Global Warming Climate Change Contents

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1 Adaptation to global warming 1 1.1 Eﬀects of global warming ...... 1 1.2 Necessity for adaptation ...... 1 1.2.1 National Academy of Sciences ...... 2 1.2.2 United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction ...... 2 1.2.3 IPCC Working Group II ...... 2 1.2.4 Institution of Mechanical Engineers ...... 3 1.3 Conceptualising adaptation ...... 3 1.4 Criteria for assessing responses ...... 4 1.5 Costs ...... 4 1.6 Adaptation mechanisms ...... 5 1.7 Methods of adaptation ...... 5 1.7.1 Adaptation through local planning ...... 5 1.7.2 Enhancing adaptive capacity ...... 6 1.7.3 Agricultural production ...... 6 1.7.4 Weather control ...... 7 1.7.5 Damming glacial lakes ...... 7 1.7.6 Geoengineering ...... 7 1.7.7 Assisting disadvantaged nations ...... 8 1.7.8 Migration ...... 8 1.7.9 Insurance ...... 8 1.8 Adaptation ﬁnance ...... 9 1.9 Adaptation measures by country ...... 9 1.10 Opposition to adaption ...... 9 1.11 See also ...... 9 1.12 References ...... 10 1.13 Sources ...... 14 1.13.1 Relevant IPCC reports ...... 14 1.13.2 Relevant United States sources ...... 14 1.13.3 Other government sources ...... 14 1.13.4 Other relevant sources ...... 14

2 Eﬀects of global warming 16

i ii CONTENTS

2.1 Definitions ...... 16 2.2 Temperature changes ...... 17 2.2.1 SRES emissions scenarios ...... 17 2.2.2 Projected warming in context ...... 17 2.3 Physical impacts ...... 18 2.3.1 Effects on weather ...... 18 2.3.2 Cryosphere ...... 19 2.3.3 Oceans ...... 20 2.4 Regions ...... 21 2.4.1 Observed impacts ...... 22 2.4.2 Projected impacts ...... 22 2.5 Social systems ...... 22 2.5.1 Food supply ...... 22 2.5.2 Health ...... 23 2.5.3 Water resources ...... 24 2.5.4 Migration and conflict ...... 24 2.5.5 Aggregate impacts ...... 25 2.6 Biological systems ...... 25 2.6.1 Observed impacts on biological systems ...... 25 2.6.2 Projected impacts on biological systems ...... 25 2.7 Abrupt or irreversible changes ...... 26 2.7.1 Biogeochemical cycles ...... 26 2.7.2 Greenland and West Antarctic Ice sheets ...... 27 2.7.3 The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation ...... 27 2.7.4 Irreversibilities ...... 27 2.8 Scientific opinion ...... 28 2.8.1 NASA data and tools ...... 28 2.9 See also ...... 28 2.10 Footnotes ...... 28 2.11 Notes ...... 29 2.12 References ...... 35 2.13 Further reading ...... 37 2.14 External links ...... 37

3 Global warming 38 3.1 Observed temperature changes ...... 39 3.1.1 Trends ...... 40 3.1.2 Warmest years ...... 40 3.2 Initial causes of temperature changes (external forcings) ...... 40 3.2.1 Greenhouse gases ...... 40 3.2.2 Particulates and soot ...... 41 3.2.3 Solar activity ...... 42 CONTENTS iii

3.3 Feedback ...... 43 3.4 Climate models ...... 43 3.5 Observed and expected environmental effects ...... 44 3.5.1 Extreme weather ...... 45 3.5.2 Sea level rise ...... 45 3.5.3 Ecological systems ...... 45 3.5.4 Long-term effects ...... 45 3.5.5 Large-scale and abrupt impacts ...... 46 3.6 Observed and expected effects on social systems ...... 46 3.6.1 Habitat inundation ...... 46 3.7 Possible responses to global warming ...... 47 3.7.1 Mitigation ...... 47 3.7.2 Adaptation ...... 47 3.7.3 Climate engineering ...... 47 3.8 Discourse about global warming ...... 47 3.8.1 Political discussion ...... 47 3.8.2 Scientific discussion ...... 48 3.8.3 Discussion by the public and in popular media ...... 49 3.9 Etymology ...... 49 3.10 See also ...... 50 3.11 Notes ...... 50 3.12 Citations ...... 50 3.13 References ...... 60 3.14 Further reading ...... 62 3.15 External links ...... 63

4 Greenhouse gas 65 4.1 Gases in Earth’s atmosphere ...... 65 4.1.1 Greenhouse gases ...... 65 4.1.2 Non-greenhouse gases ...... 66 4.1.3 Indirect radiative effects ...... 66 4.1.4 Contribution of clouds to Earth’s greenhouse effect ...... 67 4.2 Impacts on the overall greenhouse effect ...... 67 4.2.1 Proportion of direct effects at a given moment ...... 67 4.2.2 Atmospheric lifetime ...... 67 4.2.3 Radiative forcing ...... 68 4.2.4 Global warming potential ...... 68 4.3 Natural and anthropogenic sources ...... 68

5 Sea level rise 70 5.1 Mechanism ...... 70 5.2 Past changes in sea level ...... 71 iv CONTENTS

5.3 Projections ...... 72 5.3.1 21st century ...... 72 5.3.2 After 2100 ...... 72 5.4 Models ...... 72 5.5 Contribution ...... 73 5.5.1 Antarctica ...... 73 5.5.2 Glaciers ...... 74 5.5.3 Greenland ...... 74 5.6 Eﬀects of sea-level rise ...... 75 5.6.1 Island nations ...... 76 5.6.2 Cities ...... 76 5.6.3 Extreme sea level rise events ...... 76 5.7 Sea level measurement ...... 76 5.7.1 Satellites ...... 76 5.7.2 Tide gauge ...... 77 5.8 Adaptation ...... 77 5.9 See also ...... 78 5.10 Notes ...... 78 5.11 References ...... 81 5.12 Further reading ...... 82 5.13 External links ...... 83 5.14 Text and image sources, contributors, and licenses ...... 84 5.14.1 Text ...... 84 5.14.2 Images ...... 90 5.14.3 Content license ...... 96 Chapter 1

Adaptation to global warming

Adaptation to global warming is a response to global 1.1 Effects of global warming warming that seeks to reduce the vulnerability of social and biological systems to current climate change and thus Main article: Effects of global warming offset the effects of global warming.[1] Even if emissions are stabilized relatively soon, global warming and its effects will last many years, and adaptation will be neces- The projected effects for the environment and for sary to the resulting changes in climate.[2] Adaptation is civilization are numerous and varied. The main effect especially important in developing countries since those is an increasing global average temperature. The aver- countries are predicted to bear the brunt of the effects age surface temperature could increase by 3 to 10 degrees of global warming.[3] That is, the capacity and poten- Fahrenheit by the end of the century if carbon emissions tial for humans to adapt (called adaptive capacity) is un- aren't reduced.[12] This causes a variety of secondary ef- evenly distributed across different regions and popula- fects, namely, changes in patterns of precipitation, ris- tions, and developing countries generally have less capac- ing sea levels, altered patterns of agriculture, increased ity to adapt (Schneider et al., 2007).[4] Adaptive capac- extreme weather events, the expansion of the range of ity is closely linked to social and economic development tropical diseases, and the opening of new marine trade (IPCC, 2007).[5] The economic costs of adaptation to cli- routes. mate change are likely to cost billions of dollars annually Potential effects include sea level rise of 110 to 770 mm for the next several decades, though the amount of money (0.36 to 2.5 feet) between 1990 and 2100, repercussions needed is unknown. Donor countries promised an annual to agriculture, possible slowing of the thermohaline cir- $100 billion by 2020 through the Green Climate Fund for culation, reductions in the ozone layer, increased inten- developing countries to adapt to climate change. How- sity and frequency of extreme weather events, lowering ever, while the fund was set up during COP16 in Cancún, of ocean pH, and the spread of tropical diseases such as concrete pledges by developed countries have not been malaria and dengue fever. forthcoming.[6] [7][8] The adaptation challenge grows with the magnitude and the rate of climate change. A summary of probable effects and recent understanding can be found in the report made for the IPCC Third Another policy response to climate change, known as [13] [9] Assessment Report by Working Group II. The 2007 climate change mitigation (Verbruggen, 2007) is to re- contribution of Working Group II detailing the impacts duce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and/or enhance of global warming for the IPCC Fourth Assessment Re- the removal of these gases from the atmosphere (through port has been summarized for policymakers.[14] carbon sinks).[10] Even the most effective reductions in emissions, however, would not prevent further climate Adaptation is handicapped by uncertainty over the ef- change impacts, making the need for adaptation unavoid- fects of global warming on specific locations such as the able (Klein et al., 2007).[11] In a literature assessment, Southwestern United States or phenomena such as the [15] Klein et al. (2007) assessed options for adaptation. They Indian monsoon. concluded, with very high confidence, that in the absence of mitigation efforts, the effects of climate change would reach such a magnitude as to make adaptation impossi- ble for some natural ecosystems. For human systems, the 1.2 Necessity for adaptation economic and social costs of unmitigated climate change would be very high. In the February 8, 2007 issue of Nature, a team of science policy experts argue that adapting to climate change would be a more effective means of dealing with global warming than reducing emissions of greenhouse gases.[16]

1 2 CHAPTER 1. ADAPTATION TO GLOBAL WARMING

1.2.1 National Academy of Sciences Disadvantaged nations

One prominent attempt to address adaptation was a 1991 The ability of human systems to adapt to and cope with report by the United States National Academy of Sci- climate change depends on such factors as wealth, tech- ences, “Policy Implications of Greenhouse Warming.” nology, education, infrastructure, access to resources, The National Academy report cautioned that agricultural management capabilities, acceptance of the existence of adaptation will be essential in a greenhouse world.[17] climate change and the consequent need for action, and sociopolitical will. Populations and communities are highly variable in their endowments of these attributes, 1.2.2 United Nations International Strat- with developing nations being among those worst-placed egy for Disaster Reduction to adapt to global warming.

The United Nations Disaster Risk Reduction Oﬃce Mutual reinforcement (UNISDR) recognizes climate change adaptation as part of the disaster risk reduction domain as it intends to Many communities and regions that are vulnerable to cli- reduce the risks that vulnerable populations might en- mate change are also under pressure from forces such counter due to climate change.[18] as population growth, resource depletion, and poverty. Policies that lessen pressures on resources, improve management of environmental risks, and increase the wel- 1.2.3 IPCC Working Group II fare of the poorest members of society can simultane- ously advance sustainable development and equity, en- IPCC Working Group II argues that mitigation and adap- hance adaptive capacity, and reduce vulnerability to cli- tation should be complementary components of a re- mate and other stresses. Inclusion of climatic risks in the sponse strategy to global warming. Their report makes design and implementation of national and international the following observations: development initiatives such as polar cities can promote equity and development that is more sustainable and that [21] 1. Adaptation is a necessary strategy at all scales to reduces vulnerability to climate change. complement climate change mitigation eﬀorts.

2. Those with the least resources have the least capacity Mitigation to adapt and are the most vulnerable Yohe et al. (2007) assessed the literature on sustainability [22] 3. Adaptation, sustainable development, and enhance- and climate change. With high confidence, they sug- ment of equity can be mutually reinforcing.[19] gested that up to the year 2050, an effort to cap GHG emissions at 550 ppm would benefit developing countries significantly. This was judged to be especially the Adaptation is a necessary strategy case when combined with enhanced adaptation. By 2100, however, it was still judged likely that there would be sig- Because of the current and projected climate disruption nificant climate change impacts. This was judged to be precipitated by high levels of greenhouse gas emissions by the case even with aggressive mitigation and significantly the industrialized nations, adaptation is a necessary strat- enhanced adaptive capacity. egy at all scales to complement climate change mitigation efforts because we cannot be sure that all climate change can be mitigated. And indeed the odds are quite high Tradeoffs and economics See also: Economics of that in the long run more warming is inevitable, given the global warming § Trade offs high level of GHGs in the atmosphere, and the (several decade) delay between emissions and impact. Adaptation and mitigation can be viewed as two compet- Adaptation can mitigate the adverse impacts of climate ing policy responses, with tradeoffs between the two. The change, but it will incur costs and will not prevent all other tradeoff is with climate change impacts. In practice, however, the actual tradeoffs are debatable (Schneider et damages. Extremes, variability, and rates of change are [23] all key features in addressing vulnerability and adapta- al., 2001). This is because the people who bear emis- tion to climate change, not simply changes in average cli- sion reduction costs or benefits are often different from mate conditions. Planned adaptation can supplement au- those who pay or benefit from adaptation measures. tonomous adaptation, though there are more options and Economists, using cost-benefit analysis, have attempted greater possibility for offering incentives in the case of to calculate an “optimal” balance of the costs and benefits adaptation of human systems than in the case of adapta- between climate change impacts, adaptation, and mitigation to protect natural systems.[20] tion (Toth et al., 2001).[24] There are difficulties in doing 1.3. CONCEPTUALISING ADAPTATION 3 this calculation, for example, future climate change dam- 1.3 Conceptualising adaptation ages are uncertain, as are the future costs of adaptation. Also, deciding what “optimal” is depends on value judge- Adaptation can be defined as adjustments of a system ments made by the economist doing the study (Azar, to reduce vulnerability and to increase the resilience of 1998).[25] For example, how to value impacts occur- system to change, in this case in the climate system.[34] ring in different regions and different times, and “non- Adaptation occurs at a range of inter-linking scales, and market” impacts, e.g., damages to ecosystems (Smith et can either occur in anticipation of change (anticipatory al., 2001).[26] Economics cannot provide definitive an- adaptation), or be a response to those changes (reac- swers to these questions over valuation, and some valu- tive adaptation).[35] Most adaptation being implemented ations may be viewed as being controversial (Banuri et at present is responding to current climate trends and al., 1996, pp. 87, 99).[27] variability, for example increased use of artificial snow- making in the European Alps. Some adaptation mea- Some reviews indicate that policymakers are uncomfort- sures, however, are anticipating future climate change, able with using the results of this type of economic analy- such as the construction of the Confederation Bridge in sis (Klein et al., 2007).[28] This is due to the uncertainties Canada at a higher elevation to take into account the ef- surrounding cost estimates for climate change damages, fect of future sea-level rise on ship clearance under the adaptation, and mitigation. Another type of analysis is bridge.[34] based on a risk-based approach to the problem. Stern (2007) (referred to by Klein et al., 2007), for example, Adaptive capacity and vulnerability are important con- used such an approach. He argued that adaptation would cepts for understanding adaptation; vulnerability can be play an important role in climate policy, but not in an ex- seen as the context in which adaptation takes place, and plicit trade-off against mitigation. adaptive capacity is the ability or potential of a system to respond successfully to climate variability and change, in order to reduce adverse impacts and take advantage of new opportunities.[34] Those societies that can respond UNFCCC to change quickly and successfully have a high adaptive capacity.[36] High adaptive capacity does not necessar- In the United Nations Framework Convention on Cli- ily translate into successful adaptation. For example the mate Change (UNFCCC), which most countries are Par- adaptive capacity in Western Europe is high, and the risks ties to (UNFCCC, n.d.),[29] countries have made com- of warmer winters increasing the range of livestock dis- mitments to assist those most vulnerable in adapting to eases was well documented, but many parts of Europe climate change (Banuri et al., 1996, p. 98).[27] The were still badly affected by outbreaks of the Bluetongue Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), set up as part virus in livestock in 2007. of the Kyoto Protocol to the Framework Convention, is Adaptive capacity is driven by factors operating at many the main source of income for the UNFCCC Adapta- different interlinked scales, and it is important to under- tion Fund. This fund was established in 2007 (World stand the ways in which the different drivers of adap- [30] Bank, 2010, pp. 262–263). The CDM is subject to tive capacity interact. Physical constraints are important, a 2% levy, which could raise between $300 million and but in most cases it is social processes which increase or $600 million over the 2008-12 period. The actual amount decrease adaptive capacity; it can be said that adaptive raised will depend on the carbon price. capacity is socially constructed.[36] The social drivers of Although established under the Kyoto Protocol, the adaptive capacity are varied but may include broad struc- Adaptation Fund has been very slow to operationalize and tures such as economic and political processes, as well has not as yet (August 2010) disbursed any funding. The as processes which operate at a very local scale, such as call for Proposals was issued in April 2010[31] access to decision-making and the structure of social networks and relationships within a community. Adaptive capacity at a local scale is constrained by larger scale processes. For example a farmer’s adaptive capacity will 1.2.4 Institution of Mechanical Engineers not only depend on access to resources (both physical and social) within the community which allow a crop to be grown successfully, but also the effect of macro-scale In February 2009, the Institution of Mechanical Engi- [35] neers (UK) issued a report in which they expressed pes- economic processes on the price received for the crop. simism about the ability of any international agreement, Gender is another factor which is important in determining adaptive capacity constrain adaptive capacity and such as Kyoto Treaty to reduce carbon emissions. While [37] it did not dismiss mitigation policy all together, it stated vulnerability, for example women may have participa- tion in decision-making, or be constrained by lower levels that they are “realistic enough to recognise that global [34] CO2 emissions are not reducing and our climate is chang- of education. ing so unless we adapt, we are likely to face a difficult The social construction of adaptive capacity is very im- future.” [32][33] portant when thinking about the risks and impacts of a 4 CHAPTER 1. ADAPTATION TO GLOBAL WARMING changing climate. It is not just the change in climate tation, and sea level? which will affect vulnerability and livelihoods, but the • way that these changes are negotiated through complex Urgency: Would the strategy be successful if imple- social systems. A 10% decrease in rainfall may be ac- mentation were delayed ten or twenty years? ceptable and manageable to members of a community • Low Cost: Does the strategy require minimal re- who have access to improved agricultural techniques, or sources? whose livelihoods are in some way diversified, whereas marginalised members of the community may not be able • Equity: Does the strategy unfairly benefit some at to cope with these changes.[35] Adaptation can be seen the expense of other regions, generations, or eco- as a social and institutional process that involves reflect- nomic classes? ing on and responding to current trends and projected • changes in climate.[38] Institutional feasibility: Is the strategy acceptable to the public? Can it be implemented with existing in- Both temporal and spatial scales are very important in stitutions under existing laws? thinking about adaptation, as is the frame of reference taken for looking at adaptation. Much adaptation takes • Unique or Critical Resources: Would the strategy place in relation to short-term climate variability, how- decrease the risk of losing unique environmental or ever this may cause maladaptation to longer-term climatic cultural resources? trends. For example, the expansion of irrigation in Egypt • into the Western Sinai desert due to a period of higher Health and Safety: Would the proposed strategy in- river flows is a maladaptation when viewed in relation to crease or decrease the risk of disease or injury? [39] the longer term projections of drying in the region ). • Consistency: Does the policy support other national Adaptations at one scale can also create externalities at state, community, or private goals? another by reducing the adaptive capacity of other actors. This is often the case when broad assessments of the costs • Private v. Public Sector: Does the strategy mini- and benefits of adaptation are examined at smaller scales mize governmental interference with decisions best and it is possible to see that whilst the adaptation may made by the private sector? benefit some actors, it has a negative effect on others.[35] From the current literature on the subject, people have always adapted to a changing climate and that coping 1.5 Costs strategies already exist in many communities, for example changing sowing times or adopting new water- The United Nations Development Programme estimated saving techniques.[39] Traditional knowledge and coping that an additional USD $86 billion per year would be strategies must be maintained and strengthened, other- needed in 2015.[41] wise adaptive capacity may be weakened as local knowl- According to UNFCCC estimates in 2007, costs of adap- edge of the environment is lost. Strengthening these in- tation to climate change would cost $49–171 billion per digenous techniques and building upon them also makes annum globally by 2030, of which a significant share of it more likely that adaptation strategies will be adopted, the additional investment and financial flows, USD $28– as it creates more community ownership and involvement 67 billion would be needed in 2030 in non-Annex I Par- in the process.[34] In some cases however this will be not ties.[42] This represents a doubling of current official de- be enough to adapt to new conditions which are outside velopment assistance (ODA). the range of those previously experienced, and new techniques will be needed.[36] This estimate has been critiqued by Parry et al. (2009), in a joint study by IIED and the Grantham Institute, which argues that the UNFCCC estimate underestimates the 1.4 Criteria for assessing responses cost of adaptation to climate change by a factor of 2 or 3.[43] Moreover, sectors such as tourism, mining, energy, and retail were not included in the UNFCCC estimate. James Titus, project manager for sea level rise at the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, identifies the follow- The more recent World Bank Study on the 'Economics ing criteria that policy makers should use in assessing re- of Adaptation to Climate Change' found that the costs of sponses to global warming:[40] adaptation would be in the range of $75–100 billion per year between 2010 and 2050; with higher estimates under the wetter global scenario than the drier scenario, assum- • Economic Efficiency: Will the initiative yield ben- ing that warming will be about 2 degrees by 2050.[44] efits substantially greater than if the resources were applied elsewhere? The benefits of strong, early action on mitigation considerably outweigh the costs.[45] The Copenhagen Accord • Flexibility: Is the strategy reasonable for the entire was agreed on in order to create a commitment by de- range of possible changes in temperatures, precipi- veloped countries to provide:[46] 1.7. METHODS OF ADAPTATION 5

new and additional resources...approaching 6. Adaptive responses vary in effectiveness, as demon- USD $30 billion for the period 2010- 2012 strated by current efforts to cope with climate vari- with balanced allocation between adaptation ability. and mitigation... [and] in the context of mean- ingful mitigation actions and transparency on 7. The systemic nature of climate impacts complicates implementation, developed countries commit the development of adaptation policy. to a goal of mobilizing jointly USD$100 billion a year by 2020 to address the needs of 8. Maladaptation can result in negative effects that are developing countries. as serious as the climate-induced effects that are be- —Copenhagen Accord ing avoided.

9. Many opportunities for adaptation make sense whether or not the effects of climate change are re- However, a key point of contention between states at the alized. UNFCC Copenhagen Climate Summit was who was to foot the bill and if aid is to be given, how is it to affect other levels of development aid.[46] The concept of additionality has thus arisen and the EU has asked its member 1.7 Methods of adaptation states to come up with definitions of what they understand [46] additionality to mean, the four main definitions are: 1.7.1 Adaptation through local planning

1. Climate finance classified as aid, but additional to Local landuse and municipal planning represent impor- (over and above) the ‘0.7%’ ODA target; tant avenues for adaptation to global warming. These forms of planning are recognised as central to avoiding 2. Increase on previous year’s Official Development the impacts of climate related hazards such as floods and Assistance (ODA) spent on climate change mitiga- heat stress, planning for demographic and consumption tion; transition, and plans for ecosystem conservation.[48] This type of planning is different from the National Adapta- 3. Rising ODA levels that include climate change fi- tion Programs of Action (NAPAs) which are intended to nance but where it is limited to a specified percent- be frameworks for prioritizing adaptation needs.[49] At age; and the local scale, municipalities are at the coal face of adap- 4. Increase in climate finance not connected to ODA. tation where impacts are experienced in the forms of inundation, bushfires, heatwaves and rising sea levels.[50]

The main point being that there is a conflict between the Cities are planning for adapting to global warming and OECD states budget deficit cuts, the need to help devel- climate change. The New York Times began a series of oping countries adapt to develop sustainably and the need articles on this subject with Chicago’s adaptation initia- [51] to ensure that funding does not come from cutting aid to tives being highlighted. Projects include changing to other important Millennium Development Goals.[46] heat tolerant tree varieties, changing to water permeable pavements to absorb higher rainfalls and adding air con- ditioning in public schools. New York and other cities are involved in similar planning.[52][53][54] Carefully planned 1.6 Adaptation mechanisms water storage could help urban areas adapt to increasingly severe storms by increasing rainwater storage (do- Scheraga and Grambsch[47] identify 9 fundamental prin- mestic water butts, unpaved gardens etc.) and increas- ciples to be considered when designing adaptation policy. ing the capacity of stormwater systems (and also sepa- rating stormwater from blackwater, so that overflows in 1. The effects of climate change vary by region. peak periods do not contaminate rivers). According to English Nature, gardeners can help mitigate the effects of 2. The effects of climate change may vary across de- climate change by providing habitats for the most threat- mographic groups. ened species, and/or saving water by changing gardens to use plants which require less.[55] 3. Climate change poses both risks and opportunities. Adaptation through local planning occurs in two distinct 4. The effects of climate change must be considered in modes. The first is strategic planning, which is impor- the context of multiple stressors and factors, which tant but not unique to local governments. At the local may be as important to the design of adaptive re- scale it fosters community vision, aspirational goals and sponses as the sensitivity of the change. place-making, along with defining pathways to achieve these goals. The second form is land-use planning, and 5. Adaptation comes at a cost. is focused on the allocation of space to balance economic 6 CHAPTER 1. ADAPTATION TO GLOBAL WARMING

prosperity with acceptable living standards and the con- local people.[64] They argue that this should play a more servation of natural resources. Although these two types prominent part in future intervention planning because of planning are quite different in practice, and in many agency is a central factor in all other aspects of adaptive cases are managed by different departments, we propose capacity. that both are highly important to climate change adaptation, and can contribute to achieving adaptation at the local scale.[56] Significant constraints are recognised to 1.7.3 Agricultural production hinder adaptation through planning, including limited resources, lack of information, competing planning agen- A significant effect of global climate change is the al- das and complying with requirements from other levels of tering of global rainfall patterns, with certain effects on government.[57] Examples of adaptation include defend- agriculture.[65] Rainfed agriculture constitutes 80% of ing against rising sea levels through better flood defenses, global agriculture. Many of the 852 million poor peo- and changing patterns of land use like avoiding more vul- ple in the world live in parts of Asia and Africa that de- nerable areas for housing. pend on rainfall to cultivate food crops. As the global Planning for rising sea levels is one of the key challenges population swells, more food will be needed, but climate for local planning in response to climate change. Many variability is likely to make successful farming more dif- national governments around the world have attempted ficult. Extended drought can cause the failure of small to address the problem of rising sea levels through pol- and marginal farms with resultant economic, political and icy and planning reforms designed to increase adaptive social disruption. However, such events have previously capacity.[58] In the United States, many state and lo- occurred in human history independent of global climate cal governments are now assessing innovative, locality- change. In recent decades, global trade has created dis- specific options for sea-level rise adaptation.[59][60] Al- tribution networks capable of delivering surplus food to [65] though adaptation planning occurs through a variety of where it is needed, thus reducing local impact. processes, local adaptation initiatives in the U.S. often pass through three stages of adaptation planning: 1) building community awareness of sea level rise as a lo- Drought tolerant crop varieties cal risk, 2) undertaking a scientific assessment of these risks in the medium and long-terms, and 3) using a pub- Agriculture of any kind is strongly influenced by the avail- lic process to develop an adaptation plan and supportive ability of water. Climate change will modify rainfall, policies.[61] evaporation, runoff, and soil moisture storage. Changes in total seasonal precipitation or in its pattern of variability are both important. The occurrence of moisture stress 1.7.2 Enhancing adaptive capacity during flowering, pollination, and grain-filling is harmful to most crops and particularly so to corn, soybeans, In a literature assessment, Smit et al. (2001) concluded and wheat. Increased evaporation from the soil and ac- that enhanced adaptive capacity would reduce vulnerabil- celerated transpiration in the plants themselves will cause ity to climate change.[62] In their view, activities that en- moisture stress. As a result, there will be a need to de- hance adaptive capacity are essentially equivalent to ac- velop crop varieties with greater drought tolerance. tivities that promote sustainable development. These activities include:[63] More spending on irrigation • improving access to resources The demand for water for irrigation is projected to rise • reducing poverty in a warmer climate, bringing increased competition between agriculture—already the largest consumer of wa- • lowering inequities of resources and wealth among ter resources in semi-arid regions—and urban as well groups as industrial users. Falling water tables and the result- • improving education and information ing increase in the energy needed to pump water will make the practice of irrigation more expensive, partic- • improving infrastructure ularly when with drier conditions more water will be required per acre. Other strategies will be needed to make • improving institutional capacity and efficiency the most efficient use of water resources. For example, • Promoting local indigenous practices, knowledge, the International Water Management Institute has sug- and experiences gested five strategies that could help Asia feed its growing population in light of climate change. These are: Researchers at the Overseas Development Institute found that development interventions to increase adaptive ca- • modernising existing irrigation schemes to suit mod- pacity have tended not to result in increased agency for ern methods of farming 1.7. METHODS OF ADAPTATION 7

• Supporting farmers’ efforts to find their own water TION” as well as “GUIDELINES FOR THE PLAN- supplies, by tapping into groundwater in a sustain- NING OF WEATHER MODIFICATION ACTIVI- able way TIES” in 2007, stating among others that “Purposeful augmentation of precipitation, reduction of hail damage, • Looking beyond conventional 'Participatory Irriga- dispersion of fog and other types of cloud and storm mod- tion Management' schemes, by engaging the private ifications by cloud seeding are developing technologies sector which are still striving to achieve a sound scientific foun- • Expanding capacity and knowledge dation and which have to be adapted to enormously varied natural conditions.” [70] • Investing outside the irrigation sector[66] 1.7.5 Damming glacial lakes Forest resources Glacial lake outburst floods may become a bigger con- The forestry resources are most crucial means of adap- cern due to the retreat of glaciers, leaving behind nu- tation to forest dependent people whose lives have been merous lakes that are impounded by often weak terminal depending on it. If long duration of drought persist, defi- moraine dams. In the past, the sudden failure of these nitely affect to rain-fed agricultural system. In this situa- dams has resulted in localized property damage, injury tion, people can collect the edible fruits, roots and leaves and deaths. Glacial lakes in danger of bursting can have for their life survival. Similarly, forest resources pro- their moraines replaced with concrete dams (which may vides not only goods but also services such as regulation also provide hydroelectric power).[71] of ecosystem, maintain linkage of upstream-downstream through watershed conservation, carbon sequestration and aesthetic value. These services become crucial part 1.7.6 Geoengineering of life sustained through increased adaptive capacity of poor, vulnerable, women and socially excluded commu- Main articles: Climate engineering and Solar radiation nities. management

Rainwater storage In a literature assessment, Barker et al. (2007) described geoengineering as a type of mitigation policy.[72] IPCC Providing farmers with access to a range of water stores (2007) concluded that geoengineering options, such as could help them overcome dry spells that would other- ocean fertilization to remove CO2 from the atmosphere, wise cause their crops to fail. Field studies have shown remained largely unproven.[73] It was judged that reliable the effectiveness of small-scale water storage. For ex- cost estimates for geoengineering had not been published. ample, according to the International Water Management The Royal Society (2009) published the findings of a Institute, using small planting basins to 'harvest' water in study into geoengineering. The authors of the study de- Zimbabwe has been shown to boost maize yields, whether fined geoengineering as a “deliberate large-scale interven- rainfall is abundant or scarce. And in Niger, they have led tion in the Earth’s climate system, in order to moderate to three or fourfold increases in millet yields.[67] global warming” (p. ix).[74] According to the study, the safest and most predictable method of moderating cli- 1.7.4 Weather control mate change is early action to reduce GHG emissions. Scientists such as Ken Caldeira and Paul Crutzen,[75] sug- Russian and American scientists have in the past tried gest geoengineering techniques, which can be employed to control the weather, for example by seeding clouds to change the climate deliberately and thus control some with chemicals to try to produce rain when and where of the effects of global warming. These include: it is needed. A new method being developed involves replicating the urban heat island effect, where • Solar radiation management may be seen as an adap- cities are slightly hotter than the countryside because tation to global warming. Techniques such as space they are darker and absorb more heat. This creates sunshade, creating stratospheric sulfur aerosols and 28% more rain 20–40 miles downwind from cities com- painting roofing and paving materials white all fall pared to upwind.[68] On the timescale of several decades, into this category. new weather control techniques may become feasible which would allow control of extreme weather such as • [69] Hydrological geoengineering - typically seeking to hurricanes. preserve sea ice or adjust thermohaline circulation The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) through by using methods such as diverting rivers to keep its Commission for Atmospheric Sciences (CAS) has is- warm water away from sea ice, or tethering icebergs sued a “STATEMENT ON WEATHER MODIFICA- to prevent them drifting into warmer waters and 8 CHAPTER 1. ADAPTATION TO GLOBAL WARMING

melting. This may be seen as an adaptation tech- as a development issue has been inﬂuenced by concerns nique, although by preventing Arctic methane re- around minimising threats to progress on poverty reduc- lease it may also have mitigation aspects as well. tion, notably the MDGs, and by the injustice of impacts that are felt hardest by those who have done least to contribute to the problem, framing adaptation as an equity 1.7.7 Assisting disadvantaged nations and right issue.[78]

