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REVISTA - Bogotá (Colombia) Vol. 11 N.° 2 - Julio-diciembre 137 rev.relac.int.estrateg.segur.11(2):137-159,2016

AN ANALYSIS OF THE CRISIS IN , AND ITS THREE CONFLICTS (21 OF NOVEMBER 2013, THROUGH 23 OF MAY 2014)*

Cristián Faundes**

ABSTRACT

This paper presents the results of a study of the crisis in Ukraine, guided by the following question: which is the intensity of the crisis in Ukraine between November 2013 and May 2014? The information collected for this research involves 293 events evaluated and translated into quantitative data by the author with the objective to elaborate a curve reflecting the intensity of the conflict. Considering that the situation under scrutiny involves several conflicts, Revista de one curve of intensity was not enough to follow the course of events, but three were needed to track the

(2). pp.137-159. DOI: pp.137-159. 11 (2). * This paper is the result of a research study on the Crisis in Ukraine held at the Center for Strategic Studies of the Chilean Army’s War College. Project number: CEEAG-01-2014. ** Investigador académico en temas de seguridad y defensa. Sus líneas de trabajo incluyen la teoría de conflictos y las relaciones entre

los países del Cono Sur. Se ha especializado en la problemática de los recursos naturales y el estudio del agua dulce como factor de conflictos. Ha presentado sus investigaciones en congresos internacionales y cátedras de postgrado. Se desempeña como Investigador asociado en la Jefatura de Estudios de la Academia de Guerra del Ejército. Periodista, licenciado en información social. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile. Magíster en Ciencias : 12 de enero 2016

: Faundes, C. (2016). An analysis of the crisis in Ukraine, and its C. (2016). : Faundes, Militar, mención Conflicto y Negociación Internacional, Academia de Guerra del Ejército de Chile. Magíster en Seguridad y Defensa, mención en Política de Defensa. Academia Nacional de Estudios Evaluado : 28 de febrero 2016 Aprobado : 02 de marzo 2016 Artículo de investigación Relaciones Internacionales, Estrategia y Seguridad . http://dx.doi.org/10.18359/ries.1874 Aceptado Referencia three conflicts (21 of November 2013, through 23 of May 2014). May of 23 through 2013, November of (21 conflicts three Políticos y Estratégicos. Correo electrónico: [email protected] 138 REVISTA DE RELACIONES INTERNACIONALES, ESTRATEGIA Y SEGURIDAD facts that are intertwined by policies in, around and about Kiev, which reveals the particular complexity of the case of study. During the second phase, the internal conflict drags the other two, but the efforts to reduce the intensity of these are not effective to moderate the internal one. The method applied reveals its value as a flexible tool that allows the evaluation of a complex situation in a simple way, but also exposes the fact that none of the divergences is settled.

Keywords: Civil War; International Security; Ukraine.

UN ANÁLISIS DE LA CRISIS EN UCRANIA Y SUS TRES CONFLICTOS (21 DE NOVIEMBRE DE 2013 A 23 DE MAYO DE 2014)

RESUMEN

Este artículo presenta los resultados de un estudio a partir de la siguiente pregunta de investigación: ¿cuál es la intensidad de la crisis en Ucrania entre noviembre 2013 y mayo 2014? Se identifican 293 sucesos que son evaluados y traducidos a datos cuantitativos, con el objeto de elaborar una curva que refleje la intensidad del conflicto. Considerando que este caso involucra varias disputas, se ha hecho insuficiente generar una única curva de intensidad para graficar lo acontecido; en cambio, se necesitaron tres para hacer el seguimiento de los hechos, que se encuentran entrelazados por políticas formuladas al interior de Ucrania, algunas en torno al país y finalmente otras respecto del mismo. Ello revela la particular complejidad del caso en estudio. Durante la segunda fase de la crisis, la divergencia interna arrastra las otras dos, pero los esfuerzos por reducir su intensidad no son efectivos para moderar el problema interno. El método aplicado en el estudio destaca como una herramienta flexible que permite realizar la evaluación de una situación compleja en una forma simple, asimismo da cuenta que ninguna de las controversias se ha solucionado.

Palabras clave: Guerra Civil; Seguridad Internacional; Ucrania.

UMA ANALISE DA CRISE DA UCRÂNIA E SEUS TRÊS CONFLITOS (21 DE NOVEMBRO DE 2013 A 23 DE MAIO DE 2014)

RESUMO

Este artigo apresenta os resultados de um estudo sobre a crise na Ucrânia, guiada pela pergunta seguinte: qual é a intensidade da crise da Ucrânia entre novembro

AN ANALYSIS OF THE CRISIS IN UKRAINE, AND ITS THREE CONFLICTS REVISTA - Bogotá (Colombia) Vol. 11 N.° 2 - Julio-diciembre 139 de 2013 e maio 2014? As informações obtidas por esta pesquisa envolvem 293 eventos, avaliados e traduzidos em dados quantitativos pelo autor, com o objetivo de elaborar um gráfico que reflete a intensidade do conflito. Considerando que a situação em apreço envolve vários conflitos, uma cifra de intensidade não foi o suficiente para seguir o curso dos acontecimentos, sendo necessárias mais três para acompanhar os fatos que estão interligados por políticas dentro, ao redor e sobre Kiev, o que revela a especial complexidade do caso em estudo. Durante a segunda fase da crise, o conflito interno arrasta os outros dois, mas os esforços para reduzir a sua intensidade não são eficazes para moderar o problema interno. O método usado no estudo constitui uma ferramenta flexível, que permite a avaliação de uma situação complexa de forma simples, também expõe o fato de que nenhuma das divergências é liquidada.

Palavras-chave: Guerra Civil; Segurança Internacional; Ucrânia.

