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Mississauga Growth Forecasts Population Growth November, 2003

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Mississauga Growth Forecasts Population Growth November, 2003 Mississauga Growth Forecasts Population Growth November, 2003 City of Mississauga, Planning and Building Department The City of Mississauga retained Hemson assumption that the GTA economy is years, the supply of land available for Consulting Limited to prepare growth sound and will experience continued residential development, will be largely forecasts for the City. This brochure growth. As an important growth centre exhausted - particularly land for detached presents the forecasts of population by within the GTA, Mississauga will receive and semi-detached dwelling units. planning district to the year 2021. much of this growth, however, the amount of growth will be constrained by a During the forecast period, Mississauga The growth forecasts are based on 2001 dwindling supply of land. will make the transition from a rapidly Census of Canada results and City of growing green field community to a Mississauga land supply and While Mississauga still has several years maturing community. Growth rates will be development activity data. The popula- of rapid growth ahead, the City is entering much lower and redevelopment and infill tion estimates include the Census an important juncture in its development. development will become increasingly undercount which in 2001 was estimated In the past, Mississauga has had large important elements of growth. to have been 4.0% of the population. tracts of green fields available for development. These lands have largely Many of Mississauga’s planning districts Mississauga is part of the economy of the been developed, particularly those that are stable, developed communities. In Greater Toronto Area (GTA) and the were designated for residential develop- these communities some additional performance of that economy has direct ment. Lands in the Churchill Meadows growth may occur due to infill or consequences for growth in Mississauga. planning district are currently experiencing redevelopment projects. Other The forecasts are premised on the rapid development. Within the next few (Continued on page 3) Population Growth by Planning District, 2003—2021 Churchill Meadows 30,500 Meadowvale Village 13,300 City Centre 12,800 Lakeview 4,900 Hurontario 4,600 Central Erin Mills 2,900 Cooksville 2,700 Lisgar 1,800 Port Credit 1,500 East Credit 1,500 Fairview 1,200 Streetsville 1,000 Mineola 200 Dixie 0 Employment Areas 0 Clarkson-Lorne Park -100 Sheridan -800 Creditview -1,000 Erindale -1,100 Applewood -1,600 Mississauga Valleys -1,700 Rathwood -1,700 Meadowvale -2,900 Erin Mills -3,500 Malton -3,600 -5,000 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 Population Growth Mississauga, Leading Today for Tomorrow November 2003 City of Mississauga, Planning and Building Department Page 2 Table 1. Population by Planning District Planning District Mid-2003 Mid-2006 Mid-2011 Mid-2016 Mid-2021 Applewood 39,600 38,800 38,400 38,300 38,000 Central Erin Mills 33,100 34,100 35,600 35,800 36,000 Churchill Meadows 17,700 28,600 42,300 45,900 48,200 City Centre 8,500 11,600 16,700 18,900 21,300 Clarkson-Lorne Park 40,900 40,800 40,400 40,700 40,800 Cooksville 45,200 45,200 45,700 46,900 47,900 Creditview 12,500 12,300 12,100 11,800 11,500 Dixie 400 400 400 400 400 East Credit 59,600 64,200 64,000 62,400 61,100 Erin Mills 49,400 48,400 47,500 46,700 45,900 Erindale 24,000 23,600 23,100 23,000 22,900 Fairview 14,200 14,600 15,200 15,300 15,400 Hurontario 59,600 62,000 63,200 63,600 64,200 Lakeview 22,800 22,600 23,500 26,000 27,700 Lisgar 29,300 31,000 31,200 31,200 31,100 Malton 39,700 38,800 38,200 37,100 36,100 Meadowvale 43,000 41,900 41,000 40,500 40,100 Meadowvale Village 22,600 33,000 34,600 35,600 35,900 Mineola 10,000 10,000 9,900 10,100 10,200 Mississauga Valleys 27,800 27,100 26,700 26,400 26,100 Port Credit 11,200 11,100 11,100 11,900 12,700 Rathwood 32,400 31,800 31,300 31,000 30,700 Sheridan 18,100 17,700 17,500 17,400 17,300 Streetsville 12,000 11,800 12,100 12,600 13,000 Employment Areas 100 100 100 100 100 Total 673,700 701,500 721,800 729,600 734,600 Numbers may not add due to rounding. All forecasts are for mid-year. Population Growth 90,000 80,000 76,680 70,000 63,070 60,000 50,000 40,000 Population Growth 30,000 20,300 20,000 10,000 7,800 5,000 0 Projection Period 1996 - 2001 2001 - 2006 2006 - 2011 2011 - 2016 2016 - 2021 Total Population 638,430 701,500 721,800 729,600 734,600 November 2003 City of Mississauga, Planning