In 2000, there was a proposal made at the Sixth Confer- ence of Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Cli- 1.7.8 Migration mate Change that called for the creation of an Adaptation Fund of $1 billion per year for developing countries, es- Recent literature has also put forward the concept of mi- pecially the least developed and small island states, to en- gration as a climate change coping mechanism. Climate able them to combat the consequences of climate change. change push factors are weighed against economic or social pull factors: the role of climate change in migra- Many scientists, policy makers and the IPCC Fourth As- tion is thus not a linear one of cause and effect. Migra- sessment Report have agreed that disadvantaged nations, tion frequently requires would-be migrants to have access especially in the global south need more attention to to social and financial capital, such as support networks the negative impacts of climate change. These regions in the chosen destination, and the funds to be able to are highly populated and people have generally lower move. It is frequently the last adaptive response house- adaptive capacity. A balance, however, between develop- holds will take when confronted with environmental fac- ment and climate change mitigation and adaptation needs tors that threaten their livelihoods, and mostly resorted to to be found. when other mechanisms to cope have proven unsuccess- In the global south, national governments are largely ful. Migration and Climate Change, a UNESCO publica- responsible for formulation and implementation of the tion, explores the dynamics of environmental migration adaptation plan, from local to the national level. In this and the role of migration as an adaptive response to cli- context, a contradictory situation exists. National gov- mate change.[79] ernments attach high priority to development polices and plans—not climate change. Development agendas are driven by pre-existing problems such as poverty, malnu- 1.7.9 Insurance trition, food insecurity,[76] availability of drinking water, indebtness, illiteracy, unemployment, local resource con- One method of climate adaptation is the encouragement flicts, lower technological development etc. Here, it is im- of individual actions to mitigate, spread, or transfer the portant to recognize that if climate change phenomenon risk of damages. Specifically, one existing tool is in- is not properly understood and coping strategies such as surance, for either general catastrophe or actual flood- mitigation and adaptation are not adopted on timely man- ing. The idea is to allow for reactive options to rebuild ner, climate change impacts will exacerbate these pre- communities after adverse impacts from extreme weather existing problems. events.[80] Although it can be preferable to take a proac- tive approach to eliminate the cause of the risk, reactive Hence, there is a need of exploring strategies of integra- [81] tion between the climate change plans and development post-harm compensation can be used as a last resort. Access to reinsurance may be a form of increasing the plans in the global south. This integration should include [82] principles such as social justice and equity, inclusion of resiliency of cities. Where there are failures in the private insurance market, the public sector creates residual marginal population in decision making, women’s par- ticipation and promotion of social cohesion. Inclusion market mechanisms (RMM) to encourage individual risk reduction by subsidizing premiums.[83] A study identified of these principles will not only promote mitigation and adaptation to climate change but will also make develop- key equity issues for policy considerations: ment more distributive. (a) transferring risk to the public purse does not reduce Collaborative research from the Institute of Development overall risk (b) governments can spread the cost of losses Studies draws links between adaptation and poverty to across time rather than space (c) governments can force help develop an agenda for pro-poor adaptation that can home-owners in low risk areas to cross-subsidize the in- inform climate-resilient poverty reduction. Adaptation to surance premiums of those in high risk areas (d) cross- climate change will be “ineffective and inequitable if it subsidization is increasingly difficult for private sector insurers operating in a competitive market, and (e) govern- fails to learn and build upon an understanding of the mul- [84] tidimensional and differentiated nature of poverty and ments can tax people to pay for tomorrow’s disaster. vulnerability”.[77] Poorer countries tend to be more seri- Government-subsidized insurance, such as the U.S. Na- ously affected by climate change, yet have reduced assets tional Flood Insurance Program, is criticized for provid- and capacities with which to adapt. This has led to more ing a perverse incentive to develop properties in haz- activities to integrate adaptation within development and ardous areas, thereby increasing overall risk.[85] This be- poverty reduction programmes. The rise of adaptation havioral effect may be countered with appropriate land- 1.10. OPPOSITION TO ADAPTION 9

use policies that limit new construction where current or against those threats.[93] Within the state of Florida four future climate risks are perceived and/or encourage the counties (Broward, Miami-Dade, Monroe, Palm Beach) adoption of resilient building codes to mitigate potential have created the Southeast Florida Regional Climate damages.[86] Change Compact in order to coordinate adaptation and mitigation strategies to cope with the impact of climate change on the region.[94] Poorer communities have gotten 1.8 Adaptation finance help with climate adaptation in places like Bangladesh as well.[95][96][97][98] The aggregate of current climate change adaptation pro- National Adaptation Programme of Action grams will not raise enough money to fund adaptation to The United Nations Framework Convention on Cli- [87] climate change. There are, however, several programs mate Change (UNFCCC) helps least developed coun- and proposals to finance adaptation to climate change tries (LDCs) identify climate change adaptation needs in developing countries. The United Nations Frame- by funding the development of National Adaptation Pro- work Convention on Climate Change runs a program gramme of Action (NAPA). NAPAs are meant to provide called the Global Environmental Facility, which provides LDCs with an opportunity to identify their “urgent and some funding for adaptation to least developed countries immediate needs” for adapting to climate change.[99] As [88] and small island states. Under the GEF umbrella, the part of the NAPA process, LDC government ministries, GEF Trust Fund, the Least Developed Countries Fund typically assisted by development agencies, assess their (LDCF), and the Special Climate Change Fund (SCCF) countries’ vulnerability to climate change and extreme operate to carry out the climate change adaptation financ- weather events. They then develop a prioritized list of [88] ing goals of the GEF. Another mechanism has been adaptation projects that will help the country cope with implemented through the Adaptation Fund, as a result the adverse effects of climate change. LDCs that submit of negotiations during COP15 and COP16, which pro- NAPAs to the UNFCCC then become eligible for fund- vides funds for projects that prove to have additional ben- ing through the Least Developed Countries Fund (LDC efits for adaptation to climate change. There are sev- Fund) for NAPA projects. The LDC Fund was designed eral other climate change adaptation finance proposals, through the UNFCCC to specifically assist least devel- most of which employ official development assistance or oped countries, as they are particularly vulnerable to the [7] ODA. These proposals range from a World Bank pro- effects of climate change.[100] To date, forty five LDCs gram, to proposals involving auctioning of carbon al- have written and submitted NAPAs to the UNFCCC, lowances, to a global carbon or transportation tax, to with Nepal as the latest country to submit its NAPA [7] compensation-based funding. Other proposals suggest in November 2010.[101] Three more countries (Angola, using market-based mechanisms, rather than ODA, such Myanmar, and Timor Leste) are scheduled to complete as the Higher Ground Foundation’s vulnerability reduc- their NAPAs by the end of 2011.[102] tion credit (VRC™)[89] or a program similar to the Clean Development Mechanism,[90] to raise private money for climate change adaptation. The Copenhagen Accord, the most recent global climate change agreement, com- 1.10 Opposition to adaption mits developed countries to goal of sending $100 billion per year to developing countries in assistance for climate According to Al Gore, writing in 1992 in Earth in the [103] change mitigation and climate change adaptation through Balance, adaption represented a “kind of laziness, an 2020.[91] This agreement, while not binding, would dwarf arrogant faith in our ability to react in time to save our [104] current amounts dedicated to adaptation in developing skins”. countries. This climate change fund is called the Green Climate Fund from the 2010 United Nations Climate Change Conference.[92] 1.11 See also

• Adaptation to climate change in Jordan 1.9 Adaptation measures by coun- • Bali Road Map try • Climate bond Numerous countries, including Australia, have held in- • Climate change denial quiries into and have planned or started adaptation mea- • sures. The state of California has also issued a docu- Climate Vulnerability Monitor ment titled “2009 California Climate Adaptation Strat- • Eﬀects of climate change on humans egy Discussion Draft” that summarizes the best known science on climate change impacts in seven speciﬁc sec- • Collaboratory for Adaptation to Climate Change tors and provides recommendations on how to manage from University of Notre Dame 10 CHAPTER 1. ADAPTATION TO GLOBAL WARMING

• Gary Tabor, catalyst of large landscape conserva- Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change tion and wildlife corridors as an adaptive solution (B. Metz et al. (eds.)). Print version: Cambridge Univer- to global warming sity Press, Cambridge, UK, and New York, N.Y., U.S.A.. This version: IPCC website. ISBN 978-0-521-88011-4. • ICLEI Local Governments for Sustainability Archived from the original on 3 May 2010. Retrieved 2010-04-23. • ICLEI Local Governments for Sustainability USA [10] [url=http://unfccc.int/essential_background/ glossary/items/3666.php “UNFCCC Glossary of Climate • Large Cities Climate Leadership Group Change Acronyms"]. Accessed October 24, 2010

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[58] For a summary of selected government responses [67] Diverse water sources key to food security: report, Reuters, from a range of jurisdictions, see: Antarc- September 5, 2010 tic, Climate and Ecosystems CRC (2011), University of Tasmania – Hobart, Australia, [68] Fuchs, Dale (2005-06-28). “Spain goes hi-tech to beat http://www.acecrc.org.au/access/repository/resource/ drought”. The Guardian (London). Archived from the 86d7f302-1512-102f-a3d0-40404adc5e91 original on 30 May 2010. Retrieved 2010-04-23. 1.12. REFERENCES 13

[69] Lloyd de Vries (2004-10-29). “Sapping A Hurricane’s [83] McAneney, J, Crompton, R, McAneney, D, Musulin, R, Strength, Research Under Way, But Actual Applications Walker, G & Pielke Jr, R 2013, “Market-based mech- Still Decades Away”. CBS News. Retrieved 2010-08-29. anisms for climate change adaptation: Assessing the potential for and limits to insurance and market based [70] WMO DOCUMENTS ON WEATHER MODIFI- mechanisms for encouraging climate change adaptation.” CATION APPROVED BY THE COMMISSION National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility, FOR ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES MANAGEMENT Gold Coast, 99 pp. GROUP,SECOND SESSION, OSLO, NORWAY, 24-26 SEPTEMBER 2007 [84] McAneney, et al. 2013, p.99

[71] animana.org [85] Holloway, J.M.; Burby, R.J. (1990). “The eﬀects of ﬂood- plain development controls on residential land values”. [72] Barker, T. (2007). 11.2.2 Ocean fertilization and other Land Economics 66 (3): 259–271. geo-engineering options. In (book chapter): Mitigation from a cross-sectoral perspective. In: Climate Change [86] Bagstad, Kenneth J.; Stapleton, K.; D'Agostino, 2007: Mitigation. Contribution of Working Group III to the J.R. (2007). “Taxes, subsidies, and insurance Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel as drivers of United States coastal develop- on Climate Change (B. Metz et al. (eds.)). Print version: ment”. Ecological Economics 63: 285–298. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, and New doi:10.1016/j.ecolecon.2006.09.019. York, N.Y., U.S.A.. This version: IPCC website. ISBN 978-0-521-88011-4. Archived from the original on 29 [87] “United Nations Framework Convention on Climate March 2010. Retrieved 2010-04-05. Change, Investment and Financial Flows to Address Cli- mate Change, Executive Summary ¶ 11” (PDF). Re- [73] IPCC (2007). C. Mitigation in the short and medium term trieved 2010-10-24. (until 2030). In (book section): Summary for Policymak- ers. In: Climate Change 2007: Mitigation. Contribution of [88] “UNFCCC Adaptation”. Archived from the original on Working Group III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the 29 April 2010. Retrieved 2010-04-25. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (B. Metz et al. (eds.)). Print version: Cambridge University Press, Cam- [89] “Financing Climate Adaptation Measures Using a Credit bridge, UK, and New York, N.Y., U.S.A.. This version: Trading Mechanism: Initial Considerations” (PDF). Re- IPCC website. ISBN 978-0-521-88011-4. Archived from trieved 2010-09-21. the original on 2 May 2010. Retrieved 2010-05-15. [90] Matthew Baca, Call for a Pilot Program for Market-Based [74] Royal Society (September 2009). Summary. In (docu- Adaptation Funding, retrieved 2010-10-24 ment): Geoengineering the climate: science, governance and uncertainty. RS Policy document 10/09. The [91] Conference of the Parties to the Framework Convention on UK Royal Society’s website. ISBN 978-0-85403-773-5. Climate Change. Copenhagen. December 7–18, 2009. Archived from the original on 3 May 2010. Retrieved un document= FCCC/CP/2009/L.7. Archived from the 2010-05-15. original on 18 October 2010. Retrieved 2010-10-24.

[75] Robert Kunzig (October 2008). “Geoengineering: How [92] “Transitional Committee for the design of the Green Cli- to Cool Earth--At a Price”. Scientific American. Re- mate Fund”. Unfccc.int. Retrieved 2011-11-18. trieved 15 January 2009. [93] “California Climate Adaptation Strategy”. Archived from [76] “Chapter 2. Food security: concepts and measure- the original on 6 August 2009. Retrieved 2009-08-07. ment[21]". Fao.org. Archived from the original on 26 August 2010. Retrieved 2010-08-29. [94] “Southeast Florida Climate Change Compact”. Retrieved 2014-01-20. [77] Poverty in a Changing Climate IDS Bulletin 39(4):2, September 2008 [95] “poor communities get help with climate adaptation: float- ing gardens”. [78] Poverty in a Changing Climate IDS Bulletin 39(4), September 2008 [96] “The Global Campaign for Climate Action”. TckTckTck. 2011-04-16. Retrieved 2011-11-18. [79] Source: Unescopress. ""Migration and Climate Change” A UNESCO publication on one of the greatest challenges [97] “Climate talks end with modest steps, no Kyoto deal”. facing our time | United Nations Educational, Scientific Reuters. 2010-12-12. and Cultural Organization”. Unesco.org. Retrieved 2011- 11-18. [98] Spence, Chris. “UNFCCC Publishes Green Climate Fund Documents - Climate Change Policy & Practice”. [80] Duus-Otterström, Göran; Jagers, Sverker C. (2011). Climate-l.iisd.org. Retrieved 2011-11-18. “Why (most) Climate Insurance Schemes are a Bad Idea”. Environmental Politics 20 (3): 322–339. [99] “UNFCCC Conference of the Parties, Seventh Meeting” (PDF). [81] Duus 2011, p.323 [100] “UNFCCC Conference of the Parties, Article 4.9”. [82] “Mind the risk: cities under threat from natural disasters”. SwissRe. Retrieved 2014-09-30. [101] “UNFCCC, NAPAs Received by the Secretariat.”. 14 CHAPTER 1. ADAPTATION TO GLOBAL WARMING

[102] “Global Environment Facility, Least Developed Countries 1.13.3 Other government sources Fund”. Several countries have taken a lead in climate vulnerabil- [103] Albert Gore (January 21, 1992). Earth in the Balance: ity assessment and adaptation planning. Their web sites Ecology and the Human Spirit (hardcover). Houghton contain reports, strategies, and tools which other coun- Miﬄin. pp. 239, 240. ISBN 0395578213. tries can customize to their own situation. [104] Pielke, Roger; Prins, Gwyn; Rayner, Steve; Sarewitz, Daniel (2007-02-08). “Lifting the taboo on adaptation” • The United Kingdom’s Climate Impacts Programme (PDF). Nature 445: 597–8. doi:10.1038/445597a. Re- (UKCIP) trieved 2012-08-09. Al Gore forcefully declared his op- • position to adaptation in 1992, explaining that it repre- Australia sented a “kind of laziness, an arrogant faith in our ability • Canada to react in time to save our skins”. • The Canadian National Assessment: From Impacts to Adaptation: Canada in a Changing Climate 2007 1.13 Sources discusses current and future risks and opportunities that climate change presents to Canada, with a focus on human and managed systems. 1.13.1 Relevant IPCC reports

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 1.13.4 Other relevant sources produced two separate reports: Climate Change 2001: Mitigation and Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adapta- In addition to government and United Nations reports, an tion and Vulnerability extensive research literature assesses options for response to global warming. Much of this literature addresses the potential economic costs associated with diﬀerent strate- 1.13.2 Relevant United States sources gies.

• US Global Change Research Program • The World Bank has worked with developing countries to support adaptation planning since 1999. It • US National Assessment—Preparing for a Chang- has also analyzed how to mainstream adaptation ing Climate report planning into its loan and grant programs. This page has publications to download • California Regional Assessment: Preparing for Cli- mate Change: The Potential Consequences of Cli- • The World Bank is also working on a Regional Pro- mate Variability and Change for California (not on gram to Reduce the Vulnerability of Agricultural Federal site) 2002 Systems to Climate Change in the Europe and Cen- tral Asia Region • The US Office of Technology Assessment (OTA) • The Asian Development Bank has a series of studies published two reports containing detailed assess- on the Economics of Climate Change in the Asia- ments of mitigation and adaptation strategies Pacific region. The studies provide cost analysis of • “Changing by Degrees” investigates options both adaptation and mitigation measures. for controlling emissions of carbon dioxide, • Indigo Development has a page of links to govern- the most troublesome anthropogenic green- ment and research web sites on climate adaptation house gas (OTA 1991). • Oxfam has issued a report detailing the need for • “Preparing for an Uncertain Climate” exam- high emissions countries to support adaptation in ines how managed natural resource systems— developing countries: Adapting to climate change, such as water, agriculture, and forests—might What’s needed in poor countries, and who should adapt to changing environmental conditions pay Oxfam Briefing Paper 104 brought about by global warming (OTA 1993). • The Eldis platform, run by the Institute of Develop- • Adaptation Clearinghouse of the Georgetown Cli- ment Studies at the University of Sussex has litera- mate Center ture on adaptation and sustainable development

• “National Fish, Wildlife and Plants Climate Adap- • The WEAP (Water Evaluation And Planning sys- tation Strategy” 2012 tem) assists water resources researchers and planners in assessing impacts of and adaptations to cli- • Summary brochure mate change. 1.13. SOURCES 15

• The weADAPT platform encourages the collabora- • “Water Allocation in a Changing Climate: Institu- tive development of tools for adaptation and sharing tions and Adaptation” Springer Netherlands, ISSN experiences from adaptation projects 0165-0009 (Paper) 1573-1480 (Online) Volume 35, Number 2, February 1997. pp. 157 – 177. • The UNDP runs the adaptation learning mechanism which provides country case studies of adaptation. • Risks, opportunities, and adaptation to climate change Joel D. Scheraga, Anne E. Grambsch, • The UN-CECAR research and development of United States Environmental Protection Agency. courses on climate change and adaptation • McMichael et al. (2003). Climate Change and Hu- • The UNFCCC has a database on local adaptation man Health – Risk and Responses. WHO, UNEP, measures and information on the international cli- WMO, Geneva. ISBN 92-4-159081-5. mate negotiations • Müller, B. (2002) Equity in Climate Change. The • “Economic Approaches to Greenhouse Warming” Great Divide. Oxford Institute for Energy Studies . provides a summary of Yale economist William Oxford, UK Nordhaus' ideas (1991). Nordhaus questions • the motivation for countries to pursue relatively House of Lords Select Committee on Economic Af- costly measures for responding to global warm- fairs, 2nd Report of Session 2005-6 The Economics ing given current scientific uncertainty about the of Climate Change. Volume I: Report pdf problem’s magnitude and estimates potential eco- • Rivington M, Matthews KB, Buchan K and Miller D nomic impacts may not be that high, particularly for (2005) “An integrated assessment approach to in- developed economies. vestigate options for mitigation and adaptation to climate change at the farm-scale”, NJF Seminar • Economist William R. Cline offers an opposing 380, Odense, Denmark, 7–8 November 2005, via view, arguing potential economic costs of unabated Macaulay Institute's Land Allocation Decision Sup- global warming could be very high. In the mono- port System. graph, “Global Warming: The Economic Stakes”, Cline (1992) assesses the potential cost of damages • Ludwig, Fulco, Pavel Kabat, Henk van Schaik and from global warming and the cost of efforts to con- Michael van der Valk (2009) Climate Change Adap- trol greenhouse gas emissions. tation in the Water Sector, Earthscan, London, 320 pp, ISBN 978-1-84407-652-9. • “Coping with Global Climate Change: The Role of Adaptation in the United States” Pew Center on • Amy Seidl Finding Higher Ground: Adaptation in Global Climate Change, June 2004. the Age of Warming Beacon Press (June 7, 2011) ISBN 978-0-8070-8598-1 • National Center for Policy Analysis “Living with Global Warming”. • Publications by the Co-operative Programme on Water and Climate (CPWC) • “Adaptation to Global Warming” James Titus

• “Climate’s Long-Lost Twin” Richard Monastersky

• Heintz Foundation, 2007 A Survey of Climate Change Adaptation Planning pdf

• “Adapt or Die: The Science, Politics and Economics of Climate Change” Proﬁle Books, December 2003 ISBN 1-86197-795-6

• USDA Economic Research Service Economics of Sequestering Carbon in the U.S. Agricultural Sector

• USDA Economic Research Service Agricultural Adaptation to Climate Change: Issues of Longrun Sustainability

• USDA Economic Research Service World Agricul- ture and Climate Change: Economic Adaptations

• “Policy Implications of Greenhouse Warming.” United States National Academy of Sciences, 1991. Chapter 2

Eﬀects of global warming

This article is primarily about effects during the 21st consensus that climate change is occurring, and that hu- century. For longer-term effects, see Long-term effects man activities are the primary driver.[1] Many impacts of global warming. of climate change have already been observed, including glacier retreat,[2] changes in the timing of seasonal events[2] (e.g., earlier flowering of plants),[3] and changes in agricultural productivity.[2] Future effects of climate change will vary depending on climate change policies[4] and social development.[5] The two main policies to address climate change are reducing human greenhouse gas emissions (climate change mitigation) and adapting to the impacts of climate change.[6] Geoengineering is another policy option.[6] Near-term climate change policies could significantly affect long-term climate change impacts.[7][4] Stringent mitigation policies might be able to limit global warming (in 2100) to around 2 °C or below, relative to pre- industrial levels.[8] Without mitigation, increased energy demand and extensive use of fossil fuels[9] might lead to global warming of around 4 °C.[10][11] Higher magnitudes of global warming would be more difficult to adapt to,[12] and would increase the risk of negative impacts.[13]

Summary of climate change impacts. 2.1 Deﬁnitions

See also: attribution of recent climate change

In this article, "climate change" means a change in climate that persists over a sustained period of time.[14][15] The World Meteorological Organization defines this time period as 30 years.[14] Examples of climate change include increases in global surface temperature (global warming), changes in rainfall patterns, and changes in the frequency of extreme weather events. Changes in climate may be due to natural causes, e.g., changes in the sun's output, or due to human activities, e.g., changing the composition of the atmosphere.[16] Any human-induced changes in climate will occur against a background of nat- Projected global warming in 2100 for a range of emission sce- ural climatic variations[16] and of variations in human ac- narios. tivity such as population growth on shores or in arid areas [17] The effects of global warming are the environmental which increase or decrease climate vulnerability. and social changes caused (directly or indirectly) by hu- Also, the term “anthropogenic forcing” refers to the in- man emissions of greenhouse gases. There is a scientific fluence exerted on a habitat or chemical environment by

16 2.2. TEMPERATURE CHANGES 17 humans, as opposed to a natural process.[18] sions scenarios that have been developed by the scientiﬁc community.[22][25] In the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, changes in future 2.2 Temperature changes global mean temperature were projected using the six SRES “marker” emissions scenarios.[26] Emissions pro- Global Land–Ocean Temperature Index jections for the six SRES “marker” scenarios are repre- sentative of the full set of forty SRES scenarios.[27] For 0.6 the lowest emissions SRES marker scenario (“B1” - see Annual Mean the SRES article for details on this scenario), the best 0.4 5‐year Running Mean estimate for global mean temperature is an increase of 1.8 °C (3.2 °F)[26] by the end of the 21st century. This 0.2 projection is relative to global temperatures at the end of the 20th century.[28] The “likely” range (greater than 66% 0 probability, based on expert judgement)[29] for the SRES B1 marker scenario is 1.1–2.9 °C (2.0–5.2 °F).[26] For

−Temperature Anomaly (°C) 0.2 the highest emissions SRES marker scenario (A1FI), the best estimate for global mean temperature increase is 4.0 −0.4 °C (7.2 °F), with a “likely” range of 2.4–6.4 °C (4.3–11.5 [26] 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 °F). Global mean surface temperature change since 1880, The range in temperature projections partly reflects (1) relative to the 1951–1980 mean. Source: NASA GISS the choice of emissions scenario, and (2) the "climate sensitivity".[23]:22–24 For (1), different scenarios make different assumptions of future social and economic development (e.g., economic growth, population level, energy policies), which in turn affects projections of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.[23]:22–24 The projected magnitude of warming by 2100 is closely related to the level of cumulative emissions over the 21st century (i.e. total emissions between 2000-2100).[30] The higher the cumulative emissions over this time period, the greater the level of The graph above shows the average of a set of tem- warming is projected to occur.[30] perature simulations for the 20th century (black line), followed by projected temperatures for the 21st century (2) reflects uncertainty in the response of the climate sys- based on three greenhouse gas emissions scenarios tem to past and future GHG emissions, which is measured (colored lines).[19] by the climate sensitivity).[23]:22–24 Higher estimates of climate sensitivity lead to greater projected warming, while lower estimates of climate sensitivity lead to less This article breaks down some of the impacts of cli- projected warming.[31] mate change according to different levels of future global warming. This way of describing impacts has, Over the next several millennia, projections suggest that for instance, been used in the IPCC (Intergovernmental global warming could be irreversible.[32] Even if emis- Panel on Climate Change) Assessment Reports on cli- sions were drastically reduced, global temperatures would mate change.[20] The instrumental temperature record remain close to their highest level for at least 1,000 years shows global warming of around 0.6 °C during the 20th (see the later section on irreversibilities).[33][34] century.[21] 2.2.2 Projected warming in context 2.2.1 SRES emissions scenarios Scientists have used various “proxy” data to assess past The future level of global warming is uncertain, but a changes in Earth’s climate (paleoclimate).[36] Sources of wide range of estimates (projections) have been made.[22] proxy data include historical records (such as farmers' The IPCC’s "SRES" scenarios have been frequently used logs), tree rings, corals, fossil pollen, ice cores, and ocean to make projections of future climate change.[23]:22–24 and lake sediments.[36] Analysis of these data suggest that The SRES scenarios are "baseline" (or “reference”) sce- recent warming is unusual in the past 400 years, possibly narios, which means that they do not take into account any longer.[37] By the end of the 21st century, temperatures current or future measures to limit GHG emissions (e.g., may increase to a level not experienced since the mid- the UNFCCC’s Kyoto Protocol and the Cancún agree- Pliocene, around 3 million years ago.[38] At that time, ments).[24] Emissions projections of the SRES scenarios models suggest that mean global temperatures were about are broadly comparable in range to the baseline emis- 2–3 °C warmer than pre-industrial temperatures.[38] Even 18 CHAPTER 2. EFFECTS OF GLOBAL WARMING a 2 °C rise above the pre-industrial level would be out- Human-induced warming could lead to large-scale, irre- side the range of temperatures experienced by human versible, and/or abrupt changes in physical systems.[47][48] civilization.[35][39] An example of this is the melting of ice sheets, which contributes to sea level rise.[49] The probability of warming having unforeseen consequences increases with the rate, 2.3 Physical impacts magnitude, and duration of climate change.[50]

Main article: Physical impacts of climate change 2.3.1 Eﬀects on weather A broad range of evidence shows that the climate system Observations show that there have been changes in weather.[51] As climate changes, the probabilities of certain types of weather events are aﬀected.

Projected change in annual average precipitation by the end of the 21st century, based on a medium emissions scenario (SRES A1B) (Credit: NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory).[52][53]

Changes have been observed in the amount, intensity, frequency, and type of precipitation.[23]:18 Widespread increases in heavy precipitation have occurred, even in places where total rain amounts have decreased. With medium confidence (see footnote 1), IPCC (2012)[54] concluded that human influences had contributed to an increase in heavy precipitation events at the global scale. Projections of future changes in precipitation show overall increases in the global average, but with substantial [23]:24 This set of graphs show changes in climate indicators over several shifts in where and how precipitation falls. Projec- decades. Each of the different colored lines in each panel repre- tions suggest a reduction in rainfall in the subtropics, and sents an independently analyzed set of data. The data come from an increase in precipitation in subpolar latitudes and some many different technologies including weather stations, satellites, equatorial regions.[53] In other words, regions which are weather balloons, ships and buoys.[41] dry at present will in general become even drier, while regions that are currently wet will in general become even has warmed.[42] Evidence of global warming is shown in wetter.[53] This projection does not apply to every locale, the graphs opposite. Some of the graphs show a posi- and in some cases can be modified by local conditions.[53] tive trend, e.g., increasing temperature over land and the ocean, and sea level rise. Other graphs show a negative trend, e.g., decreased snow cover in the Northern Hemi- Extreme weather sphere, and declining Arctic sea ice extent. Evidence of warming is also apparent in living (biological) systems.[43] See also: Extreme weather and Tropical cyclone § Global Human activities have contributed to a number of the ob- warming served changes in climate.[44] This contribution has principally been through the burning of fossil fuels, which has Over most land areas since the 1950s, it is very likely that led to an increase in the concentration of GHGs in the there have been fewer or warmer cold days and nights.[55] atmosphere.[45] Another human influence on the climate Hot days and nights have also very likely become warmer are sulfur dioxide emissions, which are a precursor to the or more frequent.[55] Human activities have very likely formation of sulfate aerosols in the atmosphere.[46] contributed to these trends.[55] There may have been 2.3. PHYSICAL IMPACTS 19 changes in other climate extremes (e.g., floods, droughts and tropical cyclones) but these changes are more difficult to identify.[55] Projections suggest changes in the frequency and intensity of some extreme weather events.[55] Confidence in projections varies over time.[55]

Near-term projections (2016–2035)

Some changes (e.g., more frequent hot days) will probably be evident in the near term, while other near-term changes (e.g., more intense droughts and tropical cyclones) are more uncertain.[55] A map of the change in thickness of mountain glaciers since 1970. Thinning in orange and red, thickening in blue. Long-term projections (2081–2100)

Future climate change will be associated with more very hot days and fewer very cold days.[55] The frequency, length and intensity of heat waves will very likely increase over most land areas.[55] Higher growth in anthropogenic GHG emissions will be associated with larger increases in the frequency and severity of temperature extremes.[56] Assuming high growth in GHG emissions (IPCC scenario RCP8.5), presently dry regions may be aﬀected by an increase in the risk of drought and reductions in soil moisture.[57] Over most of the mid-latitude land masses A map that shows ice concentration on 16 September 2012, along and wet tropical regions, extreme precipitation events will with the extent of the previous record low (yellow line) and the very likely become more intense and frequent.[55] mid-September median extent (black line) setting a new record low that was 18 percent smaller than the previous record and nearly 50 percent smaller than the long-term (1979-2000) aver- Tropical cyclones age.

At the global scale, the frequency of tropical cyclones [66] will probably decrease or be unchanged.[58] Global mean Solomon et al. (2007) assessed the potential impacts tropical cyclone maximum wind speed and precipitation of climate change on summertime Arctic sea ice ex- rates will likely increase.[58] Changes in tropical cyclones tent. Assuming high growth in greenhouse gas emissions will probably vary by region, but these variations are (SRES A2), some models projected that Arctic sea ice uncertain.[58] in the summer could largely disappear by the end of the 21st century.[66] More recent projections suggest that the Arctic summers could be ice-free (defined as ice extent Effects of climate extremes less than 1 million square km) as early as 2025-2030.[67] During the 21st century, glaciers[68] and snow cover are The impacts of extreme events on the environment projected to continue their widespread retreat.[69] In the and human society will vary. Some impacts will be western mountains of North America, increasing temper- beneficial—e.g., fewer cold extremes will probably lead atures and changes in precipitation are projected to lead to fewer cold deaths.[59] Overall, however, impacts will to reduced snowpack.[70] Snowpack is the seasonal ac- probably be mostly negative.[60][61] cumulation of slow-melting snow.[71] The melting of the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets could contribute 2.3.2 Cryosphere to sea level rise, especially over long time-scales (see the section on Greenland and West Antarctic Ice sheets).[49] See also: Retreat of glaciers since 1850 Changes in the cryosphere are projected to have social The cryosphere is made up of areas of the Earth which impacts.[72] For example, in some regions, glacier retreat are covered by snow or ice.[62] Observed changes in the could increase the risk of reductions in seasonal water cryosphere include declines in Arctic sea ice extent,[63] availability.[73] Barnett et al. (2005)[74] estimated that the widespread retreat of alpine glaciers,[64] and reduced more than one-sixth of the world’s population rely on snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere.[65] glaciers and snowpack for their water supply. 20 CHAPTER 2. EFFECTS OF GLOBAL WARMING

2.3.3 Oceans measured as a change in pH. The uptake of human carbon emissions since the year 1750 has led to an average de- Main article: Effects of global warming on oceans crease in pH of 0.1 units.[79] Projections using the SRES emissions scenarios suggest a further reduction in average The role of the oceans in global warming is complex. The global surface ocean pH of between 0.14 and 0.35 units oceans serve as a sink for carbon dioxide, taking up much over the 21st century. that would otherwise remain in the atmosphere, but in- The effects of ocean acidification on the marine biosphere creased levels of CO have yet to be documented.[79] Laboratory experiments 2 have led to ocean acidification. Furthermore, as the suggest beneficial effects for a few species, with poten- temperature of the oceans increases, they become less tially highly detrimental effects for a substantial number able to absorb excess CO of species.[78] With medium confidence, Fischlin et al. 2. The ocean have also acted as a sink in absorbing ex- (2007)[80] projected that future ocean acidification and tra heat from the atmosphere.[75]:4 The increase in ocean climate change would impair a wide range of planktonic heat content is much larger than any other store of energy and shallow benthic marine organisms that use aragonite in the Earth’s heat balance over the two periods 1961 to to make their shells or skeletons, such as corals and ma- 2003 and 1993 to 2003, and accounts for more than 90% rine snails (pteropods), with significant impacts particu- of the possible increase in heat content of the Earth sys- larly in the Southern Ocean. tem during these periods.[76]

Global warming is projected to have a number of effects Oxygen depletion on the oceans. Ongoing effects include rising sea levels due to thermal expansion and melting of glaciers and ice The amount of oxygen dissolved in the oceans may de- sheets, and warming of the ocean surface, leading to in- cline, with adverse consequences for ocean life.[81][82] creased temperature stratification. Other possible effects include large-scale changes in ocean circulation. Sea level rise

Acidiﬁcation Main article: Current sea level rise There is strong evidence that global sea level rose grad- Main article: Ocean acidiﬁcation About one-third of the carbon dioxide emitted by hu-

This map shows changes in the amount of aragonite dissolved in ocean surface waters between the 1880s and the most recent decade (2003-2012).[77] Historical modeling suggests that since the 1880s, increased CO has led to lower aragonite saturation 2 Trends in global average absolute sea level, 1870-2008.[83] levels (less availability of minerals) in the oceans around the world.[77] The largest decreases in aragonite saturation have oc- [84] curred in tropical waters.[77] However, decreases in cold areas ually over the 20th century. With high confidence, [85] may be of greater concern because colder waters typically have Bindoff et al. (2007) concluded that between the mid- lower aragonite levels to begin with.[77] 19th and mid-20th centuries, the rate of sea level rise increased. Authors of the IPCC Fourth Assessment Syn- man activity has already been taken up by the oceans.[78] thesis Report (IPCC AR4 SYR, 2007)[21] reported that As carbon dioxide dissolves in sea water, carbonic acid between the years 1961 and 2003, global average sea level is formed, which has the effect of acidifying the ocean, rose at an average rate of 1.8 mm per year (mm/yr), with 2.4. REGIONS 21

a range of 1.3–2.3 mm/yr. Between 1993 and 2003, the From 1961 to 2003, the global ocean temperature has rate increased above the previous period to 3.1 mm/yr risen by 0.10 °C from the surface to a depth of 700 (range of 2.4–3.8 mm/yr). Authors of IPCC AR4 SYR m. There is variability both year-to-year and over longer (2007)[21] were uncertain whether the increase in rate time scales, with global ocean heat content observations from 1993 to 2003 was due to natural variations in sea showing high rates of warming for 1991–2003, but some level over the time period, or whether it reflected an in- cooling from 2003 to 2007.[92] The temperature of the crease in the underlying long-term trend. Antarctic Southern Ocean rose by 0.17 °C (0.31 °F) be- There are two main factors that have contributed to ob- tween the 1950s and the 1980s, nearly twice the rate for the world’s oceans as a whole.[93] As well as having ef- served sea level rise.[84] The first is thermal expansion: as ocean water warms, it expands.[86] The second is from the fects on ecosystems (e.g. by melting sea ice, affecting algae that grow on its underside), warming reduces the contribution of land-based ice due to increased melting. The major store of water on land is found in glaciers and ocean’s ability to absorb CO 2. It is likely (greater than 66% probability, based on ice sheets. Anthropogenic forces very likely (greater than [29] 90% probability, based on expert judgement)[29] con- expert judgement) that anthropogenic forcing contributed to sea level rise during the latter half of the 20th tributed to the general warming observed in the upper century.[44] several hundred metres of the ocean during the latter half of the 20th century.[44] There is a widespread consensus that substantial long- term sea level rise will continue for centuries to come.[87] In their Fourth Assessment Report, the IPCC[88] projected sea level rise to the end of the 21st century us- 2.4 Regions ing the SRES emissions scenarios. Across the six SRES marker scenarios, sea level was projected to rise by 18 to Main article: Regional effects of global warming 59 cm (7.1 to 23.2 in), relative to sea level at the end of the 20th century.[89] Thermal expansion is the largest component in these projections, contributing 70-75% of the central estimate for all scenarios.[90] Due to a lack of scientific understanding, this sea level rise estimate does not include all of the possible contributions of ice sheets (see Temperatures across the world in the 1880s (left) and the section on Greenland and West Antarctic Ice sheets). the 1980s (right), as compared to average temperatures An assessment of the scientific literature on climate from 1951 to 1980.[94] change was published in 2010 by the US National Re- search Council (US NRC, 2010).[91] NRC (2010)[91] described the projections in AR4 (i.e. those cited in the above paragraph) as “conservative”, and summarized the results of more recent studies. Cited studies suggested a great deal of uncertainty in projections.[91] A range of projections suggested possible sea level rise by the end of the 21st century of between 0.56 and 2 m, relative to sea levels at the end of the 20th century.[91] Projected changes in average temperatures across the Ocean temperature rise world in the 2050s under three greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions scenarios.[19]

