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Repo". No. J'^111q Inrcia Public Disclosure Authorized September 14, 1982 Industry Department South Asia Programs Department FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Document of the Wbrld Bank This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization. CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS Currency Unit = Rupees (Rs) June 1966 to mid-December 1971 : US$1.00 = Rs 7.5 Re 1.00 = US$0.13333 Mid-December 1971 to end-June 1972: US$1.00 = Rs 7.27927 Re 1.00 = US$0.137376 After end-June 1972 : Floating Rate Spot Rate end-December 1980 : US$1.00 = Rs 7.930 Rs 1.00 = US$0.126 Spot Rate end-December 1981 : US$1.00 = Rs 9.099 Rs 1.00 = US$0.110 Spot Rate end-February 1982 : US$1.00 = Rs 9.268 Re 1.00 = US$0.1079 WEIGHTS AND MEASURES All units are metric value, i.e., 1 ton = 2,205 lbs PRINCIPAL ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS BCCL = Bharat Coking Coal Ltd. BEML = Bharat Earth Movers Ltd. CCL = Central Coalfields Ltd. CFRI = Central Fuel Research Institute CIL = Coal India Ltd. CMPDI = Central Mine Planning and Design Institute CMRS = Central Mine Research Station ECL = Eastern Coalfields Ltd. GSI = Geological Survey of India IISCO = India Iron and Steel Company IR = Indian Railways MEC = Mineral Exploration Corporation NEC = North Eastern Coal Fields NTPC = National Thermal Power Company SCL = Singareni Collieries Company Ltd. TISCO = Tata Iron and Steel Company WCL = Western Coalfields Ltd. INDIAN FISCAL YEAR April 1 - March 31 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY INDIA COAL SECTOR SURVEY Table of Contents Page No. I. SUMMARY .................................................. 1 II. RESERVES AND EXPLORATION ................................. 5 A. Coal Reserve Estimates ............................... 5 B. Organization of Exploration Activities .... ........... 5 C. Operational Issues ................................... 7 III. COAL PRODUCTION .................... ..................... 10 A. Production Performance ............. .. ................ 10 B. Underground Mining .................................. 12 C. Open Pit Mining .................. .. ................. 14 D. Coal Beneficiation .......................---------. 17 E. Employment and Productivity .......... .. ............. 19 F. Operating Costs .................. 21 IV. TRANSPORTATION ............................................ 24 A. Recent Trends in Rail and Road Traffic and Loadings . 24 B. Causes of Decline in Rail Shipments ................. 27 C. Institutional Linkages Between Coal and the Railway Industry ................................... 30 D. Outlook for Rail Transport of Coal .... ............... 31 V. COAL PRICES AND FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE .................. 33 A. Coal Price Structure .............. .. ................. 33 B. The Relative Price of Coal ........................... 36 C. Financial Performance .............. .. ................. 38 D. Financial Position ............... .. .................. 41 E. Pricing Issues and Financial Outlook .................. 44 VI. COAL CONSUMPTION AND DEMAND/SUPPLY PROSPECTS .... ......... 51 A. Consumption ......................................... 51 B. Coal Imports and Exports ............................. 52 C. Demand Projections ..... .................................. 52 D. Coal Supply Prospects and Investment Requirements ... 55 E. Production Projections ............................... 63 F. Supply/Demand Balance and Prospects . ................ 64 VII. SUMMARY OF RECOMMENDATIONS ................................ 65 This document has a-restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization. ANNEXES Page No. 3-1 Indigenous Manufacture of Mining Equipment .... ............... 71 3-2 CIL Washeries - Capacity Utilization and Yield .... ........... 72 5-1 Income Statements ............................................ 73 5-2 Summary Balance Sheets ....................................... 78 5-3 Income Statement -- Coal India (Overall) ..................... 84 5-4 CIL and Subsidiaries - Summarized Balance Sheet .... .......... 85 6-1 CIL--Annual Capital Expenditures ............................. 86 6-2 Estimated Project Cost and Statistics--Singrauli Open Pits ... 87 6-3 Estimated Project Cost--Selected CIL Mines .... ............... 89 6-4 CIL Holding Company, Funds Remitted to Subsidiaries .... ...... 