Introduction Conflicts are inherent to human interactions; they derive from the Authors from Sociology and the pursuit of incompatible interests discipline of International Relations (Martínez de Murguía, 1999: 17-18). have been eager to establish a model If latent conflicts are not transformed to measure the intensity of conflicts. promptly, the actors involved may One of the key problems relates to trigger one or multiple crisis, provoking the quantification of facts to translate a perception of threat. The complexity a series of actions into a readable, to diagnose a crisis is obvious; in this consistent and logical curve on a graph context, the Curve of the Intensity to visualize the evolution of a conflict. of Conflict is a tool to simplify the Ministries and Departments of Foreign process. The crisis in Ukraine is a Affairs need these kind of tools as special example of the difficulty to valuable instruments to diagnose the do a proper follow-up of events, strategic landscape, whether they particularly because it is impossible represent countries directly involved to track the facts concerning this crisis in a conflict, a State that has legitimate from a unique perspective, from one interests in it, or need to monitor the standpoint to build one and only curve. situation in an area of awareness.

3 Some examples, the UCDP/PRIO Conflict Dataset; Heidelberg Institute for International Conflict Research’s Conflict Barometer; Conflict Information System (CONIS) database; the Shock of Conflict SHoC Model, among others.

Cristián Faundes 140 REVISTA DE RELACIONES INTERNACIONALES, ESTRATEGIA Y SEGURIDAD

This paper presents the results of a Washington, DC. The developments study of the crisis in Ukraine, with the that take part in the crisis of Ukraine aim to determine the intensity of the are the most critical in Europe after the crisis in Ukraine, between November end of the Cold War. Not because of 2013 and May 2014. The information the degree of violence, but somehow collected for this research involves it evidences the underlying conflict 293 events that were evaluated and between the West and Russia, up to a translated into quantitative data. One point in which the confidence building curve was not enough to follow the measures carefully designed to set up a course of events; there is the need to partnership for security between NATO draw three of them to track the facts that and Russia, suddenly faded away. The are intertwined by policies in, around crisis in Ukraine marks the moment in and about Kiev. The method applied which distrust stands between Moscow admits an orderly disaggregation and Washington provoking the most of data that, in this particular case, significant moment of tension since the enables a deeper understanding of a Cold War. Consequently, a renewed complex situation that involves several perception of threat activated worries conflicts. about the use of intercontinental missiles and even nuclear weapons. Even though the term Crisis is fairly defined and understood, there is some difficulty determining when a Conflict, crisis and the curve of crisis is actually happening. It is also intensity. particularly challenging to establish which is the starting point, and the end Martínez de Murguía (1999) states of it. In this context, it is debatable if that a conflict concerns a relationship after two years, Ukraine is still enduring between two or more organized a crisis or else. groups, within a nation or between States that have incompatible interests; From another perspective, it is pertinent which induces them to confront each to analyze the case considering its other while attempting to achieve their particular characteristics. It is worthy objective. However, Dougherty and of note the fact that this crisis begun Pfaltzgraff (1981) indicate that this as an internal political phenomena, kind of interaction implies more than a that after three months attracts mere competition; they consider that international actors. It escalates from in a dynamic of conflict, the adversaries the streets of Kiev to the offices of the seek to improve their own position Kremlin in Moscow, reaches NATO’s reducing the one of the opponents. Central Command in Brussels and even expands its influence to the A conflict is particularly sensitive when Oval Office at the White House in it manifests as a crisis, once a key player

AN ANALYSIS OF THE CRISIS IN UKRAINE, AND ITS THREE CONFLICTS REVISTA - Bogotá (Colombia) Vol. 11 N.° 2 - Julio-diciembre 141 challenges an adversary. In a situation progressively towards war or peace. of crisis there is a perception of a threat The result is a graphic representation to a nation, its territories, citizens, of what is happening on terrain, military forces, possessions, or vital so it helps to visualize the facts in interests, “that develops rapidly and perspective, particularly to understand creates a condition of such diplomatic, their dynamic. An acute diagnostic economic, or military importance that of the situation serves to successfully commitment of military forces and manage a conflict and even identify resources is contemplated to achieve key points to resolve it. More in detail, national objectives” (Joint Chiefs of taking note of how sensitive a crisis Staff, 2010: 55). Then, during a crisis, is, the results derived from a curve of the dialectic of the conflict accelerates, conflict might be even more valuable reducing the timeframe to respond. for decision makers. This means that decision makers need to gain the initiative, keep it, To collect an appropriate amount of and maintain the liberty of action, data to build a graph it is required meanwhile policy makers are under an extensive review of news stories, pressure to produce, in a very short reports, interviews and academic period of time, an array of options papers on the matter. To draw a proper for decision makers to asses. A proper curve it is necessary to examine every diagnose of the situation is critical, single day of the period under scrutiny, particularly because, while willing to identify key events that determine take control of the situation, a key the course of the relationship (or the player in the conflict would want to dynamic) and pointing out coherently avoid raising the temperature… other and consistently the value of every might be interested on promoting an occurrence. Only then, it is possible to escalation. The diagnosis includes not establish the ‘tone’ or the ‘level’ of the only facts per se, but also the possible relationship. impacts that decisions, actions and declarations might produce, and The curve of intensity is more valuable finally the perceptions of the public as an instrument when it is used opinion, of the adversary, and allies to measure events that are actually and partners. happening, for example while a crisis is under development. However, it can The curve of intensity of conflict is an also give substantial feedback while instrument to measure the evolution analyzing a conflict on perspective. of a conflict. According to Michael In the case of this research, it has Lund (2009), it is built upon the been particularly useful to identify the understanding that conflicts have a interdependence of three conflicts basic life history, they evolve in stages, that mingle in a crisis. Moreover, rises and falls in intensity over time, particularly, to observe that the study

Cristián Faundes 142 REVISTA DE RELACIONES INTERNACIONALES, ESTRATEGIA Y SEGURIDAD of a crisis needs to be disaggregated to around the impossibility to reach understand its complexity, especially accords. Divergent positions echoes to according to the conflicts involved. the civil society.