Regional effects of global warming vary in nature. Some are the result of a generalised global change, such as rising temperature, resulting in local effects, such as melting ice. In other cases, a change may be related to a change in a particular ocean current or weather system. In such cases, the regional effect may be disproportionate and will not necessarily follow the global trend. There are three major ways in which global warming will make changes to regional climate: melting or forming ice, changing the hydrological cycle (of evaporation and precipitation) and changing currents in the oceans and air flows in the atmosphere. The coast can also be considered Global ocean heat content from 1955-2012 a region, and will suffer severe impacts from sea level 22 CHAPTER 2. EFFECTS OF GLOBAL WARMING

rise. variability. “Vulnerability” is the degree to which a particular system or sector might be adversely affected by climate change.[103] 2.4.1 Observed impacts The sensitivity of human society to climate change varies. Sectors sensitive to climate change include With very high confidence, Rosenzweig et al. (2007)[43] water resources, coastal zones, human settlements, concluded that physical and biological systems on all and human health. Industries sensitive to climate continents and in most oceans had been affected by re- change include agriculture, fisheries, forestry, energy, cent climate changes, particularly regional temperature construction, insurance, financial services, tourism, and increases. Impacts include earlier leafing of trees and recreation.[104][105] plants over many regions; movements of species to higher latitudes and altitudes in the Northern Hemisphere; changes in bird migrations in Europe, North America and 2.5.1 Food supply Australia; and shifting of the oceans’ plankton and fish from cold- to warm-adapted communities.[95] Main article: Climate change and agriculture The human influence on the climate can be seen in the See also: Food security, Food vs fuel and 2007–2008 geographical pattern of observed warming, with greater world food price crisis temperature increases over land and in polar regions rather than over the oceans.[96]:6 Using models, it is possi- Climate change will impact agriculture and food produc- ble to identify the human “signal” of global warming over tion around the world due to: the effects of elevated CO both land and ocean areas.[96]:6 2 in the atmosphere, higher temperatures, altered precipitation and transpiration regimes, increased frequency of 2.4.2 Projected impacts extreme events, and modified weed, pest, and pathogen pressure.[106] In general, low-latitude areas are at most [107] Projections of future climate changes at the regional scale risk of having decreased crop yields. do not hold as high a level of scientific confidence as As of 2007, the effects of regional climate change projections made at the global scale.[96]:9 It is, how- on agriculture have been small.[43] Changes in crop ever, expected that future warming will follow a similar phenology provide important evidence of the response geographical pattern to that seen already, with greatest to recent regional climate change.[108] Phenology is the warming over land and high northern latitudes, and least study of natural phenomena that recur periodically, and over the Southern Ocean and parts of the North Atlantic how these phenomena relate to climate and seasonal Ocean.[97] Nearly all land areas will very likely warm changes.[109] A significant advance in phenology has been more than the global average.[98] observed for agriculture and forestry in large parts of the [43] The Arctic, Africa, small islands and Asian megadeltas Northern Hemisphere. are regions that are likely to be especially affected by cli- [99] mate change. Low-latitude, less-developed areas are Projections at most risk of experiencing negative impacts due to climate change.[100] Developed countries are also vulnerable to climate change.[101] For example, developed countries will be negatively affected by increases in the severity and frequency of some extreme weather events, such as heat waves.[101] In all regions, some people can be particularly at risk from climate change, such as the poor, young children and the elderly.[99][100][102]

2.5 Social systems

Projected changes in crop yields at different latitudes with global Main articles: Effects of climate change on humans and warming. This graph is based on several studies.[110] Climate change, industry and society See also: climate change and gender With low to medium confidence, Schneider et al. (2007)[20] projected that for about a 1 to 3 °C increase in The impacts of climate change can be thought of in terms global mean temperature (by the years 2090-2100, rel- of sensitivity and vulnerability. “Sensitivity” is the degree ative to average temperatures in the years 1990–2000), to which a particular system or sector might be affected, there would be productivity decreases for some cereals positively or negatively, by climate change and/or climate in low latitudes, and productivity increases in high lati- 2.5. SOCIAL SYSTEMS 23

risk of hunger from 2006 levels. The smaller reduction under A2 was attributed to the higher projected future population level in this scenario.

Droughts and agriculture

Some evidence suggests that droughts have been occurring more frequently because of global warming and they are expected to become more frequent and intense in Projected changes in yields of selected crops with global warm- Africa, southern Europe, the Middle East, most of the ing. This graph is based on several studies.[110] Americas, Australia, and Southeast Asia.[115] However, other research suggests that there has been little change in drought over the past 60 years.[116] Their impacts are ag- tudes. With medium conﬁdence, global production po- gravated because of increased water demand, population [20] tential was projected to: growth, urban expansion, and environmental protection eﬀorts in many areas.[117] Droughts result in crop failures • increase up to around 3 °C, and the loss of pasture grazing land for livestock.[118]

• very likely decrease above about 3 °C. 2.5.2 Health Most of the studies on global agriculture assessed by Schneider et al. (2007)[107] had not incorporated a Main article: Effects of global warming on human health number of critical factors, including changes in extreme events, or the spread of pests and diseases. Studies had Human beings are exposed to climate change through also not considered the development of specific practices changing weather patterns (temperature, precipitation, or technologies to aid adaptation to climate change.[107] sea-level rise and more frequent extreme events) and in- The graphs opposite show the projected effects of climate directly through changes in water, air and food qual- change on selected crop yields.[111] Actual changes in ity and changes in ecosystems, agriculture, industry yields may be above or below these central estimates.[111] and settlements and the economy (Confalonieri et al., 2007:393).[59] According to an assessment of the scien- The projections above can be expressed relative to pre- tific literature by Confalonieri et al. (2007:393),[59] the [112] industrial (1750) temperatures. 0.6 °C of warming effects of climate change to date have been small, but are is estimated to have occurred between 1750 and 1990- projected to progressively increase in all countries and re- 2000. Add 0.6 °C to the above projections to convert gions. them from a 1990-2000 to pre-industrial baseline. A study by the World Health Organization (WHO, 2009)[119] estimated the effect of climate change on hu- Food security Easterling et al. (2007)[113] assessed man health. Not all of the effects of climate change were studies that made quantitative projections of climate included in their estimates, for example, the effects of change impacts on food security. It was noted that these more frequent and extreme storms were excluded. Cli- projections were highly uncertain and had limitations. mate change was estimated to have been responsible for However, the assessed studies suggested a number of 3% of diarrhoea, 3% of malaria, and 3.8% of dengue fairly robust findings. The first was that climate change fever deaths worldwide in 2004. Total attributable mor- would likely increase the number of people at risk of tality was about 0.2% of deaths in 2004; of these, 85% hunger compared with reference scenarios with no cli- were child deaths. mate change. Climate change impacts depended strongly on projected future social and economic development. Additionally, the magnitude of climate change impacts Projections was projected to be smaller compared to the impact of With high confidence, authors of the IPCC AR4 Syn- social and economic development. In 2006, the global [120]:48 estimate for the number of people undernourished was thesis report projected that climate change would 820 million.[114] Under the SRES A1, B1, and B2 sce- bring some benefits in temperate areas, such as fewer narios (see the SRES article for information on each sce- deaths from cold exposure, and some mixed effects such nario group), projections for the year 2080 showed a re- as changes in range and transmission potential of malaria duction in the number of people undernourished of about in Africa. Benefits were projected to be outweighed by 560-700 million people, with a global total of undernour- negative health effects of rising temperatures, especially ished people of 100-240 million in 2080. By contrast, the in developing countries. SRES A2 scenario showed only a small decrease in the With very high confidence, Confalonieri et al. 24 CHAPTER 2. EFFECTS OF GLOBAL WARMING

(2007)[59]:393 concluded that economic development estuaries, resulting in a decrease in freshwater availabil- was an important component of possible adaptation to ity for humans and ecosystems in coastal areas. In an climate change. Economic growth on its own, however, assessment of the scientific literature, Kundzewicz et al. was not judged to be sufficient to insulate the world’s (2007)[123] concluded, with high confidence, that: population from disease and injury due to climate change. Future vulnerability to climate change will • the negative impacts of climate change on fresh- depend not only on the extent of social and economic water systems outweigh the benefits. All of the change, but also on how the benefits and costs of change regions assessed in the IPCC Fourth Assessment [121] are distributed in society. For example, in the 19th Report (Africa, Asia, Australia and New Zealand, century, rapid urbanization in western Europe lead to Europe, Latin America, North America, Polar re- [121] a plummeting in population health. Other factors gions (Arctic and Antarctic), and small islands) important in determining the health of populations showed an overall net negative impact of climate include education, the availability of health services, and change on water resources and freshwater ecosys- [59]:393 public-health infrastructure. tems.

• Semi-arid and arid areas are particularly exposed to 2.5.3 Water resources the impacts of climate change on freshwater. With very high conﬁdence, it was judged that many of See also: Water crisis these areas, e.g., the Mediterranean basin, Western A number of climate-related trends have been observed United States, Southern Africa, and north-eastern Brazil, would suﬀer a decrease in water resources due to climate change.

2.5.4 Migration and conﬂict

See also: Environmental migrant

General circulation models project that the future climate change will bring wetter coasts, drier mid-continent areas, and further sea level rise.[124] Such changes could result in the gravest effects of climate change through sudden human migration. Millions might be displaced by shoreline erosions, river and coastal flooding, or severe drought. Migration related to climate change is likely to be predominantly from rural areas in developing countries to towns and cities.[124]:407[125] In the short term climate stress is likely to add incrementally to existing migration patterns rather than generating entirely new flows of people.[125]:110 It has been argued that environmental degradation, loss of access to resources (e.g., water resources),[126] and resulting human migration could become a source of political and even military conflict.[127] Factors other than climate change may, however, be more important in affecting conflict. For example, Wilbanks et al. (2007)[128] Precipitation during the 20th century and up through 2008 during global warming, the NOAA estimating an observed trend over suggested that major environmentally influenced conflicts that period of 1.87% global precipitation increase per century. in Africa were more to do with the relative abundance of resources, e.g., oil and diamonds, than with resource that affect water resources. These include changes in scarcity. Scott et al. (2001) placed only low confidence in predictions of increased conflict due to climate precipitation, the crysosphere and surface waters (e.g., [127] changes in river flows).[122] Observed and projected im- change. pacts of climate change on freshwater systems and their A 2013 study found that significant climatic changes were management are mainly due to changes in temperature, associated with a higher risk of conflict worldwide, and sea level and precipitation variability.[123] Sea level rise predicted that “amplified rates of human conflict could will extend areas of salinization of groundwater and represent a large and critical social impact of anthro- 2.6. BIOLOGICAL SYSTEMS 25 pogenic climate change in both low- and high-income assessment is consistent with the findings of more recent countries.”[129] Similarly, a 2014 study found that higher studies, as reviewed by Hitz and Smith (2004).[140] temperatures were associated with a greater likelihood of Economic impacts are expected to vary violent crime, and predicted that global warming would regionally.[140][141] For a medium increase in global cause millions of such crimes in the United States alone [130] mean temperature (2-3 °C of warming, relative to the during the 21st century. average temperature between 1990–2000), market Military planners are concerned that global warming is sectors in low-latitude and less-developed areas might a “threat multiplier”. “Whether it is poverty, food and experience net costs due to climate change.[20] On the water scarcity, diseases, economic instability, or threat other hand, market sectors in high-latitude and developed of natural disasters, the broad range of changing climatic regions might experience net benefits for this level of conditions may be far reaching. These challenges may warming. A global mean temperature increase above threaten stability in much of the world”.[131] about 2-3 °C (relative to 1990-2000) would very likely result in market sectors across all regions experiencing either declines in net benefits or rises in net costs.[49] 2.5.5 Aggregate impacts Aggregate impacts have also been quantified in non- economic terms. For example, climate change over the Main article: Economic impacts of climate change 21st century is likely to adversely affect hundreds of millions of people through increased coastal flooding, re- Aggregating impacts adds up the total impact of climate ductions in water supplies, increased malnutrition and in- change across sectors and/or regions.[132] Examples of creased health impacts.[61] aggregate measures include economic cost (e.g., changes in gross domestic product (GDP) and the social cost of carbon), changes in ecosystems (e.g., changes over land 2.6 Biological systems area from one type of vegetation to another),[133] human health impacts, and the number of people affected by climate change.[134] Aggregate measures such as economic Main article: Climate change and ecosystems cost require researchers to make value judgements over See also: Extinction risk from global warming, Effect of the importance of impacts occurring in different regions climate change on plant biodiversity, Effects of climate and at different times. change on terrestrial animals and Effects of climate change on marine mammals

Observed impacts

Global losses reveal rapidly rising costs due to ex- 2.6.1 Observed impacts on biological sys- treme weather-related events since the 1970s.[135] Socio- tems economic factors have contributed to the observed trend of global losses, e.g., population growth, increased With very high confidence, Rosenzweig et al. (2007) con- wealth.[136] Part of the growth is also related to regional cluded that recent warming had strongly affected natu- [43] climatic factors, e.g., changes in precipitation and flood- ral biological systems. Hundreds of studies have doc- ing events. It is difficult to quantify the relative im- umented responses of ecosystems, plants, and animals to [142] pact of socio-economic factors and climate change on the climate changes that have already occurred. For the observed trend.[136] The trend does, however, sug- example, in the Northern Hemisphere, species are almost gest increasing vulnerability of social systems to climate uniformly moving their ranges northward and up in ele- [143] change.[136][137] vation in search of cooler temperatures. Humans are very likely causing changes in regional temperatures to which plants and animals are responding.[143] Projected impacts

The total economic impacts from climate change are 2.6.2 Projected impacts on biological sys- highly uncertain.[138] With medium conﬁdence, Smith et tems al. (2001)[139] concluded that world GDP would change by plus or minus a few percent for a small increase in By the year 2100, ecosystems will be exposed to atmo- global mean temperature (up to around 2 °C relative to spheric CO the 1990 temperature level). Most studies assessed by 2 levels substantially higher than in the past 650,000 Smith et al. (2001)[139] projected losses in world GDP years, and global temperatures at least among the high- for a medium increase in global mean temperature (above est of those experienced in the past 740,000 years.[144] 2-3 °C relative to the 1990 temperature level), with in- Signiﬁcant disruptions of ecosystems are projected to creasing losses for greater temperature increases. This increase with future climate change.[145] Examples of 26 CHAPTER 2. EFFECTS OF GLOBAL WARMING

ture exceeds 4 °C above pre-industrial levels, model projections suggested that there could be signiﬁcant extinctions (40-70% of species that were assessed) around the globe.[147] Assessing whether future changes in ecosystems will be beneﬁcial or detrimental is largely based on how ecosystems are valued by human society.[149] For increases in global average temperature exceeding 1.5 to 2.5 °C (relative to global temperatures over the years 1980-1999)[150] and in concomitant atmospheric CO 2 concentrations, projected changes in ecosystems will have predominantly negative consequences for biodiversity and ecosystems goods and services, e.g., water and food supply.[151]

2.7 Abrupt or irreversible changes

Physical, ecological and social systems may respond in an abrupt, non-linear or irregular way to climate change.[152] This is as opposed to a smooth or regular response. A quantitative entity behaves “irregularly” when its dynamics are discontinuous (i.e., not smooth), nondif- A vast array of physical and biological systems across the Earth ferentiable, unbounded, wildly varying, or otherwise ill- [95] are being affected by human-induced global warming. defined.[152] Such behaviour is often termed "singular". Irregular behaviour in Earth systems may give rise to certain thresholds, which, when crossed, may lead to a large disruptions include disturbances such as fire, drought, change in the system. pest infestation, invasion of species, storms, and coral bleaching events. The stresses caused by climate change, Some singularities could potentially lead to severe im- added to other stresses on ecological systems (e.g., land pacts at regional or global scales.[153] Examples of “large- conversion, land degradation, harvesting, and pollution), scale” singularities are discussed in the articles on abrupt threaten substantial damage to or complete loss of some climate change, climate change feedback and runaway unique ecosystems, and extinction of some critically en- climate change. It is possible that human-induced cli- dangered species.[145][146] mate change could trigger large-scale singularities, but the probabilities of triggering such events are, for the Climate change has been estimated to be a major driver most part,[154] poorly understood.[153] of biodiversity loss in cool conifer forests, savannas, mediterranean-climate systems, tropical forests, in the With low to medium confidence, Smith et al. (2001)[152] Arctic tundra, and in coral reefs.[147] In other ecosystems, concluded that a rapid warming of more than 3 °C above land-use change may be a stronger driver of biodiversity 1990 levels would exceed thresholds that would lead to loss at least in the near-term.[147] Beyond the year 2050, large-scale discontinuities in the climate system. Since climate change may be the major driver for biodiversity the assessment by Smith et al. (2001), improved scien- loss globally.[147] tific understanding provides more guidance for two large- scale singularities: the role of carbon cycle feedbacks in A literature assessment by Fischlin et al. (2007)[144] in- future climate change (discussed below in the section on cluded a quantitative estimate of the number of species at biogeochemical cycles) and the melting of the Greenland increased risk of extinction due to climate change. With and West Antarctic ice sheets.[140] medium confidence, it was projected that approximately 20 to 30% of plant and animal species assessed so far (in an unbiased sample) would likely be at increasingly high risk of extinction should global mean temperatures ex- 2.7.1 Biogeochemical cycles ceed a warming of 2 to 3 °C above pre-industrial temperature levels.[144] The uncertainties in this estimate, how- See also: climate change feedback ever, are large: for a rise of about 2 °C the percentage may be as low as 10%, or for about 3 °C, as high as 40%, Climate change may have an effect on the carbon cycle and depending on biota (all living organisms of an area, in an interactive “feedback” process. A feedback exists the flora and fauna considered as a unit)[148] the range is where an initial process triggers changes in a second pro- between 1% and 80%.[147] As global average tempera- cess that in turn influences the initial process. A positive 2.7. ABRUPT OR IRREVERSIBLE CHANGES 27

feedback intensifies the original process, and a negative The AMOC is equivalently known as the thermohaline feedback reduces it.[120]:78 Models suggest that the inter- circulation (THC).[140] Potential impacts associated action of the climate system and the carbon cycle is one with MOC changes include reduced warming or (in the where the feedback effect is positive.[155]:792 case of abrupt change) absolute cooling of northern Using the A2 SRES emissions scenario, Schneider et high-latitude areas near Greenland and north-western al. (2007)[155]:789 found that this effect led to additional Europe, an increased warming of Southern Hemisphere warming by the years 2090-2100 (relative to the 1990– high-latitudes, tropical drying, as well as changes to 2000) of 0.1–1.5 °C. This estimate was made with high marine ecosystems, terrestrial vegetation, oceanic CO 2 uptake, oceanic oxygen concentrations, and shifts in confidence. The climate projections made in the IPCC [158] Fourth Assessment Report summarized earlier of 1.1–6.4 fisheries. According to an assessment by the US Climate Change Science Program (CCSP, 2008b),[157]:5 °C account for this feedback effect. On the other hand, with medium confidence, Schneider et al. (2007)[155]:789 it is very likely (greater than 90% probability, based on expert judgement)[157]:12 that the strength of the commented that additional releases of GHGs were possible from permafrost, peat lands, wetlands, and large AMOC will decrease over the course of the 21st century. stores of marine hydrates at high latitudes. Warming is still expected to occur over most of the European region downstream of the North Atlantic Current in response to increasing GHGs, as well as over 2.7.2 Greenland and West Antarctic Ice North America. Although it is very unlikely (less than 10% probability, based on expert judgement)[157]:12 that sheets the AMOC will collapse in the 21st century, the potential consequences of such a collapse could be severe.[157]:5 With medium confidence, authors of AR4[49] concluded that with a global average temperature increase of 1–4 °C (relative to temperatures over the years 1990–2000), at 2.7.4 Irreversibilities least a partial deglaciation of the Greenland ice sheet, and possibly the West Antarctic ice sheets would occur. The Commitment to radiative forcing estimated timescale for partial deglaciation was centuries to millennia, and would contribute 4 to 6 metres (13 to Emissions of GHGs are a potentially irreversible commit- 20 ft) or more to sea level rise over this period. ment to sustained radiative forcing in the future.[159] The contribution of a GHG to radiative forcing depends on the gas’s ability to trap infrared (heat) radiation, the con- 2.7.3 The Atlantic Meridional Overturn- centration of the gas in the atmosphere, and the length of ing Circulation time the gas resides in the atmosphere.[159] CO See also: Shutdown of thermohaline circulation 2 is the most important anthropogenic GHG.[160] While The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation more than half of the CO 2 emitted is currently removed from the atmosphere within a century, some fraction (about 20%) of emitted CO 2 remains in the atmosphere for many thousands of years.[161] Consequently, CO 2 emitted today is potentially an irreversible commitment to sustained radiative forcing over thousands of years. This commitment may not be truly irreversible should techniques be developed to remove CO 2 or other GHGs directly from the atmosphere, or to block sunlight to induce cooling.[32] Techniques of this sort are referred to as geoengineering. Little is known This map shows the general location and direction of the about the effectiveness, costs or potential side-effects warm surface (red) and cold deep water (blue) currents of the of geoengineering options.[162] Some geoengineering op- thermohaline circulation. Salinity is represented by color in units tions, such as blocking sunlight, would not prevent further of the Practical Salinity Scale. Low values (blue) are less saline, ocean acidification.[162] while high values (orange) are more saline.[156]

(AMOC) is an important component of the Earth’s Irreversible impacts climate system, characterized by a northward ﬂow of warm, salty water in the upper layers of the Atlantic and a Human-induced climate change may lead to irreversible southward ﬂow of colder water in the deep Atlantic.[157]:5 impacts on physical, biological, and social systems.[163] 28 CHAPTER 2. EFFECTS OF GLOBAL WARMING

There are a number of examples of climate change im- local and global effects of weather dangers, for example pacts that may be irreversible, at least over the timescale droughts, floods, heat waves and declines in agriculture of many human generations.[164] These include the large- productivity, and help plan responses to global warming scale singularities described above – changes in carbon effects. [176] cycle feedbacks, the melting of the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets, and changes to the AMOC.[164] In biological systems, the extinction of species would be an 2.9 See also irreversible impact.[164] In social systems, unique cultures may be lost due to climate change.[164] For example, humans living on atoll islands face risks due to sea-level rise, 2.10 Footnotes sea-surface warming, and increased frequency and intensity of extreme weather events.[165] 1 The TAR[177] and AR4[29] that are referred to in this article use specific and quantitative language to describe uncertainty. This language is intended to provide an indi- 2.8 Scientific opinion cation of the level of confidence that IPCC authors have about a particular finding. The qualitative language used The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to describe uncertainty has a quantitative scale associated has published several major assessments on the effects of with it. The quantitative values for qualitative terms are global warming.[166] Its most recent comprehensive im- intended to ensure that confidence levels are interpreted pact assessment was published in 2014.[167] Publications correctly. The is because qualitative statements, e.g., us- describing the effects of climate change have also been ing the word “likely”, can be interpreted differently in produced by the following organizations: quantitative terms.[178]:44 Confidence levels used in the TAR:[179] • American Association for the Advancement of Sci- ence (AAAS)[168] • Very High = 95% or greater • A report by the Netherlands Environmental Assess- • ment Agency, the Royal Netherlands Meteorolog- High = 67-95% ical Institute, and Wageningen University and Re- • Medium = 33-67% search Centre[169] • • UK AVOID research programme[170] Low = 5-33%

• A report by the UK Royal Society and US National • Very Low = 5% or less Academy of Sciences[171] Conﬁdence statements made in AR4 are listed below:[29] • University of New South Wales Climate Change Re- search Centre[172] • Very high conﬁdence: At least 9 out of 10 chance of [173][174] • US National Research Council being correct

A report by Molina et al. (no date)[175] states: • High confidence: About 8 out of 10 chance " " " • Medium confidence: About 5 out of 10 chance " " " The overwhelming evidence of human- caused climate change documents both current • Low confidence: About 2 out of 10 chance " " " impacts with significant costs and extraordi- nary future risks to society and natural systems • Very low confidence: Less than a 1 out of 10 chance """ 2.8.1 NASA data and tools IPCC (2012)[180] uses the following terms: “very low”, NASA has released public data and tools to predict how “low”, “medium”, “high”, and “very high confidence”. temperature and rainfall patterns worldwide may change Unlike the TAR and AR4, the scale is qualitative rather through to the year 2100 caused by increasing carbon than quantitative. dioxide in Earth’s atmosphere. The dataset, shows pro- The quantitative values used by IPCC authors are “sub- jected changes worldwide on a regional level simulated jective” probabilities,[29][177][181] also known as “person- by 21 climate models. The data can be viewed on a alist” or "Bayesian" probabilities,[182] and reflect the ex- daily timescale for individual cities and towns and may pert judgement of IPCC authors. In this formulation, be used to conduct climate risk assessments to predict the probability is not only a function of an event, but also the 2.11. NOTES 29 state of information that is available to the person mak- [7] Field, C.B., et al., Section A-3. The Decision-making ing the assessment.[182] In this framework, assigned prob- Context, in: Technical summary (archived 18 October abilities may change as more or different information be- 2014), p.55, in IPCC AR5 WG2 A 2014 comes available.[182] [8] SPM.4.1 Long‐term mitigation pathways, in: Summary The IPCC also uses another scale to describe the likeli- for Policymakers, pp.11-15 (archived 2 July 2014), in hood of a particular event occurring.[29] This is differ- IPCC AR5 WG3 2014 ent from the confidence scales described above, and it [9] Clarke, L., et al., Section 6.3.1.3 Baseline emissions pro- is possible to assign confidence values to statements of jections from fossil fuels and industry (pp.17-18 of final likelihood. For example, the judgement that an event is draft), in: Chapter 6: Assessing Transformation Pathways improbable (e.g., rolling a dice twice and getting a six (archived 20 October 2014), in: IPCC AR5 WG3 2014 both times) may be assigned a high level of scientific confidence.[29] Also, the probability that an event has an [10] Greenhouse Gas Concentrations and Climate Implica- even chance of occurring (e.g., a tossed coin coming up tions, p.14, in Prinn & Reilly 2014. The range given by heads) may also be assigned a high level of confidence.[29] Prinn and Reilly is 3.3 to 5.5 °C, with a median of 3.9 °C. [11] SPM.3 Trends in stocks and flows of greenhouse gases and their drivers, in: Summary for Policymakers, p.8 2.11 Notes (archived 2 July 2014), in IPCC AR5 WG3 2014. The range given by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is 3.7 to 4.8 °C, relative to pre-industrial levels [1] Joint-statement by leaders of 18 scientific organiza- (2.5 to 7.8 °C including climate uncertainty). tions: American Association for the Advancement of Sci- ence, American Chemical Society, American Geophys- [12] Field, C.B., et al., Box TS.8: Adaptation Limits and ical Union, American Institute of Biological Sciences, Transformation, in: Technical summary (archived 18 Oc- American Meteorological Society, American Society of tober 2014), p.89, in IPCC AR5 WG2 A 2014 Agronomy, American Society of Plant Biologists, Ameri- can Statistical Association, Association of Ecosystem Re- [13] Field, C.B., et al., Section B-1. Key Risks across Sectors search Centers, Botanical Society of America, Crop Sci- and Regions, in: Technical summary (archived 18 Octo- ence Society of America, Ecological Society of America, ber 2014), p.62, in IPCC AR5 WG2 A 2014 Natural Science Collections, Alliance Organization of Bi- ological Field Stations, Society for Industrial and Applied [14] IPCC, Glossary A-D “climate” and “climate change”, in Mathematics, Society of Systematic Biologists, Soil Sci- IPCC AR4 WG1 2007 ence Society of America, University Corporation for At- mospheric Research (October 21, 2009), Joint-statement [15] US Environmental Protection Agency (US EPA) (14 June on climate change by leaders of 18 scientific organizations 2012), Climate Change Science Overview, US EPA, Click (PDF), Washington DC, USA: American Association for on the image to open a pop-up that explains the differences the Advancement of Science. Archived 14 July 2014. between climate change and global warming.

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[146] Van Riper, Charles. (2014) Projecting Climate Eﬀects [161] Meehl et al. “Chapter 10: Global Climate Projections”. on Birds and Reptiles of the Southwestern United States. Frequently Asked Question 10.3: If Emissions of Green- Reston, Va.: U.S. Department of the Interior, U.S. Geo- house Gases are Reduced, How Quickly do Their Concen- logical Survey. trations in the Atmosphere Decrease?. Missing or empty |title= (help), in IPCC AR4 WG1 2007. [147] Fischlin et al., “Chapter 4: Ecosystems, their properties, goods and services”, Sec. 4.4.11 Global synthesis includ- [162] Barker et al., “Chapter 11: Mitigation from a cross- ing impacts on biodiversity Missing or empty |title= (help) sectoral perspective”, Executive summary - Unconven- , in IPCC AR4 WG2 2007. tional options Missing or empty |title= (help) , in IPCC AR4 WG3 2007. [148] IPCC, Glossary A-D: “biota”, in IPCC AR4 WG2 2007. [163] IPCC, “5.14”, Question 5 http://www.grida.no/climate/ [149] NRC, “Introduction”, Ecological Impacts of Climate ipcc_tar/vol4/english/044.htm Missing or empty |title= Change, p. 16, in NRC 2008b. (help), in IPCC TAR SYR 2001. [150] IPCC, “Section 3: Projected climate change and its impacts”, Sec. 3.3 Impacts of future climate changes Miss- [164] Schneider et al., “Chapter 19: Assessing key vulnerabil- ing or empty |title= (help), in IPCC AR4 SYR 2007. ities and the risk from climate change”, Sec.19.2 Crite- ria for selecting ‘key’ vulnerabilities: Persistence and re- [151] IPCC, “Section 3: Projected climate change and its versibility Missing or empty |title= (help) , in IPCC AR4 impacts”, Sec. 3.3.1 Impacts on systems and sectors: WG2 2007. Ecosystems Missing or empty |title= (help), in IPCC AR4 SYR 2007. [165] Barnett, J and WN Adger (2003). “Climate dangers and atoll countries” (PDF). Climatic [152] Smith et al., “Chapter 19: Vulnerability to Climate Change (Kluwer Academic Publishers) 61: 321. Change and Reasons for Concern: A Synthesis”, Sec. doi:10.1023/b:clim.0000004559.08755.88. This paper 19.6.1. The Irregular Face of Climate Change Missing was published in 2001 as Tyndall Centre Working Paper or empty |title= (help) , in IPCC TAR WG2 2001. 9

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[158] Schneider et al., “Chapter 19: Assessing key vulnerabili- [177] IPCC, “Synthesis Report”, Question 2, Box 2-1 Missing ties and the risk from climate change”, Sec. 19.3.5.3 Pos- or empty |title= (help), IPCC TAR SYR 2001. sible changes in the North Atlantic meridional overturn- [178] Moss, R.; Schneider, S. (July 2000), “Uncertainties”, in ing circulation (MOC) Missing or empty |title= (help) , in R. Pachuari, T. Taniguchi and K. Tanaka, (eds.), IPCC IPCC AR4 WG2 2007. supporting material: guidance papers on the cross cutting [159] Albritton et al., “Technical Summary”, Sec. C.1 Observed issues of the Third Assessment Report of the IPCC (PDF), Changes in Globally Well-Mixed Greenhouse Gas Con- 2-1-1 Toranomon, Minato-ku, 1050001 Tokyo, Japan: centrations and Radiative Forcing Missing or empty |title= Global Industrial and Social Progress Research Institute (help) , p. 38, in IPCC TAR WG1 2001. (GISPRI), ISBN 4-9980908-0-1

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[180] “Summary for policymakers”, https://docs.google.com/ • IPCC TAR WG1 (2001), Houghton, J.T.; Ding, Y.; file/d/0B1gFp6Ioo3akYklZcWkwWHJud00/edit?pli=1 Griggs, D.J.; Noguer, M.; van der Linden, P.J.; Dai, Missing or empty |title= (help), in IPCC SREX 2012, p. X.; Maskell, K.; and Johnson, C.A., ed., Climate 19 Change 2001: The Scientific Basis, Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report [181] Ahmad et al., “Chapter 2: Methods and Tools”, Sec. of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2.6.2. “Objective” and “Subjective” Probabilities are not Always Explicitly Distinguished Missing or empty |title= Cambridge University Press, ISBN 0-521-80767-0 (help) , in IPCC TAR WG2 2001. (pb: 0-521-01495-6). • [182] Granger Morgan, M. (Lead Author), H. Dowlatabadi, M. IPCC TAR WG2 (2001), McCarthy, J. J.; Canziani, Henrion, D. Keith, R. Lempert, S. McBride, M. Small and O. F.; Leary, N. A.; Dokken, D. J.; and White, T. Wilbanks (Contributing Authors) (2009). Synthesis K. S., ed., Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adap- and Assessment Product 5.2: Best practice approaches for tation and Vulnerability, Contribution of Working characterizing, communicating, and incorporating scien- Group II to the Third Assessment Report of the In- tific uncertainty in decisionmaking. A Report by the U.S. tergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cam- Climate Change Science Program and the Subcommittee on bridge University Press, ISBN 0-521-80768-9 (pb: Global Change Research. Washington D.C., USA.: Na- 0-521-01500-6). tional Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. pp. 19– 20; 27–28. Tables 2.1 and 2.2 on pages 27-28 show two • IPCC TAR WG3 (2001), Metz, B.; Davidson, O.; quantitative scales of uncertainty which are used in the Swart, R.; and Pan, J., ed., Climate Change 2001: TAR and AR4. Mitigation, Contribution of Working Group III to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovern- mental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge Uni- 2.12 References versity Press, ISBN 0-521-80769-7 (pb: 0-521- 01502-2). • Allison, I. et al. (2009), The Copenhagen Diag- • IPCC TAR SYR (2001), Watson, R. T.; and the nosis, 2009: Updating the world on the Latest Cli- Core Writing Team, ed., Climate Change 2001: Syn- mate Science, Sydney, Australia: The University of thesis Report, Contribution of Working Groups I, II, New South Wales Climate Change Research Centre and III to the Third Assessment Report of the Inter- (CCRC), retrieved 8 June 2014 . Archived 7 March governmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge 2014. University Press, ISBN 0-521-80770-0 (pb: 0-521- 01507-3). • Good, P. et al. (2010), An updated review of devel- • opments in climate science research since IPCC AR4. IPCC AR4 WG1 (2007), Solomon, S.; Qin, D.; A report by the AVOID consortium (PDF), London, Manning, M.; Chen, Z.; Marquis, M.; Averyt, K.B.; UK: Committee on Climate Change . Archived Tignor, M.; and Miller, H.L., ed., Climate Change Report website. 2007: The Physical Science Basis, Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Re- port of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate • Committee on Ecological Impacts of Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, ISBN 978-0- Change, US National Research Council (NRC) 521-88009-1 (pb: 978-0-521-70596-7). (2008). Ecological Impacts of Climate Change. 500 Fifth Street, NW Washington, DC 20001, USA: • IPCC AR4 WG2 (2007), Parry, M.L.; Canziani, The National Academies Press. ISBN 978-0-309- O.F.; Palutikof, J.P.; van der Linden, P.J.; and 12710-3. Hanson, C.E., ed., Climate Change 2007: Im- pacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, Contribution • IPCC (November 2010), Understanding Climate of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Change: 22 years of IPCC assessment (PDF), IPCC, Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate retrieved 29 May 2014. Archived file Change, Cambridge University Press, ISBN 978-0- 521-88010-7 (pb: 978-0-521-70597-4).

