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The Effect of Climate Change on the Vegetation Cover of the Mujib Nature Reserve – Dead Sea

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The Effect of Climate Change on the Vegetation Cover of the Mujib Nature Reserve – Dead Sea The Effect of Climate Change on the Vegetation Cover of the Mujib Nature Reserve – Dead Sea Wisam Khisro Degree project for Master of Science (60 credits) with a major in Atmospheric Science 60 hec Department of Biological and Environmental Sciences University of Gothenburg Abstract Climate change is one of the most important environmental issues that threaten the entire planet. It does not only affect the environment, but it also have economic, social and political aspects. This problem exacerbated day after day to become the main concern of experts and interested parties in the field. However, nature reserves are considered as a successful way to conserve the vegetation cover, especially in arid regions. This helps to combat desertification, which is a product of land use and climate change. Hence, there is good reason for the selection of nature reserve in an arid region, the Mujib Nature Reserve-Dead Sea in the Middle East (Jordan), to study the effects of climate change on this type of fragile ecosystem. The Mujib nature reserve covers an area of 212 square kilometers. This investigation conducted in the present thesis, statistically analyzed and discussed time series for climate data such as temperature, precipitation and, humidity, as well as, vegetation cover as represented by the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). The time series were analyzed for significant trends and relationships between NDVI and meteorological variables. The study period was 1983 to 2001. After examining the variables, it was found that there is a significant decrease in the rates of precipitation, with an increase of temperatures in conjunction with decline in the NDVI. In addition a sharp decline in wind speed and remarkable increase in the number of days of high humidity were noticed along the studied time period.Which pointed out that there is a particular link between these climatic variables and volatility and the decline of vegetation. Also, in spite of the topographic and climatic peculiarity of the study region, the results likely indicate the nature of climate change in the nearby countries characterized by arid climates, these include Iraq and Saudi Arabia. Key words: Climate change, nature reserves, vegetation cover, NDVI, desertification, temperature, Jordan. Table of Contents 1 Introduction................................................................................................................ 1 1.2 The climate and vegetation of Jordan.......................................................... 2 1.3 The nature conservation in Jordan............................................................... 4 1.4 Climate change ........................................................................................... 5 2 Rationale and Aim of the Study……………………………………….……………. 6 2.1 Research questions…………………………………………………………….. 6 2.2 Hypotheses……………………………………………………….………….… 7 3 Materials and Methods…………………………………………………………….… 7 3.1 Sources of Data………………………………………………………………. 7 3.2 Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDV) Definition…….................... 8 4 Results…..………………………………………………………………………..….... 8 4.1 Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI)……………………………...9 4.2 Mean Precipitation……………………………………………...........................9 4.3 Precipitation and Normalized DifferenceVegetation Index (NDVI) ……..........11 4.4 Annual Mean Air Temperature (TMEAN)…………………………….…..........12 4.5 Daily Mean Maximum and Minimum Air Temperature(TMAX, TMIN)...........12 4.6 Cloud Cover……………………………………………………………………...12 4.7 Wind Speed………………………………………………………………………13 4.8 Average Number of Humid Days……..…………………………………...……..13 4.9 Mean Temperature and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) Relationship…………………………………………………………………….…….14 5 Discussion……………………………………………………….……………….. ……14 5.1 Climate change and Vegetation cover……………………….............................14 5.2 Overgrazing…………………………………………………………………….....16 5.3 Vegetation types fragility …………………………………………………………17 5.4 Methodological limitations……………………………………………….….….…17 6 Conclusion………………………………………………………………………….……18 7 Acknowledgement……………………………………………………………….… 18 8 References………………………………………………………………………….. 