The curve integrates conceptual and Polarization: progressively the interpretative elements. To translate citizens get involved in the conflict. the data in operational terms, every The antagonism reaches the streets one of the 293 events identified with marches of support to one or in the study has been categorized the other side, there are signs of conceptually under the following discrimination and intolerance. The definitions: Difference, contradiction, press cites provoking and disqualifying polarization, violence, war, ceasefire, opinions. On its highest level, the agreement, normalization and intolerance might be reflected in reconciliation. Once the occurrence electoral propaganda with political is under one of these categories it leaders assuming positions towards a is valued according to its level of social identification with the conflict. intensity: “low”, “medium” or “high”. Progressively opportunities for dialogue and the reach of agreements get narrowed. Definitions Violence: when measures of force take Difference: At this point of the part in the conflict, on its higher levels relationship, there is an identification an actor seeks to harm the counterpart. of initial differences. These are People might take the streets or iconic manifested in meetings and through buildings, there are massive arrests the press, but always in the form of and bloodshed. Events are classified exchange of opinions and points of as ‘low’, ‘medium’ or ‘high’ according view. Dialogue and the search for to the expansion of violence, quantity agreements is predominant. of people involved in the incidents and amount of cities involved, also Contradiction: the dialogue among with regard to the quality or impact actors is less fluid because the of the incidents concerning who was contraposition of interests and values affected (a relevant person in office or is deep, that is why it is difficult to a leader of protesters), and the degree reach for agreements. There are fewer of violence. In terms of military force, exchanges of ideas and points of view, exercises and readiness could be fewer meetings and encounters. On a considered as low level of violence. higher level of contradiction, there are official discourses and declarations on War: when there are direct actions the press disqualifying the adversary. of hostility, which involve the use of There also might be mutual accusations firearms or arm systems and operations

AN ANALYSIS OF THE CRISIS IN UKRAINE, AND ITS THREE CONFLICTS REVISTA - Bogotá (Colombia) Vol. 11 N.° 2 - Julio-diciembre 143 with at least a minimum level of There could be isolated points of operative and logistic capacity. In an struggle. It has an equivalent level to act of war, the weaker adversary has violence because it is assumed that the capacity to respond and react the motives that triggered the armed against an aggression, can even cause conflict are still latent. A successful harm to the stronger part; it can hold ceasefire generates proper conditions its position and counts with enough for dialogue by the reduction of support to sustain the fight4. violence and the promotion of trust.

Ceasefire: it is the result of a truce, so Accord: this point is reached once there it is only possible to get to this point is a document signed by the parties after a conflict had reached a level involved. It is equivalent to the level of war. Indicates that the parts have of polarization due to the difficulties been able to reach a minimum level inherent to the implementation of any of convergence allowing the ceasefire. accord and especially related to the

Table 1. Concepts, levels and values applied to the events considered for the curve of conflict Increasing intensity Decreasing intensity Concept Level Value Level Concept High 75 High War Middle 70 Middle War Low 65 Low High 60 High Violence Middle 55 Middle Ceasefire Low 50 Low High 45 High Polarization Middle 40 Middle Accord Low 35 Low High 30 High Contradiction Middle 25 Middle Normalization Low 20 Low High 15 High Difference Middle 10 Middle Reconciliation Low 5 Low Elaborated by the autor.

4 On the contrary, an act of aggression is considered as unilateral violence.

Cristián Faundes 144 REVISTA DE RELACIONES INTERNACIONALES, ESTRATEGIA Y SEGURIDAD development of mechanisms to lower narrated analysis of the results, events the tension. are organized in three phases and according to their link to each of the There is suspiciousness between the conflicts identified: internal conflict, parties and sometimes the will to Ukraine-Russia and West-Russia. These yield is limited to the steps taken by stages are presented corresponding to the counterpart. In a successful level an interpretative account of the events, of accord, the parts involved search according to the cycles observed. actively for solutions and involve the civil society in the processes. When The crisis begins when former the level of intensity of the conflict is , Viktor still high, the players are incapable to Fedorovych Yanukovych, discards engage with what is necessary to pacify signing an accord with the EU to the situation and solve the roots of the deepen trade. This event indicates the conflict, and so they might decide to existence of significant polarization appeal once again to the use of force. within the country towards ideological and economic frameworks available Normalization: situation tends to in Europe, once a series of popular stabilize around a point equivalent manifestations arise against the to “Contradiction”. The actors have political decision. Upon these actions, the will to search for agreements with other two conflicts arise at the end of the object to avoid future strokes. February, between Ukraine and Russia, The parts work mainly developing a and Russia and the West. The three of structure to regulate and facilitate their them show their interdependency until interactions. the internal conflict in Ukraine derives into a situation of low-intensity war by Reconciliation: the conflict is resolved. May, 2014. The parties involved have no particular divergences that could affect their relationship. Phase 1 - Internal crisis (21 Nov- 23 Feb).