• IPCC SAR WG2 (1996), Watson, R.T.; Zinyow- • IPCC AR4 WG3 (2007), Metz, B.; Davidson, O.R.; era, M.C.; and Moss, R.H., ed., Climate Change Bosch, P.R.; Dave, R.; and Meyer, L.A., ed., 1995: Impacts, Adaptations and Mitigation of Cli- Climate Change 2007: Mitigation of Climate Change, mate Change: Scientiﬁc-Technical Analyses, Contri- Contribution of Working Group III to the Fourth bution of Working Group II to the Second Assess- Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel ment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Cli- on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, mate Change, Cambridge University Press, ISBN 0- ISBN 978-0-521-88011-4 (pb: 978-0-521-70598- 521-56431-X (pb: 0-521-56437-9 pdf. 1). 36 CHAPTER 2. EFFECTS OF GLOBAL WARMING

• IPCC AR4 SYR (2007), Core Writing Team; • This article incorporates public domain material Pachauri, R.K; and Reisinger, A., ed., Climate from the NOAA document: Kennedy, C.H. (10 July Change 2007: Synthesis Report, Contribution of 2012), ClimateWatch Magazine » State of the Climate Working Groups I, II and III to the Fourth Assess- in 2011: Highlights, NOAA ment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Cli- mate Change, Geneva, Switzerland: IPCC, ISBN • Molina, M. et al. (n.d.), What We Know: The Real- 92-9169-122-4. ity, Risks and Response to Climate Change. A report • IPCC SREX (2012), Field, C.B., et al., ed., by the American Association for the Advancement Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disas- of Science (AAAS) Climate Science Panel (PDF), ters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation (SREX), AAAS, retrieved 6 June 2014 . Archived 5 June Cambridge University Press . Summary for Policy- 2014. Report website (archived 6 June 2014). makers available in Arabic, Chinese, French, Rus- • sian, and Spanish. PBL et al. (November 2009), News in climate science and exploring boundaries: A Policy brief on • IPCC AR5 WG1 (2013), Stocker, T.F. et al., eds., developments since the IPCC AR4 report in 2007. Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Ba- A report by the Netherlands Environmental Assess- sis. Working Group 1 (WG1) Contribution to the ment Agency (PBL), Royal Netherlands Meteorologi- Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) cal Institute (KNMI), and Wageningen University and 5th Assessment Report (AR5), Cambridge Univer- Research Centre (WUR) (PDF), Bilthoven, Nether- sity Press . Climate Change 2013 Working Group 1 lands: PBL . Archived 1 May 2014. Report website website. (Archived 1 May 2014).

• IPCC AR5 WG2 A (2014), Field, C.B. et al., eds., • Prinn, R.G. and J.M. Reilly (2014), 2014 Energy Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and and Climate Outlook (PDF), Cambridge, MA, USA: Vulnerability. Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects. MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Contribution of Working Group II (WG2) to the Fifth Global Change. Archived 22 October 2014. Report Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental website (archived 2 November 2014). Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Cambridge Uni- versity Press . Archived 20 October 2014. • Stern, N. (2006), Stern Review Report on the Eco- nomics of Climate Change (pre-publication edition), • IPCC AR5 WG3 (2014), Edenhofer, O. et al., eds., London, UK: HM Treasury Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change. Contribution of Working Group III (WG3) to the Fifth • UKMO (18 September 2013), AVOID Reports, UK Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Meteorological Office (UKMO), retrieved 8 June Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Cambridge Uni- 2014. Archived 8 June 2014. versity Press . Archived 29 June 2014. • UK Royal Society and US National Academy of Sci- • IPCC press release (31 March 2014), Press Release: ences (2014), Climate Change: Evidence and Causes IPCC Report: A changing climate creates pervasive (PDF), retrieved 8 June 2014. Archived 7 March risks but opportunities exist for effective responses - 2014. Report website (archived 31 May 2014). Responses will face challenges with high warming of the climate (PDF), IPCC, retrieved 29 May 2014. • Archived file. Also available in Arabic, Chinese, This article incorporates public domain mate- French, Russian and Spanish. rial from the US EPA document: Glossary of Cli- mate Change Terms: Climate Change: US EPA, US • Karl, Thomas R.; Melillo, Jerry M.; Peterson, Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Climate Thomas C., eds. (2009). Global Climate Change Im- Change Division, 14 June 2012 pacts in the United States (PDF). New York: Cam- • Staff of the International Bank for Reconstruc- bridge University Press. ISBN 978-0-521-14407-0. tion and Development / The World Bank (2010). • This article incorporates public domain material World Development Report 2010: Development and from the NOAA document: NOAA (July 2010), Climate Change. 1818 H Street NW, Washing- State of the Climate in 2009, as appearing in the July ton DC 20433, USA: International Bank for Re- 2010 issue (Vol. 91) of the Bulletin of the Amer- construction and Development / The World Bank. ican Meteorological Society (BAMS). Supplemental doi:10.1596/978-0-8213-7987-5. ISBN 978-0- and Summary Materials: Report at a Glance: High- 8213-7987-5. lights, US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Ad- ministration (NOAA): National Climatic Data Cen- • US NRC (2010). Advancing the Science of Cli- ter mate Change. A report by the US National Research 2.14. EXTERNAL LINKS 37

Council (NRC). Washington, D.C., USA: National • “Educational Forum: Arctic Climate Impact”. Academies Press. ISBN 0-309-14588-0.. Archived Panel discussion with James J. McCarthy, Pro- 29 May 2014. fessor at Harvard University, and Author; Paul R. Epstein, M.D., instructor in medicine at • US NRC (2011), Climate Stabilization Targets: Harvard Medical School; and Ross Gelbspan, Emissions, Concentrations, and Impacts over Pulitzer Prize–winning journalist and author. Decades to Millennia. A report by the US National Massachusetts School of Law. Research Council (NRC), Washington, D.C., USA: • “How we know humans are changing the cli- National Academies Press Archived 27 March mate and Why climate change is a clear and 2014. present danger”. Interviews with Christopher Field and Michael MacCracken. Christopher Field is the director of the Department of 2.13 Further reading Global Ecology at the Carnegie Institution of Washington, professor of biology and environ- • Watkins, K. et al. (2007), Ugaz, C., ed., Human De- mental earth system science at Stanford Uni- velopment Report 2007/8: Fighting climate change: versity, and the Working Group II Co-Chair Human solidarity in a divided world, Basingstoke, for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate UK: Palgrave Macmillian, ISBN 978-0-230-54704- Change. Michael MacCracken is the chief sci- 9 entist for Climate Change Programs at the Cli- mate Institute and a co-author and contributing author for various chapters in the IPCC assessment reports. Climate Progress website, 2.14 External links February 5, 2010.

Physical impacts • 25 Devastating Eﬀects Of Climate Change— Business Insider (October 11, 2014) • “Climate Change”. World Meteorological Organi- zation. • The IPCC Working Group I (WG I). This body assesses the physical scientiﬁc aspects of the climate system and climate change. • NASA Nex Climate Data and Prediction Models

Social, economic and ecological impacts

• Climate change on the United Nations Economic and Social Development (UNESD) Division for Sustainable Development website. • The IPCC Working Group II (WG II) website – This body assesses the vulnerability of socio-economic and natural systems to climate change, negative and positive consequences of climate change, and options for adapting to it.

General

• List of United Nations Functional Commissions and Expert Bodies related to climate change • IRIN, the humanitarian news and analysis service of the UN Oﬃce for the Coordination of Humanitarian Aﬀairs: “What climate change does”, “How climate change works”, and “Gathering Storm - the humanitarian impact of climate change” • Videos: Chapter 3

Global warming

This page is about the current warming of the Earth’s IEA CO2 Emissions per Year vs. IPCC Scenarios climate system. "Climate change" can also refer to 32 IEA data

climate trends at any point in Earth’s history. For other Emitted

2 B2 uses see Global warming (disambiguation) 30 A1 28 A1T Global Land–Ocean Temperature Index A2 26 A1F1 0.6

Annual Mean 24 0.4 5‐year Running Mean 22

0.2 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Billions of Tonnes Fossil Fuel CO 0 Year Fossil fuel related carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions com-

−Temperature Anomaly (°C) 0.2 pared to five of the IPCC’s "SRES" emissions scenarios. The dips are related to global recessions. Image source: Skeptical Science. −0.4 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 Global mean surface temperature change from 1880 to Global warming and climate change are terms for the 2014, relative to the 1951–1980 mean. The black line is observed century-scale rise in the average temperature of the annual mean and the red line is the 5-year running the Earth’s climate system and its related effects. mean. The green bars show uncertainty estimates. Multiple lines of scientific evidence show that the cli- Source: NASA GISS. mate system is warming.[2][3] Although the increase of near-surface atmospheric temperature is the measure of global warming often reported in the popular press, most of the additional energy stored in the climate system since 1970 has gone into ocean warming. The remainder has melted ice, and warmed the continents and atmosphere.[4][lower-alpha 1] Many of the observed changes since the 1950s are unprecedented over decades to millennia.[5] Scientific understanding of global warming is increasing. In its 2014 report the Intergovernmental Panel on Cli- mate Change (IPCC) reported that scientists were more than 95% certain that most of global warming is caused World map showing surface temperature trends (°C per by increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases and decade) between 1950 and 2014. Source: NASA other human (anthropogenic) activities.[6][7][8] Climate GISS.[1] model projections summarized in the report indicated that during the 21st century the global surface temperature is likely to rise a further 0.3 to 1.7 °C (0.5 to 3.1 °F) for their lowest emissions scenario using stringent mitigation and 2.6 to 4.8 °C (4.7 to 8.6 °F) for their

38 3.1. OBSERVED TEMPERATURE CHANGES 39

highest.[9] These findings have been recognized by the national science academies of the major industrialized nations.[10][lower-alpha 2] Future climate change and associated impacts will differ from region to region around the globe.[12][13] An- ticipated effects include warming global temperature, rising sea levels, changing precipitation, and expansion of deserts in the subtropics.[14] Warming is expected to be greatest in the Arctic, with the continuing retreat of glaciers, permafrost and sea ice. Other likely changes include more frequent extreme weather events including heat waves, droughts, heavy rainfall, and heavy snowfall;[15] ocean acidification; and species extinctions due to shifting temperature regimes. Effects significant Two millennia of mean surface temperatures according to dif- to humans include the threat to food security from de- ferent reconstructions from climate proxies, each smoothed on a creasing crop yields and the abandonment of populated decadal scale, with the instrumental temperature record overlaid [16][17] areas due to flooding. in black. Possible societal responses to global warming include mitigation by emissions reduction, adaptation to its effects, building systems resilient to its effects, and possible future climate engineering. Most countries are parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC),[18] whose ultimate objective is to prevent dangerous anthropogenic climate change.[19] The UNFCCC have adopted a range of policies designed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions[20][21][22][23] and to assist in adaptation to global warming.[20][23][24][25] Parties to the UNFCCC have agreed that deep cuts in emissions are required,[26] and that future global warming should be limited to below 2.0 °C (3.6 °F) relative to the pre- industrial level.[26][lower-alpha 3] NOAA graph of Global Annual Temperature Anomalies 1950– 2012, showing the El Niño Southern Oscillation 3.1 Observed temperature changes ture shows a warming of 0.85 [0.65 to 1.06] °C in the Main article: Instrumental temperature record period 1880 to 2012, based on multiple independently The global average (land and ocean) surface tempera- produced datasets.[30] Earth’s average surface temperature rose by 0.74±0.18 °C over the period 1906–2005. Energy change inventory, 1971-2010 The rate of warming almost doubled for the last half of that period (0.13±0.03 °C per decade, versus 0.07±0.02 °C per decade).[31] Ice The average temperature of the lower troposphere has in- 3% creased between 0.13 and 0.22 °C (0.23 and 0.40 °F) Oceans Continents per decade since 1979, according to satellite tempera- 3% ture measurements. Climate proxies show the temper- 93% Atmosphere ature to have been relatively stable over the one or two 1% thousand years before 1850, with regionally varying fluctuations such as the Medieval Warm Period and the Little Ice Age.[32] The warming that is evident in the instrumental temper- Earth has been in radiative imbalance since at least the 1970s, ature record is consistent with a wide range of obser- where less energy leaves the atmosphere than enters it. Most of vations, as documented by many independent scientific this extra energy has been absorbed by the oceans.[28] It is very groups.[33] Examples include sea level rise,[34] widespread likely that human activities substantially contributed to this in- melting of snow and land ice,[35] increased heat con- crease in ocean heat content.[29] tent of the oceans,[33] increased humidity,[33] and the earlier timing of spring events,[36] e.g., the flowering of 40 CHAPTER 3. GLOBAL WARMING plants.[37] The probability that these changes could have 3.2 Initial causes of temperature [33] occurred by chance is virtually zero. changes (external forcings)

3.1.1 Trends Main article: Attribution of recent climate change Thermal radiation into space: 195 Directly radiated Solar Radiation from surface: 40 absorbed by Earth Temperature changes vary over the globe. Since 1979, 235 W/m² land temperatures have increased about twice as fast as Greenhouse gas absorption: 350 67 ocean temperatures (0.25 °C per decade against 0.13 Heat and energy 452 °C per decade).[38] Ocean temperatures increase more in the atmosphere slowly than land temperatures because of the larger ef- The fective heat capacity of the oceans and because the ocean Greenhouse 168 324 loses more heat by evaporation.[39] The northern hemi- Eﬀect 492

Earth's land and ocean surface sphere is also naturally warmer than the southern hemi- warmed to an average of 14℃ sphere mainly because of meridional heat transport in the Greenhouse effect schematic showing energy flows oceans, which has a differential of about 0.9 petawatts between space, the atmosphere, and Earth’s surface. northwards,[40] with an additional contribution from the Energy exchanges are expressed in watts per square albedo differences between the polar regions. Since the meter (W/m2). beginning of industrialisation the temperature difference between the hemispheres has increased due to melting of sea ice and snow in the North.[41] Average arctic temperatures have been increasing at almost twice the rate of the rest of the world in the past 100 years; however arctic temperatures are also highly variable.[42] Although more greenhouse gases are emitted in the Northern than South- ern Hemisphere this does not contribute to the difference in warming because the major greenhouse gases persist long enough to mix between hemispheres.[43] The thermal inertia of the oceans and slow responses of other indirect effects mean that climate can take centuries or longer to adjust to changes in forcing. Climate commitment studies indicate that even if greenhouse gases This graph, known as the Keeling Curve, documents were stabilized at year 2000 levels, a further warming of the increase of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) about 0.5 °C (0.9 °F) would still occur.[44] concentrations from 1958–2015. Monthly CO2 measurements display seasonal oscillations in an upward Global temperature is subject to short-term fluctuations trend; each year’s maximum occurs during the Northern that overlay long-term trends and can temporarily mask Hemisphere's late spring, and declines during its growing them. The relative stability in surface temperature from season as plants remove some atmospheric CO . 2002 to 2009, which has been dubbed the global warming 2 hiatus by the media and some scientists,[45] is consistent with such an episode.[46][47] Recent updates to account for The climate system can respond to changes in exter- differing methods of measuring ocean surface tempera- nal forcings.[56][57] External forcings can “push” the cli- ture measurements show a significant positive trend over mate in the direction of warming or cooling.[58] Ex- the recent decade.[48][49] amples of external forcings include changes in atmospheric composition (e.g., increased concentrations of greenhouse gases), solar luminosity, volcanic eruptions, [59] 3.1.2 Warmest years and variations in Earth’s orbit around the Sun. Orbital cycles vary slowly over tens of thousands of years, and at present are in a cooling trend.[60] The variations in orbital Nine of the 10 warmest years in the instrumental record cycles may produce a glacial period about 50,000 years occurred since 2000, with 2014 being the warmest year from now.[61] on record.[50] 2014 was also the 38th consecutive year with above-average temperatures.[51] Before 2014, 2005 and 2010 had tied for the planet’s warmest year, exceeding 1998 by a few hundredths of a degree.[52][53][54] Sur- 3.2.1 Greenhouse gases face temperatures in 1998 were unusually warm because global temperatures are affected by the El Niño Southern Main articles: Greenhouse gas, Greenhouse effect, Oscillation (ENSO), and the strongest El Niño in the past Radiative forcing, Carbon dioxide in Earth’s atmosphere century occurred during that year.[55] and Earth’s energy budget 3.2. INITIAL CAUSES OF TEMPERATURE CHANGES (EXTERNAL FORCINGS) 41

See also: List of countries by carbon dioxide emissions cates that CO2 values higher than this were last seen and History of climate change science about 20 million years ago.[75] Fossil fuel burning has produced about three-quarters of the increase in CO2 from The greenhouse effect is the process by which absorption human activity over the past 20 years. The rest of this increase is caused mostly by changes in land-use, par- and emission of infrared radiation by gases in a planet’s [76] atmosphere warm its lower atmosphere and surface. It ticularly deforestation. Estimates of global CO2 emis- was proposed by Joseph Fourier in 1824, discovered in sions in 2011 from fossil fuel combustion, including ce- 1860 by John Tyndall,[62] was first investigated quantita- ment production and gas flaring, was 34.8 billion tonnes (9.5 ± 0.5 PgC), an increase of 54% above emissions in tively by Svante Arrhenius in 1896,[63] and was developed in the 1930s through 1960s by Guy Stewart Callendar.[64] 1990. Coal burning was responsible for 43% of the total emissions, oil 34%, gas 18%, cement 4.9% and gas flaring 0.7%[77] In May 2013, it was reported that read- ings for CO2 taken at the world’s primary benchmark site in Mauna Loa surpassed 400 ppm. According to professor Brian Hoskins, this is likely the first time CO2 levels have been this high for about 4.5 million years.[78][79] Monthly global CO2 concentrations exceeded 400 p.p.m. in March 2015, probably for the first time in several million years.[80] Over the last three decades of the twentieth century, Annual world greenhouse gas emissions, in 2010, by gross domestic product per capita and population growth sector. were the main drivers of increases in greenhouse gas [81] emissions. CO2 emissions are continuing to rise due to the burning of fossil fuels and land-use change.[82][83]:71 Emissions can be attributed to different regions. Attribu- tion of emissions due to land-use change is a controversial issue.[84][85]:289 Emissions scenarios, estimates of changes in future emission levels of greenhouse gases, have been projected that depend upon uncertain economic, sociological, technological, and natural developments.[86] In most sce- Percentage share of global cumulative energy-related narios, emissions continue to rise over the century, while [87][88] CO2 emissions between 1751 and 2012 across different in a few, emissions are reduced. Fossil fuel re- regions. serves are abundant, and will not limit carbon emissions in the 21st century.[89] Emission scenarios, combined On Earth, naturally occurring amounts of greenhouse with modelling of the carbon cycle, have been used to gases have a mean warming effect of about 33 °C (59 produce estimates of how atmospheric concentrations of °F).[65][lower-alpha 4] Without the Earth’s atmosphere, the greenhouse gases might change in the future. Using the Earth’s average temperature would be well below the six IPCC SRES “marker” scenarios, models suggest that freezing temperature of water.[66] The major greenhouse by the year 2100, the atmospheric concentration of CO2 [90] gases are water vapor, which causes about 36–70% of the could range between 541 and 970 ppm. This is 90– 250% above the concentration in the year 1750. greenhouse effect; carbon dioxide (CO2), which causes 9–26%; methane (CH4), which causes 4–9%; and ozone The popular media and the public often confuse [67][68][69] (O3), which causes 3–7%. Clouds also affect the global warming with ozone depletion, i.e., the destruc- radiation balance through cloud forcings similar to green- tion of stratospheric ozone (e.g., the ozone layer) by house gases. chlorofluorocarbons.[91][92] Although there are a few Human activity since the Industrial Revolution has in- areas of linkage, the relationship between the two is not creased the amount of greenhouse gases in the atmo- strong. Reduced stratospheric ozone has had a slight cooling influence on surface temperatures, while increased sphere, leading to increased radiative forcing from CO2, methane, tropospheric ozone, CFCs and nitrous oxide. tropospheric ozone has had a somewhat larger warming [93] According to work published in 2007, the concentrations effect. of CO2 and methane have increased by 36% and 148% respectively since 1750.[70] These levels are much higher than at any time during the last 800,000 years, the pe- 3.2.2 Particulates and soot riod for which reliable data has been extracted from ice cores.[71][72][73][74] Less direct geological evidence indi- Global dimming, a gradual reduction in the amount of global direct irradiance at the Earth’s surface, was ob- 42 CHAPTER 3. GLOBAL WARMING

size, which reduces growth of raindrops and makes the cloud more reflective to incoming sunlight, known as the Albrecht effect.[99] Indirect effects are most noticeable in marine stratiform clouds, and have very little radiative effect on convective clouds. Indirect effects of particulates represent the largest uncertainty in radiative forcing.[100] Soot may either cool or warm Earth’s climate system, depending on whether it is airborne or deposited. At- mospheric soot directly absorbs solar radiation, which

Atmospheric CO2 concentration from 650,000 years ago to near heats the atmosphere and cools the surface. In isolated present, using ice core proxy data and direct measurements. areas with high soot production, such as rural India, as much as 50% of surface warming due to greenhouse gases may be masked by atmospheric brown clouds.[101] When deposited, especially on glaciers or on ice in arctic regions, the lower surface albedo can also directly heat the surface.[102] The inﬂuences of particulates, including black carbon, are most pronounced in the tropics and subtropics, particularly in Asia, while the eﬀects of greenhouse gases are dominant in the extratropics and southern hemisphere.[103]

Ship tracks can be seen as lines in these clouds over the Atlantic Ocean on the east coast of the United States. The climatic impacts from particulate forcing could have a large eﬀect on climate through the indirect eﬀect.

[94] served from 1961 until at least 1990. The main cause Changes in Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) and monthly sunspot of this dimming is particulates produced by volcanoes numbers since the mid-1970s. and human made pollutants, which exerts a cooling effect by increasing the reflection of incoming sunlight. The effects of the products of fossil fuel combustion – CO2 3.2.3 Solar activity and aerosols – have partially offset one another in recent decades, so that net warming has been due to the in- Main articles: Solar variation and Solar wind [95] crease in non-CO2 greenhouse gases such as methane. Radiative forcing due to particulates is temporally lim- Since 1978, solar irradiance has been measured by ited due to wet deposition, which causes them to have an [106] atmospheric lifetime of one week. Carbon dioxide has satellites. These measurements indicate that the Sun’s a lifetime of a century or more, and as such, changes in radiative output has not increased since 1978, so the particulate concentrations will only delay climate changes warming during the past 30 years cannot be attributed due to carbon dioxide.[96] Black carbon is second only to to an increase in solar energy reaching the Earth. carbon dioxide for its contribution to global warming.[97] Climate models have been used to examine the role of the [107] In addition to their direct effect by scattering and absorb- Sun in recent climate change. Models are unable to ing solar radiation, particulates have indirect effects on reproduce the rapid warming observed in recent decades the Earth’s radiation budget. Sulfates act as cloud con- when they only take into account variations in solar output densation nuclei and thus lead to clouds that have more and volcanic activity. Models are, however, able to sim- and smaller cloud droplets. These clouds reflect solar ra- ulate the observed 20th century changes in temperature diation more efficiently than clouds with fewer and larger when they include all of the most important external forc- droplets, phenomenon known as the Twomey effect.[98] ings, including human influences and natural forcings. This effect also causes droplets to be of more uniform Another line of evidence against the Sun having caused 3.4. CLIMATE MODELS 43

Radiative Forcing Components alter the response of the system to changes in external 2.5 forcings. Positive feedbacks increase the response of the climate system to an initial forcing, while negative feed- 2 backs reduce the response of the climate system to an ) 2 1.5 initial forcing.[112]

Halocarbons Aerosols 1 2 There are a range of feedbacks in the climate system, Tropospheric CO 0.5 N20

on snow including water vapor, changes in ice-albedo (snow and 4 effect water vapour Stratospheric Black carbon Linear contrails Cloud albedo Direct effect

CH ice cover aﬀect how much the Earth’s surface absorbs 0 or reﬂects incoming sunlight), clouds, and changes in

Radiative forcing (W/m Greenhouse -0.5 Gases the Earth’s carbon cycle (e.g., the release of carbon [113] Land use Solar irradiance -1 Stratospheric from soil). The main negative feedback is the en- Ozone Albedo

Component ergy the Earth’s surface radiates into space as infrared -1.5 [114]

Net Anthropogenic radiation. According to the Stefan-Boltzmann law, if the absolute temperature (as measured in kelvin) doubles,[lower-alpha 5] radiated energy increases by a factor Contribution of natural factors and human activities to radiative of 16 (2 to the 4th power).[115] forcing of climate change.[104] Radiative forcing values are for the year 2005, relative to the pre-industrial era (1750).[104] The Feedbacks are an important factor in determining the contribution of solar irradiance to radiative forcing is 5% the sensitivity of the climate system to increased atmo- value of the combined radiative forcing due to increases in the spheric greenhouse gas concentrations. Other factors be- atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane and ni- [105] ing equal, a higher climate sensitivity means that more trous oxide. warming will occur for a given increase in greenhouse gas forcing.[116] Uncertainty over the effect of feedbacks recent climate change comes from looking at how tem- is a major reason why different climate models project peratures at different levels in the Earth’s atmosphere different magnitudes of warming for a given forcing have changed.[108] Models and observations show that scenario. More research is needed to understand the [112] greenhouse warming results in warming of the lower role of clouds and carbon cycle feedbacks in climate [117] atmosphere (called the troposphere) but cooling of projections. [109][110] the upper atmosphere (called the stratosphere). The IPCC projections previously mentioned span the Depletion of the ozone layer by chemical refrigerants has “likely” range (greater than 66% probability, based on ex- also resulted in a strong cooling effect in the stratosphere. pert judgement)[6] for the selected emissions scenarios. If the Sun were responsible for observed warming, warm- However, the IPCC’s projections do not reflect the full ing of both the troposphere and stratosphere would be range of uncertainty.[118] The lower end of the “likely” [111] expected. range appears to be better constrained than the upper end of the “likely” range.[118] 3.3 Feedback

Main articles: Climate change feedback and Climate sensitivity 3.4 Climate models The climate system includes a range of feedbacks, which

Main article: Global climate model

Calculations of global warming prepared in or before 2001 from a range of climate models under the SRES Sea ice, shown here in Nunavut, in northern Canada, reﬂects A2 emissions scenario, which assumes no action is taken more sunshine, while open ocean absorbs more, accelerating to reduce emissions and regionally divided economic melting. development. 44 CHAPTER 3. GLOBAL WARMING

effects, they do indicate that the warming since 1970 is dominated by man-made greenhouse gas emissions.[59] The physical realism of models is tested by exam- ining their ability to simulate contemporary or past climates.[129] Climate models produce a good match to observations of global temperature changes over the last century, but do not simulate all aspects of climate.[130] Projected change in annual mean surface air temperature Not all effects of global warming are accurately predicted from the late 20th century to the middle 21st century, by the climate models used by the IPCC. Observed Arctic based on a medium emissions scenario (SRES A1B).[119] shrinkage has been faster than that predicted.[131] Precip- This scenario assumes that no future policies are adopted itation increased proportionally to atmospheric humidity, to limit greenhouse gas emissions. Image credit: NOAA and hence significantly faster than global climate models GFDL.[120] predict.[132][133] Since 1990, sea level has also risen considerably faster than models predicted it would.[134] A climate model is a computerized representation of the physical, chemical and biological processes that affect the climate system.[121] Such models are based on scientific 3.5 Observed and expected envi- disciplines such as fluid dynamics and thermodynamics as ronmental effects well as physical processes such as radiative transfer. The models predict a range of variables such as local air move- Main article: Effects of global warming ment, temperature, clouds, and other atmospheric prop- Anthropogenic forcing has likely contributed to some of erties; ocean temperature, salt content, and circulation; ice cover on land and sea; the transfer of heat and moisture from soil and vegetation to the atmosphere; and chemical and biological processes, among others. Although researchers attempt to include as many processes as possible, simplifications of the actual climate system are inevitable because of the constraints of available computer power and limitations in knowledge of the climate system. Results from models can also vary due to different greenhouse gas inputs and the model’s climate sensitivity. For example, the uncertainty in IPCC’s 2007 projections is caused by (1) the use of multiple [135] [118] Projections of global mean sea level rise by Parris and others. models with differing sensitivity to greenhouse gas [136] concentrations,[122] (2) the use of differing estimates of Probabilities have not been assigned to these projections. Therefore, none of these projections should be interpreted as a humanity’s future greenhouse gas emissions,[118] (3) any “best estimate” of future sea level rise. Image credit: NOAA. additional emissions from climate feedbacks that were not included in the models IPCC used to prepare its re- the observed changes, including sea level rise, changes in [123] port, i.e., greenhouse gas releases from permafrost. climate extremes (such as the number of warm and cold The models do not assume the climate will warm due to days), declines in Arctic sea ice extent, glacier retreat, and increasing levels of greenhouse gases. Instead the models greening of the Sahara.[137][138] predict how greenhouse gases will interact with radiative During the 21st century, glaciers[139] and snow cover[140] transfer and other physical processes. Warming or cool- are projected to continue their widespread retreat. Pro- [124] ing is thus a result, not an assumption, of the models. jections of declines in Arctic sea ice vary.[141][142] Recent Clouds and their effects are especially difficult to pre- projections suggest that Arctic summers could be ice-free dict. Improving the models’ representation of clouds is (defined as ice extent less than 1 million square km) as therefore an important topic in current research.[125] An- early as 2025-2030.[143] other prominent research topic is expanding and improv- “Detection” is the process of demonstrating that climate [126][127][128] ing representations of the carbon cycle. has changed in some defined statistical sense, without Models are also used to help investigate the causes of re- providing a reason for that change. Detection does not cent climate change by comparing the observed changes imply attribution of the detected change to a particular to those that the models project from various natural and cause. “Attribution” of causes of climate change is the human causes. Although these models do not unambigu- process of establishing the most likely causes for the de- ously attribute the warming that occurred from approxi- tected change with some defined level of confidence.[144] mately 1910 to 1945 to either natural variation or human Detection and attribution may also be applied to observed changes in physical, ecological and social systems.[145] 3.5. OBSERVED AND EXPECTED ENVIRONMENTAL EFFECTS 45

3.5.1 Extreme weather 52–98 cm.[152] The IPCC’s projections are conservative, and may underestimate future sea level rise.[153] Other es- Main articles: Extreme weather and Physical impacts of timates suggest for the same period that global mean sea climate change § Extreme events level could rise by 0.2 to 2.0 m (0.7–6.6 ft), relative to mean sea level in 1992.[135] Changes in regional climate are expected to include Widespread coastal flooding would be expected if sev- greater warming over land, with most warming at high eral degrees of warming is sustained for millennia.[154] northern latitudes, and least warming over the Southern For example, sustained global warming of more than 2 Ocean and parts of the North Atlantic Ocean.[146] °C (relative to pre-industrial levels) could lead to eventual sea level rise of around 1 to 4 m due to thermal expan- Future changes in precipitation are expected to follow ex- sion of sea water and the melting of glaciers and small isting trends, with reduced precipitation over subtropical ice caps.[154] Melting of the Greenland ice sheet could land areas, and increased precipitation at subpolar lati- contribute an additional 4 to 7.5 m over many thousands tudes and some equatorial regions.[147] Projections sug- of years.[154] It has been estimated that we are already gest a probable increase in the frequency and severity of committed to a sea-level rise of approximately 2.3 me- some extreme weather events, such as heat waves.[148] ters for each degree of temperature rise within the next A 2015 study published in Nature, states: About 18% of 2,000 years.[155] the moderate daily precipitation extremes over land are attributable to the observed temperature increase since pre- industrial times, which in turn primarily results from hu- 3.5.3 Ecological systems man influence. For 2 °C of warming the fraction of precipitation extremes attributable to human influence rises to Main article: Climate change and ecosystems about 40%. Likewise, today about 75% of the moderate daily hot extremes over land are attributable to warming. In terrestrial ecosystems, the earlier timing of spring It is the most rare and extreme events for which the largest events, and poleward and upward shifts in plant and ani- fraction is anthropogenic, and that contribution increases mal ranges, have been linked with high confidence to re- [149][150] nonlinearly with further warming. cent warming.[156] Future climate change is expected to particularly affect certain ecosystems, including tundra, mangroves, and coral reefs.[146] It is expected that most 3.5.2 Sea level rise ecosystems will be affected by higher atmospheric CO2 levels, combined with higher global temperatures.[157] Main articles: Sea level rise and Deglaciation Overall, it is expected that climate change will result in Sea level rise, has been estimated to be on average +2.6 the extinction of many species and reduced diversity of ecosystems.[158]