19 1 Introduction 1.1 Nature Conservations One of the most important and classic instruments for nature conservation is to protect areas. According to the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) a protected area is an area of land or sea especially dedicated to protection and maintenance of biological diversity, of natural and associated cultural resources, and managed through legal or other effective means. There are six categories according to the (IUCN)’s classification system (Burhenne-Guilmin 2011) (see Table 1-1). Protection can be classified according to the size of areas to be protected as large areas, medium areas or it can be applied e.g. on a particular type of plant (a single object). Those who work in the field of nature protection try to mitigate the loss or lack of flora and fauna in order to maintain biodiversity, which is essential for the sustainability of any ecosystem, and this is one of the major objectives of establishing nature reserves. Nevertheless, the benefits of protected areas are no longer limited to maintain flora and fauna from extinction only. It also contributes to the environmental stability and reduces floods and drought and protects soil quality. Recently, the interest of nature based tourism, especially ecotourism has increased strongly; because of the attractions many ecosystems offer. This kind of tourism promotes the sustainable development, and this is reflected in such a positive way on the economies of those countries that sponsor projects of nature reserves. In addition to maintaining ecosystems characteristics, these reasons show the importance of studying nature reserves and of examining factors that distort their ecological structures and functions. Climate change is one of the most important factors that play a major role in changing the characteristics of ecosystems, as it will be exemplified in this thesis with an area in Jordan. Table 1. The IUCN categories of protected areas (Dudley 2008) Classification Description Ia CATEGORY Strict Nature Reserve: protected area managed mainly for science Ib CATEGORY Wilderness Area: protected area managed mainly for wilderness protection II CATEGORY National Park: protected area managed mainly for ecosystem protection and recreation III CATEGORY NaturalMonument: protected area managed mainly for conservation of specific natural features IV CATEGORY Habitat/Species Management Area: protected area managed mainly for conservation through management intervention V CATEGORY Protected Landscape/Seascape: protected area managed mainly for landscape/seascape conservation and recreation VI CATEGORY Managed Resource Protected Area: protected area managed mainly for the sustainable use of natural ecosystems 1 1.2 The climate and vegetation of Jordan Jordan is a Kingdom located in the Middle East to the northwest of Saudi Arabia, the south of Syria, the southwest of Iraq, and to the east of Israel and the Palestinian Authority. Its climate varies from Mediterranean in the west to desert in the east and south, thus the country is generally more or less arid. However, the proximity of the Mediterranean Sea has a major influence on its climate. The major characteristic of the country's climate is the contrast between hot, dry, uniform summers and cool variable winters. The rainy season is between October and May with 80 % of the annual rainfall occurring between December and March. (The third Jordanian report on UNCCD 2007). Jordan is a relatively small country in terms of area; but with great diversity in plants due to climate variations. There are four bioclimatic subdivisions in Jordan (Long 1957), (FAO1957), See Fig (1) Mediterranean: This region is restricted to the highlands extending from Irbid in the north to Ras En-Naqab in the south. The altitude ranges from 700-1750 m above sea level. The rainfall ranges from 300-600 mm. The minimum annual temperature ranges from 5-10 º C. The soil type is dominated by the red Mediterranean soil (terra rossa) and the yellow Mediterranean soil (rendzina). This region comprises the most fertile part of the Kingdom and contains 90 percent of the population. Irano-Turanian: A narrow strip of variable width that surrounds all the Mediterranean ecozone except in the north. It is characterized by being treeless. The vegetation is mainly small shrubs and bushes such as Artemisia herba-alba and Anabasis syriaca. Altitudes range from 500-700 m, and rainfall ranges from 150-300 mm. Mean annual minimum temperatures range from 5-2º C, and mean annual maxima range from 15-25º C. Calcareous, arid and semi-arid soils are more likely to be transported by wind. The vegetation is dominated by woody plant whose resting buds are on or near the ground named chamaeophytes. Saharo-Arabian: This is the eastern desert or “Badia” and comprises almost 80% of Jordan. It is flat except for a few hills or small mountains, the result of volcanic eruptions. Altitude ranges between 500-700 m. The mean annual rainfall ranges from 50-200 mm, mean annual minimum temperatures range from 2-15º C. Soil is mostly poor in nutrients, either clay, saline, sandy or calcareous. Vegetation is dominated by small shrubs and small annuals in the valley beds. Sudanian: It starts at the northern part of the Dead Sea and ends at the tip of the Gulf of Aqaba in the south along the Dead Sea depression and WadiAraba. The
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