As a consequence of President The three curves of conflict in Yanukovich’s resolution to back Ukraine during the 2013-2014 crisis. away from an agreement to further commerce with the EU, there began a This research covers developments series of popular manifestations in the from Nov 21, 2013 to the 23rd of May, main cities of the country opposing 2014. During the study 293 conflict this political decision. Soon enough events were identified, evaluated and polarization translated into violence in translated to quantitative data. In this the streets. The 21 of November marks

AN ANALYSIS OF THE CRISIS IN UKRAINE, AND ITS THREE CONFLICTS REVISTA - Bogotá (Colombia) Vol. 11 N.° 2 - Julio-diciembre 145 the starting point of a crisis in motion of the protesters on the streets, in that expands throughout Ukraine. this sense calls the attention the fact that they stood up for so many days Low intensity violence begins by the 25 in the cold. This fact indicate that the of November. Very soon, the mass media issues at stake were of high value, this compares the events with the Orange is the political and economic changes revolution. On the 26 of November related to the new terms of association the EU rejects Ukraine’s proposal to with the EU. begin talks simultaneously with Russia, a consistent indicator of the existence The lowest point of intensity during of an underlying conflict between the this phase came on 14 February with West and Russia. By the end of the the liberation of 234 protesters under month, more than 100.000 people arrest since December, protesters gather at Kiev’s main plaza rejecting respond returning public buildings President Yanukovich’s decision. back to authorities. 23 of February Since the 1st of December protesters marks another low intensity point, ask for the President’s resignation. when parliamentarians agree to name Police responds hardly and violence Olexander Turchynov as interim on the streets call the attention of the President of the country, one day international community. Incidents of after President Yanukovich had been particular violence take place on the removed from office by the Ukrainian 30th of November (2013), 19 and Parliament. The agreement reached 26 of January and 18, 19 and 20 of on 21 of February has merely a February, these dates mark the highest symbolic value, signed one day before points in the curve during this phase Yanukovich’s ousting. However, of the crisis. It is relevant to recall that it is relevant to highlight its fourth during the incidents in February, 39 paragraph: “Investigation into recent police officers are accused of shooting acts of violence will be conducted unarmed protesters, infuriating the under joint monitoring from the citizens against the government. authorities, the opposition and the However, later reports indicate police Council of Europe” (Agreement on officers were also targets. Ex-Ukrainian the Settlement of Crisis in Ukraine. Interior Minister, Vitaly Zakharchenko, 21 February 2014). However, a public declared to RT (“100% sure,” 2014) report consigned that, “Violations by that during these days, 86 officers were police, including torture and other ill- shot at, 14 of them died, and none of treatment as well as abusive use of force the officers deployed were carrying during demonstrations, continued their service weapons. From another with near-total impunity for the perspective it is relevant to note that perpetrators, while investigations into the violence and the Ukrainian winter such incidents remained ineffective” frost was unable to dissolve the will (Amnesty International, 2015).

Cristián Faundes 146 REVISTA DE RELACIONES INTERNACIONALES, ESTRATEGIA Y SEGURIDAD

Phase 2 - External conflicts arise, the the country. The government calls for curve diverges in three alternative ways to solve the crisis while (25 Feb – 3 Apr). asking the population not to support unconstitutional activities. Among these In the second phase of the crisis events of heightened polarization and the external conflicts arise with low levels of violence of the internal divergent intensities, reason enough conflict in Ukraine, a different kind of to analyze the crisis in Ukraine with situation begins to unfold in a disaggregating perspective, focusing initiating a second curve. separately into each of the conflicts involved. The crisis of political visions in The second curve with Russia and Ukraine activates other two underlying Ukraine. conflicts, between Kiev and Moscow, and the West and Russia. On the 26 of February clashes between pro-Russians and anti-Russians, take Internal place on the streets of Simferopol. Up to this point the events in Crimea The 22 of February, when President might be taken as part of the situation Yanukovich is removed from office, of instability taking place in the country people in the cities of Bila Tserkva, as a whole. The next day a pro-Russian Khmelnitsky and Zhytomyr bring down command expels the local government statues of Lenin. The next day pro- of Crimea and takes control of the Russians stand to protect the statue of capital’s parliament where they vote the Russian communist revolutionary in to approve a referendum to ask for Kharkiv. Even after the replacement of more autonomy for the region. Men the former president there is still unrest, on black uniforms with no flags or particularly in the Russian-speaking banners occupy other key buildings. regions of the country where there is These unidentified actors impulse opposition to the new administration the second phase of the crisis with in Kiev. On the 25th of February, BBC the manifestation of another conflict, News (“Ukraine crisis,” 2014) reports the one between Russia and Ukraine, that interim President Turchynov which involves different interests. warns of the dangers of separatism. At this point it is very important The situation worsens through the first to make clear that Russia denied days of March, by the 9th, activists have its involvement in the process that taken the streets of the main cities derived to the annexation of Crimea, along the country where clashes have in fact the first comments on the taken place between pro-Russians issue by the President of the Russian and pro-. Two days later, Federation, Vladimir Putin, were on Kiev have asked the OSCE to bring the 4th of March, denying the presence observers to the South and East of of Russian troops in the peninsula. But

AN ANALYSIS OF THE CRISIS IN UKRAINE, AND ITS THREE CONFLICTS REVISTA - Bogotá (Colombia) Vol. 11 N.° 2 - Julio-diciembre 147 one month later he stated on a live TV declared war (2nd of March). Military program that Russian units had been readiness and high levels of political involved in wresting Crimea from Kiev’s accusations situates the intensity of control, explaining that they had to the crisis at different levels of violence. take unavoidable steps, “so that events As Western powers begin talks with did not develop as they are currently Russia to lower the temperature of the developing in southeast Ukraine” (as crisis, Ukraine accelerates the pace of cited in Anischchuk, 2014). He stated its diplomacy to gain support for its that the annexation was partly triggered cause. On the 6 of March, the Crimean by NATO expansion, explaining that: Parliament decides the annexation of the peninsula to Russia and calls for If Nato goes there, Russia will be a referendum for the citizens to vote. pushed out from the area around This same day, Russia sinks one of its the Black Sea. This is pushing out own ships in a strategic area of the Russia from this important part Black Sea to block the exit of Ukrainian of the world. Let’s not be afraid vessels from the Crimean peninsula. of anything, but we should take The next day, the Russian government that into account, and respond declares it will back up Crimea if the accordingly. (as cited in Gentleman, region votes favoring the secession 2014) of Ukraine. Meanwhile, by the 9th of March, there are clashes between pro- On this phase, the intensity of the Russian and anti-Russian factions in the crisis oscillates between high levels of streets of the main cities in Ukraine and violence, to low levels of polarization. the country’s Prime Minister, Arseniy On the 28 of February armed men Yatsenyuk asks the people not to cede take the airports of Belbek and a single centimeter to Russia. Between Simferopol; only then, Kiev accuses the 7 and 17 of March, the intensity of Moscow of exerting an armed invasion the crisis keeps a level of polarization. and occupation. The next day, the Nevertheless, the referendum that Federation Council, approves a military takes place in Crimea on the 16th would intervention in Ukraine, invoking the change things forever. right to protect its interests and the Russian speaking population. This Official data informed that more than event activates the state of alert of the 82% of the population of Crimea military forces in Ukraine and stands participated on the referendum, as a warning sign to the West (see from which more than 96% voted below A Third Curve arises following in favor to the annexation to Russia. Russia and the West). Reiteratively the This will becomes a fact on the 18th of accuses Russian March when President Putin signs the intervention, even Prime Minister documents changing the flag of the Yatsenyuk stipulates that Moscow has Crimean peninsula, situating the curve