Increases in atmospheric CO2 concentrations have led [159] to an increase in ocean acidity. Dissolved CO2 increases ocean acidity, which is measured by lower pH values.[159] Between 1750 to 2000, surface-ocean pH has decreased by ≈0.1, from ≈8.2 to ≈8.1.[160] Surface- ocean pH has probably not been below ≈8.1 during the past 2 million years.[160] Projections suggest that surface- ocean pH could decrease by an additional 0.3–0.4 units by 2100.[161] Future ocean acidification could threaten coral reefs, fisheries, protected species, and other natural resources of value to society.[159][162] Ocean deoxygenation is projected to increase hypoxia by 10%, and triple suboxic waters (oxygen concentrations 98% less than the mean surface concentrations), for each Sparse records indicate that glaciers have been retreating since [163] the early 1800s. In the 1950s measurements began that allow 1 °C of upper Ocean warming. the monitoring of glacial mass balance, reported to the World Glacier Monitoring Service (WGMS) and the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). 3.5.4 Long-term effects

mm and +2.9 mm per year ± 0.4 mm since 1993. Addi- Main article: Long-term eﬀects of global warming tionally, sea level rise has accelerated in recent years.[151] Over the 21st century, the IPCC projects for a high emis- On the timescale of centuries to millennia, the magni- sions scenario, that global mean sea level could rise by tude of global warming will be determined primarily by 46 CHAPTER 3. GLOBAL WARMING

[164] anthropogenic CO2 emissions. This is due to carbon climate change are now observable at more locations than dioxide’s very long lifetime in the atmosphere.[164] before, on all continents and across ocean regions.[172] Stabilizing global average temperature would require re- The future social impacts of climate change will be [164] [173] ductions in anthropogenic CO2 emissions. Reduc- uneven. Many risks are expected to increase with [174] tions in emissions of non-CO2 anthropogenic greenhouse higher magnitudes of global warming. All regions gases (GHGs) (e.g., methane and nitrous oxide) would are at risk of experiencing negative impacts.[175] Low- [164][165] [176] also be necessary. For CO2, anthropogenic emis- latitude, less developed areas face the greatest risk. A sions would need to be reduced by more than 80% relative study from 2015 concluded that economic growth (Gross to their peak level.[164] Even if this were achieved, global domestic product) of poorer countries is much more im- average temperatures would remain close to their highest paired with projected future climate warming, than pre- level for many centuries.[164] viously thought.[177] A meta analysis of 56 studies concluded in 2014 that each 3.5.5 Large-scale and abrupt impacts degree of temperature rise will increase violence by up to 20%, which includes fist fights, violent crimes, civil unrest [178] Main article: Abrupt climate change or wars. Examples of impacts include: Climate change could result in global, large-scale changes [166] in natural and social systems. Two examples are • Food: Crop production will probably be negatively ocean acidification caused by increased atmospheric con- affected in low latitude countries, while effects at centrations of carbon dioxide, and the long-term melting northern latitudes may be positive or negative.[179] [167] of ice sheets, which contributes to sea level rise. Global warming of around 4.6 °C relative to pre- Some large-scale changes could occur abruptly, i.e., over industrial levels could pose a large risk to global and [180] a short time period, and might also be irreversible. An regional food security. example of abrupt climate change is the rapid release of methane and carbon dioxide from permafrost, which • Health: Generally impacts will be more negative would lead to amplified global warming.[168][169] Scien- than positive.[181] Impacts include: the effects of ex- tific understanding of abrupt climate change is generally treme weather, leading to injury and loss of life;[182] poor.[170] The probability of abrupt change for some cli- and indirect effects, such as undernutrition brought mate related feedbacks may be low.[168][171] Factors that on by crop failures.[183] may increase the probability of abrupt climate change include higher magnitudes of global warming, warming that occurs more rapidly, and warming that is sustained over 3.6.1 Habitat inundation longer time periods.[171]

3.6 Observed and expected eﬀects on social systems

Further information: Eﬀects of global warming § Social systems and Regional eﬀects of global warming § Regional impacts

Map showing where natural disasters caused/aggravated by The eﬀects of climate change on human systems, mostly global warming may occur. due to warming or shifts in precipitation patterns, or both, have been detected worldwide. Production of wheat and maize globally has been impacted by climate Further information: Eﬀects of climate change on change. While crop production has increased in some humans § Displacement/migration mid-latitude regions such as the UK and Northeast China, See also: Climate refugee economic losses due to extreme weather events have increased globally. There has been a shift from cold- to In small islands and mega deltas, inundation as a result of heat-related mortality in some regions as a result of warm- sea level rise is expected to threaten vital infrastructure ing. Livelihoods of indigenous peoples of the Arctic and human settlements.[184][185] This could lead to issues have been altered by climate change, and there is emerg- of homelessness in countries with low lying areas such ing evidence of climate change impacts on livelihoods of as Bangladesh, as well as statelessness for populations in indigenous peoples in other regions. Regional impacts of countries such as the Maldives and Tuvalu.[186] 3.8. DISCOURSE ABOUT GLOBAL WARMING 47

3.7 Possible responses to global sumptions are made about the availability of mitigation [194] warming technologies.

3.7.1 Mitigation 3.7.2 Adaptation

Main article: Climate change mitigation Main article: Adaptation to global warming Mitigation of climate change are actions to reduce Other policy responses include adaptation to climate change. Adaptation to climate change may be planned, either in reaction to or anticipation of climate change, or spontaneous, i.e., without government intervention.[195] Planned adaptation is already occurring on a limited basis.[189] The barriers, limits, and costs of future adaptation are not fully understood.[189] A concept related to adaptation is adaptive capacity, which is the ability of a system (human, natural or managed) to adjust to climate change (including climate variability and extremes) to moderate potential damages, to take advantage of opportunities, or to cope with consequences.[196] Unmitigated climate change (i.e., future climate change without efforts to limit greenhouse gas emissions) would, in the long term, be likely to exceed the capacity of natural, managed and human systems to adapt.[197] Environmental organizations and public figures have em- phasized changes in the climate and the risks they entail, while promoting adaptation to changes in infrastructural The graph on the right shows three “pathways” to meet the UN- needs and emissions reductions.[198] FCCC’s 2 °C target, labelled “global technology”, “decentralised solutions”, and “consumption change”. Each pathway shows how various measures (e.g., improved energy efficiency, increased 3.7.3 Climate engineering use of renewable energy) could contribute to emissions reductions. Image credit: PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Main article: Climate engineering Agency.[187]

greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, or enhance the ca- Climate engineering (sometimes called by the more ex- pacity of carbon sinks to absorb GHGs from the pansive term 'geoengineering'), is the deliberate modifi- atmosphere.[188] There is a large potential for future re- cation of the climate. It has been investigated as a possible response to global warming, e.g. by NASA[199] ductions in emissions by a combination of activities, [200] including: energy conservation and increased energy and the Royal Society. Techniques under research efficiency; the use of low-carbon energy technolo- fall generally into the categories solar radiation manage- gies, such as renewable energy, nuclear energy, and ment and carbon dioxide removal, although various other carbon capture and storage;[189][190] and enhancing car- schemes have been suggested. A study from 2014 inves- bon sinks through, for example, reforestation and pre- tigated the most common climate engineering methods venting deforestation.[189][190] and concluded they are either ineffective or have potentially severe side effects and cannot be stopped without Near- and long-term trends in the global energy system causing rapid climate change.[201] are inconsistent with limiting global warming at below 1.5 or 2 °C, relative to pre-industrial levels.[191][192] Pledges made as part of the Cancún agreements are broadly con- 3.8 Discourse about global warm- sistent with having a likely chance (66 to 100% probability) of limiting global warming (in the 21st century) at ing below 3 °C, relative to pre-industrial levels.[192] In limiting warming at below 2 °C, more stringent emis- 3.8.1 Political discussion sion reductions in the near-term would allow for less rapid reductions after 2030.[193] Many integrated mod- Main article: Politics of global warming els are unable to meet the 2 °C target if pessimistic as- Further information: 2011 United Nations Climate 48 CHAPTER 3. GLOBAL WARMING

Change Conference, 2012 United Nations Climate In ratifying the Kyoto Protocol, most developed coun- Change Conference and 2013 United Nations Climate tries accepted legally binding commitments to limit their Change Conference emissions. These ﬁrst-round commitments expired in Most countries are Parties to the United Nations Frame- 2012.[210] United States President George W. Bush re- jected the treaty on the basis that “it exempts 80% of the world, including major population centers such as China and India, from compliance, and would cause serious harm to the US economy.”[208]:5 At the 15th UNFCCC Conference of the Parties, held in 2009 at Copenhagen, several UNFCCC Parties produced the Copenhagen Accord.[211][212] Parties associated with the Accord (140 countries, as of November 2010)[213]:9 aim to limit the future increase in global mean temperature to below 2 °C.[214] The 16th Conference of the Par- ties (COP16) was held at Cancún in 2010. It produced an agreement, not a binding treaty, that the Parties should take urgent action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to meet a goal of limiting global warming to 2 °C above pre- industrial temperatures. It also recognized the need to consider strengthening the goal to a global average rise of 1.5 °C.[215]

3.8.2 Scientiﬁc discussion

Article 2 of the UN Framework Convention refers explicitly to [202] “stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations.” To stabilize See also: Scientific opinion on climate change and the atmospheric concentration of CO Surveys of scientists’ views on climate change 2, emissions worldwide would need to be dramatically reduced from their present level.[203] Most scientists agree that humans are contributing to observed climate change.[82][216] A meta study of academic work Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).[204] The ultimate objective of the Convention is to prevent papers concerning global warming, published between dangerous human interference of the climate system.[205] 1991 and 2011 and accessible from Web of Knowledge, As is stated in the Convention, this requires that GHG found that among those whose abstracts expressed a position on the cause of global warming, 97.2% supported concentrations are stabilized in the atmosphere at a level [217] where ecosystems can adapt naturally to climate change, the consensus view that it is man made. In an Octo- food production is not threatened, and economic devel- ber 2011 paper published in the International Journal of opment can proceed in a sustainable fashion.[206] The Public Opinion Research, researchers from George Ma- Framework Convention was agreed in 1992, but since son University analyzed the results of a survey of 489 then, global emissions have risen.[207] During negotia- American scientists working in academia, government, tions, the G77 (a lobbying group in the United Nations and industry. Of those surveyed, 97% agreed that that representing 133 developing nations)[208]:4 pushed for global temperatures have risen over the past century and a mandate requiring developed countries to "[take] the 84% agreed that “human-induced greenhouse warming” [209] is now occurring, only 5% disagreeing that human activ- lead” in reducing their emissions. This was justified [218][219] on the basis that: the developed world’s emissions had ity is a significant cause of global warming. Na- tional science academies have called on world leaders for contributed most to the stock of GHGs in the atmo- [220] sphere; per-capita emissions (i.e., emissions per head of policies to cut global emissions. population) were still relatively low in developing coun- In the scientific literature, there is a strong consensus tries; and the emissions of developing countries would that global surface temperatures have increased in recent grow to meet their development needs.[85]:290 This man- decades and that the trend is caused mainly by human- date was sustained in the Kyoto Protocol to the Frame- induced emissions of greenhouse gases. No scientific work Convention,[85]:290 which entered into legal effect body of national or international standing disagrees with in 2005.[210] this view.[221][222] 3.9. ETYMOLOGY 49

3.8.3 Discussion by the public and in pop- cern for either themselves or their families; this was 10 ular media points below the 2008 poll (63%). Latin America had the biggest rise in concern: 73% said global warming is a seri- [235] Main articles: Climate change denial, Global warming ous threat to their families. This global poll also found controversy and Media coverage of climate change that people are more likely to attribute global warming to human activities than to natural causes, except in the US where nearly half (47%) of the population attributed The global warming controversy refers to a variety of global warming to natural causes.[236] disputes, substantially more pronounced in the popular media than in the scientific literature,[223][224] regarding A March–May 2013 survey by Pew Research Center for the nature, causes, and consequences of global warming. the People & the Press polled 39 countries about global The disputed issues include the causes of increased global threats. According to 54% of those questioned, global [237] average air temperature, especially since the mid-20th warming featured top of the perceived global threats. century, whether this warming trend is unprecedented In a January 2013 survey, Pew found that 69% of Amer- or within normal climatic variations, whether humankind icans say there is solid evidence that the Earth’s aver- has contributed significantly to it, and whether the in- age temperature has been getting warmer over the past crease is wholly or partially an artifact of poor measure- few decades, up six points since November 2011 and 12 [238] ments. Additional disputes concern estimates of climate points since 2009. sensitivity, predictions of additional warming, and what the consequences of global warming will be. From 1990–1997 in the United States, conservative think 3.9 Etymology tanks mobilized to challenge the legitimacy of global warming as a social problem. They challenged the scientific evidence, argued that global warming will have ben- In the 1950s research suggested increasing temperatures, efits, and asserted that proposed solutions would do more and a 1952 newspaper reported “climate change”. This harm than good.[225] phrase next appeared in a November 1957 report in The Hammond Times which described Roger Revelle's re- Some people dispute aspects of climate change search into the effects of increasing human-caused CO2 [216][226] science. Organizations such as the libertarian emissions on the greenhouse effect, “a large scale global Competitive Enterprise Institute, conservative com- warming, with radical climate changes may result”. Both mentators, and some companies such as ExxonMobil phrases were only used occasionally until 1975, when have challenged IPCC climate change scenarios, funded Wallace Smith Broecker published a scientific paper on scientists who disagree with the scientific consensus, the topic; “Climatic Change: Are We on the Brink of and provided their own projections of the economic a Pronounced Global Warming?" The phrase began to [227][228][229][230] cost of stricter controls. Some fossil come into common use, and in 1976 Mikhail Budyko's fuel companies have scaled back their efforts in recent statement that “a global warming up has started” was [231] years, or even called for policies to reduce global widely reported.[239] Other studies, such as a 1971 MIT [232] warming. report, referred to the human impact as “inadvertent climate modification”, but an influential 1979 National Academy of Sciences study headed by Jule Charney fol- Surveys of public opinion lowed Broecker in using global warming for rising surface temperatures, while describing the wider effects of [240] Main article: Public opinion on climate change increased CO2 as climate change. In 1986 and November 1987 NASA climate scientist A 2010 poll by the Office for National Statistics found that James Hansen gave testimony to Congress on global 75% of UK respondents were at least “fairly convinced” warming, but gained little attention. There were increas- that the world’s climate is changing, compared to 87% in ing heatwaves and drought problems in the summer of a similar survey in 2006.[233] A January 2011 ICM poll in 1988, and when Hansen testified in the Senate on 23 the UK found 83% of respondents viewed climate change June he sparked worldwide interest.[241] He said: “global as a current or imminent threat, while 14% said it was no warming has reached a level such that we can ascribe threat. Opinion was unchanged from an August 2009 poll with a high degree of confidence a cause and effect rela- asking the same question, though there had been a slight tionship between the greenhouse effect and the observed polarisation of opposing views.[234] warming.”[242] Public attention increased over the sum- By 2010, with 111 countries surveyed, Gallup determined mer, and global warming became the dominant popular term, commonly used both by the press and in public that there was a substantial decrease since 2007–08 in the [240] number of Americans and Europeans who viewed global discourse. warming as a serious threat. In the US, just a little over In a 2008 NASA article on usage, Erik M. Conway de- half the population (53%) now viewed it as a serious con- fined Global warming as “the increase in Earth’s average 50 CHAPTER 3. GLOBAL WARMING surface temperature due to rising levels of greenhouse Commission, InterAcademy Council, International Union gases”, while Climate change was “a long-term change in of Geodesy and Geophysics, International Union for Qua- the Earth’s climate, or of a region on Earth.” ternary Research, National Association of Geoscience As effects such as changing patterns of rainfall and Teachers, National Research Council (US), Royal Mete- rising sea levels would probably have more impact orological Society, and World Meteorological Organiza- than temperatures alone, he considered “global climate tion. change” a more scientifically accurate term, and like the [3] Earth has already experienced almost 1/2 of the 2.0 °C Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the NASA (3.6 °F) described in the Cancún Agreement. In the last website would emphasise this wider context.[240] 100 years, Earth’s average surface temperature increased by about 0.8 °C (1.4 °F) with about two thirds of the increase occurring over just the last three decades.[27]

3.10 See also [4] The greenhouse effect produces an average worldwide temperature increase of about 33 °C (59 °F) compared • Climate change and agriculture to black body predictions without the greenhouse effect, not an average surface temperature of 33 °C (91 °F). The • Effects of global warming on oceans average worldwide surface temperature is about 14 °C (57 °F). • Environmental impact of the coal industry [5] A rise in temperature from 10 °C to 20 °C is not a doubling • Geologic temperature record of absolute temperature; a rise from (273 + 10) K = 283 K • to (273 + 20) K = 293 K is an increase of (293 − 283)/283 Global cooling = 3.5 %. • Glossary of climate change • Greenhouse gas emissions accounting 3.12 Citations • History of climate change science [1] 16 January 2015: NASA GISS: NASA GISS: NASA, • Index of climate change articles NOAA Find 2014 Warmest Year in Modern Record, in: Research News. NASA Goddard Institute for Space Stud- • Scientific opinion on climate change ies, New York, NY, USA. Accessed 20 February 2015

[2] Hartmann, D. L.; Klein Tank, A. M. G.; Rusticucci, M. (2013). FAQ 2.1 “2: Observations: Atmosphere and Sur- 3.11 Notes face” (PDF). IPCC WGI AR5 (Report). Evidence for a warming world comes from multiple independent climate [1] Scientific journals use “global warming” to describe an in- indicators, from high up in the atmosphere to the depths of creasing global average temperature just at earth’s surface, the oceans. They include changes in surface, atmospheric and most of these authorities further limit “global warm- and oceanic temperatures; glaciers; snow cover; sea ice; ing” to such increases caused by human activities or in- sea level and atmospheric water vapour. Scientists from all creasing greenhouse gases. over the world have independently verified this evidence many times. [2] The 2001 joint statement was signed by the national academies of science of Australia, Belgium, [3] “Myth vs Facts....”. EPA (US). 2013.The U.S. Global Brazil, Canada, the Caribbean, the People’s Repub- Change Research Program, the National Academy of lic of China, France, Germany, India, Indonesia, Ire- Sciences, and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate land, Italy, Malaysia, New Zealand, Sweden, and the Change (IPCC) have each independently concluded that [11] UK. The 2005 statement added Japan, Russia, and warming of the climate system in recent decades is 'un- the U.S. The 2007 statement added Mexico and South equivocal'. This conclusion is not drawn from any one Africa. The Network of African Science Academies, source of data but is based on multiple lines of evidence, and the Polish Academy of Sciences have issued sep- including three worldwide temperature datasets showing arate statements. Professional scientific societies in- nearly identical warming trends as well as numerous other clude American Astronomical Society, American Chem- independent indicators of global warming (e.g., rising sea ical Society, American Geophysical Union, American levels, shrinking Arctic sea ice). Institute of Physics, American Meteorological Society, American Physical Society, American Quaternary As- [4] Rhein, M.; Rintoul, S. R. (2013). “3: Observations: sociation, Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Ocean” (PDF). IPCC WGI AR5 (Report). p. 257. Ocean Society, Canadian Foundation for Climate and Atmo- warming dominates the global energy change inventory. spheric Sciences, Canadian Meteorological and Oceano- Warming of the ocean accounts for about 93% of the in- graphic Society, European Academy of Sciences and Arts, crease in the Earth’s energy inventory between 1971 and European Geosciences Union, European Science Founda- 2010 (high confidence), with warming of the upper (0 to tion, Geological Society of America, Geological Society 700 m) ocean accounting for about 64% of the total. Melt- of Australia, Geological Society of London-Stratigraphy ing ice (including Arctic sea ice, ice sheets and glaciers) 3.12. CITATIONS 51

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[5] IPCC, Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis [14] Lu, Jian; Vechhi, Gabriel A.; Reichler, Thomas - Summary for Policymakers, Observed Changes in the (2007). “Expansion of the Hadley cell under global Climate System, p. 2, in IPCC AR5 WG1 2013. “Warm- warming” (PDF). Geophysical Research Letters 34 ing of the climate system is unequivocal, and since the (6): L06805. Bibcode:2007GeoRL..3406805L. 1950s, many of the observed changes are unprecedented doi:10.1029/2006GL028443. over decades to millennia.” [15] On snowfall: [6] “CLIMATE CHANGE 2014: Synthesis Report. Sum- mary for Policymakers” (PDF). IPCC. Retrieved 7 March • Christopher Joyce (2010-02-15). “Get This: 2015. The following terms have been used to indicate Warming Planet Can Mean More Snow”. NPR. the assessed likelihood of an outcome or a result: virtu- • “Global warming means more snowstorms: scien- ally certain 99–100% probability, very likely 90–100%, tists”. 2011-03-01. likely 66–100%, about as likely as not 33–66%, unlikely 0–33%, very unlikely 0–10%, exceptionally unlikely 0– • “Does record snowfall disprove global warming?". 1%. Additional terms (extremely likely: 95–100%, more 2010-07-09. Retrieved 2014-12-14. likely than not >50–100%, more unlikely than likely 0– <50% and extremely unlikely 0–5%) may also be used [16] Battisti, David; Naylor, Rosamund L. (2009). “Historical when appropriate. warnings of future food insecurity with unprecedented seasonal heat”. Science 323 (5911): 240–4. [7] “CLIMATE CHANGE 2014: Synthesis Report. Sum- doi:10.1126/science.1164363. PMID 19131626. mary for Policymakers” (PDF). IPCC. Retrieved 7 March Retrieved 13 April 2012. 2015. The evidence for human influence on the climate system has grown since the Fourth Assessment Report [17] US NRC 2012, p. 26 (AR4). It is extremely likely that more than half of the observed increase in global average surface temperature [18] United Nations Framework Convention on Climate from 1951 to 2010 was caused by the anthropogenic in- Change (UNFCCC) (2011). “Status of Ratification of crease in greenhouse gas concentrations and other anthro- the Convention”. UNFCCC Secretariat: Bonn, Germany: pogenic forcings together UNFCCC.. Most countries in the world are Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate [8] America’s Climate Choices: Panel on Advancing the Change (UNFCCC), which has adopted the 2 °C target. Science of Climate Change; National Research Council As of 25 November 2011, there are 195 parties (194 (2010). Advancing the Science of Climate Change. Wash- states and 1 regional economic integration organization ington, D.C.: The National Academies Press. ISBN 0- (the European Union)) to the UNFCCC. 309-14588-0. (p1) ... there is a strong, credible body of evidence, based on multiple lines of research, docu- [19] “Article 2”. The United Nations Framework Convention menting that climate is changing and that these changes on Climate Change. The ultimate objective of this Con- are in large part caused by human activities. While much vention and any related legal instruments that the Confer- remains to be learned, the core phenomenon, scientific ence of the Parties may adopt is to achieve, in accordance questions, and hypotheses have been examined thoroughly with the relevant provisions of the Convention, stabiliza- and have stood firm in the face of serious scientific de- tion of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere bate and careful evaluation of alternative explanations. * at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic in- * * (p21-22) Some scientific conclusions or theories have terference with the climate system. Such a level should be been so thoroughly examined and tested, and supported by achieved within a time-frame sufficient to allow ecosys- so many independent observations and results, that their tems to adapt naturally to climate change, to ensure that likelihood of subsequently being found to be wrong is van- food production is not threatened and to enable economic ishingly small. Such conclusions and theories are then re- development to proceed in a sustainable manner. Such a garded as settled facts. This is the case for the conclusions level should be achieved within a time-frame sufficient to that the Earth system is warming and that much of this allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change, to warming is very likely due to human activities. ensure that food production is not threatened and to enable economic development to proceed in a sustainable man- [9] Stocker et al., Technical Summary, in IPCC AR5 WG1 ner, excerpt from the founding international treaty that 2013. took force on 21 March 1994.

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[22] Ch 4: Climate change and the energy outlook., in IEA [35] “Summary for Policymakers”. Direct Observations of Re- 2009, pp. 173–184 (pp.175-186 of PDF) cent Climate Change., in IPCC AR4 WG1 2007

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• Hinrichs, Kai-Uwe; Hmelo, Laura R.; Sylva, 3.14 Further reading Sean P. (21 February 2003). “Molecular Fos- sil Record of Elevated Methane Levels in Late • Association of British Insurers (June 2005). Pleistocene Coastal Waters”. Science 299 (5610): Financial Risks of Climate Change (PDF). 1214–1217. Bibcode:2003Sci...299.1214H. doi:10.1126/science.1079601. PMID 12595688. • Ammann, Caspar et al. (2007). “Solar inﬂu- • ence on climate during the past millennium: Hirsch, Tim (11 January 2006). “Plants revealed as Results from transient simulations with the methane source”. BBC. NCAR Climate Simulation Model” (PDF). • Hoyt, Douglas V.; Schatten, Kenneth H. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sci- (November 1993). “A discussion of plausi- ences of the United States of America 104 (10): ble solar irradiance variations, 1700–1992”. 3713–3718. Bibcode:2007PNAS..104.3713A. Journal of Geophysical Research 98 (A11): doi:10.1073/pnas.0605064103. PMC 1810336. 18,895–18,906. Bibcode:1993JGR....9818895H. PMID 17360418. Simulations with only natural doi:10.1029/93JA01944. forcing components included yield an early 20th century peak warming of ≈0.2 °C (≈1950 AD), • IPCC TAR SYR (2001). Watson, R. T.; and the which is reduced to about half by the end of the Core Writing Team, ed. Climate Change 2001: Syn- century because of increased volcanism thesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II, and III to the Third Assessment Report of the • Barnett, TP; Adam, JC; Lettenmaier, DP (17 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cam- November 2005). “Potential impacts of a bridge University Press. ISBN 0-521-80770-0. (pb: warming climate on water availability in snow- 0-521-01507-3) dominated regions” (ABSTRACT). Nature 438 (7066): 303–309. Bibcode:2005Natur.438..303B. • Jamet, S. and J. Corfee-Morlot (7 April 2009). doi:10.1038/nature04141. PMID 16292301. “Assessing the Impacts of Climate Change: 3.15. EXTERNAL LINKS 63

A Literature Review”. OECD Economics • Ruddiman, William F. (15 December 2005). Department Working Papers (OECD) (691). Earth’s Climate Past and Future. New York: Prince- doi:10.1787/224864018517.. Paper at IDEAS. ton University Press. ISBN 0-7167-3741-8.

• Karnaukhov, A. V. (2001). “Role of the Biosphere • Ruddiman, William F. (1 August 2005). Plows, in the Formation of the Earth’s Climate: The Green- Plagues, and Petroleum: How Humans Took Control house Catastrophe” (PDF). Biophysics 46 (6). of Climate. New Jersey: Princeton University Press. • Kenneth, James P. et al. (14 February 2003). ISBN 0-691-12164-8. Methane Hydrates in Quaternary Climate Change: • Schelling, Thomas C. (2002). “Greenhouse Effect”. The Clathrate Gun Hypothesis. American Geophys- In David R. Henderson (ed.). Concise Encyclope- ical Union. dia of Economics (1st ed.). Library of Economics • Keppler, Frank et al. (18 January 2006). “Global and Liberty. OCLC 317650570, 50016270 and Warming – The Blame Is not with the Plants”. Max 163149563 Planck Society. • Solanki, SK; Usoskin, IG; Kromer, B; Schüssler, • Lean, Judith L.; Wang, Y.M.; Sheeley, N.R. (De- M; Beer, J (23 October 2004). “Unusual activity cember 2002). “The effect of increasing so- of the Sun during recent decades compared to the lar activity on the Sun’s total and open magnetic previous 11,000 years” (PDF). Nature 431 (7012): flux during multiple cycles: Implications for solar 1084–1087. Bibcode:2004Natur.431.1084S. forcing of climate”. Geophysical Research Letters doi:10.1038/nature02995. PMID 15510145. 29 (24): 2224. Bibcode:2002GeoRL..29x..77L. doi:10.1029/2002GL015880. • Solanki, Sami K. et al. (28 July 2005). “Climate: How unusual is today’s solar ac- • Lerner, K. Lee; Lerner, K. Lee; Wilmoth, Brenda tivity? (Reply)" (PDF). Nature 436 (7050): (26 July 2006). Environmental issues: essential pri- E4–E5. Bibcode:2005Natur.436E...4S. mary sources. Thomson Gale. ISBN 1-4144-0625- doi:10.1038/nature04046. 8. • Sowers, Todd (10 February 2006). “Late Qua- • McKibben, Bill (2011). The Global Warming ternary Atmospheric CH Isotope Record Sug- Reader. OR Books. ISBN 978-1-935928-36-2. 4 gests Marine Clathrates Are Stable”. Science 311 • Muscheler, R; Joos, F; Müller, SA; Snowball, (5762): 838–840. Bibcode:2006Sci...311..838S. I (28 July 2005). “Climate: How unusual is doi:10.1126/science.1121235. PMID 16469923. today’s solar activity?" (PDF). Nature 436 (7012): • 1084–1087. Bibcode:2005Natur.436E...3M. Svensmark, Henrik et al. (8 February 2007). doi:10.1038/nature04045. PMID 16049429. “Experimental evidence for the role of ions in particle nucleation under atmospheric con- • Oerlemans, J. (29 April 2005). “Extracting ditions”. Proceedings of the Royal Society A a Climate Signal from 169 Glacier (FirstCite Early Online Publishing) 463 (2078): Records” (PDF). Science 308 (5722): 385–396. Bibcode:2007RSPSA.463..385S. 675–677. Bibcode:2005Sci...308..675O. doi:10.1098/rspa.2006.1773. (online version doi:10.1126/science.1107046. PMID 15746388. requires registration) • Purse, BV; Mellor, PS; Rogers, DJ; Samuel, AR; • Walter, KM; Zimov, SA; Chanton, JP; Verbyla, D; Mertens, PP; Baylis, M (February 2005). “Climate Chapin, F. S., 3rd (7 September 2006). “Methane change and the recent emergence of bluetongue in bubbling from Siberian thaw lakes as a posi- Europe” (ABSTRACT). Nature Reviews Microbi- tive feedback to climate warming”. Nature 443 ology 3 (2): 171–181. doi:10.1038/nrmicro1090. (7107): 71–75. Bibcode:2006Natur.443...71W. PMID 15685226. doi:10.1038/nature05040. PMID 16957728. • Revkin, Andrew C (5 November 2005). “Rise in • Wang, Y.-M.; Lean, J.L.; Sheeley, N. R. (20 May Gases Unmatched by a History in Ancient Ice”. The 2005). “Modeling the sun’s magnetic field and ir- New York Times. radiance since 1713” (PDF). Astrophysical Journal • Royal Society (2005). “Joint science academies’ 625 (1): 522–538. Bibcode:2005ApJ...625..522W. statement: Global response to climate change”. Re- doi:10.1086/429689. trieved 19 April 2009. • Roulstone, Ian and Norbury, John (2013). Invisible in the Storm: the role of mathematics in understand- 3.15 External links ing weather. Princeton University Press. (see Chap- ter 8) Research 64 CHAPTER 3. GLOBAL WARMING

• NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies – Global • A world with this much CO²: lessons from 4 million change research years ago • NOAA State of the Climate Report – U.S. and • Global Sea Level Rise Map global monthly state of the climate reports • Climate Change at the National Academies – repository for reports • Nature Reports Climate Change – free-access web resource • Met Oﬃce: Climate change – UK National Weather Service • Educational Global Climate Modelling (EdGCM) – research-quality climate change simulator • Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Inter- comparison – develops and releases standardized models such as CMIP3 (AR4) and CMIP5 (AR5)

Educational

• What Is Global Warming? – by National Geo- graphic • Global Climate Change Indicators – from NOAA • NOAA Climate Services – from NOAA • Skeptical Science: Getting skeptical about global warming skepticism • Global Warming Art, a collection of ﬁgures and images • Global Warming Frequently Asked Questions – from NOAA • Understanding Climate Change – Frequently Asked Questions – from UCAR • Global Warming: Center for Global Studies at the University of Illinois • Global Climate Change: NASA’s Eyes on the Earth – from NASA’s JPL and Caltech • OurWorld 2.0 – from the United Nations University • Center for Climate and Energy Solutions – business and politics • Climate change - EAA-PHEV Wiki – electric vehi- cles fueled with electricity from wind or solar power will reduce greenhouse gas pollution from the transportation sector • Climate Change Indicators in the United States – report by United States Environmental Protection Agency, 80 pp. • The World Bank - Climate Change - A 4 Degree Warmer World - We must and can avoid it Chapter 4

Greenhouse gas

Thermal radiation 4.1 Gases in Earth’s atmosphere into space: 195 Directly radiated Solar Radiation from surface: 40 absorbed by Earth 235 W/m² Main articles: Greenhouse eﬀect, Global warming and

Greenhouse gas Carbon dioxide in Earth’s atmosphere absorption: 350 67 Heat and energy 452 in the atmosphere 4.1.1 Greenhouse gases The Greenhouse 168 324 Eﬀect 492

Earth's land and ocean surface warmed to an average of 14℃

Greenhouse effect schematic showing energy flows between space, the atmosphere, and Earth’s surface. Energy influx and emittance are expressed in watts per square meter (W/m2).