and Building Department Page 3 (Continued from page 1) The population forecast for Mississauga is and by mid-2021 the population is communities with fewer opportunities for determined by applying projected average expected to be 734,600. As shown in the infill development or redevelopment, will household sizes to the housing forecast. bar graph on page 2, a high level of experience some population decline as a The average household size is expected growth is projected for the current 2001- result of smaller household sizes to decline from a present level of 3.11 to 2006 period with growth tapering off after anticipated over the course of the forecast 2.86 by 2021. In a city the size of 2006 and 2011. Mississauga, a decline of 0.1 persons per period. These patterns are reflective of a Population growth in Mississauga’s community reaching a state of maturity. household results in a reduction of nearly 20,000 people. planning districts will occur primarily in areas where a supply of land for new Traditionally, Mississauga has accounted As Mississauga makes the transition from development exists. As clearly indicated for a large share of the population growth a fast growing municipality to a mature in the graph on the front page, the growth in the GTA. The City’s strong employment urban community, the decrease in will be concentrated in Churchill Meadows base, diverse housing stock, community average household size and the aging Meadowvale Village and City Centre. amenities, transportation infrastructure population will have an increasing impact Intensification in the form of apartment and availability of green field land for on the population base. The rate of growth and medium density housing will occur development have all contributed to will slow after the next few years as the throughout the forecast period in areas Mississauga’s high rates of growth. In the remaining green fields available for with potential for this type of development two years since the Census, Mississauga ground-related housing approach build- - such as the City Centre. has accommodated about 15 percent of out. Mississauga’s population will be the GTA population growth. (Continued on page 5) approximately 680,000 by the end of 2003 Change in Population from 2003 to 2021 59,600 Hurontario 64,200 59,600 East Credit 61,100 17,700 Churchill Meadows 48,200 45,200 Cooksville 47,900 49,400 Erin Mills 45,900 40,900 Clarkson-Lorne Park 40,800 43,000 Meadowvale 40,100 39,600 Applewood 38,000 39,700 Malton 36,100 33,100 Central Erin Mills 36,000 22,600 Meadowvale Village 35,900 29,300 Lisgar 31,100 32,400 Rathwood 30,700 22,800 Lakeview 27,700 27,800 Mississauga Valleys 26,100 24,000 Erindale 22,900 8,500 City Centre 21,300 Sheridan 18 , 10 0 17,300 2003 Population 14,200 Fairview 15,400 2021 Population 12,000 Streetsville 13,000 11, 2 0 0 Port Credit 12,700 12 , 5 0 0 Creditview 11, 5 0 0 10,000 Mineola 10,200 400 Dixie 400 10 0 Employment Areas 10 0 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 Population November 2003 City of Mississauga, Planning and Building Department Page 4 The population density calculated as the gross population density and includes all land uses including vacant lands, non residential lands and roads. November 2003 City of Mississauga, Planning and Building Department Page 5 (Continued from page 3) but apartment growth is a more variable to decrease because there will be fewer The older districts typically located south factor and will have a greater impact on children in the average housing unit and of Highway 403 will experience slow the population density of an area. Future there will be many more elderly house- population declines due to the reduction in development will likely occur as infill, holds with only one or two persons. As the average household size and lack of redevelopment or high density housing well, the household size is typically land for development. Some areas will be developments - thereby increasing the smaller in apartments - about one person affected more than others - Malton and population density for a particular area. less than for a detached unit. Erin Mills are expected to experience the greatest amount of population loss. In 2003, Mississauga has a future The densities in the residential districts However, in the long term some older potential housing supply of over 67,000 range from 19.1 in Mineola to 72.6 in neighbourhoods in the south - such as units based on land supply and intensifi- Mississauga Valleys and a high of 90.8 in Port Credit and Lakeview - will begin to cation.
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