Cristián Faundes 148 REVISTA DE RELACIONES INTERNACIONALES, ESTRATEGIA Y SEGURIDAD at a high level of violence. This is the the relationship between Russia and latest peak of the curve analyzed during the West. On the first day of March, the period under scrutiny, since then, President Obama asks President Putin the intensity of the conflict between to withdraw Russian forces back to Russia and Ukraine oscillates between their military bases; this indicates a low level of violence and mid-level of the beginning of the second part of polarization, as it will be described later. the second phase of the crisis: when a third conflict unfolds. This one is a Ukraine’s immediate response to reaction to the successes of Russia the loss of territory is leaving the imposing its interests over the conflict Commonwealth of Independent between Moscow and Kiev. It takes States (under the lead of Moscow) on the form of a defense of Ukraine’s the 19th of March. Two days later, the sovereignty and territorial integrity government signs the political chapters alleging the illegality of the referendum of an agreement of association with to vote for the secession of Crimea and the EU and participates in military later the annexation of the peninsula exercises with NATO in Bulgaria (for by Moscow, but it is the interest to put two weeks, until the 4th of April). On a stop to Russian influence in Eastern the 30th, Minister of Foreign Affairs Europe. Other actors get involved as of the Russian Federation, Sergey well, such as NATO, Canada, Poland, Lavrov, suggests that the federalization OSCE, UN, EU, Switzerland and of Ukraine is the only way to settle France. This crisis maintains a relatively down its political crisis. The 3rd of low intensity in a state of polarization, April, military exercises take place in until the first days of April, when the Russian region of Volgograd, close it reaches a low level of violence, to the border with Ukraine. A few particularly because of accusations days later, when the internal conflict and preparations that indicate military of Ukraine revamps with separatist readiness. movements taking control of public buildings in Donetsk and Luhansk on On the 3rd of March, the Pentagon the 6th of April, some sources speak of announces that the US suspends every a ‘second wave’ of a special operation military ties between Washington held by the Russian Federation against and Moscow as a consequence of Ukraine. These events give way to the the Russian intervention in Crimea. third phase of the crisis. Two days later, NATO suspends the participation of Russia in what was A third curve arises following Russia going to become their first joint and the West. mission; suspends every meeting between military and civilian officers There is still more to elaborate on from Russia; and submits to review the second phase, particularly on every aspect of cooperation between

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NATO and Russia. Only political Russia for Crimea’s annexation, and the dialogue is open to Ambassador level following day sanctions Russian and officers. The following day, Canada Ukrainian citizens that participated in expels 9 Russian military officers the process. from the country who were invited as part of a professional exchange On the 21st, NATO’s Secretary program, also suspends every bilateral General, Anders Fogh Rasmussen, link with its armed forces including considers the crisis in Ukraine as a already planned meetings and military geopolitical game changer, for which exercises. This same day a European he settles three priorities for the allies Emergency Council condemns the to face Russia’s military aggression violation of Ukraine’s sovereignty and against Ukraine. 1. To reaffirm Allied its territorial integrity. By the 8th, OSCE commitment to collective defense. 2. monitors receive warning shots for their Strengthen support to Ukraine and the attempt to visit the Crimean peninsula. wider region. 3. “And to make clear On the 11th, Didier Burkhalter, leader that we can no longer do business as of the OSCE and Switzerland’s usual with Russia” (Rasmussen, 2014). Minister of Foreign Affairs, declares that the referendum in Crimea is On the 24th, Russia sanctions 13 illegal. On the 15th, Moscow vetoes a Canadian government officials UN resolution draft that criticized the as a reprisal for similar measures referendum about Crimea’s secession. implemented by that country. On the The next day, voters approve the 27th, UN’s General Assembly approves annexation to Russia, while the EU a resolution stating that Crimea’s declares it will not recognize the referendum is illegal. The following day results because it considered it illegal press reports indicate an increase of and illegitimate. The following day NATO military planes in Baltic States. NATO states that the referendum is The next day, NATO’s commander illegal and illegitimate as well. On anticipates his return to Europe from the 17th, the US imposes economic the US after non-confirmed versions restrictions to a Russian bank and 11 of movement of Russian troops along Russian citizens close to President the border with Ukraine. During the Putin (who allegedly had participated first day of April, after indicating no in Crimea’s annexation). The next signs of a Russian troop retreat, NATO day, NATO condemns Russia’s actions announces the suspension of every incorporating Crimea, while NATO type of military and civilian cooperation and the US highlight the importance to with Russia, and asks Generals and develop a joint international response Admirals of the Alliance to propose to the continuous violation of Ukraine’s ideas for the defense of members in sovereignty and territorial integrity. Two Eastern Europe. The following day, days later, the EU would also condemn Jane’s publishes satellite photos, which