91 This Report was prepared following an IBRD mission to India to review the coal sector from October 20-November 15, 1980. The mission consisted of Mr. Z. Ecevit, Mrs. S. Sengupta, Mr. J.E. Strongman, (IBRD Economists) and Messrs. P. Dyson, K. Fordwor, A. Sharkey and C. Wardell (Consultants). COAL SECTOR SURVEY Preamble This report presents the findings of a coal sector mission that visited India for four weeks in October/November 1980. An earlier draft was revised in early 1982 following a mission in October 1981 to incorporate the more recent statistical data then available. Developments since that time, including the coal price increase announced in June 1982, have not been incorporated in this paper. The Report presents a general review of the sector and highlights a number of issues identified by the mission as important to the future development of the coal industry. While the Report covers a broad range of issues, it does not attempt to provide a fully comprehensive coverage of this large, complex sector. Rather it focuses on a number of selected issues regarding coal exploration, production, investment, trans- portation, consumption and pricing in India to provide recommendations to guide future actions in the sector. For many of the issues, the analyses and recommendations presented here should be viewed as a starting point for further analysis and refinement rather than as a final, definitive statement. INDIA COAL SECTOR SURVEY I. SUMMARY 1.01 India is the world's seventh largest coal producer, with a coal production of 114.0 million tons in 1980/81--nearly three times as large as any other developing country. Coal is essential to India's economic progress providing nearly 34% of India's estimated commercial energy consumption 1/ in 1980/81. India's coal reserves are large--over 80 billion tons of reserves and resources compared with about 6.5 billion tons of prognostic, recoverable hydrocarbon reserves. 2/ Coal is expected to play a critical role in providing a large share of commercial energy supplies for the next several decades. 1.02 This report addresses selected issues regarding the coal sector 3/ as part of the Annual Economic Report and as a contribution to overall Bank energy sector work in India. In particular, the report examines coal produc- tion and supply prospects and certain key issues relating to the coal supply/ demand balance, transportation, pricing, investment and finances as summarized in the following paragraphs. 1.03 The coal industry in India was nationalized in the early 1970s and the holding company, Coal India Ltd. (CIL) was established in 1975 along with its wholly-owned operating subsidiaries, Bharat Coking Coal Ltd. (BCCL), Central Coalfields Ltd. (CCL), Eastern Coalfields Ltd. (ECL), North Eastern Coalfields (NEC) 4/ and Western Coalfields Ltd. (WCL) and with the wholly-owned technical service group, Central Mine Planning and Design Institute (CMPDI). The Coal India Group accounted for 88% of India's coal production in 1980/81. The remainder was supplied by Singareni Collieries Company Ltd. (SCL)-9% and Tata Iron and Steel Company (TISCO)/Indian Iron and Steel Company (IISCO)-3%. 1.04 Following nationalization, coal production increased rapidly from 78.1 million tons in 1973/74 to 99.7 million tons in 1975/76 at which point production was plentiful relative to demand. Subsequently, however, production stagnated and fell behind demand, reaching only 103.9 million tons in 1979/80. Production increased sharply in 1980/81 to 114.0 million tons, but even so was still an estimated 10.0 million tons below estimated demand. From 1979/80 to 1980/81 pithead stocks of coal increased from 14 million tons to 16 million tons largely because of inadequate rail capacity for coal haulage which increased the severity of coal shortages. 1.05 Mining and operating conditions are very difficult for two of the col companies, namely BCCL and ECL. Both these companies operate mostly deep, 1/ In terms of coal equivalent. 2/ 1 ton of oil is equivalent to 2 tons of coal. 3/ This report does not address the lignite sector with a production and consumption of 3 million tons in 1980/81. 4/ This subsidiary has small mining operations, the complete statistics of which were not made available to the mission. Consequently, in some tables containing data for CIL subsidiaries, NEC is not mentioned. - 2 - underground mines with difficult geological conditions, including thick seams, sandstone roofs, spontaneous combustion and gassiness. These difficulties have been accentuated in recent years by power and explosive shortages, absenteeism, general labor unrest and mine floodings. From 1975/76 to 1979/80, BCCL's production did not increase above about 20 million tpy and ECL suffered a decline from 26 million tpy to 20 million tpy. In 1980/81, both companies achieved small production increases--to 21.4 million tons for BCCL and 22.7 million tons for ECL. 1.06 In contrast, WCL and CCL face much easier operating conditions. WCL