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Egypt Real Estate This report is prepared solely for the use of Ayman Taha Real estate / Egypt 21 February 2019 EGYPT REAL ESTATE SODIC p. 13 Sector undervalued; Strong disconnect between Rec: Overweight TP (EGP): 28.0 Upside (%): 80 fundamentals and stock valuations TMG p. 16 Real estate trading at a steep discount. Egypt realty stocks under coverage p. 3 Rec: Overweight TP (EGP): 17.5 Upside (%): 51 currently trade on an average EV of EGP900/sqm, a c25% discount to the 3-year historical average, and a c45% discount to the fair value implied from current land Orascom Development Egypt p. 19 prices and payment plans by NUCA (EGP1.6k/sqm). Operational metrics were on Rec: Overweight TP (EGP): 12.0 Upside (%): 66 the rise in 2018 (aggregate sales +20% y-o-y, receivables +50%), boding well for future cash flows, earnings (2019-21e EPS CAGR of 30%), and profitability (GPM Palm Hills Developments p. 22 to widen 4pp by 2021e), with post-floatation inflationary pressures expected to be Rec: Overweight TP (EGP): 4.20 Upside (%): 53 fully absorbed over the coming two years. However, several cities (North Coast, Alex Road) are under planning by the government, adding a layer of registration MNHD p. 25 approvals, possibly delaying construction by 1-2 years, but we see no risk to Rec: Overweight TP (EGP): 11.5 Upside (%): 55 names under our coverage, given they have approvals secured for 2-3 years. Emaar Misr p. 28 Further rate cuts, land expansions to drive sectorial rerate. Following the p. 3 Rec: Overweight TP (EGP): 5.50 Upside (%): 51 derating of the sector since Apr-18 to end-2018 (-55% on average), we believe there is significant upside in most of the real estate stocks (95% of market cap Heliopolis Housing p. 31 under coverage). This value, in our view, will be largely realised, on the back of: i) Rec: Overweight TP (EGP): 26.5 Upside (%): 22 further monetary easing, following the 100bps cut in Feb-19 (200bps expected during 2Q-4Q19), ii) land bank expansions, iii) continued strong presales and Amer Group p. 34 earnings, and iv) the imminent launch of commercial components. Rec: Neutral TP (EGP): 0.90 Upside (%): 1 Real estate cycle normalisation to start in 2019. Following 3 years of strong p.8 Porto Group p. 37 sales momentum (2015-17), the real estate sector started to show signs of a Rec: Underweight TP (EGP): 0.80 Upside (%): (18) more mature, stable market in 2018, and we expect 2019 to follow suit. We look for aggregate sales to remain flat y-o-y in 2019, with price hikes contained (13- Egyptian Resorts Company p. 40 15%), maintaining margins going forward. We do not view this negatively, coming Rec: Underweight TP (EGP): 1.60 Upside (%): (24) from a strong base, but more a sign of a maturing market reaching normalised levels. However, the improvement in LCY liquidity, in line with the declining Analysts interest rate environment, should lend support to real estate sales in 2019-20e. Omar El-Menawy | Analyst We believe the focus in the coming period will be on deliveries (2019-21e revenue Real Estate CAGR of 18%), cash flow generation (cEGP80bn of aggregate receivables +202 3331 8328 [email protected] collectable over 5-6 years), and cost control (margins around 40%). Sara Boutros | Senior Analyst Key Overweight calls. We like SODIC (on valuation, being the cheapest stock p. 5 Real Estate & Financials +202 3333 7227 within our coverage, trading at a 60% discount to peers in terms of EV/sqm), [email protected] TMG (provides long-term value and stability, with the largest backlog within our For U.S. persons, please see penultimate page for additional coverage of EGP41bn, backed by a strong recurring income portfolio at 25% of important disclosures. Commercial International Brokerage top line), and ODE (provides exposure to the recovering tourism sector – arrivals Company. (“CI Capital”) is a foreign broker-dealer unregistered in the USA. CI Capital Research is prepared by up 36% y-o-y in 2018 – with several catalysts on the horizon, including results of research analysts who are not registered in the USA. CI the newly launched O-West project). We also flag PHD as a key beneficiary from Capital Research is distributed in the USA pursuant to Rule 15a-6 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 solely by lower interest rates, with its leveraged balance sheet (D/E of 62% and interest Rosenblatt Securities Inc, an SEC registered and FINRA- cost at c38% of EBITDA). member broker-dealer. www.cicapital.com Please refer to important disclosures and analyst certifications on page 43 of this report This report is prepared solely for the use of Ayman Taha Egypt real estate Contents Contents Investment summary ..................................................................................... 