A greenhouse gas (sometimes abbreviated GHG) is a gas in an atmosphere that absorbs and emits radiation within the thermal infrared range. This process is the fundamental cause of the greenhouse effect.[1] The primary greenhouse gases in the Earth’s atmosphere are water vapor, carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, and ozone. Without greenhouse gases, the average temperature of Earth’s surface would be about 15 °C (59 °F) colder than the present average of 14 °C (57 °F).[2][3][4] In the Solar System, the atmospheres of Venus, Mars and Titan also contain gases that cause a greenhouse effect. Atmospheric absorption and scattering at different wavelengths of electromagnetic waves. The largest absorption band of carbon Human activities since the beginning of the Industrial dioxide is in the infrared. Revolution (taken as the year 1750) have produced a 40% increase in the atmospheric concentration of carbon diox- Greenhouse gases are those that absorb and emit infrared ide, from 280 ppm in 1750 to 400 ppm in 2015.[5][6] This radiation in the wavelength range emitted by Earth.[1] In increase has occurred despite the uptake of a large portion order, the most abundant greenhouse gases in Earth’s at- of the emissions by various natural “sinks” involved in the mosphere are: [7][8] carbon cycle. Anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions (i.e., emissions produced by human activities) • Water vapor (H come from combustion of carbon-based fuels, principally 2O) wood, coal, oil, and natural gas.[9] • Carbon dioxide (CO2) It has been estimated that if greenhouse gas emissions • Methane (CH continue at the present rate, Earth’s surface temperature 4) could exceed historical values as early as 2047, with potentially harmful effects on ecosystems, biodiversity and • Nitrous oxide (N the livelihoods of people worldwide.[10] 2O)

65 66 CHAPTER 4. GREENHOUSE GAS

• Ozone (O 3)

• Chloroﬂuorocarbons (CFCs)

Atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases are determined by the balance between sources (emissions of the gas from human activities and natural systems) and sinks (the removal of the gas from the atmosphere by conversion to a diﬀerent chemical compound).[11] The proportion of an emission remaining in the atmosphere after a speciﬁed time is the "airborne fraction" (AF). More precisely, the annual AF is the ratio of the atmospheric increase in a given year to that year’s total emissions. For CO2 the AF over the last 50 years (1956–2006) has been increasing at 0.25 ± 0.21%/year.[12]

4.1.2 Non-greenhouse gases

Although contributing to many other physical and chemical reactions, the major atmospheric constituents, The false colors in this image represent concentrations of car- nitrogen (N bon monoxide in the lower atmosphere, ranging from about 390 2), oxygen (O parts per billion (dark brown pixels), to 220 parts per billion (red [13] 2), and argon (Ar), are not greenhouse gases. This is be- pixels), to 50 parts per billion (blue pixels). cause molecules containing two atoms of the same ele- ment such as N 2 and O requires reactions with the OH radical, produces an in- 2 and monatomic molecules such as argon (Ar) have no stantaneous reduction, since CO2 is a weaker greenhouse net change in their dipole moment when they vibrate and gas than methane; but it has a longer lifetime. As de- hence are almost totally unaffected by infrared radiation. scribed below this is not the whole story, since the oxida- Although molecules containing two atoms of different el- tions of CO and CH ements such as carbon monoxide (CO) or hydrogen chlo- 4 are intertwined by both consuming OH radicals. In any ride (HCl) absorb IR, these molecules are short-lived in case, the calculation of the total radiative effect needs to the atmosphere owing to their reactivity and solubility. include both the direct and indirect forcing. Because they do not contribute significantly to the greenhouse effect, they are usually omitted when discussing A second type of indirect effect happens when chemical greenhouse gases. reactions in the atmosphere involving these gases change the concentrations of greenhouse gases. For example, the destruction of non-methane volatile organic compounds 4.1.3 Indirect radiative effects (NMVOCs) in the atmosphere can produce ozone. The size of the indirect effect can depend strongly on where [14] Some gases have indirect radiative effects (whether or not and when the gas is emitted. they are a greenhouse gas themselves). This happens in Methane has a number of indirect effects in addition two main ways. One way is that when they break down to forming CO2. Firstly, the main chemical that de- in the atmosphere they produce another greenhouse gas. stroys methane in the atmosphere is the hydroxyl radi- For example, methane and carbon monoxide (CO) are cal (OH). Methane reacts with OH and so more methane oxidized to give carbon dioxide (and methane oxidation means that the concentration of OH goes down. Effec- also produces water vapor; that will be considered below). tively, methane increases its own atmospheric lifetime Oxidation of CO to CO2 directly produces an unambigu- and therefore its overall radiative effect. The second ef- ous increase in radiative forcing although the reason is fect is that the oxidation of methane can produce ozone. subtle. The peak of the thermal IR emission from the Thirdly, as well as making CO2 the oxidation of methane Earth’s surface is very close to a strong vibrational ab- produces water; this is a major source of water vapor −1 sorption band of CO2 (667 cm ). On the other hand, in the stratosphere, which is otherwise very dry. CO the single CO vibrational band only absorbs IR at much and NMVOC also produce CO2 when they are oxidized. higher frequencies (2145 cm−1), where the ~300 K ther- They remove OH from the atmosphere and this leads to mal emission of the surface is at least a factor of ten lower. higher concentrations of methane. The surprising effect On the other hand, oxidation of methane to CO2, which of this is that the global warming potential of CO is three 4.2. IMPACTS ON THE OVERALL GREENHOUSE EFFECT 67

[15] times that of CO2. The same process that converts When ranked by their direct contribution to the green- NMVOC to carbon dioxide can also lead to the forma- house effect, the most important are:[16] tion of tropospheric ozone. Halocarbons have an indirect In addition to the main greenhouse gases listed above, effect because they destroy stratospheric ozone. Finally other greenhouse gases include sulfur hexafluoride, hydrogen can lead to ozone production and CH hydrofluorocarbons and perfluorocarbons (see IPCC list 4 increases as well as producing water vapor in the [14] of greenhouse gases). Some greenhouse gases are not of- stratosphere. ten listed. For example, nitrogen trifluoride has a high global warming potential (GWP) but is only present in [23] 4.1.4 Contribution of clouds to Earth’s very small quantities. greenhouse effect 4.2.1 Proportion of direct effects at a given The major non-gas contributor to the Earth’s greenhouse effect, clouds, also absorb and emit infrared radiation and moment thus have an effect on radiative properties of the greenhouse gases. Clouds are water droplets or ice crystals sus- It is not possible to state that a certain gas causes an ex- pended in the atmosphere.[16][17] act percentage of the greenhouse effect. This is because some of the gases absorb and emit radiation at the same frequencies as others, so that the total greenhouse effect is not simply the sum of the influence of each gas. 4.2 Impacts on the overall green- The higher ends of the ranges quoted are for each gas house effect alone; the lower ends account for overlaps with the other gases.[16][17] In addition, some gases such as methane are known to have large indirect effects that are still being quantified.[24]

4.2.2 Atmospheric lifetime

Aside from water vapor, which has a residence time of about nine days,[25] major greenhouse gases are well mixed and take many years to leave the atmosphere.[26] Although it is not easy to know with precision how long it takes greenhouse gases to leave the atmosphere, there are estimates for the principal greenhouse gases. Jacob (1999)[27] defines the lifetime τ of an atmospheric species X in a one-box model as the average time that a molecule Schmidt et al. (2010)[18] analysed how individual components of X remains in the box. Mathematically τ can be defined of the atmosphere contribute to the total greenhouse effect. They as the ratio of the mass m (in kg) of X in the box to its estimated that water vapor accounts for about 50% of the Earth’s removal rate, which is the sum of the flow of X out of the greenhouse effect, with clouds contributing 25%, carbon dioxide box ( Fout ), chemical loss of X ( L ), and deposition of 20%, and the minor greenhouse gases and aerosols accounting X( D ) (all in kg/s): τ = m .[27] If one stopped Fout+L+D for the remaining 5%. In the study, the reference model atmo- pouring any of this gas into the box, then after a time τ , [19] sphere is for 1980 conditions. Image credit: NASA. its concentration would be about halved.

The contribution of each gas to the greenhouse effect is The atmospheric lifetime of a species therefore measures affected by the characteristics of that gas, its abundance, the time required to restore equilibrium following a sud- and any indirect effects it may cause. For example, the den increase or decrease in its concentration in the at- direct radiative effect of a mass of methane is about 72 mosphere. Individual atoms or molecules may be lost or times stronger than the same mass of carbon dioxide over deposited to sinks such as the soil, the oceans and other a 20-year time frame[20] but it is present in much smaller waters, or vegetation and other biological systems, reduc- concentrations so that its total direct radiative effect is ing the excess to background concentrations. The average smaller, in part due to its shorter atmospheric lifetime. time taken to achieve this is the mean lifetime. On the other hand, in addition to its direct radiative im- Carbon dioxide has a variable atmospheric lifetime, and pact, methane has a large, indirect radiative effect be- cannot be specified precisely.[28] The atmospheric life- [29] cause it contributes to ozone formation. Shindell et al. time of CO2 is estimated of the order of 30–95 years. [21] (2005) argue that the contribution to climate change This figure accounts for CO2 molecules being removed from methane is at least double previous estimates as a from the atmosphere by mixing into the ocean, photo- result of this effect.[22] synthesis, and other processes. However, this excludes 68 CHAPTER 4. GREENHOUSE GAS

the balancing fluxes of CO2 into the atmosphere from after six or seven decades, the impact of the two gases the geological reservoirs, which have slower character- is about equal, and from then on methane’s relative role [30] [35] istic rates. While more than half of the CO2 emitted continues to decline. The decrease in GWP at longer is removed from the atmosphere within a century, some times is because methane is degraded to water and CO2 fraction (about 20%) of emitted CO2 remains in the at- through chemical reactions in the atmosphere. [31] [32] [33] mosphere for many thousands of years. Similar Examples of the atmospheric lifetime and GWP relative issues apply to other greenhouse gases, many of which to CO2 for several greenhouse gases are given in the fol- have longer mean lifetimes than CO2. E.g., N2O has a lowing table:[20] mean atmospheric lifetime of 114 years.[20] The use of CFC-12 (except some essential uses) has been phased out due to its ozone depleting properties.[36] 4.2.3 Radiative forcing The phasing-out of less active HCFC-compounds will be completed in 2030.[37] The Earth absorbs some of the radiant energy received from the sun, reflects some of it as light and reflects or radiates the rest back to space as heat.[34] The Earth’s 4.3 Natural and anthropogenic surface temperature depends on this balance between incoming and outgoing energy.[34] If this energy bal- sources ance is shifted, the Earth’s surface could become warmer or cooler, leading to a variety of changes in global climate.[34] A number of natural and man-made mechanisms can affect the global energy balance and force changes in the Earth’s climate.[34] Greenhouse gases are one such mechanism.[34] Greenhouse gases in the atmosphere absorb and re-emit some of the outgoing energy radiated from the Earth’s surface, causing that heat to be retained in the lower atmosphere.[34] As explained above, some greenhouse gases remain in the atmosphere for decades or even centuries, and therefore can affect the Earth’s energy balance over a long time period.[34] Factors that influence Earth’s energy balance can be quantified in terms of "radiative climate forcing.”[34] Positive radiative forcing indicates warming (for example, by increasing incoming energy or decreasing the amount of energy that es- capes to space), while negative forcing is associated with cooling.[34]

4.2.4 Global warming potential

The global warming potential (GWP) depends on both the efficiency of the molecule as a greenhouse gas and its Top: Increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide levels as measured atmospheric lifetime. GWP is measured relative to the in the atmosphere and reflected in ice cores. Bottom: The amount same mass of CO2 and evaluated for a specific timescale. of net carbon increase in the atmosphere, compared to carbon Thus, if a gas has a high (positive) radiative forcing but emissions from burning fossil fuel. also a short lifetime, it will have a large GWP on a 20-year scale but a small one on a 100-year scale. Conversely, if a Aside from purely human-produced synthetic halo- molecule has a longer atmospheric lifetime than CO2 its carbons, most greenhouse gases have both natural GWP will increase with the timescale considered. Car- and human-caused sources. During the pre-industrial bon dioxide is defined to have a GWP of 1 over all time Holocene, concentrations of existing gases were roughly periods. constant. In the industrial era, human activities have Methane has an atmospheric lifetime of 12 ± 3 years. added greenhouse gases to the atmosphere, mainly through the burning of fossil fuels and clearing of The 2007 IPCC report lists the GWP as 72 over a time [39][40] scale of 20 years, 25 over 100 years and 7.6 over 500 forests. years.[20] A 2014 analysis, however, states that although The 2007 Fourth Assessment Report compiled by the methane’s initial impact is about 100 times greater than IPCC (AR4) noted that “changes in atmospheric con- that of CO2, because of the shorter atmospheric lifetime, centrations of greenhouse gases and aerosols, land cover 4.3. NATURAL AND ANTHROPOGENIC SOURCES 69

This diagram shows a simpliﬁed representation of the contemporary global carbon cycle. Changes are measured in gigatons of carbon per year (GtC/y). Canadell et al. (2007) estimated the growth rate of global average atmospheric CO2 for 2000–2006 as 1.93 parts-per-million per year (4.1 petagrams of carbon per year).[38] and solar radiation alter the energy balance of the climate system”, and concluded that “increases in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations is very likely to have caused most of the increases in global average temperatures since the mid-20th century”.[41] In AR4, “most of” is deﬁned as more than 50%. Abbreviations used in the two tables below: ppm = parts- per-million; ppb = parts-per-billion; ppt = parts-per- trillion; W/m2 = watts per square metre Chapter 5

Sea level rise

This article is about the current and future rise in sea level mm and +2.9 mm per year ± 0.4 mm since 1993. Addi- associated with global warming. For sea level changes in tionally, sea level rise has accelerated in recent years.[2] Earth’s history, see Sea level. For the period between 1870 and 2004, global average sea levels are estimated to have risen a total of 195 mm, and 1.7 mm ± 0.3 mm per year, with a significant acceleration of sea-level rise of 0.013 ± 0.006 mm per year per year. If this acceleration would stay constant, the 1990 to 2100 sea level rise would range from 280 to 340 mm.[3] Another study calculated the period from 1950 to 2009, and measurements show an average annual rise in sea level of 1.7 ± 0.3 mm per year, with satellite data showing a rise of 3.3 ± 0.4 mm per year from 1993 to 2009.[4] Sea level rise is one of several lines of evidence that support the view that the global climate has recently warmed.[5] In 2007, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Trends in global average absolute sea level, 1880–2013.[1] (IPCC) stated that it is very likely human-induced (anthropogenic) warming contributed to the sea level rise observed in the latter half of the 20th century.[6] The 2013 IPCC report (AR5) concluded, "there is high confidence that the rate of sea level rise has increased during the last two centuries, and it is likely that GMSL (Global Mean Sea Level) has accelerated since the early 1900’s.[7] Sea level rises can considerably influence human populations in coastal and island regions and natural environments like marine ecosystems.[8][9] Sea level rise is expected to continue for centuries.[10] Because of the slow inertia, long response time for parts of the climate system, Changes in sea level since the end of the last glacial it has been estimated that we are already committed to a episode. sea-level rise of approximately 2.3 meters for each de- Sea level rise has been estimated to be on average +2.6 gree of temperature rise within the next 2,000 years.[11] It has been suggested that besides CO2 emissions reductions, a short term action to reduce sea level rise is to cut emissions of heat trapping gases such as methane and particulates such as soot.[12][13]

5.1 Mechanism

See also: Sea level § Sea level change

Map of the Earth with a six-meter sea level rise represented in There are two main mechanisms that contribute to ob- red. served sea level rise:[14] (1) thermal expansion: ocean wa-

70 5.2. PAST CHANGES IN SEA LEVEL 71

ical observations, the longest instrumental records and the observed rate of 20th century sea level rise. For example, geological observations indicate that during the last 2,000 years, sea level change was small, with an average rate of only 0.0–0.2 mm per year. This compares to an average rate of 1.7 ± 0.5 mm per year for the 20th century.[18]

• Church and White (2006) report an acceleration of SLR since 1870.[3] This is a revision since 2001, when the TAR stated that measurements have detected no signiﬁcant acceleration in the recent rate of sea level rise.

Ocean heat content (OHC), NOAA 2012 • Based on tide gauge data, the rate of global average sea level rise during the 20th century lies in the ter expands as it warms - because of the increase in ocean range 0.8 to 3.3 mm/yr, with an average rate of 1.8 heat content;[15] and (2) the melting of major stores of mm/yr.[19] land ice like ice sheets and glaciers. • Recent studies of Roman wells in Caesarea and of On the timescale of centuries to millennia, the melting of Roman piscinae in Italy indicate that sea level stayed ice sheets could result in even higher sea level rise. Partial fairly constant from a few hundred years AD to a few deglaciation of the Greenland ice sheet, and possibly the hundred years ago. West Antarctic ice sheet, could contribute 4 to 6 m (13 to 20 ft) or more to sea level rise.[16] • Based on geological data, global average sea level may have risen at an average rate of about 0.5 mm/yr over the last 6,000 years and at an average rate of 5.2 Past changes in sea level 0.1–0.2 mm/yr over the last 3,000 years. • Since the Last Glacial Maximum about 20,000 years ago, sea level has risen by more than 120 m (av- eraging 6 mm/yr) as a result of melting of major ice sheets. A rapid rise took place between 15,000 and 6,000 years ago at an average rate of 10 mm/yr which accounted for 90 m of the rise; thus in the period since 20,000 years BP (excluding the rapid rise from 15–6 kyr BP) the average rate was 3 mm/yr.

• A significant event was Meltwater pulse 1A (mwp- 1A), when sea level rose approximately 20 m over a 500-year period about 14,200 years ago. This is a rate of about 40 mm/yr. The primary source may have been meltwater from the Antarctic ice sheet, perhaps causing the south-to- Comparison of two sea level reconstructions during the last 500 north cold pulse marked by the Southern Hemi- Ma. The scale of change during the last glacial/interglacial tran- sphere Huelmo/Mascardi Cold Reversal, which pre- sition is indicated with a black bar. Note that over most of geologic history, long-term average sea level has been significantly ceded the Northern Hemisphere Younger Dryas. higher than today. Other recent studies suggest a Northern Hemisphere source for the meltwater in the Laurentide ice sheet. Various factors affect the volume or mass of the ocean, • leading to long-term changes in eustatic sea level. The Paleoclimate ice sheet disintegration is typical on two primary influences are temperature (because the den- the timescale of ∼6 ky, but there are also examples sity of water depends on temperature), and the mass of ice sheet melting, causing a sea level rise of sev- of water locked up on land and sea as fresh water in eral meters per century, based on forcings smaller rivers, lakes, glaciers, polar ice caps, and sea ice. Over than the BAU (Today`s Business as usual) scenario [20] much longer geological timescales, changes in the shape (Hansen 2007). of oceanic basins and in land–sea distribution affect sea • A two degrees Celsius of warming would warm the level. Earth above Eemian levels, move conditions closer Sea level rose by 6 cm during the 19th century and 19 cm to the Pliocene climate, a time when sea level was in in the 20th century.[17] Evidence for this includes geolog- the range of 25 meters higher than today.[21] 72 CHAPTER 5. SEA LEVEL RISE

5.3 Projections 21st century of between 56 and 200 cm (22 and 79 in). The NRC describes the IPCC projections as “conservative”.[28] In 2011, Rignot and others projected a rise of 32 centimetres (13 in) by 2050. Their projection included increased contributions from the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets. Use of two completely different approaches reinforced the Rignot projection.[29][30] In its Fifth Assessment Report (2013), The IPCC found that recent observations of global average sea level rise at a rate of 3.2 [2.8 to 3.6] mm per year is consistent with the sum of contributions from observed thermal ocean expansion due to rising temperatures (1.1 [0.8 to 1.4] mm per year, glacier melt (0.76 [0.39 to 1.13] mm per year), Greenland ice sheet melt (0.33 [0.25 to 0.41] mm per year), Antarctic ice sheet melt (0.27 [0.16 to 0.38] mm This graph shows the projected change in global sea level rise per year), and changes to land water storage (0.38 [0.26 if atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations were to ei- to 0.49] mm per year). The report had also concluded ther quadruple or double. [22] The projection is based on sev- that if emissions continue to keep up with the worst case eral multi-century integrations of a GFDL global coupled ocean- IPCC scenarios, global average sea level could rise by atmosphere model. These projections are the expected changes nearly 1m by 2100 (0.52−0.98 m from a 1986-2005 base- due to thermal expansion of sea water alone, and do not include line). If emissions follow the lowest emissions scenario, the effect of melted continental ice sheets. With the effect of then global average sea level is projected to rise by be- ice sheets included, the total rise could be larger by a substan- tween 0.28−0.6 m by 2100 (compared to a 1986−2005 tial factor.[22] Image credit: NOAA GFDL. baseline).[31] See also: Projections of future climate change and Future The Third National Climate Assessment (NCA), released sea level May 6, 2014, projected a sea level rise of 1 to 4 feet by 2100 (30–120 cm). Decision makers who are particularly susceptible to risk may wish to use a wider range of scenarios from 8 inches to 6.6 feet by 2100.[32] 5.3.1 21st century

The 2007 Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC 4) pro- 5.3.2 After 2100 jected century-end sea levels using the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). SRES developed emis- There is a widespread consensus that substantial long- sions scenarios to project climate-change impacts.[23] term sea-level rise will continue for centuries to come.[10] The projections based on these scenarios are not IPCC 4 estimated that at least a partial deglaciation of predictions,[24] but reﬂect plausible estimates of fu- the Greenland ice sheet, and possibly the West Antarc- ture social and economic development (e.g., economic tic ice sheet, would occur given a global average temper- growth, population level).[25] The six SRES “marker” sce- ature increase of 1–4 °C (relative to temperatures over narios projected sea level to rise by 18 to 59 centimetres the years 1990–2000).[33] This estimate was given about a (7.1 to 23.2 in).[26] Their projections were for the time 50% chance of being correct.[34] The estimated timescale period 2090–99, with the increase in level relative to aver- was centuries to millennia, and would contribute 4 to 6 age sea level over the 1980–99 period. This estimate did metres (13 to 20 ft) or more to sea levels over this period. not include all of the possible contributions of ice sheets. Hansen (2007), assumed an ice sheet contribution of 1 cm for the decade 2005–15, with a potential ten year dou- 5.4 Models bling time for sea-level rise, based on a nonlinear ice sheet [20] response, which would yield 5 m this century. See also: Ice-sheet dynamics, Ice-sheet model and Research from 2008 observed rapid declines in ice-mass Climate model balance from both Greenland and Antarctica, and concluded that sea-level rise by 2100 is likely to be at least There is the possibility of a rapid change in glaciers, twice as large as that presented by IPCC AR4, with an [35] [27] ice sheets, and hence sea level. Predictions of such a upper limit of about two meters. change are highly uncertain due to a lack of scientiﬁc un- Projections assessed by the US National Research Coun- derstanding. Modeling of the processes associated with cil (2010)[28] suggest possible sea level rise over the a rapid ice-sheet and glacier change could potentially in- 5.5. CONTRIBUTION 73

crease future projections of sea-level rise. gravimetry from satellites determined that Greenland was losing more than 200 billion tons of ice per year, in ac- Hansen (2007), concluded that paleoclimate ice sheet [36] models generally do not include physics of ice streams, cord with loss estimates from ground measurement. The rate of ice loss was accelerating,[37] having grown eﬀects of surface melt descending through crevasses and [38] lubricating basal ﬂow, or realistic interactions with the from 137 gigatons in 2002–2003. ocean. The calibration of projected modelling for future sea-level rise is generally done with a linear projection of • The total global ice mass lost from Greenland, future sea level. Thus, does not include potential nonlin- Antarctica and Earth’s glaciers and ice caps during ear collapse of an ice sheet.[20] 2003–2010 was about 4.3 trillion tons (1,000 cubic miles), adding about 12 mm (0.5 in) to global sea level, enough ice to cover an area comparable to the 5.5 Contribution United States 50 cm (1.5 ft) deep.[39] • The melting of small glaciers and polar ice caps on the margins of Greenland and the Antarctic Penin- sula melt, would increase sea level around 0.5 m. Melting of the Greenland ice sheet or the Antarctic ice sheet would produce 7.2 m and 61.1 m of sea- level rise, respectively.[40]

It is estimated that Antarctica, if fully melted, would contribute more than 60 metres of sea level rise, and Green- land would contribute more than 7 metres. Small glaciers and ice caps on the margins of Greenland and the Antarc- tic Peninsula might contribute about 0.5 metres. While the latter figure is much smaller than for Antarctica or Greenland it could occur relatively quickly (within the coming century) whereas melting of Greenland would be slow (perhaps 1,500 years to fully deglaciate at the fastest likely rate) and Antarctica even slower.[41] However, this calculation does not account for the possibility that as meltwater flows under and lubricates the larger ice sheets, they could begin to move much more rapidly towards the sea.[42][43] In 2002, Rignot and Thomas found that the West Antarc- tic and Greenland ice sheets were losing mass, while the East Antarctic ice sheet was probably in balance (although they could not determine the sign of the mass balance for The East Antarctic ice sheet).[44] Kwok and Comiso (J. Climate, v15, 487–501, 2002) also discovered Close-up of Ross Ice Shelf, the largest ice shelf of Antarctica, that temperature and pressure anomalies around West about the size of France and up to several hundred metres thick. Antarctica and on the other side of the Antarctic Penin- sula correlate with recent Southern Oscillation events. See also: Ice shelf In 2005 it was reported that during 1992–2003, East Antarctica thickened at an average rate of about 18 Each year about 8 mm of precipitation (liquid equiva- mm/yr while West Antarctica showed an overall thinning lent) falls on the ice sheets in Antarctica and Greenland, of 9 mm/yr. associated with increased precipitation. A mostly as snow, which accumulates and over time forms gain of this magnitude is enough to slow sea-level rise by glacial ice. Much of this precipitation began as water 0.12 ± 0.02 mm/yr.[45] vapor evaporated from the ocean surface. If no ice re- turned to the oceans, sea level would drop 8 mm every year. To a first approximation, the same amount of wa- 5.5.1 Antarctica ter appeared to return to the ocean in icebergs and from ice melting at the edges. Scientists previously had es- See also: Antarctica § Ice mass and global sea level timated which is greater, ice going in or coming out, called the mass balance, important because a nonzero bal- On the Antarctic continent itself, the large volume of ice ance causes changes in global sea level. High-precision present stores around 70% of the world’s fresh water.[46] 74 CHAPTER 5. SEA LEVEL RISE

outflow glaciers in the Amundsen Sea Embayment could have more than doubled this figure for the year 2006.[49] Thomas et al. found evidence of an accelerated contribution to sea level rise from West Antarctica.[52] The data showed that the Amundsen Sea sector of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet was discharging 250 cubic kilome- tres of ice every year, which was 60% more than precipitation accumulation in the catchment areas. This alone was sufficient to raise sea level at 0.24 mm/yr. Further, thinning rates for the glaciers studied in 2002–03 had increased over the values measured in the early 1990s. The Processes around an Antarctic ice shelf bedrock underlying the glaciers was found to be hundreds of metres deeper than previously known, indicating exit routes for ice from further inland in the Byrd Subpolar This ice sheet is constantly gaining ice from snowfall and Basin. Thus the West Antarctic ice sheet may not be as losing ice through outflow to the sea. stable as has been supposed. Sheperd et al. 2012, found that different satellite methods A 2009 study found that the rapid collapse of West were in good agreement and combing methods leads to Antarctic Ice Sheet would raise sea level by 3.3 metres more certainty with East Antarctica, West Antarctica, and (11 ft).[53] the Antarctic Peninsula changing in mass by +14 ± 43, – 65 ± 26, and –20 ± 14 gigatonnes per year.[47] 5.5.2 Glaciers

East Antarctic ice sheet (EAIS) Main articles: Retreat of glaciers since 1850 and Glacier mass balance Main article: East Antarctic Ice Sheet Observational and modelling studies of mass loss from East Antarctica is a cold region with a ground-base above glaciers and ice caps indicate a contribution to sea-level sea level and occupies most of the continent. This area is rise of 0.2–0.4 mm/yr, averaged over the 20th century. dominated by small accumulations of snowfall which be- The results from Dyurgerov show a sharp increase in the comes ice and thus eventually seaward glacial flows. The contribution of mountain and subpolar glaciers to sea- mass balance of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet as a whole level rise since 1996 (0.5 mm/yr) to 1998 (2 mm/yr) with is thought to be slightly positive (lowering sea level) or an average of about 0.35 mm/yr since 1960.[54] Of inter- near to balance.[48][49] However, increased ice outflow has est also is Arendt et al., who estimate the contribution of been suggested in some regions.[49][50] Alaskan glaciers of 0.14±0.04 mm/yr between the mid- 1950s to the mid-1990s, increasing to 0.27 mm/yr in the In 2011 ice-penetrating radar led to the creation of the middle and late 1990s.[55] first high-resolution topographic map of one of the last uncharted regions of Earth: the Aurora Subglacial Basin, an immense ice-buried lowland in East Antarctica larger 5.5.3 Greenland than Texas. The map reveals some of the largest fjords or ice cut channels on Earth. Because the basin lies kilo- Main article: Greenland ice sheet metres below sea level, seawater could penetrate beneath the ice, causing portions of the ice sheet to collapse and float off to sea. The map is expected to improve models In 2004 Rignot et al. estimated a contribution of of ice sheet dynamics.[51] 0.04 ± 0.01 mm/yr to sea level rise from South East Greenland.[57] In the same year, Krabill et al. estimate a net contribution from Greenland to be at least 0.13 West Antarctic ice sheet (WAIS) mm/yr in the 1990s.[58] Joughin et al. have measured a doubling of the speed of Jakobshavn Isbræ between 1997 Main article: West Antarctic Ice Sheet and 2003.[59] This is Greenland’s largest outlet glacier; it drains 6.5% of the ice sheet, and is thought to be respon- West Antarctica is currently experiencing a net outflow of sible for increasing the rate of sea-level rise by about 0.06 millimetres per year, or roughly 4% of the 20th-century glacial ice, which will increase global sea level over time. [60] A review of the scientific studies looking at data from rate of sea-level increase. In 2004, Rignot et al. estimated a contribution of 0.04±0.01 mm/yr to sea-level 1992 to 2006 suggested a net loss of around 50 gigatons of [57] ice per year was a reasonable estimate (around 0.14 mm rise from southeast Greenland. of sea-level rise),[48] although significant acceleration of Rignot and Kanagaratnam produced a comprehensive 5.6. EFFECTS OF SEA-LEVEL RISE 75

5.6 Eﬀects of sea-level rise

Map of major cities of the world most vulnerable to sea level rise

The IPCC TAR WGII report (Impacts, Adaptation Vul- nerability) notes that current and future climate change would be expected to have a number of impacts, particularly on coastal systems.[64] Such impacts may include increased coastal erosion, higher storm-surge flooding, in- hibition of primary production processes, more extensive coastal inundation, changes in surface water quality and groundwater characteristics, increased loss of property and coastal habitats, increased flood risk and potential loss of life, loss of non-monetary cultural resources and values, impacts on agriculture and aquaculture through decline in soil and water quality, and loss of tourism, Greenland 2007 melt anomaly, measured as the difference be- recreation, and transportation functions. tween the number of days on which melting occurred in 2007 There is an implication that many of these impacts will compared to the average annual melting days from 1988– be detrimental—especially for the three-quarters of the 2006[56] world’s poor who depend on agriculture systems.[65] The report does, however, note that owing to the great diver- study and map of the outlet glaciers and basins of sity of coastal environments; regional and local differ- Greenland.[61] They found widespread glacial accelera- ences in projected relative sea level and climate changes; tion below 66 N in 1996 which spread to 70 N by 2005; and differences in the resilience and adaptive capacity of and that the ice sheet loss rate in that decade increased ecosystems, sectors, and countries, the impacts will be from 90 to 200 cubic km/yr; this corresponds to an extra highly variable in time and space. 0.25–0.55 mm/yr of sea level rise. The IPCC report of 2007 estimated that accelerated melting of the Himalayan ice caps and the resulting rise in sea In July 2005 it was reported that the Kangerdlugssuaq glacier, on Greenland’s east coast, was moving towards levels would likely increase the severity of flooding in the short term during the rainy season and greatly magnify the sea three times faster than a decade earlier. Kangerd- lugssuaq is around 1,000 m thick, 7.2 km (4.5 miles) the impact of tidal storm surges during the cyclone sea- wide, and drains about 4% of the ice from the Green- son. A sea-level rise of just 400 mm in the Bay of Bengal land ice sheet.[62] Measurements of Kangerdlugssuaq in would put 11 percent of the Bangladesh’s coastal land un- 1988 and 1996 showed it moving at between 5 and 6 derwater, creating 7–10 million climate refugees. km/yr (3.1–3.7 miles/yr), while in 2005 that speed had Sea level rise could also displace many shore-based pop- increased to 14 km/yr (8.7 miles/yr). ulations: for example it is estimated that a sea level rise of just 200 mm could create 740,000 homeless people in According to the 2004 Arctic Climate Impact Assess- [66] ment, climate models project that local warming in Nigeria. Greenland will exceed 3 °C during this century. Also, Future sea-level rise, like the recent rise, is not expected ice-sheet models project that such a warming would ini- to be globally uniform. Some regions show a sea-level rise tiate the long-term melting of the ice sheet, leading to substantially more than the global average (in many cases a complete melting of the Greenland ice sheet over sev- of more than twice the average), and others a sea level eral millennia, resulting in a global sea level rise of about fall.[67] However, models disagree as to the likely pattern seven metres.[63] of sea level change.[68] 76 CHAPTER 5. SEA LEVEL RISE

5.6.1 Island nations also reported that about two thirds of the world’s cities with over five million people are located in these low- IPCC assessments suggest that deltas and small island lying coastal areas. Future sea level rise could lead to states are particularly vulnerable to sea-level rise caused potentially catastrophic difficulties for shore-based com- by both thermal expansion and increased ocean water. munities in the next centuries: for example, many major Sea level changes have not yet been conclusively proven cities such as London, New Orleans, and New York al- to have directly resulted in environmental, humanitarian, ready need storm-surge defenses, and would need more or economic losses to small island states, but the IPCC if the sea level rose, though they also face issues such as and other bodies have found this a serious risk scenario subsidence.[78][79] [69] in coming decades. Re-insurance company Swiss Re estimates an economic Maldives, Tuvalu, and other low-lying countries are loss for southeast Florida in 2030, of $33 billion from among the areas that are at the highest level of risk. The climate-related damages.[80][81] Miami has been listed UN’s environmental panel has warned that, at current as “the number-one most vulnerable city worldwide” in rates, sea level would be high enough to make the Mal- terms of potential damage to property from storm-related dives uninhabitable by 2100.[70][71] flooding and sea-level rise.[82] Many media reports have focused on the island nations of the Pacific, notably the Polynesian islands of Tuvalu, 5.6.3 Extreme sea level rise events which based on more severe flooding events in recent years, were thought to be “sinking” due to sea level Downturn of Atlantic meridional overturning circulation rise.[72] A scientific review in 2000 reported that based (AMOC), has been tied to extreme regional sea level rise on University of Hawaii gauge data, Tuvalu had experi- (1-in-850 year event). Between 2009–2010, coastal sea enced a negligible increase in sea level of 0.07 mm a year levels north of New York City increased by 128 mm over the past two decades, and that the El Niño South- within two years. This jump is unprecedented in the ern Oscillation (ENSO) had been a larger factor in Tu- tide gauge records, which collects data since a couple of valu’s higher tides in recent years.[73] A subsequent study centuries.[83][84] by John Hunter from the University of Tasmania, however, adjusted for ENSO effects and the movement of the gauge (which was thought to be sinking). Hunter concluded that Tuvalu had been experiencing sea-level rise of 5.7 Sea level measurement about 1.2 mm per year.[73][74] The recent more frequent flooding in Tuvalu may also be due to an erosional loss of 5.7.1 Satellites land during and following the actions of 1997 cyclones Gavin, Hina, and Keli.[75] Besides the issues that flooding brings, such as soil salin- isation, the islands states themselves would also become dissolved over time, as the islands become uninhabitable or completely submerged by the sea. Once this happens, all rights on the surrounding area (sea) are removed. This area can be huge as rights extend to a radius of 224 nau- tical miles (414 km) around the entire island state. Any resources, such as fossil oil, minerals and metals, within this area can be freely dug up by anyone and sold without needing to pay any commission to the (now dissolved) [76] island state. Jason-1 continues the same sea surface measurements begun by Options that have been proposed to assist island nations TOPEX/Poseidon. It will be followed by the Ocean Surface To- to adapt to rising sea level include abandoning islands, pography Mission on Jason-2 and by a planned future Jason-3 building dikes, and building upwards.[77] In 1992 the TOPEX/Poseidon satellite was launched to record the change in sea level.[85] Current rates of sea 5.6.2 Cities level rise from satellite altimetry have been estimated in the range of 2.9–3.4 ± 0.4–0.6 mm per year for 1993– 2010.[86][87][88][89][90][90] This exceeds those from tide See also: List of cities impacted by current sea level rise gauges. It is unclear whether this represents an increase over the last decades; variability; true differences be- A study in the April, 2007 issue of Environment and Ur- tween satellites and tide gauges; or problems with satel- banization reports that 634 million people live in coastal lite calibration.[91] Due to calibration errors of the first areas within 30 feet (9.1 m) of sea level. The study satellite – Topex/Poseidon, sea levels have been slightly 5.8. ADAPTATION 77

