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Climate Change Profile: Jordan April 2018

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Climate Change Profile: Jordan April 2018 Climate Change Profile Jordan Climate Change Profile | Jordan | Climate Change Profile | Jordan | Climate Change Profile | Jordan | Climate Change Profile | Jordan | Climateange Ch Profile | Jordan | Climate Change Profile | Jordan | Climate Change Profile | Jordan | Climate Change Profile | Jordan Table of contents Introduction 3 Summary 3 Overall ranking 3 Biophysical Vulnerability 3 Socio-economic Vulnerability 5 National government strategies and policies 7 Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) 9 Climate Finance 10 Climate Change Projects 10 Maps Map 1 Prevalence of (%) Koppen climatic zones 12 Map 2 Elevation 13 Map 3 Mean annual precipitation (mm) 14 Map 4 Average mean temperature (°C) 15 Map 5 Projected changes in seasonal mean temperature (°C) 16 Map 6 Trend of precipitation 1901-2010 17 Map 7 Projections of mean annual precipitation (mm) 18 Map 8 Projected average mean and maximum temperature (°C) 19 Map 9 Major river basins in Jordan 20 Map 10 Existing land use/cover of Jordan 21 | 2 | Introduction Overall ranking This climate change profile is designed to help integrate Jordan has an emission ranking of 80 out of 220 countries climate actions into development activities. It complements and regions2 contributing about 0.07% of global GHG the publication ‘Climate-smart = Future-Proof! – Guidelines emissions (2013 estimate)3 4. Jordan has a ranking of 81 out for Integrating climate-smart actions into development of 181 countries in the ND-GAIN index5 for climate policies and activities’ and provides answers to some of the vulnerability (ranking 1 being the least vulnerable). Jordan is questions that are raised in the step-by-step approach in the 50th least vulnerable country and the 84th least ready these guidelines. country. Vulnerability measures the exposure, sensitivity, and ability to cope with climate related hazards by accounting The current and expected effects of climate change differ for the overall status of food, water, environment, health, locally, nationally and regionally. The impacts of climate and infrastructure within a country. Readiness measures a change effects on livelihoods, food and water security, country’s ability to leverage investments and convert them ecosystems, infrastructure etc. differ per country and region to adaptation actions by looking at the country’s economic, as well as community and individual, with gender a governance and social readiness. Globally, relative to other particularly important vulnerability factor. This profile aims countries its current vulnerabilities are manageable but to give insight in the climate change effects and impacts in improvements in readiness will help it better adapt to Jordan, with particular attention for food security and water. future climate challenges. It also sheds light on the policies, priorities and commitments of the government in responding to climate change and important climate-relevant activities that are being Biophysical Vulnerability implemented, including activities being internationally financed. Jordan is situated in the eastern Mediterranean region with an altitude that ranges from less than -400m at the Dead Sea | 3 | surface (lowest point on earth) up to 1,750m. The typical Summary climate pattern for this region are winters of heavy rainfall from December-March which are followed by hot-dry A middle-income country located in the heart of the Middle summers from April-November. Jordan is divided into three East, Jordan is one of the driest countries in the world. climatic regions6 (see Maps 1 and 2): Water scarcity impacts on every aspect of Jordanian life and • the Jordan Valley (also referred to as the Ghor or is its greatest challenge to economic growth and lowlands) is part of the Great Rift Valley with a length of development. The demand for water and energy by the large about 400 kilometers extending from north to south with number of refugees is an important element in current and a width of approximately 15 kilometers in the north future water scarcity and energy concerns. Climate change expanding gradually to about 30 kilometers in the south. will act as a threat multiplier1 aggravating already existing It forms a narrow strip located 200-400 meters below sea water problems by decreasing water availability and putting level7. The Jordan Valley experiences warm winters further pressure on groundwater aquifers where recharge (19-22°C) and hot summers (38-39°C) with average annual rates have already been exceeded. The combined effects of rainfall ranging between 102-300 mm (see Maps 3 and 4). climate change and population growth (including • the Highlands which extends north-south to the east of migration) is anticipated to put more pressure on limited the Jordan Valley. Within the highlands zone there are land and water resources and to increase the challenge of two sub-regions: a mountainous region which extends sustainable development in Jordan. from the Yarmouk River in the north to Ras El-Naqab in the south; the