3 Sector outlook ............................................................................................... 8 Companies................................................................................................... 12 SODIC ................................................................................................................................................... 13 Talaat Moustafa Group (TMG) ........................................................................................................ 16 Orascom Development Egypt (ODE) .............................................................................................. 19 Palm Hills Developments.................................................................................................................. 22 Madinet Nasr for Housing and Development (MNHD) ............................................................... 25 Emaar Misr .......................................................................................................................................... 28 Heliopolis Housing ............................................................................................................................. 31 Amer Group ......................................................................................................................................... 34 Porto Group ......................................................................................................................................... 37 Egyptian Resorts Company (ERC) .................................................................................................. 40 Disclaimer .................................................................................................... 43 21 February 2019 2 This report is prepared solely for the use of Ayman Taha Egypt real estate Investment summary Investment summary Triggers for the sector The market currently trades on an average EV of EGP900/sqm, at a c25% discount to the Further interest rate cuts (100bps cut 3-year historical average, and a 45% discount to the fair value implied from current land in Feb-19, 200bps expected during 2Q- prices and payment plans by NUCA (EGP1.6k/sqm). Operational metrics have been on the 4Q19) positively affecting cost of rise (aggregate sales up 20% y-o-y, receivables +50%), boding well for future cash flows, funding and project NPVs earnings (2019-21e EPS CAGR of 30%), and profitability (margins to widen 4pp by 2021), Land bank expansions, primarily with post-floatation inflationary pressures expected to be fully absorbed over the coming through NUCA’s auctions two years. Accordingly, we believe the market is assigning the sector unfair assumptions. Stronger-than-expected presales We believe we are entering a phase of the cycle where margins and payment plans are figures across the board likely to be maintained for the coming few years, with price increases in line with (or Launch of commercial land banks, slightly above) inflation. We expect aggregate sales to remain relatively flat y-o-y in 2019 primarily in East Cairo (EGP58bn, on our 2019 estimate), with an average growth rate of c3% y-o-y during that period. We do not necessarily view this negatively, especially coming from a strong base, Key risks but as a sign of a maturing market, reaching normalised levels. That said, we believe the Further delays in monetary easing, coming period will be more about deliveries (19-21e revenue CAGR of 18%), cash flow keeping cost of funding high, and generation (cEGP80bn of aggregate receivables collectable over an average of 5-6 years), resulting in further negative sentiment and cost control (margins to remain around 40% on average). on the sector Increased competition from smaller In the medium-term, we see increased populations in existing projects, on the back of the developers and the government, healthy delivery pipeline, likely to have a two-fold positive effect on future sales, with: i) affecting short-term market share higher inhabitancy likely to heighten demand for residential sales in these projects, and ii) Further economic reforms (taxation, higher occupancy rates in the projects likely to put a premium on pricing of the respective gas prices, etc.) piling more pressure non-residential components. Consequently, we anticipate the market will become more on end-consumers’ affordability selective in the coming period, favouring companies with a strong track record, a solid Further settlements or revaluations by financial backing, and clear earnings visibility. Additionally, we assign further value to the government on existing land banks names that provide decent exposure to the recovering tourism market. Coverage quantitative comparison Performance Market cap Upside Residual land bank EV/sqm Cash + receivables
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