1993–2012 Sea level trends from satellite altimetry overestimated until 2015, which resulted in masking of ongoing sea level rise acceleration.[92]

5.7.2 Tide gauge

Amsterdam

The longest running sea-level measurements are recorded at Amsterdam, in the Netherlands—part of which (about [93] 25%) lies beneath sea level, beginning in 1700. US sea-level trends 1900–2003

Australia (9.1 mm) per year along the Louisiana Coast (due to land sinking), to a drop of a few inches per decade in parts of In Australia, data collected by the Commonwealth Sci- Alaska (due to post-glacial rebound). The rate of sea level entific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) rise increased during the 1993–2003 period compared show the current global mean sea level trend to be 3.2 with the longer-term average (1961–2003), although it [94] mm/yr., a doubling of the rate of the total increase is unclear whether the faster rate reflected a short-term of about 210mm that was measured from 1880 to 2009, variation or an increase in the long-term trend.[99] which reflected an average annual rise over the entire 129- year period of about 1.6 mm/year.[95] One study showed no acceleration in sea level rise in US tide gauge records during the 20th century.[100] However, Australian record collection has a long time horizon, in- another study found that the rate of rise for the US At- cluding measurements by an amateur meteorologist be- lantic coast during the 20th century was far higher than ginning in 1837 and measurements taken from a sea- during the previous two thousand years.[101] level benchmark struck on a small cliff on the Isle of the Dead[96] near the Port Arthur convict settlement on 1 July 1841. These records, when compared with data recorded by modern tide gauges, reinforce the recent comparisons 5.8 Adaptation of the historic sea level rise of about 1.6 mm/year, with the sharp acceleration in recent decades.[97] In 2008, the Dutch Delta Commission (Deltacommissie), Continuing extensive sea level data collection by Aus- advised in a report that the Netherlands would need a tralia’s (CSIRO) is summarized in in its finding of mean massive new building program to strengthen the country’s sea level trend to be 3.2 mm/yr. As of 2003 the National water defenses against the anticipated effects of global Tidal Centre of the Bureau of Meteorology managed 32 warming for the next 190 years. This commission was tide gauges covering the entire Australian coastline, with created in September 2007, after the damage caused some measurements available starting in 1880.[98] by Hurricane Katrina prompted reflection and prepara- tions. Those included drawing up worst-case plans for evacuations. The plan included more than €100 billion United States (US$144 bn), in new spending through the year 2100 to take measures, such as broadening coastal dunes and Tide gauges in the United States reveal considerable vari- strengthening sea and river dikes. The commission said ation because some land areas are rising and some are the country must plan for a rise in the North Sea up to sinking. For example, over the past 100 years, the rate of 1.3 metres (4 ft 3 in) by 2100, rather than the previously sea level rise varied from about an increase of 0.36 inches projected 0.80 metres (2 ft 7 in), and plan for a 2–4 metre 78 CHAPTER 5. SEA LEVEL RISE

(6.5–13 feet) rise by 2200.[102] [8] Bindoﬀ, N.L., J. Willebrand, V. Artale, A, Cazenave, J. Gregory, S. Gulev, K. Hanawa, C. Le Quéré, S. Levitus, The New York City Panel on Climate Change (NPCC), Y. Nojiri, C.K. Shum, L.D. Talley and A. Unnikrishnan is an eﬀort to prepare the New York City area for climate (2007), “Section 5.5.1: Introductory Remarks”, in IPCC change. AR4 WG1 2007, Chapter 5: Observations: Ocean Climate Miami Beach is spending $500 million in the next years Change and Sea Level, ISBN 978-0-521-88009-1 to address sea-level rise. Actions include a pump drainage [9] Fischlin et al., “Section 4.4.9: Oceans and shallow seas – [103] system, and to raise roadways and sidewalks. Impacts”, in IPCC AR4 WG2 2007, Chapter 4: Ecosys- tems, their Properties, Goods and Services, p. 234

[10] America’s Climate Choices: Panel on Advancing the Sci- 5.9 See also ence of Climate Change, Board on Atmospheric Sci- ences and Climate, Division on Earth and Life Stud- • Carbon cycle ies, NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL OF THE NA- TIONAL ACADEMIES (2010). “7 Sea Level Rise • Coastal Development and the Coastal Environment”. Advancing the Science of Climate Change. Washington, D.C.: The National • Coastal sediment supply Academies Press. p. 245. ISBN 978-0-309-14588-6. Retrieved 2011-06-17. • Eﬀects of global warming on oceans [11] Anders Levermann, Peter U. Clark, Ben Marzeion, Glenn • Hydrosphere A. Milne, David Pollard, Valentina Radic, and Alexander Robinson (13 June 2013). “The multimillennial sea-level • Islands First commitment of global warming”. PNAS.

• Standard sea level [12] Cuts in some greenhouse gases could slow sea level rise; “Methane, ozone and other short-lived pollutants have a • Transgression (geology) big impact on ocean heights” April 12, 2013 Vol.183 #9 Science News 5.10 Notes [13] doi:10.1038/nclimate1869 [14] IPCC, FAQ 5.1: Is Sea Level Rising?, in IPCC AR4 WG1 [1] “Climate Change Indicators in the United States: Sea 2007. level”. United States Environmental Protection Agency. [15] Albritton et al., Technical Summary, Box 2: What causes May 2014. sea level to change?, in IPCC TAR WG1 2001. [2] Christopher S. Watson, Neil J. White, John A. Church, [16] IPCC, Summary for Policymakers, Section C. Current Matt A. King, Reed J. Burgette & Benoit Legresy (11 knowledge about future impacts – Magnitudes of impact May 2015). “Unabated global mean sea-level rise over in IPCC AR4 WG2 2007. the satellite altimeter era”. PNAS. [17] Jevrejeva, Svetlana; J. C. Moore; A. Grinsted; P. L. [3] Church, John; White, Neil (January 6, 2006). Woodworth (April 2008). “Recent global sea level ac- “A 20th century acceleration in global sea- celeration started over 200 years ago?". Geophysical Re- level rise”. Geophysical Research Letters 33: search Letters 35 (8). Bibcode:2008GeoRL..35.8715J. L01602. Bibcode:2006GeoRL..3301602C. doi:10.1029/2008GL033611. doi:10.1029/2005GL024826. L01602. Retrieved 11 May 2015. pdf is here [18] Bindoﬀ et al., Chapter 5: Observations: Oceanic Climate Change and Sea Level, Executive summary, in IPCC AR4 [4] Nicholls, Robert J.; Cazenave, Anny (18 June WG1 2007. 2010). “Sea-Level Sea-Level Rise and Its Im- pact on Coastal Zones”. Science Magazine 328 [19] Anisimov et al., Chapter 11: Changes in Sea Level, Table (5985): 1517–1520. Bibcode:2010Sci...328.1517N. 11.9, in IPCC TAR WG1 2001. doi:10.1126/science.1185782. [20] J E Hansen (2007). “Scientiﬁc reticence and sea level [5] Solomon et al., Technical Summary, Section 3.4 Consis- rise”. Environmental Research Letters (IOPScience). tency Among Observations, in IPCC AR4 WG1 2007; doi:10.1088/1748-9326/2/2/024002. Hegerl et al., Executive summary, Section 1.3: Consis- tency of changes in physical and biological systems with [21] NASA (8 December 2011). “Paleoclimate Record Points warming, in IPCC AR4 SYR 2007. Toward Potential Rapid Climate Changes”.

[6] Hegerl et al., Chapter 9: Understanding and Attributing [22] This article incorporates public domain material from the Climate Change, in IPCC AR4 WG1 2007. NOAA document: NOAA GFDL, Geophysical Fluid Dy- namics Laboratory - Climate Impact of Quadrupling CO2, [7] “Sea Level Change - Chapter 13” (PDF). IPCC. 2013. Princeton, NJ, USA: NOAA GFDL 5.10. NOTES 79

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• Fahnestock, Mark (December 4, 2004), "Report • Providing new homes for climate exiles Sujatha shows movement of glacier has doubled speed", Byravan and Sudhir Chella Rajan, 2006 University of New Hampshire press release. Ac- • cessed December 19, 2005 New perspectives for the future of the Maldives Nils-Axel Mörner, Michael Tooley, Göran Possnert, • Leuliette, E.W., R.S. Nerem, and G.T. Mitchum 2004 (2004). “Calibration of TOPEX/Poseidon and • Jason Altimeter Data to Construct a Continuous “Physical Agents of Land Loss: Relative Sea Level”. Record of Mean Sea Level Change”. Marine An Overview of Coastal Land Loss: With Empha- Geodesy 27 (1–2). sis on the Southeastern United States. US Geological Survey. Retrieved 14 February 2005. • National Snow and Ice Data Center (March 14, • The Global Sea Level Observing System (GLOSS) 2005), "Is Global Sea Level Rising?". Accessed De- cember 19, 2005 • Surgewatch, database for UK ﬂood events • INQUA commission on Sea Level Changes and Coastal Evolution. “IPCC again” (PDF). Archived Maps that show a rise in sea levels from the original (PDF) on 2004-07-25. Retrieved 2004-07-25. • Sea Level Rise and Coastal Flooding Impacts (NOAA) • Connor, Steve (2005-07-25). “Independent Online Edition”. The Independent (London). Retrieved • Sea Level Trends (NOAA) 2005-12-19.

• Maumoon Abdul Gayoom. “Address by his Excel- lency Mr. Maumoon Abdul Gahoom, President of the Republic of Maldives, at thenineteenth special session of the United Nations General Assembly for the purpose of an overall review and appraisal of theimplementation of agenda 21 – June 24, 1997”. Retrieved 2006-01-06.

• Pilkey, Orrin and Robert Young, The Rising Sea, Shearwater, July 2009 ISBN 978-1-59726-191-3

• Douglas, Bruce C. (1995). “Global sea level change: Determination and interpretation”. Reviews of Geophysics 33: 1425– 1432. Bibcode:1995RvGeo..33.1425D. doi:10.1029/95RG00355.

5.13 External links

• Third National Climate Assessment Sea Level Rise Key Message

• “University of Colorado at Boulder Sea Level Change”.

• Incorporating Sea Level Change Scenarios at the Local Level Outlines eight steps a community can take to develop site-appropriate scenarios

• East Coast faces faster sea level rise; Cities from North Carolina to Massachusetts see waters rising more rapidly July 28, 2012; Vol.182 #2 (p. 17) Science News

• Sea Level Rise:Understanding the past – Improving projections for the future 84 CHAPTER 5. SEA LEVEL RISE

5.14 Text and image sources, contributors, and licenses

5.14.1 Text

• Adaptation to global warming Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Adaptation_to_global_warming?oldid=669602331 Contributors: Bryan Derksen, Fubar Obfusco, Edward, Fred Bauder, Gabbe, William M. Connolley, Tpbradbury, Dragons flight, Raul654, Donar- reiskoffer, ChrisO~enwiki, Jakohn, Stephan Schulz, Phanly, Alan Liefting, Quarl, Rich Farmbrough, Vsmith, Vapour, Dave souza, Ben- der235, R. S. Shaw, Pearle, Musiphil, Rd232, Ricky81682, Tony Sidaway, Geraldshields11, Woohookitty, MONGO, Tabletop, Audiovideo, Atari2600tim, Mandarax, Deltabeignet, BD2412, Rjwilmsi, Eyu100, Fish and karate, DF5GO, Wragge, Wavelength, Gyre, Tznkai, RussBot, Lincolnite, Joel7687, Kortoso, Nikkimaria, Chase me ladies, I'm the Cavalry, Arthur Rubin, NHSavage, SmackBot, Greg- mellott, Hardyplants, Jushi, Richard001, Z-d, Woer$, Dean1970, Iridescent, Paulsuckow, GiantSnowman, CmdrObot, Valereee, Avada Kedavra, Pseudo-Richard, Zinjixmaggir, Ajnauron, MikeWren, Enigmatical, Cydebot, Kevinp2, Narayanese, Ssilvers, KimDabelstein- Petersen, Gralo, Merbabu, Dfrg.msc, Nick Number, SvenAERTS, Sbandrews, Fyunck(click), Prolog, Narssarssuaq, Sln3412, PhilKnight, Skyemoor, Brusegadi, Beagel, Prester John, JaGa, Mschiffler, Flood Manager, PrestonH, J.delanoy, UBeR, Shay Guy, Jorfer, Woood, Sven42, Jimtitus, Wrecksitup, Enescot, VolkovBot, Lager7~enwiki, Marekzp, UnitedStatesian, HybridBoy, Biscuittin, LarsHolmberg, An- drewjlockley, Happysailor, MaynardClark, Nopetro, PhilMacD, Envirocorrector, Sfan00 IMG, ClueBot, The Thing That Should Not Be, Mild Bill Hiccup, ErnieLowe, Michielvd, Winston365, L.tak, Fdsbgdsf, DumZiBoT, Kerres, Token Bulgarian, PSimeon, Nathan Johnson, Addbot, ERK, DOI bot, Nigel Montcrief, SaunderM, SamatBot, Tide rolls, Zorrobot, Luckas-bot, Yobot, KamikazeBot, AnomieBOT, Kevin Brumage, Citation bot, Vpras18, Shortby, Sam Yi, Jacksieber, Bfakenham, GrouchoBot, Shadowjams, Mkumari, FrescoBot, Al- cesuk, Mikima, Chevymontecarlo, Citation bot 1, DrilBot, Pinethicket, James Doehring, StenSmith, Esther Shields, Cnwilliams, Kelly Fountain, Never Fad Away, Trappist the monk, SocSci123, Sagan666, Rosemaryburton1, YellowFives, King Korn, Hot Kafe, Rjwilmsi- Bot, Farnshon, DASHBot, EmausBot, John of Reading, Lhoaxt, Clarke Simpson, ZéroBot, Durka1, H3llBot, Hyblackeagle22, Lesallaex, Whensyte, Climateschultz, Bacamat, ClueBot NG, OOpic, Frietjes, Monsoon Waves, Kevin Gorman, Helpful Pixie Bot, Wbm1058, Gob Lofa, BG19bot, NewsAndEventsGuy, Northamerica1000, Abject Normality, Melissamigr, Njpeek, Climatechangeadaptation, 184wiki0, Krishnakrishnamurthy, Climateca, Climatekarl, HAmin86, Mogism, Luke Maier, Numbermaniac, MSinger526, Koscherm, Laurelie237, CoffeeWithMarkets, SambarnardODI, I am One of Many, Lliwrelgub, Jdzurisin, Budhathokyp, Luxure, Stamptrader, Mario.Chavarria.10, SWOldfield, Asiaknowledge, Monkbot, Gregoryrlewis, Pvilafl and Anonymous: 167

• Effects of global warming Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Effects_of_global_warming?oldid=667382320 Contributors: AxelBoldt, Ed Poor, Stokerm, Ewen, Leandrod, Edward, Boud, Bewildebeast, Fred Bauder, Ixfd64, Ahoerstemeier, Mac, William M. Connolley, Stefan-S, Netsnipe, Vanished user 5zariu3jisj0j4irj, Janko, Stone, Dragons flight, SEWilco, Dcsohl, Raul654, Wetman, Robbot, Ross- nixon, Altenmann, Stephan Schulz, Rursus, Phanly, Alan Liefting, Dave6, Giftlite, MPF, Mporter, Tom harrison, Art Carlson, Cool Hand Luke, Hokanomono, No Guru, Curps, Saaga, Mboverload, Adam McMaster, Alvestrand, Bobblewik, Neilc, Auximines, SarekOfVulcan, Antandrus, Skywolf, Jossi, Ot, Anythingyouwant, Erik Garrison, Anirvan, Grstain, Venu62, CALR, RossPatterson, Rich Farmbrough, Vsmith, Vapour, JimR, Moshiach, Paul August, Bender235, ESkog, Jensbn, Tirin, Aude, RoyBoy, Leif, Bobo192, Nigelj, Evolauxia, Shenme, Viriditas, La goutte de pluie, MPerel, Silverback, Merope, Orangemarlin, Spitzl, Mrzaius, Rd232, Geo Swan, Andrewpmk, Craigy144, Plumbago, John Quiggin, Mac Davis, Mrholybrain, Hu, Mbimmler, Tony Sidaway, Nallan, H2g2bob, BlastOButter42, Gene Nygaard, Dan100, Vanished user dfvkjmet9jweflkmdkcn234, Burkinaboy, Woohookitty, Pol098, JBellis, Chasrmartin, Duncan.france, MONGO, Knuckles, Thebogusman, Optichan, John Hill, Prashanthns, Dysepsion, Atari2600tim, MrSomeone, Mandarax, BD2412, Kb- dank71, Bikeable, Rjwilmsi, Koavf, Daniel Collins, Keimzelle, Sango123, FayssalF, Titoxd, Wragge, Duagloth, RexNL, TeaDrinker, Theo Pardilla, Sharkface217, Bgwhite, Simesa, UkPaolo, YurikBot, Wavelength, Sceptre, Jimp, Mukkakukaku, RussBot, Arjuna909, Sarran- duin, Witan, Splash, Splette, Brian A Schmidt, Van der Hoorn, Gaius Cornelius, CambridgeBayWeather, Wimt, Gustavb, NawlinWiki, EWS23, SEWilcoBot, Psi-kat, Chunky Rice, RazorICE, Prickus, Nick, Ragesoss, Facethefacts, Mlouns, Xiroth, Nicholas Perkins, Aaron Schulz, Nethgirb, IceCreamAntisocial, Rktect, WAS 4.250, FF2010, MCB, PTSE, Imaninjapirate, Lappado, Arthur Rubin, NHSavage, C-randles, Wsiegmund, Orcaborealis, Naught101, Kevin, Spliffy, Davidof, Johnpseudo, MagneticFlux, Kungfuadam, Roke, Saikiri, One, Hal peridol, Crystallina, Havocrazy, SmackBot, Moeron, Reedy, Jacek Kendysz, Anastrophe, DTM, Delldot, Xavierfrenette, Gaff, Ellip- sis, Gilliam, Ohnoitsjamie, Hmains, Betacommand, ERcheck, The monkeyhate, GoneAwayNowAndRetired, Chris the speller, Keegan, Jcc1, Persian Poet Gal, RDBrown, Rmt2m, Raymond arritt, Bonesiii, MalafayaBot, Afasmit, Agnana, Baa, Epastore, Aridd, Colonies Chris, Sct72, Kotra, Can't sleep, clown will eat me, Sommers, Zvar, Addshore, Isonomia, TotalSpaceshipGuy3, NoIdeaNick, BocoROTH, Cordless Larry, Nils Simon, Dreadstar, Eran of Arcadia, Nrcprm2026, IrisKawling, MartinRe, BlueGoose, Jason.stover, Egyptian language, Smithsmith, Mostlyharmless, Vina-iwbot~enwiki, Takowl, Pilotguy, FelisLeo, Ohconfucius, Autopilot, Shintsu, Peltoms, Rory096, Kuru, Euchiasmus, SilkTork, Loodog, Deditos, JorisvS, Woer$, NYCJosh, Wickethewok, Ghw777, Scetoaux, Aleenf1, Bilby, Pflatau, Ekrub-ntyh, Anguis, MarkSutton, Smith609, Pondle, Slakr, Stwalkerster, Martinp23, Bendzh, Optakeover, Michael Greiner, AdultSwim, Ryulong, Tasfan, User At Work, Michael McGuffie, Dean1970, Hu12, Emx~enwiki, Iridescent, Derf noxid, IFinishWhatIStar, The Gi- ant Puffin, Slicedoranges, Joseph Solis in Australia, 10014derek, Makgraf, Mrdthree, Delta x, Saturday, Demoscn, JayHenry, Tawkerbot2, Lahiru k, Eastlaw, Ethii, JForget, Bigcoon, Hucz, Pseudo-Richard, MarsRover, Moreschi, Zinjixmaggir, JettaMann, Rudjek, Fowler Pierre, Bingomzan, Cydebot, Lightblade, Samuell, Clayoquot, Scott14, DumbBOT, Ssilvers, Omicronpersei8, Napamick, Zalgo, Lo2u, Click23, Mattisse, JamesAM, Thijs!bot, Epbr123, Barticus88, Ultra34343434, Henk65, KimDabelsteinPetersen, Gralo, Möchtegern, John254, Tapir Terrific, A3RO, Chrisdab, Chet nc, Eljamoquio, RFerreira, Mailseth, Srose, Big Bird, Dalej78, Mentifisto, AntiVandalBot, Crabula, Edokter, Professor33, RapidR, TimVickers, Chill doubt, Aliwalla, Myanw, Snowangel 10510, Narssarssuaq, Dogru144, BenB4, Kirrages, Lawilkin, LittleOldMe, Magioladitis, Skyemoor, Indigoboo, VoABot II, Wikidudeman, Weser, Yandman, Masterpoe, Mjdon67, Harelx, Yashtulsyan, Brusegadi, Bleh999, Gabriel Kielland, Alexllew, Kalecokat, Cpl Syx, Novickas, PoliticalJunkie, Glen, DerHexer, Jdorwin, Gorton k, Oren0, FisherQueen, Edvard818, MartinBot, PAK Man, Mandaglione, Arjun01, Pupster21, Ohhitscrystal, Rettetast, Roasty- toast, Sm8900, AlexiusHoratius, Mausy5043, Paranomia, J.delanoy, Rgoodermote, AstroHurricane001, R. Baley, Rlsheehan, UBeR, Dbiel, Jrsnbarn, Sukee2, Casual dude, Gzkn, Tmcdonnell, Theantinorway, Katalaveno, Enuja, Touisiau, Mikael Häggström, Gurchzilla, JayJasper, Oguz32~enwiki, Count23, SmilesALot, SJP, Tatrgel, Jorfer, ThinkBlue, Woood, Cometstyles, Brandonromero, Islandman92, Enescot, CardinalDan, Funandtrvl, Indomaster, VolkovBot, ABF, DSRH, RingtailedFox, QuackGuru, Democrat1, Philip Trueman, Marekzp, BuickCenturyDriver, M0onlightx, Mclover08, Smartguy583, Seraphim, Melsaran, Tricky Wiki44, Leafyplant, Lou.weird, Air-con noble, Vpwatts, Cremepuff222, Complex (de), TraustiV, Gorank4, Alex.rosenheim, Bogden400, Smojarro, Agüeybaná, Mackabean, Brianga, Iceage77, Ciggy101, Nagy, Brainiac2595, Cderoose, Snowman frosty, HybridBoy, Red, Givegains, Ikariam3944, GirasoleDE, Rtol, Jak- sap, PlanetStar, Tiddly Tom, Penguinz71193, Wheasley, Jsc83, Dawn Bard, Triwbe, Dburdenbates, Yintan, Jason Patton, Andrewjlockley, DamoclesSword, Grundle2600, Sunny910910, Xenophon777, AnneDELS, Bob98133, Oxymoron83, Antonio Lopez, Smilesfozwood, An- drew curnow, Steven Zhang, Lightmouse, Dylan12390, Iain99, Hobartimus, Maelgwnbot, James AL Williams, Sphilbrick, Florentino floro, 5.14. TEXT AND IMAGE SOURCES, CONTRIBUTORS, AND LICENSES 85

Harrypottersux, DRTllbrg, Savie Kumara, Geodegiraffe, Maxschmelling, Meltwaternord, Sagredo, Virgoapoorva, Loren.wilton, ClueBot, Atletiker, Mariordo, GWeng420, Rumping, Kennvido, Foxj, Voxpuppet, Mild Bill Hiccup, Shinpah1, Doseiai2, CounterVandalismBot, Joebloggs99, Tomasdemul, 21tom92, Otolemur crassicaudatus, Puchiko, 718 Bot, Awickert, Excirial, Gnome de plume, Bruceanthro, Tornadou, PixelBot, Tgmonkeyman, Feline Hymnic, Abrech, Lartoven, Alex.g12345, Sun Creator, Chickenfarmer73, Katiemaher, Rick DeLong, Dekisugi, ANOMALY-117, O.Duke, Muro Bot, Born1913, Thingg, Aitias, Christmastree1225, Belchfire, NJGW, Sterculius, Boehner, Jeff dowter, DumZiBoT, Life of Riley, Chemical Euphoria, Dog and Pony Show, Mel Sharples, XLinkBot, Pichpich, Nathan Johnson, Algkalv, Chanakal, The Aviv, Badgernet, Atomicdor, Stjohnson31, RyanCross, Dylzo13, BallsmahoneyREOW, Klundarr, Ad- dbot, Stevenrl, Wyatt Stringfellow, CurtisSwain, Balla567, Zaragoza2008, Balla69~enwiki, DOI bot, Sword and Shield, Thailboat, Gre- cian Formula, Kinderhaus, Macedonian King, Cuspid Groove, Baunret, Eve’s Plumb, Brekass, Wavie Gravy, Listing Port, Passmethenuts, Adamsrock, CanadianLinuxUser, Dr. Dongle, Jmko22, Mentisock, Bev Bevins, Lance Yeltsin, Etribs, Illi Racor, Reeljay, LinkFA-Bot, Little Red Wagon Painted Blue, Crystalangel09, Shel Stevens, Manmobile, The Moons of Jupiter, Tough as Steel, Gabi Radler, Emcorr, Li Teng-Hue, Lightbot, Meyer Lemon, Medallion of Phat, Belly of the Beast, BennyQuixote, Benjamin Weaver, Jarble, J. Johnson, Yllie, Legobot, Yobot, Legobot II, Librsh, Shenstar, Adi, Tayladarcy, Megan Reyes, Shawine, KamikazeBot, Punctilius, AnomieBOT, Kevin Bru- mage, Archon 2488, Short Brigade Harvester Boris, Citation bot, Unilli, Gilo1969, Magicxcian, Srich32977, J04n, Mathonius, Polargeo, Menwith, Michael93555, Airborne84, Citation bot 1, Diwas, Redrose64, Druep, Julzes, Chatfecter, LaesaMajestas, Full-date unlinking bot, Elekhh, FoxBot, Trappist the monk, D climacus, Samuel Belkins, RjwilmsiBot, Deagle AP, EmausBot, John of Reading, H3llBot, SporkBot, Bsansvsage, Teaktl17, Theaitetos, Coastwise, Benjamin9832, Jimcham17, Dougmcdonell, Helpful Pixie Bot, Wbm1058, Bib- code Bot, Sokavik, BG19bot, NewsAndEventsGuy, Northamerica1000, Op47, Jfhutson, Jami430, David.moreno72, IjonTichyIjonTichy, Dexbot, Jcardazzi, Everymorning, Neo Poz, Jwratner1, Anniepresto, Monkbot, Filedelinkerbot, Sinisajeev and Anonymous: 782

• Global warming Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_warming?oldid=671092048 Contributors: Damian Yerrick, AxelBoldt, Joao, SteveSmith, Peter Winnberg, MichaelTinkler, The Epopt, The Cunctator, Dreamyshade, LC~enwiki, Sodium, Eloquence, Vicki Rosenzweig, Mav, Zundark, The Anome, Tarquin, Taw, Slrubenstein, Malcolm Farmer, Ed Poor, Andre Engels, Youssefsan, Toby Bar- tels, Fubar Obfusco, SJK, Rootbeer, Miguel~enwiki, William Avery, SimonP, DavidLevinson, Anthere, Hannes Hirzel, Graft, Heron, Soulpatch, Rickyrab, Twilsonb, Stevertigo, Nealmcb, Boud, Michael Hardy, Earth, Fred Bauder, MartinHarper, Gabbe, Tannin, Ixfd64, Sheldon Rampton, Dcljr, Cyde, 172, Shoaler, Delirium, Eric119, SebastianHelm, Minesweeper, Alfio, Kosebamse, Looxix~enwiki, Aho- erstemeier, DavidWBrooks, Mac, Stevenj, Ryan Cable, William M. Connolley, G-Man, Snoyes, Angela, Ojs, Bueller 007, Kragen, Lit- tleDan, Kevin Baas, Julesd, Glenn, Marco Krohn, Michael Shields, Poor Yorick, Rossami, Nikai, Evercat, CarlKenner, Palmpilot900, Mxn, Hike395, Guaka, David Newton, Dcoetzee, Stone, Fuzheado, Rednblu, The Anomebot, WhisperToMe, Wik, Abscissa, Prumpf, DJ Clayworth, Haukurth, CBDunkerson, Patrick0Moran, Tpbradbury, Dragons flight, Saltine, Martinphi, Jnc, Taxman, Tempshill, Val42, SEWilco, Zero0000, Rei, Omegatron, Samsara, Bevo, Xevi~enwiki, Fvw, AaronSw, Raul654, Dpbsmith, Wetman, Secretlondon, Flock- meal, MH~enwiki, Lumos3, Denelson83, Jni, Twang, Jason Potter, Phil Boswell, Aenar, Sjorford, Donarreiskoffer, Robbot, Rossnixon, Pfortuny, DavidA, Hankwang, Chealer, TomPhil, Fredrik, Tlogmer, Schutz, RedWolf, Goethean, ZimZalaBim, Peak, Dittaeva, Stephan Schulz, Naddy, Henrygb, Academic Challenger, Rursus, Hemanshu, TMLutas, Meelar, Sunray, Hadal, JesseW, Robinh, Stay cool~enwiki, Mr w~enwiki, Michael Snow, Alba, Mushroom, Anthony, Drstuey, Phanly, Mattflaschen, MikeCapone, Pengo, GreatWhiteNortherner, Terjepetersen, Alan Liefting, Dave6, Stirling Newberry, Centrx, Giftlite, JamesMLane, Christopher Parham, Jacoplane, MPF, Dtay- lor1984, Barbara Shack, Kim Bruning, Philwelch, Inter, Wolfkeeper, Tom harrison, Art Carlson, Cool Hand Luke, TDC, Marcika, Obli, Peruvianllama, Everyking, Oleg326756, Jonabbey, Curps, JeffBobFrank, Thierryc, Mellum, Leonard G., Duncharris, Guanaco, Sundar, Mboverload, Eequor, Bosniak, Bobblewik, Deus Ex, Tagishsimon, Kmsiever, Edcolins, JRR Trollkien, Neilc, Stevietheman, Mr magoo, StuartH, Tpduden, Pgan002, SarekOfVulcan, Rworsnop, Sonjaaa, Antandrus, Dan aka jack, BozMo, Beland, GD~enwiki, OverlordQ, MisfitToys, Baba, Kaldari, PDH, Jossi, CaribDigita, Rdsmith4, Kesac, Anythingyouwant, DragonflySixtyseven, Gene s, Bosmon, PFHLai, Mozzerati, Sam Hocevar, Thparkth, Daofeishi, Lumidek, ArcticFrog, Neutrality, Joyous!, Buickid, Avihu, Jh51681, CohenTheBavarian, Deglr6328, Fanghong~enwiki, Random account 47, Adashiel, Trevor MacInnis, Grunt, Eisnel, Jakro64, Arminius, Ellsass, Atlastawake, [email protected], Mike Rosoft, Alkivar, D6, Freakofnurture, Monkeyman, Spiffy sperry, CALR, DanielCD, Diagonalfish, Blanchette, Discospinster, Rich Farmbrough, KillerChihuahua, Guanabot, Pak21, Hidaspal, Pjacobi, Rameses, Wrp103, Vsmith, Rupertslander, Zen- master, Vapour, Dave souza, Bishonen, Ceo, Serpens, Xezbeth, Mjpieters, Dieguez, Number 0, GregBenson, Paul August, Robertbow- erman, TheOuthouseMouse, Stbalbach, Bender235, ESkog, Android79, Kbh3rd, A purple wikiuser, Kaisershatner, Axi0m, Reynst, Pe- tersam, Wolfman, Brian0918, Maclean25, Mr. Billion, Pt, Thejackhmr, Punchy444, MBisanz, El C, Szyslak, Mwanner, Worldtraveller, Aude, Shanes, Tom, Susvolans, Remember, Sietse Snel, Art LaPella, RoyBoy, DavidRader, Guettarda, Causa sui, Noren, Bobo192, Nigelj, Kghose, Iamunknown, JonGwynne, Denorris, NetBot, ERW1980, Nectarflowed, Func, Evolauxia, Adraeus, BrokenSegue, Viriditas, MI- Talum, Wisdom89, Adrian~enwiki, Richi, Gjl, I9Q79oL78KiL0QTFHgyc, Timl, La goutte de pluie, MARQUIS111, Pschemp, Van- ished user 19794758563875, Osbojos, Sam Korn, Haham hanuka, Silverback, Crust, Hagerman, Mpulier, Jonathunder, Mpeisenbr, Nsaa, Stephen Bain, Mdd, Googie man, Ecoresearch, Orangemarlin, Eleo, Jumbuck, Bongle, Red Winged Duck, Stephen G. Brown, Macai, Mrzaius, Jhertel, Anthony Appleyard, Mo0, Polarscribe, DenisHowe, Borisblue, Atlant, Rgclegg, Rd232, Mr Adequate, Keenan Pepper, Jeltz, Hipocrite, Andrewpmk, Ricky81682, John Quiggin, Arved Deecke, ABCD, Riana, AzaToth, SHIMONSHA, Lectonar, SlimVir- gin, Lightdarkness, Ramsquire, Fourthgeek, Spangineer, Hu, Malo, Titanium Dragon, Yummifruitbat, Bart133, Cortonin, Samohyl Jan, Ashlux, BanyanTree, Rebroad, Almafeta, Yuckfoo, Vcelloho, Evil Monkey, Omphaloscope, Harej, Tony Sidaway, Gpvos, Count Iblis, Rain- bowOfLight, CloudNine, Drat, Sciurinæ, Jhalpern, Nallan, H2g2bob, Deathphoenix, Bsadowski1, Lebite, Computerjoe, Jason L. Gohlke, BDD, Itsmine, Versageek, SteinbDJ, Alai, Redvers, Tainter, HenryLi, Kazvorpal, Dan100, Ultramarine, Falcorian, Tariqabjotu, Alex.g, Stoft, Dejvid, Feezo, DarTar, Angr, Simetrical, Jeffrey O. Gustafson, David Foster, Mel Etitis, Henrik, Bilboyce, TigerShark, Derktar, Temuler, Masterjamie, Webdinger, Merlinme, Asteron, StradivariusTV, Benhocking, Carcharoth, Jeremy Young, Mazca, Scjessey, Pol098, Ruud Koot, JeremyA, Trödel, MONGO, Tedneeman, Rtdrury, Mooinglemur, Kgrr, Kelisi, Bdj, Kmg90, Bbatsell, TreveX, Munnin, Ter- ence, John Hill, Leobinus, Rotten, SDC, Hard Raspy Sci, Wayward, Joke137, Xiong Chiamiov, Prashanthns, Gimboid13, Karbinski, Abd, Palica, Betsythedevine, Driftwoodzebulin, Timtom27, Msiddalingaiah, Jebur~enwiki, Rnt20, Ashmoo, Graham87, Marskell, Somebenguy, Magister Mathematicae, Galwhaa, Chun-hian, David Levy, Kbdank71, FreplySpang, WikiWarming, Pik0, RxS, Bikeable, Grammar- bot, Josh Parris, TheronJ, Canderson7, Techn0tic, Drbogdan, Sjakkalle, Rjwilmsi, Coemgenus, Koavf, Snowhare, George Burgess, Mho- nan, 1wheel, Vary, MarSch, Josiah Rowe, Tangotango, Stardust8212, MZMcBride, Tawker, Mitrebox, DonSiano, Ligulem, CQJ, Daniel Collins, Bubba73, StephanieM, Brighterorange, The wub, Bhadani, TheIncredibleEdibleOompaLoompa, Remurmur, GregAsche, AySz88, Sango123, Lotu, Raprat0, Gozar, DirkvdM, Yamamoto Ichiro, Strikesvl, Aveekbh, Leithp, Algebra, Scorpionman, FayssalF, Dinosaurdar- rell, Titoxd, Mikecron, Wragge, FlaBot, Ian Pitchford, RobertG, Ground Zero, Soccerxc555, Salva31, Jak123, Dullfig, Chinfo, Backin72, Crazycomputers, Alhutch, Who, Rbonvall, Nberardi, RexNL, Gurch, Sbohra, TheDJ, Jrtayloriv, Brendan Moody, Algri, TeaDrinker, Alphachimp, Argyrios Saccopoulos, Dothefandango, Kri, Gurubrahma, TheSun, Physchim62, Ayush Gupta, Smithbrenon, Pinotgris, In- terpreter, Chobot, SirGrant, Theo Pardilla, Hirsch.im.wald, Jaraalbe, Bornhj, JesseGarrett, Bdelisle, Chwyatt, Cactus.man, Digitalme, Simesa, Peterl, Gwernol, Wjfox2005, Flcelloguy, Giannandrea, YurikBot, Wavelength, Borgx, Pile0nades, Crotalus horridus, Eraserhead1, 86 CHAPTER 5. SEA LEVEL RISE