Cristián Faundes 150 REVISTA DE RELACIONES INTERNACIONALES, ESTRATEGIA Y SEGURIDAD indicate an increase of Russian troops indicates that the crisis in Ukraine “is in Belgorod (located 40 km from to be blamed on those who organized Ukrainian border), authorized sources the state coup in Kiev” (as cited in estimate the presence of 40 thousand “Kiev says,” 2014). Although Moscow troops. The next day, Russia begins has denied its involvement with the military exercises in the Volgograd area separatists movements that emerge (385 km from Luhansk, Ukraine). after the Crimean issue, it’s eventual or possible participation in the conflict After NATO suspended relations with is still a debated issue, but there is Russia on April 1st, Russia calls its not enough evidence to directly or Ambassador to the entity, indicating strongly accuse Moscow. From a realist it has deliberately heightened the perspective, Eastern Ukraine is an area tension. The 4th day of the month of Russian geopolitical interest, where NATO’s deputy Secretary General, it has significant influence. The West Ambassador Alexander Vershbow, and Ukraine understand that Russia declares that Europe’s strategic has to be part of a solution. Therefore, environment has changed: “for 20 accusations against Moscow gradually years, the security of the Euro-Atlantic mutate to an active interest to involve region has been based on the premise the Kremlin in the search for solutions that we do not face an adversary to to the conflict. It has been necessary our East. This premise is now in doubt” to take note of these facts while (Vershbow, 2014). collecting the data for the research, as a consequence, the events related to the internal conflict have been isolated Phase 3 - Separatism spreads on from the conflict between Ukraine Eastern Ukraine and Russia, as well as from the one (6 Apr - 23 May). between the West and Russia.

While the Crimean issue is handled by Spread of separatism in the internal Russia as a fait accompli, the internal front. conflict in Ukraine revamps with the spread of separatism, particularly in Until the first days of May, the level the Eastern regions of the country. of intensity of the internal conflict As it was anticipated in this text, the oscillates between high levels of separatist movement that take part violence to a mid-level of polarization, in Ukraine starting on the 6th of April taking note that there are many is perceived as a ‘second wave’ of consecutive high points by the end of Russian activity against Kiev. While April. Ukraine and the West accuse Russia’s involvement in the confrontation, On the 6th of April separatist groups Moscow denies its participation and take control of public buildings of

AN ANALYSIS OF THE CRISIS IN UKRAINE, AND ITS THREE CONFLICTS REVISTA - Bogotá (Colombia) Vol. 11 N.° 2 - Julio-diciembre 151 cities in Donetsk, Luhansk and Kharkiv. about one hundred soldiers and a The next day, pro-Russians announce dozen vehicles. the formation of the Republic of Donetsk, calls for a referendum to be On the 17th of April the Geneva held on the 11th of May, to ask for the Accord was signed by representatives annexation to Russia and calls Moscow from Russia, EU and Ukraine to to send peacekeepers to warrant the lower tensions in the East. Despite feasibility of the process, but none of the agreement, violence continues; these occurred. On that same day, the separatists did not participate on the acting President of Ukraine, Oleksandr arrangements so they do not comply Turchynov announces prohibition returning public buildings nor with the to perform separatist activities in the disarmament. By the 22nd separatists country. The following day security are still active in at least 10 cities and forces from Kiev begin an antiterrorist towns occupying public buildings. By operation in Kharkiv. On the 10th of the 24th there are more than a dozen. April, the self-proclaimed Republic of On the 25th rebels take hostage eight Donetsk decides to create a People’s European military observers (one is Army. There are clashes in the streets liberated three days later, the rest by of Odessa on the 11th and violence the 3rd of May). On the 28th there is an spreads along the Donbass (which assassination attempt against the mayor includes the regions of Donetsk and of Kharkiv. The next day hundreds of Luhansk). On the 12th a security council separatists occupy public buildings in takes place with the President in Kiev, Luhansk and take control of the city. the next day an antiriot operation takes place in Sloviansk and activists clash in There are at least 40 pro-Russians Kharkov. By the 14th there are clashes dead in street clashes in Odessa on the in 9 cities of the Donetsk region and 2nd of May, most of them were burnt the city of Sloviansk refuses to transfer alive or suffocated to death in the taxes to Kiev. That same day, acting local House of Trade Unions, “many of President Turchynov signs a decree those who managed to escape the fire authorizing a special operation in the were then brutally beaten by armed East of Ukraine, which begins the 15th men” (“Odessa slaughter,” 2014)5. in Donetsk with quite an unexpected Struggles continue at least until the 4th. result: pro-Russian citizens capture On 2 May, a military operation takes

5 The Council of Europe declared on November 2015 that the official probes into the violent events in Odessa failed to comply with the requirements of the European Human Rights Convention, and reported that there was no substantial progress investigating the events. More in: Council of Europe Blasts Ukraine’s Investigations into Odesa Violence (2015, November 4). Radio Free Europe. Radio Liberty. Retrieved from: http://www.rferl.org/content/ukraine-odesa-fire-council-europe-report/27345601.html

