 Conclusions 108 Policy Options 113 Notes 118 References 118 Appendix A List of Stations Employed in Syria’s First National Communication 121 Appendix B Mann-Kendall Trend Statistics for Annual Precipitation, Mean Maximum, and Minimum Temperatures, Relative Humidity, Evaporation, and Sunshine Duration at Sites Across Jordan 123 Appendix C Predictor Variables for Downscaling Daily Mean Temperature (Top Panel) and Daily Precipitation (Bottom Panel) at Test Sites in Jordan, Lebanon, and the Syrian Arab Republic 125 Appendix D Changes in Seasonal and Annual Mean Temperature (°C) Downscaled From HadCM3 Under SRES A2 and B2 Emissions Scenarios for Selected Sites in Jordan, Lebanon, and the Syrian Arab Republic 127 Appendix E Changes in Seasonal and Annual Precipitation Totals (mm) Downscaled from HadCM3 Under SRES A2 and B2 Emissions Scenarios for Selected Sites in Jordan, Lebanon, and the Syrian Arab Republic 129 Appendix F Priority Elements of Draft Action Plan, Bekaa Valley 131 Appendix G Priority Elements of Draft Action Plan, Jordan River Valley 135 Boxes Box 2.1: Biophysical Impacts of Climate Change on Agricultural Systems 36 Box 3.1: Response Option—Lebanon: Adoption of New Irrigation Technologies 65 Box 3.2: Response Option—Jordan: Reinforce Early Warning System for Drought 88 Contents v Box 3.3: A Comparison of Selected Agricultural Indicators for Jordan and Lebanon 97 Figures Figure 2.1: Observed and Re-Scaled TRMM Daily Rainfall at Kamishli (Upper) and Amman (Lower) 17 Figure 2.2: Observed and TRMM Rainfall Totals at Kamishli (Left) and Amman (Right Panel) 1998–99 17 Figure 2.3: Annual Mean Temperatures for Selected Stations in the HadCRUT3 Archive 18 Figure 2.4: Annual Precipitation Totals for Selected Sites in the GHCN Archive 19 Figure 2.5: Downscaled and Observed Daily Mean Temperature at Amman for 1999–2000 23 Figure 2.6: Hindcasts of Winter Mean Temperatures (Left Panel) and Estimated Return Periods for Daily Mean Temperatures (Right Panel) at Amman 23 Figure 2.7: Observed (Black Line) and Downscaled (Grey Line) Distributions of Wet-Day Totals at Amman for the Period 1961–2000. 24 Figure 2.8: Observed (Black) and Downscaled (Grey) Monthly Rainfall Metrics at Amman for the Period 1961–2000: Wet-Day Probability (Top Left), Total Rainfall (Top Right), 95th Percentile Wet-Day Total (Bottom Left) and Mean Dry-Spell Duration (Bottom Light) 24 Figure 2.9: Observed and SDSM Hindcast Daily Mean Temperature (Left) and Winter Growing Degree Days (Right) at Kfardane, Lebanon 25 Figure 2.10: Observed and SDSM Hindcast Wet-Day Precipitation Amount Distribution (Left) and Annual Precipitation Totals (Right) at Kfardane, Lebanon 26 Figure 2.11: Changes in Monthly Mean Temperatures (°C) Downscaled from HadCM3 to Amman and Kfardane under SRES A2 (Left Panels) and B2 (Right Panels) Emissions. 28 Figure 2.12: Changes (Millimeters) in Monthly Precipitation Totals Downscaled from HadCM3 to Amman and Kfardane under SRES A2 (Left Panels) and B2 (Right Panels) Emissions 29 Figure 2.13: Observed (OBS) and Downscaled (SRES A2 and B2) Annual Rainfall Totals (Left Panel) with 30-Year Moving Averages of the Chance of Years with Totals below 200 Millimeters (Right Panel) at Amman 1961–2099 29 Figure 2.14: Annual Maximum Dry-Spell Duration (Dry Season) at Amman Downscaled from HadCM3 under SRES A2 and B2 Emissions 30 Figure 2.15: Changes in Annual Mean Temperature (Left Column) and Precipitation Totals (Right Column) in Relation to the Site Elevation (Upper Panels) and Longitude (Lower Panels) 31 vi Contents Figure B3.3.1: Agriculture Value Added Per Worker (Constant 2000 US$)—2008 98 Maps Map 2.1: Projected Patterns of Precipitation Changes (%) for 2090–99 Compared with 1980–90 Based on Multi-Model Average Projections under the SRES A1B Scenario 12 Map 2.2: Location of Rainfall Stations (Left Panel) with Data for 1961–90 and the Average Number of Rain Gauges per 1.0° × 1.0° Grid during 1998–2007 (Right Panel) 13 Map 2.3: Accumulated Rainfall Totals (Millimeters) Based on Monthly GPCP for the Decade 1998–2007 14 Map 2.4: Winter (December-January-February) Rainfall Totals (Millimeters) in 2007–08 (Left Panel, Positive NAO) and 2009–10 (Right Panel, Negative NAO) 15 Map 2.5: Accumulated Rainfall Totals (Millimeters) from Daily TRMM for the Decade 1998–2007 16 Map 2.6: Trend in Annual Cool Days (TX10p), Cool Nights (TN10p), Hot Days (TX90p), and Hot Nights (TN90p) for the Periods 1950–2003 and 1970–2003 19 Map 2.7: Temperature and Precipitation Changes Over Africa from the MMD-A1B