marginal steep area which stretches from north to the southeast of the mountainous region, from 2 http://www.globalcarbonatlas.org/en/CO2-emissions 3 Climate Analysis Indicators Tool (CAIT) Version 2.0. (Washington, DC: World Resources Institute, 2016); 4 https://www.climatelinks.org/resources/greenhouse-gas-emis- sions-factsheet-jordan 5 GAIN index summarizes a country’s vulnerability to climate change and other global challenges in combination with readiness to improve 1 Ministry of Water and Irrigation (2016) Climate Change Policy for a resilience. http://gain.nd.edu/our-work/country-index/rankings/ Resilient Water Sector available at http://extwprlegs1.fao.org/docs/pdf/ 6 Jordan’s Third National Communication on Climate Change(TNC) jor165863.pdf see also World Bank (2014): Turn Down the Heat (2014). Available at http://unfccc.int/essential_background/library/ available at http://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/climatechange/ items/3599.php?rec=j&priref=7772#beg publication/turn-down-the-heat 7 TNC (2014); USAID (2017). the Syrian borders in the north to Ras Al-Naqab in the Trends since the 1960s include11: south highlands. Temperatures range from 9–13°C in the • Rise in annual maximum temperature of 0.3-1.8°C and winter to 26-29°C in the summer. rise in annual minimum temperature of 0.4–2.8°C across • the Badia and Desert region8, which covers an estimate all regions (minimum temperatures rose at a faster pace 80% of Jordan. This is an arid and semi-arid area extending than maximum temperatures). north-south from the foot of the Highlands eastward • Increase in the average number of heat waves across the with an elevation of about 600-750 m. The annual rainfall country, particularly in the desert. of the Badia ranges from 50 to 100 millimeters. The • Increase in the number of consecutive dry days south-east of the Badia region is the true desert with an nationwide (highest in the desert, followed by the annual rainfall of less than 35 millimeters. Temperatures highlands and then the Jordan Valley). range from 14-16°C in winter to 35-37°C in summer. • Decline in the annual precipitation by 5-20 percent across the country, except in Ras Muneef in the highlands and Being primarily arid to semi-arid, Jordan is characterized by very Ruwaished in the Badia, where rainfall has increased by low annual precipitation, averaging less than 220 millimeters. 5-10 percent. The rainy season extends from around October to May of the next year with 80% of the seasonal rainfall occurring Projections through the months of December to March, reaching a Prevalent in the analysis of climate change in Jordan and maximum average during the month of January. The annual Middle East is the use of the relative concentration pathways total precipitation varies sharply from one climatic region (RCP) that were utilized in the IPCC/UNFCCC reports12. to another, from a minimum of 28 mm at the southern In the medium term (2050)13, while there is some disparity Badia region to a maximum of 570 mm at the upper there is overall agreement that Jordan will become warmer northern highlands region of Ras Muneef. Along the Jordan with more frequent heat waves and fewer frost days. It is Valley region, the annual precipitation may reach 280 mm anticipated that in in the eastern and southern areas of the at Deir-Alla in the north and decreases towards the south to Badia and in the northern and southern areas of the | 4 | 71 mm at Ghor Safi9 (see Map 3). Highlands there is an increase in precipitation during the rainy season up to the year 2050, with a decrease for the rest Aridity and water scarcity make Jordan environmentally of the country which could reach up to 50% in the North of sensitive to climate change. More than 80% of the country is Aqaba14 (see Map 7). The country will also become drier with unpopulated due to desert conditions, where annual projected trends indicating that the annual precipitation precipitation fall under 50 millimeters (see Map 3). Water tends to decrease significantly with time15. Rainfall intensity availability is mainly dependent on rainfall which can vary is expected to increase. Runoff (precipitation minus greatly from year to year. Surface water in the Jordan River evapotranspiration, a measure of water availability) is and its tributaries, Yarmouk and Zarga are saline and projected to decrease. primarily used for irrigation, while underground aquifers are used as sources of drinking water (see Map 4). Flooding often follows heavy rainfall events during the winter destroying agricultural land and infrastructure and claiming lives. Indirect impact of droughts includes 11 USAID (2017). 12 The RCPs are consistent with a wide range of possible changes in increased migration to the urban areas. future anthropogenic (i.e., human) greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and aim to represent their atmospheric concentrations. RCP 2.6 Trends assumes that global annual GHG emissions (measured in CO2- equivalents) peak between 2010-2020, with emissions declining While there is some difference in the analysis of trends, substantially thereafter.
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