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S., CensoredScribe, Oxr033, Thevideodrome, Prokaryotes, JohnGoodName, Colinlockwood88, Tento2, CQ 126, Irte, Anrnusna, Pangurban22, Femkemilene, Jonas Vinther, Monkbot, LollyBear12, Indiamonsoon, Trackteur, HACNY, Darreus, Piledhighandeep, DoctorTerrella, Mjmroy, Neudabei, I'm your Grandma., Isambard Kingdom, Hunenmensch, Afterimage33, Kennethtansg and Anonymous: 1806

• Greenhouse gas Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greenhouse_gas?oldid=672519074 Contributors: AxelBoldt, Mav, Bryan Derksen, DanKeshet, Ed Poor, Xaonon, Dachshund, Toby Bartels, SimonP, Chd~enwiki, Anthere, Ellmist, Heron, B4hand, Youandme, Edward, D, Michael Hardy, Booyabazooka, Fred Bauder, Kku, SebastianHelm, Looxix~enwiki, Mkweise, Ahoerstemeier, Cyp, Mac, William M. Con- nolley, JWSchmidt, Marco Krohn, Ciphergoth, Andres, Ralf Schmelter, Victor Engel, Scmarney, Stone, Fuzheado, Tb, Peregrine981, Tpbradbury, Dragons ﬂight, Saltine, SEWilco, Bowser~enwiki, Raul654, Mjmcb1, MrJones, Chealer, ChrisO~enwiki, Stephan Schulz, Nurg, Securiger, Aetheling, Phanly, HaeB, Dina, Tobias Bergemann, Alan Liefting, Matt Gies, Giftlite, Christopher Parham, Tom harrison, HangingCurve, Marcika, Everyking, NeoJustin, Duncharris, Guanaco, Darrien, Bosniak, JRR Trollkien, Chowbok, Utcursch, Alexf, Geni, Mike R, Pcarbonn, Antandrus, BozMo, Beland, OverlordQ, Xinit, WhiteDragon, Rdsmith4, Deglr6328, Fanghong~enwiki, Ran- dom account 47, DanielCD, Roberdin, Discospinster, Rich Farmbrough, Vsmith, Paul August, Bender235, ESkog, Rodtrent, DS1953, Aude, Guettarda, Bobo192, Nigelj, JonGwynne, Sentience, Smalljim, Evolauxia, Duk, Iakobski, ParticleMan, Slambo, Hesperian, Sil- verback, Hooperbloob, Orangemarlin, Drf5n, Alansohn, Gary, Duﬀman~enwiki, Rd232, Derumi, Mac Davis, Wdfarmer, Hu, Snowolf, Cortonin, Garrisonroo, Dionisiofranca, Suruena, Tony Sidaway, Count Iblis, Jhalpern, Gene Nygaard, Netkinetic, Stephen, Boothy443, OwenX, Woohookitty, Camw, LOL, Benhocking, MGTom, Duncan.france, MONGO, Rtdrury, Kelisi, Cbustapeck, GregorB, Prashan- thns, MarcoTolo, Paxsimius, Mandarax, Tslocum, NCdave, A Train, FreplySpang, Tlroche, Ketiltrout, Sjö, Douzzer, Rjwilmsi, Koavf, 5.14. TEXT AND IMAGE SOURCES, CONTRIBUTORS, AND LICENSES 89

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SEA LEVEL RISE

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5.14.2 Images

• File:2000_Year_Temperature_Comparison.png Source: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/c/c1/2000_Year_ Temperature_Comparison.png License: CC-BY-SA-3.0 Contributors: ? Original artist: ? • File:6m_Sea_Level_Rise.jpg Source: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/5/5c/6m_Sea_Level_Rise.jpg License: Pub- lic domain Contributors: https://www.flickr.com/photos/11304375@N07/6863515730/ additional source http://www.livescience.com/ 19212-sea-level-rise-ancient-future.html en:Live Science Original artist: NASA • File:A_vast_array_of_physical_and_biological_systems_across_the_Earth_are_being_affected_by_human-induced_global_ warming_(low-res).png Source: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/c/cf/A_vast_array_of_physical_and_biological_ systems_across_the_Earth_are_being_affected_by_human-induced_global_warming_%28low-res%29.png License: Public domain 5.14. TEXT AND IMAGE SOURCES, CONTRIBUTORS, AND LICENSES 91

Contributors: Science Briefs: Warming Climate is Changing Life on Global Scale, website of the US National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Goddard Institute for Space Studies. Retrieved 2011-07-08. The diagram itself was copied from a high resolution PDF ﬁle linked-to on this website. The text for the image description also refers to the website of the Climatic Research Unit, based at the University of East Anglia in the UK: Temperature data (HadCRUT3 and CRUTEM3), written by Phil Jones and Mike Salmon, last updated 2011-01-01. Retrieved 2011-07-08. Original artist: Cynthia Rosenzweig • File:Aegopodium_podagraria1_ies.jpg Source: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/b/bf/Aegopodium_podagraria1_ies. jpg License: CC-BY-SA-3.0 Contributors: Own work Original artist: Frank Vincentz • File:Aerial_view_of_the_edge_of_the_ice_in_Nunavut_2.jpg Source: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/e/ed/ Aerial_view_of_the_edge_of_the_ice_in_Nunavut_2.jpg License: CC BY-SA 2.0 Contributors: 2007_11_04_lhr-den_197.JPG Original artist: Doc Searls from Santa Barbara, USA • File:Annual_greenhouse_gas_emissions_by_sector,_in_2010_(color)_png.png Source: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/ commons/5/5c/Annual_greenhouse_gas_emissions_by_sector%2C_in_2010_%28color%29_png.png License: CC0 Contributors: Own work Original artist: Enescot • File:Annual_per_capita_carbon_dioxide_emissions_from_fuel_combustion_in_2009_for_140_countries.png Source: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/c/c0/Annual_per_capita_carbon_dioxide_emissions_from_fuel_combustion_in_ 2009_for_140_countries.png License: CC BY-SA 3.0 Contributors: Own work Original artist: Enescot • File:Antarctic_bottom_water.svg Source: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/e/e7/Antarctic_bottom_water.svg License: CC BY-SA 4.0 Contributors: Original artist: Fred the Oyster • File:Antarctic_shelf_ice_hg.png Source: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/b/b2/Antarctic_shelf_ice_hg.png License: CC BY-SA 2.5 Contributors: Own work Original artist: Hannes Grobe, Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research, Bre- merhaven, Germany • File:Atmospheric_Transmission.png Source: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/7/7c/Atmospheric_Transmission.png License: CC-BY-SA-3.0 Contributors: ? Original artist: ? • File:Attribution_of_individual_atmospheric_component_contributions_to_the_terrestrial_greenhouse_effect,_separated_ into_feedback_and_forcing_categories_(NASA).png Source: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/0/06/Attribution_ of_individual_atmospheric_component_contributions_to_the_terrestrial_greenhouse_effect%2C_separated_into_feedback_and_ forcing_categories_%28NASA%29.png License: Public domain Contributors: NASA GISS: CO2: The Thermostat that Controls Earth’s Temperature, New York: NASA GISS, http://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/briefs/lacis_01/ Original artist: Andrew Lacis • File:BAMS_climate_assess_boulder_water_vapor_2002.png Source: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/d/d7/ BAMS_climate_assess_boulder_water_vapor_2002.png License: Public domain Contributors: ? Original artist: ? • File:CO2_increase_rate.png Source: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/0/06/CO2_increase_rate.png License: CC-BY- SA-3.0 Contributors: I created this image with help (numerical data only) from Dr. Pieter Tans (3 May 2008) “Annual CO2 mole fraction increase (ppm)" for 1959-2007,” National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Earth System Research Laboratory, Global Monitoring Division (additional details; see also K.A. Masarie, P.P. Tans (1995) “Extension and integration of atmospheric carbon dioxide data into a globally consistent measurement record,” J. Geopys. Research, vol. 100, 11593-11610.) Original artist: New Image Uploader 929 (talk) • File:CO2_responsibility_1950-2000.svg Source: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/8/84/CO2_responsibility_ 1950-2000.svg License: CC-BY-SA-3.0 Contributors: self-made using data from the World Resources Institute and a blank map by Canuckguy and others Original artist: Vinny Burgoo • File:Carbon_History_and_Flux_Rev.png Source: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/5/52/Carbon_History_and_Flux_ Rev.png License: CC-BY-SA-3.0 Contributors: ? Original artist: ? • File:Carbon_intensity_of_GDP_(using_MER)_for_different_regions,_1982-2011_(corrected).png Source: https: //upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/47/Carbon_intensity_of_GDP_%28using_MER%29_for_different_regions%2C_ 1982-2011_%28corrected%29.png License: CC0 Contributors: Own work Original artist: Enescot • File:Carbon_intensity_of_GDP_(using_PPP)_for_different_regions,_1982-2011.png Source: https://upload.wikimedia.org/ wikipedia/commons/c/c0/Carbon_intensity_of_GDP_%28using_PPP%29_for_different_regions%2C_1982-2011.png License: CC0 Contributors: Own work Original artist: Enescot • File:Changes_in_aragonite_saturation_of_the_world’{}s_oceans,_1880-2012_(US_EPA).png Source: https://upload.wikimedia. org/wikipedia/commons/4/4a/Changes_in_aragonite_saturation_of_the_world%27s_oceans%2C_1880-2012_%28US_EPA%29.png License: Public domain Contributors: Climate Change Indicators in the United States, 2012, 2nd ed: Ocean Acidity: Fig- ure 2. Changes in Aragonite Saturation of the World’s Oceans, 1880-2012, US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/science/indicators/oceans/acidity.html#fragment-2 Original artist: US EPA • File:Changes_in_climate_indicators_that_show_global_warming.png Source: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/ 40/Changes_in_climate_indicators_that_show_global_warming.png License: Public domain Contributors: “State of the Climate in 2009: Supplemental and Summary Materials: Report at a Glance: Highlights,” page 3. Website of the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Ad- ministration: National Climatic Data Center: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/bams-state-of-the-climate/2009.php Original artist: US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration: National Climatic Data Center. • File:Changes_in_total_solar_irradiance_and_monthly_sunspot_numbers,_1975-2013.png Source: https://upload.wikimedia.org/ wikipedia/commons/b/b4/Changes_in_total_solar_irradiance_and_monthly_sunspot_numbers%2C_1975-2013.png License: CC0 Con- tributors: 92 CHAPTER 5. SEA LEVEL RISE

• Open access: Figure 7, in: Hansen, J., et al. (2013), “Assessing “Dangerous Climate Change”: Required Reduction of Carbon Emissions to Protect Young People, Future Generations and Nature”, PLoS ONE 8 (12), http://www.plosone.org/article/info%3Adoi%2F10.1371% 2Fjournal.pone.0081648. Archived 14 August 2014. A high-resolution version of this image is available here (archived 16 July 2014). Original artist: Hansen J, Kharecha P, Sato M, Masson-Delmotte V, Ackerman F, et al. • File:Commons-logo.svg Source: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/4/4a/Commons-logo.svg License: ? Contributors: ? Original artist: ? • File:Corp2400_-_Flickr_-_NOAA_Photo_Library.jpg Source: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/8/8b/Corp2400_-_ Flickr_-_NOAA_Photo_Library.jpg License: Public domain Contributors: NOAA Photo Library: corp2400 Original artist: Michael Van Woert, NOAA NESDIS, ORA. • File:Crystal_energy.svg Source: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/1/14/Crystal_energy.svg License: LGPL Contribu- tors: Own work conversion of Image:Crystal_128_energy.png Original artist: Dhatfield • File:Cumulative_energy-related_carbon_dioxide_emissions_between_1850-2005_for_different_countries.png Source: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/f/fe/Cumulative_energy-related_carbon_dioxide_emissions_between_1850-2005_ for_different_countries.png License: CC BY-SA 3.0 Contributors: Own work Original artist: Enescot • File:Cumulative_energy-related_carbon_dioxide_emissions_between_1850-2005_for_low-income,_middle-income, _high-income,_the_EU-15,_and_OECD_countries.png Source: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/7/70/Cumulative_ energy-related_carbon_dioxide_emissions_between_1850-2005_for_low-income%2C_middle-income%2C_high-income%2C_the_ EU-15%2C_and_OECD_countries.png License: CC BY-SA 3.0 Contributors: Own work Original artist: Enescot • File:Cumulative_energy-related_per_capita_carbon_dioxide_emissions_between_1850-2008_for_185_countries.png Source: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/7/7c/Cumulative_energy-related_per_capita_carbon_dioxide_emissions_between_ 1850-2008_for_185_countries.png License: CC BY-SA 3.0 Contributors: Own work Original artist: Enescot • File:Diagram_showing_a_simplified_representation_of_the_Earth’{}s_annual_carbon_cycle_(US_DOE).png Source: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/d/d2/Diagram_showing_a_simplified_representation_of_the_Earth%27s_annual_ carbon_cycle_%28US_DOE%29.png License: Public domain Contributors: Global Carbon Cycle Components. US DOE. Prepared by the Biological and Enviornmental Research Information System, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, genomicscience.energy.gov/ and genomics.energy.gov/. Used in: Carbon Cycling and Biosequestration: Integrating Biology and Climate Through Systems Science; Report from the March 2008 Workshop, DOE/SC-108, U.S. Department of Energy Office of Science (genomicscience.energy.gov/carboncycle/) Original artist: US DOE • File:Diagram_showing_ten_indicators_of_global_warming.png Source: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/1/17/ Diagram_showing_ten_indicators_of_global_warming.png License: Public domain Contributors: State of the Climate in 2009: Supplemental and Summary Ma- terials: Report at a Glance: Highlights, US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration: National Climatic Data Center, http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/bams-state-of-the-climate/2009.php, page 2. Original artist: US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Adminis- tration: National Climatic Data Center • File:Earth_Day_Flag.png Source: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/6/6a/Earth_Day_Flag.png License: Public domain Contributors: File:Earth flag PD.jpg, File:The Earth seen from Apollo 17 with transparent background.png Original artist: NASA (Earth photograph) SiBr4 (flag image) • File:Energy_change_inventory,_1971-2010.svg Source: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/2/2b/Energy_change_ inventory%2C_1971-2010.svg License: CC0 Contributors: Own work Original artist: Enescot • File:Enso-global-temp-anomalies.png Source: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/f/f9/Enso-global-temp-anomalies. png License: Public domain Contributors: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/2012/13 Original artist: NOAA • File:Evidence_CO2.jpg Source: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/3/3c/Evidence_CO2.jpg License: Public domain Contributors: http://climate.nasa.gov/evidence/ Original artist: Global Climate Change -- Earth Science Communications Team at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory/California Institute of Technology (data from NOAA) • File:Folder_Hexagonal_Icon.svg Source: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/4/48/Folder_Hexagonal_Icon.svg License: Cc-by- sa-3.0 Contributors: ? Original artist: ? • File:GHG_intensity_2000.svg Source: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/7/70/GHG_intensity_2000.svg License: CC- BY-SA-3.0 Contributors: Self-made using data from the World Resources Institute and a blank map by Canuckguy and others Original artist: Vinny Burgoo • File:GHG_per_capita_2000.svg Source: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/e/ea/GHG_per_capita_2000.svg License: CC-BY-SA-3.0 Contributors: self-made using data from the World Resources Institute and a blank map by Canuckguy and others Original artist: Vinny Burgoo • File:Glacier_Mass_Balance.png Source: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/e/e5/Glacier_Mass_Balance.png License: CC-BY-SA-3.0 Contributors: ? Original artist: ? • File:Glacier_Mass_Balance_Map.png Source: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/9/93/Glacier_Mass_Balance_Map. png License: CC-BY-SA-3.0 Contributors: ? Original artist: ? • File:Global_Carbon_Emissions.svg Source: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/44/Global_ Carbon_Emissions.svg License: CC BY-SA 3.0 Contributors: http://cdiac.ornl.gov/ftp/ndp030/CSV-FILES/ and Global_Carbon_Emission_by_Type_to_Y2004.png Original artist: Global_Carbon_Emission_by_Type_to_Y2004.png: Mak Thorpe • File:Global_Temperature_Anomaly.svg Source: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/f/f8/Global_Temperature_ Anomaly.svg License: Public domain Contributors: http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/ Original artist: NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies • File:Global_Warming_Map.jpg Source: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/8/8c/Global_Warming_Map.jpg License: CC-BY-SA-3.0 Contributors: ? Original artist: ? 5.14. TEXT AND IMAGE SOURCES, CONTRIBUTORS, AND LICENSES 93

• File:Global_Warming_Observed_CO2_Emissions_from_fossil_fuel_burning_vs_IPCC_scenarios.svg Source: https: //upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/2/2d/Global_Warming_Observed_CO2_Emissions_from_fossil_fuel_burning_vs_ IPCC_scenarios.svg License: CC BY-SA 3.0 Contributors: Based on File:Global Warming Observed CO2 Emissions from fossil fuel burning vs IPCC scenarios.jpg, originally from http://www.skepticalscience.com/graphics.php Original artist: Dana Nuccitelli, vectorized by User:Dcoetzee • File:Global_Warming_Predictions.png Source: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/a/aa/Global_Warming_Predictions. png License: CC-BY-SA-3.0 Contributors: ? Original artist: ? • File:Global_greenhouse_gas_emissions_by_sector,_1990-2005,_in_carbon_dioxide_equivalents_(EPA,_2010).png Source: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/e/ed/Global_greenhouse_gas_emissions_by_sector%2C_1990-2005%2C_in_carbon_ dioxide_equivalents_%28EPA%2C_2010%29.png License: Public domain Contributors: Climate Change Indicators in the United States: Figure 2. Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions by Sector, 1990-2005. Page 12 of PDF. Published 2010. Original artist: US Environmental Protection Agency • File:Global_temperature_relative_to_peak_Holocene_temperature,_based_on_ocean_cores_(NASA).png Source: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/7/7e/Global_temperature_relative_to_peak_Holocene_temperature%2C_based_ on_ocean_cores_%28NASA%29.png License: Public domain Contributors: fig1.pdf, in: NASA GISS: Science Briefs: Earth’s Climate History: Implications for Tomorrow, New York City, New York, USA: NASA GISS, http://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/briefs/hansen_15/ Original artist: James E. Hansen and Makiko Sato • File:Greenhouse_Effect.svg Source: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/5/58/Greenhouse_Effect.svg License: GFDL 1.2 Contributors: • This figure was created by Robert A. Rohde from published data and is part of the Global Warming Art project. Original artist: Robert A. 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Rohde • File:Greenhouse_gas_emissions_from_agriculture,_forestry_and_other_land_use,_1970-2010.png Source: https: //upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/9/96/Greenhouse_gas_emissions_from_agriculture%2C_forestry_and_other_land_ use%2C_1970-2010.png License: CC0 Contributors: Own work Original artist: Enescot • File:Greenland_ssi_2007.jpg Source: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/a/af/Greenland_ssi_2007.jpg License: Public domain Contributors: http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=8264 Original artist: NASA • File:Heat_content700m2000myr.png Source: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/6/6f/Heat_content700m2000myr.png Li- cense: PD Contributors: http://www.nodc.noaa.gov/OC5/3M_HEAT_CONTENT/heat_content700m2000myr.png Original artist: NOAA • File:Impacts_of_global_warming_2.png Source: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/1/14/Impacts_of_global_ warming_2.png License: CC0 Contributors: Own work Original artist: Enescot • File:Key_to_world_map_showing_surface_temperature_trends_between_1950_and_2014.png Source: https://upload.wikimedia. org/wikipedia/commons/b/b8/Key_to_world_map_showing_surface_temperature_trends_between_1950_and_2014.png License: Public domain Contributors: 16 January 2015: NASA, NOAA Find 2014 Warmest Year in Modern Record, in: Research News. NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY, USA. Accessed 20 February 2015. Original artist: NASA/GSFC/Earth Observa- tory, NASA/GISS (also see en:NOAA) • File:Limiting_global_warming_to_2_degrees_Celsius_-_options_to_reduce_greenhouse_gas_emissions_(PBL).png Source: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/d/d8/Limiting_global_warming_to_2_degrees_Celsius_-_options_ to_reduce_greenhouse_gas_emissions_%28PBL%29.png License: CC BY 3.0 Contributors: Figure 6.14, in: PBL Netherlands Environment Agency (15 June 2012), “Chapter 6: The energy and climate challenge”, in van Vuuren, D. and M. Kok, Roads from Rio+20, ISBN 978-90-78645-98-6, http://www.pbl.nl/sites/default/files/cms/publicaties/ pbl-2012-roads-from-rio-pathways-to-achieve-global-sustainability-goals-by-2050_0.pdf, p.177, Report no: 500062001. Report website. Original artist: PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency • File:Major_cities_threatened_by_sea_level_rise.png Source: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/8/8c/Major_cities_ threatened_by_sea_level_rise.png License: CC BY-SA 3.0 Contributors: Own work Original artist: KVDP • File:Major_greenhouse_gas_trends.png Source: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/b/bb/Major_greenhouse_gas_ trends.png License: Public domain Contributors: NOAA (http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/aggi/) Original artist: US Govt • File:Map_of_projected_global_warming_across_the_globe_by_the_2050s._Projections_based_on_three_SRES_greenhouse_ gas_emissions_scenarios._Data_from_CMIP3_(2007).jpg Source: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/f/f2/Map_ of_projected_global_warming_across_the_globe_by_the_2050s._Projections_based_on_three_SRES_greenhouse_gas_emissions_ scenarios._Data_from_CMIP3_%282007%29.jpg License: Public domain Contributors: ClimateWatch Magazine » Global Temperature Projections. NOAA Climate Portal. Original artist: Ned Gardiner, Hunter Allen, and Jay Hnilo • File:Mauna_Loa_CO2_monthly_mean_concentration.svg Source: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/c/c5/Mauna_ Loa_CO2_monthly_mean_concentration.svg License: CC BY-SA 4.0 Contributors: Own work. Data from Dr. Pieter Tans, NOAA/ESRL and Dr. Ralph Keeling, Scripps Institution of Oceanography. Original artist: Delorme • File:Mopitt_first_year_carbon_monoxide.jpg Source: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/b/b7/Mopitt_first_year_ carbon_monoxide.jpg License: Public domain Contributors: http://www.asc-csa.gc.ca/eng/satellites/mopitt.asp Original artist: NASA • File:NOAA_Annual_Greenhouse_Gas_Index_2012.png Source: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/5/51/NOAA_Annual_ Greenhouse_Gas_Index_2012.png License: PD Contributors: http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/aggi/aggi_2012.fig4.png Original artist: James Butler 94 CHAPTER 5. SEA LEVEL RISE

• File:NOAA_sea_level_trend_1993_2010.png Source: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/6/69/NOAA_sea_level_ trend_1993_2010.png License: CC BY-SA 3.0 Contributors: Own work Original artist: Giorgiogp2 • File:NOAAprecipitationtrend.jpg Source: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/8/83/NOAAprecipitationtrend.jpg Li- cense: Public domain Contributors: http://oaspub.epa.gov/eims/eims.ROEreport.displayImage?graphrecno=11779 Original artist: U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) • File:Natural_disasters_caused_by_climate_change.png Source: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/7/74/Natural_ disasters_caused_by_climate_change.png License: CC BY-SA 3.0 Contributors: Own work Original artist: KVDP • File:Nuvola_apps_kalzium.svg Source: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/8/8b/Nuvola_apps_kalzium.svg License: LGPL Contributors: Own work Original artist: David Vignoni, SVG version by Bobarino • File:Ocean_Heat_Content_(2012).png Source: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/5/5c/Ocean_Heat_Content_ %282012%29.png License: Public domain Contributors: http://www.nodc.noaa.gov/OC5/3M_HEAT_CONTENT/ Original artist: NOAA • File:Office-book.svg Source: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/a/a8/Office-book.svg License: Public domain Contribu- tors: This and myself. Original artist: Chris Down/Tango project • File:PD-icon.svg Source: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/6/62/PD-icon.svg License: PD Contributors: ? Original artist: ? • File:Percentage_share_of_global_cumulative_energy-related_carbon_dioxide_emissions_between_1751_and_2012_across_ different_regions.svg Source: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/0/0a/Percentage_share_of_global_cumulative_ energy-related_carbon_dioxide_emissions_between_1751_and_2012_across_different_regions.svg License: CC0 Contributors: Own work Original artist: Enescot • File:Phanerozoic_Sea_Level.png Source: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/44/Phanerozoic_Sea_Level.png License: CC-BY-SA-3.0 Contributors: ? Original artist: ? • File:Planetary_boundaries.svg Source: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/7/70/Planetary_boundaries.svg License: CC BY-SA 3.0 Contributors: Own work Original artist: Christian Leichsenring • File:Post-Glacial_Sea_Level.png Source: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/1/1d/Post-Glacial_Sea_Level.png License: CC-BY-SA-3.0 Contributors: ? Original artist: ? • File:Projected_change_in_annual_average_precipitation_for_the_21st_century,_based_on_the_SRES_A1B_emissions_ scenario,_and_simulated_by_the_GFDL_CM2.1_model.png Source: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/f/f6/ Projected_change_in_annual_average_precipitation_for_the_21st_century%2C_based_on_the_SRES_A1B_emissions_scenario%2C_ and_simulated_by_the_GFDL_CM2.1_model.png License: Public domain Contributors: Higher Resolution Version 1920 x 1080 png (840KB), in: Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory - Will the Wet Get Wetter and the Dry Drier, publisher: NOAA GFDL. Retrieved 2012-10-13. Original artist: NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) • File:Projected_change_in_annual_mean_surface_air_temperature_from_the_late_20th_century_to_the_middle_21st_century, _based_on_SRES_emissions_scenario_A1B.png Source: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/e/e6/Projected_ change_in_annual_mean_surface_air_temperature_from_the_late_20th_century_to_the_middle_21st_century%2C_based_on_SRES_ emissions_scenario_A1B.png License: Public domain Contributors: Edited from Very High Resolution Version 3200 x 1901 png (693KB), in: NOAA GFDL Climate Research Highlights Image Gallery: Patterns of Greenhouse Warming, publisher: NOAA GFDL. Retrieved 2012-10-13. Original artist: NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) • File:Projected_change_in_global_sea_level_rise_if_atmospheric_carbon_dioxide_concentrations_were_to_either_quadruple_ or_double_(NOAA_GFDL).png Source: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/a/a4/Projected_change_in_global_sea_ level_rise_if_atmospheric_carbon_dioxide_concentrations_were_to_either_quadruple_or_double_%28NOAA_GFDL%29.png License: Public domain Contributors: Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory - Climate Impact of Quadrupling CO2, Prince- ton, NJ, USA: NOAA GFDL, http://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/climate-impact-of-quadrupling-co2 Original artist: NOAA GFDL • File:Projected_changes_in_crop_yields_at_different_latitudes_with_global_warming.png Source: https://upload.wikimedia.org/ wikipedia/commons/e/ee/Projected_changes_in_crop_yields_at_different_latitudes_with_global_warming.png License: CC0 Contribu- tors: Own work Original artist: Enescot • File:Projected_changes_in_yields_of_selected_crops_with_global_warming.png Source: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/ commons/5/5f/Projected_changes_in_yields_of_selected_crops_with_global_warming.png License: CC0 Contributors: Own work Origi- nal artist: Enescot • File:Projected_global_warming_in_2100_for_a_range_of_emission_scenarios.png Source: https://upload.wikimedia.org/ wikipedia/commons/3/3b/Projected_global_warming_in_2100_for_a_range_of_emission_scenarios.png License: CC0 Contributors: Own work Original artist: Enescot • File:Projected_global_warming_over_the_21st_century_using_three_SRES_greenhouse_gas_emissions_scenarios._Data_ from_CMIP3_(2007).png Source: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/a/a7/Projected_global_warming_over_the_21st_ century_using_three_SRES_greenhouse_gas_emissions_scenarios._Data_from_CMIP3_%282007%29.png License: Public domain Contributors: ClimateWatch Magazine » Global Temperature Projections. NOAA Climate Portal. Original artist: Jay Hnilo • File:Projections_of_global_mean_sea_level_rise_by_Parris_et_al._(2012).png Source: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/ commons/5/54/Projections_of_global_mean_sea_level_rise_by_Parris_et_al._%282012%29.png License: Public domain Contributors: Figure 10, in: “4. Global Mean Sea Level Rise Scenarios,” in: “Main Report,” in: Global Sea Level Rise Scenarios for the US National Climate Assessment. NOAA Tech Memo OAR CPO-1, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Climate Program Office, 6 December 2012, http://cpo.noaa.gov/sites/cpo/Reports/2012/NOAA_SLR_r3.pdf, p.12. Original artist: Parris, A., P. Bromirski, V. Burkett, D. Cayan, M. Culver, J. Hall, R. Horton, K. Knuuti, R. Moss, J. Obeysekera, A. Sallenger, and J. Weiss • File:Radiative-forcings.svg Source: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/b/bb/Radiative-forcings.svg License: CC-BY- SA-3.0 Contributors: The figures used to generate this plot were obtained from the IPCC Working Group I Fourth Assessment Report Summary for Policymakers, page 16. [1] Original artist: This figure was produced by Leland McInnes (Radiative-forcings.svg) using gnu- plot and Inkscape and is licensed under the GFDL. All data is from publicly available sources. 5.14. TEXT AND IMAGE SOURCES, CONTRIBUTORS, AND LICENSES 95

• File:Regional_trends_in_annual_per_capita_carbon_dioxide_emissions_from_fuel_combustion_between_1971_and_2009.png Source: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/5/5d/Regional_trends_in_annual_per_capita_carbon_dioxide_emissions_ from_fuel_combustion_between_1971_and_2009.png License: CC BY-SA 3.0 Contributors: Own work Original artist: Enescot • File:SeaIce-Sept162012_HR.jpg Source: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/9/97/SeaIce-Sept162012_HR.jpg License: PD Contributors: http://www.climatewatch.noaa.gov/wp-content/uploads/2012/12/SeaIce-Sept162012_HR.jpg Original artist: Dan Pisut • File:ShipTracks_MODIS_2005may11.jpg Source: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/e/ee/ShipTracks_MODIS_ 2005may11.jpg License: Public domain Contributors: http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=5488 en:NASA Earth Observatory Original artist: Liam Gumley, Space Science and Engineering Center, University of Wisconsin-Madison • File:Stabilizing_the_atmospheric_concentration_of_carbon_dioxide_at_a_constant_level_would_require_emissions_to_be_ effectively_eliminated_(vertical).png Source: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/6/64/Stabilizing_the_atmospheric_ concentration_of_carbon_dioxide_at_a_constant_level_would_require_emissions_to_be_effectively_eliminated_%28vertical%29.png License: Public domain Contributors: The image is taken from the report, “Synthesis and Assessment Product 5.2: Best practice approaches for characterizing, communicating, and incorporating scientific uncertainty in decisionmaking,” page 11. 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