Cristián Faundes 152 REVISTA DE RELACIONES INTERNACIONALES, ESTRATEGIA Y SEGURIDAD place in Kramatorsk; there are fierce but denied that Moscow was behind combats against separatists in an effort acts involving pro-Russia separatists (as to recover Slavyansk (in the region of cited in “Russia’s Vladimir,” 2014). Donetsk). For the first time during the crisis under scrutiny, a conflict reaches Ukraine - Russia. the level of war. Fighting continues at least through the 6th, according to The The conflict between Ukraine and Guardian (“Ukraine is close,” 2014) Russia is definitely deescalating in this this day the German foreign minister phase, from a low level of violence declares that Ukraine is a few steps to a mid-level of polarization. Amid away from a military confrontation. accusations from Ukraine on the alleged participation of Russia in the Afterwards, the situation recedes to Eastern separatist movement, Moscow a high level of violence. On the 7th states that if it is attacked it will have to the minister of defense of the self- respond. In this regard, foreign minister proclaimed Republic of Donetsk is Lavrov declares, “We will keep doing under arrest, this day there is also a everything possible to consecutively prisoner exchange between Ukraine’s protect the interests of Russian security forces and Donetsk’s auto diasporas both in Ukraine and in other defense. By the 8th Ukraine confirms states” (as cited in Pochuev, 2014). it will continue with the military Accordingly, Russia and later Ukraine operation in the East. On the 11th deploy forces close to the frontier, referendums about the autonomy heightening tensions. From another of provinces are held in Luhansk perspective, while Russia declares its and Donetsk, the following day the conformity with the Geneva Accords, Popular Republic of Donetsk formally accuses Kiev of violating it (on 21st requests the annexation to the Russian of April) and states on the 24th that Federation. Struggles continue as Ukrainian authorities commit a crime the EU and Ukraine rejects the if they use the army against their referendum, while Russia respects own people in the East. On the other its result. On the 17th the intensity hand, that same day Ukraine’s acting reaches a mid-level of violence when President, Oleksander Turchynov, said there is a roundtable on national in a national address that “Russia is unity in Kharkiv among separatist’s supporting terrorism in our country” (as occupations. However, this was only cited in Vasovic & Anishchuk, 2014). a parenthesis, because by the 22nd the On the 23rd, Russia begins military drills conflict increases its intensity again near the border with Ukraine, Russian reaching a low level of war, which is Federation, Defense Minister, Sergei maintained the following days. By the Shoigu, declared it was on response 23rd, President Putin believes Ukraine to “Ukraine’s military machine” and had descended into full-scale civil war, NATO exercises in Eastern Europe (as

AN ANALYSIS OF THE CRISIS IN UKRAINE, AND ITS THREE CONFLICTS REVISTA - Bogotá (Colombia) Vol. 11 N.° 2 - Julio-diciembre 153 cited in Vasovic & Anishchuk, 2014). The West and Russia. By the 30th, armed forces in Ukraine are in full military readiness. On the The tension between the West and 7th of May, President Putin calls Kiev Russia tends to lower initially along to stop the security operation held this phase reaching a mid to low in the East. The next day Ukraine’s level of polarization, from the 8th of government declares they have April through the 22nd. Afterwards, deployed 15.000 troops by the border the intensity of the conflict heightens, with Russia. On the 11th Moscow oscillating from a mid-level of opens a voting station for Ukrainians, polarization to a low level of violence, the next day an official statement until the 19th of May. By the end of the delivered from the Russian president’s period studied the relationship reaches press service tensions the relationship a low level of polarization with events once again because of an alleged occurred the 21st. interference in Ukraine’s internal matters by supporting the regions’ In general terms polarization builds autonomy process: upon the involvement in the situation in Ukraine, while NATO’s Secretary Moscow respects the expression General warns Russia not to interfere of will of the population of the in Ukraine’s internal affairs (8 of April), Donetsk and Luhansk regions and President Obama asks President proceeds on the basis that the Putin to end support to pro-Russian implementation of the results of the separatists (14 of April) and President referendums will be carried out in a Putin urges President Obama to civilised way, without any relapse of prevent a bloodshed in the country violence, through dialogue between (15 of April). On the 18th both parties representatives of Kiev, Donetsk and reach a mid-level of agreement with Luhansk. (“Moscow respects,” 2014) the Geneva Accords, but the Kremlin makes very clear it will not accept On the 19th, the Kremlin criticizes further sanctions against Russia. Ukraine’s military campaign in the On the 21st, US Vice President Joe Southeast as well as the process for a Biden personally brings to Kiev a new constitutional reform because of an package of nonlethal aid (including alleged lack of transparency. Two days medical supplies and helmets). The later, Russia initiates the retreat of next day, he declares that Russia military forces from Rostov, Belgorod should stop supporting “men hiding and Bryansk to their permanent bases. behind masks” (as cited in Smith, On the 23rd Kiev welcomes President 2014_a). Russian Prime Minister, Putin’s statement that the Kremlin will Dmitry Medvedev, replies stating that cooperate with authorities elected in Russia is “ready for unfriendly steps” (as the Ukrainian polls (held on the 25th). cited in Smith, 2014_b). On the 23rd,

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US troops arrive to Eastern Europe from the Northeastern territories and initiating a rotatory presence in the from two nuclear submarines from the region to perform training exercises in Pacific Fleet and the Northern Fleet. Poland, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia; On the 19th, Moscow calls for a Russia- Dutch fighters intercept two Russian NATO Council session about the bombardiers in its airspace; and sharp deterioration of the situation in Russian military units initiate drills by Ukraine (a week later there was still no the border with Ukraine. As previously date for the summit). The 21st Russia noted, the later were triggered as a initiates the retreat of military forces response to Ukraine’s deployment from Rostov, Belgorod and Bryansk to and NATO’s exercises in Europe. On their permanent bases. the 24th, President Obama, Prime Minister Cameron, Chancellor Merkel, President Hollande, and Prime Minister Conclusions Renzi decide to impose new sanctions against Russia; the US and EU impose To measure the intensity of the crisis sanctions on the 28th, but these are of in Ukraine it was necessary to observe such kind that on the 29th the stock separately each one of the interacting market in Moscow responds raising conflicts: the internal one, another its value. President Putin “responded between Ukraine and Russia, and the by threatening to reconsider Western other with Moscow and the West. The participation in energy deals” in the timeframe for the study was determined country (as cited in Tribune wire upon the crisis of the internal conflict, 21 reports, 2014). On the 29th Canada of November 2013 through 23 of May imposes sanctions as well, and US 2014, until the appearance of strong Secretary of State, John Kerry, declares signs that the situation was becoming that “Today, Russia seeks to change a war. In this regard, 293 conflict the security landscape of eastern and events were identified, evaluated and central Europe”, adding that whatever translated to quantitative data. The path Russia chooses, “the United result of the study is synthesized in the States and our allies will stand together “Curve of Conflict Intensity in Ukraine” in our defense of Ukraine” (as cited in shown in Graphic 1. Tribune wire reports, 2014). Phase 1 of the crisis (21 Nov. - 23 On the 8th of May, Russia activates Feb.) is almost exclusively an internal a nationwide military exercise issue, except for three events that simulating a nuclear attack. Leaders indicate the existence and interaction of the Collective Security Treaty of the other two conflicts with this Organization observed the drills one. The association agreement with with President Putin, it included the the EU and the impossibility of Kiev launching of intercontinental missiles to negotiate in parallel with Moscow

