Global Warming Climate Change Contents 1 Adaptation to global warming 1 1.1 Effects of global warming ....................................... 1 1.2 Necessity for adaptation ........................................ 1 1.2.1 National Academy of Sciences ................................ 2 1.2.2 United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction ................. 2 1.2.3 IPCC Working Group II ................................... 2 1.2.4 Institution of Mechanical Engineers ............................. 3 1.3 Conceptualising adaptation ...................................... 3 1.4 Criteria for assessing responses .................................... 4 1.5 Costs .................................................. 4 1.6 Adaptation mechanisms ........................................ 5 1.7 Methods of adaptation ......................................... 5 1.7.1 Adaptation through local planning .............................. 5 1.7.2 Enhancing adaptive capacity ................................. 6 1.7.3 Agricultural production .................................... 6 1.7.4 Weather control ........................................ 7 1.7.5 Damming glacial lakes .................................... 7 1.7.6 Geoengineering ........................................ 7 1.7.7 Assisting disadvantaged nations ................................ 8 1.7.8 Migration ........................................... 8 1.7.9 Insurance ........................................... 8 1.8 Adaptation finance ........................................... 9 1.9 Adaptation measures by country .................................... 9 1.10 Opposition to adaption ........................................ 9 1.11 See also ................................................ 9 1.12 References ............................................... 10 1.13 Sources ................................................ 14 1.13.1 Relevant IPCC reports .................................... 14 1.13.2 Relevant United States sources ................................ 14 1.13.3 Other government sources .................................. 14 1.13.4 Other relevant sources ..................................... 14 2 Effects of global warming 16 i ii CONTENTS 2.1 Definitions ............................................... 16 2.2 Temperature changes ......................................... 17 2.2.1 SRES emissions scenarios ................................... 17 2.2.2 Projected warming in context ................................. 17 2.3 Physical impacts ............................................ 18 2.3.1 Effects on weather ...................................... 18 2.3.2 Cryosphere .......................................... 19 2.3.3 Oceans ............................................ 20 2.4 Regions ................................................ 21 2.4.1 Observed impacts ....................................... 22 2.4.2 Projected impacts ....................................... 22 2.5 Social systems ............................................. 22 2.5.1 Food supply .......................................... 22 2.5.2 Health ............................................. 23 2.5.3 Water resources ........................................ 24 2.5.4 Migration and conflict ..................................... 24 2.5.5 Aggregate impacts ...................................... 25 2.6 Biological systems ........................................... 25 2.6.1 Observed impacts on biological systems ........................... 25 2.6.2 Projected impacts on biological systems ........................... 25 2.7 Abrupt or irreversible changes ..................................... 26 2.7.1 Biogeochemical cycles .................................... 26 2.7.2 Greenland and West Antarctic Ice sheets ........................... 27 2.7.3 The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation ....................... 27 2.7.4 Irreversibilities ........................................ 27 2.8 Scientific opinion ........................................... 28 2.8.1 NASA data and tools ..................................... 28 2.9 See also ................................................ 28 2.10 Footnotes ............................................... 28 2.11 Notes ................................................. 29 2.12 References ............................................... 35 2.13 Further reading ............................................ 37 2.14 External links ............................................. 37 3 Global warming 38 3.1 Observed temperature changes .................................... 39 3.1.1 Trends ............................................ 40 3.1.2 Warmest years ........................................ 40 3.2 Initial causes of temperature changes (external forcings) ....................... 40 3.2.1 Greenhouse gases ...................................... 40 3.2.2 Particulates and soot ..................................... 41 3.2.3 Solar activity ......................................... 42 CONTENTS iii 3.3 Feedback ............................................... 43 3.4 Climate models ............................................ 43 3.5 Observed and expected environmental effects ............................ 44 3.5.1 Extreme weather ....................................... 45 3.5.2 Sea level rise ......................................... 45 3.5.3 Ecological systems ...................................... 45 3.5.4 Long-term effects ....................................... 45 3.5.5 Large-scale and abrupt impacts ............................... 46 3.6 Observed and expected effects on social systems ........................... 46 3.6.1 Habitat inundation ...................................... 46 3.7 Possible responses to global warming ................................. 47 3.7.1 Mitigation .......................................... 47 3.7.2 Adaptation .......................................... 47 3.7.3 Climate engineering ..................................... 47 3.8 Discourse about global warming ................................... 47 3.8.1 Political discussion ...................................... 47 3.8.2 Scientific discussion ..................................... 48 3.8.3 Discussion by the public and in popular media ........................ 49 3.9 Etymology .............................................. 49 3.10 See also ................................................ 50 3.11 Notes ................................................. 50 3.12 Citations ............................................... 50 3.13 References .............................................. 60 3.14 Further reading ............................................ 62 3.15 External links ............................................. 63 4 Greenhouse gas 65 4.1 Gases in Earth’s atmosphere ...................................... 65 4.1.1 Greenhouse gases ....................................... 65 4.1.2 Non-greenhouse gases .................................... 66 4.1.3 Indirect radiative effects ................................... 66 4.1.4 Contribution of clouds to Earth’s greenhouse effect ...................... 67 4.2 Impacts on the overall greenhouse effect ............................... 67 4.2.1 Proportion of direct effects at a given moment ........................ 67 4.2.2 Atmospheric lifetime ..................................... 67 4.2.3 Radiative forcing ....................................... 68 4.2.4 Global warming potential ................................... 68 4.3 Natural and anthropogenic sources .................................. 68 5 Sea level rise 70 5.1 Mechanism .............................................. 70 5.2 Past changes in sea level ....................................... 71 iv CONTENTS 5.3 Projections .............................................. 72 5.3.1 21st century ......................................... 72 5.3.2 After 2100 .......................................... 72 5.4 Models ................................................. 72 5.5 Contribution .............................................. 73 5.5.1 Antarctica ........................................... 73 5.5.2 Glaciers ............................................ 74 5.5.3 Greenland .......................................... 74 5.6 Effects of sea-level rise ........................................ 75 5.6.1 Island nations ......................................... 76 5.6.2 Cities ............................................. 76 5.6.3 Extreme sea level rise events ................................. 76 5.7 Sea level measurement ........................................ 76 5.7.1 Satellites ........................................... 76 5.7.2 Tide gauge .......................................... 77 5.8 Adaptation ............................................... 77 5.9 See also ................................................ 78 5.10 Notes ................................................. 78 5.11 References .............................................. 81 5.12 Further reading ............................................ 82 5.13 External links ............................................. 83 5.14 Text and image sources, contributors, and licenses .......................... 84 5.14.1 Text .............................................. 84 5.14.2 Images ............................................ 90 5.14.3 Content license ........................................ 96 Chapter 1 Adaptation to global warming Adaptation to global warming is a response to global 1.1 Effects of global warming warming that seeks to reduce the vulnerability of social and biological systems to current climate change and thus Main article: