BRIEFING PAPER Number 9205, 26 April 2021 Crisis averted in Ukraine? By Claire Mills Since March 2021 Russia has been building up significant military forces in Crimea and along the borders of Eastern Ukraine, prompting fears of further military action in the region. On 22 April 2021 the Kremlin announced, however, that those additional troops, which it said had been deployed on exercise, would be withdrawn by 1 May 2021. Russia’s justification for the build-up has been questioned and it remains to be seen whether Russia will fully implement its commitment to withdrawal. 1. What has been happening in Ukraine since 2014? Russian-backed separatists took control of Crimea and parts of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions of eastern Ukraine (the Donbas) in 2014. The 2014 and 2015 Minsk agreements remain the basis for the negotiation of a political solution to the conflict. In July 2020 additional measures were agreed by the Minsk Trilateral Contact Group, intended to strengthen, and ensure compliance with, the ceasefire. However, Russia has continued to integrate Crimea within Russian territory and to destabilise Ukraine. The Donbas is mainly Russian speaking and many of the population now have Russian passports after a concerted campaign by the Kremlin since 2019 to issue passports to Ukrainian nationals living in the separatist controlled areas of Donetsk and Luhansk.1 1 Since 2019 a reported 650,000 Russian passports have been issued, resulting in what some analysts have called a “passport protectorate”. See for example, “Russian passports: Putin’s secret weapon in the war against Ukraine”, Atlantic Council, 13 April 2021 www.parliament.uk/commons-library | intranet.parliament.uk/commons-library | [email protected] | @commonslibrary 2 Crisis averted in Ukraine? Source: Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik, April 2019 Fighting between Russian-supported separatists and Ukrainian government forces has continued in the Donbas, even though it has rarely been in the headlines. Russia describes the Donbas as a “domestic conflict” for Ukraine, despite the widespread allegations that it is behind the separatist unrest. The Kremlin has consistently denied its involvement, suggesting that any Russian fighters in eastern Ukraine are “volunteers”.2 Many people doubt whether Russian President Vladimir Putin genuinely wants to resolve the conflict, however, preferring to set up a ‘frozen conflict’ where the breakaway regions are maintained and supported by Russia, weakening the Kiev government and giving Russia strong leverage over its actions, including any future attempts to formalise Ukraine’s relationship with the EU and NATO. More recently President Putin said that Russia will defend Russian citizens abroad if they are seen to be at risk. Box 1: Further reading • Eastern Ukraine – dashed hopes?, House of Commons Library, June 2020 • Cool conflicts in Russia’s neighbourhood, House of Commons Library, January 2019 • Ukraine – summary of developments in 2015 and 2016, House of Commons Library, January 2016 • Ukraine: towards a frozen conflict?, House of Commons Library, September 2014 2. On the precipice of a new crisis? The Minsk Agreements, including the additional measures agreed in July 2020, remain largely unimplemented by both sides. Tensions have been rising over the last few months in the Donbas region between pro-Russian separatists and Ukrainian government forces. Ceasefire violations have become increasingly commonplace and casualties are on the rise. In 2021, 27 Ukrainian military personnel have been killed thus far. Several commentators have suggested that the imposition of sanctions early in 2021 on pro-Russian Ukrainian politician and businessman Viktor Medvedchuk, and the ban 2 “Ukraine conflict: Moscow could ‘defend’ Russia-backed rebels”, BBC News Online, 9 April 2021 3 Commons Library Briefing, 26 April 2021 imposed on three pro-Russian TV stations, have played a part in the deterioration of relations. As Sarah Lain of RUSI has observed: This deterioration was perhaps inevitable due to the lack of progress in the political and security dimensions of the peace process. Simply put, there has been little incentive for things to remain calm.3 2.1 The build-up of Russian military forces There have been growing fears that Russia is planning further military action in the region following several weeks of a military build-up in Crimea and along the eastern Ukrainian border.4 Russia has amassed an estimated 100,000 troops on the ground, a greater number than the force involved in the annexation of Crimea in 2014.5 Airborne troops, reconnaissance assets, infantry fighting vehicles, air defence systems, attack helicopters and a significant number of fast jet aircraft, including Su-30, have recently been stationed in Crimea and elsewhere in the region. Unconfirmed reports of Iskander short-range missiles being deployed to the region have been circulating in the media. The Ukrainian government has also asserted that Russia has been prepositioning fuel, ammunition and supplies in separatist held areas in the Donbas.6 Russia’s Black Sea fleet has also been reinforced with the addition of a number of small vessels, including landing craft and artillery boats, from Russia’s Caspian Sea Flotilla. On 14 April 2021 the Russian Ministry of Defence reported that the Black Sea Fleet, together with naval aviation and helicopters, would be taking part in live-fire exercises. The Russian government has since confirmed that the exercises will continue until the end of October 2021, with several sections of the Black Sea being closed to foreign vessels during this time. The Ukrainian Government has accused Russia of contravening the right to freedom of navigation under international law and described the move as an attempt to “usurp the sovereign rights of Ukraine as a coastal state”.7 By unilaterally closing access to the eastern Black Sea and the Sea of Azov through the Kerch Strait, it further prevents the Ukrainian navy from entering the Sea of Azov and accessing its ports. 3 “Rising tensions in Ukraine are not necessarily a prelude to renewed “hot” war, RUSI Commentary, 29 March 2021 4 The movement of such extensive military forces has been undertaken without prior notification, in contravention of the principles set out in the OSCE’s Helsinki Final Act, to which Russia is a signatory. 5 Estimates suggest 90,000 Russian military personnel were deployed in support of local pro-Russian separatist groups in the Donbas region in 2014/15 (“Russian forces in Ukraine, RUSI Briefing Paper, March 2015 6 “Russian troop build-up continues on Ukrainian border”, Jane’s Defence Weekly, 14 April 2021 7 “Ukraine accuses Russia of shutting off Black Sea access, harassing ships”, The Moscow Times, 16 April 2021 4 Crisis averted in Ukraine? Source: Wikipedia, User:NormanEinstein - Own work In anticipation of the exercises, four Russian Ropucha-class landing ships recently joined the Black Sea Fleet from Russia’s Northern and Baltic Fleets, marking what has been regarded as “the largest concentration of Russian amphibious forces in recent history”.8 2.2 What has Russia said? The Russian Government’s official line is that the movement of military personnel and assets has been related to ongoing training exercises. At the beginning of April 2021 President Putin’s spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, called the movement of troops an “internal affair” and that they were “not threatening anyone”.9 A week later the Russian Defence Minister, Sergei Shoigu, accused NATO of provocative actions by amassing troops and equipment on Russia’s Baltic borders and in the Black Sea region and suggested that the movement of Russian forces was to test combat readiness in response to “threatening behaviour” by the Alliance.10 Separately the Russian Government also accused Ukraine of preparing an offensive of its own to re-take the Donbas and stated that Russia would be forced to come to the defence of Russian citizens in eastern Ukraine if the fighting escalated.11 2.3 International reaction The build-up comes at a low point in the West’s relations with Russia. The last few years have been dominated by sanctions, tit-for-tat expulsions of diplomats and widespread condemnation of Russia for its destabilising actions on the international stage, the detention of opposition leader Alexei Navalny and subsequent crackdown on protesters. 8 “Update: Russia amasses amphibious forces in Black Sea”, Jane’s Navy International, 20 April 2021 9 “Russia’s internal troop movements should not concern other states, Kremlin states”, TASS Russian News Agency, 1 April 2021 10 “Russia says troop build up near Ukraine is a response to NATO”, The Independent, 13 April 2021 11 “Donbas escalation would be beginning of the end for Ukraine”, The Moscow Times, 8 April 2021 5 Commons Library Briefing, 26 April 2021 Since the annexation of Crimea in 2014 the West has been unanimous in its support for the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine and, as a result, a number of countries have supplied military assistance to the country’s armed forces. This is examined in: • Military assistance to Ukraine, House of Commons Library, April 2021 Reacting to recent events the members of the G7 issued a statement calling on Russia to de-escalate tensions in line with its international obligations. It went on to state: we reaffirm our unwavering support for the independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine within its internationally recognised borders. We support Ukraine’s posture of restraint. We underline our strong appreciation and continued support for France’s and Germany’s efforts through the Normandy Process to secure the full implementation of the Minsk agreements, which is the only way forward for a lasting political solution to the conflict. We call on all sides to engage constructively in the Trilateral Contact Group on the OSCE’s proposals to confirm and consolidate the ceasefire.12 Those sentiments were echoed by the NATO Secretary General during a press conference with the US Defense Secretary and US Secretary of State on 14 April 2021: This is the biggest massing of Russian troops since the illegal annexation of Crimea in 2014.