AN ANALYSIS OF THE CRISIS IN UKRAINE, AND ITS THREE CONFLICTS REVISTA - Bogotá (Colombia) Vol. 11 N.° 2 - Julio-diciembre 155 forces Ukrainians to a dilemma, they Ukraine has to do with the opposing are obliged to choose, so differences interests of Moscow to have a emerge. As choosing between one sovereign access to the Black Sea and model or the other is a matter of avoid Europe’s expansion, and Kiev’s vital interest, a greater part of the will to protect the country’s territorial population is not apathetic to what integrity. The conflict manifests at the is happening on the streets. On the highest level of violence, particularly other hand, the government loses during the last days of February, the first legitimacy upon the violence exerted days of March and at the middle of this while facing the protests. During this month, consigning the act of aggression stage, the crisis unfolds mainly at a performed by Moscow to annex low level of violence. It is relevant to Ukrainian territory. It has to be noted observe that in this part of the curve, though that the annexation of Crimea three out of six events that happen at a happened in less than twenty days high level of violence occur in a period avoiding the use of military force and of three months. The other situations triggering internal drivers that brought take place in a period of three days, legitimacy to the process. Crimea’s until institutional instruments allow annexation is also characterized by its the Parliament to solve the crisis of speed; Moscow outmaneuvered Kiev, legitimacy of the government by giving no time to oppose a proper assigning an interim President, rapidly response, not even with the help of the lowering down the tension. international community. The Kremlin acted undercover, giving support to The interaction of the three conflicts the local population, working with it, in Phase 2 (27 Feb. - 6 Apr.) create a in such a way that it seemed like the confusing meddle of events that are citizenry had effectively moved the impossible to analyze in one only pieces of the chess table. The element curve, this is why the author of this of surprise was key to avoid reaching study proposes to disaggregate the a level of war. Once the Crimean events to analyze the crisis in three peninsula issue is presented as a fait conflicts. Because of this decision, the accompli by the Kremlin, tension tends graphic splits into three different lines to lower down, abruptly after the 18th that reveal that the three conflicts have of March to a low level of violence until different manifestations during the the first days of April, and gradually crisis, with differing intensities. It is downwards to a high and mid-level of worthy of note that during the analysis polarization during the third phase. of the events in this phase the method applied reveals its value as a flexible The West-Russia conflict appears tool that allows the evaluation of a as a reaction to Russian maneuvers complex situation in a simple way. in Ukraine, as the West intends to The situation involving Russia and broaden its model of influence in

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Eastern Europe, Russia seeks to protect Geneva agreement generates reserved its area of influence. The tension optimism among the State actors heightens as Moscow succeeds making involved but not the separatists, who its interests prevail during Phase 2. were not involved in the negotiations. Most events happen at a high level of Therefore, the truce extends for less polarization particularly after President than three days. Putin signs the document annexing Crimea, and some even stretch to Complex situations, such as the crisis in higher intensity reaching a low level Ukraine challenge models of analysis, of violence by the first days of April. It but also pushes researchers to pursue might have been too risky for the West flexible applications of theory with to heighten the tension at that point; the aim to produce better and more Russia was responding accordingly accurate findings. The theoretical to the challenges and had a clear framework used in this research was determination of not turning back. This originally conceived as a tool to measure did not mean the West was going to a single conflict, but the results in this accept Russia’s decision so the tension paper open the door to use multiple oscillates during the third phase among curves of intensity to better understand the different levels of polarization and multifaceted struggles. Now there is a even low levels of violence. clear understanding that in the case of Ukraine there are three interrelated The internal conflict resumes in Phase conflicts. Regarding the circumstances 2 as well, in parallel to the events on terrain, the most relevant conclusion in Crimea, but with an oscillating is that none of the three conflicts is intensity. There is an interesting solved, their persistence should only continuum during the first days of become a warning sign about the March at a mid-level of violence, but situation in Eastern Europe, particularly somehow it defuses after a high peak taking note that the Strategic landscape on the 9th. Later the conflict revamps in the region has critically changed. on Phase 3, at a mid-level of violence, There is an urgent need to tackle these a direct consequence of the events divergences to avoid further tensions that happened earlier in Crimea, as the in the future, which might increase the Russia-Ukraine conflict unfolds with the damage of the relations. The academia annexation of the peninsula. On Phase might be able to produce valuable 3, internal secessionist movements inputs to help solve differences without find an opportunity to mobilize strains; it all depends on formulating the population towards achieving the proper questions. independence and the temperature of the conflict rises as separatists challenge Returning to the facts, by the end of the . During the November 2015, the threat presented last stage of events under scrutiny, the by ISIS has pushed the West and Russia

AN ANALYSIS OF THE CRISIS IN UKRAINE, AND ITS THREE CONFLICTS REVISTA - Bogotá (Colombia) Vol. 11 N.° 2 - Julio-diciembre 157 to work together, and this venture still latent conflicts that bind them in might work even though there are Eastern Europe.

Graphic 1. Curve of Conflict Intensity in Ukraine (21 Nov., 2013 ict Intensity i

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